Over the last few years, the difference in parity between MLB’s two leagues was remarkably striking.

Nearly every team in the AL — the White Sox and A’s being the notable exceptions — entered 2017 thinking they had some kind of shot at the Wild Card spot, and the Twins ended up securing a position in the play-in game with an 85-77 record. 9 AL teams won between 75 and 85 games last year, and while there were a few really good teams at the top of the pile, the AL was mostly known for its fairly even distribution of talent.

The NL, on the other hand, was a league of stars and scrubs. The Dodgers, Cubs, and Nationals won their divisions by a combined 37 games, and the most of the teams that weren’t trying to win last year — Braves, Phillies, Padres, and Reds — were in the NL giving free wins to their opponents. The NL’s stratification brought about calls to fix “tanking”, because the league had almost nothing in the way of a middle class.

This winter, it looks like the AL might be heading towards the NL model. While he hasn’t officially waived his no-trade clause yet, it sounds like Giancarlo Stanton is going to end up in New York for some combination of Starlin Castro and lower level minor leaguers. With the Yankees taking on just $260 million of Stanton’s deal without giving up anything of huge value, this is a pretty clear win for New York.

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After Giancarlo Stanton rejected deals to the Cardinals and Giants, the Yankees sensed opportunity and have reportedly reached an agreement to acquire the NL MVP. While the Shohei Ohtani decision Friday was the most anticipated news item of the offseason, this is a stunning and fascinating development.

sources: yankees and marlins have a deal for giancarlo stanton

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 9, 2017

Source: Giancarlo Stanton trade agreement is in place between #Yankees and #Marlins, but deal is still pending Stanton’s consent and Yankees approval of physical. @MLBNetwork @MLB

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 9, 2017

The stove is piping hot.

Already in possession of the only player to rival and exceed Stanton’s power and frame in Aaron Judge, the Yankees now have each of the game’s Statcast Gods — if Stanton approves the deal. Complete details are not known regarding the return for the Marlins. Read the rest of this entry »

Well, this is something.

#Yankees in play for Stanton, sources tell The Athletic.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 9, 2017

Sources: Yankees making progress on a trade for Giancarlo Stanton. One source cautioned nothing done. Another was confident it’s moving toward that. Either way, momentum for Stanton to Yankees is significant.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 9, 2017

#Yankees are indeed making a move to try to land Stanton. Deal coming into focus

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 9, 2017

After Stanton vetoed the Giants and Cardinals, and reportedly listed just four teams he’d accept trades to, the Yankees are turning into opportunists. Pretty clearly, they weren’t interested at the price SF/STL were willing to pay, but with those teams out of the running, it’s pretty easy to imagine Brian Cashman calling his former shortstop with an offer that is totally just helping out a former friend and not at all taking advantage of an executive who might be in over his head.

The Yankees already have an overcrowded outfield, with Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, and Aaron Judge as the penciled in starters, Jacoby Ellsbury a pretty decent (if overpaid) fourth OF, and Clint Frazier hanging around in case anyone gets hurt. While Ellsbury could be included in the deal as a salary offset, the Marlins were reportedly looking to avoid taking on money in the pre opt-out years, hoping that any financial commitment remaining on their books would be wiped out if Stanton did indeed exercise his option after the 2020 season.

And even if the team added Stanton, Ellsbury still has his usefulness as insurance for Hicks in center, so perhaps Brett Gardner and his easily movable $11M 2018 salary (with a cheap $12.5 million 2019 option) is more likely to be going back to Miami, since the Marlins wouldn’t have a hard time then flipping Gardner elsewhere in a separate move.

If the Yankees acquired Stanton, Frazier would also become somewhat redundant, so perhaps the Yankees would send back a pair of outfielders, consolidating their depth into a better starting left fielder. Of course, the primary downside of this plan would be that — barring a decision to totally punt CF defense — acquiring Stanton makes signing Bryce Harper less likely next year, and many have long speculated that Harper is going to end up in pinstripes. But if the Marlins are legitimately desperate and the Yankees can get Stanton for something in the low $200M range without parting with a ton of young talent, they’d very likely be better off making a deal now rather than trying to win the bidding for Harper next year.

It’s been a nutty 24 hours. It doesn’t sound like things are slowing down any time soon.

Update.

Best of luck, AL East lefties.

The Marlins struck two deals to trade Giancarlo Stanton and most of his remaining contract, one with the St. Louis Cardinals, and the other with the San Francisco Giants. Earlier today, the Cardinals announced that they were out of the running, and now, the Giants have made the same concession.

#SFGiants also announce they are out on Stanton.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 8, 2017

Stanton and his representatives likely imagined this exact scenario when they signed a long-term deal with Jeffrey Loria, knowing that the day would come when the Marlins decided that they only really wanted those first few cheap years, not the expensive ones at the end of the deal. Getting a full no-trade clause gives Stanton the ability to decide exactly where he wants to play, and apparently, it isn’t San Francisco either.

While there are some attractive things about the franchise, it’s not an entirely surprising decision. AT&T Park is one of the worst places to hit in all of baseball, and if Stanton is planning on opting out in three years, he probably stands a better chance of getting another raise if he doesn’t have to remind every other team about park effects as the primary part of his pitch. The Giants also were atrocious last year, and even with Stanton, would have been a fringe Wild Card contender, well behind the Dodgers in the NL West pecking order.

Plus, growing up in LA, I’m guessing he didn’t have the fondest feelings about the Giants as a kid. So when the arch rival of the team you grew up rooting for wants to trade for you, coming off a season where they posted the second-worst record in baseball, it’s probably not that appealing of an offer. And since Stanton has every right to dictate where he’s traded, there’s no real reason for him to settle for an option he doesn’t prefer, since he doesn’t have to.

For the Marlins, this is nothing short of a disaster. The teams that Stanton has reportedly indicated he will accept a trade to — the Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, and Cubs — can all win without him, and all of them are probably eying Bryce Harper as a potential free agent target next winter. To take themselves out of the Harper bidding at this point, they’re going to have to get Stanton at a significant discount. There’s no sense of urgency from any of those clubs.

At this point, the Marlins may very well be best served just waiting until next year, then marketing Stanton as the cheaper alternative to the teams that don’t get Harper. Trying to force a trade now, when they have almost no leverage, is how a franchise makes a disastrous decision. If the Dodgers want to get into a bidding war, the Marlins should obviously consider it, but they’re now in dangerous territory, and could end up making a colossal mistake if they refuse to see any other options besides trading Stanton this winter.

Shohei Ohtani has decided to sign with the Angels. I don’t think many people were expecting an Ohtani announcement on Friday. And I don’t think many people were expecting Ohtani to go where he’s going. There’s a lesson in here, perhaps, the lesson that you should never assume another person’s motives. Yet that lesson also isn’t very helpful. The Ohtani sweepstakes were essentially unprecedented. We’re not going to see many cases like this in the future. By and large, we know how baseball decisions get made. We knew hardly anything about this one. Even though the Angels were there as one of the seven finalists, they were mostly written off, right up until they won.

The Yankees were seen as a favorite. Endorsement opportunities, and everything. They were eliminated early. The Mariners were seen as a favorite. History of Japanese players having success. No dice. The Giants were in there, having recently won a bunch. The Dodgers and Cubs were in there, being presently very good. The Rangers and Padres were in there, with Ohtani pursuits dating back several years. I don’t know what it was that might’ve allowed the Angels to stand out. Ohtani has indicated only that he felt the closest bond with them. That made the difference. You might want to think it was Mike Trout, but, according to Ohtani, it was the team connection.

There’s nothing there to analyze, I don’t think. Not in any meaningful way. Ohtani didn’t go for the most money. He went for what felt right in his heart. That’s the very definition of personal, and what matters most to Ohtani might not matter much to other people. In this case, it doesn’t matter what matters to other people. Something about the Angels spoke to Ohtani’s desire. That’s the whole story. We all have our own things we feel connected to. Those connections might not always seem outwardly to make the most sense.

Now the Angels have a talented young pitcher, who is also a talented young hitter. You’ve been hearing about Ohtani for years, so I don’t need to give you the summary. You know what he’s about. He’ll have to be managed carefully, and there’s certainly some amount of risk, but had Ohtani been an unrestricted free agent, he would’ve signed for something like $200 million. He’s about to earn, instead, the league minimum. Right now, Ohtani is probably one of the 10 or 15 most valuable players in the league. The Angels just…got him. They picked him up and put him on the roster. For all 30 teams, this was a one-time opportunity. It’s the Angels who now get to look a whole hell of a lot better.

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Congratulations to the Angels and the good people of Anaheim, Shohei Ohtani has chosen you.

He perhaps has also chosen wisely.

Ohtani’s agency, CAA, released a statement Friday afternoon saying their client of international interest and acclaim had made his decision after meeting with seven finalists this week. The Angels had made trades to acquire $2.3 million in bonus pool money.

Statement from agent Nez Balelo on Ohtani's decision to join the #Angels pic.twitter.com/NIc3APCbtS

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 8, 2017

An American League destination always seemed to make the most sense due to the DH role for a player who desires to hit and pitch, who desires to be a historic and unique figure within the game. While there seem to be some indicators that Ohtani preferred a small, West Coast market, he chose the No. 2 team in the nation’s No. 2 market.

With Ohtani and Mike Trout now on the roster, the Angels are a must-see attraction in 2018 and beyond. Read the rest of this entry »

In the simulation baseball game called Hardball Dynasty in which Carson and I participate alongside other BBWAA writers (whose names have been redacted for privacy), international-free-agency dollars are a prized commodity.

International free agency, unlike the amateur draft, represents a market in which teams have access to elite talent regardless of their place in the standings. Carson and I and our 30 leaguemates are always waiting for the fake, digital Shohei Ohtani to be made available for our fake, digital dollars. Of course, there’s also a point at which international market budgets can become too greatly inflated, allowing for an opportunity to invest elsewhere.

Back in the real world — where there are real teams, real players, and real decisions being made — I applaud the Twins for what they did on Wednesday by trading in some of their international dollars for other prospect talent. It occurs at a time when international dollars should, theoretically, never be more valued.

When the Twins learned they were not one of the seven finalists for Ohtani despite possessing the most dollars available, they went searching for opportunity. After all, at that point, their $3.5 million in international pool money was more valuable to the seven finalists. Even though money appears not to be the primary motivator for Ohtani and even though the signing bonus he’s permitted to receive under the terms of the current CBA will be paltry relative to the endorsement opportunities he’s offered, bonus dollars have to rank somewhere on Ohtani’s priority list. At the very least, those pool dollars could be a sort of tiebreaker.

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With the likely winner of the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes becoming a bit more clear, 23 teams now find themselves in an interesting situation. Before Ohtani had narrowed his list, many of those clubs had hoarded their international bonus money for the big moment. Following the announcement of Ohtani’s seven finalists, however, they were left with the capacity to offer free-agent bonuses, but few actual players in whom to invest that money.

Fortunately for them, a fresh set of prospects emerged thanks to the Braves’ indiscretions on the international market. Some teams — including the Angels, Phillies, and Royals — pounced quickly, using funds from the 2018-2019 pool to sign some of the top ex-Braves. Other teams will assuredly put their remaining bonuses to use in this way, taking a chance that these players will thrive in a new system.

There is, of course, one other way in which teams can put their bonus dollars to work, and it’s one that seems to have increased in popularity during this year — namely, by trading the bonus money. The rules for this have changed a few times. Under the terms of the most recent CBA, however, a team can trade away its entire international bonus pool or acquire additional funds up to 75% of their initial pool through trades.

Some teams have taken advantage of this rule to trade substantial portions of their bonus pools, to varying levels of public approval. The last few days, specifically, have seen the remaining teams in the Ohtani sweepstakes make trades to augment their pools.

Is this a smart strategy? Before we disparage or praise teams for using their bonus pools in this fashion, it’s worthwhile to look at what teams are getting with this particular kind of asset.

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Yesterday, Tyler Chatwood signed with the Cubs for $38 million over three years. Given his velocity and run prevention at altitude, there’s a reasonable case to be made that Chatwood comes with enough upside to make this a very intriguing bet by the Cubs.

But while Chatwood remains interesting, one thing he can’t be described as is durable. He’s had Tommy John surgery twice (once in high school), missed nearly all of the 2014 and 2015 seasons, and has never thrown more than 158 innings in a season. The history of guys who have already had Tommy John revision surgeries is not very good, and quite simply, Chatwood’s health is a legitimate question mark. While the Cubs bought some real upside here, there is also a non-zero chance that they just spent $38 million to watch Chatwood spend most of the next three years rehabbing his elbow.

So, if we were plotting all pitchers on a risk/reward graph, Chatwood would be about as far from the middle of the graph as a point gets. Interestingly, though, the market also recently decided that the guy at the very opposite end of this spectrum is also worth $38 million over three years.

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The Hall of Fame’s Modern Era committee is scheduled to vote on Sunday, with the results announced later that day. Who among the 10 candidates will be elected into Cooperstown is anyone’s guess. Based on previous veterans’ committee decisions, it won’t be many — if any at all. The electorate consists of 16 members, and the support of at least 12 of them (75%) is needed to cross the threshold.

We conducted a poll of our own, asking a cross section of baseball writers from around the country (and Canada) which of the candidates is deserving. We requested, along with their selections, a brief explanation for each Yes vote. (As you’ll see below, “brief” is a relative term.)

Here are the responses, with final results tallied at the end.

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Mike Axisa, CBS Sports
Selections:Tommy John, Marvin Miller, Alan Trammell.

“Tommy John was a borderline Hall of Famer as a player, and I think his impact on the game through the surgery that bears his name should be considered, and that pushes him in for me. John’s overall impact on the game, both as a player and medical marvel, are Cooperstown worthy.”

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