Max Scherzer has had a Hall of Fame-quality career. Now with the Toronto Blue Jays, the 40-year-old right-hander has accumulated 73.0 WAR to go with 216 wins and a 133 ERA+ across his 18 big league seasons. Moreover, his 3,408 strikeouts rank 11th all time, and his résumé also includes three Cy Young Awards, eight All-Star selections, and a pair of World Series rings. Writing about his Cooperstown chances last summer, my esteemed colleague Jay Jaffe called Scherzer “a lock for election.”
Let’s turn the clock back to 2007, when Scherzer made his professional debut that summer a full year after he was drafted 11th overall by the Arizona Diamondbacks out of the University of Missouri. The following spring, Scherzer was ranked fourth in the D-backs system when Baseball America’s 2008 Prospect Handbook was published. Rankings and in-depth scouting reports weren’t yet a thing here at FanGraphs.
What did Scherzer’s 2008 Baseball America scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what BA’s Will Lingo wrote and asked Scherzer to respond to it.
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“The 11th overall pick in 2006, Scherzer pitched for the independent Fort Worth Cats and held out before he would have reentered the draft pool.”
“That’s right,” replied Scherzer. “Now that you think about it, the rules have changed since then, but when I got drafted by the Diamondbacks… actually, let’s go back to pre-draft. That season, my junior year, I slammed a door on my finger. I tried to pitch through it and developed biceps tendonitis. That scared off a lot of teams.
“I came back at the end of the year and pitched well, so I went into the draft saying that I was still looking for a top-college-pitcher contract. That was when you could still sign major league contracts out of the draft, and it’s what I told teams I was looking for. Arizona drafted me under those pretenses, but then tried to tell me I was hurt. I was like, ‘You guys literally just saw me at the Big 12 tournament. Everything is back. I’m good.’ I let them know that I wasn’t going to take 11th-pick slot; I was looking for a major league contract, which is what the top college pitchers in the past few years had gotten. Read the rest of this entry »
Randal Grichuk was ranked seventh when our 2015 St. Louis Cardinals Top Prospects list was published in March of that year. Acquired by the NL Central club in trade 16 months earlier, the then-22-year-old outfielder had been drafted 24th overall by the Los Angeles Angels out of a Rosenberg, Texas high school in 2009. The selection is a well-known part of his story. Grichuk was the first of back-to-back Angels’ picks that summer, the second being Mike Trout.
Grichuk has gone on to have a good career. Now in his 13th major league season, and his second with the Arizona Diamondbacks, the right-handed-hitting slugger has propelled 203 home runs while logging a 102 wRC+. Moreover, none of the 23 players drafted in front of him (in what was admittedly a pitcher-heavy first round) have homered as many times, nor have they recorded as many hits. AJ Pollock is the only position player with a higher WAR.
What did Grichuk’s 2015 scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think of it a full decade later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what our then-lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel wrote, and asked Grichuk to respond to it.
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“Grichuk was the Angels first rounder that they took one pick ahead of Mike Trout in 2009, though Grichuk has turned into a solid prospect in his own right.”
“That’s accurate,” replied Grichuk. “I was taken one pick before Trout, and I played well enough in the minor leagues to be looked at as a prospect.”
Erick Fedde returned stateside in 2024 and had a career-best major league season. One year after going 20-6 with a 2.00 ERA for the KBO’s NC Dinos, the 32-year-old right-hander logged a 3.30 ERA and a 3.86 FIP over 31 starts between the Chicago White Sox and the St. Louis Cardinals. His previous big league campaigns had been relatively rocky. From 2017-2022, Fedde fashioned a 5.41 ERA and a 5.17 FIP with the Washington Nationals.
Fedde, whom St. Louis acquired at last summer’s trade deadline as part of an eight-player, three-team swap, entered professional baseball with high expectations. He was drafted 18th overall in 2014 despite having undergone Tommy John surgery during his junior season at the University of Nevada Las Vegas. When our 2017 Washington Nationals Top Prospects list was published in March of that year, Fedde was ranked third in the system, behind Victor Robles and Juan Soto.
What did Fedde’s 2017 scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen wrote, and asked Fedde to respond to it.
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“As a junior at UNLV, Fedde was a potential top-10 pick until he blew out in May.”
“Pretty accurate,” Fedde said. “Going into my junior year, I was projected to go at the end of the first round, and just kind of kept climbing as the year went. Unfortunately, I was hurt just before the draft. I think I had TJ two days prior. But it all worked out. I was still able to go in the first round, which was really cool.
“Jeff Hoffman, who was drafted [ninth overall] by the Blue Jays, was kind of the big right-hander ahead of me. He blew out earlier in the year. I think he was kind of up there with me and Aaron Nola at one point. We were looking at possibly top 10, although I don’t know if there was a specific team.”
“Fedde’s fastball mostly sits 90-94 and will touch 96 with a bit of sink and run.”
“I’d say that’s pretty spot on,” Fedde replied. “I didn’t really start throwing hard until that sophomore-to-junior summer; that’s when I started getting up there. I was a consistent 92-93, but the big thing I remember was that I would hold velocity, if not gain it, as the game went on. That’s something I think scouts enjoyed.”
“Fedde’s out pitch is a slider, mostly 81-84 mph, that flashes plus but can get slurvy and lose bite when he doesn’t get on top of it.”
“Yeah, 100%,” he acknowledged. “I think I was throwing a sweeper before I knew what a sweeper was. A couple of years ago that became the total rave — it became the belle of the ball in the sense of pitching — and it’s kind of what I threw. At that time we would call it slurvy, but in today’s world it’s a sweeper.”
“His arm slot can get slingy and low, making it hard for him to drive the ball down.”
“I mean, at that point my life all I did was throw the ball down in the zone,” Fedde countered. “At least mentally, that’s what I was trying to do.”
“Not all scouts are enamored of Fedde’s delivery. His lower half is frail, often unbalanced, and at times plays no role in his delivery at all.”
“I was a thin guy,” recalled Fedde, who now stands 6-foot-4 and weighs 205 pounds. “I think I left for the draft at like 175 pounds. So, I guess I probably relied on whip and quickness instead of strength. I don’t know. Maybe that came into the idea of my having a lack of leg use.”
“If Fedde can improve his currently fringy, mid-80s changeup, he’ll have a viable three-pitch mix and above-average command of it.”
“Yeah, I feel like I’ve always been pretty good with command,” he said. “It’s something that I’ve leaned on throughout my career. The changeup really stunk all the way up until a couple of years ago. So that’s very true. I finally feel like I have a decent changeup. And then, as I got into pro baseball, I learned a cutter to add to my mix. Now it’s a four-pitch mix.”
“He projects as a sinker/slider mid-rotation arm.”
“I think it’s been kind of east-to-west that way,” Fedde said. “I’ve been in the middle of rotations. I definitely would never say that I’ve been a number one. But yeah, just keep growing and hopefully push to the top end of rotations. Last season was my best so far, for sure. I had a lot of struggles early, a lot of learning. But like [the scouting report] said, if I can get a good changeup… I mean, I think the changeup really changed my career.”
Matthew Boyd has exceeded most outside expectations. Selected in the sixth round of the 2013 draft out of Oregon State University, the 34-year-old southpaw was ranked 29th when our 2015 Toronto Blue Jays Top Prospects list was published that March. He’d pitched well the previous year — a 3.17 ERA between High-A and Double-A — but as our then-lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel wrote, “Some scouts still think there isn’t enough here to stick as a starter.” Given Boyd’s relatively short track record of success, the skepticism was understandable.
The left-hander’s own expectations were loftier, and he wasted little time in proving his doubters wrong. Boyd made his major league debut three months later, and not only did he do so as a starter, he’s gone on to make 170 of his 184 career appearances in that role. Now in his 11th big league season, and his first with the Chicago Cubs, Boyd has never been front-of-the-rotation good — his career ERA and FIP are 4.79 and 4.56 respectively — but he’s been effective when healthy. The problem is that Boyd often hasn’t been healthy; over the past four years alone, he’s missed 390 days of the season due to injury. It’s early, of course, but so far in 2025, Boyd has been both healthy and effective. Across his two starts, he’s thrown 11 scoreless innings.
What did Boyd’s 2015 scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think of it a full decade later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what McDaniel wrote and asked Boyd to respond to it.
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“Boyd was a senior sign out of Oregon State in 2013 that got $75,000 in the 6th round after making real progress in his last amateur year.”Read the rest of this entry »
Matthew Liberatore was ranked eighth in one of the game’s top-rated farm systems when our 2019 Tampa Bay Rays Top Prospects list was released that January. Drafted 16th overall the previous summer out of Glendale, Arizona’s Mountain Ridge High School, the now 25-year-old southpaw was assigned a 50 FV by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel. Twelve months later, Liberatore was no. 3 — still with a 50 FV — on our 2020 St. Louis Cardinals Top Prospects list, which was published a week after Liberatore was traded to the NL Central club in a multi-player deal that included Randy Arozarena.
What did Liberatore’s 2019 and 2020 scouting reports look like? Moreover, what does he think of them all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what Eric and Kiley wrote and asked Liberatore to respond to it.
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January 2019:
“He was arguably the best high school pitcher in the class, evaluated heavily early on by the Giants (who picked second), before settling into the 7-13 range by June.”
“That’s pretty cool,” Liberatore replied. “I was highly scouted in my senior year — I think I had over 100 scouts at my first start — so I wouldn’t say it was one team in particular. I knew that I was going to be scouted through the first round, but there wasn’t necessarily any indication, right up until the draft, as to who was going to take me.”
“When [Kyler] Murray was selected, teams picking behind Oakland suddenly had access to one more player than they had anticipated… Other teams hadn’t considered the possibility that Libby would fall to them and either hadn’t done a lot of background work, or weren’t comfortable with how he might alter their bonus pool math.”
“I definitely thought the A’s were a possibility, and I was also told the Pirates were a possibility,” Liberatore recalled. “A couple minutes before the pick, we got a phone call saying [the A’s] chose to go another direction. I found out it was Kyler Murray. I figured he was probably going to go in the first round of the NFL draft in a couple of months, so I was definitely surprised by that. But I grew up going to Tampa every summer to visit family, and had been to plenty of Tampa Bay Rays games throughout my life, so to end up going to them at 16 ended up working out pretty well for me.”
“When Liberatore was at his best, he’d throw strikes with 93-97 for the first several innings of his starts, show you a 70 curveball, a good change, and alter the timing of his delivery to toy with hitters.”
“Pretty similar to now,” Liberatore opined. “I don’t necessarily quick pitch or do the hesitation to alter the hitter’s timing as much anymore, but that’s definitely not something that I’m crossing off the list. So, pretty similar scouting report to how I pitch now.”
“At other times, he’d sit 88-92 with scattershot command and get too cute with Johnny Cueto shenanigans.”
“Hmm. I mean, I’m not going to agree with that, necessarily,” Liberatore said. “You have days where you feel really good and go out there with your best stuff, and then you have days where you don’t feel so good and have to find other ways to get hitters out. If you look at my numbers in high school, I did a pretty good job of doing that. So, I wouldn’t say I got too cute with anything.”
Asked if he could directly address the Cueto comp — the way the veteran hurler will sometimes shimmy and turn before delivering a pitch — Liberatore said it was all about disrupting timing.
“Why do guys throw a breaking ball or a changeup?” he replied. “It’s all about altering timing, and that’s another way to do that. Some scouts didn’t like it. I had a guy come into my house and tell me to quit doing that. But if it gets outs it gets outs, and Johnny Cueto was doing it at the highest level of the game. And there are other guys that do the same thing. I don’t think that it ever hurt me at all.
“I actually used it as a reset a lot of times. If my regular delivery wasn’t working, I could go to one of those and find the right feel to lock me back in, sync me back up. I never viewed it as trying to trick the hitter outside of it being no different than throwing a changeup or a breaking ball to throw off the hitter’s timing. I mean, I’ve definitely toned it down since then. I do it rarely, but like I said before, it’s certainly not something I’m going to get away from forever.”
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January 2020:
“Because Liberatore’s fastball has sinker movement, the growth of this changeup is going to be the most important aspect of his development, since those two pitches have similar movement and will theoretically tunnel better.”
“I throw two different fastballs,” Liberatore said. “One of them has sinker movement, and one of them is a little more hoppy. I think the development of the cutter has been bigger than the development of the changeup for me. Being able to own the inner half of the plate is something that has helped me quite a bit.
“I’ve thrown both my whole life. The two-seam, if you look at it in a vacuum, is a pretty average analytical pitch. But it plays off the rest of my arsenal. It doesn’t sink, but it runs into left-handers so I’m able to show them a slight difference in shape without having to change the velocity.”
“His knockout curveball has all-world depth… it’s the type of pitch that’s hard to hit even if you know it’s coming, but it might be easy to lay off of in the dirt, because its Loch Ness hump is easy to identify out of the hand.”
“Yeah. I think it all depends on how you use your other stuff around it,” Liberatore said. “If you throw any pitch every single time, it’s going to be easier to pick up. That’s why I’ve always kept that four-seam fastball, to be able to show guys something up in the zone, to tunnel off of that curveball. Yeah, it can be easy to lay off at times, but if I start landing it for a strike you have to honor it. I think it can definitely be a knockout pitch for me.”
“The total package should result in an above-average big league starter.”
Ian Happ’s defensive future was unclear when the Chicago Cubs made him a first-round pick in the 2015 draft. The sweet-swinging switch-hitter was selected as an outfielder, but he’d also played multiple infield positions during his three years at the University of Cincinnati. That uncertainty — fueled more by versatility than any serious shortcomings with the glove — remained when he was rated the Cubs’ no. 2 prospect in January 2017. While Eric Longenhagen opined that Happ’s most expedient path to the big leagues was as a left fielder, he nonetheless had him on our list as a second baseman. Either way, Happ’s calling card was going to be his bat. As our lead prospect analyst stated, “It profiles wherever he ends up playing.”
What did Happ’s 2017 scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what Eric wrote and asked Happ to respond to it.
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“The Cubs drafted him ninth overall in a draft chock full of good college hitters up top despite questions about his ultimate defensive home.”
“There definitely were questions about my defensive home,” Happ said. “I’ve played seven positions in the big leagues, so while I ended up finding a home [in left field], I think it was an asset for me to be able to play a bunch of different spots — especially on those early teams with how many good players we had.
“We needed versatility in that group. We had Addison [Russell] playing shortstop. We had Javy [Báez], [Ben] Zobrist, Tommy La Stella, and myself at second. Kris Bryant was at third and [Anthony] Rizzo at first. In the outfield, we had [Kyle] Schwarber, [Albert] Almora, Jason Heyward, Jon Jay, Zobrist, and myself. We didn’t have a bunch of set positions, so to get in the lineup you had to hit, and you had to be versatile. That’s the way Joe Maddon ran teams over there. Had I been a one-position guy, I don’t know how much I would have played in the big leagues.”
“He’s an above-average straight-line runner with decent range and an above-average arm, but his actions and athleticism are not optimal for the infield.”Read the rest of this entry »
Matt Chapman came in at no. 3 when our 2015 Oakland Athletics Top Prospects list was published in February of that year. Assigned a 45 FV by our then lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel, Chapman had been drafted 25th overall out of Cal State-Fullerton the previous summer. Playing most of his initial professional season in the Low-A Midwest League, the 21-year-old third baseman swatted five home runs and put up a modest .672 OPS over 202 plate appearances.
What did Chapman’s 2015 scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what McDaniel (now with ESPN) wrote and asked Chapman to respond to it.
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“A standout hitter and pitcher for Fullerton that didn’t have much first-round buzz for reasons I didn’t understand.”
“He was thinking like I do,” Chapman replied. “I thought I was a little underrated. Obviously, the A’s took a chance on me and it all worked out. But that’s funny, because I thought I had all the tools. I just wasn’t getting the love.”
“Chapman, has an 80 arm and has been into the high 90s on the mound, but is mostly an arm-strength guy with a short track record of pitching.”Read the rest of this entry »
Dylan Cease was 21 years old and coming off of his first full professional season when Eric Longenhagen evaluated him for our Chicago Cubs Top Prospect list in January 2017. Cease was then ranked seventh in the system, with Eric assigning him a 45 FV and suggesting that he was more likely a reliever than a starter down the road. Cease has obviously followed a more successful path. Now 29 and about to begin his seventh big league season, and second with the San Diego Padres, the right-hander has been a top-shelf starter for four years running. Over that span he has toed the rubber 130 times — no pitcher has started more games — and logged a 3.52 ERA and a 3.32 FIP. Twice he’s finished top four in the Cy Young Award voting.
What did Cease’s 2017 FanGraphs scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what Eric wrote and asked Cease to respond to it.
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“Cease has done an admirable job at quelling what was once a violent head whack while still retaining the kind of velocity that made him an exciting prep prospect.”
“That sounds kind of like an old-school baseball thing,” Cease responded. “But… I don’t know. Maybe that was a thing? I know that I had a very long arm stroke. I’d have to see video, but I don’t recall it being like crazy violent. Usually, if you’re a starter you’re not too violent. Maybe it was, but my having very long arm action was the most memorable thing.”
“He was also flashing a plus curveball in the 79-81 mph range during instructs, but the pitch is more consistently average and, at times, below when it featured an easily identifiable, shapely hump out of his hand.”
“It’s funny, because there was no Trackman data,” Cease said. “If it was today, it would be like, ‘It’s moving at 15 or 18,’ or whatever. But yeah, while my curveball is pretty good, it’s never been my biggest swing-and-miss [pitch] or anything like that. So I would say that was probably fairly accurate; it did pop out sometimes. I actually don’t [throw a curveball] as much anymore.”
“There are several concerns about Cease, ranging from his size to his command to a lack of a third pitch; he has very little changeup feel right now.”
“That’s never changed, the changeup part of it,” Cease agreed. “I’ve never really been a plus-command pitcher either. I have my spurts, but for the most part it’s just getting my good stuff in the strike zone. I’ve also never been the biggest, but here we are.”
“Cease actually pitches with a good bit of plane when he’s working down, because of his vertical arm slot.”
“That sounds right,” he replied. “My slot is the same now, but with shorter arm action. I feel like that changed in my first or second year in the big leagues. It just happened. I was working on my lower half, and for whatever reason it just kind of played out that way.”
“His fastball has enough life to miss bats up in the zone when he’s missing his spots.”
“I think that’s just saying when I’m throwing heaters up in the zone, even if they’re out of the zone, sometimes I get the swings and misses,” Cease reasoned. “Basically it’s got good life. As for [the part about missing spots], honestly, I think I was just trying to throw it over; I was just trying to get it in the zone.”
“I’ve gotten a Yordano Ventura comp on Cease — undersized, hard-throwing righty with good curveball feel.”
“That’s pretty good,” Cease said with a nod of the head. “I mean, Yordano threw a little bit harder than me, but we both had lively arms.”
“He projects as a potential mid-rotation arm if the changeup and command improve, but he’s more likely to wind up in relief.”
“I do remember seeing that a lot as a young player, the bullpen aspect,” Cease recalled. “But yeah, pretty much it was, am I going to develop a third pitch, or get one or two pitches that are swing-and-miss, that can buy me multiple times through the order? I added a slider, which I didn’t have at that point. So I added my best pitch. I always had the velo, and if you have two good pitches you can kind of sprinkle in everything else and have them essentially play off each other. That’s worked out for me.”
Jeff Hoffman is a different pitcher than the one who was drafted ninth overall by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2014. The 32-year-old right-hander has changed organizations multiple times, most recently moving from the Phillies back to his original team on a three-year, $33 million contract he signed in January. He earned that deal following back-to-back years in which he came into his own on the mound. Since being signed off the scrap heap by Philadelphia prior to the 2023 season, Hoffman has made 122 relief appearances and logged a 2.28 ERA, a 2.58 FIP, and a 33.4% strikeout rate over 118 2/3 innings. Before his breakthrough, he’d appeared in 134 games with a 5.68 ERA and a 5.34 FIP over 348 1/3 innings from 2016-2022.
Expectations were high when he entered pro ball. A potential first overall pick before injuring his elbow during his draft season at East Carolina University, Hoffman ranked second on our 2015 Blue Jays Top Prospects list despite having undergone Tommy John surgery the previous summer.
What did his FanGraphs scouting report look like at that time? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Curious to find out, I shared some of what our then-lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel wrote back in 2015 and asked Hoffman to respond to it.
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“He broke out in the summer before the draft on the Cape, flashing an 80 fastball and 65 or 70 curveball from an athletic delivery, projectable frame and shockingly good feel to pitch given the power stuff.Read the rest of this entry »
Cody Bellinger enters the 2025 season as the starting center fielder of the New York Yankees, after they acquired him from the Chicago Cubs over the offseason in a trade that was essentially a salary dump. A former MVP and Gold Glove winner who spent two seasons in Chicago after six with the Dodgers, Bellinger is coming off a 2024 campaign that saw him swat 18 home runs, log a 109 wRC+, and put up 2.2 WAR in 130 games.
In November 2016, Bellinger was a 21-year-old first baseman who’d spent the lion’s share of that year raking in Double-A. The Scottsdale native ranked second on our Dodgers Top Prospects list, which was published that month.
What did his FanGraphs scouting report look like at that time? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Curious to find out, I shared some of what Eric Longenhagen wrote back in 2016 and asked Bellinger to respond to it. Read the rest of this entry »
