Dan Szymborski: Ack, I’m here!

Dan Szymborski: Got lost fuming on Twitter

Placido Polanco fan club president: Just read Ben Clemens’ article about team depth. Don’t the ZiPS projected standings account for depth? Does ZiPS handle depth differently than the way proposed in Ben’s article?

Dan Szymborski: Sort of. ZiPS always has a generalized model that varies the playing time availability of top players so sometimes those Plan Bs or Cs or Ds get a lot more playing time than you expect

Dan Szymborski: For example, in that one run in the AL projections that I alluded to for the O’s, the O’s mostly ended up with David Banuelos and Michael Perez catching

Harry Lime: Can you suggest any articles that talk on late round players for deep drafts? thx

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chats. I have a piece up today illustrating the weakest positions on NL contenders — sort of a preseason Replacement Level Killers list — with a companion AL piece to follow soon. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-weakest-positions-on-national-league-c…

Jay Jaffe: On Sunday I covered the Cody Bellinger signing https://blogs.fangraphs.com/options-options-cody-bellinger-returns-to-…

Jay Jaffe: and last Friday i took a look at the Mets’ rotation in light of the Kodai Senga injury https://blogs.fangraphs.com/with-kodai-senga-injury-mets-rotation-alre…

Jay Jaffe: With the caveat that I may have to duck out for a few minutes soon when our painter arrives, let’s get on with it.

Jay Jaffe: (We had our living room, dining room, and kitchen painted yesterday! Facelift for the whole first floor!)

Idiotic Failson: Regarding the Yankees still being potentially interested in Snell – I want owners to spend money as much as the average fan and feel that owners too often hoard their team revenue. That said, let’s say that the Yankees spend $25mm/year on Snell. That brings their commitment this year to him to close to $60mm and their payroll to close to $400mm. Can they really afford to run $400mm payrolls (necessary or not) regularly? Am I wrong in thinking that signing Snell might actually be unreasonable?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe! Thank you for checking out all of our Prospect Week work for the site, including this chat.

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s get right into it.

Andrew: You’re a bit lower on Colt Emerson than a lot of the industry it seems. What does he need to show to get up into that ~50 range? And thoughts on Jeter Martinez?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Emerson a lot, ideally he performs a little better versus belt-high fastballs going forward. Jeter is an 18-year-old Mexican DSL arm sitting 92-93 touching better than that, slider will flash. Long-term dev project, last I saw arm action was super long

Jesse: Do the Mets have a top farm system after eating all that money for prospects during the trade deadline last year?

Eric A Longenhagen: More like tier 2 behind Cubs, BoSox

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and thanks for stopping by today’s chat. It’s a snow day here in Brooklyn, with about 8″ of total snowfall in the city but a lot of it already melting. I’m fresh off having built our first backyard snowman with my daughter.

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: About an hour ago, my piece on Jurickson Profar’s return to San Diego went live (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jurickson-profar-rejoins-the-padres-not-so…). If you’re reading this, you have a pretty good chance of getting playing time in the Padres’ outfield this season because there’s not a lot of experienced competition.

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, it’s been a few weeks since I did one of these, so on with the show…

Not a huge fan: Hi Jay, I’m generally not a huge fan of your stuff, but just wanted to say thanks for taking the time to chat!

Jay Jaffe: Gosh, thanks for that. I’m generally not a huge fan of people who take the time to say that they’re not huge fans of me (or any of my colleagues), so, uh, have a nice day I guess.

Dan Szymborski: If you can’t do the chat time, don’t do the chat crime

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know what that means either, like most things out of my mouth

the person who asks the lunch question: what’s for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing, this isn’t an eating Thursday

Andy Dufresne: Are you bullish on Correa exceeding his projections now that the foot (and septum) are fixed?

Dan Szymborski: Mildly so? I tend to be skeptical over “OK, this fixes the injury thing for good” things

Dan Szymborski: It’s a chat!

The person who asks the lunch question: What’s for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: Egg salad sandwich

Daniel: What kind of year do you expect from Corbin Burnes? Will we ever see a year from him again like his 2021?

Dan Szymborski: That’s not the *average* result, but the chance is certainly there

Dan Szymborski: I do think he’s slightly down from his highest peak

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and happy Hall of Fame election results day!

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a lot on my plate today but since my chats have been so scarce lately i figured I’d spend a bit of time answering questions here as a way to burn off some nervous energy. Hall of Fame and hot stove q’s take precedence. Speaking of hot stoves, our new range arrived today, replacing the 20+ year piece of junk that this house came with. it had better heat more evenly!

Jay Jaffe: Here’s my look at our Hall of Fame crowdsource ballot results and a preview of election day https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-envelope-please-our-2024-hall-of-fame-…. I’ll obviously have more this evening

Jay Jaffe: And here’s a Twitter thread linking to the most likely honorees and a few other key pieces in this year’s series https://twitter.com/jay_jaffe/status/1749868791738097982

OK, on with the show

Refugee: FanGraphs voters are small hall? What the heck?

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t exactly say that. While the two candidates elected in this year’s crowdsource poll was fewer than in any of the previous five years, voters averaged just shy of 8 names per ballot; it’s just that those were spread more widely than we’ve seen