There’s something about the calendar flipping from April to May that makes it seem like the baseball season is somehow better realized, with the small samples and fluctuations of the opening frame left behind in favor of more stability. The cold days in the Midwest are less numerous; we now know the teams with a capacity to surprise, and the ones that never really had a shot. That sense of May stability is an artifact of our human desire to demarcate, to divide, and to end and begin things: the real truth is that every day is merely a day before and after another, moving relentlessly toward a finality — a month, a season, a career.

Our monthly divisions are a veil draped over the game to provide meaning where there may be none. Still, knowing the futility of our plight, we’re going to press on with that propensity for order and use the end of April to look back at changes between last month and last season in relation to one subset of data: movement of pitches. I’ll be looking at who had the biggest change in movement for their offerings between last year and this year, and perhaps we can glean some data related to whiff rate, batted ball breakdown, or other peripheral statistics that suit our fancy.

Finally, a reminder: more movement doesn’t always mean better results. It does make for entertaining data and visualizations, however. Today, we’ll go over fastballs, so we won’t have the gaudy swing and miss stuff that we’ll have tomorrow, when we’ll look at breaking balls and offspeed pitches. All stats are farmed from Baseball Prospectus’ PITCHf/x leaderboards. Today we’ll divide fastballs by four-seam and two-seam, as well as starters and relievers. As a baseline, I used a 500 pitch minimum for starters in 2014, and a 100 pitch minimum for relievers.

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The modern baseball statistical analysis revolution has largely been about one thing; weeding out the noise, and getting to the root of a player’s true talent. DIPS theory, which posited that the only things that pitchers truly should be held accountable for were strikeouts, walks and homers allowed, represented a major step forward, and brought terms like BABIP and FIP into the game’s lexicon. What those new metrics assumed, however, was that all other batted balls were more or less created equal. Now, with the advent of StatCast, we all know, publicly, that is not the case. Read the rest of this entry »

Lineup protection may or may not exist. Studies suggest it doesn’t, at least not statistically, but many within the game insist it does. In their view, the pitches a batter sees are influenced by the batter on deck. Almost all agree that situations play a role, but beyond that, just how much effect is there? The question was posed to six pitchers, four hitters, and two managers (both of whom are former catchers). Here are their responses:

Madison Bumgarner, Giants pitcher: “I should look over at the on-deck circle a lot of time, but my pride gets the better of me. I can’t remember a time that I looked over there and was actually smart about the situation. It should be that way. It’s a hard thing to do. You don’t want to give in, I don’t want to give in.”

Kevin Cash, Rays manager: “A lot of those questions have been asked about Longo (Evan Longoria). You have the guy who protects, you have the guy who gets the benefit of having protection, and then you have the really good hitter who does both. We factor in protection, but it’s not just having that one guy in front of him, or behind him. That’s not the driving force when making a lineup.” Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s watch a little MLB Gameday, you and I. I’ll select Saturday’s matchup between the Rays and the Orioles. Below, you’re going to see all four of Manny Machado’s plate appearances. Note that I could’ve selected Sunday’s game instead and demonstrated the same thing, but on Saturday, Machado faced more pitches. Four simple .gifs:

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It’s not just a spring-training blip anymore. For one or two games, you can dismiss a pitcher working with reduced velocity. Sometimes mechanics can be slightly off. Sometimes a pitcher can just be under the weather. Jered Weaver’s gone beyond that. His velocity was way down in spring training, and it’s carried over into each of his regular-season starts. Weaver is down a full three ticks, and that’s a dramatic decline between years. Unsurprisingly, he’s been bad — he’s struck out just one of every 10 hitters. One season ago, his rate was twice as high.

Between years, for starting pitchers, the biggest fastball velocity drop belongs to Derek Holland, and he’s on the disabled list. The second-biggest drop belongs to Henderson Alvarez, and he’s on the disabled list. The fourth-biggest drop belongs to Homer Bailey, and he’s on the disabled list. Weaver owns the third-biggest drop, and he says he feels fine. Which means there’s either something wrong that doesn’t hurt, or this is just what he is. This isn’t what he wants to be.

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At its best, baseball is an outdoor, summer sport. In order to fit 162 games and the playoffs into the calendar, Major League Baseball is forced to start in late March or early April and end in late October or early November when the weather is less likely to cooperate. Attendance is up roughly 500 fans per game in the early part of the season, and the fans have turned out in Kansas City and San Diego after a playoff run and an acquisition-rich offseason, respectively. MLB has publicized shorter games, although it is not clear what kind of effect that would have on attendance. All teams, especially those in the northern half of the country have been able to take advantage of good weather, and MLB should do its best to get fewer games played when the weather is not best for baseball.

Here is a graph showing average per game attendance through Sunday’s games, per Baseball-Reference.

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If there was one overarching theme of this last offseason, it was the surprise push towards contention from a lot of teams that didn’t quite look quite ready to win. The Padres were the most aggressive unexpected buyer, eschewing rebuilding to instead load up for a run in 2015, but they weren’t the only team to decide to capitalize on the current unprecedented level of parity in the sport. Over in the AL, the White Sox made a similar series of moves, bringing in Jeff Samardzija, Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, David Robertson, and Zach Duke in their offseason makeover. With Chris Sale and Jose Abreu at the top of their games, Rick Hahn decided to push in on 2015 and see if they could follow in the Royals footsteps.

The pre-season forecasts, though, never really bought into it. On Opening Day, our Playoff Odds page had the White Sox going 78-84, with just an 8% chance of winning the AL Central and a 6% chance of winning one of the two Wild Card spots; the Rangers and Twins were the only AL teams with a lower chance of reaching the postseason. There was a scenario where things broke right and the White Sox became legitimate contenders — the Astros are currently in the midst of that scenario at the moment — but it was going to require the team’s role players step up and fill some of the areas where the team was expected to get replacement level production.

That hasn’t happened.

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Back in February, there was some discussion about the transition from Triple-A to the majors, and whether that jump was getting any more difficult. It certainly seemed that way. Several highly-regarded minor leaguers completely flopped in their first tastes of big league action last year. Gregory Polanco, Jon Singleton, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and the late Oscar Taveras all didn’t hit a lick after tearing it up in the minors. And perhaps worst of all, Javier Baez — a consensus top 10 prospect heading into the year — hit a putrid .169/.227/.324 with an unsightly 41% strikeout rate.

Jeff Sullivan and Ben Lindbergh both looked into the validity of this phenomenon, and wrote response articles more or less debunking it. Both concluded that the gap between Triple-A and the majors wasn’t growing after all, or at least not in any meaningful way. So much for that.

However, after thinking about it for a while, I started to wonder if there might be other ways to explain the initial failures of guys like Baez. Perhaps it might be more informative to look at these transitions from a different angle: Not across time, but across skill sets.

Baez’s flaws were easily identifiable. He struggled to make contact, and also showed a tendency to chase pitches out of the zone. But perhaps his rough transition wasn’t unique to him. Maybe his skill set — his poor plate discipline and/or poor bat-to-ball ability — just doesn’t play well against major league pitching. If that’s the case, it might help us be wary of the next Javier Baez. Read the rest of this entry »

Like many broadcasters, Joe Siddall had a playing career before picking up a mic. Uniquely, he bridged the interim years as a batting practice pitcher for the team he rooted for growing up in Windsor, Ontario, Canada. Siddall now works alongside the legendary Jerry Howarth in the Toronto Blue Jays radio booth.

Windsor is across the river from Detroit, and the 47-year-old Siddall was a big Tigers fan. He attended a lot of games at old Tiger Stadium, and listened to Ernie Harwell and Paul Carey call many more. A lasting memory is being in the eighth grade and having his teacher confiscate his transistor radio. The future broadcaster was clandestinely attempting to listen to the game on opening day, in 1980.

Thirteen years later, Siddall was playing for the Expos. The first of his 24 big-league hits came in Montreal, against Frank Tanana, a former Tiger. His only home run came in 1998, wearing the uniform of his boyhood team.

“I hit it off the facade of the second deck, at Tiger Stadium,” recalled Siddall “The ball caromed back onto the field and Ken Griffey, Jr., who was playing center field, tossed it up into the stands. He had no idea it was my first career home run. The Tigers staff tried to get the baseball, but the fan didn’t want to give it up because Ken Griffey, Jr. had thrown it. After a bunch of negotiating, he finally did give it up.” Read the rest of this entry »

Milwaukee Brewers fans haven’t had much to get excited about this year. Their team’s 5-17 record is easily the worst in baseball, and with a BaseRuns differential of -45, it appears as though they’ve been about as bad as their record suggests. It’s unlikely the Brewers will continue to play this poorly, but it’s probably safe to say the they won’t be anywhere near the playoff race this fall. Our playoff odds calculator gives them a minuscule 1% of even making it into the Wild Card game.

The current iteration of the Brewers is pretty depressing — Adam Lind is literally their only player who’s hitting better than league-average. But despite their current struggles, Milwaukee has a few intriguing minor leaguers on the horizon, who represent beams of light for Brewers fans. One of those players is shortstop prospect Orlando Arcia. Kiley McDaniel deemed Arcia the Brewers best prospect over the winter, and the 20-year-old has lived up to that billing with a hot start to 2015.

Through 78 trips to the plate in Double-A Biloxi, Arcia’s hitting .409/.468/.545. This is obviously a very small sample of games, but still, a .409 batting average is pretty eye-popping. Arcia’s year-to-date numbers are almost certainly good enough to make us re-evaluate what we thought of him a month ago. Read the rest of this entry »