When the National League adopted the designated hitter for good as part of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, the Mets figured to be among the Senior Circuit’s top beneficiaries given their stockpile of defensively limited hitters at corner positions. Within that group, Dominic Smith appeared most likely to take advantage of the extra spot in the lineup, whether he was the DH or played the field while someone else did, effectively giving him a do-over after a miserable, injury-marred 2021 season. It hasn’t worked out that way, however, so on Tuesday, the Mets optioned the struggling Smith to Triple-A Syracuse.

The 26-year-old Smith is hitting just .186/.287/.256 (67 wRC+) and has yet to homer through his first 101 plate appearances, a showing that’s a step down even from last year’s limp .244/.304/.363 (86 wRC+) line, which at least featured 10 home runs in 493 PA. That said, where Smith’s dreadful defensive work in left field (-3.8 UZR, -5 DRS, -9 OAA in just 859.2 innings) dragged last year’s WAR down to -1.0, this year he’s been kept out of the outfield, starting 14 games at first base — where he’s more or less an average defender by the metrics — and another eight at DH, leaving him at exactly 0.0 WAR on the year, so there’s that.

In a major league career that’s covered all or part of six seasons, Smith has rarely found middle ground. Chosen as the 11th overall pick out of a Gardena, California high school in 2013, he reached the majors four years later, but in 49 games that year and 56 in ’18, he hit just .210/.259/.406 (78 wRC+) in 332 PA, with 14 home runs but not much else. His conditioning was an issue — the six-foot first baseman reportedly weighed as much as 260 pounds, 21 above his currently-listed weight — and so was sleep apnea. Smith was diagnosed with the condition while at Double-A Binghamton in 2016 but had stopped sleeping with his CPAP mask after a year; he didn’t get enough rest and often struggled with his stamina and concentration.

After taking steps to address both issues, Smith was much improved in 2019, hitting a robust .282/.355/.525 (134 wRC+). However, he had two problems: first, 2016 second-round pick Pete Alonso, the team’s top prospect, won the first base job and hit 53 homers en route to All-Star and Rookie of the Year honors; and second, Smith suffered a stress reaction in his left foot and made just one plate appearance after July 27, a walk-off three-run homer against the Braves on September 29. That impressive line spanned just 197 PA; Alonso’s presence led to Smith starting just eight games at first plus 27 in left field while coming off the bench 54 times, 37 of those as a pinch-hitter.

The pandemic-shortened 2020 season brought the DH to the NL on a full-time basis, which opened up a path to everyday play for Smith. Starting 22 times at first base (17 with Alonso DHing), 21 in left field (eep), and five at DH — Robinson Canó made 13 starts there, J.D. Davis 12 — he thrived, hitting .316/.377/.616 with 10 homers. His slugging percentage and 166 wRC+ both placed fourth in the league. Finally, he was living up to his billing. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I discussed some of the young, pre-free agency players who teams should be trying to sign to long-term contract extensions. I hadn’t been planning for there to be a part two, but you guys had so many additional players you wanted to talk about, and I can’t remember the last time I got more DMs about a piece than that one — well, about a piece for which everyone isn’t mad at me, at least!

So, let’s oil up and turn the crank on the ol’ ZiPS-o-Matic and get this projection mill hopping for seven more players.

Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers: Eight years, $204 million

Buehler is currently in the second and final year of an extension with the Dodgers that pays him $4 million a year. His next deal will be a tad more pricey. Clayton Kershaw is still around in Dodger blue, but his injury history and mild decline resulted in 2021 being the year that Buehler became The Man in the rotation, reducing Kershaw to the role of deuteragonist. And while Los Angeles still has a rocking rotation, the depth isn’t quite what it was in recent years, so there should be more than slight concern that the franchise’s most valuable pitcher is unsigned. With Buehler two years from free agency, the Dodgers aren’t likely to get any massive discounts, but this is the best time to sign him if you don’t want to pay him Gerrit Cole money later. The Dodgers don’t necessarily have to stop at this figure, either; what’s the fun of being wealthy if you don’t use that cash to pay for cool things?

There may be some concern in some places about the dropoff in Buehler’s strikeout rate, but while strikeout rate changes do tend to stick very quickly, they stick far more when the underlying stats support the drop-off than when they don’t. In this case, the contact rates and swinging-strike rates haven’t worsened at all, nor has his velocity fallen off a cliff, suggesting that it’s a blip rather than a plunge. You can make a similar argument for the Dodgers signing Julio Urías to an extension, likely for a significantly lesser haul, but given the workload Buehler has shown he can handle, he’d be my priority. Read the rest of this entry »

Whether or not you’ve seen it, you likely know the premise of Freaky Friday. A mother and her daughter switch bodies in a great cosmic mixup, and hijinks ensue. Hello! Welcome to FanGraphs. I’m Ben Clemens, and today we’ll be covering classic teen cinema of the early 2000s (and mid-1970s), as personified by last night’s Giants-Mets game.

Tuesday night could have been just another day at the (beautiful, well-appointed) office for the Mets and Giants. After a comfortable win by New York in Monday’s series opener, the Giants returned the favor early in last night’s game. Chris Bassitt, the steadiest starter in a rotation buffeted by injuries, had his worst start of the year, surrendering eight earned runs in only 4.1 innings thanks to three homers, two by Joc Pederson. Logan Webb, meanwhile, cruised through five innings (six strikeouts, one walk, two runs), turning what was billed as a pitching duel into an 8-2 rout.

Teams don’t come back from six-run deficits. When Pederson launched his second homer, a two-run shot that pushed the score to 8-2, the Giants’ win expectancy climbed to 98.2%. Tune into 50 games, and you might see the trailing team pull one out. The Mets behaved accordingly; they brought in Stephen Nogosek, the last reliever in their bullpen, to eat some innings.

That’s the way the game could have ended – but let’s get back to Freaky Friday. In 2021, the Giants won these games, whichever side of the 8-2 score they were on. They were both excellent and a team of destiny, and you have to win plenty of tough ones to end the regular season with 107 wins.
Read the rest of this entry »

The Mets lost another starting pitcher on Thursday, as the team announced that the pain that forced Max Scherzer from his start Wednesday has been diagnosed as a moderate to high grade oblique sprain; the anticipated timetable for Scherzer’s return is six to eight weeks. After throwing a slider to Albert Pujols, Scherzer was in visible discomfort and quickly pulled the plug himself, sparing Buck Showalter the most dangerous part of a manager’s job: telling Max Scherzer to hit the showers:

The loss of Scherzer comes at a time the Mets are already down two other starting pitchers (three if you count Joey Lucchesi‘s loss to Tommy John surgery, which I’m not). Most notably, Jacob deGrom’s 2022 season has yet to begin due to a stress reaction in his right scapula. Tylor Megill is also currently on the IL due to biceps tendinitis diagnosed after the worst start of his professional career. Luckily, there’s reason to be hopeful in both cases. The most recent imaging of deGrom’s scapula indicated it is healing effectively, raising hopes that the ace’s return isn’t too far off. Meanwhile, Megill’s MRI didn’t reveal anything darker than a case of tendinitis, and he’s already scheduled to play catch today:

Jacob deGrom's MRI and CT scan revealed "considerable healing of the stress reaction on his scapula," Mets say.

He has been cleared to begin loading and strengthening his shoulder and will be "re-imaged in approximately three weeks."

— Deesha (@DeeshaThosar) April 26, 2022

Read the rest of this entry »

This season, Eric and Tess Taruskin will each have a minor league roundup post that runs during the week, with the earlier post recapping some of the weekend’s action. You can read previous installments of our prospect notes here.

Nick Loftin, CF, Kansas City Royals
Level & Affiliate: Double-A NW Arkansas Age: 23 Org Rank: TBD FV: 45
Weekend Line: 4-for-9, 2B, HR, SB

Notes
Loftin, who was drafted as a shortstop, was first listed as an outfielder on the Royals’ 2022 winter minicamp roster and has begun a transition to center field, playing there exclusively so far in 2022. It’s a logical move given the glut of middle infielders ahead of him in the org, and it’s worth noting that the Royals timed it so Loftin would have two seasons of play prior to his 40-man deadline day to make the move. While Loftin still needs some technical polish (for instance, he has a tendency to backpedal rather than turn his hips and run, and he doesn’t look comfortable with at-’em balls) and often looks like a recent conversion guy out there, his gap-to-gap range is very exciting, and he has the pure speed to be an above-average or better center field defender with reps.

Much more polished is Loftin’s bat. He’s extremely tough to beat with velocity and squares up fastballs with regularity, spraying them into both gaps. He keeps things incredibly simple at the plate, which is part of why he has made such consistent contact, but one can imagine him making more athletic use of his lower half and adding more power eventually. Loftin is also a very wiry, pretty skinny guy. He’s 23, so maybe the cement on his body is dry, but between his frame still having room for mass and his swing perhaps housing dormant power, there are a few potential avenues for him to add thump. Right now he profiles as a contact-oriented center fielder, a profile that’s currently pretty scarce across baseball. Myles Straw is a more extreme contemporary example. Read the rest of this entry »

Pitchers getting injured is never good news, even in a year in which pitching talent seems relatively easy to come by. Sadly, we got a bunch of high-profile names hitting the IL over the weekend, so here’s a quick Monday rundown in case you were doing something more fun on Sunday than stressing about injuries, like watching the baseball games (non-Giants fans, at least).

Tylor Megill, New York Mets

Given the monumental task of replacing Jacob deGrom in the Mets’ rotation at the start of the season, Megill took his job surprisingly literally, doing his best imitation of the team’s ace. Through six starts, his ERA stood at 2.43 with a nearly identical FIP at 2.44, improving significantly on his major league debut in 2021. Then came the worst start of his professional career — including the minors — as he surrendered eight runs and didn’t even make it through the second inning against the Nationals last Wednesday. Megill can’t point to bad luck either; it’s hard to complain too strenuously about BABIP when you have an xBA of .563 and an xSLG of 1.263.

On the plus side, Megill’s velocity wasn’t down during that disaster of a start, and he didn’t report any discomfort until after the game. One thing that struck me, however, is how much his horizontal release point has changed in a lateral direction throughout the season. From his first start to his last outing, Megill’s horizontal release point has shifted about five inches; those release points tend to be far more consistent in-season, as players are more likely to tinker with this in the winter and spring. Release point inconsistency is a concern, and at least one study that I’m familiar with has linked shifting lateral release points with an eventual need for Tommy John surgery, albeit with low odds (a roughly 5% higher chance of a UCL tear with every 10 centimeters of movement). That’s getting ahead of ourselves, but it’s something to file in the back of your mind.

The decision to put Megill on the IL was made after he experienced soreness during his bullpen on Saturday, with biceps tendinitis as the announced culprit. Colin Holderman got the immediate call-up to take Megill’s spot on the roster, though that may be short-lived, as David Peterson started on Friday. Trevor Williams will get Megill’s start on Monday night against the Cardinals.

In other Mets injury news — of course there’s more, it’s the Mets — catcher James McCann will be out six weeks due to a broken hamate bone. Patrick Mazeika was called up and likely endeared himself to Mets fans more than McCann has by hitting the go-ahead home run in the seventh on Saturday against the Mariners. McCann’s offense has disappeared so quickly over the last year-plus that there’s not likely to be any real consequence for the Mets other than a thinning of the depth chart.

Jesús Luzardo, Miami Marlins

Amid a promising comeback campaign, Luzardo took a step back last week, walking four and allowing four runs in 2.2 innings against the Diamondbacks, bloating his ERA to 4.03. Like Megill, there were no suspicious velocity dropoffs — something to watch for given Luzardo’s injury history — but he reported forearm soreness after the game. In “crossing our fingers” news, he did not believe the pain was similar to what he experienced before his first Tommy John surgery, back when he was a high schooler in 2016:

What Jesús Luzardo had to say about his left forearm strain. #Marlins pic.twitter.com/YAhoKsAXuv

— Christina De Nicola (@CDeNicola13) May 15, 2022

I just started feeling a little something in the San Diego game, towards the back end of it, but nothing when I was pitching or anything like that. It was more just a little soreness. I kind of backed off a little between my starts. There wasn’t really pain or anything, more like stiffness.

The Marlins held off until this weekend to place Luzardo on the IL, retroactive to his May 10 start, when it became evident that he would be unavailable. It seems that Cody Poteet, already stretched out a bit in relief of Luzardo against Arizona and not used since, will get the spot start on Tuesday, with Sandy Alcantara going on Monday.

As for replacing Luzardo long-term, it doesn’t appear as if the Marlins plan to recall top prospect Max Meyer to fill the spot. My reading of the tea leaves is that they’re not going to push Edward Cabrera up soon as a replacement either; while he’ll get another chance in the not-too-distant future, I think Saturday’s start against Triple-A Nashville would have been a few tune-up innings rather than a 90-pitch outing if a callup was imminent.

Short of any additional bad news, it’s entirely possible that, with two off days in the next week, Luzardo may only miss just the one start.

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Kershaw was a late scratch on Friday against the Phillies, pushing Walker Buehler’s start up a day on normal rest. Kershaw has a history of lower back pain and at least one instance (2012) of hip impingement, so the Dodgers are being careful with him. The culprit this time is inflammation of the SI joint, which, I believe, is the sacroiliac joint and not the Sports Illustrated joint; on the pelvis, it’s between the hip and the spine. As I did not attend Hollywood Upstairs Medical College, and my medical knowledge is primarily evaluating how sick I’ll feel if I eat some deliciously spicy food, let’s consult actual doctors here:

Biomechanically, the sacroiliac joint performs several functions. Primarily, its purpose is to attenuate the distribution of force loads from the lower extremities. It functions both as a shock absorber for the spine above and converts torque from the lower extremities into the rest of the body.

As pitching largely involves transfers of force between body parts, it’s understandable why the Dodgers see the need to be cautious. Last year was the first time Kershaw was placed on the IL with elbow issues, and given that it scared them enough to shut him down quickly for the postseason, this is not unexpected caution.

To replace Kershaw on the roster, the Dodgers called up Michael Grove, who got the start on Sunday and may get another down the road, though with a very quick hook. Andre Jackson looked like a rotation fallback option at the start of the season, but he’s failed to finish the third in each of his last three starts for Triple-A Oklahoma City, allowing 10 walks in just 3.1 innings.

This season, Eric and Tess Taruskin will each have a minor league roundup post that runs during the week, with the earlier post recapping some of the weekend’s action. You can read previous installments of our prospect notes here.

Darius Vines, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Level & Affiliate: Double-A Mississippi Age: 24 Org Rank: TBD FV: 35+
Weekend Line: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 11 K

Notes
Even though Vines had K’d a batter per inning leading up to it, his trademark changeup hadn’t been consistently plus this year until Sunday’s outing. It’s actually been Vines’ fastball, which has lift and carry through the strike zone, that has induced most of his swings and misses this year, even though he hasn’t had any kind of velo spike and is still sitting in the 89-92 mph range and topping out close to 94. A fringy, low-80s slurve rounds out a solid if unspectacular pitch mix that has been weaponized by Vines’ command. Fastball playability, a good changeup, and plenty of strikes drive spot starter projection here. Vines will likely enter the offseason on Atlanta’s 40-man bubble. Read the rest of this entry »

Tylor Megill got his no-hitter, after a fashion. After pitching the first five innings of a combined no-no in his previous start on April 29 against the Phillies — just the second no-hitter of any kind in the franchise’s 51-season history — the 26-year-old righty added another four consecutive hitless frames to his streak on Wednesday afternoon against the Braves before Adam Duvall’s fifth-inning single ended his streak. Megill and the Mets’ bullpen ended up faltering in the sixth inning, but the starter’s impressive run through the season’s first four weeks is a major reason why they own the National League’s best record thus far at 18–9 — all without the services of Jacob deGrom.

After a season in which deGrom didn’t throw a single competitive pitch in the second half due to what was eventually revealed to be a low-grade sprain of his ulnar collateral ligament, the Mets have been without his services so far due to a stress reaction in his right scapula. Last year’s loss of the two-time Cy Young winner played a significant part in sending the Mets’ season off the rails. They were 46–38 through July 7, the day of their ace’s final start, with a rotation ERA of 2.96, a FIP of 3.42, and a 4.5-game lead over the rest of the NL East field. From there, they went just 31–47 the rest of the way, with their starters pitching to a 4.93 ERA and 4.77 FIP, and finished 11.5 games out of first.

This year, it’s been a different story. Thanks in large part to Megill, free-agent addition Max Scherzer, trade acquisition Chris Bassitt, and a healthy Carlos Carrasco, Mets starters are currently ranked third in the NL in ERA (2.78), second in FIP (2.94), strikeout rate (26.8%), and strikeout-walk differential (20.2%), and first in innings (149) and WAR (3.2).

Though he was ultimately charged with three earned runs allowed in 5.1 innings after Adam Ottavino failed to bail him out of a bases-loaded jam, Megill was again impressive on Wednesday, as he’s been all season. He struck out a season-high nine batters, seven of them through a comparatively efficient four hitless innings, during which he used only 61 pitches; the only batters to reach during that span were Dansby Swanson in the third and Matt Olson in the fourth, both via walks. In doing so, he was the first Met to complete nine hitless innings since Matt Harvey on April 8 and 13, 2013, though deGrom did have a three-start stretch from June 11–21 of last season where he recorded 28 outs without yielding a hit.

Megill needed 22 pitches to get through a labor-intensive fifth inning, as Francisco Lindor committed an error on Travis d’Arnaud’s grounder before Duvall hit a clean single to left field. With two on and nobody out, he escaped on a Swanson fly ball and strikeouts of Guillermo Heredia and Ronald Acuña Jr. Even with that extra work, his 83 pitches through five was five fewer than he used during the combined no-hitter, during which he walked three and struck out five. Read the rest of this entry »

Forced to squeeze their roster down to a 26-man limit on Monday, the Mets decided to say goodbye to veteran second baseman Robinson Canó, designating him and the two years left on his contract for assignment. Canó, who will turn 40 this year, struggled greatly in 12 games in 2021, going 8-for-41 with just a single extra-base hit, a solo homer off of Zach Davies. While he could theoretically be claimed on waivers before being released, any team adding him by this route would commit to the $40 million still owed him through 2023, which is, let’s just say, unlikely to happen.

The decisions both to play Canó and to cut him this year were surprisingly easy. He did play very well the last time we saw him, in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, hitting .316/.352/.544 with 10 homers for a 142 wRC+ and 1.3 WAR in just 49 games. The problem is that the last time we saw him was 2020 thanks to a PED suspension that November, his second positive steroid test under MLB’s drug-testing regimen and one that cost him the entire ’21 campaign.

I wasn’t really worried about the suspension itself; I’ve spent the last decade trying to find some kind of discernible pattern, short- or long-term, of over- or under-performance for the group of players busted for PED use and have yet to find anything actually useful. But what did worry me was the missed time coming on the back of an artificially short season for a 39-year-old player playing a premium defensive position. While Canó was quite good in 2020, his 2019 season was by far his worst season in a long time.

While I think it made perfect sense for the Mets to open the season with Canó and see what he had left, there was no particular reason for them to give him a very long leash. Jeff McNeil is playing well, and the team should roll with him starting most games at second. And with the need to cut the roster from 28 to 26 players, who would have been a better idea to cut? Luis Guillorme has been a rock-solid role player during the last few years, and even if he were struggling, he’s the backup shortstop. Dominic Smith hasn’t had a great start, but he’s contributed more than Canó has. Optioning Tylor Megill or Drew Smith would have have been completely absurd.

Mets owner Steve Cohen certainly ought to know a sunk cost when he sees one, and there’s no psychological need to salvage the Canó trade, as it was something this régime inherited from the Wilpons and former general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, not a transaction that they masterminded. The Mets expect to contend this year and are in first place by three games, so this is a team that ought to be more interested in certainty rather than chasing the chance that Canó turns things around.

Is Canó done? I wouldn’t necessarily shovel that last bit of dirt onto his career quite that quickly. Neither ZiPS (.254/.298/.393) nor Steamer (.249/.298/.385) are all that optimistic, but the margin of error here is absolutely huge. For a team that’s actually desperate at second base or a lousy one that can afford to absorb such a risky player, there’s still an argument for Canó as an addition to the roster. It wouldn’t be preposterous for the White Sox, for example, to take a look given that the combination of Leury García and Josh Harrison has been positively dreadful at second.

Whether or not Canó bounces back to close out his 10-year, $216 million contract, there’s no denying that his career is coming to an end. And overall, it’s a sad one, particularly given the friendly rivalry between Canó and another of the great second basemen of that era: Dustin Pedroia. Which player was the better second baseman was a hotly debated topic a decade ago and a fun part of the usual Red Sox-Yankees rivalry. While I don’t want to name any names, a couple of huge fans I know on Twitter spent a long time arguing that question, frequently roping me in the conversation to settle a particular aspect of the argument.

It would have been crazy to say in 2012, but I assume now that neither will make the Hall of Fame. Knee injuries basically ended Pedroia’s career at age 33, and his counting numbers are likely too light for him to get 75% of Hall voters on his side. Canó’s numbers are closer, but he’s unlikely to reach 3,000 hits. More importantly, if the first PED suspension didn’t slam the door shut in Cooperstown, the second one certainly did. While I intend to check Canó’s box someday, I’m confident I’m in the minority.

Is Robinson Canó done? Maybe, maybe not. The Mets rightly decided that they didn’t want to be the ones who needed to find out the answer to that question.

This season, Eric and Tess Taruskin will each have a minor league roundup post that runs during the week, with the earlier post recapping some of the weekend’s action. You can read previous installments of our prospect notes here.

Calvin Ziegler, RHP, New York Mets
Level & Affiliate: Low-A St. Lucie Age: 19 Org Rank: TBD FV: 40
Weekend Line: 4.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K

Notes
Ziegler was generating enough buzz during minor league spring training that a scout in Arizona mentioned his name to me totally unprompted, as a heads up that he might be breaking out. A Canadian high schooler in the Toronto area, Ziegler was in a bind ahead of the 2021 draft because travel restrictions were going to make it hard for him to be seen by scouts. He transferred to TNXL Academy, an athletics “school” in Florida, for his pre-draft spring. The Mets made him their second round pick and signed him for just over $900,000, then shut him down during the regular season.

He’s come out hot to start 2022, at least from a bat-missing standpoint, with last Friday’s outing his most efficient from a strike-throwing standpoint. Ziegler’s stuff isn’t appreciably different than when he was in high school, though he is mixing in his secondary stuff more heavily. He used his fastball over 75% of the time on the summer showcase circuit, but his usage has been closer to 50% so far this year. Both Ziegler’s trademark breaking ball and his mid-80s changeup show bat-missing potential, though the former has much more consistent finish. While Ziegler doesn’t have the prototypical pitching prospect’s frame at a fairly mature six feet tall, his delivery is very athletic, with the power and balance he shows in his lower half and the flexibility of his upper back generating optimism that he might yet throw harder than his current 91-96 mph range. Ziegler’s “lack” of height and the way he gets deep into his legs during his delivery give his fastball a tough-to-hit line. Changeup and overall command refinement are all that stand between Ziegler and pretty comfortable projection into a rotation. Read the rest of this entry »