Last week, the Twins got their dessert: they signed the top free agent in the market and installed him in the middle of the lineup. This week, they’re eating their vegetables, in the form of a one-year deal with Chris Archer:

Right-hander Chris Archer and the Minnesota Twins are in agreement on a one-year, $3.5 million contract, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Archer, 33, will join the Twins' rotation and can earn up to $9.5 million this season with performance bonuses.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 28, 2022

Those incentives are a modern-day version of a games started bonus. Archer will receive them based on the number of games he either starts or pitches three innings of relief in – basically starting or being the headliner after an opener.

I like the idea of this contract quite a bit, for both Archer and the Twins. From Archer’s perspective, it’s a bet on himself with a financial cushion if things don’t work out. When he signed in Tampa Bay last year, he hadn’t pitched since 2019, and he didn’t even accrue 20 innings. He hurt his forearm in his second start of the year, missed four months, then hurt his hip not long after returning. A starting role in the majors seemed far from a certainty. Read the rest of this entry »

Current work on the team-by-team prospect lists is being complemented by lots of live looks in Arizona as we work on the West Valley cluster of teams (Reds/Guardians/Dodgers/White Sox), so the info in those lists is fresh out of the oven. As I’ve been targeting teams with West Valley facilities who come east and talked to scouts on my side of town, some players have popped up this spring from clubs whose prospect lists we’ve already done, and I’m not wasting time adding them to their org lists just because others aren’t finished. Those changes are noted beneath some notes on Daniel Espino and are indicated on The Board’s “Trend” column, as they’re the only players to have “up” arrows at this stage.
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The free-agent signing bonanza might have come to an end, but that doesn’t mean that this compressed offseason doesn’t have anything left on the transaction front. On Sunday night, the Diamondbacks and Ketel Marte agreed to terms on a five-year extension worth $76 million that could keep him in Arizona through 2028 thanks to a team option.

Articles like this generally contemplate the player who just signed the extension, and we’ll definitely get to that, but the contract sounds so light on the surface that I think we should talk about that first. There’s one obvious reason that the total guarantee doesn’t jump off the page: Marte was already under contract through 2024 thanks to an extension he signed before the 2018 season. He signed that one only 1,000 plate appearances into his career, and it was quite team-friendly: five years and $24 million, with $11 million and $13 million team options tacked on to the end. He broke out in 2019 with a 7-WAR season, which made him one of the most underpaid players in the game.

Those club options are no more, because Arizona ripped them up to sign Marte’s new contract. He’ll receive the $8.4 million he was due this year and then another $76 million from ’23 to ’27. But since the Diamondbacks were certain to pick up those options, we can think of this deal as a three-year extension worth $52 million starting after the last option year.
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Toronto Blue Jays pitching prospect Hagen Danner is a converted catcher who gets good ride on his four-seam fastball, and he attributes that quality to his former position. Hearing that from the 23-year-old right-hander prompted me to ask Philadelphia Phillies manager Joe Girardi if what I was told made sense.

“I can definitely see that,” said Girardi, who caught for 15 big-league seasons. “But I don’t think it’s a guarantee; some [catchers] have a little tail to their ball when they throw. At times, I would have a little tail. But [Garrett] Stubbs really gets underneath it, really gets that spin. There are a lot of catchers who do. It’s how we’re taught to throw.”

Good ride typically comes with a four-seam grip, but unlike pitchers, a catcher isn’t standing on a mound with ample time to manipulate the baseball in his hand; he has to receive the ball, make the transfer, and get rid of it as quickly as possible. I asked the catcher-turned-manager about that as well.

“You don’t have time to get the grip, but ideally you want to throw it straight,” said Girardi. “And you can still throw it straight, pretty much, if you don’t have a perfect four-seam grip.”

Detroit Tigers manager A.J. Hinch is likewise a former catcher, so I asked him the same questions I’d asked Girardi. Read the rest of this entry »

On Thursday morning, the Blue Jays and Rockies agreed to a trade sending Randal Grichuk and cash considerations to Colorado, with Raimel Tapia and minor league infielder Adrian Pinto joining Toronto. Rob Gillies of The Associated Press reports that the amount of cash is just over $9.7 million, which accounts for nearly half of the remaining salary on Grichuk’s five-year contract. With this move, the Blue Jays get the left-handed outfielder they had been searching for, and the Rockies get another power hitter to plug into the middle of their lineup.

Grichuk signed that five-year extension (worth $52 million) after putting up 2.1 WAR in 2018, his first season in Toronto. He blasted 31 home runs the next year, but that power was the only positive aspect of his approach at the plate. Over the last three years, his offensive output has been nine percent below league average, and that’s despite an ISO that sits a hair above .200. His biggest issue has been getting on base at a regular clip. His walk rate has been remarkably consistent, sitting around 5.8% over the last six years, though it dipped to its lowest point since his rookie season last year. With a batted-ball profile focused on fly ball contact, his BABIP isn’t much better.

In the field, Grichuk has been a solid defender across all three outfield positions. Splitting his time between center and right field over the last few years, the advanced defensive metrics rate his work in the corner a little higher than up the middle. All three metrics were disappointed in his ability to cover enough ground in the field as the Blue Jays’ full-time center fielder in 2020. But moved over to right in ’21, he graded out as one of the better fielders at the position on a per-inning basis, accumulating 6 DRS and 5.5 UZR in just 330.1 innings. Read the rest of this entry »

Rhys Hoskins hits for power. The 29-year-old Philadelphia Phillies first baseman went deep 27 times last year in 443 plate appearances; his home run totals in his previous full seasons were 34 and 29 respectively. Moreover, the most notable digits in his career .241/.360/.502 slash line are those of his slugging percentage. And then there is his average exit velocity. Last year, Hoskins ranked in the 83rd percentile for that particular metric.

Slugger bona fides aside, he’s no mere masher. Hoskins is a student of the art of hitting, and he has been since his days at Sacramento State University. That’s where he learned to hunt the heater, an approach that — as the numbers attest — has served him well.

Hoskins discussed his evolution as a hitter, and the mindset that helps him flourish in the batter’s box, at the Phillies’ spring training site in Clearwater on Wednesday afternoon.

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David Laurila: How do you identify as a hitter?

Rhys Hoskins: “I think I’m a hitter with a pretty good understanding of the strike zone. High on-base guy. High power guy with always a chance to hit for more average. That’s the way I would describe myself.”

Laurila: Many people view you as a power hitter. Do you like that label?

Hoskins: “I feel like when you hear ‘power hitter,’ there’s a little bit of all-or-nothing attached to that. So I don’t know if I would necessarily say I’m a power hitter. I think I’d rather say that I’m a hitter with some power.”

Laurila: Where, and from whom, did you learn to hit? Read the rest of this entry »

If you weren’t looking for it, you’d miss it. Buried in a blow-by-blow account from The Athletic’s Matt Gelb of how the Phillies ended up signing Kyle Schwarber, FanGraphs newsletter writer Jeffrey Bellone spotted something interesting:

“However, under the new CBA, a traded contract is recalculated to reflect the remaining actual dollars. That means contracts that are backloaded will be harder to trade (if the acquiring team is concerned about the luxury tax threshold).”

This change was an afterthought in the piece, an offhand justification the Phillies made for not acquiring Kevin Kiermaier. His remaining average salary outstrips the average annual value of his deal, which means that under the terms of the new CBA, he’d carry a higher tax hit than he would have in the old regime. The ownership group’s desire to abide by the sport’s soft salary cap made Kiermaier’s salary an untenable addition.

With the benefit of hindsight, it seems that ownership didn’t actually care about the dollars very much, given that they signed Nick Castellanos and ticked over the first CBT threshold anyway. And given that the tax rate is 20%, the difference in Kiermaier’s tax hit under the old and new agreements is a hair under $6 million; the total monetary difference would have been roughly $1 million in assessed tax. That’s a vanishingly small difference on a $230 million payroll.

I’ll level with you: I don’t think this is going to be an earth-shaking change to the economics of baseball. Only five teams look likely to pay any tax this year, with a few other in hailing distance of the barrier. The differences aren’t huge; $6 million a year isn’t quite a rounding error, but it’s hardly a life-and-death number. Remember: teams are not actually paying Kiermaier $6 million more than they would have before. Salary is salary. This is merely an accounting game that affects teams who pay at least some amount of tax.

Still, we analysts love financial tomfoolery, so let’s consider a few contracts that are interestingly shaped now that trades can trigger the re-calculation of tax numbers. First, a quick disclaimer: I haven’t seen the exact text of the new agreement. It’s unclear how the Rays’ CBT number would be affected by trading Kiermaier; I’m assuming no effect, but if that isn’t the case, that obviously changes the calculus. It’s not clear how signing bonuses will be handled, either; it appears that it would be spread evenly across each year, but again, I’m working from the outside.
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I have a schematic in my head for how a major league team can assemble a dominant bullpen. You, as someone who reads FanGraphs, probably have an idea in your head for how a major league team can assemble a dominant bullpen. They’re probably the same ideas – assemble a stable of guys who can throw 98. If that doesn’t work, assemble a stable of guys who can throw 99, and add wipeout sliders until it clicks.

The Mariners had one of the best bullpens in baseball last year, and they nearly rode that unit – and their resulting excellent performance in close games – to the playoffs. You don’t coin “fun differential” if you don’t have a good bullpen. Yesterday, the team bolstered this year’s version by signing Sergio Romo to a one-year deal worth $2 million (or up to $2.25 million with incentives). In doing so, they added to a truly interesting unit that will look to back up last year’s spectacular performance while eschewing the way that their competitors look to combine relievers, at least to a degree.

In 2021, 135 relievers threw at least 20 innings while averaging 95 mph or higher on their fastballs. The Mariners will employ one of them – Diego Castillo – this year, and he’s only on the list due to his rarely-used four-seamer, as his sinker dipped below 95 last year. They have some other flamethrowers in their ‘pen – Andrés Muñoz throws 100, but missed most of 2021 with injury. Ken Giles might qualify as a flamethrower eventually, but his recovery from Tommy John so far has him topping out at 95. Read the rest of this entry »

Ian Seymour throws ugly, and he looks good doing it. Drafted 57th overall by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2020 out of Virginia Tech, the 23-year-old southpaw is coming off his first professional season, one in which he logged a 1.95 ERA with 87 strikeouts in 55-and-a-third innings. The dominance came at three levels, with 10 outings in Low-A and two starts each in High- and Triple-A. Especially eye-opening was his September stint at Durham: facing hitters one rung below the majors, he allowed four hits and one unearned run over 10 innings of work.

Augmenting Seymour’s unique delivery is a five-pitch mix that leans heavily on his high-riding heater and a fading changeup, with a sweeping slider emerging as a potential third plus pitch. Dotting corners isn’t part of his attack plan. The erstwhile biology major — Seymour graduated from Virginia Tech last fall — doesn’t dissect hitters so much as he rears back and dares them to make contact. It’s hard to argue with success: Opposing batters slashed .139/.239/.246 against him last season.

Seymour — No. 16 on our newly-released Tampa Bay Rays Top Prospects list — discussed his game over the phone last week.

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David Laurila: What were your expectations going into the 2020 draft, and which teams did you feel would be the best fits for you development-wise? Read the rest of this entry »

Over the weekend, the Rockies cemented another middle-of-the-order player’s status in Denver, signing third baseman Ryan McMahon to a six-year deal that will keep him in town until the end of the 2027 season. The contract guarantee is $70 million and covers four years of free-agent eligibility, as McMahon was still arbitration eligible for 2022 and ’23. The 2021 season was the first time his status as a regular seemed ironclad, and he responded with his best season yet, hitting .255/.331/.449 with 23 homers in 151 games and splitting time between second and third base.

Now, the thought going through your head right now may be, “Uh oh, Szymborski is writing about the Rockies, he must be planning to eviscerate them!” But while that’s frequently a good guess, in this case, this strikes me as a perfectly reasonable contract for them to sign. It’s a long deal for a player who isn’t a star, but like with Steven Matz’s four-year, $44 million deal with the Cardinals, the Rockies aren’t paying McMahon as if he were a star. If three years from now, the relationship between him and ownership has deteriorated, Colorado doesn’t seem likely to send him out of town with a $50 million bonus for his new team.

Let’s start with the ZiPS projections. Read the rest of this entry »