Over the weekend, a friend of mine asked if ABS challenge data gets incorporated into WAR. (I have extremely cool friends.) It doesn’t, and I explained that while an individual challenge can absolutely change the course of an inning (or a game, or even a season), a single ball-strike call is of negligible run value out of context. If anything, we should be adding challenges to WPA, not WAR, except WPA only gets calculated on a per-plate-appearance basis, rather than a per-pitch basis.

At any rate, challenges aren’t like catcher framing in the early days. In 2008, the first year for which we have framing data, the difference between the best framer in baseball (Brian McCann) and the worst (Ryan Doumit, the poor guy) was 97.7 runs. At 10 runs per win, well, you can do the math on your own. Read the rest of this entry »

What’s the best pitch in baseball?

That’s a tough question. Whatever answer you come up with will certainly say just as much about your methodology as the pitch itself. That’s OK. We’re open-minded people here, and there’s more than one way to approach this problem. Read the rest of this entry »

In this trade deadline season where everyone’s within reach of a playoff spot, the Marlins were one of several teams that attempted to chart a middle path. Sure, we’ll sell off some of our best players — including, in Liam Hicks and Lake Bachar, some guys with plenty of team control left — but we’ll add in other trades and try to backfill those roles.

Miami’s big major league add was 26-year-old reliever Victor Vodnik, late of the Colorado Rockies. That sounds like damning with faint praise, and it is: Vodnik has a 5.25 ERA in 36 innings this season, and at the time of the trade, he was fifth among Rockies relievers in gmLI, which is the average leverage index when he enters the game. In other words, the Rockies don’t think Vodnik is a high-leverage reliever, or at least they hadn’t been using him that way.

Vodnik cost the Marlins third baseman Connor Norby, who was the less successful half of the Trevor Rogers trade, and pitching prospect Aiden May. Read the rest of this entry »

Having somewhat unexpectedly found themselves in a playoff spot at the deadline, the Diamondbacks have acquired outfielder Lars Nootbaar from the Cardinals in exchange for minor league pitchers Daniel Eagen and Sandro Santana, along with a player to be named later.

Cardinals Devil Magic has its tentacles in all sorts of places, but a key component of this witchcraft was an ability to conjure up certain types of players at will: innings-eating sinkerballers, pesky middle infielders, and corner guys who get called “professional hitters.”

Nootbaar was one of the last great hitterish Cardinal discoveries before this three-year playoff drought (and counting) set in. His peak came in 2023, when he achieved cult hero status in Japan for his role in helping the country win the World Baseball Classic. During that regular season, he hit .261/.367/.418, good for a 118 wRC+ and 3.1 WAR in just 117 games. He even stole 11 bases and made 67 starts in center field, opening the door for a future in which he could offer more than just good vibes and a bunch of walks. Read the rest of this entry »

The Toronto Blue Jays, wedged as they are between punting this season and reloading for 2027 and beyond, have traded reliever Jeff Hoffman to the Twins for three prospects — pitchers Dasan Hill and John Klein, second baseman Dameury Pena — plus $250,000 in international bonus pool space.

The Jays, ever tinkering, also sent left-handed pitcher Adam Macko to the Rangers for infielder Josh Smith and minor league righty Josh Stephan.

Hoffman is the best player on the move, and based on his landing spot, the likeliest to play a meaningful role in the playoffs, so let’s deal with him first. Read the rest of this entry »

The Baltimore Orioles have traded Adley Rutschman to the Boston Red Sox, along with Jake Rogers, for catcher Carlos Narváez, a PTBNL or cash, and three prospects: right-handed pitchers Anthony Eyanson and Kyson Witherspoon, and teenage center fielders Enddy Azocar.

Wow.

The first reaction to this deal can only be one of astonishment, on multiple levels. The trade itself is audacious, from both teams’ perspective. Even with his trade value and reputation at a low ebb, Rutschman’s talents are gigantic, and the return reflects that.

But this trade’s on-field impact pales in comparison to What It All Means. Rutschman, the no. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft, was the Orioles’ franchise player as they emerged from nearly a decade in the wilderness to become (if only briefly) a power player in the AL East. Seeing Rutschman in any other team’s colors will be weird enough to inspire the heebie-jeebies. Read the rest of this entry »

The Chicago White Sox are in a position to buy at the deadline for the first time in Chris Getz’s three seasons as GM. And Getz sure is getting his money’s worth. First Luis Castillo, then Huascar Brazobán, and now an outfielder: Brenton Doyle, late of the Colorado Rockies.

Doyle, 28, is not so much a unique player as the most extreme sustainable version of the all-glove/no-bat center field archetype. He’s making $3.1 million this year as a first-year arbitration guy, and he’s under team control through 2029. Getz parted with quite a bit to get him: right-handed pitcher Mason Adams and shortstop prospect Carlos Vielma.

Doyle was a fourth-round pick out of Division II Shepherd University; he’s that school’s only big leaguer in the past 50 years, but the name fits because he plays center field like a border collie. From Doyle’s debut in 2023 to the end of last season, he led all outfielders in FRV with 44. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Jacob Young, and Ceddanne Rafaela have been better on a per-inning basis, but that’s the kind of rarefied air Doyle has been playing in. Read the rest of this entry »

Hey, I thought the Blue Jays were selling! Apparently not, or at least only kind of. Barely 12 hours after sending Kevin Gausman to Chicago, Toronto GM Ross Atkins as replenished his team’s strategic splitter reserve by acquiring José Soriano from the Angels in exchange for three prospects: shortstop Arjun Nimmala, outfielder Eddie Micheletti Jr., and pitcher Angel Rivero.

The Blue Jays are eight games under .500, 13.5 games out of the division lead and 4.5 games out of the second AL Wild Card, with five teams to climb over before they reach the Guardians. They came into Deadline Day with a 5.2% chance of making the playoffs. I’m as gung ho about going for it as the next guy, but that’s not a position from which you want to be trading prospects for big league talent. Read the rest of this entry »

You and I might never know if the Rays could have outbid the Dodgers for Tarik Skubal, but with the no. 1 player on the trading block off the board, Tampa Bay swept into action within hours. For the cost of outfielder Aidan Smith, second baseman Émilien Pitre, and pitcher Gary Gill Hill, the Rays have acquired right-hander Freddy Peralta from the New York Mets. The Rays, in a departure from their habitual cheapskatitude, are assuming the remaining $2.47 million left on Peralta’s contract.

At the time of the trade, the Rays had a sizable-but-not-completely secure 3.5-game lead over the Yankees, both for first place in the AL East and the no. 1 overall seed in the American League. With the deepest farm system in the league to trade from, the Rays were wise to shore up their rotation, both for the stretch run and for the postseason itself.

The Rays have a pretty good staff already; they’re seventh in baseball in team ERA- and eighth in K-BB%. Their starters are fourth in ERA-. Tampa Bay sent not one but three pitchers — Drew Rasmussen, Nick Martinez, and closer Bryan Baker — to the All-Star Game last month. Read the rest of this entry »

If this trade deadline turns out to be a dud, you’re going to see a lot of people blaming the 12-team playoff format, which has flattened the competitive landscape around the edges of the playoff field. As of Saturday morning, 11 of the 15 American League teams have at least a 25% chance of making the playoffs. In the National League, there’s a bit more stratification, but nine of 15 teams have at least a 19% chance of making the playoffs. The few teams that are well and truly out of the race are so positioned for a reason — i.e. they don’t have many good players to sell in the first place.

You could use that as an excuse to sit out the deadline, or you could do what the Brewers and Guardians did: find another contender to trade with. The Great Lakes region’s two great perennial discount contenders hooked up on a four-player trade that sent catcher Bo Naylor and reliever Codi Heuer to Milwaukee in exchange for outfielder Blake Perkins and reliever Craig Yoho.

Credit to baseball ops bigwigs Chris Antonetti and Matt Arnold for finding a trade partner in this treacherous market, but this kind of swap does have its drawbacks. Namely: None of the four big leaguers on the move in this deal has been any good in 2026. Read the rest of this entry »