Author Archive: Michael Baumann

Sunday night’s encore performance of the Ray Kerr Variety Hour felt like a turning point in this postseason. The Braves had not only survived the Chris Sale bullpen fiasco, they were headed back home with the series tied and their two best starting pitchers lined up on full rest. The Dodgers have been on the ropes before during their back-to-back World Series-winning run, but those ropes felt especially menacing against Sale and the resurgent Braves.

Not to worry, Dodgers fans. Los Angeles escaped this crucible with a 3-1 win, and now sit one game from a third straight NLCS appearance. Regularly scheduled programming has resumed. Read the rest of this entry »

The Tampa Bay Rays won the most games in the American League this year while running the AL’s second-lowest payroll. That’s a feat of team-building, first and foremost, but it also speaks to how well their players dodged leaks. On offense, they had the lowest strikeout and whiff rates in the majors; their pitchers had the league’s lowest walk rate and just 18 blown saves. You can’t make mistakes if you’re the Rays.

That’s a well-worn cliché, but here’s a novel spin on it: You can’t make mistakes if you’re the Yankees either. Presumptive AL Cy Young winner Cam Schlittler did some terrific work in his first career playoff road start, and no one’s going to remember it, because the other eight guys in gray pajamas played like the ball was covered in dish soap in Game 2.

The Yankees committed three errors in the bottom of the first inning, and another in the fifth. The Rays scored five runs across those two half-innings, and there’s your final score: Rays 5, Yankees 2. Read the rest of this entry »

On April 12, 1862, a group of 24 Union spies — most of them volunteer soldiers, led by civilian James Andrews — commandeered a locomotive in Big Shanty, Georgia, and headed north. Their goal was to rendezvous with Union forces in Chattanooga, destroying rail and telegraph lines as they went. Andrews and his men ran out of fuel less than 18 miles from their destination; all of the raiders were captured and eight, including Andrews, were executed.

Some 164 years later and 15 miles southeast, another group of 20-odd belligerents from up north attempted a heist of their own. The Phillies had just stolen Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against the Braves, and a repeat performance would win them the series.

They fared little better than the Andrews Raiders. Michael Harris II put Atlanta ahead with a three-run first-inning home run, and Ray Kerr turned in an improbably spectacular spot start that kept the Braves on top the rest of the way for an eventual 6-2 win. None of Don Mattingly’s men were hanged, at least not yet. We’ll see what kind of a reception they get back home. Read the rest of this entry »

Big league front offices are, for the most part, populated by cowards. They say they want to win, but what they want most of all is to keep their jobs and not get yelled at. OK, maybe I came on too strong. That’s not cowardice, that’s just life under capitalism. A clever observer might note that one of the major sources of “getting yelled at” for major league GMs is the media — i.e., people like me. Maybe I should be nicer.

Two decades after the sabermetrics revolution shook up baseball’s norms, 30 GMs and/or Ps of BO have converged on a new conventional wisdom: You can never have enough pitchers.

During the regular season, sure. The 162-game slate is a siege by design. Teams play six times a week for six months, and most of the innings of most of those games are pretty pointless. Let’s say the average team plays about 55 defensive innings per week; the team’s top three starters and top two relievers might combine to throw, what, 25 of those innings? Read the rest of this entry »

A high-stakes game between two archrivals, featuring two of the best left-handed starters in the league against two extremely top-heavy lineups: It was always going to come down to fine margins. One pitching change, one missed call, one baserunning mistake.

In Game 1 between the Phillies and Braves, those margins were physically perceptible, as the two teams traded jabs for seven and a half innings, before Austin Riley bounced a game-winning three-run homer off the top of the right field wall at Truist Park. The Braves, 5-3 winners in the postseason curtain-raiser, are now on the verge of a date with the Dodgers in the NLDS. Read the rest of this entry »

It feels like ages ago that I wrote about Sandy Alcantara and how he’s on pace to lap the field in innings pitched for the second time in five seasons. Actually, it’s only been a week and change, and two very interesting things have happened in that time, meriting further exploration.

Those two things: Alcantara’s first two career saves. On September 16, two days after his last start and with the Marlins’ bullpen depleted, Alcantara came in to throw a clean ninth inning to preserve a one-run win against Arizona. He started as normal on Sunday against the Padres, and then, after two days’ rest, he locked down another one-inning save against the Cubs.

Alcantara is as pure a starter as you’ll ever find. His first eight major league appearances came out of the bullpen for the Cardinals in 2017. (I sometimes forget that the Marlins got Alcantara and Zac Gallen in the same trade.) It was nine years and 201 big league starts before Alcantara made another relief appearance. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another episode of Baseball Writer Notices Something Totally Mundane, Starts Thinking Way Too Hard About It, and Turns it Into an Article, brought to you by FanGraphs, WGBH Boston, and Viewers Like You. I’m your host, Bob Vila.

A couple weeks ago, I was at a Phillies-Astros game where Don Mattingly chose to pinch-run for Luis Arraez with Garrett Stubbs. It’s not every day you see a catcher pinch-run for a second baseman, though it made sense for reasons I’ll get into in a second. A week later, I was at home watching a Guardians-White Sox game, and Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt inserted David Fry as a pinch-runner for Patrick Bailey in a high-leverage situation.

Fry came up as a catcher, and while he’s made a handful of appearances behind the plate this year, these days he’s more of a four-corners bat-first guy. Even so, he still runs like a catcher. Still, Vogt — who’s a good manager with exceptional analytical integration with his front office — chose to put Fry’s leaden getaway sticks on the basepaths with the division title on the line. Read the rest of this entry »

When Aaron Judge is healthy, he’s the most dangerous hitter in baseball. Sometimes I get alarmed at how uncontroversial a statement that is; ours is a sport that so frequently humiliates those who make such sweeping, unequivocal judgments as those.

But the empirical evidence is what it is. Judge has played 150 or more games in a season four times in his career. In those four seasons, he’s led all position players in WAR four times and led the league in wRC+ three times. He’s been named AL MVP three times and finished second once, ahead of some real doozies: Cal Raleigh’s 60-homer year, Bobby Witt Jr.’s 10.5-WAR campaign in 2024, Shohei Ohtani’s best pitching season — in fact, a healthy Judge is the only thing that’s ever trumped a healthy Ohtani in an MVP race.

So again, it’s not uncontroversial to say that when Judge is healthy he’s the best hitter in the world. He has not, however, always been healthy. Least of all this season, when he missed three months with a broken rib. And now, the single-season AL home run king is back on the IL with a calf strain. The timing could not be worse. Read the rest of this entry »

On August 24, I wrote about the Phillies, who’d just completed a nine-game winning streak in terrific style. After dropping the first two games of an extended West Coast road trip, they ripped off another six-game winning streak, with a run of seven games against the first-place Braves in a 10-day stretch to come.

Things haven’t gone so well since. Over the past two weeks, the Phillies are 4-8, with five of those losses coming by a single run. The bullpen is showing fatigue cracks; Jhoan Duran has lost twice while pitching in non-save situations, while on Friday, three different Phillies relievers blew saves in the span of three innings.

One of the bright spots of the Phillies’ last homestand came on Labor Day, when Jesús Luzardo threw a shutout in a 1-0 victory over Atlanta, thus obviating the need for a bullpen. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been almost four months since one of my periodic check-ins on Sandy Alcantara. And everything’s going well. In May, I declared the 2022 NL Cy Young winner “part of the way back,” after he’d lowered his ERA from 5.36 in 2025 to 3.53 in his first 10 starts of 2026.

Alcantara has started another 21 games since that post, and the results have been similar, if not quite as good. Since May 21, Alcantara is 10-8 with a 4.01 ERA, with xERA and FIP marks in the low 4.00s as well. Even in 2022, Alcantara was never a big per-inning strikeout guy; he was fourth in the league in punchouts mostly on the strength of how many innings he threw. That year’s NL strikeout leader, Corbin Burnes, struck out 36 more batters in 26 2/3 fewer innings.

But Alcantara used his height and changeup and three-fastball combination to get lots of groundballs and allow basically zero homers. Thus: The no. 11 strikeout rate in the NL (out of just 22 qualified starters) led to the no. 2 ERA. Read the rest of this entry »