The Nationals aren’t going to make the playoffs in 2023. They probably won’t even sniff .500; unsurprisingly, the team that traded Juan Soto along with everything that wasn’t nailed down this past season isn’t quite ready to compete for division titles. That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try to get better, though – when the next generation of Nationals stars reaches the majors, the team would prefer to have some major league pieces already in place, mirroring the vaunted Cubs and Astros rebuilds of the 2010s. To that end, the Nationals made a signing I absolutely love yesterday, snagging Jeimer Candelario on a one-year deal worth $5 million, with $1 million in incentives.

Before the 2022 season, no one would have believed you if you told them Candelario would be a free agent this winter. In 2020 and ’21, he hit a combined .278/.356/.458, good for a 125 wRC+. He backed that up with decent defense at third base; all told, he looked like a comfortably above-average player carried by his bat. Then came 2022, an abject disaster; over 124 injury-interrupted games, he hit .217/.272/.361 and saw pretty much every statistical indicator tick downwards. The Tigers chose to release him rather than go through arbitration, which MLB Trade Rumors estimated at roughly $7 million.

For the 2020 and ’21 versions of Candelario, that would be a bargain. Quite frankly, I still think it would make sense after his poor 2022 season. The Tigers didn’t share my assessment, valuing the combination of money and roster space as more important than retaining his services. I’m not quite sure I understand it – they currently have two open spots on their 40-man roster and no in-house third baseman – but their loss was Washington’s gain. Read the rest of this entry »

If the BABIP gods change their minds, the Red Sox are the first in line. Last week, they inked left-handed reliever Joely Rodríguez, formerly of the Mets, to an incentive-laden, one-year contract with a team option for 2024. If he pitches like his peripheral numbers indicate he can, the signing should prove fruitful for Boston.

Rodríguez will make a base salary of $1.5 million in 2023, with a chance to earn an additional $2.25 million in incentives. He’ll receive a $50,000 bonus if he pitches in 30 games and an extra $50,000 each for reaching the 40-, 50-, 60-, and 70-game plateaus. On top of that, he’ll earn a bigger bonus the longer he remains on the active roster — an extra $500,000 each for logging 30, 60, 90, and 120 days.

Barring a significant injury or complete meltdown, Rodríguez should easily reach 120 days of service time in 2023. In other words, that $2 million bonus is practically money in his pocket. On the other hand, the games-pitched incentive is less of a guarantee. Rodríguez pitched 50-plus games in both of the past two seasons but has yet to cross the 60-game threshold in his MLB career. He has gotten close, however, and 2023 could be the year it finally happens. With the Red Sox, not only will he find himself a little higher up on the bullpen depth chart, but there will also be more relief opportunities to go around, as Boston’s starting rotation is unlikely to pitch quite as deep into games as New York’s. All that to say, he can reasonably expect to earn the $50,000 bonus for pitching 30, 40, and 50 games, and he might pocket another $50,000 for reaching the 60-game plateau; 70 games still seems a little out of reach.

After the deal’s first year, the Red Sox have a team option for $4.25 million (with another $250,000 in games-pitched incentives). If they choose not to exercise the option, Rodríguez receives a $500,000 buyout. In short, the deal is for a minimum of one year and $2 million, with a maximum potential of two years and $8.25 million. Read the rest of this entry »

The White Sox dipped into the free-agent pool this week with their first significant move of the offseason, agreeing to terms with righty Mike Clevinger on a reported one-year, $12 million deal. For the soon-to-be-32 Clevinger, it represents an opportunity to reestablish himself as a reliable mid-rotation starter after struggling to do so with San Diego in his return from his second Tommy John surgery in 2022. For the White Sox, it means adding a relative unknown with some upside to a talented and extremely right-handed rotation featuring 2022 AL Cy Young finalist Dylan Cease, a pair of veterans in the possible last years of their contracts in Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito, and a 26-year-old Michael Kopech, who is trying to stay healthy for a full season himself after an early-career Tommy John surgery of his own.

The move comes as a bit of a surprise this early in the offseason, with much of the starting pitcher market yet to be sorted out. The reported $12 million value of the contract is a chunk of change higher than both our crowdsourcing and Ben Clemens predicted at $8 and $9 million, respectively. There’s a lot of starting pitching out there in November, including a handful of veterans coming off strong years that might be available for a one-year contract at or around $12 million. Corey Kluber contributed a productive season in Tampa this year, as did Michael Wacha in Boston, though he may require a second year of commitment. Andrew Heaney has generated enough buzz early that he might push that budget, but he’s available. Johnny Cueto was the second most valuable pitcher on these very same White Sox, with 2.4 WAR over 158.1 IP, but at age 36 would likely come at a similarly reasonable rate. So why did Chicago instead jump the market for Clevinger? Read the rest of this entry »

The Astros capped off a dominant postseason run with a World Series title that showed off a well-rounded and star-studded organization. They won with great starting pitching, great relief pitching, powerful hitting, and excellent defense. This wasn’t a case of a few guys getting hot and carrying a moribund offense, or a heroic member of the rotation piling up innings that no one counted on. The team stacked with good players up and down the roster simply deployed them as expected, and got a parade for its trouble.

It’s funny, in that context, to note that one of the best offenses in baseball had a clear hole at first base. Yuli Gurriel, the longtime incumbent at the position, had an abysmal year, compiling a .242/.288/.360 batting line that represented his second-worst performance in the majors (and his second poor showing in three years). The Astros scored runs at a gaudy clip despite his decline, but they didn’t bury their heads in the sand about Gurriel; they traded for Trey Mancini at the deadline to shore up their first-base options.

Bad news: Mancini wasn’t very good either. He and Gurriel combined to rack up -1.4 WAR with Houston. Yeesh. By the time the playoffs rolled around, the Astros were using unheralded rookie David Hensley as a right-handed DH in lieu of Mancini. It worked well enough to win, but it was a strange look for a team already punting on offense at catcher. Read the rest of this entry »

On Friday, the rebuilding Pirates took a $6.7 million flier on 36-year-old Carlos Santana, who at this point in his career splits his time between DH and first base. In Pittsburgh, he joins the recently acquired Ji-Man Choi and Lewin Díaz as 1B/DH options; regardless of a positional surplus, perhaps Pittsburgh felt he was too tempting to pass up with the shift ban going into effect next season. It’s hard to think of a player who has more to gain from that rule change than the switch-hitting former catcher, who is a pull hitter on grounders from both sides of the plate: 61.9% from the right side and 70.6% from the left.

As a switch-hitter, Santana sees most of his plate appearances as a lefty, his even more pull-happy side. That brings his overall pulled-grounder percentage up to 67.2%, a mark that puts him sixth among the 203 players with at least 1,000 grounders since his debut in 2010; the only active player ahead of him, Eugenio Suárez, has hit 1,100 fewer grounders in his career. Moving the threshold to 1,500 puts Santana squarely at the top of that list (inactive players included). Read the rest of this entry »

While Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo both officially rejected their qualifying offers on Tuesday, the Yankees retained the latter nonetheless. The team agreed to terms with the 33-year-old first baseman — New York’s second-best hitter this season, after the big guy — on a two-year, $40 million contract that contains a club option for a third year.

This is the second offseason in a row in which Rizzo and the Yankees have agreed upon a two-year deal, but the bells and whistles have changed. Acquired in a 2021 deadline trade with the Cubs, he re-signed with the Yankees once the lockout ended in March via a two-year, $32 million deal that guaranteed him $16 million each year and contained an opt-out after 2022, which he exercised following a very solid performance. This time around, he’s guaranteed $40 million, via $17 million salaries for this year and next plus a $6 million buyout on a $17 million club option for 2025.

Though Rizzo would have gotten a raise by merely accepting the $19.65 million qualifying offer, it didn’t hurt his cause that earlier this week, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that the Astros had identified him as their top target at first base. Yuli Gurriel has manned the spot for Houston for the past three years but is now a 38-year-old free agent coming off a sub-replacement level season (85 wRC+, -0.9 WAR). The thought of the world champions upgrading by taking a piece from the team they swept out of the ALCS probably didn’t sit well in the Bronx, particularly given a market where the top remaining alternative would have been 36-year-old righty José Abreu, a less optimal fit for the Yankees’ lineup. More on that below. Read the rest of this entry »

Can I let you in on a secret? I was already halfway through writing about Tyler Anderson when the news of him signing with the Angels broke because Anderson fascinates me. That article is more or less still in here. I also talk about how he fits into the Angels’ plans and how the contract comes into play at the end. It’s two reads for the price of one: one neat trick Anderson added in recent years, plus where he’ll pitch next season.

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Tyler Anderson wanted it all. Normally, you have to pick a lane as a pitcher. You can be an over-the-top fastball type, throwing four-seamers that are equally tough on opposing batters no matter their handedness. Or you might opt to be a sidearmer; that gives you a huge advantage against same-handed hitters, but allows opposite-handed hitters to see the ball cleanly and gain a huge edge. Generally speaking, relievers are more likely to throw sidearm. It’s not a hard-and-fast rule, but it makes sense. Starters have to navigate so many different hitters that they’re bound to face opposite-handed ones more often.

Anderson has always been a starter, and he always sported an over-the-top release point. If you picture a clock face, his four-seamer spins in the direction of 11:00; mostly straight up and down with a tiny bit of leftward tilt, as befitting a lefty with a high release point. As I said above, that means small platoon splits, and that was indeed the case. Anderson allowed the exact same wOBA to lefties and righties in his first five seasons in the majors. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m not sure if you know this about me, but there are two things that I’ve always loved to do. First, I like to make things about me, even if the connection is tenuous. Second, I like to go over my own past decisions and see if there’s anything I can learn from them, hopefully without being too self-serving. I have great news – well, for me at least. Two free agent signings last week – Robert Suarez to the Padres and Rafael Montero to the Astros – have given me an opportunity to do both.

Of course, I don’t want to give either player short shrift. Both are excellent in their own right, late-inning relievers coming off of effective 2022 seasons and high-leverage postseason work. Egotistical as I am, I can’t completely ignore them and only talk about myself. As a compromise, I’ll start by profiling each player and their new contract. From there, we’ll move on to discussing why neither was on my Top 50 Free Agents ranking, and what I think I did wrong in making the list. Read the rest of this entry »

Another solid pitcher has come off the free agent list on Thursday evening, as Clayton Kershaw is apparently close to a return to the Dodgers on a one-year contract. No financial terms have yet been revealed, but I would expect that the bottom-line figure is similar to the $17 million he made last year, or just a few million dollars more. The team didn’t extend him a qualifying offer, but that may reflect less on what the dollar figure is and more on the fact that he is Los Angeles’ longest-tenured player and a crucial part of the franchise’s history. Bouncing back from an elbow injury that ended his 2021 before the playoffs, Kershaw returned to his usual late-career form, with a 2.28 ERA and 2.57 FIP over 22 starts, good enough for 3.8 WAR and to make him the starting pitcher for the National League in the All-Star Game.

Kershaw has attained the service time and respect with the organization that he’s now one of those players who, as long as he wants to keep returning, can likely receive endless contracts, a status similar to that earned by players such as Adam Wainwright and David Ortiz in recent years. While he avoided a recurrence of the dreaded flexor tendon soreness from 2021, his ongoing back problems limited him to 126 1/3 innings, an expectation that seems likely to repeat going forward. Since leading the league with 232 2/3 innings in 2015, he has only been healthy enough to qualify for the ERA title twice in the last seven seasons. The bigger question wasn’t whether Kershaw would be back in Dodger blue but whether he would be back at all; the general consensus has been that he would either return to the Dodgers, go to his hometown Rangers, or retire.

ZiPS suggests a one-year, $17.6 million contract or a two-year, $31.8 million deal, so the projection is likely in the same zip code, if not the same neighborhood. Read the rest of this entry »

One of this winter’s top free agents crossed himself off the list over the weekend, as Edwin Díaz signed a five-year, $102 million contract to remain the Mets’ closer. Díaz was absolutely dominant this season, striking out nearly two batters an inning, resulting in a FIP under 1.00, and avoiding any of the walk or home run flurries that occasionally have marred his résumé. While I’m not particularly a fan of the save stat or the conclusions drawn as a result, him only blowing three saves in 2022 accurately reflects his dominance; he only allowed multiple runs in a single appearance all year, and all three of his blown saves occurred with one-run leads. The deal comes with a $12 million signing bonus, a team option at $20 million for a sixth season, a no-trade provision, and an opt-out after 2025.

Star closer Edwin Díaz and the New York Mets are in agreement on a five-year, $102 million contract, pending physical, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. There’s an opt-out and a full no-trade clause, plus a sixth-year option. The best closer in baseball stays in New York.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 6, 2022

Generally speaking, when a pitcher has a microscopic ERA, there’s some measure of luck involved; nobody’s long-term baseline expectation is an ERA of 1.31. So it naturally amuses me that Díaz arguably underperformed his peripherals this season. How often does a pitcher with an ERA that excellent actually have a FIP nearly half a run lower? Not very.

Going back to the start of 1901, there have been only 35 player-seasons in which a pitcher had an ERA under 2.00 and had a FIP lower than their ERA (out of 796 possible player-seasons). Only Gagne and Kimbrel had lower ERAs in seasons during which they failed to match their FIP; the average FIP for a pitcher with an ERA between 1.01 and 1.51 is 2.30. Read the rest of this entry »