On any given day in the not-too-distant past, the Yankees, Orioles, Guardians, Dodgers, and Phillies might have laid claims to the best record in their respective leagues, yet all of them have also gone through recent stretches where they’ve looked quite ordinary — and beatable. To cherrypick just a few examples, at the All-Star break the Phillies had the major’s best record at 62-34 (.646), but since then, they’re 11-17 (.393). They were briefly surpassed by the Dodgers, who themselves shirked the mantle of the NL’s top record. Over in the AL, on August 2 the Guardians were an AL-best 67-42… and then they lost seven straight. The Yankees and Orioles have been trading the AL East lead back and forth for most of the season, but over the past two months, both have sub-.500 records. And so on.

At this writing, not a single team has a winning percentage of .600, a pace that equates to just over 97 wins over a full season. If that holds up, it would not only be the first time since 2014 that no team reached 100 wins in a season — excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, of course — but also the first since ’07 that no team reached 97 wins.

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The Orioles have had their ups and downs lately. Since July 7, a point at which they led the American League East by three games, they’ve gone 11-15, briefly dropping out of the top spot; as of this writing, they’re currently tied with the Yankees at 68-48. They were among the busiest teams ahead of the trade deadline, but their approach was geared more towards quantity instead of quality, as none of their additions rate as an impact player. They’ve dealt with a handful of injuries lately, but in the absence of infielders Jorge Mateo and Jordan Westburg, top prospect Jackson Holliday has gotten another look, and so far he’s been quite impressive.

Recalled on July 31, more than three months after his abortive first stint in the majors ended, Holliday made an immediate impact by hitting a 439-foot grand slam off the Blue Jays’ Yerry Rodríguez for his first major league home run. He went hitless the next day, then peeled off three straight two-hit games against the Guardians; in the last of those, on Sunday, he hit a solo homer off Gavin Williams. He homered in his next two games as well, with a solo shot off the Blue Jays’ Chris Bassitt on Tuesday and a two-run blast off Ryan Burr on Wednesday:

That last homer turned a 3-2 deficit into a 4-3 lead in what wound up as a 7-3 victory. It also made Holliday the youngest player in AL history to homer in three consecutive games, at 20 years and 247 days old. His streak ended on Thursday with an 0-for-4 night against the Blue Jays, though Holliday did collect an RBI for the sixth game in a row, driving in a run on a ninth-inning groundout.

Like teammates Adley Rutschman in 2022 and Gunnar Henderson in ’23, the 20-year-old Holliday entered the year as the consensus no. 1 prospect. He appeared on track to break camp with the Orioles given a strong performance in the Grapefruit League, but the team instead optioned him to Triple-A Norfolk in late March, with his limited experience at that level (18 games last year), at second base (26 games), and against upper-level left-handed pitching all apparently factoring into decision, as did a roster crunch.

Some of that may have been typical front office lip service, however, as Holliday didn’t have to wait long for his first opportunity. With a stretch of facing five lefty starters in their first nine games behind them, the Orioles called up Holliday, who had hit .333/.482/.595 through his first 10 games at Norfolk. He debuted on April 10 with an 0-for-4 showing against the Red Sox, striking out twice but driving in a run on an RBI groundout. Unfortunately, things didn’t get much better; in fact, he was utterly overmatched, going 2-for-34 with two walks and 18 strikeouts in 10 games. While general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde both publicly expressed confidence that Holliday would still become an impactful player soon, the Orioles optioned him to Norfolk on April 26.

“I think the bright side of this is he got very intense, very specific feedback from major league pitching,” Elias said at the time. “He’s a brilliant talent and a very sharp kid, and I expect he’s going to go implement those adjustments really quickly. But we felt that Triple-A and steady playing time in Triple-A was the place for that.”

Back at Norfolk, Holliday put up respectable numbers (.252/.418/.429) before missing two weeks in June due to elbow inflammation. Just days after he returned, colleague Eric Longenhagen noted some disconcerting aspects of his performance:

In a way, the IL stint was comforting because it offered a potential explanation for why Holliday’s performance and ferocious bat speed had tapered off a bit. Holliday’s spray chart shifted away from his pull side and moved toward left field and the third base line in the weeks leading up to his shelving. He was inside-outing lots of contact the opposite way, including pitches on the inner third of the plate that he typically turns on, and it was taking what appeared to be an uncomfortable and excessive amount of effort for him to swing hard.

Once he came off the IL at Norfolk, Holliday showed more power, but he was limited to DH duty until after the All-Star break. On July 29, a day before the trade deadline, Longenhagen further noted some defensive concerns, writing in his Top 100 Hitting Prospects Update, “He looks rather rusty and uncomfortable, if not still compromised to some extent. He’s making a lot of routine plays look harder than they need to be, and the quality of his hands has backed up.”

“[H]e does look like a 20-year-old lost in a sea of adults, and it’s become tough to make a strong argument for Holliday over James Wood right now,” concluded Longenhagen, who downgraded Holliday from a 70 FV prospect to a 65, which allowed Wood to take over the top spot on The Board.

While all of that was going down, so were Orioles infielders. On July 23, Mateo — who has made a team-high 52 starts at second base plus three at shortstop and two in center field — injured his left arm in a collision with Henderson. The 29-year-old infielder was diagnosed with an elbow subluxation and placed on the IL, while prospect Connor Norby was recalled from Norfolk. Five days and five starts at second base later, Norby was traded to the Marlins in a deal for Trevor Rogers; that same day, Mateo was transferred to the 60-day IL.

The next day, Holliday returned to the majors, but immediately before he hit his grand slam, Rodríguez drilled Westburg — who has made 64 starts at third base, 35 at second, and one at shortstop — in the right hand with a 95-mph fastball. The 25-year-old infielder suffered a fracture, interrupting a breakout season in which he’s hit .269/.317/.497 (129 wRC+) with 18 homers and earned All-Star honors. The hope is that he’ll be back in mid-September, in time to get tuned up for the postseason, but even given the Orioles’ depth, his absence looms large.

Those injuries have cleared a path for Holliday to get a long look at second base. As he’s still climbing out of the statistical hole he dug in April, his overall slash line looks pretty grim (.177/.239/.387, 76 wRC+ in 67 plate appearances), and the sample sizes for his splits are even smaller. But with the caveat that these numbers mostly haven’t reached the point of stabilizing, within those numbers we can at least discern some positive trends:

The first big thing to note beyond the fact that he’s been productive since returning is that Holliday has gotten his strikeout rate under control. Mind you, he has struck out at least once in all 18 of his games, putting him one short of Austin Jackson’s 2010 record of 19 consecutive games with strikeouts to start a career.

The second thing to note is that Holliday has taken a more aggressive approach at the plate since returning. While he’s swinging at more pitches both in and out of the zone, he’s coming up empty less often:

I don’t think there’s much to be gleaned from his pitch-type splits since returning given that Holliday has seen fewer than a dozen examples of every offering besides four-seamers and sliders. His four homers have each come against a different pitch (four-seamer, slider, curve, cutter), so that’s something.

The third thing to note is that Holliday’s contact since returning has been loud:

Of Holliday’s 20 batted balls since returning, 14 have been hard-hit balls with exit velocities of 95 mph or higher, 11 of them 100 mph or higher. Granted, six of those hard-hit balls have been grounders (five of at least 100 mph), but he’s turned three into singles, and even with his high groundball rate, he’s barreled half a dozen balls in this short time. His total of 36 batted balls is still short of the point of stabilization, but those barrel and hard-hit rates would both rank among the top half-dozen if they were maintained over (much) larger samples.

One more note on batted balls: Where Longenhagen was concerned with how often Holliday was hitting to the opposite field, his 55% pull rate and 20% oppo rates since returning — not to mention the fact that all four homers were to his pull side — suggest he’s moved past that issue. As for his defense, Holliday did make a nice pick to start what upon review proved to be a game-ending double play on July 31, but the jury is still out on his transition.

It’s premature to suggest Holliday has everything ironed out, but at the very least, he’s given the Orioles a most welcome boost. That still leaves them with numerous issues, however. Prospect Coby Mayo, who is no. 12 on The Board, was called up on August 2 to play third base, but so far he’s 0-for-13 with eight strikeouts; this week’s signing of free agent J.D. Davis, who hit just .218/.293/.338 (85 wRC+) for the A’s and Yankees, to a minor league contract suggests Mayo’s leash may not be long. Heston Kjerstad, who landed on the 7-day concussion IL after being beaned by a 97-mph Clay Holmes fastball on July 12, is back on the IL with lingering concussion symptoms after going just 2-for-18 upon returning. The reserve outfielder fitting into his roster slot, Austin Slater, has hit just .205/.331/.250 (77 wRC+) in his three-team odyssey this year.

More concerning is the rotation, which has already lost Kyle Bradish and John Means to Tommy John surgery and Tyler Wells to UCL brace surgery, and which has been lit for a 5.19 ERA and 4.66 FIP since the start of July, and has a 5.10 ERA even after the acquisitions of Rogers and Zach Eflin. Earlier this week, Grayson Rodriguez landed on the IL due a mild right lat strain. “He’s going to miss some time,” said Hyde. “We’re going to shut him down for a little while, get him some rest and recovery, get him some rehab. I think we’re optimistic about it.” His absence leaves a rather unimposing rotation behind ace Corbin Burnes, with Rogers and Eflin joined by Dean Kremer and swingman Albert Suárez. Of that group, only Burnes has an ERA below 4.00 since the start of July, with Kremer and Suárez well above 5.00. Fortunately for the Orioles, the Yankees have problems of their own, including a rotation that’s been even worse (5.59 ERA, 4.81 FIP) since the start of July, and unlike Elias, Brian Cashman did nothing to try to fix it at the deadline.

At this point, the division race looks like one between two rather flawed teams, and any advantages with regards to depth and player health could swing the balance. After a rough start, Holliday is not only fitting in but making an impact, and that can only help the Orioles.

Josh Bell has only been a Diamondback for a little over a week, but in that short time, he’s made his presence felt. Acquired just ahead of the trade deadline in a deal with the Marlins, Bell stepped in for the injured Christian Walker and homered twice in his debut against the Pirates on August 2. On Wednesday he did it again, bashing two homers in the nightcap of a doubleheader against the Guardians in Cleveland. The Diamondbacks swept the pair of games, moving them into a tie for the National League Wild Card lead and into second in the rapidly tightening NL West race.

Indeed, the Padres aren’t the only NL West team that has gained traction in both races lately. With the sweep, the Diamondbacks have now won 18 of their last 23 games, a run that has rocketed them from two games below .500 to 11 games above while nearly tripling their odds of making the playoffs:

That 18-5 record is the majors’ best in that span, 2.5 games better than the Padres (14-6). The Diamondbacks have done it against a mix of good teams (the Braves, Guardians and Royals occupy playoff positions at this writing, and the Pirates have been right around .500) and not-so-good ones (the Blue Jays, Cubs, and Nationals). Not only are the Diamondbacks now tied with the Padres for the Wild Card lead, they’ve trimmed the Dodgers’ division lead to three games — as close as they’ve been since April 24 — which has really goosed their Playoff Odds. Read the rest of this entry »

With Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. both out for the season, the Braves haven’t been anywhere close to full strength for awhile, and the injury bug has continued to bite, with Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies sidelined for extended periods as well. In a dispiriting sequence involving the rotation, Max Fried returned from the injured list on Sunday (and was roughed up), then Reynaldo López landed on the IL. With so many absences, the cracks are beginning to show. Where the Braves occupied the top National League Wild Card spot for a good long time, they entered Tuesday having fallen into a three-way tie with the Diamondbacks and Padres.

The not-so-well-kept secret about the Braves is that since finishing April with a 19-9 record, they’ve gone just 41-42, and haven’t been more than a game over .500 in any calendar month. They went 13-14 in May, 14-13 in June, and 12-13 in July; so far, they’re 2-2 in August. Here’s how they now sit via the standings and our Playoff Odds:

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2:01	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! It’s been awhile since I did one of these thanks to even more July chaos than usual — Replacement Level Killers, trade deadline and Hall of Fame stuff. Glad to finally squeeze one of these in.

2:02

Jay Jaffe: On Friday, I wrote about the Padres gaining ground not just in the NL Wild Card race but also the NL West race https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-padres-have-tightened-the-nl-west-race…. I mention that because I’ve got a piece on the Braves that’s about to run, looking at how they’ve slipped into a three-way tie atop the NL Wild Card standings.

2:03	Jay Jaffe: And yesterday I took a look at the news regarding yet another lost season for Mike Trout, which put me in mind of Ken Griffey Jr.’s rough run in his 30s https://blogs.fangraphs.com/with-another-lost-season-for-mike-trout-a-…

2:03	Jay Jaffe: (grateful for the ZiPS help from Dan Szymborski on that one and yes, i’ll take the over on the post-2024 Trout projection)

2:09

Jay Jaffe: As noted above, I wrote about the Padres on Friday. They’ve dealt with some significant injuries but this has turned out to be a deeper squad than last year, in part because they somehow lucked into a Jurickson Profar career year after a season that might have been a career-ender, and because the Jackson Merrill center field move has paid off so well. I thought they did very well in augmenting their bullpen at the deadline. Long story short, the Padres’ strength in scouting under Preller, and his philosophy about trading them instead of getting too attached to them, has allowed him to reinforce his rosters and remain competitive even while dealing with some limitations.

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Mike Trout will not play baseball again this year. Last Thursday, Angels general manager Perry Minasian told reporters that the three-time MVP, who underwent surgery to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee on May 3 and who had recently begun a rehab assignment, had suffered another tear of the same meniscus. The 32-year-old slugger will need a second surgery, and once again, he’s finished for the season at far too early a point. Where we once anticipated speaking of Trout’s place in history alongside the likes of Willie Mays or Barry Bonds, his difficulties staying on the field during his 30s bring another superstar to mind: Ken Griffey Jr.

Trout played in just 29 games this season, the fewest in his career even including his 2011 cup of coffee. He was off to a flying start, albeit something of an uneven one, hitting 10 homers and stealing six bases. His home run total up to the point of his injury put him on a 55-homer pace, at the very least giving him a shot at topping his career high of 45 homers, set in 2019. Thanks to a more aggressive mindset, his stolen base total not only matched what he did from 2020–23 combined, it put him on pace for his first second 30/30 season; he hit 30 homers and stole 49 bases in his 2012 rookie season, then narrowly missed repeating in ’13 (27 HR, 33 SB) and ’16 (29 HR, 30 SB).

Despite those gaudy counting stats and the milestones they might portend, Trout was hitting an out-of-character .220/.325/.541, driven by an absurdly low .194 BABIP, 104 points lower than any of his seasons besides 2011, and 141 points lower than last year, when he played 82 games and totaled 362 plate appearances. His batting average and on-base percentage were respectively 43 and 42 points lower than the post-2011 career lows he set last year, but his .321 ISO was comparable to the marks he put up in 2017, ’18, and ’20 (he had 241 PA that year). Though he wasn’t hitting the ball as hard as usual, his .273 xBA and .599 xSLG suggest that he would have wound up in more familiar territory, slash line-wise. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been a good week for the Padres. As usual, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller was busy ahead of the trade deadline, and while this year’s additions weren’t as eye-catching as the 2022 trade for Juan Soto — what on earth possibly could be? — Preller greatly improved a middling bullpen and additionally fortified a thin rotation, damn the cost of the prospects dealt along the way. Meanwhile, the Padres increased their chances of reaching the playoffs by taking a pair of games from the Dodgers in San Diego, wins that not only pulled them closer to first place than they’ve been since early May, but also clinched them the season series between the two teams, giving them the potential tiebreaker if they were to finish with the same record as Los Angeles. All of this, along with the fact that the Padres have one of the league’s easiest remaining schedules, gives them their best shot at pulling off an NL West upset since Preller took the reins late in the 2014 season.

On Tuesday, hours after the team added relievers Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing from the Marlins and starter Martín Pérez from the Pirates, the Padres rallied to overcome the five first-inning runs that the Dodgers hung on starter Matt Waldron. Down 5-3 entering the bottom of the ninth, Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill both homered off Blake Treinen, and after Robert Suarez buzzsawed through the Dodgers on 10 pitches in the top of the 10th, Donovan Solano’s bases-loaded single plated the winning run. On Wednesday, the Padres tagged Clayton Kershaw for seven runs (three earned) in his second start since returning from shoulder surgery; San Diego even snapped Kershaw’s major league record of 423 consecutive starts with a strikeout.

The wins gave the Padres a 9-1 record over their last 10 games; they strung together a season-high seven-game winning streak against the Guardians, Nationals, and Orioles from July 20–27, a span that included Dylan Cease’s no-hitter on July 25. With a 13-9 record for July on the heels of a 16-11 May and 15-13 June, San Diego has now put together winning records in three straight months, something it failed to do last year. (That team couldn’t even manage back-to-back winning months.) What’s more, the Padres sent the Dodgers to their first losing month (11-13) since April 2018 and trimmed the division lead to 4.5 games, the smallest it’s been since May 4, which coincidentally was the day they traded for Luis Arraez. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, when the Dodgers designated lefty starter James Paxton for assignment, general manager Brandon Gomes spoke of the team targeting “an impact-type arm” ahead of the trade deadline. Gomes and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman hit their target shortly before the 6 p.m. ET deadline on Tuesday, landing Tigers righty Jack Flaherty in exchange for a pair of prospects. Separately, the Dodgers also fortified their outfield depth by acquiring Kevin Kiermaier from the Blue Jays for lefty Ryan Yarbrough.

For all the talk about the top-of-the-line starters who could be moved before the deadline, the most discussed ones besides Flaherty — the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal, the Giants’ Blake Snell, and the White Sox’s Garrett Crochet — all stayed put, making the Dodgers’ addition of the 28-year-old Flaherty feel that much more impactful. To acquire the Los Angeles native — who was traded on deadline day for the second year in a row, after being dealt from the Cardinals to the Orioles last August 1 — the Dodgers parted with 21-year-old catcher Thayron Liranzo and 24-year-old shortstop Trey Sweeney.

After years of injuries capped by a subpar campaign that included the aforementioned change of address, Flaherty is in the midst of his best season in half a decade. Because he’s skipped a couple of turns due to injections of painkillers (not cortisone) to address recurrent lower back pain (one on June 10, the second on July 2) and then had Monday’s turn scratched in anticipation of his being dealt, his 106.2 innings is 1.1 short of the threshold to qualify for the ERA title, but his numbers are impressive. Among AL pitchers with at least 100 innings, he ranks seventh with a 2.95 ERA and sixth with a 3.11 FIP. Among all AL pitchers, he’s tied for 11th with 2.5 WAR, and among the pitchers traded this month, he’s second only to the more contact-oriented Erick Fedde (2.7). Flaherty’s numbers are a huge improvement from last year’s 4.96 ERA and 4.36 FIP in 144.1 innings. While putting up a 6.75 ERA post-trade, he was bumped from the Orioles’ rotation in mid-September and finished the season in the bullpen. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been awhile since we’ve seen the Royals act like contenders, but given that they entered the morning of the trade deadline with a one-game lead for the third AL Wild Card spot, the behavior is merited. On Monday they added righty starter Michael Lorenzen in a deal with the Rangers, and on Tuesday afternoon they swung deals for A’s reliever Lucas Erceg and White Sox infielder Paul DeJong. None of them are blockbusters, but they all fortify Kansas City’s roster, with the DeJong move a step to address a particularly weak bench.

The Royals acquired the 30-year-old DeJong, who’s making $1.75 million this year and has another $250,000 in bonuses within reach for attaining the 400- and 500-plate appearance thresholds, in exchange for 21-year-old righty Jarold Rosado, a reliever with the Royals’ A-level Columbia affiliate. The trade took place about four hours before the Royals were set to play the White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field, so DeJong joined his new club — his fourth since the start of the 2023 season — by walking from one dugout to the other.

Paul DeJong has walked over to the other dugout pic.twitter.com/Olm4BoirNH

— James Fegan (@JRFegan) July 30, 2024

Drafted and developed by the Cardinals, DeJong was once considered a foundational player. Coming off a 25-homer 2017 season in which he was the runner-up in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, he signed a six-year, $26 million extension, a record at the time for a player with less than one year of service time. He hit 30 home runs and made the NL All-Star team in 2019, but by May ’22, in the midst of his second consecutive season with a sub-.200 batting average, the Cardinals optioned him to Triple-A Memphis to revamp his swing. His performance rebounded, though not to his 2017–19 level, and so on August 1, 2023, he was traded to the Blue Jays. He went an unfathomable 3-for-44 for the Jays before drawing his release three weeks later, and then just 9-for-49 after being picked up by the Giants. For the season, he hit .207/.258/.355 (66 wRC+). Read the rest of this entry »

Despite trading ace Corbin Burnes, losing two members of their planned starting five to Tommy John surgery and then two others to injuries that have cost them more than half a season, the Brewers are riding high atop the NL Central, holding a seven-game lead over the Cardinals and Pirates entering the morning of the trade deadline. They’ve already used a club-record 16 starters this year, including righty Aaron Civale, whom they acquired from the Rays earlier this month. On Monday they added the man who’ll likely be no. 17, righty Frankie Montas, whom they acquired from the Reds in a rare intradivisional swap in exchange for outfielder Joey Wiemer and righty reliever Jakob Junis.

Beyond the fact that Montas was healthy enough for the Brewers to move forward with the deal — his 15-day stint on the injured list earlier this year was for a forearm contusion caused by a line drive — and can take the ball every five or six days, it’s not clear yet what the Brewers see in the 31-year-old righty. His performance has fallen off considerably since he finished sixth in the AL Cy Young voting in 2021 on the strength of a 3.37 ERA, 207 strikeouts, and 4.0 WAR for the A’s. Dealt to the Yankees as part of a six-player trade on August 1, 2022, he pitched poorly down the stretch before being sidelined by shoulder inflammation, and after undergoing arthroscopic shoulder surgery in February 2023, was limited to a 1.1-inning cameo in last season’s penultimate game.

When Montas hit free agency, the Reds took a flier, signing him for a $16 million guarantee in December, with a $14 million salary this year, a $2 million buyout on a $20 million mutual option for 2025, and some small performance and award bonuses tacked on as well. There are no bad one-year deals, it is often said, but this one for Montas — with his 5.01 ERA and 4.91 FIP in 93.1 innings — rates as a disappointment. Play the arbitrary endpoint game, and you can find a pretty decent stretch: From May 29 through July 4, in seven starts totaling 36.1 innings, he posted a 3.72 ERA and 4.20 FIP. But since then, he’s been lit for 16 runs in 16 innings over three starts. Only twice all season has he put together back-to-back quality starts (six or more innings, three or fewer earned runs). Read the rest of this entry »