Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

The Austin Slater-for-Alex Young swap that the Giants and Reds made late Sunday night wasn’t going to grab many headlines. Slater is a platoon outfielder who’s struggled to mash lefties this year the way he had in the past, and Young is a funky, somewhat fungible lefty reliever; the Giants immediately sent him to Triple-A Sacramento upon completing the trade. That said, the notable thing about such a minor move is this: Because there are a bunch of teams trying to win, but few that have actually separated themselves from the pack, trades like this could rule the rest of the month.

Entering Monday, 11 of the 30 teams had playoff odds between 10% and 60%, bubble teams that could convince themselves to buy, sell, or do a little bit of both ahead of the July 30 deadline. That doesn’t even include the Reds, who may yet buy, as evidenced by their addition of Slater to add outfield depth. These teams almost certainly won’t go all in by the end of this month. Why risk trading away useful prospects only to miss out on postseason play anyway? Instead, the ones that decide not to punt on this season could elect to trade from positions of depth to patch up the holes in their roster.

The Giants could afford to move on from Slater because they have Luis Matos and Tyler Fitzgerald, two righty batters who are better defensive options than Slater in center field. Meanwhile, Slater should provide the Reds with much-needed outfield depth and allow them to option 25-year-old prospect Blake Dunn, who could benefit from getting regular playing time at Triple-A. On the flip side, Cincinnati could spare Young despite his strong Triple-A performance because it already had lefties Sam Moll, Brent Suter, and Justin Wilson in its bullpen. Conversely, San Francisco could use Young to share some of the load in the most-used bullpen in baseball.

On a larger scale, we may even see something analogous to the 2022 trade that sent Josh Hader from the Brewers to the Padres. Both teams were in a playoff position at the time of the deal, and the Brewers were actually in the better spot despite being the “seller” in the trade; they held a three-game lead in the NL Central when the trade went through. San Diego got a struggling Hader back on track and advanced to the NLCS, while Milwaukee missed the playoffs altogether. However, two years later, it’s become clear that the Brewers also improved because of the move. Robert Gasser, one of the two prospects they received in the trade, made his big league debut in May and was excellent across five starts before he went down with a season-ending elbow injury; he’s a key part of the Brewers’ future. The other prospect, outfielder Esteury Ruiz, ended up as Milwaukee’s most valuable return piece, even though he played just three games for the team. The offseason after acquiring Ruiz, the Brewers flipped him to the A’s in a three-team trade for All-Star catcher William Contreras, then with the Braves, and a solid reliever, Joel Payamps, from Oakland.

Trading major league players like Hader always contains the risk of upsetting the apple cart and messing with team chemistry, but if better fits come in return, that certainly can soften the blow of losing an All-Star. The Orioles’ surplus of position players naturally comes to mind, with Cedric Mullins, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, and Austin Hays all jockeying for playing time in the outfield, and Ramón Urías and Jorge Mateo blocking prospects Connor Norby and Jackson Holliday. Baltimore could choose to move any of these position players (excluding Holliday) considering it is in dire need of controllable starting pitching; Corbin Burnes is a pending free agent, and Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells are out of commission until at least the middle of next season.

Contenders with expendable pitchers are tougher to find, though the Mariners are the obvious exception. They have five solid starters and sorely need to upgrade their offense. It’s hard to imagine they would trade any of their top three guys (Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby), but Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo could and should be available for an impact bat. Seattle’s rotation depth beyond Miller and Woo is uninspiring, so if needed, president of baseball operations and master trader Jerry Dipoto could ask for a replacement fifth starter in the trade or swing a separate deal to get one. Perhaps the Mariners could swap strength for strength with the Orioles and also acquire lefty Cole Irvin in addition to a hitter.

More teams could use starting pitchers than the Mariners have to offer, though. Fortunately, fringier contenders like the Cubs, Mets, Blue Jays, and Rangers have a few possible trade pieces. Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, Yusei Kikuchi, Max Scherzer, Michael Lorenzen, and Andrew Heaney are all free agents after the year, and we might even see some non-rentals move, such as Jameson Taillon, Tylor Megill, Chris Bassitt, and Jon Gray. Giving up controllable starters likely would allow these teams to net a stronger return, and if they are worried about giving up starters who are under contract beyond this season, they could always replace them through free agency during the offseason.

That’s not to say teams won’t trade major leaguers for a package of prospects, because, as always, they certainly will do that! The White Sox and A’s, for example, won’t want major leaguers in return for anybody they trade. But teams who go right down to the wire in deciding whether to buy or sell almost definitely will try to contend again in 2025. For that reason, they probably won’t simply deal controllable players for anything other than controllable players who fit their roster a little bit better. And that sure could lead to some fun trades over the next three weeks, ones that are more impactful than swapping Slater for Young.

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

With less than four weeks to go until the July 30 trade deadline, now’s a great time to start taking a lay of the land and determining which teams will be buying, which will be selling, and which are caught in the middle. I looked at the AL teams on Tuesday, so today, let’s cover the NL clubs. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

With just four weeks to go until the July 30 trade deadline, now’s a great time to start taking a lay of the land and determining which teams will be buying, which will be selling, and which are caught in the middle. I’ll tackle the AL today and the NL on Friday. We’ve got a lot to cover, so let’s get started. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

Winning streaks don’t typically change the course of a team’s season. For example, the Dodgers are probably going to finish first in the NL West no matter how many games they win over the next week or so. The same would be true for the White Sox, just in reverse; they could rip off 10 straight wins and their outlook still would be about as bleak as it gets. And yet, in winning seven games in a row, the Astros have completely altered their trajectory for the rest of the season.

Incidentally, the last Astros loss came against those same abysmal White Sox on June 18, when Chicago rookie Jonathan Cannon was one out away from completing an eventual 2-0 shutout. After that game, Houston’s playoff odds fell to 29.3%, its nadir for the season. Since then, the Astros have won seven straight to pull within 3.5 games of the final AL Wild Card, and their odds to make the postseason are back above 50% for the first time since May 26. Now, entering this weekend’s series against the also-surging Mets at Citi Field, the Astros are just 4.5 games out of first place in the AL West.

It wouldn’t have been the least bit unreasonable to suggest prior to the winning streak that the Astros ought to be sellers at the deadline. Kyle Tucker had just been placed on the IL with a shin contusion that is expected to keep him out of the lineup until July. Cristian Javier and José Urquidy had just undergone Tommy John surgery, ending their seasons and making them non-factors for at least the first half of 2025. Houston had also just released veteran first baseman José Abreu, electing to eat the remainder of his disastrous contract that runs through next season rather than roster him any longer. This was a team that simply looked dead in the water, ravaged by injuries and underperformance and unable to get things going. Oh, how a week changes things.

No Kyle Tucker? No problem. All but four of the 14 batters the Astros have sent to the plate during the streak have posted a wRC+ above 100, with the quartet of Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and Jeremy Peña finally clicking at the same time. Impressively, the offense has caught fire despite homering just six times in the seven-game stretch; instead, Houston’s 20 doubles have kept the line moving.

In addition to the aforementioned Javier and Urquidy, the Astros also have been without Justin Verlander during this stretch, after they placed him on the IL with neck discomfort the day before their winning streak began. Instead, they’ve been forced to lean on a group of mostly unheralded pitchers, and boy have those arms delivered. Hunter Brown has turned his season around by revamping his pitch mix (Robert Orr and Ben Zeidman have a great look at it over at Baseball Prospectus), and Spencer Arrighetti just had the best start of his young career; he allowed three hits and no walks while striking out 10 across seven scoreless innings in Wednesday night’s 7-1 win over the Rockies. Ronel Blanco — Houston’s only pitcher who’s survived the injury bug this year — just keeps rolling right along and looks to be in prime position to make the All-Star team in his first full season, at age 30!

Now that the Astros are firmly on the buy side ahead of the deadline, barring something catastrophic to negate their winning streak over the course of the next month, how will they approach things?

Even with Javier, Urquidy, and J.P. France all out for the year, the Astros have rotation help on the way. Verlander and Luis García are expected back soon, with Lance McCullers Jr. not far behind and rookie Jake Bloss able to help out once he too is off the injured list. Verlander, Valdez, Blanco, McCullers Jr., and García would make for a strong playoff rotation (especially because Arrighetti, Bloss, and Brown will be in reserve). But, understanding that they’ve got other positions of issue, namely first base, why not acquire two Birds with one trade? Yes, I’m saying they should trade with the Blue Jays.

Toronto is on the other side of the coin, with its playoff odds down to 5.1% entering Thursday’s drubbing of the Yankees. Perhaps no team this season has been as disappointing as the Jays, whose best course of action looks like selling and rebuilding for the future.

Ideally, the Astros would take advantage of Toronto’s unexpected woes by trading for first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is under club control through the end of next season, while also adding a starting pitcher, though it’s unclear how willing the Blue Jays would be to deal Guerrero. Heck, his trade value alone feels extremely unclear: He’s having a very good year (133 wRC+) but still has infuriating batted ball tendencies, with a grounder rate above 50% and just 10 home runs. Teams will surely line up to acquire Guerrero if he were made available in the hopes that they can optimize his contact. The Astros especially would be drawn in by the thought of Vladito taking aim at the Crawford Boxes, thus giving them their best power threat at first base since Yuli Gurriel clubbed 31 homers in 2019 with the help of the juiced ball.

If we presuppose that the Blue Jays are, in fact, willing to trade Guerrero and retool for 2026 and beyond, knowing he could earn close to $30 million next season in his final year of arbitration, the biggest hangup would be agreeing on a price that the Astros would be comfortable paying, especially considering the state of their farm system. Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice described their farm as “below average on impact and an average one in terms of depth.” But when you consider the uncertainty surrounding Toronto’s top two prospects — Ricky Tiedemann, who hasn’t been able to stay on the field consistently, and Orelvis Martinez, who was just suspended 80 games for PED usage, halting his development — intriguing, higher-floor prospects just might be what the Jays are seeking. Among the players that Houston could offer are Bloss, Jacob Melton, and Joey Loperfido, who would be left without a spot if the Astros were to add Guerrero.

It’d be valid for the Astros to balk at that price, but what if they took on a steady-if-unspectacular starter like Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, or José Berríos along with Guerrero to tamp down the prospect cost? All three pitchers are good, but also on the wrong side of 30. If the Jays are going the path of retooling anyway, it may behoove them to remove a highly paid starter from their payroll because he probably won’t be around to make an impact on the next good Toronto team anyway. Sure, adding one of these starters would likely push Houston’s payroll to unforeseen heights, but the Astros should be game to take on such a contract if it means getting another solid starter without giving up as much in prospect value.

The Astros are having a weird season and may have a weird future as they move away from the risk-averse front offices of Jeff Luhnow and James Click. So they might as well lean fully into it and take some risky shots that could reap them major rewards.

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

The Mariners are in the driver’s seat in the AL West, with a 5.5-game lead over the Astros, and an 80% chance of making it back to the playoffs after narrowly falling short last season. And considering that they just played their 81st game last night, a tough 4-3 loss to the Rays in which they led 3-1 entering the eighth, now seems like a good time to evaluate what moves president of baseball operations — and notorious trader — Jerry Dipoto should make between now and the July 30 trade deadline.

Seattle’s success has been driven by its pitching, especially its starting five. Only the Phillies, Yankees, and Orioles have gotten lower ERAs out of their rotation, and after play concluded on Sunday, Mariners starters had pitched 23 more innings than Yankees starters in the same number of games. The M’s arguably have three aces in Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert; their fourth and fifth starters, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, aren’t too shabby either. Woo’s innings will probably have to be managed carefully down the stretch after he began the season on the IL due to forearm issues, which also have caused him to leave a few starts early. He was removed in the fourth inning of Monday’s game with right hamstring tightness, though it’s unclear yet how much time, if any, he will miss. Either way, the Mariners can withstand a limited or absent Woo because of how many innings the front three are able to cover.

Their relievers are generally doing their jobs as well, with the group ranking 13th in bullpen ERA entering Monday, and co-closers Andrés Muñoz and Ryne Stanek have done a solid job finishing off games. The depth of the bullpen was supposed to be a strength entering the season, but with Matt Brash and Jackson Kowar out for the season and Gregory Santos yet to throw a pitch this year, the Mariners are a little thin in the middle innings. Still, Santos is expected to start a rehab assignment soon, and the lower-level bullpen issues ought to be easy to address with minor moves between now and the trade deadline.

Seattle’s tepid offense, on the other hand, won’t be such a simple fix. Its 97 wRC+ ranked 17th entering this week, and the guys who were supposed to be carrying the lineup (Julio Rodríguez, J.P. Crawford, Cal Raleigh, and offseason additions Mitch Garver and Jorge Polanco) have all been below average over the first half of the season. Strong contributions from Luke Raley, Dominic Canzone, Dylan Moore, and Josh Rojas — along with a resurgence from Ty France — have kept the offense from being even more disappointing, but this lineup still isn’t good enough for the Mariners to make a deep playoff run.

Raleigh is the only Mariners player with at least 10 home runs at the halfway point of the season; he’s pacing for 26 homers, four fewer than last year. Rodríguez’s power is also down this season. He’s launched just seven home runs after putting up his first 30-homer campaign last year. It’s worth noting that Rodríguez struggled through the first half of 2023 as well. At this point last year, he had 13 home runs and a 104 wRC+ before exploding for 19 dingers and a 145 wRC+ the rest of the way, so the Mariners should be confident that the 23-year-old phenom will turn things around. However, even with Julio at his best, Seattle needs more offense.

There will, as always, be rental bats available. Guys like Tommy Pham or Josh Bell (especially if he’s on one of his yearly hot streaks) would certainly help the Mariners add depth and lengthen their lineup, but they need a game-changer, someone to make pitchers sweat, and nobody like that exists on the rental market unless the Mets are willing to trade Pete Alonso. So Dipoto might have to go big, even if he has to give up Miller or Woo or a top prospect like Harry Ford or Cole Young in such a move. Here are some of the players the Mariners should target in a trade:

Risky Rooker

Brent Rooker is good at one thing: hitting the crap out of the ball. He’s best suited as the DH instead of playing the outfield. He also walks at a solid clip and strikes out a ton. But when he does connect, few hitters in the league make more optimal contact. Rooker is above the 90th percentile for xSLG, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and sweet-spot percentage (he’s better than Luis Arraez there!), helping him pop 43 homers since the start of 2023 after being claimed off waivers by the A’s in the 2022-23 offseason. Most importantly, his power plays anywhere: He’s got 13 home runs this year, and he’d actually have a couple more if all of his batted balls were in Seattle, per Statcast.

The thing about Rooker is he’s streaky. Last year, he had a bonkers 232 wRC+ in March/April and then posted monthly marks, in order, of 77, 74, 144, 94, and 159 the rest of the way. This season has been a similar story. He had a 122 wRC+ over the first month and a 185 mark in May, but he’s down to 84 in June. Still, even a streaky Rooker would benefit the Mariners, especially because he’s under club control through the 2027 season.

Trading With A Familiar Team

The Rays are never ones to shy away from trading off their big league roster, even when they’re in contention for a playoff spot. And they’re certainly never ones to shy away from trading with the Mariners, with last offseason’s José Caballero-for-Luke Raley deal the most recent example in a long line of swaps between the two teams.

While the Mariners were interested in Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes last offseason, I’d argue that acquiring him wouldn’t work out well. Paredes has made a name for himself with his signature pull-side power, but that approach wouldn’t be as beneficial if he were playing his home games in Seattle. According to Statcast, only six of Parades’ 11 home runs this season would’ve been gone at T-Mobile Park, which has extremely hitter-unfriendly park factors; this year, the environment is reducing batted ball distance by an average of six feet, not good for a hitter like Paredes who relies on optimal horizontal spray angle.

Randy Arozarena has struggled mightily this season, and Brandon Lowe is too injury-prone to be relied upon as a true lineup-lengthener. But how about Josh Lowe? He’s missed some time this year due to injuries, but he’s mashed when healthy and boasts plus power and speed. Like Rooker, Lowe is controllable; he isn’t set to reach free agency until the after the 2028 season. For this reason, the Rays would ask for a lot in return. But Lowe would be an excellent fit for the Mariners, essentially the lite, left-handed version of our next and final trade possibility.

The White (Sox) Whale

Injuries are always going to be at the forefront of any discussion about dynamic White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Most recently, he missed 55 of Chicago’s first 79 games this season after re-injuring the same hip that limited him to 68 games in 2021. But what he did last year, in his first and only full season, should make teams looking to upgrade their lineup drool at the possibility of acquiring him. Robert has 40-homer power and the speed to swipe 20 bases. He’s also an excellent defensive center fielder with a strong throwing arm, tools that should make him an elite right fielder — where he’d almost certainly slide because Seattle already has Rodríguez in center.

Robert is not without his flaws; in addition to his injury history, he strikes out a ton and doesn’t really take walks. But he would clearly be the second-best position player on the Mariners and the game-changing force they most desperately need. And while he’d cost a king’s ransom that might decimate the Seattle farm system, this is the type of move that fits the Mariners perfectly. They would get a player whose raw talent equals that of Rodríguez and one who is under club control through 2027, courtesy of two $20 million club options that they would surely pick up.

Will the White Sox move him? There doesn’t seem to be anyone untouchable on Chicago’s roster, but general manager Chris Getz has every right to ask for the moon. Are the Mariners willing to fork it over to get another star? They should be.

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

The most encouraging thing about the Reds entering spring training was their depth. Noelvi Marte, Jeimer Candelario, Jonathan India, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Elly De La Cruz, and Matt McLain would shuffle around the four infield spots, and TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, Spencer Steer, and Will Benson would get the lion’s share of the outfield time. Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Frankie Montas, Brandon Williamson, Nick Martinez, and Graham Ashcraft were battling for five rotation spots, and the experienced bullpen would be headlined by 2023 All-Star Alexis Díaz. The most talented of those players would make up the core, with more than enough depth to weather underperformance and injuries. Well, that’s what we thought, anyway.

Instead, Marte was suspended 80 games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. McLain underwent shoulder surgery and is expected to miss the vast majority — if not the entirety — of the season. Encarnacion-Strand could meet the same fate after fracturing his wrist after an anemic 37 wRC+ through his first 123 plate appearances. Williamson is on the IL with a strained shoulder that could keep him off the mound for the whole season without throwing a single pitch in the majors. Ashcraft is in Triple-A after posting a 5.05 ERA across 12 starts this season. Bullpen stalwarts Ian Gibaut, Emilio Pagán, and Tejay Antone are all on the IL. All this misfortune has added up to a 35-39 record that has the Reds in the basement of the NL Central.

It hasn’t been all bad, of course. Cincinnati posted a winning record through April, and is 10-7 since the start of June, a stretch that includes a seven-game winning streak from June 2-8. It’s a promising turnaround after the team’s brutal 9-18 May. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

No division race is tighter than the AL East, with the Yankees leading the Orioles by just 1.5 games ahead of their three-game matchup that begins tonight in the Bronx. Both teams are virtual locks to make the playoffs, but securing the division title is crucial because of the almost-certain bye that would come with it. This is a fierce race that looks like it’ll go down to the wire, but these head-to-head games might not be as important for their divisional hopes as their off-the-field showdown leading up to the trade deadline.

While the Orioles and Yankees won’t have much overlap in terms of trade needs — and as such won’t be competing for many of the same players — they’re obviously competing to get better and build more complete rosters so they can outlast the other and make a deep October run. The thing is, considering there are only five teams right now that are out of the playoff picture — the White Sox, Marlins, Athletics, Rockies, and Angels — actual upgrades available on the trading block might be in short supply. That means the Yankees and Orioles will need to capitalize on whatever improvements they can make. This environment could set the stage for New York and Baltimore to be among the most active teams over the next month and a half.

The Yankees have arguably the two best hitters in the entire league in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, and though the rest of the lineup is good, it doesn’t inspire nearly as much confidence. Anthony Volpe’s flattened swing path has helped him cut down on his strikeout rate and spray more hits to the opposite field, but this month his strikeout rate is back up to 27% and he hasn’t walked since May 30. Alex Verdugo has been solidly above average and stabilized left field, which had a cavalcade of players come through last year, and Giancarlo Stanton’s streakiness has worked itself out to a 121 wRC+ and 17 homers, even though his on-base percentage is below .300. The catching duo of Jose Trevino and Austin Wells has come around too, though Trevino’s throwing issues were firmly on display on Sunday, when the Red Sox stole nine (!) bases against him.

And then there’s the triumvirate of underperforming infielders: Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, and DJ LeMahieu. I’d be shocked if Torres didn’t keep his job; after an anemic start, his bat has started to come around (112 wRC+ since May 12). But LeMahieu hasn’t hit much at all since signing his six-year deal before the 2021 season, and Rizzo has struggled for a full calendar year now, though at least some of his 2023 woes can be attributed to the post-concussion syndrome that caused him to miss the final two months of last season. Further complicating matters is Rizzo’s latest injury, a fractured right arm that won’t require surgery but will keep him out for an estimated four to six weeks, according to The Athletic. In the short-term, the Yankees are expected to play Oswaldo Cabrera at third and LeMahieu at first, with catcher/first baseman Ben Rice likely to replace Rizzo on the roster. A bat like Rockies third baseman Ryan McMahon would go a long way toward lengthening the lineup while also improving the defense.

The Orioles, on the other hand, have gotten strong production up and down the lineup, with the exception of Cedric Mullins, who has made up for his offensive struggles with excellent defense. But their pitching — widely viewed as a strength coming into the offseason — has been hammered by injuries.

The Yankees weathered the loss of Gerrit Cole with aplomb — so much so that I’m not sure they’ll need to be in the market for starting pitching, even as Clarke Schmidt is expected to be out for a while with a lat strain. Cole is slated to be activated and make his season debut tomorrow night. Meanwhile, the sheer quantity of Orioles starters on the IL all but necessitates making an acquisition on that front. Dean Kremer will be back soon from triceps tightness, but Tyler Wells and John Means are out for the year, and Kyle Bradish could be destined for the same fate. He recently landed on the IL for a second time this year with a sprained UCL in his elbow. That leaves AL Cy Young frontrunner Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, and Kremer as the top three starters of a playoff rotation, with the revelatory Albert Suárez and Cole Irvin right behind and rookie Cade Povich potentially pushing for a spot as well.

There would certainly be worse playoff rotations around the league, but the O’s would be doing a disservice to their deep offense if they neglected to improve their starting pitching, especially after they failed to address last year’s rotation before the deadline and then were pounded by the Rangers and swept out of the ALDS. Their wealth of position player depth in the minor leagues should allow them to add at least one or two of the top available starters: Garrett Crochet, Erick Fedde, Tyler Anderson, Cal Quantrill, and Jesús Luzardo.

The one mutual need for the Yankees and Orioles is where all teams overlap at the deadline: the bullpen. Both teams have excellent back-end duos — Baltimore has Craig Kimbrel and Yennier Cano, while New York boasts Clay Holmes and Luke Weaver — but there’s a steep dropoff after that. The shallow seller’s market ought to create a lesser supply of available relief arms, which would likely inflate the cost that teams would ask for in return. This is where the strength of the New York and Baltimore farm systems (both of which are excellent) really come into play. These two organizations can afford to overpay for a third high-octane reliever — such as Carlos Estévez, Tanner Scott, Michael Kopech, and perhaps even Mason Miller — without sacrificing their long-term outlook.

The final distinction is the two teams’ disparate payroll situations. While it doesn’t appear as if the Yankees have any restrictions for this season — and the pursuit of keeping Soto surely will be unaffected — owner Hal Steinbrenner certainly sounds like a man who wants to decrease payroll from the $302 million it’s at this season. Next year’s payroll is already at $182 million, and that’s before factoring in arbitration raises to key players like Trevino, Schmidt, and Nestor Cortes — not to mention the exorbitant price that’ll be required to re-sign Soto. Torres and Verdugo are also set to hit free agency this offseason, and the current payroll figure for 2025 doesn’t include what it will cost either to bring them back or backfill their positions. That could make them less interested in trading for players on guaranteed contracts beyond this season, even those who would fit well, like McMahon.

On the flip side, the Orioles have an extraordinary amount of flexibility under new owner David Rubenstein, who hasn’t publicly commented on specific payroll plans but essentially can’t do anything but spend more than the Angelos family did in the last several years of its ownership. Huge raises are coming for Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Ryan Mountcastle, Bradish, and others, but Baltimore has a paltry $2 million committed to next season. That should give GM Mike Elias carte blanche to acquire anyone he wants at the deadline no matter how many years of club control the player has remaining, provided he’s willing to give up the necessary prospects.

All of this will play out over the next six weeks before the deadline. In the meantime, the battle for the AL East begins in earnest tonight.

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

It’s not exactly uncommon for league champions to struggle the following year. The most extreme versions of this are the Marlins, who sold off just about all of their good players after winning the World Series in 1997 and in 2003. The Nationals, who still haven’t had a winning season since their World Series title in 2019, are a more recent example. But, usually, at least one of the two teams to play in the previous World Series has a strong follow-up season. In fact, over the first 29 seasons of the Wild Card era, only twice have both league champs from the same year missed the playoffs the next season; interestingly, those two years came back to back, in 2006 (White Sox and Astros) and 2007 (Cardinals and Tigers). That’s why it’s quite jarring to see both the Rangers and Diamondbacks under .500 entering play this weekend.

While both teams won on Thursday, they’re not in great position right now. The Diamondbacks are 8.5 games out of first place with a 33-36 record (though they’re just a game out of the final NL Wild Card spot); the Rangers’ 33-35 record has them five games behind the first place Mariners and 3.5 games away from a wild card berth. The sluggish start gave the reigning world champs just a 19.2% chance of making the playoffs entering Thursday; Arizona’s odds weren’t that much better, at 27.9%.

Considering this, let’s look at what has gone wrong for each team and determine how they can avoid becoming the third pair of league champions in three decades to each fall short of returning to the postseason in their follow-up campaigns. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

Things have taken a rough turn for the Chicago Cubs since the end of April. Over the weekend, they lost three of their four games against the Reds, lowering their record to 32-34 ahead of their upcoming a three-game set against the Rays in Tampa Bay.

The Cubs started strong, with a 17-9 record that ranked third in the National League, but their 17-0 loss to the Red Sox on April 27 kicked off a nightmarish 15-25 run. Since then, only the putrid White Sox have fewer wins than their crosstown rivals during that 40-game stretch. So what’s gone wrong? And what can the Cubs do to fix it? We’ll get to that second, more complicated question a bit later, but before we do, let’s answer that first one because it’s pretty simple. What’s gone wrong? Pretty much everything.

Since April 27, the Cubs rank 25th in the majors with an 87 wRC+, down from the sixth-ranked 112 wRC+ they posted across their first 26 games. Meanwhile, over their last 40 games, their pitching staff has a 4.14 ERA, which ranks 19th. Their bullpen has been especially bad, with a 4.90 ERA that is the fourth-worst mark in the majors during that span. Even fielding the ball has been a struggle; despite having reigning Gold Glovers Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner at the middle infield positions, Chicago has been among the seven worst defensive clubs in the majors, with -20 DRS and -10 OAA.

Jed Hoyer’s tenure as president of baseball operations has been defined by building depth and accruing volume rather than star power. Despite running one of the four franchises valued at $4 billion or more, Hoyer hasn’t signed a player to a contract larger than Swanson’s $177 million, and as things stand, he has not doled out a deal worth $30 million for a single season. (If Cody Bellinger opts out after the season, the Cubs will pay him a total of $30 million, but that technically wouldn’t be $30 million for one year; rather, Bellinger would earn $25 million in 2024, with a $5 million buyout allocated to 2025.)

Obviously, there aren’t any marquee free agents to sign right now, and it remains to be seen if the Cubs will be in the market for the best available players this coming offseason. (As of now, Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes look like the only two who’ll command average annual values of $30 million or more.) But letting perfect contract terms be the enemy of good teams has arguably been what’s prevented the Cubs from making the postseason in every non-COVID year since 2019. The team was at least loosely connected to Bryce Harper, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Carlos Correa in their free agent years, all of whom besides Bogaerts would be the Cubs’ best player right now. Of course, there are more factors to signing a free agent besides offering the most money — Turner preferred being out east, for example — but the Cubs’ inability, or perhaps lack of desire, to even get close to finalizing deals with elite free agents may well be directly contributing to what has been a middling team for the past handful of seasons.

This is not to say that all the Cubs’ recent signings haven’t worked out. The Swanson deal looked great last year when he hit 22 home runs, posted a 104 wRC+, and was worth 4.4 WAR; we shouldn’t lose sight of that just because he’s struggled this year. Similarly, Chicago’s decision to sign Shota Imanaga was brilliant. Although he didn’t come to the U.S. with the same hype as Yamamoto, and therefore came cheaper, Imanaga has been arguably the best pitcher from last offseason’s free agent class.

But along with those two astute signings, there are plenty of others for “middle-class” free agents that haven’t worked out, among them are the deals for pitchers Jameson Taillon, Drew Smyly, Michael Fulmer, Brad Boxberger, first baseman/DH Trey Mancini, and catcher Tucker Barnhart. Settling for these value deals for mid-tier players has led to Chicago’s middling performances. The Cubs can afford to spend more than they have under Hoyer, and part of the reason why they are floundering now is because they don’t have enough high-end talent to contend with the best teams. To get star-level players, you need to pay star-level prices. Maybe those prices are excessive and don’t make sense according to dollars-per-WAR calculations, but they’re often necessary to assemble a winning roster, especially for the clubs that have the financial flexibility overpay for players. As Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman once said, being rational doesn’t consummate many deals. That sentiment can also be applied to trades — the Cubs haven’t swung a significant one on the buying side since acquiring Jose Quintana during the 2017 season.

Andrew Friedman: "If you're always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent."

— Andy McCullough (@ByMcCullough) December 6, 2016

That hesitation to swing major trades has had a positive effect, though, in that it’s given the Cubs an incredibly deep farm system. In their piece on the Cubs’ top prospects, Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin described the organization’s minor league system as “one of the very best” in MLB, noting that the franchise has more top 100 prospects (9) than any other team.

But, having a great farm system doesn’t mean much if you’re not going to use your prospects either to beef up your big league club or trade them for impactful players on other teams.

The Cubs have already tried the former, to mixed results. Three of their nine top 100 prospects are already on the major league roster: first baseman Michael Busch, who has a solid 123 wRC+ at first base; Pete Crow-Armstrong, who has struggled at the plate (60 wRC+) but is already one of the league’s finest center fielders (4 OAA, 6 DRS); and Jordan Wicks, whose peripherals (4.01 xERA and 3.23 FIP) indicate that he’s been better than his 4.44 ERA in five starts and a relief appearance would suggest. The problem is that none of them, at least right now, are enough to help the Cubs break through.

So where do the Cubs go from here? Well, they probably can’t look within the organization to stop the bleeding. Outfielder Owen Caissie, their sixth-ranked prospect and no. 69 overall, is tearing it up in Triple-A right now (130 wRC+ in 238 plate appearances), but he’s the only one of their six top 100 prospects still in the minors who is close to being ready for the big leagues. Instead, the best way to fix things for this season would probably involve trading away at least one of their top four prospects: Crow-Armstrong, right-hander Cade Horton (currently out with a lat strain), infielder Matt Shaw, and outfielder Kevin Alcántara.

If the Cubs don’t think they can sign Soto or Burnes, trading for established stars is really their only path to acquiring a player who could drastically improve the floor and ceiling of a roster that’s more quantity than quality, with Bellinger, Christopher Morel, and Seiya Suzuki showing flashes of stardom but not on a consistent basis. The Cubs haven’t had consistent All-Star performers on offense since the days of Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo; on the pitching side, they haven’t had a single ace-level starter since Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks in their peaks — though Imanaga certainly appears on his way. They haven’t had a closer last an entire season in the role since Wade Davis in 2017.

Ultimately, if the goal is to win — and with Craig Counsell at the helm for $8 million a year, it certainly ought to be — then acquiring a true anchor for the roster is paramount. But if the team appears too flawed for a single star player like Luis Robert Jr., or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to make a difference, then the best course of action might be to further augment the farm system by selling before this year’s trade deadline, even if they only trade rental relievers like Smyly and Héctor Neris. They could then finally make this coming offseason the one where they get aggressive rather than shrewd, going to the market instead of waiting for it to come to them. If they went all in and signed Soto, he’d be the best hitter they’ve had in decades. And despite some of the questions about the long-term viability of Pete Alonso, he’d certainly be the team’s biggest power threat since Sammy Sosa. With either or both of those stars on the roster, the Cubs would be able to let the top players in their farm system develop while contributing in supporting roles instead of having to fulfill their potential right away.

Whether it comes now, at the deadline, or in the offseason, the Cubs need to do something different. Going back to the well with good-not-great players is how you get good-not-great teams.

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

On Tuesday, I wrote about how the Brewers have been able to leverage largely unheralded depth into an excellent start to their season. In a conversation about the column with one of my friends the following day, I referred to the Brewers as “Rays North” for their ability to extract the most out of players and pile up wins. But really, the Brewers are paving their own trail and the Rays are at something of a crossroads.

Entering a huge four-game series against the Orioles on Friday, the Rays are 31-31, and 13 games back in the AL East. They’ve got 100 games left, so there’s no need to panic just yet, but they’re at risk of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2018, and for their first losing season since 2017.

The ever-present depth that has defined the Rays for much of Kevin Cash’s tenure just hasn’t been there, especially on the pitching side. The bullpen, which has been fodder for cheeky memes whenever the Rays pick a reliever up off waivers (I love tweeting “1.80 ERA coming” for every arm they snag off the scrap heap), has plunged to 29th in WAR, with the team simply not possessing the breadth of arms that it has in years past. The middle relievers have been especially troublesome; while Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, and Garrett Cleavinger have all been excellent once the ball has gotten to them in the late innings, the bridge to them is crumbling.

And their starters aren’t helping matters. Only Ryan Pepiot and Zack Littell have ERAs below 4.00, and Aaron Civale and Taj Bradley have been hit especially hard. Bradley has tantalizing potential and can carve through hitters with the best of them when he’s on — he struck out eight batters in his first three innings against the Red Sox two starts ago — but when he’s off for an inning or two he gets absolutely hammered. He’s allowed seven homers across five starts. That inconsistency has fueled a rotation that ranks 26th in WAR, and unlike in prior years, the Rays don’t have reinforcements on the way. Joe Rock is their only prospect pitching particularly well at Triple-A.

It’s a bit more encouraging — if not by much — that Tampa Bay sits 19th in the majors by position player WAR, and maybe that’s enough to conjure up some Rays magic. However, I’m just not sure this offense should even be this good. Isaac Paredes is almost singlehandedly carrying the bats, with last year’s core of Yandy Díaz (99 wRC+), Randy Arozarena (83 wRC+), and Josh Lowe (109 wRC+ in just 15 games thanks to a couple IL trips) failing to support him. I don’t think Díaz is suddenly an average bat; he won the batting title in 2023, continues to hit the ball hard, and still makes great swing decisions. Arozarena is a different story. His swing-and-miss issues and newfound inability to optimally hit the ball (his sweet-spot percentage is in the first percentile) don’t exactly give me hope that a turnaround is imminent.

So, where do the Rays go from here? Many other teams would be relieved if they still had a .500 record as plenty of their most important players underperformed; those clubs might bank on some positive regression and decide to upgrade their roster before the trade deadline. But that’s not how the Rays operate, especially in an extremely tough AL East.

Complicating matters is their payroll, which is currently at $97 million, by far the highest of the six years for which we have payroll data at RosterResource. While teams will never open the books and say exactly what a particular payroll means for financial losses and gains, owner Stuart Sternberg claimed before the season that the high payroll would lead to “real losses.” Sternberg added that he views those losses as worth it because he’d “like to keep [the successes] rolling,” and I have no real reason to doubt that he means that; the Rays have been good for years, and he’d surely like to have a talented team when the franchise’s new stadium ostensibly opens in 2028. What I’m not sure, though, is if augmenting this deeply flawed team to win this season is the best move. For the first time in a while, I could see the Rays going in the complete opposite direction.

The Rays are never ones to make huge additions at the deadline — it’s more complementary players like Nelson Cruz and Civale, and longer-term plays for untapped potential like Arozarena and Fairbanks — but that doesn’t mean they might not make huge subtractions. Tampa Bay is famous for never having untouchables, and despite his anemic performance, teams are apparently quite interested in Arozarena. He has the third-highest salary on the team, and I have no reason to believe the Rays also wouldn’t entertain offers for their two highest earners, Zach Eflin and Díaz, if the return is commensurate and the front office thinks that such a move would be the best path toward improving in 2025 and beyond. On a smaller scale, if the Rays are roughly .500 by the time the deadline rolls around, I’d be surprised to see Amed Rosario, Shawn Armstrong, Phil Maton, Chris Devenski, and Harold Ramírez still on the team.

As usual, what the Rays end up doing at the deadline might lead to some head-scratching; plenty of their moves during their stretch of success seemingly came out of nowhere, and some of those surprises hardly made sense at the time. But this is an organization that is always thinking about what’s next rather than pushing all its chips in for a single season. And there’s no reason to think that this won’t be a quick reset rather than a long rebuild. Next year, ace Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, and Drew Rasmussen are expected to return to the rotation after recovering from elbow injuries that will cost them most or all of this season. Also, the Rays should have über-prospect Junior Caminero, who is currently battling quad issues in Triple-A, healthy and ready to contribute in 2025. And don’t forget about Xavier Isaac, who’s tearing through the minors himself and could be an option for the big league club as soon as next year. Playing for next season is probably the smart move for the Rays at this point, and if that means trading away some talent from this year’s club, then so be it.