Neil Weinberg: Hey all. We’ll get started at 3pm.

Remember, this chat prioritizes question about our stats and our site, but I’m happy to take whatever other questions you have. Fantasy and prospect questions will get lower quality answers, though, sorry!

I’m @NeilWeinberg44 on Twitter if you want to chat some other time.

Neil Weinberg: Alright, let’s chat

Neil Weinberg: I’ll go an hour for sure, but maybe two if you ask many questions. So more questions = more chat.

Comment From Andrew
Hey Neil, what are the best metrics to use to predict a power breakout for younger players?

Neil Weinberg: To predict a coming breakout or to determine if it’s real? Really some mix of plate discipline numbers and something like ISO. You really want quality of contact data, but that’s not publicly available

Comment From CS
Do you guys have a full list of players some where that can be extrapolated into excel? I would like to utilize the spreadsheet / hyper link abilities to better conduct an offline draft

Dave Cameron: It’s the last Wednesday in August, so let’s chat for an hour or so.

Dave Cameron: The queue is now open.

Comment From Eminor3rd
Thoughts on the extension of Jack Z?

Dave Cameron: It was inevitable. Teams don’t fire GMs in the middle of winning seasons, and they weren’t going to go through another off-season of speculation about his contract. Dayton Moore got a similar extension not too long ago. It’s what happens when a team contends for the first time in a while.

Comment From Bret
Are the Jays headed to a rebuild this offseason? Should they be?

Dave Cameron: I think they’ll take a run at it again and then blow things up mid-season if it doesn’t work. There will be plenty of trade value left with Bautista, Encarnacion, etc… in July.

Paul Swydan: Hi guys! We’ll be with you live at 9 pm ET! Well, Jeff will only be here for half the time, because he has to do a radio spot because people are all interested in the Royals again.

Paul Swydan: But I’ll never leave you, loyal reader. SO load up the queue with questions and we’ll cram you full of baseball at the designated time!

Paul Swydan: OK, let’s do this.

Jeff Zimmerman: Alright

Paul Swydan: FYI, I’ve been listening to this song all day. Stupid Red Sox.

https://www.youtube.com/wat…

Comment From Pale Hose
Last week you guys forced me to study. Back to the regularly scheduled Tuesday night distraction!

Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys. Dog fight outside my apartment!

Jeff Sullivan: The random kind, not the organized kind

Jeff Sullivan: Anyhow, hey, ask all the fantasy questions you want. I’m not going to answer them though

Comment From STiVo
How does a better’s WPA change if he gets a hit, but a runner is subsequently thrown out at home to end the inning during the play? Does the batter get dinged for the entire negative WPA of the play?

Jeff Sullivan: That’s a good question! Let me quickly investigate, by taking a look at Yasiel Puig’s recent running into a triple play

Jeff Sullivan: It would appear that indeed the batter pays the price for the baserunner’s error, if it is indeed a baserunner’s error

Dan Szymborski: BAR THE DOOR KATIE, IT’S A PIER SIX BRAWL

Dan Szymborski: In other words, the chattage has commenced.

Dan Szymborski: But first off, our usual strangely non-baseball related business.

:

:

Comment From CS
Thoughts on Wada ROS and next year? Iawakuma 2.0? (somewhat racial profiling)

Nicholas Minnix: Hello, folks, and welcome. I’ll be with you at the top of the hour!

Comment From Matt
Do you think Maikel Franco has turned it around over the past month? Still someone to be excited about?

Nicholas Minnix: He’s kind of slowly turned it around, period, I’d say. Yes, still.

Comment From AL Pitching Coach
Hi Nicholas. Hope you had a great week! In an AL-only league, any worries starting Gausman @ Cubs, Smyly @ Jays and Gray vs. Angels today? Thanks!!!

Nicholas Minnix: Thanks, you too! Generally speaking, I wouldn’t worry. Having said that, Smyly and Gray face two of the top MLB offenses. Having said THAT, if those teams are susceptible to one arm more than another, then it’s the type they face today. This is more of a “where are you in the standings?” question. In general, esp. in AL league, I’d throw the guys I’ve been riding all year, as you likely have with them.

Eno Sarris: Be here now. Also, I’ll be here soon.

manofonetitle:

Comment From Billy Beane
Is something wrong with Sonny Gray?

Eno Sarris: Nah. Wasn’t a mid-twos ERA guy. The change has graduated to okay but isn’t great.

Comment From American League Hustle
Assuming he can remain a full-time regular, prediction on Mookie Betts, both ROS and 2015?

Eno Sarris: I think he’s probably a .275/7/20 true talent guy right now, but next year I think if he can get out of the bottom of the order, .280+/10/30 is possible.

Neil Weinberg: Hey everyone, I’ll be here at 3pm to talk about our advanced stats, our features, our site, and anything else about baseball you’re interested in discussing. Fantasy and prospect questions are fine, but you’re better off asking people who know about those things.

I’m the Site Educator here, so if you’re looking to learn about stuff, that’s what this is for. I imagine we’ll have some fun Alex Gordon-Jeff Passan-Dave Cameron defensive metrics-y stuff to discuss. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, you have thirty minutes to solve the puzzle!

Also, I’m @NeilWeinberg44 on Twitter, so follow me there and contact me that way if you have questions during the week.

Neil Weinberg: Hey! Let’s chat.

Neil Weinberg: I’ll be here until at least 4, but as usual, more questions = more chat! Math already, oh brother

Comment From dbet
When I search for team stats and sort by the “Off” category for runs, there are a significantly more negatives than positives. Why does it work out this way on a number based around average?

Neil Weinberg: One thing is pitchers, who are terrible. But mostly, -20, -20, and 40 average out to 0 even if there are more negatives

Comment From august
Hey Neil! It’s me, August Fagerstrom, FanGraphs author! What counts as a “defensive game” in UZR/150? I assumed nine innings but, in doing my own calculators, it appears to be slightly off. Any clue how UZR/150 is calculated?

Dave Cameron: I’m back for our regular Wednesday chat fest. You know the drill: queue is open, and we’ll start in 15 minutes.

Comment From Romelu Lukaku
White Sox beat writers (and broadcasters) are making it sound like Carlos Rodon will debut in September. Do you have any idea why they would start his service clock in a lost season?

Dave Cameron: Because there’s little real difference to giving him 25 days of service time. It’s not going to affect his arbitration or free agent eligibility.

Comment From Paul
Re Gordon article: I was surprised that you didnt mention replacement values. It is easier to shine when compared to left fielders than when you play CF so it affects the replacement value and hence the WAR

Dave Cameron: This simply isn’t true. Read the primer on positional adjustments in the FG Library.

Comment From Mike Nakamura
I was hoping you could explain something to me: The Blue Jays rank 12th in starters’s WAR, despite being in the 20th area of FIP. Is the difference there entirely due to park factors, or are there other factors I’m missing? I have read the fangraphs primer on pitching WAR and it was not clear to me.

Jeff Sullivan: This time wasn’t my fault! This time I couldn’t get the Cover It Live website to load!

Jeff Sullivan: Which, actually, could’ve been my fault somehow. But it wasn’t a deliberate act of tardiness.

Jeff Sullivan: So let’s talk about real baseball and not fantasy baseball unless by fantasy baseball you mean the slim odds of a White Sox 2014 division title

Comment From Andy
Lies

Jeff Sullivan: You’ll never know!

Comment From Guest
There are almost 200 million people in Brazil, why is baseball underdeveloped there?