They say you should never go to the grocery store hungry. If you do, you could end up like the Padres: A cart full of shortstops, eye-catching extensions for key players like Yu Darvish and Robert Suarez, and even a couple fun veteran DH types from the end caps to snack on during the drive home. Then you get home, unload the car, and realize you forgot something essential like bread, or coffee, or the entire back half of a starting rotation.
So you have to go back to the store and pick up a Michael Wacha before spring training:
Wacha agreement with Padres has complex structure that could earn him more than $24M over four years, sources tell @TheAthletic. Deal includes player and team options that protect both Wacha’s upside and downside while lowering his AAV for luxury-tax purposes. Pending physical.
The Dodgers have had a fairly quiet offseason by their recent standards. Because they are set to exceed the competitive balance tax threshold for the third consecutive season, any spending over the $233 million limit will carry a 50% tax. As a result, Los Angeles has settled for smaller moves, bringing in Miguel Rojas via a trade with the Marlins and signing a couple of veterans to one-year deals. They added another free agent to that group on Friday, inking David Peralta to a one-year, $6.5 million contract with incentives that could bring the total to $8 million.
A long-time member of the Diamondbacks, Peralta peaked in 2018 with a 130 wRC+ and a career-high 30 home runs. In the three years after that breakout, he fell back to being a league average hitter with good plate discipline and decent power. A late-ish bloomer who converted away from the mound after he had already made his professional debut, the 35-year-old was never going to fit into Arizona’s rebuilding plan despite becoming a fan favorite in the desert. Read the rest of this entry »
The offseason is beginning to wrap up, but there are still plenty of names still available to help boost the fringes of teams’ rosters, especially in depth relievers. Last week, Michael Fulmer became the latest of these signings, inking a one-year deal with the Cubs.
The bulk of Fulmer’s big league career has been spent in Detroit, where he won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2016. With a 3.06 ERA and 3.76 FIP in 159 innings, he looked to be the future ace of a Tigers rotation that had lost Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer a couple years earlier and would lose Justin Verlander the next season. But after two more seasons where he performed around league average and a 2019 campaign completely lost to Tommy John surgery, Fulmer went through a catastrophic 2020, with an ERA near nine and less than three innings per start. It seemed like his time as a productive big leaguer was over, and it was — as a starter. But he’s performed quite well over the past two years in the bullpen, posting career bests in ERA and strikeouts.
While Fulmer had above-average seasons as a starter, he had neither big-time swing-and-miss stuff nor pinpoint command, succeeding despite pedestrian numbers in the strikeout and walk departments. Instead, his best years were characterized by a solid ability to suppress hard contact and home runs, possibly aided by his cavernous home ballpark. He throws two fastball variants but has shown a slight preference for the sinker, which has allowed him to run a groundball rate that’s consistently a few points above the league average. Read the rest of this entry »
The free agent market skidded to a halt in February, with more than a week passing without a major league signing. Perhaps teams were waiting to settle arbitration cases, holding out for the 60-day IL, or simply playing free agency chicken with spring training right around the corner. Or maybe they’ve all been busy trying to wrap their heads around Chad Green’s contract so as to decide how it affected the market. Whatever the case may be, things finally started to pick up steam this past weekend.
Andrew Chafin came to terms with the Diamondbacks on Saturday afternoon, while Alex Reyes signed with the Dodgers shortly thereafter. Both contracts are one-year deals with incentives, and each comes with a team option for 2024. Chafin will make $5.5 million in 2023 with the potential to earn an additional $1 million in playing time bonuses. After that, the D-backs can pick up his $7.25 million option or pay him a $750,000 buyout. Reyes, meanwhile, will make a base salary of $1.1 million in 2023, while his team option is worth $3 million. Both years of the contract come with performance incentives that can push the total value up to $10 million.
Chafin is returning to the franchise where he spent the first decade of his professional career. In parts of seven big league seasons with Arizona, he tossed 271.2 innings with a 3.20 FIP, good for 4.0 WAR. No Diamondbacks reliever was more productive in that time. The D-backs flipped him to the Cubs at the 2020 trade deadline, and the Cubs subsequently flipped him to the Athletics the following year. Chafin signed with the Tigers after the lockout, and miraculously, he survived the 2022 trade deadline, leaving the team on his own terms this winter. Unfortunately, he may have come to regret that decision. Chafin declined a $6.5 million player option for 2023; his new deal guarantees him slightly less. Read the rest of this entry »
The 2022–23 offseason got off to a faster start than we’ve seen in years. For the first time in the (albeit short) history of the FanGraphs top 50 free agents list, our entire top ten was off the board by Christmas. In such a busy time, it was inevitable that certain transactions would fly under the radar. Few among us dwelled on Pierce Johnson’s deal with the Rockies after Carlos Correa (supposedly) came to terms with the Giants that same day, or Scott McGough’s deal with the Diamondbacks, which dropped mere hours before Carlos Rodón became a Yankee.
Two months ago, I doubt anyone was all that bothered FanGraphs overlooked those signings. But at the quietest point of the offseason, I want to give them their due. Read the rest of this entry »
The Blue Jays have been busy this offseason, acquiring Daulton Varsho, Chris Bassitt, and Erik Swanson. Now, they’ve added right-handed reliever Chad Green to the mix, one of the bigger names still on the market. While a full-strength Green is probably the best reliever in this free-agent class who didn’t sign a nine-figure extension to jumpstart the offseason, he was shut down after just 15 innings in 2022 and underwent Tommy John surgery in a contract year. Because his rehab will sideline him for the majority of the upcoming season, he was relegated to 41st on our Top 50 free agent list, with a median crowdsourced projection of just one year and $5 million. Our readers came pretty close on the AAV, but the number of years on his deal is still to be determined.
Let’s go over the complex details of this contract. Green will earn $2.25 million in 2023. At the conclusion of the season, the Blue Jays can pick up a three-year option that will keep him in Toronto through the end of 2026, paying out $9 million per season. Should they decline this team option, he has the option to tack on one more year to the deal worth $6.25 million, but if he’s not interested, the Jays get the chance to exercise yet another team option, this one for just two years and $21 million with some escalators based on playing time. In short, if the Blue Jays are satisfied with Green’s arm health, he could be wearing blue for four years, but if they’re not, he could test free agency again as soon as this November. He can guarantee himself $8.5 million over the next two seasons, provided he accepts the player option for 2024. The nested levels of team and player options are reminiscent of Julio Rodríguez’s mega-extension signed last August (although with fewer years and fewer zeroes on the total value), which Dan Szymborski dubbed “the most expensive Choose Your Own Adventure book ever.” Green’s deal doesn’t warrant that distinction, but it’s still one of the more complicated baseball contracts in recent memory.
Green debuted in the majors in 2016 as a starter with the Yankees, demonstrating his excellent strikeout stuff but surrendering 2.4 home runs per nine. ERA estimators like SIERA and xFIP correctly forecasted that the flyball luck would start going his way, but these improvements came alongside a change in role. The next season, he was moved to the bullpen, where he lowered his home run rate to acceptable levels and improved upon his elite strikeout rate, becoming possibly the best multi-inning reliever in the years since. That’s a tough claim to make, but I think I can defend it. To be a multi-inning weapon, you (obviously) have to pitch multiple innings per appearance, and in the past six seasons, no reliever has done that more than Green. Read the rest of this entry »
Zack Greinke will likely wind up in the Hall of Fame sooner rather than later, but it won’t be via the 2028 ballot. No sooner had I speculated about the (admittedly slim) possibility that he would join Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina on a top-heavy BBWAA slate five years from now than Kansas City radio station host Bob Fescoe reported that the 39-year-old righty would in fact return to the Royals for one more year, capitalizing on mutual interest that had been apparent since the start of free agency.
The exact terms of the contract have yet to be disclosed, but via MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, the deal includes a base salary in the $8–10 million range, plus performance bonuses. Greinke’s 2022 pact with the Royals guaranteed him $13 million, with another $2 million available via performance bonuses, though the exact innings thresholds and payouts were never publicly disclosed. The Royals had been active this month in freeing up space within their expected $85–90 million payroll, trading both Michael A. Taylor (to the Twins) and Adalberto Mondesi (to the Red Sox), freeing up about $7.5 million in guaranteed money and turning the page on two players from last year’s 65-win juggernaut.
It was just over 10 months ago that the Royals’ prodigal son returned to the team that drafted him in 2002 and stuck with him through thick and thin over the next eight years, the high point of which was in ’09, when he made the AL All-Star team and won the AL Cy Young Award. Traded to the Brewers in December 2010 for a four-player package that included Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar, Greinke spent the 2011–21 stretch passing through the hands of five teams. He signed two huge contracts, made five more All-Star teams, pitched in a couple of World Series, nearly won another Cy Young, and compiled a resumé fit for Cooperstown.
Back in Kansas City, the Greinke of 2022 was far removed from that heyday, but he pitched credibly. In 26 starts totaling 137 innings, he posted a 3.68 ERA and 4.03 FIP en route to 1.9 WAR; those last three figures all represented improvements upon his work in 2021 with the Astros. He did land on the injured list twice in 2022, first for a flexor strain in late May, costing him most of June, and then for forearm tightness in late August. Even so, he returned in September and posted a 1.91 ERA and 3.11 FIP, his best marks of any calendar month. Read the rest of this entry »
Back on January 5, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told members of the media that he was largely finished making moves. Two days later, he finalized a deal for Tigers closer Gregory Soto. On January 19, Dombrowski made a similar statement, claiming he wasn’t planning to add any more players ahead of spring training. Before the month was up, he flipped the switch again, signing infielder Josh Harrison to a one-year, $2 million contract. This is the latest example of what’s becoming a trend for Dombrowski: surprising the Philadelphia faithful with better players and bigger budgets than they were expecting.
A party pooper might tell you that signing Harrison isn’t on the same level as Dombrowski’s big surprise from last winter, when he inked Nick Castellanos and pushed the Phillies’ payroll over the luxury tax for the very first time. Then again, an even bigger party pooper might respond by pointing out that Harrison was worth 2.1 more WAR than Castellanos last season. The first party pooper could reply by citing Harrison’s mediocre Steamer projections for the upcoming year; the biggest party pooper of all would chime in to remind you that no amount of surprise free-agent signings will cancel student debt or slow down rising sea levels or make Dick Monfort stop talking. But I’m getting off topic now.
Signing Harrison isn’t a season-altering move, but it’s further proof the Phillies are willing to spend the necessary dollars to keep up in the NL East. A more optimistic fan might also see the symbolism of this signing, as Dombrowski continues to right the wrongs of the previous front office regime. The Phillies first signed Harrison to a minor league deal back in November 2019 but ultimately chose Neil Walker as their utility infielder instead. Harrison ended up playing 33 games for the Nationals that season with a 108 wRC+; Walker, on the other hand, played just 18 games in Philadelphia, posting a dismal 43 wRC+, getting DFA’d in September, and retiring not long after. The Phillies missed the postseason by one measly game that year, and it’s hard not to wonder if keeping the proper infielder would have made all the difference. Signing Harrison in 2023 doesn’t get the Phillies to the playoffs in 2020, but it closes the door on a frustrating front office decision from one of the most frustrating seasons in recent memory. But again, I digress. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s nearly February and the free agent pool is thinning out. Most of the big names have already flown off the board. By our projections, only five unsigned players forecast to amass at least 1 WAR in the upcoming season, only three of whom are position players. Most teams have already filled out their Opening Day starting lineups; now their focus shifts to improving the fringes of their 26-man roster, searching for a couple of additional wins or insurance in case of injuries. The Mariners and the A’s, two AL West teams with very different outlooks for 2023, each recently made such an addition, inking a veteran to bolster infield depth. Let’s take a look.
Formerly a bench infielder and designated pinch hitter for the Cubs (his league-leading 91 pinch hit appearances in 2018 has not been matched since), La Stella was traded to the Angels with two years of team control remaining for a prospect who never threw a pitch in Chicago’s system. In 2019, he maintained the contact skills and excellent plate discipline that made him a league-average hitter, but he improved in another facet of his game that was emblematic of the juiced ball era. That year, his fly ball rate, which had previously sat around the 20% mark, climbed to 25%; that, combined with a small increase in his pull rate, led to a power break out. Despite lacking traditional power indicators like barrels and a high maximum exit velocity, La Stella made the most of his aerial contact (and the favorable dimensions of Angels Stadium) to post a career-high .486 slugging percentage and hit home runs at a rate of 30 per 600 PA, an excellent mark even during the heightened offensive environment. His absolute refusal to swing and miss played a big part in this as well; his minuscule 8.7% strikeout rate gave him plenty of balls in play, many of which left the yard:
For the past five seasons, Brian Anderson has been one of the few steady presences on the Marlins. With a long list of big names leaving town semi-regularly, one of the only things fans in Miami could count on was seeing Anderson’s name every day somewhere in the middle of Don Mattingly’s lineup card. But after starting just 155 games over the past two seasons and suffering numerous injuries, Miami’s front office decided to let him go too, non-tendering him into free agency. And now he is taking his talents to Milwaukee, inking a one-year deal with the Brewers worth $3.5 million.
From 2018 to ’20, Anderson was a consistently above-average performer, with a 115 wRC+ and 7.3 WAR across 341 games. He did basically everything at a solid or better level: he drew his fair share of walks (and was plunked a non-insignificant number of times), his strikeouts weren’t a problem, and while his plus raw power didn’t fully actualize due to a high groundball rate and the unforgiving dimensions of his home ballpark, he still slugged 44 homers during that stretch. He basically defined what it meant to have 50 or 55 grades on every offensive skill, making him successful all around.
After an uneven 2021 season and a left shoulder injury that required offseason surgery, Anderson’s production seemed to rebound at the beginning of 2022. He missed most of June with a back issue but had a very solid 117 wRC+ through the All-Star break, right in line with his best seasons. But on July 23, Anderson dove for a ground ball and landed on his left shoulder — his third left shoulder injury in a little over a year, and one that landed him on the IL for three weeks. After returning, his numbers fell significantly below his career norms, as he slashed just .188/.276/.318 in 174 plate appearances the rest of the way. This prolonged slump dropped his season wRC+ to 90, setting a career low for the second consecutive year. Read the rest of this entry »
