Not only is the Cardinals’ division series roster filled with homegrown talent, the number three and four hitters in their lineup were acquired in successive offseasons for a total of seven prospects who all began their professional careers with the organization. The ability to develop talent in their farm system is a big reason why St. Louis has had 12 consecutive winning seasons, although they’re making their first playoff appearance since 2015.

Here’s how every member of the Cardinals’ 2019 NLDS roster was originally acquired. The team’s full RosterResource Depth Chart and Payroll pages are also available as a resource.

Homegrown (12)

• Yadier Molina, C: Drafted Fourth Round 2000
• Matt Carpenter, 3B: Drafted 13th Round 2009
• Carlos Martinez, RP: Amateur Free Agent (Dominican Republic) April 2010
• Kolten Wong, 2B: Drafted First Round (22) 2011
• Jack Flaherty, SP: Drafted First Round (34) 2014
• Daniel Ponce de Leon, RP: Drafted Ninth Round 2014
• Harrison Bader, CF: Drafted Third Round 2015
• Paul DeJong, SS: Drafted Fourth Round 2015
• Ryan Helsley, RP: Drafted Fifth Round 2015
• Dakota Hudson, SP: Drafted First Round (34) 2016
• Tommy Edman, INF/OF: Drafted Sixth Round 2016
• Randy Arozarena, OF: Amateur Free Agent (Cuba) July 2016

Total WAR: 23.0

Signed in Free Agency (4)

• Dexter Fowler, OF: December 2016 (CHC) — Signed to five-year, $82.5 million contract.
• Miles Mikolas, SP: December 2017 (Japan) — Signed to two-year, $15.5 million contract; signed four-year contract extension (2020-23) in February.
• Andrew Miller, RP: December 2018 (CLE) — Signed to two-year, $25 million contract ($12 million club option for 2021).
• Matt Wieters, C: February 2019 (WSN) — Signed to Minor League contract ($1.5 million salary).

Total WAR: 3.3

Acquired Via Trade (7)

• Adam Wainwright, SP: December 2003 (ATL) — Acquired in trade that sent J.D. Drew and Eli Marrero to the Braves.
• Jose Martinez, OF: May 2016 (KCR) — Acquired in trade that sent cash considerations to the Royals.
• Marcell Ozuna, OF: December 2017 (MIA) — Acquired in trade that sent Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, Magneuris Sierra, and Daniel Castano to the Marlins.
• Yairo Muñoz, INF/OF: December 2017 (OAK) — Acquired in trade that sent Stephen Piscotty to the Athletics.
• Giovanny Gallegos, RP: July 2018 (NYY) — Acquired in trade that sent Luke Voit and international bonus slot money to the Yankees.
• Genesis Cabrera, RP: July 2018 (TBR) — Acquired in trade that sent Tommy Pham and international bonus slot money to the Rays.
• Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: December 2018 (ARI) — Acquired in trade that sent Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver, Andy Young, and 2019 competitive balance round B pick to the Diamondbacks.

Total WAR: 9.5

Acquired Off Waivers (1)

• Tyler Webb, RP: June 2018 (SDP)

Total WAR: 0.1

Acquired Via Rule 5 Draft Triple-A Phase (1)

• John Brebbia, RP: December 2015 (ARI)

Total WAR: 1.3

Let us dispense with this first, so that we can move on: Derek Jeter isn’t here, and neither are the rest of the Core Four. For that matter, there’s no Johan Santana, Michael Cuddyer, Francisco Liriano, or Joe Mauer. The four Yankees teams that manhandled the Twins in the 2003, ’04, ’09 and ’10 Division Series by a combined total of 12 wins to two are no more relevant to this series than Babe Ruth or Lou Gehrig. Aside from “Yankees Bullpen: Still Very Good,” there’s no point overthinking the results of the 2017 AL Wild Card Game, either. These 101-win Twins and 103-win Yankees are a pair of excellent, evenly-matched squads here to write new stories instead of extending old ones.

Some thoughts on the series, which begins at Yankee Stadium on Friday at 7:07 pm ET.

Keeping It 100

This year was the first in major league history with four 100-win teams, and while that seems impressive, it’s an indication of the game’s competitive balance issues (a topic worth revisiting on another day). While 33 teams have won at least 100 games in a season during the Wild Card era, only three previous times have two of them crossed paths in the postseason, all within the past three years: the 2017 World Series between the Astros (101-61) and Dodgers (104-58), the 2018 Division Series between the Red Sox (108-54) and Yankees (100-62), and the subsequent ALCS matchup between those Red Sox and the Astros (103-59). Inevitably, one of these teams will be the unlucky 13th 100-game winner to make a first-round exit, after the 1998 Astros (102-60), 1999 Diamondbacks (100-62), 2001 A’s (102-60), 2002 A’s (103-59), 2002 Yankees (103-58), 2002 Braves (101-59), 2003 Braves (101-61), 2003 Giants (100-61), 2008 Angels (100-62), 2011 Phillies (102-60), 2015 Cardinals (100-62), and 2017 Indians (102-60). It’s going to hurt.

Not all 100-win teams are created equal, of course. This pair had similar levels of scoring and runs allowed, and both similarly overachieved relative to their Pythagen records. However, the Yankees distinguished themselves in a few ways:

Read the rest of this entry »

Not every player is fortunate enough to be on a team that wins a World Series. In the last few years, Adrián Beltré and Joe Mauer retired after distinguished careers without a championship, and it shouldn’t lessen what they accomplished. On the other side of the coin, Carlos Beltrán closed out his career with a championship in Houston, the icing on the cake and the cherry on top of a career that was already great. As we head into this year’s Division Series, there are a handful of players who have had very good careers without winning a title. Choosing a playoff team to root for can be difficult if your preferred squad isn’t participating; cheering for a player who deserves to be on a championship team seems as good a reason as any
to pick sides this October.

We’ll start with the position players. Here are the highest WAR totals for position players without a championship in the postseason:

There aren’t any sure-fire Hall of Famers in this group, and there probably isn’t even a Carlos Beltrán type. Russell Martin will certainly merit some Hall of Fame consideration and his WAR total is well out in front of every other player. Giancarlo Stanton ranks third on this list and he still hasn’t played his age-30 season. Nelson Cruz has been incredibly close to a title before, while a group of Nationals have been on good teams, but never won. Josh Donaldson won an MVP in 2015; this will be his seventh playoff appearance with four different teams in the last eight years, but he has yet to play in the World Series. If we were to rearrange this list by plate appearances and include a few more players with under 20 WAR, it would look like this:

If you’re wondering how Nick Markakis has accumulated 2355 career hits, part of it is playing a whole lot of games. He’s made the playoffs with the Orioles and Braves, but never been that close to a title. Edwin Encarnación has played on winning teams in Toronto and Cleveland, but this is probably his best shot at a title. Ryan Zimmerman hasn’t contributed much this season, but got a crucial hit in Tuesday’s eighth inning rally and has been an important part of the Nationals franchise since he was drafted in the first round back in 2005.

While there might not be a ton of big names on the position player side, there are a few likely future Hall of Famers on the pitching side still chasing a ring:

Unlike the position player list, almost everyone above is still a positive contributor this season. The only players below two wins are Kenley Jansen and Rich Hill. We’ve got two, and possibly three, Hall of Famers topping the list above. Kershaw and the Dodgers’ troubles in the postseason are well known, as the club has come so close the last few years. His former teammate Zack Greinke is looking for his title with Houston, as is Gerrit Cole. Max Scherzer has multiple Cy Young awards but no title. The entire Nationals playoff rotation is in the top seven, here. Two years ago, Justin Verlander ranked highly on this list before he helped the Astros and himself win a title for the first time. Jansen is the only reliever on this list, but if we look at all players with at least 400 games or 1,000 innings, we see a few more:

Brett Cecil could technically be on this list, but he hasn’t played this season. Fernando Rodney is still going, while a handful of mid-30s relievers are all trying to achieve postseason success. Adam Ottavino was on the Cardinals in 2010 and was in the organization in 2011, but spent the entire season in the minors.

There’s no one right way to watch baseball or cheer for particular players or teams, but if seeing team accomplishments line up with great careers matters to you, you might consider pulling for the Dodgers, Nationals, and Astros. They all feature great pitchers with long careers still looking for a ring.

In a postseason field dominated by the league’s foremost home run-hitting teams, the Tampa Bay Rays are one of a couple outliers. With 217 homers during the regular season, they ranked ninth out of the 10 playoff teams, and just 21st across all of baseball, one of just three playoff teams not to rank in baseball’s top eight in dinger-mashing prowess. But on Wednesday, they proved to be as capable as anyone of leaving the yard.

Yandy Díaz smashed a pair of solo homers, while Avisaíl García launched a two-run shot and Tommy Pham added a third, solo bomb as Tampa Bay silenced Oakland 5-1 in the American League Wild Card game at Oakland Coliseum. The Rays will face the World Series favorite Houston Astros in the ALDS beginning on Friday.

The home run heroics got started before many fans in Oakland were probably able to find their seats. Leading off the game, Díaz worked a 3-1 count against A’s starting pitcher Sean Manaea before getting a fastball high and outside, and hammered the pitch over the opposite field fence in right to push the Rays in front. Manaea settled in to strike out the next three hitters, but he wasn’t able to hold off further damage for long. He surrendered a leadoff single to Matt Duffy to start the second, and after falling behind García 2-1, attempted to even the count once more with another fastball out and over the plate. García punished it.

With an exit velocity of 115 mph, Garcia’s homer was the hardest-hit ball by a Rays player ever recorded by Statcast. And they were just getting started. Díaz made his second plate appearance of the game leading off the third inning, and made it look exactly like the first one. Read the rest of this entry »

In one of the most thrilling finishes to a Wild Card game, the Washington Nationals defeated the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday night. That victory finally exorcised the nightmare that elimination games have been for the Nats over the last decade. Now their sights are set on the best team in the National League, the Dodgers.

At a Glance:

• Game 1: Thursday, October 3, 8:37 PM EST in Los Angeles
• Game 2: Friday, October 4, 9:37 PM EST in Los Angeles
• Game 3: Sunday, October 6, time TBD in Washington
• Game 4 (if necessary): Monday, October 7, time TBD in Washington
• Game 5 (if necessary): Wednesday, October 9, time TBD in Los Angeles

This five-game series sets up a clash between the top two starting rotations in the senior circuit. The Dodgers starters posted a park- and league-adjusted FIP 19% better than league average, and the Nationals were just a point right behind them. But in a short series, the quality of the top of the rotation is paramount, and these two teams are very top-heavy. Read the rest of this entry »

Getting dropped into a single elimination Wild Card game is like kicking off the postseason with Game Seven of the World Series. Suddenly, everything is on the line. The water is boiling. Alarms are going off. Stephen Strasburg is pitching in relief. There’s always two strikes. The crowd is either deathly silent or ripping off their jerseys.

Often, these games are won with abrupt offense, and in 2019, that means home runs. The league just hit a(nother) record-breaking number of them during the regular season, so last night, the Brewers and Nationals knew it was their jobs to swat as many balls out of the ballpark as they could before time ran out.

Yasmani Grandal hit one on the first pitch he saw, gifting Milwaukee an early lead by punching an inside fastball into the Nationals’ bullpen and celebrating with a seismic slap of his first base coach’s hand.

Eric Thames clubbed the next one on Max Scherzer’s 20th pitch of the evening, a low and away shapeshifter on the corner, and they both turned and watched it sail two or three rows back in right center to make it 3-0. Thames jogged muscularly around the bases, his arm adorned with robot armor from the future.

Trea Turner hit the last one, which gave a spike to the Washington pulse; a 98 mph heater high in the zone, just where he likes ‘em — a spot where, during the regular season, he hit .625. Turner’s bomb (in theory) set off the emergency alert system at Nationals Park, as if to assure people: Don’t worry, we’re still here. Read the rest of this entry »

After winning their respective divisions, the Atlanta Braves will face off against the St. Louis Cardinals starting on Thursday. This series looks evenly matched, with our Depth Charts projections (53%) and ZiPS (55%) both seeing the Braves as slight favorites. Before we get to the meat of the preview, let’s lay out the schedule. All games will be televised by TBS.

When and Where:

• Game 1: Thursday, October 3, 5:02 PM EST in Atlanta
• Game 2: Friday, October 4, 4:37 PM EST in Atlanta
• Game 3: Sunday, October 6, time TBD in St. Louis
• Game 4 (if necessary): Monday, October 7, time TBD in St. Louis
• Game 5 (if necessary): Wednesday, October 9, time TBD in Atlanta

What We’ll Be Watching For:

Injured Players
Ender Inciarte will remain out for this series, at least, after a hamstring injury struck him down in mid-August. Matt Joyce and Adam Duvall have platooned some with Inciarte out, though the Cardinals have no lefty starters, so the 35-year-old Joyce could play a big role in the series. He hasn’t shown a ton of power the last few years, but he’s walked 15% of the time against righties since the beginning of 2016 with a decently low 21% strikeout rate. Inciarte’s replacement in center actually meant an upgrade as Ronald Acuña Jr. took over, but the Braves’ star outfielder has injury concerns of his own; an apparent hip injury was classified as a groin strain and it is unclear how that injury might affect his superb baserunning or his defense in center field.

The health worries don’t end there for the Braves. Freddie Freeman has a bone spur in his right elbow, which he is still favoring, and though he played over the weekend, he struck out four times in 11 plate appearances and didn’t come up with an extra base hit. It was only the third three-game stretch all season during which Freeman struck out that often and didn’t get an extra base hit. All three stretches have come in the last six weeks. Every player is going to have sporadic, three-game down stretches, but given what we know about Freeman’s elbow, look for a lot of inside pitches to test whether the injury will continue to hobble the Braves’ first basemen. Josh Donaldson sat out the last game of the season after being hit on the hip with a pitch, but that injury appears less severe. Donaldson, Acuña, and Freeman have accounted for half of the 27.9 WAR accumulated by Braves’ position players this season (Ozzie Albies is the only other position player with more than 2.1 WAR); Atlanta would be a completely different team without that trio at full strength. Read the rest of this entry »

A year ago tomorrow — Wednesday, October 3, 2018 — Liam Hendriks started the American League Wild Card game for the Oakland A’s. Twenty-five pitches and one Aaron Judge home run later, Hendriks hit the showers with his team down 2-0. Three hours after that, the rest of his teammates joined him there. Tonight, the A’s will play in a one-game playoff for the third time in six seasons, and though Hendriks won’t be starting, he’s a big reason his team has a chance to prove an old saying true tonight.

“He’s really been one of our MVPs,” said Scott Emerson, the A’s pitching coach. “Last year, it was Blake [Treinen], and this year it’s been Liam. Last year when he got sent out [to Triple-A in early April], he really transformed his body and got into the long-toss program. That transformation came with a change in mindset and in approach. It didn’t hurt that the velo spiked, and the breaking ball got a whole lot better, too.”

The results have been spectacular. Hendriks was an All-Star in July for the first time in a nine-year career, bringing a 1.22 ERA and 2.06 FIP into that game, and his numbers since the break were, if anything, even better: a 1.60 FIP and a 45.7% strikeout rate. More to the point, he’s found success in the second half without also carrying the 89% strand rate and 0.17 HR/9 mark that led doubters to write off his first half as a run of good luck for an otherwise average pitcher. After the break, Hendriks stranded just 78% of baserunners and allowed 1.08 HR/9 — both much more in line with his career numbers of 70% and 1.04, respectively. Read the rest of this entry »

Outs are a scarce resource. Of all the insights the sabermetric movement has bequeathed, that one looms largest in a game like this, when an entire season hangs in the balance on every pitch. From the second that Yasmani Grandal’s line drive sailed over the right field wall for a two-run homer in the first, the Nationals were on notice:

You are losing. You only have 27 outs to fix it.

A month ago, Brandon Woodruff seemed an unlikely October hero. Not only were the Brewers fading, but Woodruff’s continued absence helped explain why. The righty went down with a strained oblique in late July, and didn’t return until the season’s final weeks. Even when he climbed back on the bump in September, the Brewers were cautious, limiting him to four innings across two late-season starts.

On the big stage, he could not have looked more in form. His heater, one of the fastest in the game on a normal night, reached triple digits and sat just a tick lower. He was amped from the first pitch, and where Max Scherzer tossed a shaky first inning, Woodruff looked settled. In mere minutes, he induced a groundout, a whiff, and a pop up.

Twenty-four outs to go. Read the rest of this entry »

Forcing baseball writers to make predictions isn’t particularly nice. People tend to remember the bad picks more than the good ones, and a lot of flukiness can reveal itself in a short stretch of games. Still, I’m a scamp, so I asked my colleagues for their postseason winners. Thirty-two writers from across our family of blogs answered the call. Many of them proved to be Astros and Dodgers believers but some went in less well-worn directions. Below are the results by league and round, as well as each writer’s complete forecast. Happy playoffs!

National League

Wild Card and Divisional Series

Read the rest of this entry »