Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, it’s been a crazy busy day and I only noticed a few minutes ago that the chat notification didn’t show up on the home page or on Twitter. We’ll see if we can get a critical mass by 2:15 pm ET. Thank. you for your patience!

Jay Jaffe: OK, since there are at least some questions in the queue that will be fun to answer, I’m going to do a short chat.

Greg: A player exactly like Barry Bonds has an identical career as him. He gets voted into the HoF. On the day before induction, he comes out that he used PEDs every single day – is the induction cancelled?

Jay Jaffe: No way. It would be a logistical and public relations nightmare for tens of thousands of people and dozens if not hundreds of area businesses. There’s a sign in the HOF plaque gallery about the membership and the information the plaques reflecting the best available information at the time; this would fall under that category (and the language on that sign might be tweaked).

Led Tasso: Really enjoy your HoF below 5% posts; when will they be announcing the Hall voting results?

Jay Jaffe: The results show on MLB Network will air at 6 PM on Tuesday, January 24. I think it takes about 10-15 minutes to cut to the chase

Dan Szymborski: The appointed time in the prophecy has been reached.

Nick: What would a Gleyber Torres extension look like?

Dan Szymborski: They’d offer him a set number of dollars in return for a set number or seasons!

Dan Szymborski: (Sorry, it’s opening)

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS would offer 5/119 or 6/138

Rizz: Does ZiPS just not care about exit velo/barrel data much? Carlson’s statcast numbers were about as bad as you can get last year, yet ZiPS isn’t forecasting much of a regression. Nootbaar is essentially the inverse, yet ZIPS didn’t think his performance was sustainable. Two of many instances I’ve pinpointed over the last few weeks

Dan Szymborski: CONGRATULATIONS, ITS A CHAT!

Cat Latos: How do my cat friends do?

Dan Szymborski: Mercutio is on my office couch looking stupid, Justinian left to go upstairs, Constantine is asleep in the living room overlooking the kitchen as he stakes out dinner, and Cassiopeia is in the spoon of the cat tree sleeping last I checked.

Champdo: What do you think of the players the Tigers got back in the Soto deal?

Dan Szymborski: Meh.

Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a lot to not like about Soto’s command, but I rather have a sorta prospect than what are essentially established role players

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first chat of 2023!

Jay Jaffe: Happy New Year to you all

Jay Jaffe: I’m in the midst of the one-and-dones on this year’s Hall of Fame ballot, players who won’t get the 5% needed to stick around for another year but whose careers merit a proper sendoff. Today it was Andre Ethier https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-andr…

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday it was Jacoby Ellsbury https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-jaco…, and on Wednesday it was R.A. Dickey, a piece that was particularly fun to write https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-r-a-…

Jay Jaffe: Of course, it wouldn’t be a First Chat of the Year if there weren’t some technical glitch that needs my attention for a minute…

Jay Jaffe: OK, finally got the banner to show up atop the home page, something I tend to forget to check

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks!

Jay Jaffe: Welcome to what will be a brief Friday chat due to previous commitments

John: How much $ did Arenado leave on the table by opting out? Seems like they did not anticipate this hot of a market

Jay Jaffe: That’s a very good question. The market does seem to have taken off in ways that nobody seems to have anticipated. We’ve seen a lot of teams dilute AAVs via longer deals (who’s to say where any of us will be in 11 years?) but Ben Clemens also had a very good piece on interest rates and inflation that even a dullard like me could understand https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-are-teams-issuing-extremely-long-contr…

ChadT: What are the Dodgers doing?

Jay Jaffe: that’s a good question. I wish I had a better answer than “waiting to see how much of T***** B****’s back salary they might owe if he wins his arbitration case” but here we are. The Syndergaard deal seems OK but if they could have kept Tyler Anderson at the 3/$39M he took from the Angels that would have been better

Eric A Longenhagen: Happy Friday, everyone. I’m gonna give it a minute for questions to flood the queue since I posted the chat close to noon.

Eric A Longenhagen: Please enjoy as I post some links from this week’s stuff. Twin Peaks Theme – YouTube

Eric A Longenhagen: Wrote about NPB players here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/update-to-the-board-npb-prospects/

Eric A Longenhagen: A long analysis of Kodai Senga here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mets-bolster-rotation-sign-kodai-senga/

Eric A Longenhagen: KBO players here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/update-to-the-board-kbo-prospects/

Eric A Longenhagen: International amateurs here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/board-update-2023-international-amateur-pr…

Dan Szymborski: And here we are!

Nolan F: Gotta ask cuz we are already hearing rumblings…do you think there’s gonna be another lockout in 2027? Small/mid market owners are going to demand a hard salary cap because of Cohen

Dan Szymborski: I don’t anticipate labor peace

Dan Szymborski: Especially if, with so many teams over the CBT and the CBT only growing at 1.5%, teams are quiet in subsequent offseasons

Josh: Other than a fantastic 2017 International Class, how have the Guardians failed to produce in the international waters. Recent drafts shows they can identify young talent in America, is it just bad luck?

Dan Szymborski: While I wouldn’t say it’s *just* bad luck, luck inevitably plays some role in these things

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my Friday chat. Some minor technical stuff on this end so bear with me for a  couple minutes

Jay Jaffe: Sorry about that _ the chat wasn’t showing up on the home page banner, which make it harder for site visitors to know it’s happening. Anyway, now that it’s up, let’s get going. I’m rollin(s) on my BBWAA ballot profiles (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-jimm…), had Billy Wags yesterday (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-bill…). Hoped to get the Carlos Beltrán one out this week but there’s so much ground to cover and more care needs to be taken to get it to where I want it.

Jay Jaffe: I did a Twitter thread on the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot, whose results I’ll cover on Sunday

Jay Jaffe: and dug into the potential for cronyism now that the Committee voters have been announced https://blogs.fangraphs.com/in-naming-the-era-committee-members-the-ha…

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, on with the show

Kyle B: even if Judge re-signs with the Yanks, do you think they’ll still pursue Turner, Bogaerts or another star?