Nobody likes a quick exit from the playoffs, but a brief October cameo would have been an especial humiliation for the 2025 Detroit Tigers. After spending much of the season fighting for the league’s best record, and collecting a 14-game divisional lead at one point, the Tigers went nine games under .500 in the second half. Not only was that bad enough to throw away the division title, Detroit nearly missed the playoffs altogether, only squeezing in thanks to a tiebreak advantage over the Houston Astros. So Thursday’s 6-3 win in Game 3 of the Wild Card series must come as a relief, especially given the measure of revenge that comes with beating Cleveland.

Jack Flaherty got the call in Game 3, his first playoff appearance for the Tigers. There had to be some trepidation about Flaherty, given that his last quality start came back in mid-August. While his 4 2/3 innings of work were short on highlight moments, and he allowed three 100 mph liners that fortunately found leather instead of grass or dirt, Flaherty confined the hits to two-out rallies, leaving Cleveland little room for any bunting or other little-ball shenanigans until the fourth inning. A George Valera double and a José Ramírez single got the Guardians on the board in the fourth, but the danger ended when J-Ram was caught stealing and Chase DeLauter hit into a double play. Flaherty did at least avoid angering the cruel deity that governs predictions; last offseason, he famously said that the Tigers would have defeated the Guardians in last year’s playoffs if he hadn’t been traded to the Dodgers at the deadline. Read the rest of this entry »

On Wednesday afternoon, I briefly thought that A.J. Hinch had lost his mind. I really don’t know how else to explain it. With runners on the corners and one out in the top of the seventh inning of Game 2 of the Wild Card Series between the Tigers and the Guardians — which Cleveland won, 6-1 — Detroit had Riley Greene, its best hitter, at the plate with a chance to break a 1-1 tie. The Guardians went to the bullpen, bringing in lefty Tim Herrin. Herrin, a 6-foot-6 curveball specialist, figured to be a tough matchup for Greene; he’s been lights out against same-handed batters throughout his career. But then Hinch made a surprising call to the bench. He pulled Greene back and pinch-hit with Jahmai Jones – and now here I am writing this article.

Jones had one key thing going for him here: Like Inigo Montoya, he is not left-handed. He’s also hit lefties much better than righties in his brief major league career, and in his minor league career, too. Greene, on the other hand, is a poor left-on-left hitter. So you can at least see where Hinch’s decision was coming from. I want to give this kind of shocking decision the full consideration it deserves before just laughing it out of the building – after all, what if it was the right call? So let’s do all the math to get an idea of what Hinch was giving up, and what he was getting.

To model pitcher-against-batter outcomes, I first took projections for both players, the granular ones that consider specific outcomes. I also calculated platoon splits for each player by taking their observed career splits and regressing them toward league average based on sample size. I put those two projections – hitter and pitcher – into a modified log5 formula and used it to predict the likelihood of each possible outcome of a plate appearance. Then I applied those outcomes to the game state when Greene’s spot came up in the lineup.

That’s a lot of explanation jammed into one paragraph, so I think an example is in order. Let’s say that the Jones-Herrin confrontation results in a single 25% of the time, a deep fly ball 25% of the time, a strikeout 25% of the time, and a walk 25% of the time. Those are nowhere near reasonable, of course, but just an example. A single would mean runners on first and second (at least) and a 2-1 lead, for a win probability of 73.4%. A deep sacrifice fly? That would get the Tigers to 66.6%. A strikeout? 50.1%. Walk? 65.7%. Average those four probabilities, and the Tigers come out with a 64% chance of winning the game. There are more than four possible outcomes, of course, but this process is how I turn outcomes into win probabilities. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — Jazz Chisholm Jr. was not a happy camper on Tuesday night. Despite a 31-homer, 31-steal season that included a solid showing against left-handed pitching, he spent the first seven innings of the Wild Card Series opener against the Red Sox on the bench instead of facing lefty Garrett Crochet. After the Yankees’ 3-1 loss, he was left muttering almost inaudibly at his locker with his back to reporters — a surreal scene. Back in the lineup on Wednesday night against righty Brayan Bello, Chisholm went 0-for-3 but made huge contributions on both sides of the ball, with two standout defensive plays and an eighth-inning walk that turned into the decisive run when he motored home from first base on Austin Wells’ long go-ahead single. The Yankees’ 4-3 win kept their season alive, pushing the series to Game 3.

Despite hitting a respectable .248/.322/.411 (106 wRC+) against lefties this year (compared to .240/.336/.508, 134 wRC+ against righties), Chisholm sat on Tuesday night in favor of righty Amed Rosario — who played just one game at second base after being acquired from the Nationals on July 26 — apparently on the basis of Rosario’s owning a 6-for-9 career line with two extra-base hits against Crochet entering play Tuesday. Rosario went hitless in three plate appearances against the Boston ace before yielding to Chisholm in the eighth inning; Chisholm flied out with the bases loaded in the ninth against Aroldis Chapman.

Manager Aaron Boone wasn’t worried that Chisholm’s disappointment at being left out of the lineup would carry over into Game 2. “I don’t need him to put a happy face on,” Boone said Wednesday afternoon. “I need him to go out and play his butt off for us tonight. That’s what I expect to happen.” Read the rest of this entry »

The first inning was a harbinger. The eighth inning featured an offensive explosion for a team that all too often struggles to score. The Cleveland Guardians plated five runs to break a 1-1 tie and went on to beat a thoroughly frustrated Detroit Tigers team 6-1. The season-saving rally evened the best-of-three Wild Card series at one apiece, setting up a decisive finale for tomorrow afternoon in Cleveland.

The Tigers had their chances. Make that many chances — the first of which came as fans at Progressive Field were just settling into their seats. Parker Meadows pulled a groundball into the four-hole that second baseman Brayan Rocchio could only smother, giving Detroit the first of its 17 baserunners (yes, 17) on the day. Center fielder Chase DeLauter — playing in the first inning of his first big league game — then lost a battle with the sun and wind, dropping a fly ball and giving the Tabbies an early opportunity to open up a lead. Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee survived the little-fault-of-his-own threat. Three strikeouts later, the game went to the home half scoreless.

It didn’t remain scoreless for long. Two batters in, George Valera — a rookie with just 17 major league games under his belt — took Detroit starter Casey Mize deep. It was the first of three Guardians home runs on the day, and while it gave them an early lead, it paled in importance to the two that came later.

One of the game’s biggest plays took place in the fourth inning. With the bases juiced courtesy of a Riley Greene double and a pair of free passes, Javier Báez laced a two-out single to give the Tigers a 2-1 lead… or so it seemed. Zach McKinstry was thrown out trying to go first to third, and the out was recorded just before Dillon Dingler crossed the plate with what would have been the second tally. Initially ruled safe, McKinstry was ultimately determined to be out per video review — this on DeLauter’s first career outfield assist. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK – One day before taking the mound at Yankee Stadium for the most important game of his life, Garrett Crochet sat in the visitor’s dugout with Alex Cora. A few members of the front office were out in the bullpen, and Cora told his ace that it’d be fun to give them a call.

“Tomorrow you are going to make one call to the bullpen,” Crochet said. “Maybe two,” the manager responded.

But the 26-year-old lefty was adamant. One pitching change, with Aroldis Chapman closing things out, was all it would take for the Red Sox to beat the Yankees in Game 1 of the best-of-three AL Wild Card Series.

So, naturally, that’s exactly what happened. Crochet dominated the best offense in baseball across 7 2/3 innings. He allowed one run, four hits, no walks, and struck out 11 before he was finally pulled after 117 pitches, the most he’d ever thrown in the majors. Cora called on Chapman, who secured a four-out save and a 3-1 Boston win. Read the rest of this entry »

Wrigley Field and its patrons are accustomed to day baseball, as the club still honors its once electricity-free history by playing Friday home games in the afternoon rather than at night. And so despite having not hosted playoff baseball since 2020 (and a playoff win since 2017), the scene on Wild Card Tuesday, a day that saw Chicago bathed in gorgeously clear fall light while still enjoying lovely late-summer temperatures, was a familiar one, as the Cubs dispatched the visiting Padres 3-1 in a brisk Game 1. The afternoon’s action was headlined by back-to-back home runs by Seiya Suzuki and Carson Kelly, as well as the perfect 4 2/3 innings worked by the Chicago bullpen.

Much like ABC’s broadcast, both offenses struggled to make sustained noise (was anyone else’s volume constantly fluctuating?) in this game. The teams combined for just 10 total hits, and the Cubs didn’t have a single hit with a runner in scoring position all afternoon. Under the hood, it was the Padres who made more frequent, high-quality contact, even though they managed just four hits. San Diego was responsible for 14 of the game’s 21 hard-hit (95 mph or more off the bat) balls in play, many of which were struck right at Cubs defenders. Read the rest of this entry »

The first game of the 2025 postseason played out exactly as scripted, plus or minus a few crazy bounces. In the Wild Card series between the Tigers and the Guardians, the aces looked like aces and the offenses looked, well, inoffensive.

Tarik Skubal, who will be picking up his second straight Cy Young in a month or so, carved up the Guardians to the tune of one (barely) earned run over 7 2/3 innings. Gavin Williams, who put up a 3.06 ERA and allowed just six runs over his final five regular season starts, returned the favor, allowing two unearned runs over six innings and change. The two starters combined for 22 strikeouts, with 14 of them coming from Skubal, who earned the win and gave Detroit a 1-0 series lead. Read the rest of this entry »

As somebody who watched almost every single Anthony Volpe defensive play this year, I can confidently say that for a lot of the season, he didn’t look comfortable attacking the ball. What I mean by that is this: In his couple of steps right before fielding the ball, he didn’t look like he was moving in rhythm. He led the AL with 19 errors, 13 of which came while throwing.

Last season, he was one of the best defenders in the sport. What he lacks in top-end athleticism and arm strength he made up for with supreme footwork, instincts, and pace. He doesn’t have the luxury of a rocket arm, making all those features even more important. This season, the quality of his footwork around the ball was inconsistent and led to mistakes on plays he made consistently through the first two seasons of his career, both with his glove and the accuracy of his arm.

Some of Volpe’s defensive woes could be related to his health. He played through what was later revealed to be a partially torn labrum in his left shoulder, an injury that occurred on May 3, when he felt a pop in the joint while diving for a ball against the Rays. He finally received a cortisone shot to address the injury on September 10, more than four months later. Only three of his 19 errors came before he hurt his shoulder, and he didn’t make an error in his 12 games after returning to the field from the shot. Although the injury wasn’t to his throwing arm, it still could have affected his throws. Shortstops use their left arm as a stabilizer to lead them in the correct direction while throwing. Think of the basic mechanics you’re taught as a kid: Point your glove at the target, step at the target, then throw the ball. If your non-throwing shoulder is hurt, you may not be able to use it to properly begin the mechanics for an accurate throw. Many times, shortstops are fielding the ball while moving and don’t have time to plant their feet and step directly toward first base before releasing the ball. In these instances when the lower half of the body is neutralized some, it’s even more important to have a healthy non-throwing arm to direct the ball. That’s especially true for shortstops like Volpe who don’t have strong throwing arms and rely on a quick release to compensate. There’s no way to know how much the shoulder was bothering him, but that is likely how it would have hindered his play.

If the shot did the trick, and if the shoulder truly was the primary cause for Volpe’s poor fielding, then the Yankees should be in a much better position entering the postseason, when making one play could mean the difference between advancing and getting eliminated. He’ll be at shortstop tonight at 6:08 p.m. ET, when the Yankees host the Red Sox in Game 1 of the best-of-three AL Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium.

With all that in mind, let’s break down Volpe’s defensive season to get an understanding of what went wrong and how, maybe, it could all be going right again at the most important time of the year. Read the rest of this entry »

The Cleveland Guardians are playing postseason baseball for the seventh time in the past 10 seasons, and it’s not because of a prolific offense. The low-budget AL Central club doesn’t score a high number of runs, but neither do its opponents. The Guardians allowed the third fewest runs in the junior circuit this year, and only the Houston Astros have been stingier over the past decade. Cleveland’s reputation as a pitching factory is well-earned.

How do Guardians hurlers view the organization’s pitching group, which is fronted at the big league level by pitching coach Carl Willis and includes assistants Brad Goldberg and Joe Torres, as well as bullpen coach Caleb Longshore? I recently asked that question to a quartet of Cleveland pitchers, three of whom are on the current staff, and another who was on the team prior to this summer’s trade deadline.

Before we hear their thoughts, though, it makes sense to touch on the 26-year-old right-hander who is slated to take the mound in this afternoon’s Wild Card Series opener against the Detroit Tigers. I didn’t talk to Gavin Williams about the Guardians pitching group, but I did ask him how his game has grown since we first spoke two years ago. Read the rest of this entry »

Reds fans, listen up. This isn’t so much a preview as it is a blueprint for how the Reds might upset the Dodgers – and let’s be real, it would be an upset, they’re the Dodgers. As for the Dodgers fans among you, don’t get too worked up. You’re surely reading this preview to figure out whether the Reds are going to upset the Dodgers, so this is just what you’re looking for too. And all you neutral fans? I’m pretty sure that if you’re reading this, it’s because you’re wondering whether the Reds can upset the Dodgers.

They can, obviously. It will just take a few carefully planned steps. Step one: get at least two great starts from your three starters. The Reds line up with Hunter Greene for Game 1, Nick Lodolo for Game 2, and Andrew Abbott for Game 3. Good starts in two of those games – say, two or fewer runs in six or more innings – will go along way towards keeping Cincinnati in range to strike. All three would be preferable, of course, but two feels like an absolute necessity given the uphill battle you’ll be reading about shortly.

Greene, of course, is the best chance for one of those aforementioned great starts. That’s just what he does now. He’s coming off a month of brilliance, and he shut down the Cubs’ sixth-ranked offense (110 aggregate wRC+) in a complete game shutout on September 18. The Dodgers’ second-ranked offense (113 aggregate wRC+) will be tougher to wrangle, but tougher is not the same as impossible or even improbable. If you made me pick one starter in all of baseball to win the next game, I’d pick… well, I’d pick Paul Skenes, and I’d probably go with Tarik Skubal next. But Greene would be in my top five, and so for our upset blueprint, let’s just count on him giving us a great game. Read the rest of this entry »