Archive for Daily Graphings

Over time, teams take on the characteristics of some of their key players in the minds of analysts and fans. The Rays are eternally linked with Evan Longoria, known for power taking precedence at the plate, with a focus on defense. Similarly, Ryan Braun is the poster child for the Brewers, a bat-oriented player without a material defensive presence.

This week and next, let’s allow the players themselves to fade into the background, and draw some conclusions from a simple set of numbers — namely, each of the 10 playoff clubs’ team ball-in-play (BIP) statistics, broken down by exit speed and launch angles. We’ll examine what made these teams tick during the regular season and allowed them to play meaningful October baseball.

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Earlier this morning, I wrote about the exploitable advantage the Indians’ offense ought to have against Blue Jays pitching in the ALCS, in that Toronto’s been notoriously susceptible to allowing stolen bases this season, while Cleveland’s notoriously successful in stealing bases themselves. And, while it’s not always true that good base-stealers are also good baserunners, it’s the logical line of thinking, and in this particular instance, it’s true.

We host a stat here on FanGraphs called Ultimate Base Running (UBR), which filters out stolen base attempts and focuses just on a player’s ability and efficiency in taking the extra base on hits and tagging up on fly balls. As a team, the Indians rank second in baseball in this measure, behind only the historic Padres. On an individual level, Jose Ramirez was baseball’s best baserunner. Rajai Davis ranked seventh, among 268 batters with at least 300 plate appearances. Jason Kipnis, Tyler Naquin, and Carlos Santana were all soundly above-average, and in fact, Mike Napoli and Chris Gimenez are the only members of Cleveland’s postseason roster that were soundly below-average at taking the extra base.

For more context, the league-average in taking the extra base on a hit is 40%. Cleveland ranked second, successfully taking the extra base on 45% of their hits, when possible. They led baseball in scoring from second on a single, doing so 129 times in 184 opportunities. Ramirez did this 18 times, while taking the extra base in 60% of his opportunities. Francisco Lindor scored from second on a single 17 times. There’s either speed, baserunning instincts, or a combination of both, all throughout Cleveland’s lineup.

This is simply one of the tents of this Cleveland team. Been that way all season. Nothing new here. Like the stolen bases, it only becomes interesting in the context of the upcoming series when you consider the opponent.

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Matt Strahm flirted with 80 mph in West Fargo, North Dakota. Now he throws mid-90s heat in Kansas City. The 24-year-old southpaw came a long way from undersized prep to overpowering Royals rookie.

A 21st-round pick in 2012 out of Neosho (Kansas) County Community College, Strahm jumped directly from Double-A to the KC bullpen in late July. He proceeded to set down opposing hitters with style. In 22 innings over 21 appearances, he fanned 30 and allowed just 13 hits. Only three earned runs went onto his statistical record.

Strahm started for the bulk of the past two minor-league seasons, and he will reportedly compete for a spot in the Royals rotation next spring. Wherever his future role, he has both an electric arm and a seemingly out-of-nowhere story. Strahm talked about both when Kansas City came to Boston at the end of August.

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Strahm on growing up in West Fargo: “Playing pro ball was always a dream of mine. That said, I was 6-foot, 150 pounds. I never lifted a weight. I was never on a throwing program. Baseball in North Dakota, our seasons are so short that you don’t really get to throw very much.

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In a few hours, the Dodgers and Nationals are going to play for their seasons; one team will advance, one will go home. The Nationals are in a pretty good position, hosting the game in Washington while throwing their ace, Max Scherzer; it’s hard to ask for much more than that if you’re in an elimination game. The Dodgers used their ace in Game 4, however, so they’re going to be mixing and matching in order to try win this one.

While they haven’t officially announced anything, the team is expected to start Rich Hill. Given his health track record, however, and the fact that he’s going on three days rest, they’re probably not going to have him work too deep into the game. In fact, reading the tea leaves from Andy McCullough’s game preview, it sounds like the Dodgers are going into this game planning for something of a tandem start.

“We talked about Rich as an option, obviously,” Manager Dave Roberts said after the Dodgers’ 6-5 win on Tuesday. “But so is Julio, and how we want to strategize to win Game 5, we’re going to talk through it.”

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The combination of Hill and Julio Urias is unorthodox, but it would reduce the chances of Washington’s top four hitters — Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth and Daniel Murphy — from getting comfortable at the plate against either. Hitters tend to perform better when they have seen a pitcher more than once in a game. The Dodgers will try not to allow that to happen on Thursday.

If the Dodgers are serious about limiting Hill and Urias to one trip through the order, that would be something indeed; they’d be limiting themselves to getting likely six or seven outs from each pitcher, and would be relying on the rest of their bullpen to get the other ~13 outs, despite being worked pretty heavily in both games in Los Angeles. It would be the most aggressive kind of bullpen game we’ve been expecting so far in the playoffs, but unfortunately for the Dodgers, I’m not sure how well set up they are to actually pull it off.

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The starting pitching staff of the Toronto Blue Jays possesses an inherent advantage over the lineup of the Cleveland Indians in the ALCS, in that Indians hitters do the brunt of their damage on offspeed and breaking pitches, while Blue Jays pitchers rely on the fastball moreso than any other team, as our own Eno Sarris wrote about earlier this morning. Both teams know this, and both teams will attempt to adjust accordingly in order to maximize or limit the effect of this matchup in their favor. That’s what happens in the postseason, when every little piece of information becomes that much more valuable.

Along those same lines, but on the flip side, there’s also a weakness shared by many of those same fastballing Blue Jays pitchers that perhaps no team other than the Indians is better suited to exploit. Whatever inherent disadvantage Indians hitters may have at the plate, they may make up for on the bases.

We saw what kind of an effect controlling the running game can have in the postseason when the Royals ran wild on Jon Lester and the A’s in the Wild Card game two years ago. And while none of the Blue Jays pitchers are quite at Lester-level mediocrity in this facet of the game, only three of Kansas City’s seven stolen bases in that game came against Lester. Part of it was Lester. Part of it were the relievers who replaced Lester. Part of it was the catcher, Derek Norris.

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A while back, August Fagerstrom noticed a near-historic aspect of the Cleveland Indians’ offense. They do really well against breaking and offspeed pitches. They led the non-Colorado division of baseball in slugging percentage against those pitches, and they had one of the most extreme splits as an offense against fastballs, as opposed to breaking/offspeed pitches, in the history of baseball. That’s quite a strength.

Of course, it’s a strength that belies a relative weakness on the other side. Take a look at how the Indians ranked in production against fastballs when judged by pitch-type values in the American League this year.

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The Indians finished the regular season fifth in total runs scored. They finished seventh in wOBA and sixth in wRC+, so it all kind of makes sense. The one thing that’s odd about it is that the Indians played pretty much the entire year without one of their best hitters. The Indians were 18th in runs in 2015, and then they lost Michael Brantley. As much as last year’s Brantley was slightly diminished, that still seemed like it should’ve been a massive blow.

For sure, this year’s Cleveland offense was powered by depth. It helped to have Jose Ramirez emerge in the way that he did. And there’s also the fact that the players can run — the Indians finished as easily the best baserunning team in the American League. There are so many different things that make the lineup tick, but there’s one aspect that isn’t talked about enough, one thing that makes the Indians out to be better than the sum of their parts.

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Javier Baez is the Chicago Cubs’ current starting second baseman. It’s a new role for him. In four postseason games, he’s made four starts at the position. By contrast, he’d already played 38 regular-season games before he made his fourth start at second, on June 2. It’s not a role he took over at the All-Star break or even later in the season, like teammate Addison Russell did at shortstop last year. Baez made just 38 starts at the position all year long, and as the team prepped for playoffs in September, Baez received just six starts at second base in the final month. Baez’s versatile regular season — as well as the versatility of other Cubs teammates like Kris Bryant and Ben Zobrist — prepared for any role in the postseason, and that versatility enabled by Joe Maddon has played an important role in the team’s success.

Baez is the most shining example of that versatility on the Cubs. He’s played more than 25 games at each of second base, third base, and shortstop — one of only 68 players in history to accomplish that feat, per the Baseball Reference Play Index. While it isn’t so unique that Jedd Gyorko and Darwin Barney weren’t able to also do it this season, Baez’s age is a differentiating factor. Turning 24 years old in December, only Joe Dugan and Rogers Hornsby nearly a century ago accomplished the feat at a younger age (both by just a few months). Baez is also one of only 66 players in history to record at least 50 games at both second and third base. Given that he’s the only name on both lists, it appears safe to say he’s the only player in baseball history with at least 25 games at shortstop, 50 games at second base and 50 games at third base.

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The Cubs just moved past the Giants in four games, and over those four games, Javier Baez batted .375, with a .974 OPS. He drove in the only run of Game 1 with a late and dramatic solo dinger, and he drove in the winning run of Game 4 with a late and dramatic line-drive single to center. Even given Baez’s offensive heroics, I’m going to remember him for one play he made in the field, a play that didn’t even ultimately result in an out.

A good number of ballparks across the country have setups where fans can try to throw pitches in front of a radar gun. On the primary level, it functions as fleeting entertainment — here, see how hard you can throw it, and we’ll even give you three chances. It’s a weird way to spend five dollars, but, how often does one get to be objectively measured? That part’s appealing, but there’s also a subliminal element. The radar gun works as an advertisement for the product on the field, because it isn’t until a fan gets measured that said fan begins to realize how extraordinary the players really are. It’s kind of a Dunning-Kruger thing; people happily underestimate the difficulty of throwing accurately, with speed. The worst pitcher in the major leagues is amazing. The worst pitcher in Single-A is amazing.

It’s been some years since I was measured, myself, and, granted, I didn’t exactly prepare. I also hadn’t pitched regularly since high school. But I did pitch, and I’ve got a long body, so you’d think I could do okay. When I stepped in, my first pitch was 68. My second chance sailed in at 71, and then I muscled up for my final, explosive delivery. It was also 71. I then returned to my seat, a little more sore than I used to be.

Yesterday, Javier Baez got to this Denard Span grounder up the middle.

It was enough that Baez got to the ball. It was enough that he handled it cleanly. But then Baez got to his feet — or, more accurately, his foot. Baez had his left leg off the ground. His right foot pointed to third base. He twisted his torso to throw the ball to first while airborne, all the while falling backward. Not only was Baez’s throw somehow on the money. The ball left his hand at 72 miles per hour. Javier Baez is amazing.

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Last week, both Jeff and I wrote about the Orioles and BaseRuns. Jeff said this towards the end of his piece:

In four of the last five years, the Orioles’ BaseRuns record has been better than the projected record by at least six wins. In the fifth year, they were the same. The point being, the Orioles have knocked their projections out of the park, and they’ve done it far more than anyone else.

I ended my article with the following quote:

Haven’t [the Orioles] overperformed their BaseRuns wins for many years now? Yes, they have. But they’re overperforming at run prevention, not run scoring.

That night, Buck Showalter thumbed his nose at us both. Specifically, he mocked and derided the concept of run prevention by refusing to use his best run preventer in a tied elimination game with one out and runners on the corners. That refusal hurt the team’s chances of winning in a high-profile way. And thus another Orioles team bit the dust.

Given what happened, the prospect of talking about the Orioles and run prevention makes me twitch. But I’ll suppress it because there’s some interesting analysis here. Onward!

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