Jay Jaffe: Hey folks! Welcome to my Tuesday chat. Please hang tight for a moment as I’m in the midst of conferring with editors about today’s piece

Jay Jaffe: Ok, I’m back but please bear with me if there are further interruptions. My long-awaited-threatened opus — “How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Enjoy Batting Average Again” — is in the editorial pipeline. No, that’s not a joke, it’s a piece that’s five years in the making

Jay Jaffe: Since the Hall of Fame circus has left town, I’ve gotten back into the business of covering transactions via the Taylor Rogers trade (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/reds-trade-for-taylor-taylor-not-tyler-or-…) and the Max Scherzer signing (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-scherzer-takes-flight-to-toronto/)

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, I’ll link to today’s piece when it’s up. In the meantime, on with the show…

WinTwins0410: Jay, thanks for all your Hall of Fame coverage.  I know that through your research and writing — and reaching conclusions based on where the data and narratives take you — you have been more enthused about some Eras Committees picks in the past few years than about others.  My question: Recognizing that the only other way to get guys in after their BBWAA voting eligibility expires is via the Era Committees — flawed though they may be — is it better to get some of the guys you’ve *really* wanted in as a trade-off for having to accept the induction of some of the ones you think fall short?  Put another way, over the past decade-plus, do you feel like it has been worth it to you to see Dick Allen, Marvin Miller, Ted Simmons, Minnie Minoso, Ron Santo and Alan Trammell inducted if it has also meant the enshrinements of Dave Parker, Jim Kaat, Harold Baines and Jack Morris? (note that I didn’t mention Bud Selig lol)

Jay Jaffe: Thanks for the kind words. The results you cite are a mixed blessing, indeed, but the particularities of the first group lead me to prefer a more inclusive Hall of Fame to a less inclusive one. That said, I’d be happier with the concept of a Trammel/Morris trade-off if it also included Lou Whitaker

Eric A Longenhagen: Hi hello from Tempe, where the air is filled with the never-ending drone of leaf blowers.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m gonna start chat off on a somewhat confrontational note.

Eric A Longenhagen: There are (more this week than usual) lots of questions in my queue asking me to comment on other peoples’ work or opinions. Here are some examples:

Simpson: Why is Chandler Simpson (Tampa) not getting any love. The guy’s a 70 hitter with 80 speed—and he’s not on the top 100 anywhere. What am I missing about him?

Johnny: who are some prospects you are higher and lower on consensus in the bluejays system

Accudart: Dodger Ferris projections are quite varied…is his ceiling only sp3 or do you feel more .thanks

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! For the first time in awhile I’m on my second chat of the month, as the Hall of Fame election is now behind us

Jay Jaffe: Before I forget: I’m going to be part of Nick Pollock’s PitchCon this Friday at 3 PM, doing  — what else — a Hall of Fame-related presentation while helping to raise $ for ALS research https://pitcherlist.com/pitchcon/2025/

Jay Jaffe: Please check it out if so inclined

EonADS: Hey Jay, thanks for all the hard work you put in on the Hall of Fame information for Fangraphs each year. I know I certainly appreciate it.

Jay Jaffe: I’m very lucky to be in a position where FanGraphs give me as much space to cover the candidates and the Hall of Fame process. It’s a lot of fun, and i know it’s something people care deeply about. As I like to say, it’s been my dumb luck to happen upon a resource that is practically a renewable source of energy

Alby: Harold Baines and Dave Parker were excellent hitters, but most  consider them weak choices for the Hall of Fame. Does it feel like veterans’ committees have given more weight to offensive statistics than to other factors, making such players look more like HoF’s to them?

Jay Jaffe: Given that the Veterans/Era Committees are generally about 50% players, it’s not surprising that they default to the more mainstream statistics which are not only usually offense-related but also centered more around old-school stats (AVG-HR-RBI, W-L) than new-school ones. That’s a lot of what drives the choices — with less thought to defense

Jay Jaffe: which isn’t to say that WAR and JAWS don’t get mentioned – I’ve been told my stuff gets circulated in the room but that’s not to say it’s driving voters’ choices

Eric A Longenhagen: Hello from crisp Tempe where guys are cutting dead limbs off of trees on my street. Some of these big coniferous jawns haven’t been doing so well with temps being what they’ve been. When should I move?

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s chat.

Anne: Bullish on the offensive ceilings of Xavier Isaac and Laz Montes? Seen them slip in some rankings, but purely on offense still middle of the order type ceilings?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have been higher on Isaac than Montes. Montes doesn’t have enormous power. I know he’s huge, but he’s slugged more because of the leagues/stadiums he’s played in more than because of his raw power. He also has a sub-70% contact rate. Mariners prospects can be overvalued during the Modesto/Everett window and then perhaps people over correct when they get to Arkansas (which is a tough place to hit)…

Eric A Longenhagen: Isaac has elite power, but his swing is a mess and needs to change if he’s going to hit enough to be relevant. His ceiling, imo, is clearly higher than Lazaro’s because the power is lurking.

Fans MLB Forever: What do you think about the anonymous voters that the Cooperstown Hall of Fame has and what would be the solution or what do you think about the minimum vote for each ballot being 5 votes or more?

drplantwrench: are the dodgers the team with the highest ZiPS projection ever?  who is if they arent/where do they place?

Dan Szymborski: Oh yeah, welcome yada yada

Dan Szymborski: It’s still preliminary, but while the Dodgers have the highest ZiPS projected wins ever, it’s not the 2025 Dodgers that are likely to grab that, but the 2021 Dodgers at 99 wins

Ahoy: As a Pirate fan who’s used to the disappointment of, well, everything, I admit the rosy projections of Horowitz and Gonzales made me happy! You surprised by those?

Dan Szymborski: Not REALLY, but only that it’s difficult to really surprise me after doing this for 20 years!

drplantwrench: what do you think of the angels signing max scherzer to a big one year contract? they could use the SP and could be trade bait if/when their season falls apart