Dan Szymborski: Welcome!

Dan Szymborski: Since it decided not to post in the queue for some reason at 11:40 and I had to force it at 11:57, there’s no queue built up, so feel free to ask any question, no matter how ridiculous

Dan Szymborski: And there’s a good chance I’ll be able to answer it, since asking me about how I evaluate pretzels or how many weird AIs I’ve made of Lindsey Graham is way better than awkward silence

Kate: Would Grant Holmes projection be worse if he was projected in the rotation?  In terms of how ZiPS projects his role, is that something you do manually?

Dan Szymborski: As a default, ZiPS will project a player based on their recent usage. It looks at the last four years and VERY heavily weights recent play.

Dan Szymborski: However, I have clickboxes for “full-time starter” or “full-time reliever” which will cause ZiPS to go back and translate the past baselines for a pitcher into full-time starter or full-time reliever lines, and then make a new projections

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the first edition of my Tuesday chat in awhile. Between playoff coverage, election day, and a family emergency, I haven’t been able to fill this timeslot in awhile; apologies if you’ve been itching for a chat (also, please see a doctor if the itch persists).

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I took a first look at this year’s BBWAA ballot, which features Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia as the top first-year candidates and  Billy Wagner as the top holdover (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-big-questions-about-the-2025-bbwaa-hal…). Today, my Era Committee series continues with a look at the candidacy of Dave Parker

Jay Jaffe: That one will go live at 12:30 I’m told. Vic Harris will follow tomorrow.

Jay Jaffe: One more bit of adminstration before I get into the questions. Since I last chatted, Bluesky has taken off as the social media platform of choice for baseball chatter of a certain bent, and almost everybody from the FanGraphs family now has an account there. Dan Szymborski helpfully put together a starter pack of the FG-related accounts here https://bsky.app/profile/dszymborski.bsky.social/post/3layykgak222s; I’m @jayjaffe.bsky.social there

Jay Jaffe: I’m winding down my participation on Uncle Elmo’s Authoritatian Disinfo, Grift,and Harassment platform but haven’t entirely figured out the timeline for that. If you want to interact with me and my work, that’s less likely to draw a response now.

Anyway, on with the show…

Filipe: Hi Jay! Do you think there’s going to be a lockout in 2026/27? Missed regular season games?

Eric A Longenhagen: Happy Friday morning, you hosers! It’s Fall League semi-final day so I’ll be (I think boldly/stupidly) riding my bike to Scottsdale Stadium this afternoon and mourning the end of our domestic baseball-watching calendar…

Eric A Longenhagen: This week I posted an update to the Foreign Pro Prospect list, and the Angels list…

Eric A Longenhagen: I also made some tweaks to what reads out on The Board: The Board | FanGraphs Baseball

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks to Sean Dolinar for implementing this during the week

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, vamanos a su preguntas

Phil: Updated thoughts on Denzel Clarke after his recent season and any looks at the AFL?

Billy Butler Did It: What is a realistic move the Royals could make to upgrade the offense?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t see a reason the Royals COULDNT go after Santander. Or at least Joc Pederson

Dan Szymborski: and welcome to SzymChat! With me finally done the ZiPS prep and it rolling out, chats are back

Brad M: Are we staring down a lockout in 2027? Missed games?

Dan Szymborski: Sadly, I do not expect a clean CBA agreement and I think it’s more likely than not that we miss games

Billy Butler Did It: What 1980s player would you be most interested in seeing how he would do playing today?

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy from sunny Tempe, Arizona where last weekend I went people watching up by the college to see some Halloween craziness, and instead the lady sitting next to me at the bar had a seizure or a stroke or something and I got to play paramedic in front of like 24 people. Sometimes things don’t go the way you plan.

AN1: How are you feeling on Creed Willems? He has smoked some balls out west. Doesn’t K a ton either and is 21 for the first half of 2025. Anything there?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll take the under. He has power but chases a ton for a 1B and I’m not sure how long he’s going to be athletically viable. Some model-driven team would probably take him in a deal, though.

Dk: Would you trade Tong, Williams and Gilbert for Crochet? Would it be enough?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d be trying to do better than that (I’d rather have Sproat than either Tong or Gilbert by kind of a lot, and I’d need to pry away at least one of Baty or Ronny Mo) but I appreciate you including Jett, who I think is gonna be good.

Scott M.: What do you make of Josue Briceno and Thayron Liranzo’s AFL performances so far? And what’s the likelihood either will stick at catcher?

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the pre-World Series edition of my chat. And wow, what a matchup we have ahead of us. For once the two number one seeds (just the third time in this millennium after 2013 and 2020)…

Jay Jaffe: and the two likely MVPs, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani (the subjects of an article that should go live as we chat. UPDATE: it’s here)…

Jay Jaffe: the most historically common matchup in World Series history (the Yankees have won eight out of 11 meetings), and one with great personal resonance, as I was an 11-year-old Dodgers fan the last time these two teams met in 1981.

Jay Jaffe: Plus, i get to cover the New York end of the series. So yeah, pretty excited here.

Jay Jaffe: (and apologies, my lunch just arrived so the beginning of this chat may be a bit slowed)

Ed: Is the Yankees SP Depth the biggest advantage in this series?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from beautiful Tempe where the temps have finally dipped after something like 20 days in a row of record highs.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m going to the two east valley Fall League games today and want to put the bow on another dispatch of notes so I’ll likely keep this chat tight to the top of the hour.

Eric A Longenhagen: OKay let’s boogie…

Sox fan: Hey Eric – thanks for all your prospects content. Wondering when you’ll have any updates on the upcoming international signing periods. Particularly interested in any Red Sox related intel. Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, I’ve got a bunch of big $ names and team for the next couple of years in my notes and I’ll be building out the $1mil+ version of The Board for publication in the next few weeks…

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t have any Boston guys for ’25 in my notes, they’ve tended to spread out medium sized bonuses across their entire class rather than spend $2mil+ on any one guy and I imagine that’s the case again

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat in my new Tuesday noon ET time slot. I’m still trying to wake up after a late night in the Bronx, where things quickly spiraled out of control for Carlos Rodón and the Yankees https://blogs.fangraphs.com/that-escalated-quickly-royals-rally-agains…

Jay Jaffe: I was saddened to hear today about the death of Luis Tiant. Quite a memorable and colorful character, and a pitcher who I think probably belongs in the Hall of Fame. Wrote a bit about Tiant in light of S-JAWS a couple of years ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-best-of-the-unens…. I’m going to try to figure out when I can fit in a tribute amid my playoff coverage.

Jay Jaffe: Which reminds me, thank you to everyone who chimed in with a kind word about my Pete Rose piece https://blogs.fangraphs.com/for-pete-rose-1941-2024-the-hustle-has-fin…. I got a very nice note yesterday from Mark Monroe, the director of the HBO documentary for which I was interviewed, Charlie Hustle and the Matter of Pete Rose. Check it out if you want a no-holds-barred look at a very complicated figure.

Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the show

Phillies phan: Can you think of any possible reason for why the phillies bullpen decided to give up so many runs all of sudden? Matt Strahm had been solid all season and had duds back to back games

Jay Jaffe: Because stuff like this inevitably happens? Even the best bullpens get knocked around once in awhile, because relief pitching is a high-variance job. Most of these guys are two-pitch pitchers, and if one of those pitches isn’t working well, it’s trouble. It’s also worth remembering that particularly with division rivals, hitters can get multiple looks at a reliever and that can shift the advantage in their favor.

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, where it is somehow still 100 degrees every day. I’ve got an instructs game today at 11 so we’ll keep today’s chat pretty tight to the hour so I can prep my gear and drive there. I have a cat draped over one forearm right now, this is a very popular chat.

James: Always appreciate that chats, Eric! SD system has thinned quite a bit, who is the next potential dude behind De Vries

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Humberto Cruz has a shot to be a big deal. Super smooth and projectable, could have premium command and a couple plus pitches.

Eric A Longenhagen: Sounds like he’s been shut down for the year, but the HS kids from the draft class throw this weekend here in AZ so I’m hoping to see Mayfield then. He could also be an answer to your question.

Guest: how much does TJ knock Christian Scott down, FV-wise and future role-wise?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still think he’ll start and be a mid-rotation guy (provided the rehab goes well, etc.).

Dan Szymborski: It’s a chat!

No longer a Ms fan: Does ZIPs think the Seattle Mariners should disband as a baseball team? What a disappointment they are.

Dan Szymborski: If the White Sox get to stay together, the M’s certainly do

Dan Szymborski: Maybe they should bring back the trident logo as primary

Chooch: Do you have an opinion on home/away splits for starters? I’m not trying to say he hasn’t pitched well this year, but the Phillies seem to be entertaining the idea of throwing Sanchez game 2 to get him a home start.

Does that enter your calculus going into a series; how would you go about planning your starters in the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t found that much value on it