Archive for Daily Graphings

When Jerry Dipoto met with the Mariners, and when they decided to hire him, they discussed a plan that would have the team avoid any kind of major rebuild. Retooling is a different process, and currently the Mariners’ process, but the goal is for the team to be competitive. So Dipoto has been busy modifying the roster, with 2016 in mind, and now we have another pair of transactions, the latest finalized just earlier Wednesday. From the A’s, the Mariners added Evan Scribner, which cost them Trey Cochran-Gill. From the Brewers, the Mariners added Adam Lind, which cost them Daniel Missaki, Carlos Herrera, and Freddy Peralta.

Unless you’re unusually knowledgeable about the minor leagues, you don’t know those names. They aren’t the names of high-level prospects, but then, that’s been among the issues — Dipoto hasn’t had a strong system from which to draw. Trading for Wade Miley cost him an arm out of the major-league bullpen. Dipoto is limited, by money, and by the various failures of the preceding administration. So here we are now, with the Mariners adding another two players of moderate interest, each with obvious flaws.

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With the title of this post, I have given myself an admittedly difficult task, given most comments about this trade since it went down. Arizona traded two top-100 prospects, including one player in the top 25 (at least), as well as a proven major league outfielder in exchange for a somewhat inconsistent pitcher, albeit one coming off a three-win season and with three more years of control. For the most part, everybody is beating up on the Diamondbacks — and for good reason: we don’t know the internal valuations the Diamondbacks possess on their own players and players outside their organization, but there is a general consensus that whatever those valuations are, they do not match up the rest of baseball. As a result, they have undersold their assets compared to the rest of the market. If we take out the external valuations of players like Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair, and Ender Inciarte, can we make a case that, internally, the decision might have been sound?

What I am trying to get at is this: the trade value on the open market for Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair, and Ender Inciarte is much greater than one Shelby Miller, but if you are the Diamondbacks and presented one choice and one choice only, how do we get to a spot where you choose Shelby Miller over Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair, and Ender Inciarte?

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Check out the MLB Trade Rumors page for Justin Upton, and you find something strange. Since a report on November 13 that the outfielder had been extended a qualifying offer, Upton has been invoked just three times there — in one case, with the Angels, merely to note that “nothing is happening” between Upton and the club. Los Angeles was merely engaged in “ongoing conversations” with Upton’s representatives. Whether those conversations are about a possible contract or fondue, no one knows. They’re having conversations.

Now check out the Ben Zobrist page. Even before signing last night with the Cubs, his name was ubiquitous across the site.

And that’s weird. One is 34 and was worth two wins last year. The other is 28 and was worth almost twice as much. You’d think the rumor count would be reversed.

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Earlier today, I published a post profiling a few of the hitters whom KATOH likes and who will be available in this week’s Rule 5 draft. Below, I repeat that exercise for pitchers.

As I did earlier, I will once again note that KATOH’s output isn’t perfectly aligned with what makes for a good Rule 5 pick. An interesting prospect might not be worth taking in the Rule 5 if he’s very far away from the big leagues. Similarly, there are there are older guys who might be able to help a big league team, but don’t grade out well according to my prospect model due to their age. In other words, this compilation of names is skewed more towards guys on the young end of the spectrum, and not necessarily towards guys who are most likely to contribute in 2016.

Identifying eligible Rule 5 players isn’t completely straightforward, so I can’t promise I didn’t miss a name or two along the way. But at the very least, I can assure you this piece contains most of KATOH’s favorite pitchers who will be available on Thursday. Immediately below, you’ll find the names of seven pitchers who are relatively close to being big league ready. Below that, you’ll find three more who are a bit further away. For each player, I’ve included his projection through age 28 based both on his 2015 stats and also 2014 stats.

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Seven Big League Ready(ish) Pitchers

Miguel Sulbaran, RHP, New York AL (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 2.3 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 1.2 WAR

Sulbaran pitched mostly at the Double-A level last year, where he turned in a solid 3.62 FIP. Sulbaran doesn’t strike a ton of guys out, but he’s allowed very few homers in the minors. The end result was a perfectly acceptable performance as a 21-year-old in Double-A. He’s also a lefty, which might appeal to teams looking to add one of those to their bullpen.

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The Winter Meetings are underway in Nashville, which means all 30 GMs are under the same roof for a few days. As you’re probably aware, this has already resulted in a few high–profile transactions. Less interestingly, this also means the Rule 5 draft is upon us.

Below, I touch on a few of the available hitters who catch KATOH’s eye. Keep in mind that KATOH is designed to identify the best prospects overall, so it’s output isn’t perfectly aligned with what makes for a good Rule 5 pick. An interesting prospect might not be worth taking in the Rule 5 if he’s very far away from the big leagues. Carlos Tocci, who features an interesting profile but is unlikely prepared for the majors, is this year’s embodiment of that phenomenon.

Similarly, there are there are older guys who might be able to help a big league team, but don’t grade out well according to my prospect model due to their age. Some prime examples from this year’s class are Jabari Blash and Balbino Fuenmayor. Yes, I chose those two as examples due to their double-plus names. I didn’t touch on players like Blash or Fuenmayor here, though, since they’re slightly outside of KATOH’s wheelhouse. If they’re selected, I’ll take a look at them after the draft.

Identifying eligible Rule 5 players isn’t completely straightforward, so I can’t promise I didn’t miss a name or two along the way. But at the very least, I can assure you this piece contains most of KATOH’s favorite hitters who will be available on Thursday. Immediately below, you’ll find the names of seven hitters who are relatively close to being big-league ready. Below that, you’ll find three more who are a bit further away. For each player, I’ve included his projection through age 28 based both on his 2015 stats and also 2014 stats.

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Seven Big-League-Ready(ish) Hitters

Todd Glaesmann, OF, Arizona (Profile)
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2015 stats): 3.4 WAR
KATOH Projection Through Age 28 (2014 stats): 0.0 WAR

Glaesmann hit a powerful .278/.316/.540 in the minors last year, with most of those reps coming at the Triple-A level. The 6-foot-4 outfielder has struggled to make contact in the past, but slashed his strikeout rate to a respectable 19% in Triple-A last year. Glaesmann has succeeded at the Triple-A level, but his lack of consistent contact still makes it unclear how much he’ll hit in the big leagues. His atrocious 2014 campaign is also a blemish on his otherwise encouraging statistical track record.

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As everyone reading this is by now undoubtedly aware, Monday’s proposed blockbuster trade that would have sent Aroldis Chapman from the Cincinnati Reds to the Los Angeles Dodgers is on hold, following reports that the star closer was allegedly involved in a domestic incident with his girlfriend back in October. Although the Reds remain free to trade Chapman pending Major League Baseball’s investigation of the incident under the league’s new domestic violence policy, the market for Chapman is reported to have predictably dried up as teams wait to learn what type of punishment the pitcher will face.

It remains unclear how much, if anything, the Reds knew about the allegations against Chapman prior to Monday’s media reports, or if the team took any steps to notify potential trade partners of the incident. Nevertheless, the episode has raised questions regarding the extent to which teams are expected to disclose unfavorable information of this sort to one another during trade discussions.

As is so often the case, this is an area in which MLB operates a bit differently than most other industries.

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The reliever period of the offseason is over. We can now move on. Most of the league, it seemed, was waiting on Ben Zobrist’s decision before kicking their offseason into high-gear. Zobrist has made his decision. He’ll be going to the Cubs, on a four-year deal worth $56 million dollars. With Zobrist out of the way, you’ll soon begin hearing Yoenis Cespedes rumors, and Justin Upton rumors, and Alex Gordon rumors. Zobrist was the domino that needed to fall to set the rest of the offseason into action. That much is true for the Cubs, too.

With Zobrist in the fold, the Cubs held an obvious surplus of talent. Too many players for too few positions. The Starlin Castro rumors and the Javier Baez rumors had persisted for so long, and it was clear the Cubs had something else lined up when they agreed to terms with Zobrist. Within the hour, Castro had been shipped to the Yankees for righty Adam Warren and veteran utility man Brendan Ryan.

Castro is simply the fallout from the Zobrist move. Castro’s owed $37 million over the next four seasons, and no longer had a position in Chicago. That’s pricey for a backup. Something had to give. The Yankees needed a second baseman, and the money isn’t much a factor to them, and so they were willing to part with a 28-year-old swingman with eye-popping projections and a utility man on the last legs of his career. Castro should be fine as the starting second baseman in New York, and it’s easy to forget he’s still just 25 years old. Between Castro, Dustin Ackley and Rob Refsnyder, the Yankees shouldn’t need to worry about second base. But the Yankees aren’t the interesting part of the action, here. The Cubs are.

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Just yesterday, we thought the Wade Miley trade might’ve been lopsided. And, you know, maybe. But now we’re on another level. Forget the Wade Miley trade. Now we have the Shelby Miller trade. Kudos to the Diamondbacks — they got Miller, who they wanted. They also got Gabe Speier, who is a player. But Miller didn’t come for free. In exchange, the Braves got Ender Inciarte. Also, the Braves got Dansby Swanson. Also, the Braves got Aaron Blair. Inciarte being a quality, cost-controlled outfielder. Swanson being last year’s first overall pick. Blair being possibly or probably a top-100 starter prospect who’s close to the majors. Don’t get me wrong, Miller is plenty interesting. He ought to help Arizona. Yet the trade looks like a clear, obvious mistake.

You always want to let the first impression settle. You always want to think these things through, to try to make sense from both sides if you can. Sometimes, though, you remain feeling how you initially felt. There’s a parallel you can draw here — the last time I felt like this about a trade, the Royals picked up James Shields. At this point, the Royals don’t regret what they did. There was a way for that to work out for them, just as there’s a way for this to work out for Arizona. But the Shields trade went almost as well for Kansas City as possible. And there’s no Wade Davis in this move. Inciarte might play the part of Wil Myers. Swanson might play the part of Wil Myers. There are two options, with Blair more or less playing the part of Jake Odorizzi. This could easily be a bigger haul, for very probably a lesser return. Occasionally there are bad trades. This is among the worst of them.

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It’s an interesting thing in life when we can look at someone’s behavior and immediately identify its causes based on what we know of their past. Like when an actor tries to do a serious movie because they’ve only been seen as a comedian, or when a guy hits 40 and rushes out to by that ’86 Firebird he’d wanted since he was 11. These things are easy to diagnose, no degree required.

So, too, with Dave Dombrowski’s first offseason in Boston. He’s spent the balance of the last decade, it seems, losing in the playoffs because his bullpen failed him when he needed it most of all. So how do you counteract that? Easy! Get all the best relievers, or a good number of them, anyway. That was easy!

First, there was the Craig Kimbrel deal which did two things. It (a) caused the internet to freak out because Dombrowski dealt a seemingly silly amount of prospects to San Diego, and (b) added Kimbrel to the Red Sox bullpen. Then yesterday he traded Wade Miley for reliever Carson Smith (covered here by Jeff Sullivan). It’s easy to picture Dombrowski sitting down for the first time in his Fenway Park office, visions of David Ortiz’s grand slam flying just beyond the outstretched glove of Torii Hunter flickering in his brain like an old newsreel. He grabs a napkin out of his pocket and jots down the word “bullpen” over and over until he builds up then pops a blister on his finger. “The most dominant, unimpeachable, and impregnable bullpen yet seen on earth will be mine,” he thinks, “just as soon as I find a band-aid. OW! That smarts.”

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