The stove is piping hot, my friends.

Just over 12 hours after Kyle Tucker’s bombshell signing with the Dodgers, Bo Bichette is also on the move. To the New York Mets, on a three-year, $126 million contract with opt-outs after each of the first two seasons. A shortstop throughout his career to this point, Bichette is expected to play third base for the Mets, who have a pretty solid incumbent shortstop already.

Bichette and the Dodgers had been in discussions over a short-term, high-AAV deal like the one Tucker ultimately signed, but Bichette, like most free agents, seemed to be interested in a contract with more term and overall value, but a lower annual salary. Back in August, I made a case for Bichette to cash in by pitching him as Trea Turner, but slow. And when America went to bed on Thursday, the smart money was on Bichette signing with the Phillies, who had already invested $300 million in Original Recipe Turner.

The Mets were reeling from Tucker’s rejection, amidst mortifying vagueposting from Steve Cohen. (Seriously, if you’re worth more than $500 million, you should not be allowed on social media.) But credit to Cohen and David Stearns, who suddenly found themselves with $220 million earmarked for Tucker, and no Tucker to spend that money on. They not only grabbed the next-best bat left on the market, in so doing they put a finger in the eye of their division rival. Read the rest of this entry »

I don’t know why, but I’ve spent more time thinking about the Miami Marlins than any other team this winter. It started when the Marlins came to the end of the season with a not-terrible 79-83 record — three games better than the Braves! — with some interesting pieces looking forward.

Then two Marlins showed up on my search for the next Geraldo Perdomo. Then I kind of talked myself into Miami being one lucky free agent signing from competitiveness — just like in 2002. But it turns out they’re not even making a token effort to spend. Then they traded from their surplus of pitchers to beef up their anemic lineup, which seemed like an OK compromise to make at the time even though it thinned out their greatest strength.

But then the Marlins thinned that rotation out even further, shipping Ryan Weathers to the Yankees for four prospects. So now the Marlins are in a position where Janson Junk is back in their presumptive Opening Day rotation. How fortuitous, because I’d been meaning to write about Junk for a while. Read the rest of this entry »

Things have been a little testy in Boston of late. It’s all downstream of the decision, in June, to trade — salary dump, really — Rafael Devers to San Francisco. I won’t relitigate the blow-by-blow, but Boston had just made the opportunistic signing of Alex Bregman and anointed Kristian Campbell as their second baseman of the future. Coupled with Trevor Story’s return to decentness after two years lost to injury, to say nothing of Marcelo Mayer’s rapid development, that left the Sox with more infielders than they could use.

Now, having seen what’s happened to Devers’ in-zone contact rate over the past two seasons, I think in the long run Red Sox fans will be happy they don’t have to watch the last eight and a half years of his contract up close. But for now, everyone’s nerves are a still a little raw. It’s always tough parting with a homegrown superstar, but the player Boston seemingly chose over Devers is quite good himself… oh wait, Bregman opted out of the last two years of his contract and signed with the Cubs. Read the rest of this entry »

The St. Louis Cardinals, or what’s left of them, have traded third baseman Nolan Arenado and cash to the Arizona Diamondbacks for right-handed pitcher Jack Martinez.

Arenado was one of the best players of the 2010s, a three-time National League home run champ and an elite defensive third baseman. In eight seasons with the Rockies, Arenado made five All-Star teams and finished in the top eight in MVP voting five times. He made the All-Star team and pulled off the Gold Glove-Silver Slugger double every season from 2015 to 2018.

On the strength of those performances, the Rockies signed Arenado to one of the richest contracts in baseball history — nine years, $275 million. After two years, they shipped him to St. Louis, where the Cardinals lived out the bargain of the quarter-billion-dollar extension: A couple great seasons, followed by gradual decline and now decrepitude, all before the deal runs out. Read the rest of this entry »

Over the weekend, the Chicago Cubs made the splashiest headlines of the new year by signing Alex Bregman — three-time All-Star, two-time top-five MVP finisher, and 2017 World Series champion — to a five-year, $175 million contract. It’s the second-richest contract signed this offseason in terms of total sticker price, and even after accounting for significant deferrals, it’s the second-highest AAV of any contract signed so far this winter.

I don’t want to rehash too much of what Davy Andrews covered in his writeup, but it’s an interesting move to be sure. The Cubs weren’t exactly hard-up for infield help, with Matt Shaw, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Hoerner (from left to right) occupying the three positions Bregman might conceivably occupy. Hoerner’s in his last year of team control, and you might argue that Shaw — my preseason pick for NL Rookie of the Year — disappointed a little in 2025. (I think a 93 wRC+ and 1.5 WAR in 126 games is perfectly OK for a rookie third baseman, though Bregman would likely represent a significant upgrade.)

But for the time being, both incumbents remain in the Cubs organization, leaving a bit of a logjam for manager Craig Counsell to sort out. Nevertheless, I know what the Cubs’ next move should be: Signing Brendan Rodgers. Read the rest of this entry »

Nobody’s having more fun this offseason than the Toronto Blue Jays, who celebrated their first pennant in 32 years (and near-miss at winning the World Series) by rearming and getting back into the fight. Midseason acquisition Shane Bieber re-committed for pennies on the dollar, and Toronto supplemented its rotation by landing the top free agent pitcher on the market, Dylan Cease, as well as KBO breakout star Cody Ponce.

The Jays then kicked January off by reaching back into the international market to purchase third baseman Kazuma Okamoto from the Yomiuri Giants of NPB. The Jays are already up to third in projected 2026 payroll, at least for now; the Phillies and Yankees are fourth and fifth, and both of those clubs have some rounding out of the roster to do before spring training.

Except apparently the Jays might not be done either. Read the rest of this entry »

This offseason has been reasonably busy in terms of actual moves, but light on rumors. One of the few exceptions has involved the Marlins’ Edward Cabrera. The Yankees’ interest in the 27-year-old right-hander has been consistent throughout the winter, but it appears they’ve been beaten to the punch.

Cabrera is indeed on the move, but he’s bound for Chicago, not New York, as Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation reported late Wednesday morning. The Cubs get a hard-throwing starting pitcher, fresh off a 3.53 ERA in 137 2/3 innings, with three years of team control remaining. In order to entice the Marlins to part with Cabrera, Chicago gave up three position player prospects: Owen Caissie, shortstop Cristian Hernandez, and corner infielder Edgardo De Leon. The Yankees, Jon Heyman says, were “never close.” Read the rest of this entry »

As you’re probably aware, the collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the MLBPA expires this year. Time flies, doesn’t it? The last time this happened, MLB locked out its players — the sport’s first work stoppage since the infamous strike that canceled the 1994 World Series.

The smart money is on there being another lockout next offseason; last time around, both sides did a lot of saber-rattling, but relatively little changed. We got the pre-arb bonus pool and some tinkering around the edges, but there was no salary cap, no abolition of the arbitration system, nothing that I’d describe as revolutionary. The duration of the lockout reflects that assessment; the stalemate lasted long enough to delay the season by a week, but not to cancel any games outright.

Having walked up to the verge of the abyss, peeked over the edge, and retreated, neither capital nor labor reaped a painful object lesson in the reality of all-out labor war. Last time that happened, it scared both sides into détente for 25 years. It seems reasonable to assume that either the players or owners might at least think about tickling the dragon’s tail next winter. Read the rest of this entry »

New Year’s Eve is a great time to agree to an eight-figure contract; you’ve already got champagne handy to celebrate. Congratulations, then, to Tyler Mahle and the San Francisco Giants on killing two birds with one stone.

Mahle is one of baseball’s great “I can fix him guys,” a status reflected in his contract structure: $10 million guaranteed over a single year, with an additional $3 million available in performance incentives. In 2020, the right-hander struck out 29.9% of the batters he faced over the pandemic-shortened season. The following year, he made 33 starts, threw 180 innings, and posted 3.9 WAR. Read the rest of this entry »

Another day, another Met out the door. Jeff McNeil, who to this point had spent his entire 13-year professional career in the Mets organization, is now an Athletic. The 33-year-old second baseman and outfielder is headed to Sacramento (or, to use the Athletics’ official branding, Parts Unknown), in exchange for 17-year-old pitching prospect Yordan Rodriguez. The Mets will pay down $5.75 million of the $15.75 million due to McNeil in 2026, and if the A’s decline McNeil’s club option for 2027, Steve Cohen will cover the $2 million buyout.

At the time of the trade, McNeil was the Mets’ active leader in games played, plate appearances, and hits. If you want a sense of how the Mets’ offseason is going, here’s a fun fact. In the past 30 days, the franchise has had four active leaders in those categories: Brandon Nimmo, who was traded to Texas just before Thanksgiving; then Pete Alonso, who signed with the Orioles during Winter Meetings; then McNeil; and now Francisco Lindor. All that upheaval without playing a single game.

All told, 16 of the 63 players who suited up for the Mets in 2025 have departed since the end of the season. Come February, “Meet the Mets” might be more than a song. They’re going to have to spend the first week of camp wearing name tags and doing icebreakers. Read the rest of this entry »