After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the St. Louis Cardinals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Cardinals hitters ranked eighth in the majors by WAR this past season, and they did it in the precise way one expects Cardinals hitters to do these things: on the back of a 29-year-old center fielder who entered the season with fewer than 400 plate appearances. Also key were the contributions of a shortstop who’d played mostly third base in the minors and a first baseman who hit just 29 homers in nearly 1,500 minor-league plate appearances. Tommy Pham (532 PA, 3.3 zWAR), Paul DeJong (602, 2.1), and Matt Carpenter (573, 3.0) are all under contract for 2018 and all profile as average or better players.

The newest member of the club also appears to be the best. St. Louis was among the beneficiaries of Miami’s attempt to liquidate every possible asset, acquiring outfielder Marcell Ozuna (644, 3.7) for a modest package of prospects. ZiPS calls for him to produce what amounts to an even split between his 2016 and -17 seasons.

As for weaknesses, there are few among the club’s position-player core. One possible concern is shortstop defense (DeJong is projected for -6 runs there), although that’s also been a possible concern for the last three or seven years.

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After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Last year at this time, corner type Rhys Hoskins (641 PA, 3.6 zWAR) was assessed a 45 FV (the future-value grade of a platoon or utility type) in Eric Longenhagen’s audit of the organization and was omitted entirely from the top-10 lists published by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. Following impressive performances at both Triple-A and in the majors, however, he now receives the top WAR projection among position players in the organization.

Hoskins is the only hitter forecast to record an above-average batting line (125 wRC+) for Philadelphia in 2018. That said, ZiPS calls for Maikel Franco (615 PA, 1.9 zWAR), Freddy Galvis (621, 2.0), Cesar Hernandez (579, 1.7), and Odubel Herrera (612, 2.9) all to produce a sufficient combination of offensive and defensive value to record wins at a roughly average rate.

The club’s greatest weakness appears to be at catcher, where Andrew Knapp (380, 0.7) and Cameron Rupp (340, 0.8) both fail to clear the one-win threshold. Prospect Jorge Alfaro (448, 0.1) was productive in 100-plus plate appearances and has no options remaining, both of which make him a candidate for the 25-man roster. His total lack of plate discipline, however — he’s projected for walk and strikeout rates of 3.8% and 34.2%, respectively — puts a lot of pressure on the other aspects of his game.

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After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Baltimore’s roster could look somewhat different on Opening Day than it does presently. If the club ends up trading Manny Machado (688 PA, 4.9 zWAR) — which reports suggest is at least a possibility — then other players entering their final year with the club might also be dealt. Among hitters, that would include Adam Jones (616, 1.8).

Such moves, were they to occur, would leave few wins behind in Charm City. With the exception of Jones, Machado, and Jonathan Schoop (629, 3.0), no position player in the organization is forecast by Dan Szymborski’s computer to record two or more wins. It’s possible that a return for Machado would yield major-league talent. It’s unlikely, however, that the club would opt for present value over future.

The team does feature some pieces with possible upside. The projections for Tim Beckham (509, 1.4), Austin Hays (614, 1.5), and Trey Mancini (608, 1.5) probably all feature larger error bars than is typical. That triumvirate will remain under team control through 2020, at least. Unfortunately, the club will continue to owe Chris Davis (541, 1.3) roughly $20 million per annum for a couple years after that.

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After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
The Pirates’ position-playing cohort recorded the fourth-worst collective WAR mark in the majors this past season. The most immediate source of their troubles was evident. In last year’s version of these same projections, Jung Ho Kang and Starling Marte were forecast for nearly six wins between them. Due to a variety of indiscretions, they were limited to just 339 plate appearances and 1.2 wins, all of them Marte’s.

While Kang remains absent from the club indefinitely, a full season of Marte (504 PA, 2.6 zWAR) ought to address some of the pains endured by the 2017 edition of the team. With the exception of third base, ZiPS calls for the Pirates to extract two or three wins from every position. That points to the possibility of an average group of hitters. It also indicates there’s little margin for error here.

In light of the that, it’s not surprising to hear — as Buster Olney reported before dawn this morning — that the club might be searching for ways to trade Andrew McCutchen (630, 3.4). Whatever the return, his departure would almost certainly render the team less competitive in 2018.

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After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Oakland A’s. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
It’s inaccurate to say that ZiPS is “pessimistic” about the Oakland A’s. It’s inaccurate not because the ZiPS projections for Oakland are particularly good, but rather because ZiPS is incapable of of pessimism. It’s the unfeeling product of a proprietary algorithm applied to historical data, not a sentient being.

It would be entirely reasonable, on the other hand, to declare that a human person is pessimistic about the Oakland A’s after examining the ZiPS projections. Indeed, a brief inspection of the numbers here suggests that it’s one of the few logical conclusions to be drawn.

The depth-chart image below reveals five positions — catcher, second base, left field, center field, and right field — at which Oakland receives a rounded WAR projection of 1.0. Of course, the precise arrangement of certain players is subject to change. While Matt Joyce (431 PA, 0.6 zWAR) is more or less established in right field, for example, the roles of Mark Canha (489, 0.5), Dustin Fowler (460, 0.7), and Chad Pinder (463, 0.3) are all somewhat mutable. However they’re deployed, though, none of them appear particularly well suited to more than a bench role for now.

In a more promising development, two of the organization’s top young players from 2017, Matt Chapman (521, 2.8) and Matt Olson (565, 2.3), receive promising forecasts. The might very well represent a core around which the club can build.

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After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
In 2017, six of the Rangers’ position players surpassed the two-win threshold. Only one of that group (Carlos Gomez, specifically) appears likely to play elsewhere next season. In light of that lone departure, one might expect something on the order of five players to record two or more wins in 2018. Dan Szymborski’s computer, however, clearly operates by a different sort of calculus.

Indeed, a brief examination of the tables below reveals that only Adrian Beltre (430 PA, 2.7 zWAR) is forecast by ZiPS to record two-plus wins next year. As for the other four returnees, all are projected to endure some manner of regression: worse numbers on contact for Elvis Andrus (656, 1.9) and Robinson Chirinos (270, 1.3); more strikeouts and fewer extras bases for Joey Gallo (507, 1.7); and what appears to be fewer runs from defense and probably baserunning for Delino DeShields (471, 0.4).

This isn’t the end of the bad news, either: all told, four positions on the rough depth chart below — catcher, second base, center field, and designated hitter — are accompanied by a rounded WAR figure of 0 or 1. A very dreary sort of binary code, is how one might characterize that.

One, desperate for an optimistic note, can find it in Willie Calhoun’s projection (586, 1.9). Part of the return for Yu Darvish, Calhoun lacks a defensive home. What he doesn’t lack, however, is a promising offensive profile. ZiPS calls for markedly above-average contact and power numbers, represented by his 13.1% strikeout rate and .220 isolated-slugging figure, respectively.

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After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Colorado Rockies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
The Rockies produced the third-highest run total in the majors this past season but also the fourth-lowest adjusted offensive runs mark. The most notable difference between those two metrics, of course, is that the latter accounts for park. Despite the club’s strong raw numbers, only three of Colorado’s regulars (Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, and Mark Reynolds) produced above-average batting lines. Only two (Arenado and Blackmon) recorded two or more wins.

At the moment, the prognosis for the 2018 season — among the team’s position players, at least — isn’t much better. Arenado (667 PA, 5.2 zWAR) and Blackmon (672, 3.8) continue to profile as durable, star-level talents. DJ LeMahieu (653, 2.1), meanwhile, offers average play. Beyond that triumvirate, however, no other hitter is forecast by Szymborski’s computer to exceed the two-win mark.

The club would appear to benefit from help most immediately in the corner outfield, at first base, and at catcher. With regard to the first two positions, what the club lacks in reliable quality, it possesses in possibly useful quantity, including David Dahl (473, 1.5), who was expected to be last year’s Opening Day left fielder before losing much of the season to injury.

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After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Toronto Blue Jays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
While some organizations have had success with a “stars-and-scrubs” approach to roster construction, history reveals that the star-and-scrubs tactic has been considerably less successful. Were Kevin Pillar (616 PA, 2.9 zWAR), Russell Martin (402, 2.4), and Justin Smoak (518, 2.2) to fall even a half-win short of their respective ZiPS forecasts in 2018, however, that’s precisely what would result in Toronto.

Third baseman Josh Donaldson (572, 5.6) is clearly the centerpiece of the Blue Jays’ field-playing contingent. His projected batting line — which, of course, features adjustments both for aging and regression to the mean — would nevertheless place him among the league’s top 20 batters. The fielding number (+6 runs at third base) produced by Dan Szymborski’s computer would render Donaldson the equivalent of a league-average shortstop.

As for what’s missing, the club would probably benefit most immediately from some assistance at a corner-outfield spot. Neither Teoscar Hernandez (553, 1.2) nor Steve Pearce (318, 0.8) profile as anything much better than a strong bench piece at the moment, nor do any superior options exist on the major-league roster.

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After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Mets position players actually put together a pretty strong campaign in 2017, recording the 11th-best WAR in the majors among their peers. That would normally represent some cause for optimism in terms of next season — would, that is, were the current roster to feature the same personnel as this past year’s. An inspection of that roster, however, reveals that four of the club’s top seven players by WAR from 2017 are no longer employed by the organization. Curtis Granderson (2.3 WAR for the Mets in 2017), Jay Bruce (2.0), Jose Reyes (2.0), and Neil Walker (1.4) have all departed either by way of trade or free agency.

The exodus of talent might pose some challenges to the 2018 edition of the Mets. According to Dan Szymborski’s computer, however, it also might not. ZiPS calls for over seven wins combined from Yoenis Cespedes (projected for 500 PA and 3.4 zWAR) and Michael Conforto (513, 3.7), which would go some distance towards mitigating the losses of the club’s departed outfielders. The projections here also suggest that young shortstop Amed Rosario (594, 2.2) and young first baseman Dominic Smith (652, 2.5) could produce nearly five wins as a pair — this, after recording -0.3 WAR collectively in 2017. Those sorts of return would likely place the Mets’ field-playing contingent among the league’s middle third again.

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After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cincinnati Reds. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
The 2017 campaign wasn’t what anyone would characterize as an “overwhelming success” for Cincinnati. The club finished 26 games under .500. Their BaseRuns record wasn’t much better, either. All in all, it was the sort of season one might expect from a rebuilding club.

A brief inspection of the numbers, however, reveals that the club’s position players were actually pretty good. Due largely to a defensive performance rated highly both by DRS and UZR, the Reds’ batters and fielders recorded the 10th-best WAR in the league. The team’s pitchers, meanwhile, ranked 30th by that measure. The split was the second largest in all the league.

The defense should be a strength once again in 2018. While free agent Zack Cozart (projected for +7 runs at shortstop and 3.0 zWAR overall) is unlikely to return to Cincinnati, both catcher Tucker Barnhart (+9, 2.5) and center fielder Billy Hamilton (+12, 2.3) return to a roster populated mostly by average-or-better fielders.

As for Joey Votto (5.3 zWAR), he isn’t projected to be an elite defender. He is, however, forecast to be the club’s best player — by a couple wins, in this case. Eugenio Suarez (3.5 zWAR) is the team’s other All-Star candidate according to the projections.

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