Dan Szymborski: SORRY I’M LATE I WAS MAKING MITCH HANIGER JOKES ON TWITTER

Jon: I tried to make a model to project break outs and I had zero luck. Any suggestions for a beginner?

Dan Szymborski: Project Arkanoid, it was a more successful Break Out!

Dan Szymborski: Sorry.

Dan Szymborski: It may be that you don’t have sufficient variables in your model to identify breakouts.

Chris: What do you make of manfreds comments about never intending to play more than 60 games? Seems like a dumb thing for a lawyer facing a grievance to say

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the latest Cape Cod-based edition of my weekly chat. We’re still awaiting word on the go-ahead for the wee 2020 season, and while i remain cautiously optimistic, I also know that Tony Clark and Rob Manfred are as likely to bury salad forks in each others’ eyes as to shake hands on anything.

Jay Jaffe: While the universal DH is expected to be part of this year’s agreement, it doesn’t yet appear to be a done deal for next year, as had been previously proposed. Nonetheless, I have a new piece today noodling on some DH candidates for NL teams https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-look-at-some-nl-designated-hitter-candid…

Scott: What impact do you think the universal DH will have on the trade market?

Jay Jaffe: It wouldn’t surprise me to see some contending AL teams make moves to shore up their DH spots if their current plans go pear shaped, but until we know about a trade deadline, I’m not sure we can expect much.

Pitch_Out: Remember way back when we were talking about hosting all MLB games in CA, AZ, FL, and possibly TEX? Seems like that would have been a bad call with the way COVID is rampant in those states in particular right now.

Jay Jaffe: Very much so. It’s an utter catastrophe what’s going on in those states, driven by irresponsible politicians.

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chat. It looks like we’re in a dark place today as far as the 2020 season is concerned, but I’m hearing a bit more optimism this morning (and afternoon) than I did last night, mainly because Manfred and the owners have put themselves in an untenable position and something has to give.

STT Fan: what do you think is the % chance we see MLB this year?

Jay Jaffe: I still think it’s above 50%. There’s just too much money for it not to happen, but man, getting a season off the ground has been and will continue to be ugly

Robert: Is Manfred somehow worse than selig?

Jay Jaffe: Been thinking about this a lot, and in some ways, it’s like trying to choose your least favorite child from among two failsons.

That’s the easy answer. The reality is that one has to remember that the commissioner isn’t an independent operator or neutral party. He serves as the representative of the owners, and so implicit in his actions is that he has the backing of three-quarters of them needed to stay in power.

For all of the dark places that Bud Selig took baseball, he was very skilled at marshaling a consensus among his fellow owners, satisfying their very disparate needs among big- and small-market owners, labor hawks and doves, et cetera, which is why he was able to stay in power so long and effect so much change.

Manfred doesn’t seem to have that knack, at least to the same degree, but it may also be true that he’s working with a worse set of owners — ones that realize they can take their teams into the tank without worrying about whether they’ll make a profit, and so on.

Guest: Jay, first off great job on Long Gone Summer. Second, who do we suspect are the 6 owners that don’t want to have a season are? OAK, CHC, LAA, PIT for sure, right? Who are the other two?

David K: Will Fred Wilpon own the Mets a year from now?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: Oh yeah, chat go start now.

Guest: the year is 2025. Who are the elite players

Dan Szymborski: LIkely the young elite players of today plus a few names that we don’t know yet

Dan Szymborski: Or, more accurately, we don’t know if they’ll be good or not