Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my Friday chat. I’ve got a piece today about notable second-half slides that have crowded the Wild Card race https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-second-half-slides-that-have-crowd…, and earlier this week, I wrote about Team Entropy (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/team-entropy-2021-lets-get-wild/), Max Scherzer (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzer-chases-perfection-and-collect…), Ryan Braun’s retirement (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ryan-brauns-complicated-legacy/)

Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the show

Fat Spielberg: Do you think it’s true that Steve Cohen’s tweeting has hurt the Mets chances of hiring decent FO people?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think it’s helped that cause, to say the least, but I think the bigger problem is that the organization just reeks of a dysfunctional culture, and the most prominent person in common to the Wilpon era and the Cohen one is Sandy Alderson, who’s apparently returning despite three notable hiring gaffes that blew up in the team’s face. I don’t see how you’re going to land an Epstein or a Beane if Alderson is still in place.

Fat Spielberg: I’ve heard a lot of people this season call Bryce Harper a future first ballot HoFer. I don’t necessarily disagree, but when I look at his comps on bbref, it’s a group of really good players, but only one HoFer in the group (Reggie Jackson. And Barry Bonds.) Are people jumping the gun, or has this season (which I assume isn’t used in those comps) pushed him over the edge?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think Harper has come close to guaranteeing first-ballot status but his early start put him on a Hall of Fame path, and the way he’s played over the past two seasons has helped get him back onto it after his progress was slowed. Wrote about him in this context here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ten-position-players-who-have-most-helped-…

Dan Szymborski: And happy Thursday!

Dan Szymborski: The last 9/16/21 of your lifetime.

Dansbee: Dank Schwindel

Dan Szymborski: Dank Frank Schwindel or Dank Dizzy?

The Great Giambino: I have been having an intense argument with my friend and need your take: is a taco a hotdog and therefore a sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: No

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon folks, and welcome to another edition of my Friday chats. I’m just back from a bit more than 48 hours in Cooperstown for the Hall of Fame induction ceremony; I wrote about the Class of 2020’s long road there https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-hall-of-fames-class-of-2020-nears-the-…

Jay Jaffe: While in Cooperstown I put together Twitter threads on the 10 Hall of Famers who died in 2020-21, each of whom I covered at FanGraphs

Jay Jaffe: and another of highlights of my 1-hour blaze through the Hall to see some old favorites and new exhibits

Jay Jaffe: Today I kicked off the annual Team Entropy series https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/team-entropy-2021-back-to-somewhat-nor…

Jay Jaffe: and now, on with the show…

bob: Is Yadi the next catcher going to Cooperstown?

Dan Szymborski: And the chat has started, at the promised time!

Mike: I think it’s become pretty clear that Kyle Tucker is a top 30 player in baseball (5 OAA, 143 wRC+, .402 xwOBA, 1.5 BsR). When do you see him making the jump to top 20? End of 2022?

Dan Szymborski: Development isn’t always a neat little line!

Dan Szymborski: Though 2022 seems like a good bet.

Who’s Fabio?: Hey Dan – CY candidate Robbie Ray’s success this season is due to his tight fitting uniform (obviously). Can the neural network explain how and why  this works for Ray?

Dan Szymborski: Sure, let me run this while I answer a few more questions.

Who’s Fabio?: Hey Dan – can the neural network simulate what the CBA talks are going to look like?  In it’s own unique way of course.

Dan Szymborski: Hits too close to home!

Dan Szymborski: Morninternoon everyone!

Dan Szymborski: A few minutes late, I was grabbing Wander Franco comps.

Dan Szymborski: Reyes is up there, but so are a number of the triple guys – Vaughan, Lazzeri, Frisch, Furcal, Fernandez

Matt: Bryce Harper: Under/Accurately/Over rated?   Also at what point do you think NL East is decided?

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my Friday chat!

Jay Jaffe: a bit of housekeeping while the queue fills up… today I’ve got a piece on Shohei Ohtani’s 45-degree, 110.7-mph homer from yesterday, and a dive into some other Statcast extremes https://t.co/HvBXV8OuR5

Jay Jaffe: Earlier this week, I wrote about the Yankees’ “Jumbo Package” outfield of Joey Gallo, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton http://blogs.fangraphs.com/jumbo-package-helps-power-the-yankees-into-…. I also paid tribute to the late Bill Freehan, an 11-time All-Star catcher who got particularly shabby treatment by Hall of Fame voters http://blogs.fangraphs.com/remembering-bill-freehan-the-thinking-mans-…

Mork Borg: Chris Sale had his 3rd immaculate inning last night (9 pitches – 3 Ks), something only Kofax had accomplished before. Which made me think, “Sale is such a great pitcher. What will he need to do to make the hall?”

Jay Jaffe: I think that if he gets to a major milestone (3,000 strikeouts or 200 wins) he has a decent chance, but from a JAWS standpoint, he either needs a couple more very big seasons or some serious longevity. From his B-Ref page:

Starting pitcher (124th)
46.1career WAR |39.57yr-peak WAR |42.8JAWS |5.7WAR/162
Average HOF P (out of 65):
73.3 career WAR | 50.0 7yr-peak WAR | 61.7 JAWS | 4.5 WAR/162

Jay Jaffe: a Cy Young would help, though it’s not essential (see Mike Mussina)