Remember that one time Lance McCullers Jr. threw 24 curveballs in a row? It was great, and it’s part of Astros (and Lance McCullers Jr.) lore. You’re supposed to intersperse breaking balls with fastballs, to make each play off of the other. Going against that – throwing the same thing over and over again and daring the other team to hit it – is delightful.

What’s so delightful about it? Throwing the same pitch a ton of times isn’t really it. Would you care if peak Mariano Rivera threw 24 cutters in a row, or Jake McGee threw 24 fastballs in a row? Probably not. Fastballs – and for this article, I’m treating a cutter as a fastball – are the default pitch, and if batters aren’t hitting them, why throw something else?

I’d argue that when you’re feeling it, curves and sliders can behave similarly, at least when it comes to the feasibility of throwing them over and over again. McCullers didn’t bounce 24 curves in a row – he commanded plenty of them in the strike zone. His curve isn’t just hard to hit because batters are looking for a sinker. It’s hard to hit because it moves like a hummingbird hunting nectar. It’s definitely cool seeing all those curveballs in a row, but it’s not as though he was relying on the deception of curveball versus fastball to sneak it past batters. They knew what was coming; they just couldn’t do anything with it.

That’s fine, I guess, if you’re into excellent, borderline-unhittable pitches. For truly impressive streaks of identical pitches, though, I’m partial to changeups. The reason for the pitch is right in the name – it’s a change from what the batter is expecting. In Spanish, it’s even more straightforward: cambio. There’s something magical about seeing a batter gear up for a fastball, only to flail awkwardly at something 10 mph slower.

Do it twice, and you’re using the hitter’s expectations against them in a different way, betting that with the changeup out of the way, they’ll go back and look for a fastball. Do it three times, and I’m not sure what you’re looking for. In unrelated news, let’s talk about César Valdez. Read the rest of this entry »

At the end of every Hall of Fame election cycle, I take an evening or two to sit down and perform what I call “The Ceremonial Updating of the Spreadsheets,” where I gather data from the ballot results so as to track long-term trends as well as some demographic information regarding any honorees. The dirty little secret is that there’s no ceremony involved except perhaps the cracking of a beer, but I’ve spent 20 years building these spreadsheets, which fuel my coverage and occasionally inspire new ideas, and I take satisfaction in maintaining them, even if they are messy around the margins. You have your tools of the trade, I have mine.

It struck me while preparing a post-election follow-up on S-JAWS (my experimental version of starting pitcher JAWS) that it would probably be worth sharing some of that information — bigger-picture stuff — with readers, as it has an influence on how I see the Hall of Fame and approach my coverage. While I make reference to that information during the election cycle, I don’t always find time to share it amid the crunch of candidate evaluations.

It further struck me that the last time I presented some of this data publicly, in my 2017 book The Cooperstown Casebook, Major League Baseball had not yet recognized seven Negro Leagues from 1920-48 as major leagues, and that thus my accounting and the terminology I used to describe it was due for an overhaul. Some of this remains a work in progress, specifically when it comes to JAWS; while Baseball Reference presents WAR, WAR7 (seven-year peak), and JAWS data in addition to WAR for players in the aforementioned Negro Leagues, those figures have not been incorporated into the positional standards because of the significantly shorter season lengths and the fact that several Hall of Famers have only the tail ends of their careers in the major Negro Leagues, having peaked long before 1920. Quite honestly I have not yet figured out a satisfactory way to get around this, but that’s a problem for another day. Read the rest of this entry »

Samad Taylor stepped up his game last year. After at times disappointing at the dish in his early seasons of professional baseball, the 23-year-old infielder/outfielder broke out to the tune of a .294/.385/.503 slash line with Double-A New Hampshire. Moreover, he showed surprising pop for a player who profiles as more of a table-setter than a middle-of-the-order masher. Carrying 170 pounds on his 5-foot-10 frame, Taylor left the yard 16 times in 374 plate appearances. He also swiped 30 bases.

The Corona, California native came to Toronto via trade. Cleveland’s 10th-round pick in the 2016 draft, Taylor changed organizations the ensuing summer in the deal that sent sidearmer Joe Smith to the shores of Lake Erie. First featured here at FanGraphs following a statistically-poor 2018 season, Taylor proceeded to scuffle again in 2019, then miss an entire season, as did his minor-league brethren, due to the pandemic. As evidenced by his 2021 output, the changes he began making over the COVID shutdown — mental and physical alike — proved a panacea.

Taylor will enter the upcoming campaign ranked No. 36 on our Toronto Blue Jays Top Prospects list.

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David Laurila: This past year was by far your best in pro ball. What changed?

Samad Taylor: “It was just understanding myself as a ballplayer, understanding what my approach is. In previous years, I was in the box trying to do too much. I would come up in certain situations and try to be the hero, when in reality, being a hero wasn’t necessary. I didn’t understand that. I didn’t understand myself as a hitter. Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s play a quick game. I’ll list two potential starting rotations, and you tell me which one you’d prefer. First contender:

This would be one of the top few rotations in baseball. Nola might be slightly short of the average “top starter on a playoff team,” but it’s close. Webb turned unhittable last year. You can take your pick between Urías and Eovaldi as your third starter; I’m significantly higher on Urías than our Depth Charts projections. Manaea is wildly overqualified as a fifth starter.

Okay, so the bar is pretty high. What about rotation number two?

Burnes is one of the best five starters in baseball; maybe three teams wouldn’t plug him in atop their rotation, though he has some volume concerns. Snell is a risk as well, but one with a tremendously high ceiling. McCullers and Valdez as your third and fourth starters is an appetizing proposition, and Manoah provides yet more upside. This one projects for less WAR than the first rotation, but in fewer innings; it might tax your bullpen more, but in exchange you’re getting some top-shelf arms. I’d prefer rotation number one, but I think it’s quite close, and I wouldn’t fault you for picking number two.

Is that it? Are we just playing “pick your favorite fantasy team” here at FanGraphs? Don’t rule it out if the lockout keeps going, but no, I picked these groups to illustrate a point. The first group of starters? They were all among the top 15 pitchers in the majors last year at one particular skill: throwing first-pitch strikes. The second group? They finished in the bottom 15. Read the rest of this entry »

Colton Cowser didn’t exactly crush pitchers in his first half-season of professional baseball; his left-handed stroke produced just two home runs in 149 plate appearances after he was drafted fifth overall by the Baltimore Orioles out of Sam Houston State University. What the 21-year-old outfielder did do is square up a lot of baseballs. Playing primarily with the Low-A Delmarva Shorebirds, he slashed .375/.490/.492, and just as he did at the collegiate level, he walked more times than he struck out. Displaying the plate discipline and contact skills that helped make him a first-round pick, Cowser drew 25 free passes and went down by way of the K just 23 times.

The extent to which the Cypress, Texas native can grow his power game will go a long way toward determining his big-league future. Will he be more of a table-setter, or will he establish himself as an impact bat in the middle of the Orioles’ lineup? There is reason to believe it will be the latter. He currently packs 215 pounds on his 6-foot-3 frame, and he entered pro ball having left the yard 16 times in his junior season as a Bearkat. Both his home run total and his 1.170 OPS were tied for tops in the Southland Conference.

Cowser — No. 4 on our newly-released Orioles Top Prospects list — discussed his hitting approach, and his early-career developmental goals, over the phone in late January.

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David Laurila: When Baseball America wrote you up for their 2022 Prospect Handbook, they cited your impressive walk-to-strikeout ratio. They also wrote that your swing path is “presently more geared toward contact versus power.” Do you feel that’s accurate?

Colton Cowser: “I think so. But I’m not necessarily focused on my swing path resulting in more contact or power; I mostly just try to go up there with the same swing. Home runs come from timing. Even so, I have started to understand some of those things a little bit more. The Orioles have kind of brought that to my eyes with some of the developmental stuff they have.”

Laurila: I was planning to ask you about that. Hitting analytics have presumably become a bigger part of your baseball life since you signed. Read the rest of this entry »

Today, I’m looking into something that doesn’t require much explaining. Well, that’s not quite accurate. I’m looking into a situation that’s so good for the pitching team that in our minds, we go ahead and write it off. That doesn’t mean it’s not interesting, though; it can just be hard to see why it’s interesting, which is why I’m writing about it. That’s right: let’s talk about when Jacob deGrom gets ahead in the count.

When the best pitcher in baseball has the advantage on a hitter, that hitter doesn’t do well – a real shocker, that one. With two strikes, deGrom turned batters into sub-pitcher-hitting-level zeroes in 2021:

Those aren’t typos. When deGrom hit two strikes before three balls, he struck out roughly three-quarters of the batters he faced and walked almost none. Survive until 3-2, and you stood a chance – he had a 12% walk rate and a mere 52% strikeout rate after 3-2 counts – but for the most part, facing deGrom with two strikes is a one-way ticket back to the bench. Read the rest of this entry »

It might be overstating the case to say that for the second time inside of 24 months, Dan Straily has resurfaced to rescue us from the major league baseball-free doldrums. While the owners’ lockout has put a freeze on transactions that involve major league rosters, the Diamondbacks’ signing of Straily to a minor-league deal is comparatively eye-catching. The 33-year-old righty is returning to the States following a career-salvaging two-year stint with the KBO’s Lotte Giants.

Straily previously grabbed the spotlight, such as it was, on March 23, 2020. While MLB had recently shut down spring training due to the coronavirus pandemic, the KBO was able to proceed with its preparations for the season, albeit cautiously. Straily, who had signed a $1 million deal with the Giants, pitched opposite teammate Adrian Sampson in a surreal intrasquad game that was carried on YouTube. Not only did the stream offer a preview of what baseball in a mostly-empty ballpark would look like, it provided a flicker of hope that there would be at least some baseball into which fans could sink their teeth while so much of the world was shut down. Thanks to a last-minute deal with ESPN, the KBO found a stateside audience, and we had some fun at FanGraphs getting up to speed on the league and then following along.

Straily landed in South Korea after spending parts of eight seasons (2012-19) in the majors pitching for six different franchises with mixed levels of success, accumulating 3.6 WAR via a 4.56 ERA and 5.05 FIP in 803.1 innings. He put up 1.9 WAR in 27 starts with the A’s in 2013, 1.2 WAR in 31 starts with the Reds in ’16, and a career-best 2.0 WAR in 33 starts with the Marlins in ’17. Those last two campaigns were the only ones in which he didn’t also pitch in the minors, though in 2018, he went down only for a rehab assignment following a forearm strain. Read the rest of this entry »

I can’t tell you with any kind of certainty when the 2022 season will start or how many games will be played. I can’t even definitively say if there will be a season at all. But one thing seems nearly inevitable: When we have baseball, it’s not going to be identical to the product we saw last year. For one, the designated hitter, used for the shortened 2020 season in the National League, appears likely to become a permanent part of both leagues, ending the doctrinal schism between the junior and senior circuits. Another likely difference? The playoff structure.

It’s no secret that the owners are highly interested in expanding the playoffs again. Over at The Athletic, Kaitlyn McGrath, David O’Brien, and Katie Woo teamed up to discuss the various goings-on here. The owners have proposed expanding the playoffs to 14 teams, with only the team with the best record in each league getting a bye and everyone else thrown into a best-of-three Wild Card series. The players, meanwhile, have proposed conceding an expanded playoff structure of 12 teams, with multiple byes for top teams.

From the standpoint of the owners’ interests, the best teams winning often isn’t necessarily the ideal outcome. The World Series championship is basically a MacGuffin. MLB doesn’t need it to actually be important, it just needs the public to believe it is. And since the public appears to believe that the best team will win a short series far more often than it actually does, the more teams you can stuff into a postseason without making it seem like chance (rather than talent) is driving the outcome, the better. Who cares if a 107-win team loses two of three games to an 83-win team? They were probably chokers anyway! Read the rest of this entry »

Fred McGriff will likely be on the ballot when the Today’s Game Committee votes in December, and his candidacy is already creating a bit of a buzz. For good reason. The “Crime Dog” finished his career with 493 long balls — he won a home-run title in both leagues along the way — as well as 1,550 RBIs and three Silver Slugger awards. Moreover, he escaped the steroid era unscathed. Highly respected by his peers and fans alike, McGriff is viewed by many as deserving of a plaque in Cooperstown. That he never garnered more than 39.8% support in BBWAA balloting is seen as an injustice.

Which brings us to a player who received a paltry 3.8% in his lone year on the ballot. Was Carlos Delgado just as good, if not better than McGriff? WAR says he wasn’t — McGriff had 56.9 to Delgado’s 44.1 — but in terms of offensive bona fides, the numbers suggest he was. Here is a snapshot of what they did at the plate:

Delgado: 2,035 games, 2.038 hits, 473 HR, .280/.383/.546, .391 wOBA, 138 OPS+.
McGriff: 2,460 games, 2,490 hits, 493 HR, .284/.377/.509, .383 wOBA, 134 OPS+.

A clear majority of the people who weighed in on my recent “Who Was The Better Hitter?” Twitter poll sided with Delgado. The Puerto Rico-born slugger — himself the winner of three Silver Sluggers — won out by a count of 75% to 25%. Might the results have been different had the poll read “Who Was The Better Player?” That’s an interesting question. Would the voters have prioritized their respective WAR totals or, given that both were first basemen, focused primarily on metrics such as wOBA and wRC+?

Regardless of how Delgado’s overall career compares to McGriff’s, one can make a strong argument that he too should be on the forthcoming Today’s Game ballot. Even if he were to ultimately fall short — a strong likelihood given the candidates expected to be considered — Delgado deserves another look after being a one-and-done on a stacked BBWAA ballot. Admirable for his off-the-field efforts — his résumé includes a non-profit foundation and a Roberto Clemente Award — Delgado was one of the best hitters of his era.

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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS

Slim Sallee went 2 for 5 against Sailor Stroud.

Gabby Street went 2 for 5 against Gus Salve.

Cy Seymour went 2 for 5 against Willie Sudhoff.

Mackey Sasser went 2 for 5 against Bob Scanlan.

Champ Summers went 2 for 5 against Lary Sorensen.

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ESPN’s Top 100 Players of All Time — a ranking compiled by dozens of the Worldwide Leader’s writers and editors — has spurred a lot of debate. That’s understandable, and to a large degree, it was by design. Subjective listings of this ilk typically make for quality water-cooler discourse (an activity currently best-defined as “arguing on Twitter”).

Count me among those who rolled their eyes when perusing the rankings. No disrespect to the people who put it together, but in my humble opinion, some of the placements are borderline absurd. With the caveat that everyone on the list was a great player, egregious examples include Ken Griffey Jr. (No. 13) ranked in front of, among others, Rickey Henderson (No. 23), and Derek Jeter (No.28) ranked in front of Joe Morgan (No. 37).

Griffey Jr. had 77.7 WAR; Henderson had 106.3 WAR.
Jeter had 73.0 WAR; Morgan had 98.8 WAR.

There are numerous other examples of WAR being under-weighed, and narrative — ditto a certain amount of recency bias — being over-weighed. Again, lists of this ilk are subjective. Even so, Henderson was clearly superior to Griffey Jr, and Morgan clearly superior to Jeter. Even if you’re inclined to quibble with WAR, those things seem fairly obvious.

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MLB and the MLBPA are currently at war, the former having implemented a lockout while the two sides negotiate a new CBA. With the scheduled start of spring training fast approaching, and progress seemingly at a standstill, fans are becoming increasingly impatient, if not frustrated and/or angry. With that in mind, I ran the following Twitter poll on Thursday afternoon:

With the caveat that bargaining is a two-way street, which side do you support in the CBA negotiations: MLB players, or MLB owners?

A total of 1,198 people weighed in, and the results spoke volumes. An overwhelming 94.5% voted MLB Players, while only 5.5% sided with MLB owners.

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Craig Albernaz had high praise for Logan Webb when I asked him about the 25-year-old Giants right-hander on Friday’s episode of FanGraphs Audio. That shouldn’t come as a surprise. Albernaz is San Francisco’s bullpen coach/catching coach, and Webb is coming off a season where he won 11 of 14 decisions and registered a 3.03 ERA and 2.94 FIP over 148-and-a-third innings.

“Logan Webb is nasty,” Albernaz said on the podcast. “I think that’s it; Webby is just nasty. Just like any young pitcher, there is a maturation process of what they are, what they could be, and what they’re trying to be. He took some great strides last year [with] maturity, really getting confidence, and also taking ownership of his own development and how to attack hitters. Credit to Brian Bannister and our pitching guys, J.P. [Martinez] and [Andrew Bailey], for really pushing Webby all through 2020, and last year, to get him where he needs to be.

“His fastball — how it moves, how it plays in the zone — is elite. His breaking ball, his sweeper, is nasty, and it comes out of the same tunnel. His changeup is filthy, just his sell on it. The horizontal movement… it’s everything you want. He checks a lot of boxes. But what really made the strides last year, in my opinion, was his relentless attack of the strike zone. That’s a message [for] all of our pitchers. We want them to attack the strike zone. But Webby was just relentless on throwing all of his weapons in the strike zone, making hitters make decisions on pitches… He really stepped up for us down the stretch.”

Friday’s conversation with Albernaz also addressed Bannister, Buster Posey, Farhan Zaidi, organizational approaches, and more. The episode also includes Eric Longenhagen and Ben Clemens catching up on a variety of topics, including pitchers who throw both four-seamers and sinkers. The pod is well worth a listen.

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A quiz:

Which player holds the record for most extra-base hits in a single season?

The answer can be found below.

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NEWS NOTES

Jeff Francis has been elected to the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame. A Vancouver native who pitched in the big leagues from 2004-2015, Francis spent the bulk of his career with the Colorado Rockies, who drafted him ninth overall in 2002 out of the University of British Columbia.

Triple-A schedules have been expanded to 150 games — up from 144 — beginning with the 2022 season. Minor-league teams last played as many as 150 games in 1964.

The Milwaukee Brewers announced that Josh Maurer will be joining their radio broadcast team and will be calling approximately 60 games. The voice of the Triple-A Pawtucket/Worcester Red Sox since 2014, Maurer will join Gary Cohen, Dave Flemming, Will Flemming, Andy Freed, Glenn Geffner, Aaron Goldsmith, Dave Jageler, Jeff Levering, Mike Monaco, and Don Orsillo as former PawSox broadcasters now in MLB booths. Additionally, Dan Hoard is now the radio voice of the Super Bowl-bound Cincinnati Bengals.

David Green, an outfielder for the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants from 1981-1987 died earlier this week at age 61. Originally signed by the Brewers, the Managua native was sent to St. Louis in December 1980 as part of a seven-player deal that included Rollie Fingers, Sixto Lezcano, and Ted Simmons. Green is one of 15 Nicaraguan-born players in MLB history.

MLB has promoted five umpires to full-time status: Ryan Addition, Sean Barber, John Libka, Ben May, and Roberto Ortiz. The five — all of whom have worked 300 or more MLB games as call-ups — are replacing Fieldin Culbreth, Kerwin Danley, Gerry Davis, Brian Gorman, and Joe West, who have retired. Ortiz will be MLB’s first full-time Puerto Rican-born umpire.

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The answer to the quiz is Babe Ruth, who had 119 extra-base hits in 1921. The Sultan of Swat produced 44 doubles, 16 triples, and 59 home runs that year.

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Adrián González announced his retirement yesterday, officially closing out an MLB career that spanned the 2004-2018 seasons. A five-time All-Star first baseman, González logged a 133 wRC+ over a 10-year prime that saw him play for the San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers. His Red Sox tenure was in some ways confounding. González was targeted for criticism by certain members of the Boston media, this despite his slashing .321/.382/.513 with 42 home runs in his two years with the club. The subject of a May 2011 FanGraphs Q&A — González was an outstanding hitter.

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Could Jack Harshman have become the first true, two-way player in the modern era? Looking at both his big-league numbers and his minor-league career, one can’t help but wonder.

Harshman played for five MLB teams from 1952-1960, and during that time he made 217 pitching appearances, 155 of them starts, posting a 69-65 record and a 3.50 ERA. A southpaw, Harshman was at his best in 1956 when he went 15-11 with a 132 ERA+ for the Chicago White Sox. That same year, he hit six of his 21 big-league home runs.

Harshman didn’t go up to the plate looking to hit singles, nor did he often look to move runners over with a well-placed bunt. He had just 18 sacrifices over his eight seasons, and 27.6% of his 76 career hits left the yard. Suffice to say, Hartman took healthy hacks.

His minor-league numbers were, in modern vernacular, sick. Harshman toed the rubber down on the farm, but he was primarily a slugging first baseman. In 1949, Harshman homered 40 times with the American Association’s Minneapolis Millers, and two years later he bashed 47 more with the Southern Association’s Nashville Volunteers. Enamored with his arm, the New York Giants converted him to a pitcher in 1952.

Harshman’s 1953 season, which he spent with the Volunteers, was his last in the minors. It was also his most eye-opening in terms of both-sides-of-the-ball production. On the mound, Harshman went 23-7 with a 3.27 ERA over 259 innings. At the plate, he slashed .315/.446/.631 with 12 home runs in 184 plate appearances.

Could Harshman have succeeded as both a pitcher and a position player in the big leagues? Possibly not, but he might have deserved an opportunity to try.

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Dave Foutz was a two-way player for the St. Louis Browns and the Brooklyn Grooms from 1884-1896. Nicknamed “Scissors,” the Carroll County, Maryland native played 596 games at first base, 320 in the outfield, and made 251 pitching appearances. As a hitter, Foutz finished his career with a 101 wRC+. As a pitcher, he augmented a 124 ERA+ with a 147-66 won-loss record. Moreover, Foutz’s .690 winning percentage is tied with Whitey Ford for third-highest in MLB history among pitchers with at least 100 wins. Only Al Spalding (.795% from 1871-1877) and Spud Chandler (.717% from 1937-1947) were credited with wins at a higher rate.

Speaking of Spud, the erstwhile New York Yankees hurler had a truly remarkable career. It was relatively brief — nine full seasons, plus five games split between 1944-1945 during WWII — but what he did during that time stands out like a sore thumb. Along with his W-L record (yes, the recipe requires a large grain of salt) Chandler logged a 132 ERA+, won an MVP award, and was on six World Series-winning teams. In 1943, the right-hander from Commerce, Georgia allowed one earned run while tossing a pair of complete-game victories in the Fall Classic.

Even more remarkable is that Chandler didn’t make his MLB debut until he was four months short of his 30th birthday. He threw his final pitch at age 40 in the 1947 World Series. The last batter he faced was Jackie Robinson.

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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

Jim Trdinich is stepping down from his position as director of baseball communications for the Pittsburgh Pirates and will become the team’s first-ever historian. Jason Mackey has the story at The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Baltimore Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins had his breakout season while battling Crohn’s disease. Steve Melewski has the story at MASN Sports.

At The Athletic (subscription required), Dan Hayes and Michael Russo teamed up to tell us about Justin Morneau’s hockey Field Of Dreams.

Writing for Bally Sports, Gordon Edes expressed how helping minor leaguers is still a major problem in baseball.

Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper wrote about how NFL and NBA salaries have outstripped MLB salaries in recent years.

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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

In 1987, Barry Bonds had 611 plate appearances and walked 54 times. In 2004, Bonds had 617 plate appearances and walked 232 times.

Sandy Koufax had 11 shutouts in 1963. He fanned 306 batters that year.
John Tudor had 10 shutouts in 1985. He fanned 169 batters that year.

Ted Williams hit five home runs in games that ended 1-0. That’s a record.

Steve Gerkin went 0-12 with a 3.62 ERA for the Philadelphia A’s in 1945. It was the right-hander’s only big-league season.

John Coleman went 12-48 with a 4.87 ERA for the Philadelphia Quakers in 1883. The National League club finished the season 46 games in arrears of the Boston Beaneaters, with a record of 18-81-1.

Randy Hundley caught 160 games for the Chicago Cubs in 1968. He started 156 of those games.

The Detroit Tigers signed Hall of Fame catcher Ivan Rodriguez to a free agent contract on today’s date in 2004.

Players born on today’s date include Don Fisher, whose two big-league appearances came with the New York Giants in 1945. Fisher’s first outing was a five-inning relief effort in which he allowed four runs. His second was a 13-inning complete game shutout.

Babe Ruth (714) has the most home runs among players born on today’s date. Ruth also has the most stolen bases (123) and pitcher wins (94) among players born on today’s date.

Also born on today’s date was Bill Koski, whose career comprised 13 games and 27 innings for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1951. The right-hander’s first professional experience came a year earlier when he toed the rubber for the Mayfield Clothiers in the Kentucky-Illinois-Tennessee League, a Class D circuit that was commonly referred to as the Kitty League.

Yesterday, I released a study of the average compensation that players who qualify for Super Two arbitration receive in their pre-free-agency years. Today, I’m replicating the same study for players who reached standard arbitration. This should help add numerical context to the negotiations between the league and the MLBPA around pre-free-agency compensation – though those negotiations aren’t going well at the moment.

As a reminder, I’m looking at the production and subsequent-year salaries of every player since 2013 to establish a rule of thumb for what players can expect to receive in arbitration given their production in the preceding year. The methodology will follow, but first, here’s the high-level summary of what players have received based on their service time, position, and production:

This table displays the amount of money a given player should make above the minimum salary based on who they are and what they did. Just as with the Super Two numbers, this broadly makes sense – players receive less per unit of production than they would in free agency, but their compensation gets close and closer to free agency levels (roughly $6.5 million above minimum salary per WAR) as they go further into arbitration. Read the rest of this entry »