If you google “Brendan Rodgers,” the first several results are for Leicester City’s soccer coach, who has been managing Premier League teams since 2008. Baseball’s Brendan Rodgers has been known to scouts for about that long, and has been hitting the entire time. Even as an underclassman, Rodgers was often the best player on the field at well-attended showcase events; when he was a high school junior, scouts thought that if you were to drop him in the draft a year early, he’d still go somewhere in the first round. By his pre-draft summer, Rodgers clearly had the best hit and power combination among his peers, and looked likely to stay on the middle infield. He was the early favorite to go first overall in 2015 until Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, and Andrew Benintendi took a leap the following spring, allowing the Rockies to get him third overall.

One axiom to which we try to adhere is “good hitters hit all the time” and that is indeed what Rodgers has done for the last eight years. He’s a career .293/.348/.491 hitter in the minors, and while most of Colorado’s affiliates play in hitter-friendly parks — this fact has masked some of Rodgers’ mediocre pitch recognition — we anticipate he’ll continue to be a plus hitter in the big leagues. His initial major league trial — a rough 25-game jaunt in the early summer — was not especially encouraging. Rodgers hit .224, swung and missed twice as often as he had in Triple-A (8% swinging strike rate in the minors, 15% in the majors), and generally appeared overwhelmed. But an 80 plate appearance sample doesn’t usurp Rodgers’ lengthy track record of hitting. In November, Rodgers told the Denver Post that he had been dealing with “nagging” shoulder issues since 2018 before deciding to have labrum surgery in June of 2019. As of mid-November, he had yet to begin throwing and hitting. Because he’s only a fringe runner and athlete, Rodgers’ conditioning during rehab is pretty important. A heavy, lumbering Rodgers who needs to play third base is swimming upstream against a 105 wRC+ at the position, while a Rodgers capable of playing second has a 94 wRC+ bar to clear.

Whether Rolison’s 2019 ascent was the result of real improvement or simply washed away our recency bias is immaterial. As a draft-eligible sophomore, he came out of the chute blazing hot and had top-10 pick buzz for the first month of the season before his year descended into chaos. He became wild and predictable, and yes, you read that right. Rolison couldn’t throw strikes with his fastball and leaned heavily on his curveball, which opposing hitters anticipated and crushed. It led to some bad outings, including one at South Carolina where he allowed 11 runs.

But 2019 was different. Rolison not only threw a greater percentage of strikes (65%) but he located his four-seam fastball where it plays best — at the top of the zone. After holding his college velo early in the year, it dipped late in the season but still competes for swings and misses because of its ride. There’s also more coherent pitch usage and a better pitch mix now; Rolison has a two-seamer, threw more changeups last year, and was just generally more mechanically consistent. He still throws across his body a bit and it can be hard for him to locate his breaking ball to his glove side, but the raw material for a lefty with three above-average pitches and starter control/command is clearly here and coming fast, so this is a back of the 50 FV tier prospect.

A 2019 swing change — what was an open stance with a leg kick has now been closed off and features none — awakened some of the big, dormant raw power that made Vilade such an enticing amateur prospect. He simply could not time his previous cut and was late on many pitches, pushing them the other way or into the ground. The tweak brought his groundball rate closer to average (50% previously, down to 42% in 2019) and more than doubled his home run output from the prior year.

It’s necessary progress for a player who began a long-anticipated fall down the defensive spectrum, and will likely continue to do so. Vilade began seeing time at third base in 2019, and was taking reps in the outfield during the Rockies’ fall workouts. He looked noticeably bigger and stronger on the Salt River backfields than he did during the summer, and we now anticipate Vilade will branch out and play both outfield and infield corners, which makes sense considering how entrenched Nolan Arenado is at third base. Is the tumble troubling? Somewhat, but it’s counterbalanced by versatility, and it’s encouraging that Vilade has now shown an ability to make relevant swing adjustments to get to his power. This is a rather magmatic prospect currently transitioning in several ways, but they’re generally positive.

Toglia had a poor Cape statline and then came out of the gate very slowly during his junior year. He was hitting .207 when PAC-12 play began and his draft stock had taken a plunge but for whatever reason, he started raking during conference play. By the end of the year, he was hitting .315 and had reached base in 29 straight games. Toglia has a rare combination of traits and skills. He’s a switch-hitting first baseman with power who is also a plus defender, which puts him in a small, 21st century team picture with Lance Berkman, Mark Teixeira, and Carlos Santana. That’s an intriguing group. We think teams hopped off of Toglia too quickly because of bad early-season looks and that he might be poised for a breakout 2020.

Hilliard was a transient, two-way junior college player who hopped around to a pair of JUCOs before settling at Wichita State as a junior. He was raw, and the relative lack of track record likely contributed to him lasting until the 15th round of his junior season, but for a player with this much physical ability to fall that far is a failure on the part of the amateur side of the industry.

Hilliard is a big, athletic thumper with a rare power/speed combination. He’s flourished in his four years as a full-time hitter, slashing .277/.350/.480 in the minors before reaching the big leagues late last summer. As one might expect for such an under-baked athlete who a) barely played as a junior college freshman and b) also pitched the next two years, Hilliard lacks defensive instincts and feel to hit. His ability to identify pitches he can drive is impressive in context, but well-executed pitches can get him out. Hilliard’s big, gallivanting strides make him a plus runner underway, but his mediocre reads on balls in center detract from his range. It’s still above-average in a corner, closer to fringe in center field. It’s kind of a tweener defensive profile except with way more raw power than is usual for that sort, so Hilliard projects to be a strong big league role player, likely the larger half of a platoon in any of the three outfield positions.

Vavra had a statistical breakout during his junior year at Minnesota — .386/.455/.614 with 10 homers, and everything way up from his sophomore year — and ended up going on the high end of the third to fifth round range where teams were considering him. He’s a patient hitter with an athletic swing who gets the most out of his slight build without often compromising his feel for contact. His swing is kind of grooved, but Vavra is a pitch selection savant, adept at picking out pitches he can drive until he has to expand with two strikes. We think he’s going to hit, have doubles power, and reach base at an above-average clip. That could play every day at shortstop, but we think Vavra is much more likely to end up at second base, where his range could make him an above-average defender. There’s not enough power for an impact regular here, but the athleticism and feel for contact should make Vavra either a low-end regular on the middle infield or a valuable, multi-positional role player.

From a hands and actions standpoint, Welker is actually fine at third base. It’s his lateral quickness that’s an issue, and why he’s generally considered a first base prospect. But same as we’ve seen Travis Shaw and Max Muncy play elsewhere, it stands to reason someone out there thinks Welker can stay at third, or handle duties around the second base bag in certain situations. Those are the teams most likely to think Welker can play something resembling an everyday role, because while he has excellent feel to hit, he lacks the raw power typical of first base.

In the mold of Sheldon Neuse or J.D. Davis, Schunk was a burly, two-way college prospect with power and arm strength. After two years of struggling to get to his raw power in games (he hit just four homers combined his freshman and sophomore seasons), Schunk had a breakout junior year and clubbed 15 dingers. We were hoping he’d start pulling and lifting the ball more and he did, both at Georgia and during his first pro summer. He’s an athletic gamer who’s a good defender at third, though because of the arm strength there was some speculative projecting while Schunk was an amateur that he might catch. The power production needs to keep coming, but Schunk has a shot to be a regular.

Doyle was tough to learn about before the 2019 draft because while he became difficult to hide in the truest sense, nobody wanted to tip their hand as to where he was on their board, as small school players are placed with quite a bit of variability. The physical tools were obvious and pretty similar to what Dodgers prospect D.J. Peters looked like coming out of junior college. Doyle is built like an old school, run-stopping safety at a physical 6-foot-3, 220 pounds. He runs well, has power, and after the draft, against the best pitching he ever faced in his life, Doyle mashed. His ball/strike recognition and ability to spoil pitchers’ pitches were much better than we would have anticipated considering how few quality arms he had seen to that point. He has everyday physical ability and isn’t as raw as we thought he’d be.

It is not enough to say that Pint is having issues with control. Pitchers who walk guys at even a 10% or worse clip face legitimate questions about their ability to start, and sometimes their ability to pitch in the big leagues at all. Pint walked more than 30% of the hitters he faced last year, and had more wild pitches than innings. Such strike-throwing incompetence forced a move to the bullpen, which siphoned away reps, and injuries (oblique, forearm, shoulder) over the last two years have exacerbated this issue. He simply can’t be a big leaguer with this kind of wildness, but we’re still on Pint because his stuff remains incredible, among the best in the minors.

Through these struggles, Pint has continued to throw in the upper-90s with one of the harder power curveballs on the planet. The chances that he ends up as part of a rotation in any capacity have shrunk considerably, but there’s still a fair shot that he becomes a high-leverage reliever.

Amador has already gotten stronger and twitchier than he appeared to be on the amateur circuit, and he flashed some in-game power in last summer’s Tricky League. For a switch-hitter this young, Amador already has fairly advanced feel to hit in games, even if the swings aren’t always pretty. He’s medium-framed and likely to grow into some more power, but probably not a ton. He’s graceful and athletic enough that we also consider him likely to stay on the middle infield, though we’re not sure if it’ll be at second base or shortstop. There’s everyday ceiling here, but of course, teenagers are quite volatile.

We’ve learned the hard way that graceful deliveries do not always foreshadow improvement to control and command, so we’re not totally sold that Olivarez will develop cogent strike-throwing ability even though his mechanics are silky smooth. He does have tremendous stuff for his age, already sitting in the mid-90s early during his starts and flashing a plus curveball. There’s arguably too much velocity separation between the heater and curveball for the latter to be effective right now, but it has bat-missing depth and shape. Similar to his presently poor feel for location, Olivarez lacks changeup feel. Many things — holding the velo deep into games, mechanical consistency, a sharper curveball, a much better changeup — need to progress for Olivarez to attain what appears to be massive potential when you see his arm strength, frame, and proclivity for spin.

We don’t have many 27-year-olds on prospect lists period, let alone ones above the 40 FV tier. But Goudeau’s 2019 breakout, during which he posted a 30% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate at Double-A and allowed just four baserunners during the AFL season, was remarkable and, as we’ve learned more about the components of pitching, seems real. Goudeau epitomizes fastball spin efficiency, creating near perfect backspin and seam uniformity on his heater, giving it bat-missing carry at the top of the strike zone. His plus curveball is almost indistinguishable from the fastball for most of its flight. Those two pitches together would suffice to make Goudeau an effective middle reliever, but if he retains this abrupt, extreme strike-throwing ability, then perhaps he can go multiple innings. It’s rare for four-seam/curveball guys to succeed in Denver, though.

All of the teenage hitters who began 2019 in Extended Spring Training before moving on to the Pioneer League get compared to one another by scouts, and Carreras is universally considered to have the greatest upside because he has the most realistic chance to grow into impact power. His swing has leverage and real bat speed already, and his wiry frame portends more, and though his bat path and stride are both kind of a mess, Carreras’ hand-eye coordination and bat control enabled him to succeed against mostly college-level pitching last year at age 19. He’s a plus runner and athletic infield defender who will probably only fit at third base once he’s done filling out. Because so much of the offensive competency is still messy, this is a high risk prospect, but unquestionably one of the more exciting talents in the system.

The list of current first baseman with premium contact skills but middling game power is full of players hovering around replacement level. Overripe Albert Pujols and Daniel Murphy, last year’s Joey Votto. This seems to be Nevin’s fate. We’ve seen him hit oppo homers but it comes from quality, barreled contact rather than raw strength and power. He tracks pitches beautifully and can make quality contact with pitches all over the zone, but it’s very tough for a righty-hitting first baseman without big power to profile. Nevin’s reps at third base have dwindled, and he played a few games in left field last summer. He’s on the 40-man and looks like a corner bench bat.

After he looked just okay against his elite peers on the summer showcase circuit, Lavigne generated a ton of buzz as a senior the following spring. Northeast popup high schoolers have a dubious track record (there has never been a major-league hitter from New Hampshire) because they spend all spring mashing bad high school pitching, but lots of teams were in on Lavigne’s spike in power and thought he fit in the second tier of high school hitting prospects in the draft behind the likes of Nolan Gorman and Jarred Kelenic.

Lavigne has not shown that kind of power with the wooden bats in pro ball, both because he’s not hitting the ball as hard as we anticipated and because he isn’t lifting it. Were Lavigne as physically projectable as his age suggests, this would be less worrisome, but he’s a broad-shouldered, imposing presence, so the lack of present thump is somewhat troubling. We’re not out on him yet (he’s too young), but first base-only prospects need to mash and that hasn’t happened here yet.

The Rockies made Doyle their second consecutive second round college reliever pick in 2017 and after his velocity was way down just after his draft, he has since been as advertised, with a mid-90s fastball and plus slider. He probably should have been pushed to Double-A at some point last season but the Rockies have taken things slow. He has the stuff to reach Denver sometime next year, but he doesn’t have to be on the 40-man until next winter, so perhaps 2021 is more likely. He has a shot to be a set-up type.

It was yet another year of inconsistency and injury for Max Scherzer’s mechanical doppelgänger, Ryan Castellani, who was shelved for much of the summer due to a surgery that cleaned up bone chips in his elbow. Upon returning for the Fall League, Castellani was sitting 90-93 with his usual tailing action while flashing above-average secondary stuff. While he has the stuff to start, he seems much more likely to end up in the bullpen now that he’s on the 40-man, but can’t stay healthy or throw strikes. We expect a quick hook if that’s not remedied early next year.

Diaz is the first Cuban amateur ever signed by Colorado. He’s an athletic, instinctive middle infield prospect with modest physical projection and promising bat to ball skills. For now those skills manifest as modest, all-fields line drive contact, and Diaz is likely a hit-only offensive player in the long run. He’s seen action all over the infield but we have him projected to second base, where he has a fair chance to profile because of the bat. It’s more likely he ends up in a utility role.

Kauffmann is a one-seam sinker/changeup righty with a pretty firm, inconsistent mid-80s slider. A refined slider gives him a good shot to pitch in the back of a rotation. He was used heavily by Michigan during their deep 2019 postseason run, so he didn’t pitch in pro ball last summer.

Wallace has a starter’s mix — mid-90s heat with tail, a changeup with mirroring movement, a sweeping slider — but his arm action is long and low, so he likely projects in relief. There’s clear industry appetite for varied mechanical looks, and Wallace provides one.

Santos’ fastball velocity range is rather vast, but when he was coming out of the bullpen during Fall League, he was sitting 94-97 for entire outings. He doesn’t have a bat-missing secondary; rather he has a deep well of average pitches from which to draw. Whether he’s a No. 5/6 starter type or his repertoire gets pared down to what Colorado thinks gives him the best chance of missing bats out of the bullpen, we think Santos is clearly a rosterable arm of some kind.

Tovar is a complete defensive player, both instinctive and fundamentally sound, as well as flashy and acrobatic. He’s already ditched switch-hitting and is severely lacking in strength at the plate, which needs to improve dramatically if he’s going to be a big leaguer at all, let alone some kind of regular. There’s risk that he only develops into a Dixon Machado type of player, but he has a real carrying tool in the defense.

A prep projection case who finally had the velo show up during his draft spring, Ethridge was working 92-95 with heavy sink last year, his first as a starter since high school. Like Castellani, Ethridge’s delivery is a little Scherzer-y, and his arm slot helps create impact, tailing movement on his changeup. He’s on the fifth starter/reliever line due to stuff quality, not control/command.

Feltner spent a chunk of his college career in the bullpen, and he projects there long term. His arm action is quite long, and while he can bully hitters with his fastball in the zone, he lacks precise command of his stuff. He lives in the mid-90s with tail as a starter and has a diving changeup that we think will miss big league bats. The slider has big sweeping action but is more easily identifiable out of his hand.

Bowden has rare lefty velo and we’ve seen a plus changeup from him in the past, but reports on the cambio weren’t as strong this year. He still projects in middle relief.

Toss out Koss’ Pioneer League stat line, as the league’s hitting environment makes that kind of analysis wholly unreliable. Visual evaluation of Koss’ skills as a hitter and serviceable infield defense still merit inclusion on the list. At this point, he projects as a hit-first infielder. We’d like Colorado to push him and stress test the bat, but that’s not their org’s style.

Eusebio was flashing three above-average pitches in 2017, then blew out his elbow early in 2018. Due to injury, he’s never thrown more than 72 innings in a single season, and that was back in 2015. Now 23, Eusebio is officially behind, but his stuff was only down a bit beneath it’s usual level when he pitched late last summer, so there’s still a shot this guy breaks out and gets pushed quickly, especially if he just gets ‘penned.

We like twitchy, athletic, catch-and-throw backstops with contact skills, and Palma has those qualities. He is not very physical and the quality of his contact, even though he makes a lot of it, is troubling; his ceiling might just be a backup because of it.

Tyler has had injury issues, both forearm and shoulder, dating back to college, and he’s now a 24-year-old who has only thrown 83 pro innings. At his best, Tyler will show you 96-98 with a plus changeup, but last year he was more 91-94. He needs to show some bounce back early in 2020.

Ramos has Quad-A hitter written all over him and his Fall League trial and winter ball performance haven’t helped. But he has gigantic raw power, enough that he’s a cut above our honorable mention tier.

Bart’s first full pro season was interrupted by a fractured left hand, which sidelined him for about six weeks, and is the likely reason his 2019 power production was unremarkable until a torrid final week of the season buoyed his stat line. Sent to the Arizona Fall League for extra reps, Bart was the league’s star pupil before he was hit by two pitches in the same game, the second of which fractured his right thumb. That ended his season but in that narrow window of health we saw glimpses of Bart’s power with physically fit phalanges. And we had plenty of looks at his power, particularly to his pull side, in college, including a titanic blast that cleared the facade of Georgia Tech’s football complex in left field and was never found.

The defensive tools are the foundation of Bart’s skillset, the cornerstone of a certain big league future. He’s Mike Alstott’s size but with the lateral quickness and ground game of a small-framed catcher. He’s quick out of his crouch and throws accurate lasers to second base. He also has field general qualities: he’s a rousing, vocal leader at times, a calming presence at others. We still have some questions about the hit tool — we posited Bart was just frustrated by being pitched around in college and developed some bad habits, but he was swing-happy again in 2019. Still, we think he’ll get to much or all of his power, play all-world defense, and be an All-Star catcher, a proper heir apparent to Buster Posey.

The Giants dusty, tightly-confined backfields abut a gym with the sort of athleisure-wearing clientele you’d expect in Scottsdale. Last January, when most baseball facilities across the country were dark, just feet away from oblivious Peloton riders and tennis-playing retirees, a lucky few scouts and media folks had a religious experience watching the sweetest-swinging teenager on Earth absolutely roast balls fed to his barrel by a high-speed pitching machine. Because of how close you can sit next to the field there, you can feel the sonic force of bat-to-ball impact radiate into your body. When Marco Luciano connects, you feel it to your core. He is not normal. To find bat speed comps you need to look toward Javier Baez, Eric Davis, whatever the top of your mental catalog might be. And while he already generates plenty of it, Luciano’s square-shouldered frame indicates more power might be coming. The length created by Luciano’s natural, uppercut swing is offset by the explosiveness in his hands; he’s not particularly strikeout-prone and he doesn’t take out-of-control hacks. Unless something unforeseen about Luciano’s approach is exposed as he moves through the minors, all of this power seems likely to actualize. His AZL walk rate is encouraging early evidence that he’s unlikely to be so exposed.

As an athlete and infielder, Luciano is only fair. He might play a passable shortstop one day because his hands and actions are fine most of the time, but he can’t presently make strong, accurate throws from multiple platforms. It looks increasingly likely that he’ll move to the outfield, enough so that some scouts have him projected there, but it’s too early to cut bait and move him. He has elite hitting talent, he’s produced on paper, and he already has average exit velos and a hard-hit rate that grade as 65 on the scale. If he continues to perform, especially if the Giants send him right to Augusta and he hits his way to San Jose, then this time next year we’ll be talking about Marco Luciano as one of the best prospects in baseball, and if he does so while improving his infield defense, perhaps the best.

Ramos’ feel for opposite field contact developed out of necessity when his physical tools dipped in 2018. That turned out to be valuable when they returned last year, and half of his 16 homers were hit to the right of center field. Ramos’ bat head drags into the zone, which would cause most hitters to be late, but Ramos’ swing just scoops fly balls to right field, and his strength pushes them toward the heavens. Some of the strikeout issues (25% at Hi-A, 30% at Double-A) become less concerning when you remember Ramos was 19-years-old all year, but they become a bit troubling again when you realize he’s destined for a corner.

Built like a boulder stacked on two Iberico hams, Ramos is already slowing down, and he was an average runner in the Fall League. It’s not great if he is suddenly a corner guy with whiff/discipline issues, though his plate discipline was much more palatable last year. Retaining that will be important or we’re just talking about a Randal Grichuk sequel.

Bishop changed his college commitment late (he was originally going to play two sports at Washington), and headed to ASU. After struggling as an underclassman, he arrived for his junior season with a better body and quieter swing, and broke out. He sent many non-conference pitches rocketing into Phoenix’s midnight sky before he started seeing — and swinging over the top of — Pac-12 breaking balls. Whether this is fixable was the subject of many draft room debates, as was Bishop’s relatively short track record of performance.

Bishop has rare physical tools. He’s a plus runner and will post 70 run times to first on occasion, has solid feel for center field and huge, playable power. It’s unclear why his arm strength dipped last year when it was an asset earlier in his career, but it’s not a significant part of the skillset and we heard nothing odd about his pre-draft medical, so we’re looking the other way. He’ll be a top 100 prospect as soon as we’re more confident in the hit tool.

International Director Joe Salermo and his staff have an eye for bat speed, as Matos is one of several youngsters with lightning-fast wood. He was a DSL All-Star before coming stateside for the homestretch of the AZL, and the Orange Giants dropped him right in the top of their playoff lineup. An outfield collision soon ended his season, though he left the field under his own power holding a towel to his face.

Matos isn’t a huge-framed outfielder but he projects for plus raw power at peak anyway, because of his ability to rotate. He also has plus speed and he was selectively aggressive during his brief AZL trial, taking big hacks in hitters counts rather than all the time. It’s possible he has underlying issues (breaking ball recognition, expansive approach, any number of things) that we just don’t know about yet because rookie-level pitching isn’t capable of shedding light on them. But just on tools, Matos belongs in the same general area as most of the top high schoolers from the 2019 draft, which puts him a shade beneath the tier of prospect who’ll be on our top 100 list this offseason.

Webb’s career has been Chutes and Ladders for the last several years. He had Tommy John midway through 2016, and the little bit of 2017 for which he was healthy he spent in a strictly-regimented relief role. Finally back in a rotation the following year, Webb blew up. He was holding 92-95 deep into starts, topping out at 97, and spinning in a dastardly slider. Unrefined fastball control indicated relief risk at the time, but the injury and timing of Webb’s surgery robbed him of reps, so it was fair to project slightly better control.

Early in 2019, Webb was popped for PEDs and suspended for 80 games. Upon return, the fastball was down, more 91-94, and it settled there throughout 2019. But Webb’s changeup has improved and a clearly demarcated two-seamer will help it play. The command piece is still not always there, particularly early in games, but at other times Webb has arm-side feel for the change, glove-side feel for his slider, and and he’ll show east/west command of the heater. It’s No. 4/5 stuff, shaded on either side of the slash depending on how the command and changeup progress.

Wilson was an Angel for half a year before he was tethered to Zack Cozart’s contract and traded to the Giants, a prospect burp to make budgetary room at the big league level. Wilson was not a traditional first round talent based on visual evalauations. He’s a relatively projectionless, medium-framed infielder without a clear plus tool, and he lacked the strikeout-to-walk ratios first round collegiate players usually exhibit. But, his hands work great in the box, his swing is as compact as his frame (making it possible for him to get on top of high fastballs), he tracks breaking balls very well, and he was very young for a college player, still just 20 on draft day. Some scouts on the amateur side wanted him to catch in pro ball and thought he had the toughness to do it. Others think he’ll be a fine 2B or 3B defender with a balanced, stable offensive profile. There is very likely limited ceiling here, probably something close to an average regular, but Wilson is also a fairly high probability contributor because of his bat-to-ball skills and defensive profile.

More than any of the other teenagers on this list, Toribio is a fully formed physical entity, a brawny, heavy-footed thumper who looks like Aramis Ramirez did in his prime. That sort of physicality at this age creates risk that he’ll outgrow third base, and it’s very likely that, even if he stays there, he’ll only be passable at the position.

Toribio’s power and feel to hit — he has some head violence when he takes big cuts, but still generates a loud, heavy thwack when his swing is more controlled and precise — means he might profile at first base should he have to move. We don’t expect much more raw power to come because he is already so physically mature. We’re going to monitor his platoon splits over the next year because, to the eye, he’s much less adept at picking up lefty stuff, perhaps concerningly so, but there’s not nearly enough data to support that yet. If he stays at third and the bat-to-ball skills hold, he could be an above-average regular. The low-end of the potential outcomes is a platoon first baseman.

Canario is still not a polished, skillful hitter — he has mediocre natural timing and feel to hit and his front side often leaks, which leaves him vulnerable against breaking balls away — so last summer’s batting average was higher than what we expect moving forward. But he does have ridiculous power and bat speed, which enables him to make impact, all-fields contact even when he mis-hits balls. This is a risky corner bat, but Canario has potential middle-of-the-order talent because of the raw power and a good chance to get to it in games because his swing has natural lift. There’s huge ceiling if the hit/approach component improves.

The first native Honduran to play in the majors, Dubon reached Double-A back in 2016. He seemed to be on the big league fast track when the Red Sox asked him to play center field that fall, but it took two trades and year of rehab from a torn ACL before he finally cracked a big league lineup. First sent from Boston (which signed him) to Milwaukee along with Travis Shaw as part of a lopsided package for Tyler Thornburg, Dubon was traded to San Francisco last summer in exchange for Drew Pomeranz.

Most of Dubon’s role is tied to his ability to make contact, a skill derived from strong hand-eye coordination and bat control. His formerly slender, willowy frame has filled out some, and in 2018 Dubon stopped scrubbing his leg kick with two strikes, but he’s still not getting much out of his lower half and his contact quality is entirely dependent on barrel accuracy, which will limit him to doubles power. Defensively, Dubon is passable at shortstop and second base. Ideally, in a reserve role, he’d be able to play center field as well, but aside from the five games he played there in 2016, he’s only ever played the middle infield. His home-to-first times were down a bit last year coming off the ACL injury, so either the top-end speed he once had (we’ve had a 6 on Dubon’s wheels each of the last several years, until now) will return, or he’ll need to show immediate feel for center for him to see big league reps there. We have him in as a contact-oriented utility player.

Davis began incorporating an open stance and bigger leg kick into his swing during the 2018 Arizona Fall League. That adjustment helped him improve his timing at the plate and create a bigger move forward, unlocking previously dormant power. He still has a bottom-hand heavy swing and flat bat path, and thus is unlikely to reach all that the power, but he might be a low-end regular anyway.

Corry was a pretty raw fastball/curveball high school prospect whose changeup improved throughout the last two seasons, which is especially relevant because that pitch’s movement pairs better with his fastball than the curve. Armed with that change, he dominated Low-A, striking out 172 hitters in 122 innings. He’s a fairly stiff, short strider and often has scattershot fastball control — he walked a batter every other inning last year — so there’s significant relief risk here. We’re not inclined to project on Corry’s control enough to consider him a starter, but we like him as a bat-missing, multi-inning reliever who ends up throwing 90 or so innings.

Two IL stints, including one for a shoulder injury, derailed what could have been a breakout year for Santos. As a teenager, he bullied hitters with his sinking, sometimes cutting, mid-90s fastball and nasty slider, but he arrived for 2019 camp with a much better changeup and looked like a potential mid-rotation arm during the spring. Then he was shut down because of the shoulder and wound up throwing only 34 innings all year. He’s officially behind on both the work load and command fronts, increasing the odds that he’s a reliever, and forcing us to shade down his FV due to the early-career injury stuff.

Hjelle body comps to a young Pau Gasol and he’s remarkably athletic for his size. His delivery is graceful and fluid, and he has no trouble repeating it nor fielding his position, as he’s quick off the mound to corral bunts and cover first base, both of which can be challenging for XXL pitchers. Hjelle’s (it’s pronounced like peanut butter and _____ ) fastball only sits in the low-90s but plays up because of extension, life, and the angle created by his height. Those traits in concert with one another make for a heater that competes for whiffs in the zone. The secondaries are closer to average, often below, though Hjelle can locate them. He’s a pretty safe No. 4/5 starter candidate, though we might be underrating how uncomfortable he is to hit against.

Adon is the hardest-throwing pitcher in the minors and, because he finally found some slider feel late in 2018, he struck out more than a batter per inning for the first time last year. He had been a raw, arm strength goon for what seemed like forever, and he remains concerningly wild; he may be better off dumping his slider in to get ahead of hitters and then chucking the fastball by them, rather than the other way around. Ultimately, he has late-inning, elite closer stuff but a fairly low chance of actualizing. We put a 45 FV on the top tier of pure, two-pitch relievers (most elite closers are failed starters) and Adon deserves that sort of consideration, but his track record of wildness and advanced age have him just shy of that.

Pomares’ nutty triple slash line in the AZL is a caricature of his true ability, especially the power, but we were still pretty surprised when we sourced his exit velo data and found it was already above big league average. Pomares only makes impact contact to his pull side but he does have the ability to slash balls the other way. He punishes pitchers who try to double up on breaking balls against him, and he has several other hitterish traits. He’s not a speedster and has more of a tweener defensive profile, so he probably needs more game power to profile in a corner. Our visual evaluation is fairly demure, but you can frame discussion around Pomares in such a way that he’s considered a polished hitter with sneaky juice who also has a shot to play center field, which sounds great.

Tilt Berroa’s cap another 15 degrees and he’s a dead on-mound ringer for Fernando Rodney, both physically and mechanically. Right now, he’s mostly a teenager with premium arm strength and somewhat inconsistent secondaries, both of which flash at least average. Both secondaries will likely depend on location to work, and Berroa doesn’t currently repeat consistently enough for that. But he has a chance to, which means he could end up with several bat-missing offerings and profile comfortably in a rotation. If only one secondary comes along, he’s still a good reliever.

Rivera has an Emilio Pagan body and delivery comp, and he has natural proclivity for spin. His power stuff — 92-96 with cut action and a plus curveball — might tick up in single-inning stints, so while his command likely pushes him to the bullpen, he might be dominant there.

Teng was one of two players, along with Yunior Severino, who the Twins signed after voiding amateur shortstop Jelfy Marte’s $3 million deal due to vision issues. It didn’t take long for them to flip Teng to San Francisco as part of the package that netted Sam Dyson. He has a thick lower half and is a middling athlete, but he’s very well balanced over his blocking leg and otherwise has a smooth delivery that should not only enable him to throw enough strikes to remain a starter, but perhaps develop plus command, as well.

There’s already strong breaking ball utility here, the ability to vary shape based on location, and competitive, arm-side changeup feel, too. Teng’s frame is maxed out, so he probably won’t add velo, but that’s still a No. 4/5 skillset.

Doval is one of the weirder pitchers in all of the minors, as his delivery and stuff are each as odd as they are inconsistent. When he’s right, the long-armed, side-winding right-hander chucks upper-90s stuff with either heavy sink, or rising cut action caused by his arm angle. He also throws a hard, horizontal slider. The Trackman readout for Doval is shocking. His primary fastball/cutter spins in at about 2700 rpm, which is incredible considering how hard he throws. He also generates nearly seven feet of extension, and the effective velocity of his fastball is about 2 mph harder than its actual velo. There are outings where he’s untouchable for several innings. He also has nuclear outings where he walks everyone and gives up a bunch of runs before registering an out.

We’re dying to capture Doval on the high speed camera and see how the hell this works and what could be done to improve his consistency. We’re not even all that confident that he’ll figure it out, but we’re bewitched by his stuff and think he has a chance to be an elite bullpen weapon if he ever does.

Genoves is Rule 5 eligible but probably too undercooked to be selected. Built like one of the Moai sculptures on Easter Island, Genoves may not have the mobility to catch long term. But he has a plus arm, he’s procedurally advanced for a 20-year-old, and he has the leadership qualities and intangibles that have an outsized impact at catcher. Plus, some of his mobility issues might soon be rendered moot by the existence of electronic strike zones. He also has plus power, enough to put balls out to right center, though Genoves’ current pull-happy approach doesn’t facilitate many homers out there.

This is a somewhat speculative ranking based on what the future of the position may hold. On tools Genoves has a shot to be a regular, though a backup role is probably more likely.

The gap between what Hilson is now and what he might be is perhaps the widest in pro baseball, a yawning chasm that the Giants player development staff will try to close. A complete lack of bat control undermines his scintillating physical ability, and his grooved swing leads to a lot of whiffs on pitches in the zone. Hilson’s chances of becoming a big leaguer are fairly low, but because of his physical talent, he also has a chance to be a David Dahl sort of player if he develops even a 40 hit tool.

Rosario had defensive issues (both hands and arm accuracy, perhaps as a result of him needing to rush after booting balls) throughout the summer after he signed and his future position is unclear. He does have serious pop, though, and even if the defensive problems linger there’s a shot Rosario hits for enough power to profile anywhere.

The timing of Arteaga’s deal, combined with scouts’ general reticence to work in Venezuela, made him tough to evaluate ahead of signing day. He’s been a bit more visible since then, and the carrying tool is going to be the glove. Arteaga’s range, footwork, actions, and athleticism are all terrific. He doesn’t have a clear path to an impact bat based on what teams have seen so far, but his frame is projectable. He may be stateside in January.

Beck has a dandy 12-6 curveball and he was throwing quite a bit harder in the AFL than he was when Eric saw him right after Atlanta traded him to San Francisco. Those two pitches suggest a big league bullpen/No. 5 starter.

Wong was holding 93-96 with sink deep into games as a junior at Grand Canyon and his strike-throwing ability carried over to pro ball. Even though he doesn’t spin the ball exceptionally well, he does create some life on his heater and his changeup has improved a bit already. He projects as a No. 5 starter or inning-eating bulk reliever.

Wong was kept at Triple-A for the third straight year and posted his second consecutive season with an above-average statline. He’s bounced around waivers, a 40-man casualty of Tampa Bay and the Angels before landing in San Francisco. His versatility, speed, and above-average contact ability from the left side fit like a glove in a bench role.

The enigmatic Siri has premium physical ability but lacks any kind of plan at the plate, and it’s undercut his offensive performance for much of his career. He’s a volatile talent and person who has begun to be passed around on the waiver wire. The right clubhouse and opportunity to play might enable him to be a real everyday player. He has that kind of power, speed and natural feel for hitting the ball in the air, but it’s not a great sign when teams are still waiting for a 25-year-old to mature as a ballplayer.

Jimenez was picked by San Francisco in the 2019 Rule 5 Draft. Like Ramirez, Jimenez also signed late, agreeing to his first pro contract just before he turned 22. He also missed most of 2017 due to injury, and those sorts of factors combined to limit him to just 33 innings above A-ball even though he is about to turn 26. He sits 93-95, touches 97, the heater spins at about 2450 rpm, and Jimenez’s vertical arm slot makes it hard for hitters to discern the fastball and his power breaking ball from one another. I think he’s pretty likely to stick in a relief role.

McDonald was a pop-up prep arm from rural Mississippi, almost smack in the middle of the triangle created by the highways that connect Biloxi, Hattiesburg, and Mobile. Every team saw him up to 96 with a good, two-plane breaking ball but had very different projections on how the stuff and body would mature. Those who like him thought his feel for spin could be parlayed into multiple weapons, while others saw a likely reliever with just fair physical projection.

McCray still has work to do from a stride length and swing timing perspective, but he got much stronger in the last year, and did so while retaining his plus speed. Perhaps most surprisingly, he tracked pitches very well over his pro debut and he has promising feel for contact. Again though, the swing needs refinement for the physical tools to actualize.

You need to dream to see Vinicio as a future big leaguer but he gives you plenty of reasons to hope. He is athletic and well-made, graceful, balanced, and loose. His curveball has shape but not power, something that will need to come as his body matures, just like his velocity generally. In his changeup, Vinicio has an out pitch, something that will entice swings and misses as soon as he steps on a pro field.

Advanced plate discipline and enough hitting tools (big strength and a low load that creates lift) made Wyatt attractive in the draft, but he’s a maxed-out first base-only prospect with 50 raw power.

After missing long stretches with injuries over the last several years, the Giants moved Vizcaino to the bullpen in 2019 and he dominated Hi-A for a month before settling in at the upper levels, where he was just okay. He has no-doubt, big league middle relief stuff but he’s is a 30 athlete with 30 control, so everything plays down because too many pitches end up in non-competitive locations.

FItzgerald has everyday tools and he was a big name in high school, but apart from some spurts, he never quite performed up to his physical potential at Louisville. He has a solid shot to stick at shortstop and develop at least average power, especially if San Francisco can help him better incorporate his lower half into his swing.

Marred by multiple injuries and a serious illness during his senior year of high school, Frechette went from intriguing power projection prospect to relative afterthought during his predraft spring. Once he signed and got going in the AZL, some of the explosion that made him interesting the summer before had returned. He’s athletic enough to give it a try in a corner outfield spot, and for now, we like his frame and present raw power more than some of the guys drafted ahead of him.

Cannon has serious juice, legitimate 80-grade raw power. He’s enormous and has mobility issues created by his size and exacerbated by multiple knee surgeries. There’s extreme risk here due to the R/R first base profile and the medical, which goes beyond the knee stuff, but he has to be on here because of how loud the power is.

Robinson’s physical composition and athleticism drove club interest and netted him the fourth largest bonus in the 2017 international free agent class. Even as a 17-year-old on Arizona’s backfields, he stood apart physically from rehabbing big leaguers several years his senior, and instantly attracted evaluators’ attention, like the gravitational pull of a very dense star. And star is apt because that’s the kind of projection Robinson’s tools allow for. Big, fast, and prone to generating thunderous contact, he’s more physically alike to young SEC pass catchers than most of the baseball-playing universe. But the background — a giant, Bahamian man-child without the showcase track record of most of his Dominican peers — meant the industry knew even less about how Robinson would handle pro pitching than it did the average J2 prospect. After some initial inconsistencies, Robinson has not only quelled those concerns but also surpassed expectations, and in 2019 he clubbed his way from the Northwest League to full-season ball as an 18-year-old.

Robinson’s bat path lacks the lift necessary to produce in-game power on par with his raw, but the foundation of his swing is sound, with nothing too complicated despite Robinson’s size. He’s already hitting 50% of his balls in play with an exit velo of 95 mph or more, which is up in Joey Gallo/Nelson Cruz territory, it’s just often low-lying contact. Robinson’s fast enough to continue being developed in center field, but there’s a good chance he ends up on a big league roster with a superior defender who kicks him to right. His ceiling, that of a 35 homer force who can play a passable center, hasn’t changed since he first began appearing on the electronic pages of FanGraphs; his progress is just evidence that such a future is becoming more likely.

Varsho presents us, and other evaluators with anticipatory tendencies, with a bit of a conundrum. While we expect that future changes to the way balls and strikes are called (i.e. an electronic strike zones) will make it so below-average receivers like Varsho can catch quite comfortably, it’s also going to raise the offensive bar at the position in a way that alters how we think about catchers generally. Once framing became quantifiable, the average wRC+ at catcher went from about 93 down into the mid-80s. If that skill becomes moot, catcher offense will certainly rise.

Varsho’s case is unique, as is his skillset for the position. He’s a plus runner who might steal 30 bases at peak, a contact-oriented, gap-to-gap hitter with catalytic qualities found in old school one and two-hole hitters. How much of that spark erodes if Varsho is asked to take a beating behind the dish one hundred times a summer? Probably some, and when paired with his defensive shortcomings — he has a fringe arm, trouble catching balls cleanly, especially toward the bottom of the zone, and at times struggles to block breaking stuff in the dirt — there are suddenly several reasons to limit his catching reps and deploy him in left field, or perhaps try to hide him at second base. Varsho seems motivated to catch and he’s both quite athletic and highly competitive, two things that often help prospects carve paths to unlikely big league outcomes. So while we think it’s becoming less likely that he will be an everyday catcher, we’re still in on his offensive ability, makeup, and rare collection of skills, and remain intrigued by the proposition (and growing likelihood) that he’ll be a dynamic, multi-positional player who catches once in a while.

All of the left-handed hitters at the 2019 Futures Game had some help from the wind blowing out toward Progressive Field’s right field bleachers, but even with that aid, Thomas’ batting practice in Cleveland was surprising. He was about a year removed from falling to the 2018 draft’s second round in part because his stature didn’t allow for traditional, frame-based power projection, but he’s very strong for his size (Thomas’ dad is the White Sox strength and conditioning coach) and already has average raw at age 19. He’s well-conditioned, but short, built narrowly, and likely to max out with a frame (and skill set) similar to Brett Gardner‘s.

He lets balls travel deep into the hitting zone and sprays hard contact all over the field — about half of his extra-base hits were stuck to the opposite field last year, many of them doubles sliced into the left field corner. An unchanged approach to contact would likely result in limited over-the-fence power, but Thomas is fleet of foot and either projects in center field or, due to arm strength, as a plus-plus left fielder, which takes some pressure off the offense. There’s some tweener/fourth outfielder risk here but Thomas now has a four-year track record of hitting against pitching that is often older than he is, beginning with his performance on the showcase circuit as an underclassman and ending with an aggressive promotion to Hi-A toward the end of 2019. It’s pretty amazing that an undersized, young-for-the-class hitter from a cold-weather location has moved this quickly without a hiccup, and we’re inclined to believe Thomas will keep hitting and eventually become an everyday big leaguer.

At the lowest levels of the minors, it’s hard to tell if a ball/strike recognition prodigy is real or not because the opposing pitchers are often just incompetent strike-throwers. Perdomo’s 2019 exposure to full-season pitching put to rest concerns that we were previously overrating his diagnostic abilities, as he continued to grind out tough at-bats against sentient pitching, and walk at a 14.5% clip at Low-A Kane County before his August promotion to Hi-A. So confident is Perdomo in his notion of the strike zone that, after taking a looking strike three during Fall League, he flipped off the TrackMan unit calling balls at Salt River Fields.

That skill combined with Perdomo’s bat-to-ball ability from the left side (his right-handed swing is bad) and his elegant shortstop defense, gave him a promising foundation of skills as a teenager on the backfields. Then, the juice started to come. Perdomo’s exit velos climbed throughout 2019. He averaged about 80 mph off the bat at Low-A, then about 82 mph after his promotion to Hi-A, and finally averaged 87 mph during a limited Fall League sample. His body has become more mature, and his left-handed swing has become more explosive and now features an overhead, helicopter finish similar to Miguel Andújar’s. There’s still some room for improvement as it relates to the lower half usage in the swing, and it’s possible Perdomo scraps hitting right-handed altogether at some point. The skills/instincts foundation here is solid enough to project Perdomo as a low-end regular, and the burgeoning physical ability means he’s begun to look like quite a bit more than that.

Carroll was electric during his showcase summer, displaying consistent, high-quality, all-fields contact and, at times, surprising power. From a skills and present baseball acumen standpoint, he was perhaps the most polished high schooler in the whole class, but his sleight, narrow build slid him back behind more traditional-looking athletes, like Bobby Witt and CJ Abrams. Though he doesn’t seem inclined to turn on pitches and lift them with power, Carroll loudly squashed concerns about lacking physicality by hitting lasers all summer, first in the AZL, then later in the Northwest League. In addition to having plus pure speed, which will enable him to stay in center field and perhaps be an impact defender there, Carroll is also a sly, instinctive baserunner who presses action. The two unknown variables at this point are a) how Carroll’s lilliputian frame withstands the rigors of a long, full season and b) if the Diamondbacks will try to tweak his swing or approach to produce more power, since his measurable exit velos indicate he has a chance to hit for some.

TrackMan-focused teams were all on Martin the summer after his sophomore year, as he was showing three data-friendly plus pitches and starter traits while he closed games on Cape Cod. Due to a deep veteran staff at Texas A&M and his own inconsistency, Martin only really pitched for part of one season as a starter while he was in college. A lot of teams thought he was just going to be a reliever. The Astros popped him in the second round of the 2017 draft, hoping to tease out the traits they saw on the Cape, and in the two years he was in the org, they did it. Martin was a top 100 prospect before his elbow blew out late last June.

Healthy Martin sits in the mid-90s, mixes in a hard, upper-80s slider, has an above-average power changeup, a more vertically-oriented curveball, and average command. He made too many mistakes during his short big league look in Houston last year and gave up a bunch of dingers, but we think he’ll get his pitch execution issues ironed out and attack hitters the way most Houston arms do: fastballs at the top of the zone, sliders off the plate to the glove side, and changeups and curveballs down. Martin was part of Arizona’s return for Zack Greinke. We’ve diluted his FV a bit because we worry the timing of his surgery will mean he misses most of 2020, though Martin is a premium athlete and animalistic competitor, and people in his current and former org expect him to crush his rehab and be back as soon as possible. If his stuff comes back, we’ll 50 him again.

Bukauskas took time off from pitching and got in the weight room as a high school underclassman, and emerged the following spring with four or five more ticks on his fastball. He then reclassified and was suddenly on track to graduate and be draft eligible a year early, meaning every decision-making amateur evaluator in the country had to get in quickly to see a pitcher who had all this new velocity but with whom scouts had very little history. Then Bukauskas asked not to be drafted (he was, but late, and didn’t sign) so he could go to North Carolina. After a middling freshman year, he was dominant as a sophomore and in the early part of his junior year before his stuff was depressed during North Carolina’s postseason games. That dip inflamed perviously held concerns that durability issues resulting from his size and a violent delivery might push Bukauskas to the bullpen.

A 2018 car accident, which caused a slipped disk in his thoracic spine, limited Bukauskas to about 60 innings in 2018, which left questions about his ability to start unanswered. He was electric when he returned, though, and became increasingly dominant towards the end of the summer before his stuff was seen by the entire industry in the Arizona Fall League. He flashed 70-grade changeups and sliders on occasion, bumped 98, and has added a cutter, which it appears he has since scrapped. He was wild in 2019 and it’s becoming more likely that he winds up in the bullpen, though we think he could be positively dominant in that role.

Walston popped up pretty late, at a point in March when multiple clubs were sending in heat week after week to get some history. Some teams were out when they got multiple outings where he was mostly 84-89, while others are still hot on his trail. We saw him late when he was opening 90-93, cruising 88-91, and reaching back for 93 when he needed it. Walston was young for the class, ultra projectable, an above average athlete, and throws two versions of his curveball with the harder slurve flashing 65- or 70-grade when it’s on, while the slow one is a consistent 60. There’s feel for a changeup and command, and his fastball has life that enables it to compete for swings and misses in the zone even though it isn’t all that hard. Yet. He was up to 94 for Eric in the AZL after he signed. It will depend on how Walston develops physically, and how those gains counterbalance the coming full-season workload, but he has a chance to end up with three plus pitches and impact command. He’s as risky as any teenage pitching prospect, perhaps riskier when you consider those velocity fluctuations. One scout’s upward trajectory is another’s recency bias.

Patino had originally agreed to a deal with Texas, but it was voided due to an elbow injury and he eventually landed with Arizona. Toolsy, physical, and built like Trevor Story, Patino has an exciting combination of speed and power, as well as promising ball/strike recognition. What he lacks at this point is barrel control and a bat path that enables the power. Those are important components and may not be easy to fix, especially the bat control issue. But Patino’s ball/strike and breaking ball recognition could help mitigate those issues, and his ceiling (a high OBP center fielder with power) is lofty if they’re overcome.

Amateur scouts who picked up pro coverage the summer after the draft were in awe of Patino, who was the age of most of the players they had just spent a week discussing in the draft room but more physically gifted than all but a select few of them. A max-effort player with a fairly mature build, Patino may skip over short-season ball next year and head right to the Midwest League to be among athletes with more comparable physical ability, though that may mean he gets fewer reps in center because of Corbin Carroll’s presence there.

Duplantier had been injury-free since college (where he dealt with shoulder problems) until 2018, when he had hamstring issues in the spring, and biceps tendinitis later in the summer. The lost innings resulted in an Arizona Fall League stint, during which Duplantier was one of the better pitching prospects in the league. Despite the biceps issue, his velocity was fine in the fall, when he sat 93-96 and showed three good, clearly demarcated secondary pitches. Then 2019 came. Dup’s stuff was not as crisp during the spring, and he was shuttled back and forth between Triple-A and the big leagues several times; he had a shoulder issue in the middle of the summer and his stuff was down again later in the year. There’s a chance his stuff bounces back and he pitches like the 50 FV we thought he’d be last year, and there’s a chance those two-ish healthy years sandwiched by all the injuries are, in fact, the outliers.

We love how athletic Tabor is and how quickly each of his secondaries became good considering his Northeastern prep school background, but while some of our sources are inclined to continue projecting on his velocity because his build is still young-looking, we think two straight years of 90-93 (Tabor’s velo popped late in high school) makes it more likely the fastball settles here. He’s athletic, his arm slot creates rise on his fastball and bat-missing, vertical action on his breaking stuff, and Tabor has good changeup. We have him projected as a No. 4/5 starter.

Even though we saw him up to 96, we were not big fans of Kelly while he was in high school because he had a softer, maxed out frame and a stiff, violent delivery we believed would limit him to a relief role if his arm didn’t fall off first. Now, he has arguably the best physique in this system at a svelte 205, and was so dominant during minor league spring training that the org was compelled to send him to full season ball even though he was initially slated to hang back in Extended until short season leagues began after the draft. And Kelly delivered, striking out 126 hitters in 100 Low-A innings.

Often, a pitcher who remakes their physique will be rewarded with a jump in velocity. This is not the case with Kelly, who we still have averaging about 92 with his heater. What Kelly does have, is one of the better sliders in the minors, with a shape and bite similar to Brad Lidge’s diving bastard of a slider. Sometimes it comes out of Kelly’s hand high and arcs into the strike zone like a curveball; hitters still can’t touch it. Sometimes it backs up on Kelly and has changeup movement; doesn’t matter. When executed, it’s a big league out pitch right now. Kelly needs to refine his fastball command because it isn’t hard enough to live in the zone, and needs to live at the top of it. We think he’ll have to nibble with the heater and end up working too inefficiently to start, but we think he’ll be an excellent, multi-inning reliever.

In front of a huge contingent of scouts, Jameson carved up Stanford in his first start of the 2019 season and was immediately on the map as a draft-eligible sophomore. His high-maintenance delivery is hard to repeat, but it also makes things awkward for hitters, who don’t typically see this kind of arm slot/release point. And from that release point emerges nasty stuff. Jameson will touch 98, manipulates the shape of two good breaking balls, and flashes an occasional plus changeup. The delivery may make it hard for him to start, and Jameson has a skinny, atypical frame. Some teams think he ends up in relief, but it may be in a multi-inning or high-leverage role, and he’s held velo deep into games as a starter so he may have a shot to stick.

At times, Frias looks like a stiff, velo-only bullpen prospect. At others, he’s competing in or near the zone with four pitches, including a splitter that was much better in 2019. All four pitches give hitters a vastly different look. Frias’ mid-90s fastball has tailing action and his curveball has vertical depth and eats up hitters who are cheating on velo, while the split has late bottom when it’s on, and the slider has horizontal, cutting action. The movement profile of his fastball may not be the best for missing bats, but it’s likely to be an impact pitch because of the velocity. He could end up with three average secondaries (there’s a chance the split becomes better than that) and enough strikes to start, making him a potential No. 4/5 starter or late-inning reliever.

Middle infielders with power are rare and yet Young, who is exactly that, somehow lasted until the 37th round of his draft and signed for just $3,000. This is the Cardinals’ archetypical draftee — a power-first prospect with questionable mobility. Collect enough of those and through a combination of luck and good player development, some of them will turn into passable defenders and become solid big leaguers or tradable assets like Young, who was sent to Arizona in the Paul Goldschmidt deal.

This is our odds-on favorite to take up Wilmer Flores‘ mantle as the heavy-footed middle infield masher the D-backs turn to when they need runs late in games, or who they replace with a better defender when they need to prevent runs late. Though he does most of his damage on pitches on the inner half, Young has enough barrel control to spoil pitches away from him until he gets something he can square up. When Young connects, he does so with power. Buff and square-shouldered, Young’s physicality is a driving component of his power but it’s also why he’s somewhat limited defensively. Since being traded, he has seen time at shortstop, third base, and second; he projects as a 40 defender at all three spots.

We have a source who indicated to us that Beer’s exit velos have been slowly declining since his freshman year at Clemson, and that jives with reports of his overall athleticism and mobility, which have also been in decline since his historic freshman season. It’s an odd athletic trend for someone who was once a decorated amateur swimmer, since swimmers are always ultra sinewy and lean. It is common for baseball players whose bodies mature early to also start to decline early, at least in our anecdotal experience, and this is true of Beer, who was on the scouting radar very early as an old-for-his-grad-year (we really need a word for this) underclassman. Instead of reclassifying and entering the 2015 draft as an 18-year-old, Beer skipped his high school senior year completely and early-enrolled at Clemson. He went on to have one of the best freshman years in college baseball history: .369/.535/.700 with 18 homers, 62 walks, and 27 strikeouts.

In the few intervening years, Beer has continued to perform, his numbers slowly trending down as he reached his draft year at Clemson, then pro ball for a year with Houston before they shipped him to Arizona as part of the Zack Greinke trade. He’s now 23 and has a .294/.388/.508 career line in the minors. He reached Double-A in his first pro season. These are all good signs, and we’re almost certain Beer will be a solid big league role player relatively soon — we just can’t speak to what his shelf life will be and don’t think his ceiling is in the Rhys Hoskins/Pete Alonso realm at all.

There was late-Spring backfield gossip that the D-backs had a hard-throwing righty in the DSL who we might see in Arizona before the summer was through. On the day before his 18th birthday, Martinez threw an inning of AZL ball and bumped 98 on the Chase Field gun. Perhaps more surprising than the velocity, which we had been primed to see, was how well Martinez executed his breaking ball over his next couple of outings. It’s only an average tweener breaking ball right now, but he consistently located it down and away from righties, enticing them to flail at it as it disappeared in the dirt. Eric saw some average changeups, as well. His fastball control is certainly raw, and while Martinez has a strong, projectable frame, his arm action is somewhat odd, with less external rotation going on than with most elite velo guys.

The D-backs need to work on getting Martinez behind the baseball so his fastball doesn’t have cut action (it’s not enough cut to be impactful, it’s just running into barrels, as you can see on our high speed video of Martinez) and instead has ride. That should come with time. Were Martinez draft-eligible, he’d go somewhere in the second round.

Alexander fell out of the top 10 rounds of the 2018 draft due to questions about his signability, hit tool, and age relative to his peers. He was almost 19 on draft day, which, combined with the strikeout issues, moved him way down the boards of teams who care about those variables, especially together. He ended up signing for a very reasonable $500,000. At the time he was seen as an advanced defender with an 80 arm (the teams most bearish on his bat in high school wanted to see him on the mound) and above-average raw power, which Alexander’s pre-daft proponents insisted he’d get to despite the strikeouts. Pro scouts who saw Blaze in 2019 did not quite drop a 55 on the power (which is supported by his TrackMan data) and called him “streaky,” which they perceived to be caused by lapses in focus. He had a strong statistical season, played several positions well and showed an encouraging idea of the strike zone, so we’ve held over his FV from last year despite the dip in reports on the power.

Henry was a strong follow for the 2019 draft, sitting 87-90 in 2018, but took a big step forward in his draft year, coming out of the gate at 89-92, touching 93 mph. Later in the spring, his velo tailed off and some teams moved on, but it came back right before the draft with a strong postseason look for the National Champion Wolverines. Henry was nearly 22 on draft day, so his velo dip was more concerning, but we’re told an injury was to blame. His style of pitching, with deception, great body control, and a high arm slot, fits what progressive clubs generally, and Arizona specifically, are looking for, with vertical movement on the four-seamer and 12-6 action on his curveball, which flashes above average when his arm speed is there. His changeup also flashed above average at times and one scout we spoke with thinks there’s room for another 10-15 pounds of muscle even at age 22, giving him a No. 3/4 starter workhorse profile if things work out.

Fletcher was a tweener outfielder as a SoCal high school prospect. He matriculated to Arkansas, where he slowed down a bit but grew into more power than expected. He still has a slasher-style swing and he has some strikeout issues driven by a rather indiscriminate approach, but he has a chance to be the larger half of a corner outfield platoon.

Espinal is built like a human sports car, chiseled and square-shouldered. He runs like one, too, and may be a plus defender in center field at peak. He has crude feel for slasher-style contact right now, and the way his style and quality of contact develop will dictate what kind of role he’s capable of playing. Right now, he swings and hits like a tweener, but he’s so young that his physical abilities, which are loud, matter much more at this stage. He’s a talented, long-term developmental piece.

Green was a 14th-round senior sign last year and like most senior signs, had 45/50 stuff in college. He was 90-94 with two average breaking balls and had little college experience because he didn’t move into the rotation until his senior season. Last spring, Green’s stuff was up — touching 96 with big sink (he had a 67% GB%), and flashing plus secondaries — for a while before coming back to Earth during the summer after he returned from biceps tendinitis. He projects as a sinkerballing fifth starter.

Widener’s stuff was down across the board last year. Less velo, less spin. That, plus Reno’s hitting environment, plus the new Triple-A baseball, meant Widener went from being the minor league strikeout leader in 2018 to getting shelled in 2019 (his ERA was 8.10). His fastball has natural cut, which is something teams try to eliminate nowadays. It’s possible his fastball movement will change in a meaningful way, but for now we have him projected as a fifth starter.

Nelson had injury issues and moved back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen at Oregon. In the ‘pen, he sits upper-90s with life and angle, and his breaking stuff has nasty, vertical action. Reports we have from amateur scouts, when compared to what we have from Nelson’s pro summer, indicate the D-backs are perhaps trying to tweak Nelson’s breaking ball in some way. This is a potential late-inning arm but we wouldn’t anticipate Nelson to come along quickly considering how raw he is due to a lack of reps.

Smith has had elite strikeout-to-walk ratios dating back to college, but lacks the raw power and lift necessary to profile as an everyday first baseman. Last year, his body and mobility improved, which made him more playable in both outfield corners, and Smith had a strong offensive season in the Southern League, which is tough on offense. He now projects as a high-probability corner platoon role player.

There’s a chance Leyba hits enough to become a César Hernández type of low-end regular, and perhaps with his ability to play a passable shortstop, he’ll be something slightly better. But his injury history is lengthy (Arizona was granted a fourth option year on him due to injury), and he has a somewhat concerning lack of power. He’ll either hit enough to play everyday or he’ll need to start playing other positions to carve out a bench role. He’ll compete with Josh Rojas and Andy Young for playing time in the spring.

Barrosa isn’t toolsy but he has good feel to hit from both sides of the plate and terrific defensive instincts in center field. He’s stout and not very projectable, but already looks like a potential bench outfield type who can play all three spots, and it’s possible he develops an impact hit tool and finds a way to start somehow.

He’s not especially athletic and has mobility issues at third base, but Kennedy can hit. He’s tough to beat in the zone and has strength-driven doubles power, which is probably what he’ll max out with since the cement on the body appears dry. He’s got a squatty, catcherly build and some of the industry wants to see him back there. Arizona seems inclined to try at least some defensive variation here, as evidenced by Kennedy’s handful of starts at second base. We couldn’t find anyone who’s seen him play there, but we suspect he’d have a better shot at catching.

Reports from a couple of sources who saw Guzman in the DR during the summer were concerning. They described an elite athlete with an elite frame who had no idea how to hit, both from a swing efficacy and pitch recognition standpoint. That Guzman was passed over for a late-summer promotion to the U.S. is also telling. He’s too physically gifted to come off of entirely, but his first pro summer was erratic.

There are some yellow flags here. Alvarez didn’t pitch much during the summer due to minor injury, his build is somewhat soft, and he has a violent delivery that creates significant relief risk. He also has promising arm strength for his age, a dandy splitter (with an average spin rate under 1,000 rpm), and he creates viable shape and depth on his breaking ball, though it’s clearly behind his split. He’s likely a long-term bullpen piece, but he could have two huge out-pitches if the velo ticks up out of the bullpen.

Ellis has a very quiet, easy swing but somehow still generates plus power. His near-elite walk rate belies what scouts and in-office sources have indicated to be middling pitch recognition, which sometimes causes him to mis-hit crushable pitches. This manifests as lots of awkward or checked swings, but Ellis doesn’t typically flail and whiff, and he’s strong enough that the contact has a chance to be meaningful even if he didn’t take a great cut. It’s a fair, power-over-hit corner profile that takes a hit if Ellis should ever need to move to first base. So far he’s been playable, but not impactful, at third.

This is probably a right-hitting first baseman in the end, and Castillo’s frame is not as projectable as his measurables might indicate, but he’s young, already has sizable raw thump, and is quite athletic for how big he is. He’s also shown all-fields, in-game power and has surprising straight-line speed for his size. He’s clearly a tier below the Luken Baker type of high school hitter (which would be a 40+ or 45 FV type of prospect), but better than the heavy-footed mashers who beat up on their smaller peers in the lower minors.

A tooled-up ball of clay, Hill needs to be sculpted by player development. He is ultra-twitchy, has plus bat speed and surprising opposite-field power, and can absolutely fly, but he’s raw as a hitter and defender. They’ll try him at second base but the outfield is a long-term possibility.

Ginkel’s velocity has exploded since college, and he now sits 93-96 with tough angle. He also has two good secondaries, a change and slider that both have late, downward movement. His slider has sharp, vertical action and he’s pretty good at locating it down and to his glove side. He’s a likely long-term bullpen piece and he’d be a 40 FV if he weren’t already 26.

Mieses displays impressive flexibility and rotation in his shoulder and upper back, which helps enable his fastball to peak in the mid-90s. His delivery has some stop and start elements that can disrupt his timing and release point, which creates reliever risk, but the three-pitch mix has projection commensurate with a No. 4/5 starter.

Peacock has a heavy, low-90s sinker that has enabled him to generate a 68% groundball rate in 2019. His slider has a 2800 rpm spin rate, but visual evaluations of that pitch put it closer to average. His changeup moves and tails, but is often easy to identify out of his hand due to altered release/arm speed. On one level, Peacock is a one-pitch 25-year-old, but on another, he has a dominant, grounder-inducing fastball and his secondaries have some characteristics that may just need to be refined for one or both of them to be effective.

Mercer was a max-effort 94-97 in college, had scattershot fastball command, and a plus changeup. His velo was down in 2019 (we have him peaking at 96 but average 91-92) and neither of his two breaking balls is especially sharp, though they do have vertical action. We think he’s a Tyler Clippard-style changeup reliever so long as the velocity returns.

Grammes was a two-way player at Xavier (he has plus raw power) and we hope the focus on pitching will enable him to eventually have usable control. You could argue he has 20 control/command right now, and despite the electric quality of his stuff, he’s a long shot to be a big leaguer. But he was up to 99 in college and would flash an occasional 70-grade slider, so if things come together, he could be a bullpen monster.

In the last year or so the D-backs have tried more former position players on the mound than most all of the orgs we monitor in Arizona, and Herrera is one such player. He signed as a catcher, then quickly moved to third, and finally to the mound in his third pro season. His fastball was 94-97 almost immediately. The D-backs sent him right to the Northwest League despite erratic command and breaking ball quality. He’s a developmental relief prospect with premium arm strength.

McCarthy has gone from a player whose pre-draft physical talent may have been masked by injury to someone who appears to be injury-prone. He was running well in the Fall League but the quality of his contact was still limited despite his return from a pair of summer injuries, and we think he lacks the thump to be a real platoon option. It’s possible he has some yet-to-come physicality, which is why he’s still on the list.

The physical manifestation of a Henry Winkler catchphrase, Ay is an interesting 2019 sleeper who missed almost all of his 2018 college season due to injury, and generally threw few innings in college. He has a fast, efficient arm action and can spin a breaking ball. He might break out on a pro development program.

Tunnell played the middle infield at Baylor and didn’t step on a mound until after the D-backs signed him as an undrafted free agent in 2016. As you might expect, he’s raw for a 25-year old, but Tunnell has only recently developed real stuff. He was topping out at 92 mph during some of his 2018 outings, but now sits 93-96 with premium spin and a ball axis that creates vertical movement. He’s older, but might get a look in the big league bullpen sometime in 2020.

Diaz has a collection of average tools that are undercut by a haphazard approach at the plate. The power output that made him rather intriguing back in 2017 now seems like a synthetic creation of the Pioneer League hitting environment.

Short is a relatively unprojectable pitchability lefty with a vertical arm slot. Based on some of the other pro and amateur acquisitions the D-backs have made, some combination of this type of arm slot, the spin direction it helps create, and the approach angle of the pitch seem to be important to them. Short got a $922,500 bonus to sign instead of heading to Louisville.

2019 was the first year in pro ball for the 23-year-old Soto, and we don’t know why or where he came from. MiLB.com’s player page doesn’t even have his signing date in their transaction log. This is a pretty wild 23-year-old in the DSL, but Soto’s lean, athletic build, his arm strength, and his ability to spin a breaking ball are such that he needs to be on our radar, especially considering how little he has pitched.

Rodgers stood out early in his high school career outside Orlando, FL as a regular on the showcase circuit who was often the best player on the field at high profile events while also being the youngest. He had mostly solid average tools and good feel through the middle of his prep career. Then in his senior year, the arm strength, raw power, and bat speed all became plus, and he was the odds on favorite to go first overall. But Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Andrew Benintendi, and fellow Florida prep hitter Kyle Tucker all took steps forward in the spring, and the Rockies were able to get Rodgers third overall.

In pro ball, Rodgers has benefitted form the Rockies’ affiliates being extreme hitters’ environments, which has mostly obscured in the surface stats the fact that his pitch selection is below average. It improved a bit in his second taste of Double-A in 2018, then became an issue again in his late-season promotion to Triple-A. He’s fringy at shortstop and as a runner, so most scouts see him sliding over to second base long-term, but he’s good enough to play shortstop everyday if a club doesn’t have better options and focuses on shifting and positioning around him. There’s enough here that it’s likely Rodgers is a solid everyday player of some sort in 2020, but he may not be the star that some have anticipated.

Hampson was a star at Long Beach State and a mainstay on the Team USA collegiate national team. Scouts doubted he’d stay at shortstop and were worried he wouldn’t have enough power to play second base, which is largely why Hampson fell to the third round of his draft despite three years of strong performance.

He’s hit for more power in pro ball than he ever did in college, probably because Long Beach’s marine layer makes it more difficult to hit for power there, and also because the Rockies affiliates are all launching pads. It’s hard to conclude that Hampson’s minor league power output (.457 SLG, mostly via doubles and triples) won’t continue because his future home is going to be Coors Field. He has also stolen way more bases as a pro than he did in college, peaking with 51 steals in 2017, and 38 last year. Rockies prospects are encouraged to run, but Hampson is indeed a 70 runner and will add value on big league basepaths. Though it’s unclear what the Rockies will do about the Daniel Murphy–Ian Desmond–Ryan McMahon logjam that spills over into second base (not to mention Brendan Rodgers’ recent call-up), Hampson seems like a good bet to be a solid everyday player for someone.

Like clockwork, Lambert has taken his turn in a Rockies minor league rotation every fifth (or sixth, or seventh, depending on off days) day since he signed. He’s also a robotic strike-thrower and has walked just 5% of hitters he has faced as a pro. Lambert has basically been this way since high school, when he was just too advanced, even for SoCal high schoolers. Nothing he throws is plus, though you could argue that the fastball is due to its odd approach angle. It sits in the mid-90s and lives in the top part of the strike zone, riding in on the hands of righties. His changeup is average, flashing above, and Lambert has long deployed it with veteran cunning, and he’ll run it back onto the glove-side corner of the plate for looking strikes.

He’s a hyper-efficient strike-thrower with a four-pitch mix, a high-probability fourth starter with little likely upside beyond that.

Rolison was a big name out of high school, reportedly turning down seven figures to go to Ole Miss knowing he would be an eligible sophomore due to his age. He had an up-and-down sophomore spring. Rolison came out of the chute blazing hot and had top-10 pick buzz for the first month of the season, then slowly regressed. Scouts thought he needed a delivery adjustment in to make him more direct to the plate, a way to improve his fastball control. They also thought he was too reliant on his curveball. To that point, hitters late in the season would sit on the pitch, knowing he had trouble locating his fastball and that he barely threw his changeup. It led to some bad outings, including one at South Carolina where he allowed 11 runs.

Since being drafted, Rolison has worked more frequently with all three of his pitches, throwing 66% of his pitches for strikes, and his velocity has remained in the 92-94 range even as he throws every fifth day (mostly) rather than once a week. He could end up with three above-average pitches and be a No. 4 or No. 4/5 starter.

The caveat surrounding amateur prospects like the one Welker was — big-bodied, risk of first base-only, limited power projection — is that they need to hit all the way up the minor league ladder for teams to value them, and Welker has done exactly that. He’s a .333 career hitter and has above-average raw power that manifests itself as doubles, largely because Welker is a free swinger who relies on his feel to hit to make contact rather than hunting pitches he can drive. He remains a tenuous bet to stay at third base, at best projecting as a 50 glove there for some teams, while he’s below average in our estimation. He’s a college-aged hitter performing at Double-A, and is a summer top 100 candidate if a majority of teams start to consider him a viable third baseman.

Vilade has not developed as expected to this point. We anticipated he’d move quickly to third base in pro ball, but hit for enough power to overcome it. Instead, he has held serve a shortstop and only just begun to see time at third, but has struggled to get to his considerable raw power in games. His lower half usage has improved, but Vilade’s bat still has downward entry into the hitting zone and he doesn’t extend well through contact. He has a nearly 50% groundball rate as a pro and ends up pushing a lot of contact the other way. There’s ceiling here because of Vilade’s shot to stay at short and adjust his way into game power, but there’s a low floor if he moves to third and can’t make tweaks.