With the first round set to kick off on Sunday, we present our second mock draft. Full scouting reports can be found over on The Board.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA)

This pick is still not a lock, though there are people in the industry who feel like it should be based on their opinion of Mayer’s talent. The Pirates themselves have been tight-lipped about their intentions and haven’t begun engaging advisors in an illuminating way, at least not such that we’ve been able to ascertain either by engaging with those reps ourselves or by triangulating information by talking to the teams behind Pittsburgh. Right now Mayer is here in our mock because we think he’s the best player, and teams tend to think Pittsburgh will take a hitter and that Mayer is in that mix. Ben Cherington’s modus operandi in previous positions of power has been to take a college player, but he’s never picked first before. Whoever Pittsburgh takes up here (even Mayer) will sign for less than the slot value ($8.4 million). In Pittsburgh’s mind, is there a gap between Mayer and the rest of the pack? How big is that gap, and is there a player in the second tier of talent willing to take a deal far enough under slot to tempt the Pirates into moving off Mayer? That may only become evident as things crystallize behind Pittsburgh in the next several days.

2. Texas Rangers
Pick: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

If Mayer doesn’t go first, then he’s the favorite to go here and the general sense around baseball is that the other high school shortstops — Jordan Lawlar and Khalil Watson — are likely in the mix, too. Watson doesn’t fit with the org’s recent patterns of acquisition, so we’re skeptical of that one. Scouts with other teams speculated to us that Leiter better fits Texas’ self-perceived competitive timeline, and that they have the bonus pool flex to get a deal done even if Leiter’s camp sees this market as sub-optimal. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2020 draft was instructive to many teams, as it taught them how to scout off data and video since multiple in-person looks were made impossible by the pandemic. And while scouts are back on the road, data and video remain important tools, with some teams giving them the same weight as in-person reports. With access to many of the tools that teams lean on come draft season, I am able to view data and video from nearly every pitch thrown by Division I college arms. So in that spirit, I decided to write up some potential first rounders.

While a great deal of draft coverage when it comes to pitching has focused on Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker, the two much-lauded Vanderbilt arms, there are somewhere between five and seven college pitchers who could also end up first-round picks and demand some attention. I start today with three of them — two who began the year highly regarded by the industry, and a third who has jumped up on boards considerably this spring.

Ty Madden, RHP, Texas

Statistics: 107.2 IP, 71 H, 7 HR, 41 BB, 129 K

2021 Year in Review: Madden came out strong but had some hiccups in late April and early May as he struggled with his command. He finished the year on a high note, including a 7-4-2-2-2-10 line against Mississippi State in Omaha.

Physical Description: 6-foot-3, 215 pounds. To use the scouting cliché, this is what they look like.

Delivery: Utilizes power frame well. Big kick, good hip tilt and leg drive with on-line landing. Finishes a bit wild with very high back leg coming around and creating big spin to the first base side. Leans into a high (12:30) arm angle that produces very good fastball shape. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re a month away from the 2021 Draft and it’s time for our first mock draft of the season. We have also posted an updated ranking of the prospects, which is available over on The Board. In a typical year, the Draft, which usually leads into the first or second weekend of June, would be wrapping up and teams would be beginning to prep for next year’s affair by heading to PG National in St. Petersburg to watch many of the top 2022 high schoolers. With the pandemic once again shifting the schedule, the draft is instead still a month out, and only now is substantive information circulating that makes a mock based on more than speculation and educated guessing viable.

Below we have names with teams down to pick 17, where the Reds (who also pick 30th and 35th) select. After that we have a smattering of dope and rumors to pass along, but otherwise still think it’s an exercise in futility to connect specific names with clubs toward the back half of the first round. This mock was compiled with info sourced from team personnel (a couple of general managers, scouts, cross checkers, directors, etc.), agents, and our own experiences at games (scouting the scouts and execs), as well as our own logical conclusions. As we receive feedback from more of our sources, and as teams cease scouting and huddle in the draft room for the next month, the rankings will grow and change, and we will update and lengthen our mock. Read the rest of this entry »

Watching baseball can sometimes feel like watching a chess match, scrutinizing often-motionless players as they try to out-think one another. But if MLB’s brand of baseball is a Queens Gambit-esque affair – quietly self-serious, steeped in tradition, a bit stuffy at times – then college baseball is the more unpolished version you see played in Central Park, with moves coming in frenzied flurries from players who can sometimes seem more caught up in the moment than they are focused on gameplay. But as the NCAA Division-I baseball tournament heads into super regionals this weekend, who can blame these players for letting their emotions run high? There are a number of future major leaguers among the remaining players in the tournament, hoping to boost their draft potential as they attempt to lead their teams to Omaha. But there is also an undoubtedly larger contingent of players who can feel their days of playing competitive baseball dwindling, which can make for a score-enhancing combination of adrenaline-fueled offense and nervy defense.

A brief glimpse at the scores from last weekend’s action is enough to highlight the different brand of ball on display at the college level. There was an average of 12.8 runs scored in each game – a stark contrast to the anemic offensive landscape of the majors. But even with those inflated results, there was still pitching prowess aplenty, with many regular-season storylines stretching into postseason play, including those of much-discussed Vanderbilt starters Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. The two are expected to go early in this year’s draft (as early as first and second overall, by some estimates), and were unsurprisingly tapped to start the team’s first two games of the Nashville regional. Rocker started Game One, pitching seven scoreless innings and fanning nine as Vandy shut out Presbyterian, 10-0. In their next game, Leiter faced off against Georgia Tech starter Marquis Grissom, Jr., allowing the nostalgic among us to reminisce about the days when their fathers went head-to-head decades ago. Leiter allowed just one run, and struck out 11 batters over the course of his six innings of work; Vanderbilt went on to win 4-3. Read the rest of this entry »

These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here. Today’s notes feature thoughts on three college hitters who played in the NCAA Regionals, as well as three pitching prospects currently in the big leagues.

Reed Trimble, CF, Southern Miss
Draft Class: 2021  Age: 21
Regional Line: 14-for-25, 4 HR

Notes
When I named Trimble one of Conference USA’s top prospects in a tournament preview post from a couple weeks ago, I made a mistake with respect to his draft eligibility. He’s indeed a (COVID) freshman, but his 21st birthday was Sunday, so he’s a draft-eligible freshman. Trimble hit .345/.414/.638 this year, and the Southern Miss schedule was no cakewalk even though they’re a mid-major. It included 12 games against eventual regional host and top-16 team Louisiana Tech, as well as games against Mississippi State, Alabama, Florida State and Ole Miss, and four against South Alabama, who made a deep regional run. Read the rest of this entry »

These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

With the college baseball postseason underway, today’s notes will be a mix of observations from conference tournament play and the minor leagues. We’ll begin…

In the SEC…

Top-10 nationally ranked teams Tennessee and Mississippi State both lost their opening round games; the two will square off in an elimination game today. Alabama’s win over Tennessee moves them closer to an at-large bid, though their chances of doing damage in June are hurt by the absence of lefty Connor Prielipp who will have Tommy John surgery today, as Kendall Rogers reported yesterday. Prielipp is a top 10 talent. The recovery time from TJ puts his 2022 college season in jeopardy, and the date of next year’s draft becomes significant for him as he has a better chance to throw in front of teams if it’s again in July. Read the rest of this entry »

If you missed yesterday’s post, I’m spending a few days this week focusing on the college postseason, which began yesterday. For those who missed yesterday’s action, this YouTube channel and many like it post “highlights” consisting of the end of each plate appearance. You get a good feel for the flow of the whole game in about 15 minutes. They’re a great resource if you want to follow college baseball and softball but don’t have ESPN+. Below I have brief previews for the tournaments that begin today. This is done with a focus on the groupings with prospects, and the ones people can watch on streaming services (again, mostly on ESPN+). I’ll also be citing work from D1Baseball and Baseball America a lot. They are both indispensable resources for college coverage.

The best reason to watch the Big 12 tournament is to see Jace Jung hit. The COVID freshman posted a .366/.496/.766 line this year, was tied for fifth in the country with 20 homers, and had 46 walks against 35 strikeouts. He’s built a lot like his brother, Josh, the top Rangers prospect, except he’s left-handed, has better feel for turning on pitches than Josh did at the same stage, and plays second base rather than third. Plus, the younger Jung’s style of hitting is cool, and totally his own. Tech catcher Braxton Fulford has rare power for the position, as does COVID freshman shortstop Cal Conley, who is college baseball’s version of Brad Miller. All three Red Raider home run leaders play up the middle positions. Righty Brandon Birdsell muscles up and sits 95-plus pretty consistently, too. Tech is fun and talented. Read the rest of this entry »

There are very few Monday games on the minor league baseball schedule this year, so when the opportunity presents itself, I plan on mixing it up for the Tuesday editions of Daily Prospect Notes. Today begins conference tournament play for a large portion of Division I baseball. Much of the week’s action can be seen if you have an ESPN+ subscription, which is $6 a month. Absent a cable subscription, I don’t think that gets you the SEC or ACC games until the last few make their way onto the main ESPN channels, but between what you will see of the conference tourneys plus the entirety of the College World Series, I think you’d get your money’s worth if you ponied up for the next two months, and I’m not paid to say that.

This is also a convenient time to direct your attention to college baseball. The regular-season narratives are now tied up in neat little packages that will be presented on the broadcasts throughout the week, so you’ll be brought up to speed and know what the stakes are pretty quickly. The conference tournaments will help shape the eventual field of 64 teams in national postseason play, and they’re also heavily-scouted events due to the high concentration of talent. The way players perform here and during the College World Series carries a little extra weight in the draft room because it’s the last time they’re seen before the draft, though that may be less true this year since the later draft dates leave room for more private workouts than in a typical year.

Below I have brief previews for the tournaments that begin today. I’ll have another edition tomorrow for the other conferences, with a focus on the groupings with prospects and the ones people can watch. I’ll also be citing work from D1Baseball and Baseball America a lot. They are both indispensable resources for college coverage. Read the rest of this entry »

With six weeks until the draft, things are more muddled than ever at the top. If anything, the range of possibilities is continuing to widen. There is still an entire college postseason left to go, as well as what are sure to be some difficult signability discussions that move individual needles significantly. In a dramatic turn of events, it suddenly looks as if the Pittsburgh Pirates are focused on positions players over pitchers with the first pick in the draft. Instead of doing a mock this early (we’ll have one soon, though more to share information than to try to pull a Kreskin with so much time until Day One), I decided to set the current odds for the first overall pick.

The Odds

Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA): 3-1

“Marcelo Mayer or Jordan Lawlar?” is the most pressing question for those considering the first pick in the draft, and when I polled top scouts and executives, there was a nearly 50/50 split in their responses. “Mayer should be 1-1, and I don’t think it should really be a conversation,” said one scouting executive. “In terms of pound-for-pound talent, he’s the number one guy. Left-handed, good stick, future power, and plays up the middle.” Among his detractors, there are some questions concerning the up-the-middle aspect of Mayer’s game. While he makes every play and at times can be a flashy defender with plus hands, smooth transfers, a well above-average arm and excellent instincts, he’s also a big-framed kid with below-average run times coming out of a slightly awkward gait. For scouts concerned about this, Mayer becomes a future third baseman; for those who believe in all of the defensive tools beyond the twitch, he’s more comparable to Carlos Correa or Corey Seager. Read the rest of this entry »

With the calendar turning to late May, it feels strange to say that the industry is still a long way from making 2021 draft selections, but the new July start date isn’t the only unique thing about this year’s draft. The ongoing global pandemic and the larger player pool created by last year’s draft being reduced by nearly 90% have created additional challenges in terms of preparation for July 11. With just under two months to go before teams are on the clock, I got it touch with a number of key decision makers around baseball to get a better sense of what’s going on behind the scenes.

Dealing With the Information Deficit

The pandemic has created a variety of evaluation challenges, but few have had a greater impact than the lack of a 2020 Cape Cod League and the highly abbreviated and lightly attended high school summer showcase season. These lost opportunities to see potential draftees play against the best of their peers have left teams without one of their loudest data points as they begin to print out magnets and line up their boards. “With college hitters, we’re no more certain than we are with the high school guys right now,” said one National League scouting executive. “We just don’t have the big data advantage for college players that we used to.” One American League executive agreed, but not to the same extent. “We are poised for more uncertainly and variability due to the smaller track records, but it’s not as uncertain as I expected it to be.”

Another AL decision maker said that last year’s limitations in terms of scouting have provided an unexpected benefit in terms of dealing with this year’s challenges. “We learned in last year’s draft that there is still a lot of information out there and ways to evaluate it that we hadn’t taken advantage of in the past,” he said. “We were forced in 2020 to be open to different ways and now it’s become a new way of doing things.”

One of the most impactful innovations over the last decade has been that of the draft model. Nearly every team utilizes some kind of projection and/or scoring model that takes in historical performance and other, more advanced data sources and spits out some measure of draft value, but one American League evaluator worried that the lack of recent information will result in a garbage in/garbage out scenario. “We have guys who had a rough three weeks in 2020 but are playing well now,” he said, lamenting the incredibly small samples produced by the pandemic. “I think a lot of models are just going to have to be thrown out the window this year.”

More Players, More Problems

There were 1,217 players selected in the 2019 draft. In 2020, the number was reduced to 160. That leaves over 1,000 potential draftees who returned to school, transferred to new schools or entered the college ranks with the plan of impressing scouts for next year. That sudden glut of players was expected to complicate matters greatly, but late into the 2021 scouting season, teams have found the suddenly larger player pool isn’t impacting their processes as much as they initially anticipated. “There’s a handful of guys who had to come back that are going go in the first two days,” said one National League exec. “But I don’t think it’s that many of them; we’re certainly not going to see some flood of 22-year-olds,” he concluded, noting that age plays a massive role, as teams are weighing date of birth more heavily than ever. “Once you’re 22, the bloom is off the rose,” another executive added. One American League executive agreed that the large player pool will have little effect early, but should begin to play into later selections. “It doesn’t feel like twice the number of players, for whatever reason,” he concluded. “I do think that it’s going to become a factor from rounds six through 20, and I think that teams are still figuring out how to draft when it’s down to 20 rounds.”

Early Disappointment in the New Draft League And Combine

Another twist to this year’s draft has been the establishment of the new MLB-organized Draft League, which was cobbled together from six Northeast teams that lost their minor league affiliation, as well as a medical and performance combine in late June. These were generally seen as positive developments when initially announced, but the list of players participating has left much to be desired for teams looking for more information.

Some are taking more of a wait-and-see approach to an event that is just getting going and is dealing with the same real-world challenges everyone has been grappling with over the last year and a half. “I would expect it to take some time with people easing into it,” said one American League executive. “Let’s get past the pandemic before we start judging.” Another AL decision-maker agreed. “I think the intention is good and it’s going to take some time to make it normal for people,” he explained. “It’s all new and it’s going to take some time. It’s not a bust as much as it’s a work in progress.”

Still, some are disappointed by the early returns. “There are names going into that Draft League and they aren’t even Day Three options,” said one exacerbated National League executive. “You’ve got guys that are barely playing for their college team this spring but they are going to play there. Going would be a waste of time for us.”

“I’ve just kind of blocked it out,” said a senior American League scout. “I’m just going to the Cape.”

Multiple insiders brought up the CBA in terms of the combine, saying that how everything unfolds in this year’s negotiations will help define the future efficacy of the event. Others argue that as with other sports, many top prospects will continue to avoid something that can only create negative value for them. “If you are an agent with a brain, why would you send your player there?” Asked one National League executive. “All you can do is lose money.”