Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the first 2022-23 offseason edition of my chat. I’m not sure if this is the Hot Stove or the smoldering wreckage of Twitter, but here we are. I’ve been covering the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot this week, with entries on Fred McGriff, Rafael Palmeiro, Albert Belle, and Don Mattingly, all of which you can get to via the nav bar here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c…

Jay Jaffe: Next up is Dale Murphy, which will run Monday because I added some Deep Thoughts that were brought about by the advent calendar of bad behavior by some of the others on this ballot. I also covered Anthony Rizzo’s return to the Yankees https://blogs.fangraphs.com/anthony-rizzo-heads-back-to-the-bronx/

Malcolm Nunez: Hi Jay is Goldy a lock for the Hall now?

Jay Jaffe: I was just looking at his page a little while ago, prompted by a similar question from MLB Network Radio pal Mike Ferrin. I wrote about Goldschmidt’s progress in mid-July (https://t.co/IydUWFrx7r) after which he continued to mash even with a September slump, which is why he’s the NL MVP

Jay Jaffe: Here’s how he looks via JAWS:

First Base (18th):
58.5career WAR |45.37yr-peak WAR |51.9JAWS |5.8WAR/162
  Average HOF 1B (out of 23):
    65.5 career WAR | 42.1 7yr-peak WAR | 53.8 JAWS | 4.9 WAR/162

Jay Jaffe: That peak score is 13th all time, nestled between Frank Thomas and Miguel Cabrera. I’d say that the heavy lifting for Goldschmidt is over, and that he’s on his way provided he gets the remaining 250 hits he needs to reach 2,000 (which he in all likelihood will)

Eric A Longenhagen: Hi everyone, hope you’ve had a good week. Please check out my East division 40-man deadline day thoughts if you have not, more is on the way next week, and then we’ll get into prospect lists.

Dan: Considering your top 100 ranks, do you see Joey Ortiz having a greater 2023 impact than Jordan Westburg?  Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Not necessarily. If Jorge Mateo keeps playing well but Ramon Urias does not while Westburg keeps raking in the minors, then I could see a scenario where Westburg plays and not Ortiz.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ortiz skill foundation is partially his defense (the other is all the contact), and with the shift banned that becomes more important. His 50 FV is a bet on his long-term fit as an average everyday shortstop, Westburg certainly has more power than him, and his FV may change this offseason as my thoughts on what to do with these bat-first, shift-aided infield types solidifies.

Matt: Do you buy Jake McCarthy as an every day regular? I have a hard time believing his batted ball data will allow him to sustain his performance from last year

Eric A Longenhagen: I agree, even though he’s made some changes I think you have to lean on the xSLG, etc. to gauge how real the power output is. Probably a 4th OF type now, a half grade better than he was evaluated as a prospect.

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! And welcome to my first chat of November. That was one hell of a game last night. I wrote about Nick Castellanos’ ongoing struggles at the plate, something I had planned to do even before he wound up in the position to be the hero or make the final out. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/inevitably-game-5-found-the-slumping-nick-…

Jay Jaffe: (Elsewhere on the site, Davy Andrews has a look at Castellanos’ defense https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nick-castellanos-outshines-the-gold-glover…)

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I had a look at the ongoing outsized impact of home runs in the constricted offensive environment we see in October/November https://blogs.fangraphs.com/no-hitters-are-great-but-the-long-ball-sti…

Jay Jaffe: and now, on with the show…

sam: If judge leaves the Yankees (and the East), how would you rank the AL East teams for next szn

Jay Jaffe: Well, a lot would depend upon what the Yankees do to fill the void left by Judge’s absence, because it’s not like they’d go into the season without some other big bat or upgrades. But in terms of which team’s roster as it would stand looks the strongest  if they don’t retain their free agents, I suspect it might be the Blue Jays

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to a Game 3 chat that was supposed to be a Game 4 chat

Davy Andrews: RTJ said it best:

RTJ: Baseball!!

Ben Clemens: We’re having some technical difficulties on the site, but bear with us for a minute please

Davy Andrews: Important question as people start to log on to the chat: What did you and/or your loved ones dress as for Halloween?

David Appelman: It’s fixed. 🙂

Lzfreak: Hell yeah! Chats are back!

David Laurila: Greetings all. Go Astros. Go Phillies. Go baseball.

David Laurila: I got both a flu shot and a Covid booster yesterday, and am really dragging today, but fortunately I have a few energetic colleagues joining the chat shortly.

Dan Szymborski: Greetings peoples!

Justin Choi: Good morning from South Korea!

Alex Sonty: Man, Justin. I remember us getting up with you in 2020 to play KBO DFS.

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks!

Jay Jaffe: Apologies for the delay, I had a typo in my chat code

Jay Jaffe: Welcome to the my first solo chat of the 2022 postseason

Jay Jaffe: Bear with me for a moment while I get back on track. Today I’ve got a piece about the rebound of starting pitcher usage in the regular season and postseason https://blogs.fangraphs.com/postseason-starting-pitching-is-back-baby/

Jay Jaffe: Earlier this week I previewed the ALCS https://blogs.fangraphs.com/al-championship-series-preview-houston-ast… which required a quicker turnaround from ALDS Game 5 than I would have liked.

Jay Jaffe: And wrote about the Dodgers’ early exit and the increasing disconnect between the regular season and the postseason https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ousted-dodgers-drive-home-disconnect-betwe…

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to our NLCS chat

Ben Clemens: The gang is all here — and by that I mean Kyle, Davy, and me

Ben Clemens: Let’s answer some questions and enjoy a fun game

Dalton Wilcox: Love that you can say neither of these two were built the one and only Right Way

Ben Clemens: Yeah I am very excited for that

Ben Clemens: “Build your team just like the Padres” is an impossible sentence

David Laurila: Greetings all. Not sure tonight’s game can top what we just saw in Houston… but you never know.

RTJ: I know we’re gonna talk about Yanks-Guards tonight but can we take a moment to acknowledge the excellent weekend baseball? Of course, the awesome 0-0 game on Saturday, but then the most entertaining 6-0 game I’ve seen in a long time on Sunday.

David Laurila: The baseball has been good, and we have a lot more in front of us. October is fun. (Less so today if you’re a Mariners fan.)

Guest: Serious question – is Yordan Alvarez the best hitter in baseball?

David Laurila: No, but as that long ball reminded us, he’s on the short list.

stever20: Saw biggest play ever by WPA: Yordan Álvarez homer today (+91.4%)
Kirk Gibson homer in the 1988 World Series (+87.0%)
Jimmy Rollins double in 2009 NLCS (+82.9%)
Brett Phillips single in the 2020 World Series (+82.5%)