Tonight, there’s only one game in town, as the Giants face the Dodgers in a winner-take-all, NLDS Game 5 slugfest in San Francisco. It’s been billed as a matchup between two borderline Cy Young candidates: Logan Webb, who humbled the Los Angeles lineup in the first game of the series, and Julio Urías, who started Game 2 for the Dodgers after a superlative 2021 season. Only, nope:

Corey Knebel will start Game 5 tonight.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) October 14, 2021

This isn’t going to be a lengthy discussion of whether openers make sense. Teams clearly like the tactic as a way to fill innings, but almost never in front of a pitcher as good as Urías. I’m interested in what the Giants will do to counter it, and how that counter will determine Urías’s matchups.

When he took the mound last Saturday, the Giants set up like so:

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This postseason, I’m trying out a new feature: managerial report cards. After each postseason round, I’ll look at the losing managers and assess their performance when it comes to in-game management. Pinch hit for your MVP candidate with a pitcher? Not that it would ever happen, but you’d get an F for that. Bring in your best pitcher in a big spot, only to have him give up a three-run homer? That’s still an A, results notwithstanding.

These grades don’t cover everything that a manager does. Deploying your best players in the biggest spots and hiding their weaknesses where possible is a big part of a manager’s role, but it’s definitely not the only part. As an example, Kevin Cash and the entire Rays staff deserve a permanent A for their work in getting their pitchers and hitters ready for flexible roles all season long. Likewise, Dave Roberts and the Dodgers coaching staff benched a former MVP and seem to have kept the clubhouse roughly in order, always a tough task. None of that will be reflected in these rankings, but it’s absolutely important managerial work — it’s simply work I don’t have much insight into.

Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays

Lineups/Pinch Hitting: C
Cash mostly used his lineups creatively, matching his players’ strengths with the opposing pitcher’s. The Red Sox went heavily to lefties in this series — Eduardo Rodriguez started two games and Chris Sale one. That meant a heaping helping of Jordan Luplow, Manuel Margot, and Yandy Díaz, three players on the team for their ability to hit left-handed pitching. When Nathan Eovaldi started Game 3, all three of those hitters were out of the lineup, replaced by Austin Meadows, Ji-Man Choi, and Joey Wendle. Read the rest of this entry »

Of all the major sports, I would argue that none rely on their history and its place in the cultural milieu more than baseball. Every big moment in baseball seems to be steeped in comparable historical feats accomplished by some of the game’s most famous protagonists, from Ruth to Mantle to Maddux. In one sense, that’s a positive; even if there are more strikeouts and home runs than there were 100 years ago, someone from 1921 could arrive by time machine and still follow what is fundamentally a very similar game. But on the flip side, someone like Mike Trout can’t simply be recognized as being the first Mike Trout but as the next version of Mays or Mantle or Speaker. We joke about broadcasters waxing nostalgic about the aura and mystique of the New York Yankees, but a player on the Yankees can’t help but be endlessly compared to the heroes of yore, and mortals are usually found wanting in those comparisons.

Every team in the playoffs has something to prove, but Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros would both like to be victors who write the history books.

The Red Sox spent most of the 20th century as the Goofus to New York’s Gallant. The Yankees were expected to win World Series after World Series while the less-fortunate son was the habitual loser, constantly pulling defeat from the jaws of victory because of a curse caused by a team owner who wanted to produce a play, My Lady Friends in 1919. But the 2000s have swung things the Sox way, with Boston not just breaking its long championship-less streak but winning four championship trophies this century, the most in baseball. Yet to a large extent, the Yankees still retain the position of the big dog. It even felt a bit like that at the trade deadline, when the Yankees got the headlines for acquiring Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo while Kyle Schwarber was seen as a Boston consolation prize. But Schwarber played better than either Gallo or Rizzo, and unlike them is still playing in 2021. Read the rest of this entry »

Joc Pederson isn’t the only ex-Dodger thriving in October (excuse me, Joctober). Kiké Hernández is going to have to find a catchy nickname for the month as well (Kiktober? ‘Riqtober? I’m still workshopping that one), as he keeps adding to his considerable portfolio of postseason heroics after turning in the best season of his career with the Red Sox.

On Monday night, Hernández hit the walk-off sacrifice fly that sent the 92-win Red Sox past the 100-win Rays in the Division Series. Earlier in the series, he had a 5-for-6 performance with three doubles, a game-tying homer, and three RBI in Boston’s 14–6 comeback victory in Game 2, followed by a 3-for-6 performance with a solo homer and a game-tying RBI single in Game 3. Within those two games, he set a Division Series record with hits in seven straight at-bats (not plate appearances), one short of a postseason record shared by Reggie Jackson (1977–78 Yankees), Billy Hatcher (1990 Reds), and Miguel Cairo (2001–02 Cardinals).

Hernández also went 1-for-3 with a run scored and a walk in the Wild Card Game against the Yankees, highlighted by an assist on the pivotal play where Aaron Judge was thrown out at the plate. It all makes for quite a highlight reel.

Hernández is no stranger to the postseason, having made annual trips from 2015 to ’20 with the Dodgers. His list of greatest hits starts with his three-homer, seven-RBI performance against the Cubs at Wrigley Field in Game 5 of the 2017 NLCS, which did nothing less than help the Dodgers clinch their first pennant in 29 years; he added a game-tying RBI single off Ken Giles in the 10th inning of Game 2 of that year’s World Series against the Astros, though Los Angeles lost that contest. He also contributed a two-run, pinch-hit double in Game 3 of the 2019 Division Series against the Nationals and a pair of game-tying solo homers in last year’s NLCS against the Braves, one against Max Fried in Game 1 (the Dodgers’ only run) and the other in Game 7, followed an inning later by Cody Bellinger’s decisive solo shot.

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One of Dodgers’ biggest moves in last night’s must-win Game 4 came long before the players took the field, when Dave Roberts announced that he would start Walker Buehler on short rest rather than turn to Tony Gonsolin. It was a gamble necessitated by losing an extremely tight Game 3 to fall behind 2-1 in the best-of-five NLDS. Gabe Kapler, for his part, opted to stick to the script of starting Anthony DeSclafani, leaving Game 1 hero Logan Webb waiting in the wings for a potential Game 5. Let’s examine how those decisions played out.

The Early Innings

From the jump, Buehler proved he was up to the task in his first career start on short rest, not looking anything like a diminished version of himself. His velocity was up a full tick, and he worked quickly while hitting his spots.

DeSclafani, on the other hand, was unable to hold serve. His slider-heavy evening (50% usage on the night after 36% during the season) had the Dodgers sitting on the pitch. Their aggressive approach paid off; they swung at four of the first five sliders they saw, which led to three line drives and a quick 1-0 lead. The damage was limited to just the one run, as DeSclafani moved off his slider to strike out Justin Turner and end the inning. Read the rest of this entry »

There isn’t much missing from Freddie Freeman’s sterling career. He’s won an MVP, hit for the cycle, racked up 42 WAR, captured a pair of Silver Sluggers, and has already made five All-Star teams. That’s not quite enough for Cooperstown on its own, but he’s probably only a few more star caliber seasons away from a pretty good Hall of Fame case, and given that he’s only 32, he’s got time to pad his resume. With apologies to a criminally under-photographed snowmobile ride with Chipper Jones, the only thing missing from Freeman’s career has been an iconic moment.

No longer. In the eighth inning of a 4-4 tie in Tuesday’s NLDS Game 4, Freeman stepped to the plate against Josh Hader. Hader, of course, is the sport’s best relief pitcher and an absolute terror against lefties. He hadn’t given up a homer to a lefty all year, hadn’t surrendered a run since July, and hadn’t given the two previous hitters much of a chance to hit his nasty fastball/slider combo. On his first pitch to Freeman though, his bender caught too much plate and one chance was all that Freeman needed:

Milwaukee mustered a leadoff single in the ninth, but never got any closer to tying the game. Freeman’s late dinger ultimately clinched the series, and ensured the Braves wouldn’t rue a day that could have been defined by risky gambles and opportunities missed. Read the rest of this entry »

For the fifth consecutive year, the Astros are headed to the American League Championship Series to face an opponent from the AL East. With a 10–1 win over the White Sox in Tuesday’s ALDS Game 4, they eliminated the Central winners and clinched a date with the Red Sox, who knocked out the Rays on Monday. Up for grabs for Houston: the franchise’s third pennant and World Series trip in that span.

Over the first two innings of Game 4, it looked as if the White Sox were going to send the series back to Houston. Starter Carlos Rodón lit up the radar gun in the opening frame, touching as high as 99.4 mph with his fastball on his 10th pitch of the afternoon. Though he had a stellar regular season overall, he struggled with diminished velocity and shoulder soreness down the stretch; starting him seemed like a gamble for the Sox, especially considering the extra day of rest afforded to them by Monday’s rainout. Even Astros skipper Dusty Baker acknowledged that the lefty’s health would play a huge role, telling reporters that Game 4 “all depends on which Rodón we’re facing.” Read the rest of this entry »

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Needing to win two consecutive games to advance to the American League Championship Series, the Chicago White Sox got a bit of a breather on Monday thanks to storms that swept through the area, postponing Game 4 until Tuesday afternoon. The extra day of rest gave the White Sox an interesting option: do you stick with the previous rotation plan and start Carlos Rodón for Game 4 or do you take the opportunity to use Lance Lynn or Lucas Giolito, the Game 1 and 2 starters? White Sox manager Tony La Russa opted to stick with Rodón. Is that the right choice?

The first step in answering that question is to see if the projections give any obvious guidance. As it currently stands, with Rodón starting Tuesday and Lynn going in a possible Game 5, ZiPS projects the White Sox with a 25.2% chance of winning the final two games of the series. Moving Lynn and Giolito into those spots increases Chicago’s win probability to 26.6%. That’s is a relatively minor change. The Astros get a larger boost from their decision to move Lance McCullers Jr. up to Game 4, skipping José Urquidy and then likely turning to Framber Valdez for Game 5.

A percentage point or two doesn’t make a move obvious, and while projections are highly useful, they cannot always take the whole micro situation into account, no matter how clever their developers imagine themselves to be. Read the rest of this entry »

Regardless of where he and the White Sox go from here — at this writing, they’re on the brink of elimination against the Astros, down two games to one in the Division Series — the 2021 season has already been the best of Carlos Rodón’s major league career. On April 14, the 28-year-old lefty threw the season’s second no-hitter (nearly a perfect game). In July, he made his first All-Star team, and he finished the season having set career bests in ERA (2.37), FIP (2.65) and WAR (4.9), numbers that all led the staff of the AL Central champions. Under normal circumstances, the availability of such a pitcher to start such an important game would be a godsend, but the combination of Rodón’s late-season bout of fatigue and Monday’s postponement due to rain gave manager Tony La Russa the option to reverse his previous decision and bring back Game 1 starter Lance Lynn on regular rest, a choice that Dan Szymborski tackled elsewhere on the site.

It’s been quite a comeback for Rodón, who just over a year ago appeared as though he might have reached the end of his run with the organization that drafted him with the number three overall pick out of North Carolina State in 2014. To one degree or another, he’s been beset by arm problems for nearly all of his major league career, to such a point that only once has he thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title.

Rodón reached the majors less than a year after being drafted, but spent his first four seasons with performances that were right around league average in terms of ERA and FIP; he posted a 97 ERA- and 101 FIP- for the period and only once made more than 23 starts, topping out at 28 in 2016, a season in which he missed three weeks due to a left wrist sprain. The arm troubles showed up in 2017, when biceps tendinitis and bursitis in his shoulder limited him to 12 starts; recurring bursitis led to surgery that cost him the first two and a half months of 2018. Five weeks into the 2019 season, he wound up needing Tommy John surgery, and while he was ready to go to start the long-delayed, pandemic-shortened ’20 season, he made just two starts before being felled by shoulder soreness, then pitched just two innings in late September upon returning. The White Sox included him on their postseason roster, but in his lone appearance in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series against the A’s, he failed to retire any of the three Athletics he faced when summoned to protect a 3-2 lead with two outs in the fourth inning; the A’s took the lead, and while the White Sox came back to tie the game, they were ultimately eliminated. Read the rest of this entry »