Kevin McGonigle Photo: Junfu Han/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
With the draft behind us and the trade deadline looming, I’ve made a number of updates to The Board. The signing deadline for drafted players has passed, and the 2025 class has now been ported over to the pro side of The Board. You can now see where your favorite team’s new draftees line up in their farm system, and I may yet add a few more of the very late round and/or undrafted players who signed for way over slot (looking at you, Brewers). I’ve also peeled away from the lists those players who have exceeded the rookie eligibility threshold; they’ve been moved onto the Graduates tab on The Board. This means that the farm system values have shifted, and will continue to in real time as trades are made this week.
Most importantly, however, I’ve made a sweeping update to the Top 100 Prospects list. As I noted in the spring with our last Top 100 update, there are a couple of things to keep in mind as you read, especially if you’re new to FanGraphs prospect stuff. First, the “Top 100” title is arbitrary SEO nonsense; I rank players as deep as I have them graded as 50 FV prospects or better, and as of this update, that’s 99 guys. Second, remember that Future Value is a value grade. The tools and ultimate potential upside of a player matter a lot, as does the length and consistency of a player’s performance track record and their proximity to the majors. There are players who have talent upside better than their FV grade, but if they’re risky for whatever reason, or if they’re in the low minors, I want to reflect that risk/time element in their grade. Read the rest of this entry »
As the draft comes to an end, I find that even after writing a number of articles about this class, I still have more to say. So now that the tables are being folded up and the bartender is cleaning out the taps, here’s an offering of potpourri from draft season: Stray anecdotes and quotes from the combine, or bits of analysis, that never found a home in an article.
But you could argue that the real school of the draft was Corona High School of California, which had right-hander Seth Hernandez go to the Pirates sixth overall, shortstop Billy Carlson go to the White Sox at pick no. 10, and third baseman Brady Ebel go to Milwaukee at pick no. 32. (In an amusing coincidence, Carlson is committed to Tennessee, though after he went in the top 10, I doubt we’ll ever see him in Knoxville except as a tourist.) Read the rest of this entry »
Below is a team-by-team analysis of last night’s draft activity. Remember that you can find more detailed scouting reports and tool grades for the players drafted yesterday over on The Board. The positions below are what I have them projected as on The Board, not necessarily what the player was announced as. For pitchers, I have a role designated below: starter (SP), or single-inning or multi-inning reliever (SIRP and MIRP). Read the rest of this entry »
Baseball players can be pretty big. I knew this going in. Even so, I was not prepared for Noah Yoder. The 18-year-old pitcher from Mechanicsville, Virginia, draped himself onto the chair I’d set out for him, and then he started to overflow his container, like an overproofed bread dough liberating itself from a too-small pan.
Yoder explained that, having little showcase experience other than an eye-catching performance at East Coast Pro, he was enjoying his fancy surroundings at the MLB Draft Combine. Having a shuttle bus from the hotel to the ballpark was a particularly nice surprise.
As he settled into his seat and stretched out his legs, I was quickly coming to the realization that I had not left nearly enough space between his chair and my own. My previous interview had been with a compact college relief pitcher, and I hadn’t thought to rearrange the furniture for my next guest. Read the rest of this entry »
1. Washington Nationals Pick: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)
Before Mike Rizzo was let go, folks would have put Ethan Holliday here given the relationship of that regime with Holliday’s agent, Scott Boras, as well as the Rizzo era’s penchant for high-upside high school players. There is some industry conjecture that the key pieces of Washington’s core that might make sense to extend (James Wood, MacKenzie Gore) who are also Boras clients are not receptive to the idea of extensions, and frustration stemming from this might make the new leadership group less apt to want to work with Boras, who represents all the players here not named Eli Willits. About an hour before the draft I started to get wind of rumors that Washington was looking to cut a deal with one of Holliday, Anderson or Willits, whoever takes the least of that group. Willits’ next alternative seems like pick number five, making him the most likely to cut the biggest deal.
2. Los Angeles Angels Pick: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
In keeping with the Angels’ consistent modus operandi of taking quick-moving college guys, teams have put them with Doyle (most frequently), Kade Anderson, and/or on a deal cut with Ike Irish. I did have one person suggest they were a threat to take Holliday, but just one.
3. Seattle Mariners Pick: Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (OK)
If the draft lottery gods were kind to you and you moved up as much as the Mariners did, wouldn’t you feel like you were playing with house money and feel comfortable taking the potential franchise-altering player?
4. Colorado Rockies Pick: Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
This is generally seen as Ethan’s floor. Folks think Colorado would take a college arm if he isn’t here, and in this scenario, Anderson is.
5. St. Louis Cardinals Pick: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (CA)
Lots of Eli Willits smoke here, though if Jojo Parker’s and Billy Carlson’s camps think they’re falling pretty deep, they might be under-slot targets here. Teams like Ike Irish enough that he could go anywhere from here through pick 10.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates Pick: Ike Irish, C/OF, Auburn
Mentioned here have been Jamie Arnold (in the Anthony Solometo mechanical mold, so it makes sense), Aiva Arquette, and Billy Carlson, but dope around Pittsburgh the last couple of years has almost never been correct. Irish might be the quickest-moving hitter from this draft class; he’s as stable a position player prospect as there is in the draft as the clock ticks on this front office to put together a competitive team.
7. Miami Marlins Pick: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)
Teams have put all the high school shortstops here, and also Ike Irish and Seth Hernandez. Carlson performed from a contact standpoint but has some visual hit tool risk, similar to Carter Johnson and PJ Morlando last year.
8. Toronto Blue Jays Pick: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
I don’t have any specific dope here, this is just good value if Arquette falls this far. College pitchers with fastball playability tend to be Toronto’s style, which could put Jamie Arnold and Kyson Witherspoon in their mix. I’m not sure any of the high school shortstops scratch their itch because they’re all older.
9. Cincinnati Reds Pick: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL)
Seth Hernandez if he’s here. Teams think the Reds are keeping their options open and that they’re in play for any of the high school shortstops. In this scenario, Parker and Hall are here. Hall’s speed and athleticism are more a fit for what they’ve tended to do.
10. Chicago White Sox Pick: Jojo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS)
11. Athletics Pick: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
12. Texas Rangers Pick: Gavin Fien, 3B/OF, Great Oak HS (CA)
13. San Francisco Giants Pick: Tyler Bremner, RHP, UCSB
14. Tampa Bay Rays Pick: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
15. Boston Red Sox Pick: Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee
The last couple of days, folks have mentioned that Arnold is falling. He’d be a great buy-low for the A’s. Fien and Jace LaViolette have been mentioned with Texas. Industry sources put the Giants more on college players now that Buster Posey is running things. I’ve been told the Rays are Kyson Witherspoon’s floor. Boston is expected to make a model-driven pick and Kilen’s bat-to-ball skills fit there. He could also go a pick earlier to San Francisco. This is the area where people think Daniel Pierce will cut a deal.
Arizona has a bunch of picks and therefore perhaps more motivation to cut a deal, and Pierce is rumored to have one somewhere in this range. Baltimore has taken toolsy college hitters with plate discipline issues the last few years, and this year that’s Aloy. Milwaukee has tended to target high schoolers of late, but the contact-oriented up-the-middle guys left here (Bodine, Marek Houston) could tempt them, too.
Houston targets toolsy college guys, even when they have strikeout risk. At this stage, that’s Jace, and Aloy if he’s there. There are several surface-scratching arms with good fastballs here for Atlanta to consider (Patrick Forbes, Matthew Fisher); that’s their type, riding heaters with good breakers.
26. Philadelphia Phillies Pick: Dax Kilby, INF, Newnan HS (GA)
27. Cleveland Guardians Pick: Devin Taylor, OF Indiana
Prospect Promotion Incentive Picks
28. Kansas City Royals (Received for Bobby Witt Jr. finishing in top 3 of MVP voting) Pick: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS (OR)
Compensation Picks
29. Arizona Diamondbacks (Compensation for Christian Walker) Pick: Slater de Brun, CF, Summit HS (OR)
30. Baltimore Orioles (Compensation for Corbin Burnes) Pick: Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (IN)
31. Baltimore Orioles (Compensation for Anthony Santander) Pick: Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
32. Milwaukee Brewers (Compensation for Willy Adames) Pick: Jaden Fauske, C/OF, Nazareth Academy HS (IL)
Day One of the amateur draft kicks off this evening, and I’ve done a top-to-bottom refresh and expansion of my draft prospect rankings, which you can see on The Board. Please go read those blurbs and explore the tool grade section to get a better idea of my thoughts on the players. The goal of the draft rankings is to evaluate and rank as many of the players who are talented enough to hop onto the main section of the pro prospect lists as possible, so they can be ported over to the pro side of The Board as soon as they’re drafted. Players for whom that is true tend to start to peter out in rounds four and five of the draft as bonus slot amounts dip below $500,000. Over-slot guys are obvious exceptions. By the seventh round, we’re mostly talking about org guys who are drafted to make a team’s bonus pool puzzle fit together, or players who need significant development to truly be considered prospects. That usually means ranking about 150 players, and this year’s class is right in that range; right now, I have 152 guys on there. Read the rest of this entry »
On Sunday night, at least one University of Tennessee player is going to get taken in the first round of the MLB Draft. Left-hander Liam Doyleis a lock to go in the top 15, with as many as half a dozen of his teammates (plus four or five Tennessee commits) also in the running to get picked later on Day One.
That’s not unusual these days; since 2020, the Vols have produced six first-round picks, second-most of any program in the country. But it is new. Tennessee had six players picked in the first round proper from 1985 to 2019 inclusive. That run includes Todd Helton and R.A. Dickey, both of whom are older than Tony Vitello, the man who turned a mediocre SEC program into the hottest ticket in college baseball.
Incidental to all this impressive talent development: Five straight Super Regional appearances, three College World Series appearances, and a national championship in 2024. Life is good, both for those in Knoxville and for those departing the scene for pro ball. Read the rest of this entry »
The most electrifying moment of the NCAA Tournament came in a game that was all but out of reach already.
Tennessee left-hander Liam Doyle, on his third team in as many seasons, was not present for the Vols’ College World Series title in 2024. But over a short time in Knoxville, he’d nudged his way into a very select group: Along with Florida State’s Jamie Arnold and LSU’s Kade Anderson, Doyle is a candidate to be the first college pitcher taken in the draft.
Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The SEC opened conference play this past weekend and there were a bunch of great matchups. The most surprising result was Tennessee’s sweep of Florida, as both teams entered the series ranked in the top 10. At this point, the Volunteers look like the best team in college baseball. Outside of the SEC, Stanford’s Japanese phenom Rintaro Sasaki hit his first career home run on Saturday, and we saw a four-homer day from Northwestern’s Trent Liolios.
Sticking to the theme of last week, these notes are on draft-eligible players who are not currently listed on The Board, as it’s still too early to rank them, but who nonetheless should hear their names called this July. Read the rest of this entry »
