Archive for Daily Graphings

Andrew McCutchen Boosts a Lackluster Outfield

Around this time last December, the Phillies reached a three-year agreement with free agent Carlos Santana. The contract included a fourth-year club option, and it was worth a total of $60 million. Santana was headed into his age-32 season, and between the ages of 29 and 31, he’d been worth 8.2 WAR, with a wRC+ of 117. Because of the qualifying offer Santana had attached, the Phillies lost their second-round draft pick, along with half a million dollars in international bonus-pool money. The Phillies thought it was a great deal at the time. Santana turned into a salary dump.

Now, this time this December, the Phillies have reached a three-year agreement with free agent Andrew McCutchen. The contract includes a fourth-year club option, and it’s worth a total of $50 million. McCutchen is headed into his age-32 season, and between the ages of 29-31, he’s been worth 7.4 WAR, with a wRC+ of 116. There is no qualifying-offer penalty to consider here, as McCutchen was traded last summer. The Phillies presumably think this is a great deal at the time.

The parallels are spelled out right there. If you feel like being negative, you could accuse the Phillies of making the same mistake two years in a row. Yet for a variety of little reasons, McCutchen seems like a more suitable get. This isn’t a bargain — McCutchen’s getting paid real money. But how this can work out is more clear, as McCutchen returns to Pennsylvania.

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Miguel Andujar Is Available

A rumor surfaced last night that a three-team trade might be brewing between the Mets, Yankees, and Marlins. According to Ken Rosenthal, J.T. Realmuto would head to the Mets with Noah Syndergaard going to the Yankees. While Realmuto might not fill the Mets’ biggest need, the Marlins catcher is a really good player who would provide a sizable upgrade over the options they have on the roster. For the Yankees, getting another ace-level pitcher in Syndergaard would help them to continue building their rotation after missing out on Patrick Corbin. As for the Marlins, they are obviously looking to get younger as they try to rebuild for the future. The player who might be headed to Miami? That would be Miguel Andujar.

The Yankees third baseman is coming off a very good rookie campaign, during which he batted .297/.328/.527 for a 128 wRC+. Andujar features a contact-heavy approach that limits walks and strikeouts. In the Yankees’ Top 27 Prospects write-up last year, this what Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen had to say about Andujar, who they ranked as the 14th-best prospect in baseball heading into the 2018 season.

Andujar has tantalized scouts since early in his pro career with a strong, athletic frame and flashy tools that are above average to plus across the board. He was largely seen as potential, even passed over by all 30 teams in the Rule 5 Draft following the 2015 season. He broke out in a huge way in 2017, reaching a critical mass of adjustments and maturity that showed up in the counting stats.

Andujar has cut down on his swing-and-miss while also lifting the ball more and hitting it with more authority, an obviously rare and desirable combination when you’re already working with a toolsy prospect who was always young for his level.

Andujar lived up to that report last season, and as a batter, he was a top ten third basemen in baseball. With five seasons left of team control, Andujar is a young, cheap potential star. As to why the Yankees might move him, Andujar was very bad on defense last year, 16 runs below average on defense by UZR and -25 by DRS. He should probably not be playing third base. I asked Longenhagen what position Andujar should be playing, and he said he would move him to right field. Andujar has a great arm and above-average sprint speed, so a move to the outfield might showcase his skills better than the hot corner does, but the Yankees already have a full outfield. First base might waste Andujar’s arm and some of his issues in the field might not be alleviated by moving across the diamond. Trading Andujar to help the rotation would also free up a spot to potentially sign Manny Machado.

Putting Andujar in right field limits his ceiling, as an average third baseman with his batting line last season would have been a 4-plus win player. Even slightly below average defense in right field would put Andujar in the three-win range, meaning the bat would need to take another step forward to compensate. That step forward is a possibility for a player who is just 23 years old, especially if he improves his walk rate a little and his strikeouts come down closer to his minor league numbers. That’s still an All-Star level player in right field. Even if the Yankees are making Andujar available, it shouldn’t be seen a huge slight to Andujar. He’s a good player now, and has the potential to be better.


The Next Frontier of Baseball and the Law

Perhaps the subject most frequently discussed in the chats and pieces that appear at FanGraphs is what the next great baseball innovation will be. Most teams have caught up on the analytics revolution heralded by Moneyball; even longstanding holdouts like the Orioles and Giants have surrendered to the inevitable and embraced the modern game. So what comes next? In an age in which everyone has access to advanced metrics, where will the next advantage be found?

One could argue that it’s already here and has been for a few years already, developing right under our noses. This movement actually started not in baseball, but in the National Basketball Association (NBA), which, in the past five years, began the gargantuan undertaking of incorporating biometrics – that is, the measurement of the bodies of the players themselves – into the fabric of the league. To see how this works, let’s take a look at this excerpt from a Tom Haberstroh ESPN story about how biometrics changed the career path of NBA star Kawhi Leonard.

When [Adam Silver] took over for David Stern [as NBA Commissioner], he made a series of changes to sharpen the NBA’s measurements. For the 2013-14 season, the league partnered with Stats LLC and installed SportVU player-tracking cameras in every arena. Now player speed, distance traveled and acceleration can all be cataloged and chewed on by data-crazed NBA fans and teams. The cameras even track potential assists.

In one sense, this sounds like the NBA version of Statcast. But it’s significantly more than that.

More quietly, in 2014 Silver hired a sports science institute called P3 Applied Sports Science to modernize the league’s draft combine. Beyond using tape measures, P3 puts players through a series of movements assessed by high-tech force plates embedded in the floor and cameras shooting from multiple angles, all feeding data into laptops. The founder, Dr. Marcus Elliott, says P3 asks not just how high do you jump but also how do you land and how high and how quickly can you jump a second time. The goal is to find patterns that predict injury. If a player lands on his right leg with disproportionately more force than his left, for example, that might be a signal of weakness in his left ankle. Even the smallest hitch in a player’s running pattern could, over time, create a chain reaction of physical breakdowns, a human butterfly effect.

So it is that the NBA has become primed to optimize a player with the right unique mix of physical attributes — the type of player who might have been overlooked just a few years ago.

In other words, while Statcast is looking at the metrics of what happened, the NBA has started looking for predictive metrics based on a player’s own physiological attributes.

During his second NBA season in 2012, Leonard was sidelined for 18 games with quadriceps tendinitis near his left knee. That offseason, the Spurs sent him to P3 to assess his vastus medialis, a teardrop-shaped muscle in the quads that powers the knee joint. “They focus on trying to balance out your body,” Leonard explains. “You don’t train there. I learned more about the body.” When P3’s evaluation showed imbalances from his injury — the particulars of which P3 refused to reveal to ESPN — Leonard and Shelton devoted that summer to ensuring his quads weren’t just strong but symmetrically and multidirectionally strong. “Most players are linear; they can run in a straight line and jump vertically,” Shelton says. “But with Kawhi, we focus on perfecting change of direction.”

The success of the NBA’s biometrics endeavors led the league the expand the initiative further – much further. In 2014, Eric Freeman wrote for Yahoo Sports that teams had begun monitoring their players’ sleep, and were proposing regular blood tests.

[T]he Golden State Warriors [are] having Andre Iguodala and others wear wristbands to monitor their sleep. In truth, most of the examples are fairly innocuous and involve players undergoing tests that would figure to improve their performance with minimal invasiveness. Every player mentioned also seems to take the monitoring and its results seriously, to the point where the information revealed could not be used against them in any obvious way.

However, the piece also includes several statements, like those from the Kings front-office members mentioned above, in which NBA decision-makers indicate that they would much prefer to track players’ fatigue levels with invasive procedures like regular blood tests. The stated goal is to keep players healthier so that franchises don’t lose money in salary via games spent on the bench, but the authors are right to suggest that the same information could easily be used against players in contract negotiations. . . . Rather, the question is if teams extracting data (or, as the recently retired Shane Battier fears, all bodily fluids) from players represents too much oversight and a breach of proper relations between employers and employees.

And last year, Jimmy Golen wrote for NBA.com that teams were now assessing players’ vital signs as they played, capturing that data and using it to predict injury and improve performance.

It is no longer enough for a basketball team to know how many shots a player makes, or even where he was standing when he made it.

Sports data is going biometric, tracking players’ heart rates, movements and energy levels to get a better picture of what’s going on inside their bodies as they run, jump and even sit on the bench. And, device-makers say, the technology can help coaches decide who needs a rest, who needs more work, or who might be most at risk for injury.

“Do you have eyes on every single athlete, every single session?” said Calvin Torres, a sports scientist with the tracker and data company Catapult, who’s heard all the complaints from old-time coaches who insist that they can do the same thing with their eyes and their instincts. “If you put a monitor on them, you do.”

These efforts have been so successful that teams in other leagues have joined them. As Golen wrote, “Catapult is already working with 16 NFL teams, 15 in the NBA and four in the NHL, along with more than a thousand in high school, college, national and pro teams in dozens of countries and sports from rowing to rugby and badminton to bandy.” By last year, NBA teams were talking about quantifying injury risks based on movement pattern analysis.

What’s missing in this strategy is objective, reliable information about a prospect’s injury risk factors and physical proposition. Unfortunately, there is not yet a mandatory pre-draft test that supplies such data. That’s where movement pattern analysis technology comes in – technology that provides coaches with a virtual team of biomechanical experts that output valuable insights that can lead them to making a more informed draft selection. With the latest solutions offering quick & automated assessment, teams need no more than a few minutes to obtain this imperative piece of knowledge during personal pre-draft workout sessions.

By getting a complete picture of a player’s capabilities — how strong his knees are, how stable his ankle movement is, how refined is his jumping technique — teams can greatly increase the likelihood that their pick will remain healthy and able to perform daily, and develop training plans that will enable turn them into the superstar they were yearning to get. Adding this piece to their puzzle, NBA decision-makers can sleep just a bit more soundly at night, knowing that they are way ahead of the curve.

This is the newest frontier in professional sports – and in major league baseball. And it’s easy to see why: the ability to quantify player injury risk, movement, and health is tantalizing. Imagine if teams could predict, based on movement pattern analysis, a pitcher’s risk for ulnar collateral ligament damage? Or if a team could anticipate injuries like Prince Fielder’s ultimately career-ending spinal damage before he signed his $214 million mega-deal with the Tigers? And the applications go beyond just injuries. Range could be quantified for infielders not just based on Statcast, but on physiological capability. Lateral movement and first-step quickness could be improved and predicted, not just measured. Age-related decline could be predicted with exacting accuracy based on measurable bodily degradation. Simply put, such technological advances could revolutionize professional sports.

But it’s not that simple. Why? Because teams are players’ employers. Think of the privacy concerns that could arise from your employer measuring your breathing, your heart rate, your blood levels, and even your sleep patterns, sometimes when you aren’t on the job. Suddenly, employees never have true off-time, because their employer knows their physiology whether they’re on the clock or not. If health information leaked to the press, it could be embarrassing or worse. There’s a reason that Congress passed the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996, which you probably know as HIPAA; in the United States, health information is and should be private.

FanGraphs’ own Rian Watt wrote for Vice Sports last year that the issue is rapidly approaching a critical point.

Imagine an office job wherein every keystroke, every mouse movement, and every roll of the desk chair is tracked and logged. Or don’t—such jobs already exist. Then add a heart rate monitor, a live video feed, and the inability to leave for another employer to that picture and you have a general sense of life as a professional baseball player in the biometric future.

The issue is that while HIPAA regulations say an employer generally can’t require an employee’s healthcare provider to turn over medical records, those regulations don’t prevent an employer from asking the employee to tender those records. In other words, HIPAA likely doesn’t stop baseball teams (or the NBA, or the NFL) from collecting biometric data. As Barbara Osborne and Jennie Cunningham wrote in an excellent article for the Marquette Sports Law Review:

Under the statutory language of HIPAA, most of the medical staff employed by professional sports teams would almost certainly be considered healthcare providers subject to the privacy and security requirements of HIPAA. . . . However, [the Department of Health and Human Services] issued a response during the notice and comment period that communicates the opposite effect: DHHS first noted professional sports teams were “unlikely to be covered entities” that would need to abide by HIPAA privacy rules. Further, even if teams would be covered or partly covered, DHHS noted that—although it did not condone a blanket reduction of privacy for an entire group of individuals (like players), it is fully within the purview of employers to “mak[e] an employee’s agreement to disclose health records a condition of employment” (as is maintaining a certain level physical fitness). DHHS adopted language “excluding employment records maintained by a covered entity in its capacity as an employer from the definition of ‘protected health information.’” Operationally, the effect of the guidance is to affirm teams’ power to compel players to disclose health information (waive HIPAA privacy) and subsume the information into the employment record of each player. Once considered part of the employment record, the contents of the record are not viewed as protected health information.

Recognizing this, the National Basketball Players’ Association (NBPA) negotiated language governing biometric data into their latest collective bargaining agreement with the NBA. Article XXII of the NBA’s CBA, governing Player health and fitness, guarantees that all player health information will remain confidential and the property of the player, and limits its allowable uses. And biometric data obtained from wearable technology cannot be used in contract negotiations.

Data collected from a Wearable worn at the request of a Team may be used for player health and performance purposes and Team on-court tactical and strategic purposes only. The data may not be considered, used, discussed or referenced for any other purpose such as in negotiations regarding a future Player Contract or other Player Contract transaction (e.g., a trade or waiver) involving the player. In a proceeding brought by the Players Association under the procedures set forth in Article XXXI, the Grievance Arbitrator will have authority to impose a fine of up to $250,000 on any Team shown to have violated this provision.

The National Football League Players’ Association (NFLPA) also sought protections for its players in its most recent CBA, including language saying that “players must agree to disclosure of their injury relevant HIPAA information…”

But so far, the MLBPA’s approach has been curiously divergent from that of the NBPA and NFLPA. While those unions have been working to limit the use of wearable technology and biometrics, the MLBPA has been slow to seek any protections for MLB players. And given how wearables and biometrics entered baseball in earnest in 2016, that’s somewhat distressing, particularly when you consider the warning Nathaniel Grow gave when he covered this topic most recently:

All told, then, with the exception of mandatory DNA testing, there is currently very little legal protection preventing MLB teams from subjecting their players to the obligatory collection of biometric data. As a result, given the prominent role that wearable technology is poised to play in the industry in the near future, this is certainly an area that the MLBPA would be wise to try to address in the next CBA.

And in August, Stephanie Springer wrote for The Hardball Times that MLB has approved nearly a dozen different wearable devices for in-game use, collecting data on everything from sleep patterns to heart rates.

Now, that doesn’t mean that the MLBPA has necessarily been asleep at the switch. Attachment 56 to the latest CBA, which governs wearable technology and data, guarantees the confidentiality of data obtained from wearable technology.

Any and all Wearable Data shall be treated as highly confidential at all times, including after the expiration, suspension or termination of this Agreement, shall not become a part of the Player’s medical record, and shall not be disclosed by a Club to any party other than those persons listed in this Paragraph 4 without the express written consent of the Player and the Association. In addition, all such Data must be destroyed or permanently deleted in the event a Player requests to have such Data destroyed or deleted, in which case a Player may request a copy of his data prior to its destruction or deletion.

This language is based, in part, on an Illinois statute called the Biometric Information Privacy Act (BIPA), and mirrors the language of the Illinois law. But there are differences. For one thing, biometric data is defined much more narrowly in Attachment 56 than it is in BIPA, giving MLB significantly more latitude. And Attachment 56 conspicuously omitted this language from BIPA:

A private entity in possession of biometric identifiers or biometric information must develop a written policy, made available to the public, establishing a retention schedule and guidelines for permanently destroying biometric identifiers and biometric information when the initial purpose for collecting or obtaining such identifiers or information has been satisfied or within 3 years of the individual’s last interaction with the private entity, whichever occurs first. Absent a valid warrant or subpoena issued by a court of competent jurisdiction, a private entity in possession of biometric identifiers or biometric information must comply with its established retention schedule and destruction guidelines.

And there are some other notable omissions. While the most recent CBA does guarantee that wearable data cannot be used in salary arbitration, there is no prohibition in the CBA on using it in contract negotiations generally, or in trades. Unlike the NBA’s CBA, there is no provision providing a penalty for violations. And unlike both the NFL and NBA agreements, the MLB CBA does not contain strict language stating that medical records are the property of the player. Now, the CBA does provide a prohibition on public disclosure:

A Club Physician or Certified Athletic Trainer treating a Player . . . shall be prohibited from making any public disclosure of a Player’s medical information absent a separate, specific written authorization from the Player authorizing such public disclosure.

That this language is less stringent than the NBPA negotiated has real effects, because it transfers the burden from the League to the player. And perhaps most significantly, the MLB CBA and Attachment 56 do not include minor league players within their scope, meaning that major league teams seemingly can lawfully compel minor leaguers to surrender data from wearable technology. As Nicholas Zych wrote for the DePaul University Journal of Sports Law, “In the approaching battle over [biometrics data] ownership, rights-holding Clubs will have a strong upper hand over MiLB players.”

And that’s another reason why the current CBA scheme is so flawed from the player perspective. If teams already know sensitive information regarding minor leaguers’ health – information which they are not required to keep confidential given the exclusion of minor leaguers from the CBA – it could give them a plausible-seeming reason to delay promotions and stunt service time accrual, and perhaps even manipulate trade value. And major leaguers could see their earning potential reduced by medical and biometric data dating from when they were in the minor leagues. When players are called up to the major leagues, sensitive data regarding their health may already have been compromised without remedy, giving further ground to a team which wishes to exploit it.

“With all of this, player consent is critical,” says Alan Milstein [to Watt], a New Jersey-based attorney who practices in both bioethics and sports law. . . . “A young player, 19 years old, when he sees the team physician, is going to be under the impression that that physician is his physician, and that there’s going to be some kind of doctor-patient relationship with some kind of fiduciary duty that the physician owes to him,” Milstein notes. “But that physician really works for the team, and that creates a lot of ethical issues.”

So what’s the solution here? This is one issue where the MLBPA needs to take a much firmer stance, not only on behalf of major league players but minor league players as well. Thus far, the MLBPA has notably been the least active union when it comes to these issues, and also the only one which provides such limited protections to future high-end professionals; the MLBPA CBA gives no defense to minor leaguer whose biometric data is being collected until the day he is added to a 40-man roster. That is simply not tenable, particularly given the incentive it gives teams to extract as much data as possible from minor leaguers for as long as they can. The MLBPA has essentially provided a route by which teams might one day have a staggering amount of private health information concerning its members, almost none of which will be subject to legal protection.


J.T. Realmuto Could Stand to Get out of Miami

The Marlins have an interesting relationship with J.T. Realmuto, who might well have blossomed into the best all-around catcher in baseball. The Marlins love Realmuto, and they’ve continued to insist that they want to sign him to a long-term contract extension, to keep him around as the centerpiece of the future core. Yet Realmuto has signed no long-term contract extension, and word has gotten out on more than one occasion that his side feels like he should be traded. You can understand why he might not trust that the Marlins are headed in a promising direction, given his own experiences with the team.

So even just from a psychological perspective, it’s clear why Realmuto might want a fresh start. But then, from a physical perspective, there’s also the matter of his home ballpark. It’s no secret that the Marlins play half of their games in a pitcher-friendly environment, but Realmuto himself has paid a particular price over his first few seasons.

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Mariners Claim Infielder to Pitch

Having already sold off most of his most valuable roster assets, Jerry Dipoto informed the media his top priority during the winter meetings would be to beef up the bullpen. I didn’t think this was how I’d start off a small post discussing the Mariners’ waiver claim of Kaleb Cowart.

I saw the press release in my inbox and initially didn’t think much of it. Lots of waiver claims today. Mike Gerber. Rio Ruiz. Kaleb Cowart. Others. But then there was a section that caught my eye:

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Royals Get Slightly More Interesting

Billy Hamilton does several things really well. Since the start of the 2014 season, Hamilton has stolen 264 bases, which is the most in baseball. During that time, he’s been worth 51 runs above average on the bases, which is also the best in baseball by a considerable margin. He’s been worth 55 runs above average on defense, which is sixth in the entire sport. Unfortunately, he’s also been a terrible hitter, with an anemic .244/.297/.332 line over the last five seasons. Of the 164 players with at least 2000 plate appearances over that span, Hamilton’s 69 wRC+ comes in dead last. The Reds no longer wished to deal with a player who, despite doing several things really well, is generally below average, particularly as Hamilton’s salary was set to rise in arbitration, so they did not tender him a contract. Hamilton has found a new home in Kansas City.

According to Buster Olney, the Royals and the speedy center fielder have agreed to a deal that will pay Hamilton $5.25 million, plus an additional one million dollars in potential incentives. MLB Trade Rumors projected Hamilton would receive $5.9 million in arbitration, so this deal falls a little short of that estimate.

For the Reds, the move opens up some options in a crowded part of their roster. With a full infield of Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, the surprising Jose Peraza, and Eugenio Suarez, the team didn’t have room for top prospect Nick Senzel. The third base prospect was tried out in the middle infield last season, but he seems likely to take on a new project in center field next year.

Given the terms of Hamilton’s deal with Kansas City, there wasn’t likely a robust trade market for him. In Kansas City, he should get the opportunity to show off his great defensive skills and base running for a team not likely to win a lot of games next year. The Royals still seem to be committed to Brett Phillips, part of the return for Mike Moustakas last season in a deadline deal with the Brewers. That means that Phillips will likely move to right field, and with Alex Gordon in left field, the team should have very good outfield defense, though perhaps not quite on the level of the Boston Red Sox.

Despite his flaws, Billy Hamilton is one of the more exciting players in baseball, and it is good for the sport that he appears to have found a full-time home for next season.


JAWS and the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot: Manny Ramirez

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2019 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2017 election at SI.com, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

A savant in the batter’s box, Manny Ramirez could be an idiot just about everywhere else — sometimes amusingly, sometimes much less so. The Dominican-born slugger, who grew up in the Washington Heights neighborhood of upper Manhattan, stands as one of the greatest hitters of all time, a power-hitting righthanded slugger who spent the better part of his 19 seasons (1993–2011) terrorizing pitchers. A 12-time All-Star, Ramirez bashed 555 home runs and helped the Indians and the Red Sox reach two World Series apiece, adding a record 29 postseason homers along the way. He was the World Series MVP for Boston in 2004, when the club won its first championship in 86 years.

For all of his prowess with the bat, Ramirez’s lapses — Manny Being Manny — both on and off the field are legendary. There was the time in 1997 that he “stole” first base, returning to the bag after a successful steal of second because he thought Jim Thome had fouled off a pitch… the time in 2004 that he inexplicably cut off centerfielder Johnny Damon’s relay throw from about 30 feet away, leading to an inside-the-park home run… the time in 2005 when he disappeared mid-inning to relieve himself inside Fenway Park’s Green Monster… the time in 2008 that he high-fived a fan in mid-play between catching a fly ball and doubling a runner off first… and so much more.

Beneath those often comic lapses was an intense work ethic, apparent as far back as his high school days, that allowed Ramirez’s talent to flourish. But there was also a darker side, one that, particularly after he left the Indians, went beyond the litany of late arrivals to spring training, questionable absences due to injury (particularly for the All-Star Game), and near-annual trade requests. Most notably, there was his shoving match with 64-year-old Red Sox traveling secretary Jack McCormick in 2008, which prefigured Ramirez’s trade to the Dodgers that summer, and a charge of misdemeanor domestic violence/battery in 2011 after his wife told an emergency operator that her husband had slapped her face, causing her to hit her head against the headboard of the bed. (That domestic violence charge was later dropped after his wife refused to testify.) Interspersed with those two incidents were a pair of suspensions for performance-enhancing drug use, the second of which ran him out of the majors.

For all of the handwringing about PED-tinged candidates on the Hall of Fame ballot over the past decade, Ramirez is the first star with actual suspensions on his record to gain eligibility since Rafael Palmeiro in 2011. Like Palmeiro, Ramirez has numbers that would otherwise make his enshrinement a lock. In his 2017 ballot debut, he received 23.8% — a higher share than Mark McGwire or Sammy Sosa, players who were never suspended — from an electorate that appeared to be in the midst of softening its hardline stance against PED users, but dipped to 22.0% in 2018. He won’t get into Cooperstown anytime soon, but he won’t fall off the ballot anytime soon, either.

2019 BBWAA Candidate: Manny Ramirez
Player Career WAR Peak WAR JAWS
Manny Ramirez 69.4 40.0 54.7
Avg. HOF LF 65.4 41.6 53.5
H HR AVG/OBP/SLG OPS+
2,574 555 .312/.411/.585 154
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

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2019 ZiPS Projections – Boston Red Sox

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox.

Batters

Obviously, the top of the offense is extremely strong, with reigning MVP Mookie Betts and one of the most dangerous hitters today, J.D. Martinez, who can be forgiven for being relatively one-dimensional when that one dimension involves a 170 wRC+ and an OPS over 1.000. But there were some cracks in the back-end in 2018, with Eduardo Núñez a stretch as a full-time second baseman and Mitch Moreland inevitably cooling off after a hot start to finish with the Usual Mitch Moreland Stats. The team brought in Steve Pearce and Ian Kinsler to dampen these issues. Pearce’s tenure was much more successful, but he also remains a role player heading into his late-30s, albeit a very good one. I remain hopeful about Rafael Devers‘ future given that most players his age are still in the minors, but you can’t just wave away the fact that he regressed significantly both at the plate and in the field in 2018. Boston’s three-headed catcher-beast contributed defensively, and did a better job framing than dirty cops in a Brian De Palma movie, but you’d still like their bats to improve to a more normal version of terrible than we saw last season.

The good news is that when your highs are high and your lows are low, it’s easier to make a significant addition than it is if you have a team that’s fairly average from top to bottom. J.T. Realmuto would be just about the perfect fit for the team if the Marlins were motivated to make a reasonable trade. I suspect the Red Sox will be content with Moreland and Pearce at first as they more pressing needs on the roster. And Pearce probably was the best first baseman available in free agency, unless you’ve received some weird news from the future about how 2019 was the The Summer of Duda.

Pitchers

There’s not a lot to complain about in the rotation, so long as everyone is healthy. All five starters are projected to have ERAs better than league-average, and ZiPS, like Steamer, is cautiously optimistic about Nathan Eovaldi’s future, even though 200 innings shouldn’t be the default expectation for a pitcher with his injury history. Some depth would be nice, but Steven Wright is likely a perfectly capable emergency option and the bullpen, as constituted, is probably a below-average group. Even a diminished Craig Kimbrel is a tough reliever to lose. ZiPS thinks a lot of the no-name relievers can be adequate, especially Colten Brewer, a hard cutter/curve hurler picked up from the Padres a few weeks ago.

Bench and Prospects

The problem with the Red Sox farm system is that while it’s far from empty, trades and successful graduations have depleted the upper minors considerably, to the point that if the team is looking for a mid-season reinforcement, they’re more likely to call up a prospect rather than trade them for a more veteran solution. Sam Travis now has a .713 OPS in nearly a thousand Triple-A plate appearances; ZiPS has almost written him completely off as a prospect at this point. And there are no starting pitching prospects that are all that interesting for 2019. That Rusney Castillo has one of the best projections of the players currently at Triple A at .269/.304/.370 is a pretty good example of just how thin the high minors currently are. The big exception here is Michael Chavis, who ZiPS sees developing into an average third baseman with power upside, though not intriguing enough to be a better option than Devers in 2019, or a good enough hitter in the short-term to make Moreland and Pearce uncomfortable.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Mookie Betts R 26 RF 148 591 114 177 43 4 28 94 75 91 29 6
J.D. Martinez R 31 DH 140 529 88 153 32 2 36 106 59 151 4 1
Xander Bogaerts R 26 SS 150 584 91 166 37 3 20 91 56 117 11 2
Andrew Benintendi L 24 LF 153 582 95 165 38 6 18 91 70 110 21 5
Jackie Bradley Jr. L 29 CF 138 479 73 118 28 4 17 68 49 133 12 2
Rafael Devers L 22 3B 140 525 75 139 30 1 27 84 44 135 6 3
Ian Kinsler R 37 2B 115 448 64 113 25 1 11 46 38 64 13 6
Dustin Pedroia R 35 2B 96 384 47 104 17 0 7 44 38 51 3 3
Eduardo Nunez B 32 3B 128 479 57 134 27 2 10 54 19 69 14 5
Michael Chavis R 23 3B 94 363 49 88 22 1 17 54 24 117 3 1
Mitch Moreland L 33 1B 124 409 50 98 23 1 16 64 42 109 1 0
Brock Holt! L 31 2B 109 335 40 89 18 2 6 43 38 77 7 7
Rusney Castillo R 31 CF 111 435 48 117 24 1 6 42 19 81 9 5
Steve Pearce R 36 LF 77 239 32 61 13 1 10 36 25 51 0 1
Tzu-Wei Lin L 25 SS 111 386 44 95 17 4 5 32 30 90 7 6
Bobby Dalbec R 24 3B 116 435 56 87 23 2 21 62 42 212 3 3
Hanley Ramirez R 35 1B 102 386 49 97 18 0 16 61 38 88 5 2
Christian Vazquez R 28 C 89 293 34 75 15 1 4 25 16 54 5 1
Sandy Leon B 30 C 91 285 33 63 13 1 6 30 20 79 1 0
Brandon Phillips R 38 2B 92 355 46 93 20 0 7 36 16 59 4 4
Dan Butler R 32 C 66 217 23 48 12 0 3 21 21 54 0 0
Mike Miller R 29 SS 98 332 35 83 15 1 3 26 23 59 8 5
Tony Renda R 28 2B 92 338 38 87 20 2 4 31 20 54 9 3
Blake Swihart B 27 C 73 220 28 49 10 1 3 20 19 67 4 1
Jantzen Witte R 29 3B 102 371 41 87 22 2 7 38 29 102 4 3
Adam Lind L 35 1B 92 291 35 73 14 0 10 44 25 66 0 1
Ivan De Jesus R 32 2B 107 352 34 87 16 2 3 31 25 82 2 3
Marco Hernandez L 26 2B 72 246 27 62 11 2 5 23 9 65 2 2
Chad de la Guerra L 26 2B 99 385 43 82 16 2 10 39 27 131 5 2
Sam Travis R 25 1B 113 402 46 98 20 1 8 38 31 104 4 3
Austin Rei R 25 C 87 302 31 57 15 1 5 26 26 109 1 3
Juan Centeno L 29 C 74 252 24 63 12 1 3 24 13 46 0 1
Jeremy Barfield R 30 LF 65 233 28 48 9 0 9 28 18 83 0 0
Mike Ohlman R 28 C 79 268 31 53 10 0 9 30 29 112 1 0
Josh Ockimey L 23 1B 123 447 55 98 21 1 16 55 53 182 1 2
C.J. Chatham R 24 SS 113 437 42 105 17 3 5 36 18 110 7 5
Mike Olt R 30 3B 84 291 33 57 13 0 10 32 30 118 0 0
Cole Sturgeon L 27 RF 110 405 39 94 17 2 6 35 23 105 9 4
Kyle Wren L 28 LF 109 385 41 88 13 4 3 33 34 98 14 6
Aneury Tavarez L 27 RF 102 382 39 86 16 3 7 32 23 110 9 5
Tyler Hill R 23 RF 127 472 53 112 20 2 4 37 37 87 22 11
Victor Acosta R 23 RF 111 399 39 96 25 2 6 38 20 62 4 5
Brett Netzer L 23 2B 120 477 42 108 24 2 2 36 26 137 3 10
Tate Matheny R 25 CF 111 419 41 86 17 3 3 31 28 161 11 9

Batters – Rate Stats
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Mookie Betts .299 .379 .528 138 .228 .316 8.0 17 6.7 Al Kaline
J.D. Martinez .289 .361 .561 140 .272 .342 7.7 0 4.0 Tony Perez
Xander Bogaerts .284 .351 .461 114 .176 .327 6.2 -2 3.8 Alan Trammell
Andrew Benintendi .284 .360 .462 117 .179 .324 6.5 2 3.4 John Kruk
Jackie Bradley Jr. .246 .326 .428 99 .182 .307 5.2 5 2.5 Lloyd Moseby
Rafael Devers .265 .320 .480 109 .215 .309 5.6 -6 1.9 Fernando Tatis
Ian Kinsler .252 .317 .386 86 .134 .273 4.4 8 1.8 Ray Durham
Dustin Pedroia .271 .336 .370 88 .099 .298 4.5 3 1.3 Mark Loretta
Eduardo Nunez .280 .310 .407 89 .127 .310 4.8 0 1.1 Julian Javier
Michael Chavis .242 .299 .449 95 .207 .310 4.8 -1 1.1 Mark Reynolds
Mitch Moreland .240 .314 .418 93 .178 .289 4.7 4 0.9 Kevin Barker
Brock Holt! .266 .349 .385 96 .119 .329 4.7 -5 0.7 Pete Runnels
Rusney Castillo .269 .304 .370 78 .101 .319 4.1 1 0.5 Ken Berry
Steve Pearce .255 .336 .444 105 .188 .287 5.3 -3 0.5 Dusty Baker
Tzu-Wei Lin .246 .301 .350 73 .104 .309 3.6 2 0.5 Scott Leius
Bobby Dalbec .200 .280 .407 80 .207 .327 3.8 0 0.5 Jared Sandberg
Hanley Ramirez .251 .325 .422 97 .171 .287 5.0 -2 0.4 Cliff Floyd
Christian Vazquez .256 .300 .355 74 .099 .302 4.0 -1 0.4 Angelo Encarnacion
Sandy Leon .221 .277 .337 63 .116 .285 3.3 4 0.4 Chad Moeller
Brandon Phillips .262 .302 .377 79 .115 .298 4.0 -2 0.2 Frank White
Dan Butler .221 .296 .318 64 .097 .281 3.3 -1 0.0 Keith McDonald
Mike Miller .250 .302 .328 68 .078 .296 3.5 -1 0.0 Ever Magallanes
Tony Renda .257 .305 .364 77 .107 .296 4.1 -4 0.0 William Bergolla
Blake Swihart .223 .286 .318 61 .095 .307 3.3 -1 -0.1 Tony DeFrancesco
Jantzen Witte .235 .297 .361 74 .127 .305 3.7 -4 -0.2 Rodney Nye
Adam Lind .251 .307 .402 87 .151 .293 4.4 -3 -0.3 Glenn Adams
Ivan De Jesus .247 .306 .330 70 .082 .315 3.5 -3 -0.3 Marty Perez
Marco Hernandez .252 .280 .374 72 .122 .324 3.7 -5 -0.5 Juan Melo
Chad de la Guerra .213 .270 .343 62 .130 .295 3.2 0 -0.5 Chris Saunders
Sam Travis .244 .301 .358 75 .114 .310 3.8 0 -0.5 Juan Tejeda
Austin Rei .189 .272 .295 51 .106 .277 2.5 0 -0.5 Brian Moon
Juan Centeno .250 .290 .341 67 .091 .296 3.5 -6 -0.5 Ken Huckaby
Jeremy Barfield .206 .270 .361 66 .155 .277 3.3 -1 -0.5 Jeremy Ware
Mike Ohlman .198 .277 .336 62 .138 .299 3.2 -6 -0.6 Henry Mercedes
Josh Ockimey .219 .302 .378 80 .159 .329 3.9 -3 -0.6 Nate Rolison
C.J. Chatham .240 .273 .327 59 .087 .311 3.1 -1 -0.6 Eddie Zosky
Mike Olt .196 .274 .344 63 .148 .288 3.2 -4 -0.7 Jose Santos
Cole Sturgeon .232 .277 .328 61 .096 .299 3.2 3 -0.8 Greg Thomson
Kyle Wren .229 .292 .306 60 .078 .299 3.2 2 -0.8 Jason Maas
Aneury Tavarez .225 .273 .338 62 .113 .298 3.2 2 -0.9 Greg Thomson
Tyler Hill .237 .303 .314 65 .076 .283 3.4 0 -1.0 Stephen Kirkpatrick
Victor Acosta .241 .281 .358 69 .118 .272 3.4 -2 -1.0 Rod Bair
Brett Netzer .226 .270 .298 51 .071 .314 2.4 4 -1.2 Demetrish Jenkins
Tate Matheny .205 .258 .282 44 .076 .325 2.3 -2 -1.9 Kevin Batiste

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Chris Sale L 30 15 5 2.62 29 29 182.0 144 53 16 34 225
David Price L 33 13 8 3.78 28 28 164.3 158 69 20 42 157
Eduardo Rodriguez L 26 10 7 3.99 29 26 144.3 134 64 18 49 153
Rick Porcello R 30 13 10 4.36 30 30 175.3 186 85 27 40 158
Nathan Eovaldi R 29 8 5 3.98 23 22 110.7 118 49 14 26 96
Craig Kimbrel R 31 4 2 2.68 60 0 57.0 36 17 5 26 89
Matthew Kent L 26 7 6 4.79 27 27 150.3 179 80 17 45 91
Drew Pomeranz L 30 8 7 4.60 28 21 115.3 115 59 15 54 103
Chandler Shepherd R 26 8 8 4.79 23 23 124.0 144 66 17 31 81
Matt Barnes R 29 5 3 3.54 62 0 61.0 51 24 6 30 80
Joe Kelly R 31 4 2 3.58 65 0 60.3 54 24 4 29 60
Dedgar Jimenez L 23 9 9 4.92 25 24 130.0 146 71 16 52 88
Steven Wright R 34 4 4 4.46 21 11 82.7 85 41 11 32 59
Hector Velazquez R 30 4 4 4.58 34 14 96.3 108 49 13 32 64
Justin Haley R 28 7 7 4.88 25 21 107.0 121 58 14 37 75
Heath Hembree R 30 3 2 3.84 61 0 58.7 54 25 8 22 67
Ryan Brasier R 31 5 3 3.79 57 0 57.0 56 24 6 15 45
Carson Smith R 29 2 1 3.00 33 0 30.0 25 10 2 11 34
Mike Shawaryn R 24 9 9 5.18 26 25 133.7 148 77 23 47 104
Colten Brewer R 26 4 3 3.86 49 0 58.3 55 25 5 23 58
Marcus Walden R 30 4 3 4.36 29 8 66.0 69 32 5 28 45
William Cuevas R 28 8 9 5.14 28 22 126.0 139 72 19 52 96
Travis Lakins R 25 4 3 4.62 29 11 62.3 66 32 7 29 50
Brandon Workman R 30 5 4 4.30 54 0 60.7 61 29 8 22 54
Bobby Poyner L 26 1 1 4.33 50 0 62.3 66 30 9 16 52
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 35 3 3 4.70 31 4 51.7 50 27 7 22 49
Robby Scott L 29 3 3 4.47 53 0 52.3 50 26 7 23 51
Darwinzon Hernandez L 22 6 6 5.31 26 22 95.0 92 56 10 74 89
Bryan Mata R 20 5 5 5.27 18 18 68.3 71 40 4 59 46
Mark Montgomery R 28 4 4 4.57 46 0 45.3 45 23 6 21 43
Denyi Reyes R 22 8 9 5.49 19 19 101.7 118 62 18 34 59
Josh Taylor L 26 4 4 4.63 55 0 58.3 61 30 6 29 48
Trevor Kelley R 25 2 2 4.80 40 0 54.3 60 29 6 20 36
Matthew Gorst R 24 4 4 4.97 40 0 63.3 71 35 10 22 42
Tyler Thornburg R 30 3 3 4.86 48 0 46.3 45 25 7 23 41
Domingo Tapia R 27 4 5 5.12 44 5 65.0 73 37 8 31 43
Tanner Houck R 23 8 10 5.84 22 22 103.3 115 67 15 68 75
Teddy Stankiewicz R 25 8 10 5.95 25 21 134.7 168 89 28 42 82

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Chris Sale 727 11.13 1.68 0.79 .292 168 59 2.61 5.9 Johan Santana
David Price 689 8.60 2.30 1.10 .298 117 86 3.72 3.3 Frank Viola
Eduardo Rodriguez 611 9.54 3.06 1.12 .301 110 91 3.77 2.5 Chris Nabholz
Rick Porcello 748 8.11 2.05 1.39 .309 101 99 4.19 2.3 Moose Haas
Nathan Eovaldi 470 7.81 2.11 1.14 .313 111 90 3.82 1.9 Carl Pavano
Craig Kimbrel 233 14.05 4.11 0.79 .282 159 63 2.69 1.7 Greg Harris
Matthew Kent 672 5.45 2.69 1.02 .318 92 109 4.49 1.3 Jeff Johnson
Drew Pomeranz 510 8.04 4.21 1.17 .299 96 104 4.54 1.2 Rich Robertson
Chandler Shepherd 543 5.88 2.25 1.23 .311 92 109 4.52 1.1 Lary Sorensen
Matt Barnes 262 11.80 4.43 0.89 .313 124 80 3.38 1.1 Ryne Duren
Joe Kelly 263 8.95 4.33 0.60 .299 123 81 3.61 1.0 Jim Hughes
Dedgar Jimenez 585 6.09 3.60 1.11 .308 90 112 4.76 1.0 Wes Whisler
Steven Wright 363 6.42 3.48 1.20 .288 99 101 4.76 1.0 Diego Segui
Hector Velazquez 427 5.98 2.99 1.21 .304 96 104 4.76 0.9 Dallas Green
Justin Haley 477 6.31 3.11 1.18 .310 90 111 4.65 0.8 Bill Swift
Heath Hembree 249 10.28 3.38 1.23 .305 115 87 3.81 0.8 Jay Powell
Ryan Brasier 240 7.11 2.37 0.95 .291 116 86 3.83 0.8 Kent Tekulve
Carson Smith 126 10.20 3.30 0.60 .299 147 68 3.05 0.7 Danny Kolb
Mike Shawaryn 594 7.00 3.16 1.55 .303 85 118 5.07 0.6 Andy Taulbee
Colten Brewer 252 8.95 3.55 0.77 .307 111 90 3.61 0.6 Jose Rodriguez
Marcus Walden 293 6.14 3.82 0.68 .302 98 102 4.18 0.6 Ed Klieman
William Cuevas 566 6.86 3.71 1.36 .306 86 117 4.99 0.6 Jeremy Guthrie
Travis Lakins 281 7.22 4.19 1.01 .309 95 105 4.59 0.6 Tim Byron
Brandon Workman 263 8.01 3.26 1.19 .299 102 98 4.27 0.5 Kenny Greer
Bobby Poyner 267 7.51 2.31 1.30 .305 102 98 4.27 0.5 Chris Key
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. 225 8.54 3.83 1.22 .297 94 107 4.41 0.3 Don Aase
Robby Scott 230 8.77 3.96 1.20 .297 99 101 4.49 0.3 Scott Wiegandt
Darwinzon Hernandez 450 8.43 7.01 0.95 .303 83 120 5.17 0.3 Bryan Clark
Bryan Mata 335 6.06 7.77 0.53 .303 84 120 5.37 0.3 Rick Berg
Mark Montgomery 201 8.54 4.17 1.19 .302 97 104 4.50 0.2 Greg Bauer
Denyi Reyes 458 5.22 3.01 1.59 .296 80 125 5.56 0.2 Bob Tewksbury
Josh Taylor 264 7.41 4.47 0.93 .309 92 108 4.49 0.2 Philip Barzilla
Trevor Kelley 242 5.96 3.31 0.99 .305 92 109 4.53 0.1 Bob Miller
Matthew Gorst 282 5.97 3.13 1.42 .299 89 113 5.11 0.0 Rich DeLosSantos
Tyler Thornburg 206 7.96 4.47 1.36 .286 88 114 4.96 0.0 Craig McMurtry
Domingo Tapia 298 5.95 4.29 1.11 .307 83 120 5.04 0.0 Barry Hertzler
Tanner Houck 491 6.53 5.92 1.31 .306 76 132 5.73 -0.2 Randy Nosek
Teddy Stankiewicz 611 5.48 2.81 1.87 .310 74 135 5.75 -0.5 Cameron Reimers

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.


Sunday Notes: Alex Kirilloff Wore Out Iron Mike; Taylor Trammell is a Work of Art

Alex Kirilloff grew up hitting baseballs. A lot of baseballs. His father owns an indoor hitting facility, and having been home-schooled for much of his life, the top prospect in the Minnesota Twins system not named Royce Lewis would often accompany dad to work. He didn’t sit around reading comic books while he was there.

“I was blessed to have access to a cage, and I took advantage of that,” Kirilloff told me prior to suiting up for this summer’s Futures Game. “We had these big Iron Mike machines that would hold something like 600 balls in the hopper and I would hit two or three of those a day.”

This past season, he banged out a steady stream of hits against Florida State League and Midwest League pitching. Playing 65 games each in Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids, the left-handed-hitting outfielder stroked 107 singles, 49 doubles, seven triples, and 20 home runs. His slash line was a scary .348/.392/.578.

In terms of hands-on molding, Kirilloff isn’t Frankenstein’s monster. His hitting-instructor father didn’t skimp on pointers, but he also understood that a swing has to come naturally. Read the rest of this entry »


A Quick Refresher on the 2019 Today’s Game Ballot

Barring a blockbuster trade or free agent signing, the first big news out of the Winter Meetings, set to kick off this Sunday in Las Vegas, will be the election results from the Today’s Game Era Committee ballot, which will be announced on MLB Tonight at 8 pm ET/5 pm PT. Any of the 10 candidates — six players, three managers, one owner — receiving at least 75% of the vote will be inducted next July 21 in Cooperstown, along with any candidates elected by the BBWAA in their own balloting, the results of which won’t be announced until January 22.

Last month, when the slate was announced, I covered the basics of the Era Committee process and profiled each candidate at length. The full slate includes former outfielders Harold Baines, Albert Belle, and Joe Carter; first baseman Will Clark; starter Orel Hershiser; reliever Lee Smith; managers Davey Johnson, Charlie Manuel, and Lou Piniella; and owner George Steinbrenner. This handy navigational widget contains links to all of those profiles, as well as all of the relevant stats:

As previously noted, the ballot was assembled by an Historical Overview Committee composed of 11 BBWAA veterans, who filtered through dozens of candidates in the process: Bob Elliott (Toronto Sun); Jim Henneman (formerly Baltimore Sun); Rick Hummel (St. Louis Post-Dispatch); Steve Hirdt (Elias Sports Bureau); Bill Madden (formerly New York Daily News); Jack O’Connell (BBWAA); Jim Reeves (formerly Fort Worth Star-Telegram); Tracy Ringolsby (Baseball America); Glenn Schwarz (formerly San Francisco Chronicle); Dave van Dyck (Chicago Tribune); and Mark Whicker (Los Angeles News Group).

The ones doing the actual voting — behind closed doors, via secret ballots that can include up to four candidates — are on a separate 16-member committee of media members, executives and Hall of Famers. That group wasn’t announced until this past Monday. It is as follows:

Hall of Famers: Roberto Alomar, Bert Blyleven, Pat Gillick, Tony La Russa, Greg Maddux, Joe Morgan, John Schuerholz, Ozzie Smith, Joe Torre

Executives: Al Avila (Tigers), Paul Beeston (Blue Jays), Andy MacPhail (Phillies), Jerry Reinsdorf (White Sox)

Media: Hirdt (the only repeater from the HOC), Tim Kurkjian (ESPN), Claire Smith (ESPN)

The vast majority of the Hall of Famers are recent honorees; the institution doesn’t wait too long to get those folks involved in the process. Alomar, Blyleven, and Gillick were elected in 2011 (the last of those by the Veterans Committee), Maddux, La Russa and Torre in 2014 (the last two of those via the Expansion Era Committee), Schuerholz in 2017 (via the first Today’s Game Era Committee). Claire Smith was the 2017 recipient of the J.G. Taylor Spink Award, the Hall’s honor for writers. Morgan, currently the Hall’s vice chairman, was elected in 1990, Ozzie Smith in 2007.

Given the old Veterans Committees’ history of cronyism, most notably from the 1960s through the 1980s, it’s natural to look for the inevitable links between the voters and the candidates. That’s not to say that anything untoward will happen, but it’s worth noting who might have advocates in the room. I can’t swear that this is comprehensive (and I’m skipping the media connections), but these stand out:

  • Baines played under La Russa with the White Sox, and both he and Belle did so during Reinsdorf’s still-ongoing tenure as owner; the former made three separate stints with the team and has had his number retired during that time, while the latter briefly became the game’s highest-paid player during his time there.
  • Baines and Carter both played in Baltimore while Gillick was general manager.
  • Carter played with Blyleven in Cleveland, and with Alomar in Toronto, while both Beeston and Gillick were both executives.
  • Johnson managed Alomar in Baltimore, while Gillick was GM.
  • Manuel and Blyleven were teammates in Minnesota; Alomar played for him in Cleveland, and both Gillick and MacPhail have worked with him in Philadelphia.
  • Piniella managed in Seattle while Gillick was the GM.
  • Smith the reliever played with Smith the shortstop in St. Louis, and with Maddux in Chicago; also, he played for Torre in St. Louis
  • Steinbrenner’s stormy tenure as owner of the Yankees featured just one manager who lasted more than four seasons, namely Torre.

I’m not suggesting you take any of that information to the sports book in Vegas, but given the above connections, it would not surprise me if Manuel were elected, and I suppose the same could be said about Baines. To these eyes, however, Smith and Steinbrenner are the slate’s best candidates, and I believe the former all-time saves leader is the most likely to be elected, given that he received over 50% of the vote at one point during his run on the BBWAA ballot. If elected, he’d be just the third living ex-player honored by the Era Committtees, after Jack Morris and Alan Trammell who were elected via last year’s Modern Baseball ballot.

I’ll have coverage of the results here at FanGraphs on Sunday night.