With the calendar turning to late May, it feels strange to say that the industry is still a long way from making 2021 draft selections, but the new July start date isn’t the only unique thing about this year’s draft. The ongoing global pandemic and the larger player pool created by last year’s draft being reduced by nearly 90% have created additional challenges in terms of preparation for July 11. With just under two months to go before teams are on the clock, I got it touch with a number of key decision makers around baseball to get a better sense of what’s going on behind the scenes.

Dealing With the Information Deficit

The pandemic has created a variety of evaluation challenges, but few have had a greater impact than the lack of a 2020 Cape Cod League and the highly abbreviated and lightly attended high school summer showcase season. These lost opportunities to see potential draftees play against the best of their peers have left teams without one of their loudest data points as they begin to print out magnets and line up their boards. “With college hitters, we’re no more certain than we are with the high school guys right now,” said one National League scouting executive. “We just don’t have the big data advantage for college players that we used to.” One American League executive agreed, but not to the same extent. “We are poised for more uncertainly and variability due to the smaller track records, but it’s not as uncertain as I expected it to be.”

Another AL decision maker said that last year’s limitations in terms of scouting have provided an unexpected benefit in terms of dealing with this year’s challenges. “We learned in last year’s draft that there is still a lot of information out there and ways to evaluate it that we hadn’t taken advantage of in the past,” he said. “We were forced in 2020 to be open to different ways and now it’s become a new way of doing things.”

One of the most impactful innovations over the last decade has been that of the draft model. Nearly every team utilizes some kind of projection and/or scoring model that takes in historical performance and other, more advanced data sources and spits out some measure of draft value, but one American League evaluator worried that the lack of recent information will result in a garbage in/garbage out scenario. “We have guys who had a rough three weeks in 2020 but are playing well now,” he said, lamenting the incredibly small samples produced by the pandemic. “I think a lot of models are just going to have to be thrown out the window this year.”

More Players, More Problems

There were 1,217 players selected in the 2019 draft. In 2020, the number was reduced to 160. That leaves over 1,000 potential draftees who returned to school, transferred to new schools or entered the college ranks with the plan of impressing scouts for next year. That sudden glut of players was expected to complicate matters greatly, but late into the 2021 scouting season, teams have found the suddenly larger player pool isn’t impacting their processes as much as they initially anticipated. “There’s a handful of guys who had to come back that are going go in the first two days,” said one National League exec. “But I don’t think it’s that many of them; we’re certainly not going to see some flood of 22-year-olds,” he concluded, noting that age plays a massive role, as teams are weighing date of birth more heavily than ever. “Once you’re 22, the bloom is off the rose,” another executive added. One American League executive agreed that the large player pool will have little effect early, but should begin to play into later selections. “It doesn’t feel like twice the number of players, for whatever reason,” he concluded. “I do think that it’s going to become a factor from rounds six through 20, and I think that teams are still figuring out how to draft when it’s down to 20 rounds.”

Early Disappointment in the New Draft League And Combine

Another twist to this year’s draft has been the establishment of the new MLB-organized Draft League, which was cobbled together from six Northeast teams that lost their minor league affiliation, as well as a medical and performance combine in late June. These were generally seen as positive developments when initially announced, but the list of players participating has left much to be desired for teams looking for more information.

Some are taking more of a wait-and-see approach to an event that is just getting going and is dealing with the same real-world challenges everyone has been grappling with over the last year and a half. “I would expect it to take some time with people easing into it,” said one American League executive. “Let’s get past the pandemic before we start judging.” Another AL decision-maker agreed. “I think the intention is good and it’s going to take some time to make it normal for people,” he explained. “It’s all new and it’s going to take some time. It’s not a bust as much as it’s a work in progress.”

Still, some are disappointed by the early returns. “There are names going into that Draft League and they aren’t even Day Three options,” said one exacerbated National League executive. “You’ve got guys that are barely playing for their college team this spring but they are going to play there. Going would be a waste of time for us.”

“I’ve just kind of blocked it out,” said a senior American League scout. “I’m just going to the Cape.”

Multiple insiders brought up the CBA in terms of the combine, saying that how everything unfolds in this year’s negotiations will help define the future efficacy of the event. Others argue that as with other sports, many top prospects will continue to avoid something that can only create negative value for them. “If you are an agent with a brain, why would you send your player there?” Asked one National League executive. “All you can do is lose money.”

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The best word to describe how teams are approaching the 2021 draft might be “uneasy.” Teams lean hard on things like the Cape Cod League and summer high school showcases, which the industry lost in 2020 due to the pandemic. Track records of performance are hard to come by because of it (as well as other factors), and teams are desperate for anything resembling a sure thing.

Entering the season, Vanderbilt right-hander Kumar Rocker looked like one of these few sure things. A highly regarded prep arm out of Georgia in 2018, he might have slipped into the first round that year had he not made it abundantly clear that without an elite bonus offer, he had every intention of honoring his college commitment. He’s succeeded since arriving in Nashville, stepping right into the weekend rotation and throwing a no-hitter in Super Regional Play as a freshman. With athletic bloodlines and the much-desired combination of above-average stuff and command, Rocker entered the season as a strong candidate to be selected by the Pirates with the No. 1 pick come July.

He’s certainly held up his end on a performance level. Through 13 starts for the Commodores, he’s struck out 118 over 81 innings and allowed just 47 hits and 25 walks. But on a stuff level, it’s been a different story, as the average firmness of Rocker’s fastball has ranged by as much as six miles per hour on average from one start to the next. He is still expected to be a top-five pick at minimum, and that 1–1 slot is in play for him as well, but for teams looking for consistency, the varying fastball is a bit troubling. For teams looking for answer as to his ability to handle a pro workload, it’s even more so.

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Chin Music returns, whether you like it or not. The traveling co-host chair finally leaves New York and arrives in Tempe, Arizona. And with the great Eric Longenhagen becoming the first repeat co-host of the show, most of the discussion revolves around baseball below the big league level. We begin by trying to set realistic expectations for Seattle’s rookie crop before delving into what is becoming a very complicated 2021 amateur draft. Then we are joined by special guest Alex Coffey of The Athletic, who explains what is actually going on with the Oakland Athletics’ ballpark situation, and boy is it complicated. Then it’s emails on TV broadcasts, housing for minor league players, and some cultural moments before we depart. As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening.

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There’s a very messy cubby hole in my desk crammed with various pieces of baseball-related paper. It’s filled with things like the roster sheets from the international workouts where I saw Rafael Devers and Marcos Diplán, an Arizona Fall League lineup that included George Springer, Joc Pederson and Nick Castellanos, and various other ephemera. Why I hold on to this stuff is beyond me, but I was looking for something the other day and found an ancient wonder — the starting lineups for the April 29, 2004 Midwest League game between the Yankees’ Battle Creek team and the A’s Kane County club. The game was more than 17 years ago now, but I remember the day very well, as it featured left-hander Steven Bondurant taking a no-hitter into the ninth.

The discovery, and the recent rash of major league no-nos, led to an afternoon spent down an internet rabbit hole as I furiously tried to find a box score from the game (hat tip to Cory Schwartz at MLB for his assistance) and, ultimately, to me tracking down Bondurant himself. As it turns out, he also recalls that day quite well. “I remember it like it was yesterday,” he told me on the phone on Wednesday.

There’s a solid chance you’ve never heard of Bondurant. He never reached the major leagues, and pitched his last professional game in 2007. A 15th-round pick in the 2003 draft out of South Carolina, Bondurant wasn’t the type of pitcher who made a lot of prospect lists, as he was a fifth-year senior sign who rarely cracked the 90s with his fastball. He readily admits that in today’s power-driven game, he might not have even gotten the opportunity to play professional baseball. “I was 85-88 mph in college, if that. The A’s at the time were focused on production,” said Bondurant. “They didn’t go off being 6-foot-4, 230 and throwing 95. I was the Friday night guy at an SEC school, threw strikes and got outs, and I think that went a long way at the time.” Read the rest of this entry »

On February 18, the Reds signed outfielder Tyler Naquin to a minor league contract with a non-roster invitation to major league spring training. It’s not the kind of transaction that generally generates analysis here at FanGraphs. It was just a standard depth move at the time, the kind of signing every team makes multiples of every off-season. Flash forward nearly three months later, and after an impressive spring training, Naquin is among the top 15 in wRC+ in the National League and part of the best offense in the senior circuit. The Reds utilize a daily strategy of trying to outslug their opponent to make up for what has been a miserable pitching staff, and the results so far have them hovering around .500.

Hot stars happen all the time, and while one week should be readily dismissed as a small sample not worthy of any kind of real scrutiny, a month merits looking into. Where did the player come from? Has anything changed? Is this sustainable? In Naquin’s case, the answers are a bit murky.

Naquin’s background is unique. The 2012 draft was weak in terms of college position players, but Naquin was nonetheless the second one selected at 15th overall. And while there was much debate over his ability to stay in center field, as well as his ultimate power ceiling, scouts were universal in their praise for the Texas A&M product’s hit tool after he led the Big 12 conference in batting average during each of his final two years as an Aggie.

His minor league career was filled with good-but-not-great seasons as he moved up the ladder (probably more slowly than Cleveland anticipated), but he got the call in 2016 and showed unexpected power on his way to 2.1 WAR in 116 games. It’s a figure he’s yet to match, as the following years were defined by injuries and inconsistent performance that saw him waver between fourth outfielder and Quad-A status. Out of time, and out of patience, Naquin was suddenly a six-year free agent looking for work this winter. The Reds offered him the best deal in terms of the combination of money and opportunity, and he’s certainly taken advantage of it. Read the rest of this entry »

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Chin Music is back on schedule. The traveling co-host chair stays put in New York as the sole proprietor of the Joe Sheehan Newsletter (that would be Joe Sheehan) joins me for a rousing discussion of baseball and, of course, other things. We begin by discussing the breaking news of Albert Pujols‘ release, John Means‘ no-no, parity in the standings and whether the San Francisco Giants are real. Sadly, we had a guest, an interview took place, and it was wonderful, but I regret to inform you that technical issues took it all away from us. The internet can be cruel sometimes. All is explained before the show starts. We finish up with emails on minor league assignments, the perks of working for a team, and how to get into baseball media, before delving into Joe’s career path and the wonderfully relaxing Pokemon Snap. As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening. Note: We had some audio issues with Joe, especially in the first segment; we did our best with it.

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Building off of yesterday’s American League conference call agendas, let’s move on to the National League and see what’s on the docket for the teams of the senior circuit.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• We’re over .500 and we’re banged up. This team is better than people on the outside thought. That said, I don’t think we’ll be exceptionally busy in terms of buying this summer. We’re not catching the Padres or Dodgers, and let’s not forget about the Giants. Let’s stick to the plan and just keep getting better long-term.
• The rotation has been up-and-down, and Corbin Martin is probably the only minor league piece with a chance to contribute in that area. Let’s get some ideas going as to how we get through 162 games with depth issues in that department.
• Let’s have some initial talks about draft strategy, as we’re picking sixth. It feels like there is a four-player tier at the top of the draft, so let’s see if there’s a tier-two player we like at six, or if we should be more creative and spread the wealth a bit.
• The offense overall has been good, but our infield is not hitting. There aren’t any immediate moves to make, but it sure would be nice to see Seth Beer get off to a nice start to gauge whether he can get some at-bats up here as a Christian Walker replacement.
• We love having the presence of Eduardo Escobar and Asdrúbal Cabrera, but there should be a market for both this July, and we should be listening. Let’s focus on arms in those discussions.
• The same goes for David Peralta, even though he’s been our second best hitter and is signed for next year as well. That extra year, which is a cheap one at that ($7.5 million), should help generate some interest.

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Throughout the season, most teams hold weekly meetings with their baseball leadership group, usually involving those at a director level or higher. These are often done via conference call or Zoom, as sometimes there is an executive with the team on a road trip and various scouting officials can be spread across the country (or even internationally) checking out players. Sometimes it’s a brief check-in just to see what everyone is up to, but around once a month, it’s time to dig deep on the road ahead and talk about some specific tasks to address needs and issues. While one month in the books is still a small sample size, it’s enough to get a vibe of where your team is at, and where it at least might be going, so I put together some bullet points for each team’s call this week. Read the rest of this entry »