Archive for Daily Graphings

With the amateur draft just around the corner, I thought it would be worthwhile to check in on some of the players selected early on in last year’s amateur draft. At this point, most of these players have something close to a year’s worth of games under their belts. Obviously, all these players remain very much at the beginning part of their respective careers, and still have plenty of developing left to do. Their futures are far from set in stone. Still, their stats from the last calendar year should be able to give us a general sense of how good they are now and, by extension, how good they might ultimately become.

Let’s set the pitchers aside for now, and start off by looking at the first eight hitters taken in the first round last year. I’ll certainly take a closer look at some of these players in the future once they have larger bodies of professional experience against more advanced pitching. This is especially true of the ones who are performing well, and will likely be knocking on the door of the big leagues in the next year or so.

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Last year, I revisited Mike Fast’s “Lose a Tick, Gain a Tick” article and found how much a pitcher should expect to see his ERA, FIP and xFIP change with a velocity decline. Additionally, I found the rate of decline of strikeouts and walks. An interesting finding from the work was that FIP and ERA change by the same amount with a velocity decline while xFIP doesn’t follow the other two. I decided to examine some batted-ball stats to see which ones change when a pitcher’s velocity changes.
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We love to discuss and analyze hitting and we love to discuss and analyze pitching, but when it comes to fielding, we often just lump it in with pitching and move on to cleaning the kitchen or preventing the kids from setting the TV on fire. Well put down that sponge and don that flame-retardant suit because we’re going to talk about fielding!

A quick perusal of the AL Central standings reveals a few things. The Royals still think they are in the 2014 playoffs. The Twins don’t know they’re not very good. The Tigers don’t know they’re too old. The White Sox can apparently sign whomever they want and they’ll still be the White Sox. And at the bottom, Cleveland fields the ball like their gloves are made of actual gold. Contrary to anything awards-related you might have heard, this is not good. It is a problem for more reasons than irony and it is a primary reason the Indians are where they are in the standings.

But I’m presupposing here. Cleveland is allowing 4.6 runs per game. Only Boston (4.8) is giving up more among American League teams. The problem doesn’t sound like fielding; it sounds like pitching! Let’s see.

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For hitters, luck can sometimes explain a poor batting average on balls in play (BABIP), especially in short time frames. Players generally reach the majors with an apparent skill at hitting the ball hard enough and far enough so that hits drop around 30% of the time. If a hitter coming up through the minors lacks this ability, it’s very difficult for him to receive the promotions necessary to reach the majors. There are 126 active players in the majors with at least 3,000 plate appearances and every single one has gotten a hit on at least 27% of the balls that were hit in play. Since the beginning of 2011, however, Mark Teixeira has nearly 2000 plate appearances and he’s a hit on just 23% of balls hit in play, the lowest figure among MLB hitters with at least 1500 plate appearances. He’s the rare hitter who can survive without a decent BABIP.

The bottom of this season’s leaderboard in BABIP is littered with players getting off to rough starts, hitters who have lost their ability to hit major-league pitching, and Mark Teixeira.

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Joe Kelly always seems just a tweak away from greatness. He owns one of the biggest fastballs in the game, and has decent secondary pitches that don’t deserve scorn either. His command isn’t great, but he’s no Henry Rodriguez either. Throw a little bit more of one pitch, or a little bit less of another, the thinking has gone, and we’ll finally see greatness from the guy to match his athleticism and velocity.

You might have to admit that the latest tweak, suggested publicly by his manager, makes you wonder if there’s a fatal flaw that will forever keep the 26-year-old Red Sox starter from realizing his potential. It’s already the third such tweak that either the player or the team has discussed since they acquired him late last year.

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If you just look selectively at some of the names, it doesn’t seem so bad. So far this year, through a little more than a quarter of the season, Robinson Cano has hit about as well as Matt Kemp. He’s hit a little better than Troy Tulowitzki, and a lot better than Carlos Gonzalez and Chase Utley. Those are all names of proven star players! The problem being, they’re star players who’ve sucked. On the one hand, it’s encouraging to see these names near the bottom of the wRC+ list — it’s a good reminder that struggles can be perfectly normal — but that doesn’t make the struggles themselves any easier to tolerate, and in the case of Cano, his problems are among the factors contributing to the Mariners being a disappointment. It’s not that they’ve wasted a month and a half of Nelson Cruz hitting for Barry Bonds power, but they’ve accomplished less than you’d think.

Because of the team expectations, there’s more pressure than there usually is. Because of the enormity of Cano’s contract, there are more eyes on him than there usually are. And because of Cano’s age, there’s a bit more fear than you’d usually figure. The good news is there’s potentially good news. The bad news is we don’t know what to make of it yet.

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Breakout candidates are often identified on the pitching side either on the strength of peripheral stats which portend improvement over more conventional numbers, a strong second half, or some demonstrative change in a pitch. Sometimes, the candidates fulfill expectations and make those who stumped for them look like geniuses. Most of the time, however, the players meet their reasonable expectations and everyone moves on to another slew of potential breakouts. Poor seasons by breakout candidates tend not to get noticed, however, but rather ignored. Drew Hutchison spent the first month of the season looking like a breakout candidate that would soon be forgotten. He has spent the last few weeks attempting to turn around a rough start, culminating in a shutout of the White Sox during which he struck out eight without giving up a walk. Hutchison’s fastball has gained some life on it the second month of the season, providing some confidence that a breakout could still be in store.

Hutchison earned the breakout label by meeting many of the characteristics mentioned above. His ERA for Toronto in his first year of starting last year was 4.48, 10th worst in the majors among qualified pitchers, but his peripherals showed something a little better as his FIP was a middle-of-the-pack 3.85 and the difference between his ERA and FIP in 2014 was eighth-highest among qualified pitchers. His 23% strikeout rate was in the top 20, and his walk rate was decent. Hutchison’s peripherals made him look average instead of bad, although that alone is not what made Hutchison a potential breakout candidate.

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In the recent past, we’ve discussed many of the various aspects of the emerging granular batted-ball velocity/exit angle data that is all the rage today. Last week, we looked at the hitters with the best and worst contact quality in both the American and National Leagues; over the next couple weeks, it’s the starting pitchers’ turn, as we look at the best and worst contact managers in the game in 2014. Today, let’s look at the American League. You’ll notice that contact management was quite central to AL starting pitcher success last season.

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Clay Buchholz has the best strikeout and swinging-strike rate of his career! Clay Buchholz has a new changeup grip! Therefore his strikeout rate must be because of his new changeup? Maybe, but it’s not a linear thing. Nothing in baseball ever is.

The Red Sox pitcher did change from a four-seam changeup grip to a two-seam grip — look at Jake Peavy’s versions for a reference point — and the difference has been stark. Read the excellent Brian MacPherson on the subject, and then look at the change in horizontal movement from the changeup.

When Buchholz has thrown his four-seam changeup, it tended to have little side-to-side movement. It instead would mimic the path of his four-seam fastball and then dive straight toward the dirt as it neared the plate. What the two-seam changeup does is mimic the path of a two-seam fastball, fading horizontally at the end of its flight — in on righties, away from lefties.

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The MLB Network’s Brian Kenny wants to “Kill the Win.” As a FanGraphs reader, you’re certainly familiar with – and quite possibly supportive of – his stance. The stat is often misleading, and slowly but surely it’s becoming less of a barometer when assessing an individual pitcher’s performance. But should the win be “killed”? I recently posed that question to nine pitchers, two pitching coaches and a pitcher-turned-broadcaster. Here are their responses:

Chris Archer, Rays: “I don’t know if it should be killed. The emphasis behind it isn’t as great as people make it out to be. I think true baseball gurus, and players and management, know. It’s how a lot of fans may judge someone, but we know there’s not so much behind the importance of (an individual pitcher’s) win.”

Craig Breslow, Red Sox: “I don’t think it’s going anywhere. Unless we’re going to kill every single statistic, then we should spare the win. I don’t think you can make a good argument for killing a statistic for not telling the whole story. You just to have to explain it doesn’t give a comprehensive evaluation of the performance of a pitcher.” Read the rest of this entry »