Braylon Doughty and Joey Oakie profile as future members of the Cleveland Guardians pitching staff. The former boasts a 50 FV and ranks as the organization’s top prospect, while the latter is graded as a 40+ FV who ranks 16th. Each is 20-year-old right-hander who was drafted out of the prep ranks — Doughty 36th overall in 2024, Oakie in the third round that same summer. Their ceilings are high. As Eric Longenhagen and Brendan Gawlowski teamed up to write last winter, “Doughty was arguably the most polished high school pitcher in the 2024 draft,” and “Oakie signed for first-round money [as] a power pitcher with enviable traits.”
Eric Binder knows them as well as anyone. A member of the Guardians’ front office for more than a decade, the now-assistant general manager plays a prominent role in one of baseball’s most well-regarded pitching programs. He has previously shared thoughts on the promising youngsters here at FanGraphs, doing so for a Sunday Notes column in September of last year.
An update was in order when the AL Central champions visited Fenway Park during the final week of this year’s regular season. Binder was in attendance — ditto other members of the organization’s brain trust, as clinching the division title was imminent — so I took the opportunity to learn where the duo stood in terms of their development paths. To wit, how did their seasons unfold, and what are their primary focuses going forward? Read the rest of this entry »
Hello everybody. Lighter queue today so far, guess that means it's the offseason. We'll see if it picks or if we have a shorter one today.
Metsox
How much has Zion Rose juiced his stock in Arizona?
Brendan Gawlowski
For us? Enough to go from where we had him in the draft to somewhere on our T100.
millvillemeltdown
which prospects have elicited the loudest uncontrolled reaction from you? shock, awe, dismay, hilarity?
Brendan Gawlowski
I'm relatively even keeled but I did just start laughing when Yanquiel Fernandez hit a fly ball 47 feet over the foul pole, an ump called it foul, and then he hit one even further out to right center on the next pitch.
Brendan Gawlowski
And also when Modesto broke an eighth inning, 0-0 deadlock when a wild pitch bounced off a catcher's shin guard and into the dugout and allowed the only run of the game to score.
Brendan Gawlowski
And when Juan Guerrero started playing hackey sack with his glove in left field as his pitcher came set.
David Wiers
I'm an 880ish rating. Is that Rookie Ball?
Brendan Gawlowski
That's probably 60th percentile or so on Chess.com? Sounds pretty good to me.
opifijikl
You mentioned somewhere (I think) that the Red Sox list was to be released earlier this offseason. Usually it’s a little later. Is this change due to feedback or something else? Either way, I’m looking forward to it
Brendan Gawlowski
Nope, just picked it out of a hat. Metaphorically, at least.
rfilla
Would you rather have a lineup of 9 Chandler Simpsons or 9 Yandys?
Brendan Gawlowski
Would be fascinating to see the 9 Simpsons play the 9 Yandys. Think I'm team Yandy but what a mess of a game that would be.
David Wiers
Is Angel Genao just blocked all across the infield to the point the Guards try him in LF, or is the bat just not playable there?
Brendan Gawlowski
I would view his situation as more of a temporary obstacle than something where you need to consider switching his position. Could be a trade chip, could be a Rocchio replacement, could be a second baseman and you move Bazzana.
Daron
Brewers LHP Wande Torres threw the 3rd most MiLB innings in their org this season. Do you think he profiles as a starter long term?
Brendan Gawlowski
Not out of the question but he's not very loose/fluid and he's already walking a fair few hitters. 80/20, 90/10 relief outcome.
Sir Nerdlington
What's one scout friendly change to the CBA that you'd like to see happen? (I know they're not at the table, but a change where one of the consequences is more human intelligence.)
Brendan Gawlowski
Pushing the draft back to June.
Brendan Gawlowski
To the user who keeps asking whether Players from Country Y are motivated and those from Country Z lazy: I'm not publishing that for what I assume are obvious reasons.
R.B. Urgess
Awesome stuff, struggled with command seems to be Jarlin Susana's AFL report on repeat… how does an organization forecast development with a prospect like that?
Brendan Gawlowski
They'll be kicking around various paths forward. Coaches and dev staff will have ideas on what they want him to do physically and how likely it is that change X can facilitate outcome Y (better command in this case).
Brendan Gawlowski
In Susana's particular case, that will likely involve a tailored plan for the winter (workout regimen, throwing program, etc.)
Brendan Gawlowski
And then an assessment of where he's at come spring training
war2d2
Would Bazzana’s bat play anywhere but 2B? Seems like a “good, not great” player if he makes it long term at 2B, but does he hit enough (or field enough) for anywhere else on the dirt?
Brendan Gawlowski
If he's a ~110 wRC+ bat over the long haul, that could play in a corner. I'm not saying "move Bazzana," more "I don't think you'll see Genao move to LF, here are a few ways he could get in the lineup without doing that."
Cromulent
Not a prospect but from an evaluation standpoint which role do you think Grant Taylor is best suited for: starter, closer or Andy Ashby?
Brendan Gawlowski
I think he can start, and given Chicago's rotation situation, it makes sense to give him a shot. The other two are nice fallback options.
BallparkFan
If anything, what under the radar things are taking place in player development systems?
Brendan Gawlowski
I think if you're here and subscribed to FG, you're probably pretty plugged in and aware of a lot of the things going on. Holistic athletic assessments, tailored and increasingly sophisticated strength and conditioning training, bat handle/barrel shape experimentation, pitch design labs…
Schu1719
You, understandably, wrote up Po-Chun Lin as a total wild card on the Mariners list last offseason. Any updated info on him now that he's pitched on the CPX?
Brendan Gawlowski
Please check back next week, I don't have a great answer for you this very second and complex stuff requires a little more legwork than I can do with a chat going on.
jose luis
What strengths can a farm director bring to a major league clubhouse?
Brendan Gawlowski
People management. Farm directors have to get so many different types of people and personalities (coaches, players, trainers; new school and old school; native English speakers and people still learning; front office folks; etc.) motivated and swimming in the same direction. It's a different challenge than managing a team of major leaguers and handling the media and whatnot, but if you're good at people management, I can buy that that skill could translate to a managerial setting.
Big Fan
When do you expect list season to kick off? I check twelve times a day for the updated Braves list : )
Brendan Gawlowski
Hopefully next week. But sounds like you could use a second sneak peak.
Luis Guanipa: Guanipa was a $2.5 million international signee out of Venezuela in the 2023 class. Despite the bonus, the 20-year-old is neither especially toolsy nor projectable, and the contours to his profile are similar to what they were a year ago. He makes a lot of contact (77% overall, 84% in zone last year) but it’s not especially authoritative. He tends to swing inside the ball and generates a lot of opposite field contact. Guanipa has average bat speed and is only able to consistently pull offspeed pitches that hang over the middle or inner part of the plate. His approach and swing decisions are generally solid but he started chasing more spin off the plate this past year and hardly walked at all after a late-season promotion to High-A.
Defensively, Guanipa’s tape is a mixed bag, with a blend of good reads off the bat and drifty routes that sometimes get him in trouble. He has the look of a guy who can play but not excel in center, and if anything he looks a half step slower than he did at last check in. There’s still enough hit skill and defensive versatility for him to grow into a fourth outfielder role, but some of the strongest parts of his game look a little dicier than they did in the low minors, and he’s correspondingly fallen a bit in this year’s update.
InsertWittyNameHere
What are your “if the lockout lasts too long here’s what I can write about” article ideas?
Brendan Gawlowski
Eric and I are not going to struggle for content.
Brendan Gawlowski
In an ideal world where all lists are published and there's no MLB, we've still got the minors, foreign leagues, colleges, etc. to follow. And I'd love to do more PD/scouting articles like the one I had last month about pro scouting.
Big Fan
Not a prospect question, but I keep reading about how the Brewers are good at bat design. Can you explain that to us, and particularly, why other teams can't copy it? I always think objective analysis is a lot easier to agree on than the more subjective analysis that so much of scouting is built on.
Brendan Gawlowski
I have no idea how good they are at it relative to anybody else but they're not alone in experimenting here. I can't find it but I thought I read something a couple years back about Julio trying various bat handles and actually not choosing the one that led to the very highest max EV because he didn't like the way it felt? Is that out there somewhere?
Bud Smith
What do you think is the biggest jump or fall a player has ever taken in an evaluation cycle? Have you ever bumped a 35+ to a 55+ in one season? Or the reverse?
Brendan Gawlowski
Better question for Eric, since he's been doing this forever… Plenty of really young guys will go from off the radar to the 40+ category in any given year. Breyner Figuereo with Texas just might end up in that territory.
Brendan Gawlowski
Conversely, there are a few guys who got money in the DSL who start as 40/40+ types that just aren't good. Kendry Martinez, Cristopher Polanco, etc.
munson burner
When it comes to the draft, are there prospects that you like who are likely to fail because of the team that drafted them? Can you name any situations in the past when you were upset for the player because of the team that drafted them?
Brendan Gawlowski
Of course. We try to comment when we think a player goes to a particularly good spot for their talents or vice versa.
Brendan Gawlowski
Too pithy to say "every time Colorado drafts a pitcher" but not by much.
Fun-Hating Dork
I mean, the Brewers were very involved in the most famous "bat design" incident (?) in recent baseball history: last year's "torpedo bat" opening weekend controversy.
Brendan Gawlowski
Came from the Yankees, but yes good example
Big Fan
Since you mentioned at the outset that the queue was a little lighter, can you take us behind the scenes of one of your chats? Are you cross referencing notes with stat pages with video, etc., or is it as simple as the questions come in, you pick one and type an answer and move on?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sure. First though, you guys have picked up the pace in a big way, tons of stuff in there now. But it's pretty simple, I see all the questions that have been asked, I try to select mostly ones I can answer relatively quickly but I also have my spreadsheets open and will watch a little video if there's a guy I'm familiar with but need a refresh or a new look. The Wande Torres question, for example, I pulled some video of him and had that in the b/g for a few minute while I took other q's. If there's something interesting that I'm unprepared for, I'll ask folks to come back the next week and try to do a little research for them between now and then.
Brendan Gawlowski
I've also heard some feedback that my answers can be terse; I don't mean them to be, I just wanna answer more rather than less.
willt
Are there any pitchers you or Eric have discussed hundo'ing based alone off pitch shapes or traits without the requisite sample size or game performance
Brendan Gawlowski
Discuss, maybe, but we generally want to see guys throw a little bit before we go nuts. Briggs McKenzie is a good example. We like him, I'd put a mid-rotation grade on him if I were scouting for a team… for the 100, let's see him hold his stuff over longer stretches first.
Anonymous Member #46
Are there any prospect types that are benefiting from the consolidation of the minor leagues?
Brendan Gawlowski
The handful of guys that are boat racing through are perhaps getting to the big leagues faster than they would have in the old days of ten years ago.
beanbong
Caminiti has seemed poised for a breakout for a couple years now, is he someone who gets a long runway to develop a viable offspeed? If the change doesn't come around, is there still enough stuff to 50 him?
Brendan Gawlowski
CH looks better year over year. He's one we have to talk through but I think he makes it.
fincampbell05
Any surprise 50s for the Red Sox list? How close are Godbout, Primera, Delzine?
Brendan Gawlowski
Delzine may just sneak on there. Primera PTC I think, Godbout I'm a little down on relative to last May.
tdmoc
>Bud Smith 11:40 AM What do you think is the biggest jump or fall a player has ever taken in an evaluation cycle? Have you ever bumped a 35+ to a 55+ in one season? Or the reverse?
iirc Vance Honeycutt went from 2025 45 FV to 2026 HM
(checks board) and now he's back to 40 FV!
Brendan Gawlowski
There are probably even more dramatic movers out there, too.
pronouncedsigh
How do you see the white sox handling Smith/Schultz/McDougal next year? Rotation? Bullpen? AAA?
Brendan Gawlowski
Just speculation, but Schultz gets every chance to start, Smith is the relief ace, McDougal less of a factor.
Brian Martin
Sebastian Walcott offense showing up in AFL stat line. If he makes it to the majors in 2027, what defensive position(s) would you expect to see? And what is a reasonable guess for how much shortstop he plays in his career ahead: more or less than 450 innings of major league shortstop?
Brendan Gawlowski
That's a fun over/under. I'll take the over, because that's not really all that many games. That said, if/when he makes it in 2027, I would guess it's in the outfield just b/c Seager is still around and productive.
Daron
Do you think there is any chance a version of the Rule 5 draft takes place at some point this offseason? If the likelihood is low will it materially impact team's 40-man roster decisions over the next two weeks?
Brendan Gawlowski
Chance, sure, doesn't seem likely. Team behavior would change if they knew one way or the other.
rfilla
How does the MiLB ball vs the MLB ball impact your evaluation of pitchers? Do all pitchers lose x% of their stuff, or does it only affect certain types of pitchers? On a related note, is Jacob Odle a Dude?
Brendan Gawlowski
Good question. Does not seem to effect all pitchers evenly, seems to effect the overhand/carrying fastball guys more than others but need to do more work to tell if that's anecdotal or a trend.
T-Swimm
Is Arias Gleyber Torres with better defense or is that just me?
Brendan Gawlowski
That comp doesn't light me up.
Brendan Gawlowski
But, if he posts a 113 wRC+ over his first nine years like Torres did, he's a star.
Chase Shiflet
Any chance Bodine or Gillen debut in 2027?
Brendan Gawlowski
Good chance, particularly for Bodine, who's already in Triple-A.
lmb2020
Will there be any fringy free agents that jump the gun and sign overseas just to avoid hits to development time?
Brendan Gawlowski
Speculation, obviously, but I'd buy that the uncertainty could push guys on the fence to take the leap. Maybe a few more Dan Straily types available for KBO clubs this year.
andecobi
What do you make of Bishop Letson after the way he finished his season?
I don't have any strong opinions off the cuff, it's the kind of thing that will have me looking for changes between September and July.
Brendan Gawlowski
But also, guys do this. I bought BIG on Case Williams throwing harder and missing a ton of bats down the stretch in 2022. Next spring, the velo uptick was gone and he was Case Williams again.
Graham Lewis
Listening to you on There R Giants right now. How many other orgs are lucky enough to have someone covering their farm system so comprehensively?
Brendan Gawlowski
Roger does a really good job, he's plugged in and is on top of all sorts of stuff. You and I hear a rustle in the wind, he hears that Samir Chires is throwing harder in a bullpen session.
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't want to miss anyone, so forgive errors of omission, but obviously Sox Prospects do a great job with Boston. Scott Lucas covers Texas and is a friend I've run into countless times on the backfields. Matt Winkelman on the Phillies. There are others, again, forgive my scrambled brain right now.
Brendan Gawlowski
MadFriars
WonderWall
How do you think about choice between having the multi-inning super reliever vs keep trying them at a starting (Aaron Ashby)? To phrase it differently, when do you just accept that you have a stud reliever who can cover multiple innings?
Brendan Gawlowski
If every start seems to start well and then turn into a quagmire around the third or fourth, you've got a good candidate.
Anonymous Member #46
What franchises would you anticipate most aggressively gambling that the Rule V draft doesn't take place?
Brendan Gawlowski
Franchises should not be gambling, it's against the rules.
Brendan Gawlowski
(More rooting than gambling, I'd imagine. Teams with deep systems, a crowded 40, and a ton of guys eligible for the R5. TB/MIL/SF come to mind)
Sammy Sooser
Looking at stuff, build, projection, delivery, athleticism, command, compete, holding velo, age x level, everything, am I crazy for thinking Zazueta is the best RHP prospect the Dodgers have had in like 20 years?
Brendan Gawlowski
He's up there. The tricky part is that we have the benefit of hindsight on a few good ones that haven't worked out. Like, Bobby Miller was a very good prospect, River Ryan we're obviously high on still, etc.
Sammy Sooser
re: Case Williams and velo jumps, Landon Knack hitting a hundo in spring training feels like a lifetime ago now
Brendan Gawlowski
Maybe the prospect with the widest range of radar readings I've encountered from the first to second time I saw him
Brendan Gawlowski
A good reminder that, while you can't/shouldn't ignore the gun, you shouldn't chase it either.
Fangraphs Man
Re: Grant Taylor- James has written a few times that Brian Bannister has, when talking about Taylor, brought up how his extreme extension is similar to Glasnow, and seemed to imply that it may lead to similar injury concerns with a starter's workload (especially on shoulder/lat which he's already had trouble with). Is this a concern you share, both for Taylor specifically and more generally as a potential issue for high-extension pitchers?
Fangraphs Man
Bannister on Taylor: Guys that pitch at max extension are kind of in that danger zone…
"There's just an added level of stress involved versus somebody who pitches more in the range of their physical height. If they have six-five extension and they're six-five, I think everything is operating in more of a middle, neutral range of the bell curve. It's just an observation and I do a ton of studies on my own, because a lot of this you have to operate in theory because there's not huge sample sizes. Like [Tyler] Glasnow [who has similarly high extension], when you look at the track record of innings pitched — and I have a lot of respect for him and his talent — there's a lot of seasons where he threw like, 60 innings. There's just not an extended track record of throwing 100-200 innings."
Brendan Gawlowski
Great question, I have no answer, but something interesting to think about. Might ask around this winter and see if there's an article there somewhere…
Brendan Gawlowski
Think I'm going to shut it down here. Thanks for coming as always and we'll do it again next week. In the meantime, be well.
Liam Keating/News-Leader / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Tai Peete has changed for the better since being acquired by the Cardinals from the Mariners as part of a three-team trade back in February. At least from a statistical standpoint. In 2025, the now 21-year-old outfielder left the yard 19 times for Seattle’s High-A affiliate, but he also fanned at a 30.6% clip while batting a lackluster .217 with a 79 wRC+. Those results were reflected in our prospect rankings. Peete fell out of our Top 100 entering the 2026 season, with his FV dropping two grades from a 50 to a far-less-bullish 40+.
This season was a different story. Acclimating well to his new environs, Peete put up a 126 wRC+ and a .296/.359/.549 slash line across 300 plate appearances between High-A Peoria and Double-A Springfield. (He also had 10 hitless at-bats rehabbing in the Florida Complex League.) Moreover, he lowered his strikeout rate to 26.9%. While not exactly Luis Arraez territory, the improved contact rate was a meaningful step in the right direction. As Eric Longenhagen wrote in last week’s Arizona Fall League Midseason Check-In, Peete’s “strikeouts have stabilized after they looked like they might be his undoing early in his career.”
The lefty swinger has continued doing damage since arriving in the desert. Over 72 plate appearances with the Peoria Javelinas, Peete has posted a .355/.431/.661 slash line, with 11 of his 22 hits going for extra bases. Taking ample advantage of his 60-grade speed, Peete has legged out four three-baggers and swiped 14 bags.
An unpublished observation from Eric merits mention. When I asked our lead prospect evaluator for an update a few days ago, he told me that Peete is “kind of in the Garrett Mitchell mold physically and swing-wise. He has posted some plus-plus run times this fall. Really seems fun to be around, too. Probably in that 45+ FV area for us now.” Read the rest of this entry »
Happy Friday, party people. We're slated to get something like 2-to-3 inches of rain this weekend in Phoenix and it's pouring at the FanGraphs Desert Vista Compound right already. Looking forward to a weekend of Emo/Shoegaze writing like when I was in PA. For now, we chat.
I don't believe so. Still projects as a good everyday infielder, either SS or 3B, who's top 20 at his position. Good get for them. Folks can watch him most days playing in LIDOM for Gigantes. He and Roldy Brito are often in the starting lineup.
Brian Reinhart
Candy corn?
Eric Longenhagen
I'll eat it. It's not high on my pref list but I'm always curious enough to try it again. Especially the pumpkins.
Daniel
Given the Yankees aging core and the likelihood that Kilby isn’t a SS long term, do you see him being a guy they push pretty aggressively provided he continues to hit as he moves up?
Eric Longenhagen
I think so, it's reasonable to expect him to be promoted at roughly the same pace Lombard was if he keeps hitting. I think them sending him here after he barely played this year was fairly aggressive and he's thrived. Wouldn't chock me if he starts at Hudson Valley.
hankirons
As a Mets fan, what happened to Jacob Reimer this year? Between he and Clifford it feels like the corner bats we thought were close maybe aren't coming at all. Or is that too harsh?
Eric Longenhagen
Clifford was always going to be flawed in a way that left you disappointed, assuming you bought into peak expectations 2-ish years ago. His reasonable outcome was always more of a platoon bat. Reimer I was in on and remain on to a degree. He's better than his injury-altered 2026 statline, not just betting that he'll be better when healthy but looking at his underlying data, which is more favorable than his surface output…
Eric Longenhagen
The problem with Reimer is he's maxed out, tightly wound corner guy. If he's gonna K a quarter of the time and have roughly average power, does that really play in a meaningful way? I think it plays some, but not as a top 20 player at 1B if he ends up there alone.
nuxie
Position changes- rainel to third is that a real thing- Jesus made where does he play? Seems odd that he only played ss this year- seems like they’re committed to Pratt at short
Eric Longenhagen
I guess I'd wanna see Rainiel play third base before declaring yes or no. He's a heavier kid but built a lot like Max Muncy, who has been able to do it well enough to stay at 3B and moonlight at 2B for a while. I think a position change is what gets his bat in the lineup soonest because he otherwise still has so much work to do as a catcher.
Eric Longenhagen
Made I agree they should have (or at least should in LIDOM) see what happens with him at 3B. Pratt is the better defender. Joey Ortiz and David Hamilton should not be blocking a potential 30-homer 3B.
ajleff
Prediction for where Skubal lands?
Eric Longenhagen
I'll go off the board a bit and say Braves
Eric Longenhagen
They have a lot of money coming off the books in the next few years, Acuna and Sale and Profar, Albies, Suarez… it adds up. Kinda wonder if there's a Ketel/Acuna change of scenery trade in here somewhere? One more year of Albies makes that less a fit.
nuxie
Any names popping up from either instructs or the bridge league?
Eric Longenhagen
Instructs ended a couple weeks ago. Most of the good players are guys you already know. I thought Angeibel Gomez looked good, the Giants infielders, Grindlinger, Comeau… You should take a peek at my pieces from that window of time I wrote a ton as it was going on.
ajleff
Prediction for the largest change to MiLB/draft/amateur to come out of the lockout?
Eric Longenhagen
I think we will get an agreement before that stuff is ironed out. They'll say "here's the deal, let's play baseball." and then will hammer out draft/int'l stuff as an afterthought in the weeks following.
Domingo Ayala
Does John Peck have starting shortstop upside? He kind of came out of nowhere but he has some nice underlying numbers, including his player comps on Savant.
Eric Longenhagen
I like him but consider him more of a good utility type rather than a first division regular.
tdmoc
does Vance Honeycutt make the main list next year? OPS and EVs look pretty, but he's still K-ing ~30% with "empty" (non-competitive) walks
Eric Longenhagen
Back on there. The defense will allow him to play a role. Crushed for me yesterday, hit a ball 108 to dead CF. I agree the K's are too scary to project him as a consistent 2+ WAR guy but he'll play a role.
richwp01
" Bonemer entered the AFL season as the one of this group I was worried I’d come away feeling more skeptical about because of how much whiffing he did during the regular season. Instead, I think his power is weaponized by sufficient barrel feel. He is likely to be a left field-only defender in the big leagues, but he could have output similar to Teoscar Hernández." His arm not strong enough for RF? Is he just in center to have easier reads?
Eric Longenhagen
Not a natural thrower from the OF whatsoever.
thundacat707
Does Seaver King start next season in the MLB? What are your thoughts on his ceiling?
Eric Longenhagen
I think Washington will look to maximize years of control there. I was super high on King coming out of college, became pretty skeptical at the end of 2025 because he had zero ability to pull the ball (I'm not a "pull everything!" guy but I do think it's scary when you can't do it at all) and was really shaky on defense. He had an awesome season, and needs a re-eval from scratch this list cycle. Washington's new regime absolutely made their hitters better right away and I'm willing to bet he's a true arrow up guy rather than a product of this year's wacky minor league offensive environment.
Eric Longenhagen
Wildly close lightning strikes here, like cartoon sound effect lightning.
You should consider it a lateral move I guess, id have to know way more about your league and roster to give you a cogent answer.
Pirates Hurdles
I'm curious how to best deal with a bad year of production for younger prospect bats – guys like Jansel Luis or Gabriel Rodriguez? How do you weight production on toolsy guys in full season ball?
Eric Longenhagen
It's tough. You look for reasons to give them the benefit of the doubt. Were they young for the level, were they injured, does the surface production deviate from the underlying data in any way?
abravesfan25
ATL farmhands Owen Carey and/or Isaiah Drake make any notable impressions during in-person looks in the AFL?
Eric Longenhagen
Drake can really really run, he has a RB's physicality. Can he hit enough to be anything more than a specialist? He has an interesting data profile (huge launch, roughly average contact) but visually his feel to his is crude. Carey is on time to pull, probably LF only defender (30 arm), like him as an eventual corner platoon bat, though it'll depend on how strong he gets. They're both prospects, but not likely impact guys.
doughboy
i know this is likely the million dollar question, but is Bryce Rainer swing something that can be fixable in offseason to return to hos rookie season contact rates?
Eric Longenhagen
I don't think it's something you actively tinker with yet, I think he might shorten up naturally as he deals with failure and is forced to adjust.
metties
How do you balance (your time, focus, etc.) making sure you nail your evals on top 100 dudes with having 1200+ reports on prospects?
Eric Longenhagen
It's the toughest thing, honestly. Like yesterday I went to Peoria with Laurila. We went earlier than I would have on my own because Laurila interviews players, and that happens well before the game. Then it's nearly impossible to focused on writing in the press box because people in there wanna socialize (which I get), then Patrick Reilly was useful to see for four innings in perfect weather, then nobody else threw strikes and we had like 24 combined walks. I'd have rather been doing anything but watching three pitchers be required to finish an inning. But once your'e in the bowl with the scouts it's kind of a faux pas to leave early, they don't know you're going back to the box to do more work. Anyway, yes this part of it has been the toughest thing for me to wrangle in ten years of doing this. Marrying the depth I'm capable of and the depth that is a differentiator for us as a site (along with the writing quality imo) with the broad, Taylor Swift type tastes of the reading and listening audience that wants everything done right now and could care less about the 40s and 35+ guys.
rfilla
For a dollar: Which outfielder in the Cardinals system will have the highest peak season WAR? Walker, Baez, Peete, Frias, Condon?
Eric Longenhagen
I think Frias.
apeloton
Chase Harlan is down as a guy you want to see more of this fall – do you have any specifics you want to assess with him or more just a general get eyes on?
Eric Longenhagen
I just want more looks at him playing defense to feel better about where we project him. The league average wRC+ at 3B this year was 98. At 1B it was 111. Where he plays defense really matters to how he stacks among his peers.
abravesfan25
Congrats to the Brewers! Do you think they'll realize more out of their side of the Peralta trade (Sproat, Jett Williams) in 2027, or is that shaping up as a lose-lose trade?
Eric Longenhagen
I still think Sproat will be good. Jett will be a role-player.
triplesandtea
Any chance we get another visual scouting explanation series? Or perhaps a few ABs/plays from one player where you break down scouting them from the basics (what do you see mechanically) to the more advanced?
Eric Longenhagen
Yeah I want to do a video podcast series that takes you through the list-making processes.
InsertWittyNameHere
Any flawed prospect that should consider switching to football to replace Tanner McKee? Or play O-line? Or call plays?
Eric Longenhagen
How has Elijah Green not started playing football at Georgia yet?
ADoctolero
What's the next "thing" you see teams like the Dodgers, Brewers and Rays doing from either a development or player acquisition standpoint, that will cause the rest of the league to play copy cat?
Eric Longenhagen
Brewers tailoring bat design to the player's swing.
ahughes584
Is Axel Plaz's bat good enough for him to be a regular? Is Rafael Flores' bat good enough that he plays daily for the Pirates?
Eric Longenhagen
Plaz is Botero Jorge Alfaro. Flores will play a big role, yeah. How many catchers really play every day anymore? It's only the top couple guys. They almost always share time and I think Flores will, too, but thrive as a hitter in that role catching 80 games rather than 120.
abravesfan25
How has Brooks Auger looked in the AFL? Still a viable path to being a starter?
Eric Longenhagen
Built like a starter, moves like a starter, commands it like a reliever. Think in that org he's a swingman.
Cromulent
The question about Reimer and Clifford makes me wonder: aren’t Baty and Vientos still ahead of those guys in the (young and at least somewhat unproven) Mets corner infield queue? Or is the cement dry there?
Eric Longenhagen
Definitely stacked ahead of Reimer/Clifford. Ronny Mo, too. It's a deep group, they 've given themselves lots of bites at the apple. Some of these guys regress, some progress, and when you have enough of them around you can capture the peak years of the best couple guys and do okay.
rfilla
How do you evaluate a young, high upside, projectable prospect who misses 1-2 years due to injury? Yairo Padilla, for example. Should we assume his development "paused" or is it more likely that he's been progressing off the field?
Eric Longenhagen
It's tough, but Ethan Salas is proof of concept that these guys shouldn't simply be dismissed because of lost time.
Domingo Ayala
Can Chandler Simpson improve his arm? Very unnatural throwing motion
Eric Longenhagen
Nah, feels like he's just in 20/30 area and you live with it.
Gerry McDonald
Jake Cook didn't have much hitting experience before the draft. Is he developing as you would expect? How did he look in Arizona?
Eric Longenhagen
I love this guy. Has run sub-3.9 for me multiple times, which is like Billy Hamilton fast. Except this guy has more size than Hamilton and is relatively green as a hitter. Think he has a chance to be pretty good. At the very least he's going to be super fun to watch develop, or try to.
zapper
Has Zion Rose passed Burress with his AFL performance?
Eric Longenhagen
Burress looked good during instructs and I wish they had AFL'd him rather than Guedez. I think I'd still take Burress, just a more explosive athlete in the box.
Brendan Smith
How do you see the looming lockout affecting the pro hiring cycle and any player development efforts around spring training/opening month of MiLB season?
Eric Longenhagen
I think some of the more budget-conscious teams will have fewer additions to ops this offseason. Same as COVID and the last lockout.
gettwobrute79
What’s more likely for Derek Curiel? He’s able to stick in center or develop enough power to be a regular? As a Bucs fan, I’d love both, but both feels like a tall ask.
Eric Longenhagen
Let's see what his body looks like in February. These guys can get in the weight room in their early 20s and get pretty strong pretty fast.
Hazmat Corntail
Who are you most interested in seeing how they develop further – if you think they can – now that they’ve reached the majors?: Spencer Jones, Victor Mesa, Cole Carrigg
Eric Longenhagen
Carrigg is the toolsiest of that group.
Brendan Smith
Not a question-video podcast series for the lists would be must watch!
Eric Longenhagen
I've had this idea for a long time but clearing music and video rights could be a nightmare. I obviously shoot a ton of my own video but sometimes broadcast footage is just better for showing what it is I want to show… we'll see.
bubbles
Where would Miguel Hernandez have gone in the 26 draft of he were eligible? When looking at his metrics, he seems impressive and I prefer him over the Cards actual draftee Condon.
Eric Longenhagen
Good question, Bubs. I think he'd be a 700k type in the draft. Sub-70% contact rate guy is scary for Low-A, good plate discipline and power for his age. There's something there but not a first round something
Jeremy Fox
Can you try to develop a pitcher for an Aaron Ashby-type role?
Eric Longenhagen
I think you develop them as starters and then it becomes clear their best role is this Ashby type thing. Grant Taylor, etc.
Can you give us an idea of how to think about AFL as a level of competition? Both in terms of "who they're up against" and also "who should be sent and who isn't ready"?
Eric Longenhagen
High-A pitchers in a Cal League hitting environment. The bullpens here are always bad. I don't know how to solve for this because the pitchers sent here are almost always sent here because they were hurt during the regular season.
Eric Longenhagen
Okay friends, great chat today. I am speaking at First Pitch Arizona next week during our scheduled chat time, so I will need to either change day/time next week. Be sure to check the chat schedule on the site for updates, I'll try to come up with a solution that is creative and fun (like maybe chatting live during Fall Stars?)
Hello everybody. Good sports day today, Serie A is going already, some League Cup to follow. AFL, of course, and apparently another baseball game of modest import tonight. Should be fun. Let's get to it.
Darren Knowles
Thanks for the chat! Thoughts on Zion Rose? Eric mentioned wanting to see Zion Rose try some CF—any idea if the Royals plan to try that out?
Brendan Gawlowski
I liked Rose and agree that it'd be interesting to see him in CF. Not sure yet if the Royals are going to explore that, it's on my list to ask when I get to their system.
ADoctolero
What's your take on Buster Posey essentially hand-waving away any potential injury to a Giants pitcher in the name of improving their stuff? They definitely need to do that as an organization, but I'm not sure it's the best idea to say out loud to the media that they're going to push guys to a breaking point and oh well if they break.
Brendan Gawlowski
Do you have a link?
Nickname (required)
What do you make of Tai Peete's AFL? Is he in the Cardinals T10 ? Is he a future T100 guy?
Brendan Gawlowski
Obviously he's crushing it in Arizona. He's a guy I'm rooting for, but I don't think a whole lot has changed about him or the profile. He's a high risk player with a lot of swing and miss risk on spin and big upside if it all clicks. Top 10 in the system, everyday projection for me as a scout… Does that translate to the Top 100? Instinct is no, but we'll see how it shakes out.
BKhipsterball
Do you miss ash bats? The sound of contact just doesn't hit the same anymore
Brendan Gawlowski
I miss the aesthetic, too. If the league ever decides to get serious about making it easier to hit the ball but harder to hit it over the fence, ash bats could have a role to play.
dshtern1
Enjoyed Eric's writeup of Dax Kilby. Who do you like more between Dax and Yostin Pena in the Yankees system and why?
Brendan Gawlowski
Dax. In part because I think Dax is perfectly fine at short.
eccentricatlfan
Pretty sure I haven’t asked it yet (and apologies if I have), but for Deyvison De Los Santos, is there much to be read into his contact rate improvement at AAA, or is this just improvements from repeating the level and that there’s not really a meaningful change in his profile at the plate?
Brendan Gawlowski
It's up a little bit, but 73% for a bat-only guy in his sophomore year of AAA isn't great. Still projects as a bench bat/Asia masher.
mbushskbum
I am so enthused to see the Brewer – Rays WS (although as a Reds fan watching the Brewers success is a bit painful). I admire both organizations for combining Analytics, Scouting, and Player Development attached to a clear organizational philosophy. I think the Cardinals are well on their way to similar success. My Reds – well….. How to you evaluate combining those three arms and organizational philosophy. Is one more important than another in your view or is organizational philosophy that is most important supported by the three arms of success?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't really think about it in terms of one being more important than the others, you have to do all of it to be competitive, particularly if you can't spend your way out of lousy PD/scouting. The consequences for being complete dogshit analytically are enormous in a way that they don't seem to be for having the worst scouting/dev staffs, so in that sense… It's important not to be awful there. But at this point, I don't think the gap between the sixth and twenty-fourth best group analytically is all that big.
Eh, his comments seem fine. Everybody understands that this is where the game is at right now.
romananthonyglazer
I was surprised that Franklin Primera was not on the top 100 given his amazing performance so far on every level. What is there to be concerned about in Franklin's profile other than being in Single A
Brendan Gawlowski
His approach and long swing are going to be stress tested by better pitching/more velocity and he's not super projectable. I suspect he'll be a pick to click.
Nils
How do you know when a ranked prospect just has an off year vs a complete change in valuation? Thinking how Francisca went from a 45 here after the '24 season to not even a 35+ last year to now right back to 45 again.
Brendan Gawlowski
It can be tricky, and also hard to communicate what a down year means. Oftentimes when this happens, a player's ceiling doesn't change, but his odds of reaching it go down. That can shift a player down from an FV perspective.
Brendan Gawlowski
I would also say… Without placing a value judgment on it, because I think you can argue for either approach… I think Eric is more inclined to move a player's FV, and I'm more inclined to let things play out over a long period. These are tendencies rather than absolutes, but something to keep in mind as you read our lists this cycle.
romananthonyglazer
If Kristian Campbell was a prospect right now, what fv do you think he would have and what would change?
Brendan Gawlowski
40+ and glad I don't have to commit to that.
Rollie's Mustache
What would be the minor league level equivalency of AFL pitching quality? I see B-ref shows 5.85 ERA, 10K/9 and 6.5BB/9 as league averages. Is that like Cal League caliber? Or worse, Complex-type competition? Or is there no direct comparison here? Thx Brendan.
Brendan Gawlowski
It varies so much, the KBO isn't a bad comparison in that sense, from an overall talent perspective. The walk rates are very much of the complex, though.
BKhipsterball
Sell high on Gasser in dynasty after last night?
Brendan Gawlowski
If someone's willing to buy him as more than a no. 4, sure
millvillemeltdown
how controllable are diet/sleep/etc in the minor leagues? my understanding is the conditions are much worse which makes me suspect there are a lot of gains being left on the table
Brendan Gawlowski
Conditions are way better than they were 10 years ago. Some teams do a better job than others of procuring good housing/providing healthy meals, but even the worst are here are doing a lot more than was common in the early-mid 2010s.
Brendan Gawlowski
Of course, you're still dealing with teenagers and early 20 somethings and like everyone else at that age, a lot of them… will eat, drink, or sleep sub-optimally. That's just life.
jk0924
Why were you so low on Cam Cannarella and Brandon Compton? They both had a wrc+ of 149 and 156, and Cannarella is a consensus top 100 prospect on every other list in baseball. Are you guys going to change there grades for upcoming season?
Brendan Gawlowski
I think the reasons are clear from their writeups… It's fine to disagree. They both performed so well after publication that I definitely want to give them a fresh look, certainly possible that I was light, it happens. Cannarella's defense in particular is something that I agonized over at the time. The reputation didn't match the tape, but the tape is also not as good/reliable as the eye test in person. It's possible that if I saw him in the park, I would've felt differently.
WarrenJ
What's the next experimental rule in the AFL? Having the outfielders wear a ball and chain?
Brendan Gawlowski
I think the experimentation is broadly fine. I kind of liked watching outfielders need to go back on the ball. I'd tweak it so that they don't have to sit practically on the foul line, see what that looks like.
canderson20
Have any of the A's arms at the fall league caught your eye? I know Richardson has struck everyone out but I'm wondering if that's a blip or more to look forward to of him
Brendan Gawlowski
You named the one.
riibett
Hey Brendan! Eric said in his chat Briggs McKenzie looked like diet MadBum, what have your thoughts on him been?
Brendan Gawlowski
Should we just sneak peak a full blurb here?
Brendan Gawlowski
Why not
Brendan Gawlowski
McKenzie received Atlanta’s biggest bonus in the 2025 draft, signing for a cool $3 million. A year of pro instruction and weight training have worked wonders, as McKenzie has filled out considerably and added a few ticks of velocity. After operating either side of 90 mph this time last year, he now sits 92-94 while touching a little higher, and he could have more growth ahead of him.
McKenzie is an athletic and projectable lefty with a clean, if long, arm swing and a deceptive delivery. That motion helps his stuff and pitchability play up, and they’re already quite good to begin with. He can move his fastball up and to both sides of the plate, and run his long and tight sweeping breaking ball on and off the dish as well. His fading CH is inconsistent but flashed above average a few times during my look at him in the AFL.
The southpaw was only in Arizona because injuries took a big bite out of his 2026 campaign. He threw just 26 innings during the regular season, and at one point was on the 60 day IL with nerve irritation in his pitching elbow. While that sounds a little scary, he is back on the mound and looked no worse for wear in the Fall League. Projecting outward, McKenzie has mid-rotation traits. He has sufficient velocity and seems likely to develop the command. And while his arsenal is still a little lean, there’s plenty of time for him to add a second breaking ball or a two seamer. While we want to see more length and durability, and perhaps another tick on the gun, before we consider bumping him onto our Top 100 list, I anticipate he has another gear and he’ll be a Pick to Click for me this winter.
Jeremy Fox
There are orgs that are good at getting their young pitchers to add velocity, and orgs that are good at teaching their young pitchers new pitches. But are their orgs that are good at improving command?
Brendan Gawlowski
Boston was the first org that came to mind. Seattle's had some success here, too.
Darren Knowles
How does the Royals' Brooks Bryan look for Surprise? Thanks!
Brendan Gawlowski
Powerful. 35+/40 area as a thumper from the left side.
drummer66
What have you seen from Padres prospects in the Arizona Fall League? Specifically, Alex McCoy, Ty Harvey and Winyer Chourio. Francis Pena, too.
Brendan Gawlowski
McCoy and Harvey were the most interesting of the group. McCoy's power might just be an 80, that gives him a path to value even if he's pretty flawed everywhere else. Harvey's a good athlete behind the plate, like the bat speed. Suspect he'll stay in the Top 10 of that system even after a rough year in the Cal League. Says something about both him and SD's system.
millvillemeltdown
do you ever think about how traits/tools fit into a team context while scouting? eg. the arraez fit with the phillies, or like how a prospect might add defensive value to a poor defensive major league team
Brendan Gawlowski
All the time, usually more from a developmental context than immediate team need.
drplantwrench
considering his hot run, whats preventing arjun nimmala from taking the next step up the T100 rankings and/or FV rating?
Brendan Gawlowski
That he might not be a shortstop.
dashrockwell
Assuming the Red Sox get Franklin Arias in the lineup relatively near the beginning of 2027 (if there's a 2027), what's a reasonable expectation for him next year? Does his peak look something like Michael Young's good years with the Rangers? His EV numbers seem more "average to plus" than "25+ homers on the reg"
Brendan Gawlowski
Arias is a better defender. The dream here is Lindor Lite.
Phil
Re: changes to FV, how much of that difference with Eric (I understand it's a friendly disagreement) is scouting philosophy vs journalistic philosophy? Seems like player development is hard to report, because you can't just keep running articles that say, "still waiting to see how this plays out long-term." The internet wants content!
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't even know if it's a disagreement, more of an initial instinct. I don't know if there's a "right" answer to how sensitive FV should be to performance, it's so context specific.
Brendan Gawlowski
And you can find examples where both approaches were justified. Like, Hartman was sending signals right away this spring that he was a different guy than he was in '25. Moving quickly was the right answer there. Meanwhile, Ethan Salas had a rough couple years but the tools never really changed…
drplantwrench
follow up q, is it arjun's defense then? is it range/technique/arm?
Brendan Gawlowski
Range just okay, he's not that quick, footwork doesn't look great, can scatter his throws when he's not lined up well. Love the hands, growing chance it all plays better at third.
war2d2
Brendan! Piggybacking on the Posey question (I’ve not seen those quotes either): at what point do you think it becomes a question of morality about pitcher injuries? I’m speaking as a father of a 12yo who A) plays baseball, B) has 99th percentile velo for his age, and C) can’t hit a lick. As a dad I’d really prefer he was a position player, but his path forward (at least to HS /JuCo, or university if he makes it that far) is almost certainly tied to his arm. I realize teams aren’t coercing players against their will to go to Driveline and gain velo only to blow out, but at some point does a front office become (if not legally at least morally) culpable when they tell a kid “you’d be a real prospect if you just threw a little harder”?
Brendan Gawlowski
Complicated question, no easy answers, but very different context in the professional game versus teenage ball. At your son's age, the focus should be on having fun. Run screaming from anyone who wants to max out a 13 year old's stuff plus, or who wants to throw him all the time.
Brendan Gawlowski
For the professionals, it's a different equation. There are a lot of risks inherent to being a professional athlete, and for a pitcher, subjecting your arm to a greater risk of injury in the search of better stuff is part of the equation. That said, I do think teams should feel some moral obligation to lower their injury rates, and I think players should be educated about which teams tend to get their guys hurt, and which do a better job keeping them healthy.
Brendan Gawlowski
There's also a competitive angle here, too. At a certain point, you have enough injuries that you're doing something wrong. Like, Miami's injury rate is counter productive.
Matthew Rosenbaum
How has Charles Davalan looked at second in the AFL?
Misio improving his walk rate from 13.4% to 14.4% to 11.8% to 6.6% since 2023 is an XX% outcome ??
Brendan Gawlowski
97.54th
war2d2
I pulled him from travel ball and only have him in Little League (juniors) because I didn’t like the vibes I was getting. Maybe I’m costing him long term but like you said, I want him to have a great time and make a lot of happy memories.
Brendan Gawlowski
Be wary of teams that play in a lot of tournaments. They're fun, but unless the team is bringing a ton of pitching and has a responsible coach, the good ones can get run into the ground.
eccentricatlfan
One other question: quite a bit has been made about the Rays as of late and how they’ve utilized their sinkers, especially cases where pitchers are able to tunnel them effectively with their four-seamers. If this becomes part of the next big trend where teams try to develop this with their pitchers, which orgs particularly stand out as the best suited towards using this strategy?
Brendan Gawlowski
The usual suspects.
ADoctolero
I guess as optics go, I would have liked to see something like, "we're going to do everything we can to keep our guys healthy through this process," rather than, "no one is gonna get in trouble for pushing a guy so hard he breaks."
Brendan Gawlowski
Personally, I thought Posey hit his marks there. I also don't care that much about optics. What people do is more important than what they say, which is in turn more important than how the media/social media perceives what they say.
Domingo Ayala
How do ash bats make it easier to hit the ball?
Brendan Gawlowski
They don't (at least as far as I'm aware, I suspect we'll learn more about bats and bat technology in the future) but my understanding is that they don't hit the ball as hard so, in a world where it's easier to hit but you don't want the homer rate to explode, their use could theoretically help maintain balance. Speculation on speculation here.
Brian Martin
Dax Kilby follow up—what should the defense development Plan A be? Play him at SS as long as he can kinda handle it? Or switch to an easier position now to speed his path to the majors?
Brendan Gawlowski
I would just play him at SS. I thought he looked like a 50/55 type there and spoke to two scouts who felt similarly. I've also heard that at least one team has him graded that way based strictly on their defensive metrics, for what that's worth.
Brendan Gawlowski
Now, maybe he grows off of it, or maybe he'd be so good in center that you could justify moving him there based on that. But just from what I've seen, I wouldn't be in any hurry to move him.
BKhipsterball
You had Angel de los Santos as a long term pick to click. How we feeling about him now?
Brendan Gawlowski
Similarly! Better than my other two year dart throw guess.
Phil
How repeatable is the Bauersaissance, really? Even if you accept that MIL is better at post-prospect development, that doesn't mean they can Bauersify any equivalent hitter who's bouncing around the league. How do they know who they cam help? Is it initially luck–they just have to get a guy and see? Can they predict it? Or is it totally luck and I'm giving them too much credit even for Bauers himself?
Brendan Gawlowski
Can they reliably turn a 40 into a 60? Probably not. Do I think they can turn 35+/40 types into 45's more often than most other teams? Yes.
fishnchips
How did Salas look to your eyes in his callup time in September/playoffs? Any shading to his grades based on his MLB looks?
Brendan Gawlowski
He looked great. He's (obviously) much closer to actualizing the future grades than he was a year ago and the 55 future power looks low since he's 20 years old and basically already there.
Brendan Gawlowski
He's a great prospect.
Brendan Gawlowski
I saw Eric said he'd put him in the top 5 in his last chat and, yeah, that seems about right.
Big Fan
So….can you confirm that you're working on the Atlanta list?!?!
Brendan Gawlowski
I'm 98% done with it.
benae
Favorite non top 100 LHP in the milb as of today and why?
Brendan Gawlowski
Two for the price of one. Justin Lamkin's a fun watch as a pitchability guy who can kind of toy with hitters. I'm very interested in monitoring Kash Mayfield's development with Detroit.
Fangraphs Man
Eric seems to slightly revised his confidence in Bonemer's bat upwards- do you agree with this? Is there a path to him being an all star level LF even if he's a LF?
Brendan Gawlowski
He's scary, I think toward the bottom of the Top 100 is the right place to slot in the guy with a scary swing and limited defensive value… but also a lot of power and pretty good barrel feel.
benae
Any prospects that you love but you have worries that they are majorly blocked by the current big league club around their debut?
Brendan Gawlowski
No, talent pushes its way through eventually. The closest thing to this was River Ryan w/LAD.
Big Fan
You mentioned a few weeks ago that you were working on lists. Can you share what we should expect over the next month or two?
Brendan Gawlowski
99.87% done with Toronto, close to that with Atlanta, ~90% done with Boston. After that I might start on Texas… From there, no plans. I'll try to keep folks informed on a rolling basis where possible. The two things that kind of push a system up or down are the number of potential T100 guys (higher priority to do quickly) and the teams who have a lot of talent coming up from the DSL (these get pushed back on the off chance we can get a meaningful look in the spring).
Brendan Gawlowski
Eric has done that for a few years now and it makes a ton of sense.
benae
Does Seth Hernandez have major reliever risk long term or are you a believer in his ability to be a starter 5+ years from now?
Brendan Gawlowski
Every pitcher has some reliever risk, but Hernandez's is about as low as can be for a teenage flamethrower. He's really good.
Salty
non-prospect related, but what do you make of Victor Mesa's season? Just a late-bloomer or did he really benefit from change of scenery/team better at player development?
Brendan Gawlowski
Little of column A, little of column B. He looks like a good player going forward. Curious to see if he gets much ROY consideration.
benae
Do you think that Dzierwa has ace potential? If not, who in the MILB do you think currently has that no. 1 ceiling?
Brendan Gawlowski
Good pitching prospect, but ace is a little hot there. Seth Hernandez and Ryan Sloan might be the only two I'd project as aces right now.
RAH
Can David Sandlin establish himself in the CWS rotation next year?
Brendan Gawlowski
Yes.
jgcrocke
I’ve seen some notes from Arizona recently about the outfield positioning rules they’re testing, which seem to effectively boost doubles and (especially) triples. Any thoughts on types of prospects who would look better/worse to you under those rules, if adopted at MLB? Just a boost to fast corner outfielders or would it impact hitting grades as well?
Brendan Gawlowski
Speed in the outfield becomes imperative. Fourth outfielders with wheels and contact skill but not a ton of pop would get a lot more valuable.
Brendan Gawlowski
As would groundball pitchers, I suspect.
clydethedog
Charlie Condon and Josue De Paula have to get an early look in 27 correct?
Brendan Gawlowski
De Paula for all practical purposes has arrived. I don't know exactly how the Dodgers sort out the roster, and I can't guarantee that the answer is JDP is in the Opening Day lineup and stays there for 155 games, but he'll play a ton. Condon I would think is about ready to go but, as I said last week, Colorado's approach with him raises questions that require further investigation.
Phillip Denny
In retrospect, why didn't Ashby get developed as a starter? Was it health, command, a little of both?
Brendan Gawlowski
He… did? He even made 19 big league starts in '22.
Phillip Denny
If you were the Brewers and decided not to bring Bauers back, what would your confidence level be of 1B shaking out to be some combination of Vaughn/Fischer/Burke?
Brendan Gawlowski
Vaughn definitely part of the solution. Burke/Fischer have a shot to grow into a role there in 2027 but I are probably not part of the Opening Day plan. You're probably either committing to playing Vaughn there every day or looking for a Nate Lowe type to platoon.
hofstrascott20
Have you seen Ramcell Medina of the Royals at all recently. He seemed like a guy you were intrigued on a year or two ago, but his power hasn't really shown up at all in games like it was projected it might. Thanks a lot.
Brendan Gawlowski
Stock down, didn't hit much on the complex. Raw power was 30 grade.
Broken Bat
Curious about high rated prospects making it into Show in last 2-3 years but still young enough to bloom maybe this year; Based upon your evaluations, give us 2-3 position player guys you still think just need more time. Love the chats.
Brendan Gawlowski
Cam Smith might have another gear. Amador showed signs of life at the end of the year. For a deep shot, I'd like to see Max Muncy get a healthy year…
clydethedog
when it comes to fast risers who end up getting shots in the MLB (Leo Bernal this year, Michael Harris in the past), can we chalk this up to the club identifies something they like more than the public?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sometimes yeah. Sometimes its just org philosophy to push quickly. I wouldn't throw Bernal into that category though, he's moved at about a level per year.
daml91
Crazy to think the presumptive WS champions have the #1 prospect in the game knocking on the door. What is the plan with Made in 2027 if you're the Brewers? Start at AAA? What if he signs a contract extension? Does he supplant Pratt who has been leaky in the postseason at SS?
Brendan Gawlowski
What's crazy is that this has happened a few times in recent memory. Langford was ranked second and was the Opening Day starter for the defending champs, and then Roki was the top guy on the 100 prior to the 2025 season.
Brendan Gawlowski
As for the plan on Made, no need to rush, AAA would be just fine out of the gate.
scotth855
Looking back at the Cubs farm post their 2020-2023 rebuild, they had a top 5 (maybe even #1 farm system) that produced basically PCA, Busch, and nobody else. How much of that was an entire industry miss, overvaluation of a big market team's prospects, or just regular prospect hit/miss cycle?
The 2026 Arizona Fall League is three weeks old and I’ve now seen every team at least a handful of times. This means I’ve got a handle on a good bit of the league and also can start to identify what gaps I need to fill in during the second half of the slate.
I’ve updated the Fall League tab over on The Board to reflect what Brendan Gawlowski (during his week here in Phoenix) and I have assessed, using the “Trend” column to draw your focus to whose stock we think is moving (with the up or down arrows), who has popped onto our radar for the first time (with the “New” label), and who I still need to see more of (with the target) to feel comfortable assessing. We have not changed anyone’s FV grade because three weeks of looks is only a slice of the evaluation pie and our thoughts might yet change, though we have given interim grades to the “New” players.
Below I’m going to take you through my thoughts on the most notable names and movers from the six-team league. I’m writing as if you already know a bit about each player’s trajectory and background. If you don’t, go to The Board and read their full scouting report, as they tend to provide the 360-degree view of the player’s career.
Howdy from the kitchen table in Tempe where I'm being serenaded by a symphony of leaf blowers just over the back wall.
Eric Longenhagen
Sorry that this is my first chat in a couple of weeks, I've been dealing with some still-undiagnosed health stuff that seems to be abating. Pretty sure I'm okay. Had some illuminating experiences with our health care system though, and I'm pretty sure that's not. Anyway, I've still been at a ton of Fall League games and have a midway point post and Board update brewing, which might run as soon as later today but more likely Monday. For now, we chat.
Charles Bengal Tiger
How much upside does Luis Lara have as a hitter? What would be a reasonable projection for him a few years down the road?
Eric Longenhagen
He has as much upside as he can add strength without compromising the things he currently does really well. I think he's always going to be a sub-.400 SLG guy who plays awesome defense and makes a ton of contact. I think he has better long term upside than what Sal Frelick has been, but that what Frelick has been able to do is a lot like what Lara's skillset looks like right now.
Eric Longenhagen
All of that is to say: I feel comfortable with the 45 we put on Lara, but less comfortable with it than the 45 we put on Pratt. Both feel like solid role players rather than stars.
Solitaire
Request to pass on: add a filter to the minor league leaderboards for prospect status. I'd love to be able to quickly filter to the guys of note and/or see what sort of stats are reasonable for prospects rather than 29 YO journeymen
Thank you for doing these chats. Do you think the Mariners place Ace Reece in AA to start the year next year or just put him in Everett and fast track him if he has success. Also is his stock a little higher than it was after the draft and is he a potential top 100 prospect?
Eric Longenhagen
I would ordinarily tell you that they'd give him a good amount of big league reps during spring training and then decide whether to start him at High-A or Double-A based on how he looks, but I think a lack of MLB spring training means we should take the "under", so to speak, on these guys' assignments. Reese probably isn't an offseason top 100 guy, I'm not one to be moved by an SEC hitter going to the Cal League after the draft and crushing it there. He should, it would have been alarming had he not. Send him to Everett and he'll probably do more of the same. He can't really play defense so I wanna see him crush in Arkansas before buying it, personally.
nicklocarno
The fantasy community seems to have collectively gotten higher on Zion Rose in the months since the draft, and lower on Eric Booth Jr. Is this simple SSS overreaction, or are these informed by real scouting intel?
Eric Longenhagen
I can't speak for the fantasy "community" and I want readers to remember the way opinions spread online and how they can cloud what the array of opinions would be if everyone were sequestered before arriving at one. I can tell you that Zion looks damn good in the AFL, and that Brendan and I both agreed we should just 50 him this offseason. He's stock up. Booth is a hold. What your dynasty team needs (do you need a solid regular soon? Or do you need to take a shot on a potentially freaky stud who might also bust?) should dictate how you line them up on your FYPD board.
Anonymous Member #46
Congratulations on your promotion to Prospect Impresario!
Eric Longenhagen
This has been what Baumann has called me since the Crashburn Alley days, back in… 2012? Sheesh.
washedupscout
Hey Eric! This is John McNamara. We spoke last year when I interviewed with FanGraphs for the full-time prospect writer role. I was a scout with the San Diego Padres for eight years, and I really enjoyed our conversation about baseball and scouting. I recently wrapped up my time with the Padres and am looking for my next opportunity in baseball. I’d love to get your thoughts on where my scouting background might translate or if there’s anyone you think I should connect with. I’d really appreciate any advice or guidance. Thanks
Eric Longenhagen
Hey John, I remember. You were a good candidate and interview. I worry that scouting isn't exactly a growth industry, especially on the pro side. It's more stable on the amateur side because of how much more valuable and actionable "dope" is, and the fact that teams are guaranteed to acquire players via that market, whereas pro impact is more situational. So I'd try to stay on the amateur side. I also think it might be fruitful for more scouts to transition into college baseball as recruiters/GMs. Depending on how things turn out with the pending legislation around college sports, and where things settle post-lockout/CBA with regard to draft processes, it might suddenly make more sense for colleges to have more scouting and recruiting personnel than they already do. Find out what scouts have left pro ball for a job at a college and see if you can reach out to them for counsel. It might be cool to be the transfer portal scout for Miami, or something like that.
Solitaire
You see a batter change levels and suddenly his swing, contact, groundball, and pull percentages all take big jumps. But it's only 20 games. Guy got a new coach who taught/convinced him of a new swing/approach or just a flukey 20 games? 20 games is very small sample for results, but seems decent for approach. Eye-test needed to see if anything is actually different?
Eric Longenhagen
You can pretty easily marry the data change flag with a look at the wing on video to get a better feel for whether or not there has actually been a change. If you have a way of flagging changes in the data over a short (but statistically significant) window of time and then running down the flagged targets with your eye balls, that's ideal.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Does Kendry Rojas of MIN still project as a starting pitcher?
Eric Longenhagen
Yeah, I think as long as he has options he'll be rolled out as a starter enough to keep his innings count within a reasonable distance of full-time starting once his option years run out. The guys who tend to stick as starters are the ones whose bodies and deliveries look like Kendry's.
war2d2
Eric! The Cubs are running back their MLB pitching infrastructure, which got me thinking about their inability to build any kind of a minor league pitching pipeline for what is now almost 20 years of the Theo/Jed regime. Is it just bad drafting, bad development, or some kind of institutional blind spot that’s led to this? I’d have a hard time coming up with more than five pitchers in the last 20 years that they drafted, developed, and got value out of. In fact, Cease would probably be on that list and they traded him from A ball.
Eric Longenhagen
I think they've had some success but it hasn't been sustained success. Steele popped and then got hurt and looked like a shell of himself during rehab in AZ. I can say that their style of development tends to include velo spikes and pitch additions. Everyone suddenly has a cutter and a sweeper when before they had just one breaker, and they might throw a few ticks harder. But they haven't tended to develop or improve command. The Naz Mule's of the world don't need two more pitches, they need control. So maybe there hasn't been cohesion with what the draft has fed the dev group. Some teams, like the Brewers' pitchers, show similar trends where they all of a sudden have five pitches. And others, like the Rays, basically have guys throw 2 pitches the whole time they're in the minors and don't really care to flesh out repertoires as much.
szakyl
After AFL, how much confidence do you have that 2025 is behind him, and Welbyn Francisca is a legit prospect again?
Eric Longenhagen
He's back from the dead, imo.
Anonymous Member #46
How much are we knocking off your future value due to the health concerns?
Eric Longenhagen
You should ding my "party/hang" tool grade because I can't drink until I'm done with this run of medication. It was already a 40, unplayable now.
Brian Reinhart
Hope you continue recovering from your case of the bleph
ljax1979
The Royals have to trade Blake Mitchell this winter, right?
Eric Longenhagen
I think catching depth is important enough that, unless they think he's totally bunk from all the K's, they should probably hold onto him. If you think it's enough K's to make him a binary "no" as a hitter, than sure you can sell high on him coming off a 30 homer season.
Eric Longenhagen
This chat interface is so rad.
wallyworld2199
How is Briggs McKenzie looking coming off injury? Young, but seemed like he had some good stuff early on and the Braves are one of the better orgs developing pitchers
Eric Longenhagen
I saw his first start and haven't run into him since (I went to see the Fielder/Holmes movie last night) but he looked like Diet Bumgarner to me in the first game. Graceful, repeatable, deceptive, feel, good breaker quality. Starter all the way, mid rotation upside. Think we'll leave the 45+ on him, though, and make him a Pick to Click rather than hondo him right now.
Alex Remington
Looking at these two teams, there are a lot of really productive guys on both rosters who probably would not have been stars had they been developed in other organizations. Logan Henderson's a good example! Obviously, when you're doing a Board-type prospect ranking, it's hard to take org into account because guys can get traded and it's impossible to control for that, but – how much of the variance in a prospect's outcome can be traced directly to what organization they're in? And, as an analyst, what do you do with that?
Eric Longenhagen
This is the classic "predicting vs scouting" question. We have to assess the player in a vacuum, but you should feel free to put your thumb on the scale of predicting the outcome based on what orgs you think/know are better at developing players, or putting them in position to succeed. Like Andrew Vaughn changed orgs after he graduated, there's nothing we can do about retconning our grade, things just happen and it plays out and you hope you're directionally correct on the player.
baseballfan115
When evaluating future outfield defense, how do you determine whether a player who is transitioning to the OF has the capacity to judge the flyballs/get efficient and quick jumps?
Eric Longenhagen
Just watch the initial transition and see how natural it is for the player to do the things he needs to do at the OF position. Then give it time to breathe and check in a few months later on whether there's been progress. Some guys take to it right away, others need time/reps, and some will never get comfortable doing it.
clubberlang
Thanks for chatting! Angeibel Gomez has been raking lately in AFL. Does that change your opinion of his upside?
Eric Longenhagen
I think the very aggressive 50 we have on him is still appropriate. Real power and feel to hit, probably a corner OF in the end. To go from "new signee" to "guy we feel pretty strongly is a future everyday player" is really impressive. I don't think he's Acuna or anything like that.
Phil
Eric, it looks like the banner link is missing part of the url for this chat–the one in the blogroll works. Thought you'd want to know!
Eric Longenhagen
Thanks, idk why, we've asked Sean and I'm sure I just goofed something when I built the post because it's my first time chatting solo with this interface.
smoothio
Did Salas’ debut move the needle for you? I wonder if he has enough bat to be a superstar catcher like you’d expect from one getting started as a 20 year old.
Eric Longenhagen
Yeah, I think he's a top 5 prospect and will be a consistent 3 WAR catcher.
rossredcay
Not a prospect, but is Victor Mesa Jr. a possible major breakout next year in an everyday role? No real platoon split that would seem to indicate he needs to sit against lefties.
Eric Longenhagen
Seems possible, yes. Swing changed, more power without sacrificing a ton of contact. Contact was actually better in '26 than before, even with the more aggressive swing. Obviously has profile-altering arm strength and defensive profile. Could be 40 hit with 45 or 50 power and big time defense. That's at least a good platoon guy (45) if not an everyday player. We had him graded as an extra outfielder, basically a pure defensive replacement.
rossredcay
I know your opinion or way of thinking of these low contact sluggers (e.g. Murakami) has changed somewhat. I assume Griffin Conine is a guy who would fit into that bucket of bats. I've been waiting for the bottom to fall out give his awful contact rate, but is this a guy who could have a more sustainable role going forward given this shift in the game?
Eric Longenhagen
Yeah, the number of sub-70% contact guys keeps climbing and it's at the point where I need to reassess my baselines for viability, or at least try to separate the guys who aren't gonna hit enough to matter from the ones who will somehow. There are still guys with 65% contact who just aren't going to hit, it isn't like all of a sudden those guys are good to go.
Eric Longenhagen
But why Murakami (who sucked down the stretch btw, he might be due for a regression and all of this will be moot) and not Jack Cust, or whoever.
jkrangel1524
By your rankings Eyanson, Zazueta, Flora and Susana are are close to each other. Do you have a personal preference/order to these arms that differs from the rankings and if so, why?
Eric Longenhagen
Nah, they're *my* rankings. Susana it's 99-102 with bad shape, bad strikes, and an elite slider. He's probably a reliever but one of the ten best relievers in baseball. Zazueta it's velo, ride, command, changeup, but no good breaking ball. Mid-rotation guy with a flaw that prevents him from being a no. 2 or better. Flora could be the most complete guy of that group if he can stay healthy and throw strikes across 140+ innings, Eyanson is a little closer to having done that with 100 IP in pro ball this year.
tdmoc
Any chance Patrick Reilly can still start even with the lost time? Slider is playing much nicer than pre-TJS
Eric Longenhagen
Yes, I think the more vertical breaker will play against lefties and there are enough strikes. He's probably a five-and-dive type, though.
Bud Smith
Following up on a few weeks ago – any insight into why Aiva Arquette went on the IL for the last two days of the season?
Eric Longenhagen
Arquette had three IL stints this year. In order: Sports hernia (which is what I thought I had two weeks ago), thumb sprain, then oblique.
rossredcay
What would you say is the % chance Brody Hopkins just sticks in the pen from here on out? I'm assuming he gets another shot in the rotation next year at least, but is that for sure?
Eric Longenhagen
I'd say like 90% bullpen now that he's on the 40. Conversion arms tend to be in the bullpen.
Charles Bengal Tiger
In my (very deep) dynasty league I have a chance to draft Jared Grindlinger if I drop Xavier Neyens. Advisable, or would this be negligible gain?
Eric Longenhagen
I want Grindlinger
tdmoc
(also fyi the banner link leads to a 404 page)
Eric Longenhagen
This has been fixed
tjralstin13
Now with 3 injury marred or inconsistent seasons under his belt, do you have any confidence in Evan Carter or Wyatt Langford reaching their full potential? They have both showed flashes, but Wyatt's decisions at the plate, defensive miscues and health have been infuriating. Carter also can't seem to choose an approach that gives him sustained offensive success similar to the lightning in bottle run he had in 2023. Do you have any recommendations for either of them or the Rangers moving forward that you've observed? Thanks again!
Eric Longenhagen
I'm still on Longford, Carter I think is just okay.
Anonymous Member #46
more like Eric Lags-at-hangin' amirite
Eric Longenhagen
I'm only good at cooking and writing anymore.
millvillemeltdown
athletics and sports all select for outlier/"freakish" traits; are there things that you have seen in baseball that you did not think were humanly possible? did any "freaks" end up really panning out from your perspective?
Eric Longenhagen
I've seen deGrom in person three times and was blown away all three times. Acuna's balls in play made retirees at AFL games moan in kind of a scared way. Teenage Tatis BPs were crazy. Watching Gerrit Cole's Fall League debut was crazy. Stephen Strasburg Harrisburg home debut with so many fans taht they ran out of food, had a brown out and a rain delay, and hearing his breaking ball spinning through the humidity throughout the whole ballpark was crazy.
Eric Longenhagen
Even Ray Kerr. Like, Kerr is "just" a middle reliever but he's here in part because he's pretty freaky.
Eric Longenhagen
Whenever anyone does high-end stuff of any kind, I wanna hopefully be sensitive to that and bet that will play in the big leagues. It doesn't have to be guys who run fast or jump high or who are built like underwear models. It can be Alejandro Kirk framing pitches like he does.
Solitaire
Anyone floating around the minors with speed who could try to completely sell out power for bat control and make it like Chandler Simpson? Or do you need truly 80-grade speed to make that profile work, no 60s or 70s need apply
Eric Longenhagen
I think you need at least a 70.
David Wiers
What's your fav defunct baseball site? BrooksBaseball or StatCorner.
Eric Longenhagen
Brooks was big for me in college.
matt
I emailed FG support without a reply a few weeks ago but can you possibly let them know to add contact% as possible category to add on milb custom reports. They have swinging strike% but knowing whiff/contact% is different. Thank you
Eric Longenhagen
Contact rate doesn't come from the game logs liek the other data, that's Statcast/Hawkeye/Trackman stuff that I source from team people. I'll approach Sean and Co. about integrating it into the board somehow, but it'd be an end of year data point rather than something that could update in real time.
wallyworld2199
More importantly….how was the Nathan Fielder doc on a 20-80 scale?
Eric Longenhagen
Still digesting it, in the 65/70 area for me. OJ Made in America is the 80.
InsertWittyNameHere
Two-parter: what's the best quote you've ever gotten from a prospect, and what's the dumbest thing you ever heard someone say? I feel like during the lockout we should get more human interest reporting about what it's like to be a pro/amateur ball player.
Eric Longenhagen
Not a ton of prospect quotes from me, I talk to some kids at the Combine every year and have some questions for kids on occasion, but those questions are almost always to glean information about how they're being developed rather than the player himself. Jake Burger is really funny, JJ Wetherholt impressed all of us at the combine a few years ago, JA Happ was nice to be around when I was a kid at Lehigh Valley back in '08.
nicklocarno
curious if you have thoughts about the hypothetical landscape of college baseball, supposing HS players were excluded from draft eligibility in the next CBA… in particular, would it make home games in a Big10 city more relevant on the level of getting to see some capital-D Dudes before the draft?
Eric Longenhagen
Yeah, it's roughly 50 players who I ranked, and probably another 15 or so who I didn't, who get signed out of high school now but wouldn't if HS players are no longer draft eligible. In the bucket of the college player population it isn't a ton of bodies. But it is a lot of the most talented kids. All it takes is one Rocker/Leiter duo to make some noise and grab people's attention, and it would ensure those guys do some version of that, even if it's just for a year or two like in the NBA. But the things that make college baseball tough to watch (all the walks, lack of pitching depth, midweek games that go 4 hours because of all the runs, a bloated run environment because the bats are like golf clubs) would remain.
Joshua
No question but a feature request: ability to sort Team Stats on the Minor League side like the MLB stats leaderboards. Thanks for the great work!
Eric Longenhagen
Oh yeah, that's interesting. I wonder if there might be barriers to coding that retrospectively because affiliates change?
baseballfan115
Speed development. I remember Julio Rodriguez was projected early to fall to a corner. What stopped him from doing that? Did he gain speed? Not lose as much as predicted?
Eric Longenhagen
There's a Divish article about Julio completely changing his eating and workout habits you should dig up.
Healthy, mobile, fast. Ends up playing next to Walcott a bunch, so also looks more human.
David Wiers
Among other reasons why purely scouting a stat line is sub-optimal, what percentage of MiLB hits would more usually be outs in the show? Like 10% between fielding, positioning, and "hits" that actually errors?
Eric Longenhagen
Man, that's a tough question. It's super relevant. Can we just assess BABIPs and have an okay enough notion?
Honkus Wagner
asked brendan this and curious for your answer as well. Caceras, Gomez, Renteria, Frias. if you were starting a team which one are you taking?
Eric Longenhagen
Frias, Gomez, Caceres, Renteria.
Bacterun
When it comes to a player like Bryce Rainer (high strikeout, big power, lots of walks in minors with surprisingly good average for K%) what kind of attributes do you look at to shade up or down on developing better contact? Is it more of a physical thing? More of an approach thing? Odds Rainer can rein in his strikeouts to become an All-star or better MLBer? (pun very much intended)
Eric Longenhagen
Lever/swing length (which is kind of a double-edged sword because it's easy to say the longer guys will shorten up as they get stronger {Walcott has} but sometimes they just can't) and feel for altering their hands to help them make contact. Like the way Judge tucks his hands in to shorten up against stuff near his torso. That's how you avoid being too long to make contact in there. Rainer isn't doing that right now, it's realy really long.
Andrew
Thoughts on Villanova breaking up the Big 5?
Eric Longenhagen
Selfish, cynical, douche behavior.
Alex Remington
In connection with my earlier question (predicting vs scouting), what *do* the various teams do well? I think as fans we can sometimes overblow this stuff. Like Cleveland and Atlanta really do seem to be able to churn out pitching, and Tampa and Milwaukee always seem to be more than the sum of their parts offensively, and Toronto *typically* seems like they can get their guys to hit – until this year. Et cetera! Who are the orgs who you'd identify as having genuinely repeatable strengths?
Eric Longenhagen
Some of it is acquisition related, some of it is player dev, and some of it is deployment. Yes, Cleveland makes pitchers better. They draft strike-throwers and turn them into harder-throwing guys without killing their command. Milwaukee seems to know what kind of bat these guys should be using. Bauers, Turang… they've all changed their gear in meaningful ways. I think bat design/weight/shape cab be tailored for each individual's swing and Milwaukee has done that. Their international department also finds dudes via a "go-wide" strategy, which they also emply in the draft by taking all these HS guys spread across lower seven figure and mid sic figure bonuses. WHen you have great dev, it makes sense to want more bites at the apple and they have that locked in. Tampa deploys guys in the ways they're best suited to succeed. When you have Manny Margot and Corey Dickerson and their skillsets compliment one another, you can put both in the best position to succeed on a rate stat basis. You're turning 45s in a vacuum into 55s on a rate basis, and then creating trade value as if the players are 50s and 55s, dealing those guys when they become expensive and snowballing similar prospects to ensure you always have enough guys around to do this…
Eric Longenhagen
Kiley and I wrote a whole chapter in Future Value about this. Obviously that was seven years ago and things are different. We try to do a version of this every year in the System Overviews of the prospect lists to give you an idea of what we think teams are good at.
Eric Longenhagen
Okay friends, 90 minute chat today feels like a good re-entry after two weeks off. Thanks for coming, enjoy the world series.
Sebastian Walcott arguably possesses the highest ceiling among players currently competing in the Arizona Fall League. Not only is the 20-year-old shortstop ranked 11th on The Board with a 55 FV, Eric Longenhagen opined in his AFL preview that Walcott “might be the best prospect in baseball.” Brendan Gawlowski has likewise been bullish. When ranking the youngster atop our Texas Rangers list back in April, Brendan wrote that “Walcott has been one of the toolsiest and most projectable players in the game from practically the moment he signed as part of the 2023 international class.”
An elbow injury delayed his start to the season. The Nassau, Bahamas native underwent internal brace surgery in February and subsequently didn’t return to game action until mid-July. Understandably erring on the side of caution, the Rangers limited Walcott almost exclusively to DH duty (although he is back on the dirt in the desert — and reportedly also working out in the outfield — with the Surprise Saguaros.)
The layoff didn’t prove burdensome to his bat. Getting the lion’s share of his 187 regular-season plate appearances with Double-A Frisco, Walcott walloped 10 home runs while putting up a .325/.401/.590 slash line and a 149 wRC+. He hasn’t been nearly as good in the AFL — seven hits in 31 at-bats, with a lone dinger — but there is no disputing his potential to one day hit in the middle of a big league lineup.
Once upon a time, he punished pitchers who were windmilling balls from a mound 43 feet away from home plate. As did Jazz Chisholm Jr. and others from the Bahamas, Walcott played softball growing up. Read the rest of this entry »
Luke Holman has been one of the top pitchers in the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League. Across three starts with the Peoria Desert Dogs, the 23-year-old right-hander in the Cincinnati Reds organization has surrendered just one run over nine innings. Moreover, he has fanned 15 batters and allowed just four hits and a lone walk. He was especially sharp on Monday. Facing a Scottsdale Scorpions lineup that included high-profile prospects Zyhir Hope, Bryce Rainer, and Nathan Flewelling, Holman breezed through four scoreless frames on 52 pitches.
Eric Longenhagen referenced the recent outing when I asked him for a snapshot of what he has seen from the Reading, Pennsylvania native, whom the Reds drafted 71st overall in 2024 out of Louisiana State University.
“He looks good,” our lead prospect analyst told me. “Glove-side command of 92-94, plus curveball in the 78-82 mph range. Attacks lefties in on their hands with fastballs and mid-80s cutter/sliders, then drops curveballs below the zone. He stretched out to four innings in his most recent start. Looks like a potential no. 4/5 to me. I want to see how he attacks second/third time through when asked to go six innings, and how his arm strength trends as he gets traction in a full-season routine.”
The erstwhile LSU Tiger, whose rotation-mates at the SEC powerhouse included Kade Anderson and Gage Jump, hasn’t had much of an opportunity to establish a routine. Holman began his professional career with a pair of effective outings in April 2025, only to have his elbow give out; Tommy John surgery cost him the remainder of the campaign. He also missed almost the entirety of this past season due to injury. Read the rest of this entry »
As an evaluator, what have you been able to take from the sustained player acquisition and development successes of the Rays and Brewers?
Brendan Gawlowski
Two of the prime examples of how holistic player evaluation is the right path forward. Both with great front offices, scouting staffs, and dev operations. Hand in glove operations.
Charles Bengal Tiger
I need a long-term young dynasty catcher. Who's most likely to have a solid MLB career out of Leo Bernal, Vahn Lackey, or Nathan Flewelling?
Brendan Gawlowski
Lackey but I like all three.
Charles Bengal Tiger
How has Charles Davalan looked at 2B?
Brendan Gawlowski
Promising but needs reps. Athleticism and range to do it…
Jeremy Bowers
Hi Brendan! Thanks for doing these. Every year, it's interesting to see evals and rankings update over the offseason even though there doesn't appear to be a lot of new information added. What's happening there? How do you approach an offseason where you have little new additional info.
Brendan Gawlowski
I'm not sure I understand your question. We've got a year of new info to work with. Sometimes that changes the forecast, often it doesn't, but either way it's worth reviewing the year and checking in.
jdbolick
Has your opinion of Kade Anderson changed after seeing his four seam with the MLB ball?
Brendan Gawlowski
I wish we'd been a little cooler on him on the midseason update. His FB grade will go down.
Jeremy Bowers
Re: evals over the offseason — apologies, mostly thinking about how you might approach looking at a player or an org given just new perspective but not necessarily any new looks.
Brendan Gawlowski
Lot of video/data analysis. Even a guy who looks fairly similar might have added a pitch, and it's good to go in and take a glance at how that looks on video.
bdolven
What do you think Jared Grimdlinger’s path looks like? Definitely not going to pitch? How quickly do you figure he’ll be expected to move?
Brendan Gawlowski
LAA sources say they're going to try the two-way path. Harder to go quickly that way but fun/exciting nonetheless.
Domingo Ayala
I went through old scouting reports on other sites and saw Profar had present 70 grade SS defense. Was that a misread or did Profar change over time?
Brendan Gawlowski
There were some injuries in there but the 70 might've been a little hot. I was a neophyte back then though.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Who will be the next good homegrown starting pitcher for the Dodgers?
Brendan Gawlowski
Zazueta is the leader in the clubhouse.
Domingo Ayala
Years ago when Moniak was selected first overall, I read a report that when he showed up to camp in the spring he already looked less athletic. Do you recall your first look at him that Spring?
Brendan Gawlowski
Didn't have one, but given that he's still playing a little center in big league games ten years after he was drafted, don't think athleticism was necessarily the prroblem there.
mbushskbum
I attended the AFL triple header in Goodyear Saturday and then Glendale at Salt River yesterday. Dax Kilby looked awesome yesterday. His speed was impressive as was how hard he hit his triple and ground rule double. How do you measure speed for your evals? I notice that FGs has Kilby as a 55 spd while MLB and BA have him at a 60. Curious what you look at to grade it.
Brendan Gawlowski
Home to first time is the anchor and I might throttle up or down a half grade depending on how playable it seems to be. Good example of a tool that's easier to see in all its glory when you're in the park. You get a better look at first step on defense or on the bases, and some video feeds make it tricky to get an accurate run time, too.
Brendan Gawlowski
Amusingly, I know of a scout who once got into a ton of trouble for putting 60 run times on 30 runners because he was doing it on video and didn't know that all the camera angles weren't synced up.
kingkash7788
How much has Nimmala risen in the last week and a bit?
Brendan Gawlowski
Holding steady.
Brendan Gawlowski
Maybe a tick down, I'm not ready to move him off of SS yet but I can see it going that way a little more every time I watch him.
mbushskbum
Have you seen Nathan Flewelling? How would you rate his catcher D in particular his framing. How to do you grade framing when watching players?
Brendan Gawlowski
Framing, for me, is easier on video; there's just so much else going on in the park, I have a hard time getting a good feel for it unless I'm really paying attention to just that at the expense of other stuff. But I'm looking for mobility, low stance, strong wrist, limited head movement. If most of the physical stuff looks good but the technique isn't there yet, that's fine, we can project there.
Brendan Gawlowski
Flewelling himself does a lot of that well, he's low to the ground and can funnel balls toward the plate from all directions.
George
Hey Brendan! In your Pitcher AFL notes you wrote that Susana had split his breaking ball into two shapes in your October 10th look. The shapes were pretty blended in his AAA looks. Did you hear anything about how that transpired in the AFL and whether it was an explicitly intentional change?
Brendan Gawlowski
There was enough velo separation between his slowest and fastest ones that I figured it was two pitches; he may have just been adding/subtracting. Regardless, I like that he's able to mix it up a little bit.
war2d2
Brendan! Right now is generally when my friends and I start our generalized plans for our annual spring training trip. What’s your general feeling for if there will be any games in late-February next year? Minor leaguers will still be under contract, right? If that doesn’t happen we’re also considering Cape Cod, or putting it off until October for the AFL. What’s your general feel for which one would be more enjoyable for a bunch of depressed middle-aged nerds?
Brendan Gawlowski
Really tough year to make plans, unfortunately. My crystal ball isn't any better than anybody else's. Maybe it's the hopeless optimist in me, but if I had to guess, I suspect we're looking at a similar deal to what we had in 2022, maybe with a few missed games, maybe not.
Brendan Gawlowski
As for your situation specifically, if you have the flexibility to make plans just a few weeks in advance, you might actually get a pretty good deal on hotels and attendance at big league games will be pretty light, which is a positive in my book.
Brendan Gawlowski
Alternatively, if you're cool with just going to the backfields, plan away.
Wright Abbot
Most of the Orioles players in the Fall League seem to be doing well. Anything caught your attention in particular?
Brendan Gawlowski
Pleasantly surprised by Honeycutt, I guess. More in a 40-ish sort of way than huge impact, but he didn't look overmatched at the plate.
Petey Bienel
Did Cayden Wallace show enough this season to restore the 40 status he had when he was in the KC system?
Brendan Gawlowski
That feels about right off the cuff, would need to dive into the defense to say for sure. He's reached the AA power grade he's had here for a while. Approach is not good though.
Charles Bengal Tiger
What position will Ace Reese eventually play?
Brendan Gawlowski
1B/LF.
Alex Remington
I saw the Mets just decided to hire more scouts. This is *maybe* more of a rant than a question, but why did so many teams decide to cut their scouting staffs in recent years, and is there any chance that this particular World Series matchup induces more teams to think about beefing back up in their scouting department?
Brendan Gawlowski
A combination of things. Some people think that the data is robust enough that you don't need scouts. Some leaders don't like that scouts come from a different perspective and have a different view on players. Some scouts don't do themselves any favors.
StuShea
If you're the White Sox, do you hold Colson Montgomery for another year? Can he improve?
Brendan Gawlowski
Yes, numbers tanked right when he got hurt. I buy that he was playing through something in the second half .
mbushskbum
I have never visited the backfields, can you give a brief or not suggestion of how to do that?
Brendan Gawlowski
Each splits its minor leaguers into four or five teams. Those teams play games on the backfields which are usually but not always (Athletics, Giants, Reds/Guardos kind of) very close to the stadium. There are usually but not always two games going on simultaneously (A/A+ teams or AA/AAA teams). There are a few fans but not many, more scouts/family/autograph hounds than anything else. It's a good time.
Ceiling of a no. 3, he'll likely be a 45 this winter, maybe 45+. Could reach the desert next year, take your pick on a 27 or 28 ETA.
Brendan Gawlowski
I should admit, of all the things I grade/project here, the ETA is the thing I spend the least time on. It's hard enough to project on the tools, and the timeline is often not dictated by talent and performance alone anyway.
apeloton
If you’re the Sox, do you feel like you have a Story/Arias situation? If so, what do you do about it this winter?
Brendan Gawlowski
Good problem to have. Cynically, it gives you an excuse to delay the clock on Arias. In the unlikely event that Story is both good and healthy at short, great, if not you have the guy you really want there anyway just about ready to go.
Honkus Wagner
has Walcott’s gotten enough work at SS in the AFL to quell any concerns about his defense there? will be interesting to see how Texas manages Jung and Seager going into next year
Brendan Gawlowski
I'd shift the framing. It's less a concern to quell than a case where Walcott is going to have to continually prove that he can play short throughout his career.
Pirates Hurdles
Hi Brendan, do you have any intel on why Derek Curiel didnt see any MiLB time this year? Coming from LSU I would have thought straight to A or A+ was in the plan. I guess the approach worked well enough with Murf Gray, but seems odd to me.
Brendan Gawlowski
Fairly typical for first round picks to not go out to A ball at the end of the year. Some do, some don't, wouldn't read too much into it.
swood
With the benefit of hindsight, who were some guys you were way too high on this year, and why were you too high?
Brendan Gawlowski
There are obviously a lot of guys who didn't reach their projection, but there were always reasons for putting them where I/we did. I think the ones that bug me the most are the ones where data led me astray. Putting too much weight on metal bat exit velos, over-grading a fastball due to shape generated with a minor league ball, things like that.
Brendan Gawlowski
If the question is more like "why were you too high on Dylan Beavers?" I think you can generally follow the trail of thought from the writeup.
maximus74
do you expect an over correction to the rabbit ball used in the minors from this year?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't really know what to expect. My guess is it will shift back toward where it was before but who knows. The league isn't great at making consistent baseballs.
Anonymous Member #46
Is there anything worth reading into from the 2026 draft class at all yet?
Brendan Gawlowski
Bits and pieces. Couple scouts told me they think Ace Reece looked more hitterish than they expected, which is interesting. But more things like that than a "it really looks like Team X screwed that one up" so far.
InsertWittyNameHere
Klaw said Aidan Miller looked good during the AFL, did you get a look at him too?
Brendan Gawlowski
I didn't, sorry, kept missing him. Pretty sure Eric has got him a couple times though, better question for him.
ryancorrigan10
If you had the 1.01 draft pick in a dynasty league this winter, who would you take with that pick?
Brendan Gawlowski
Not a fantasy guy but PCA/Witt/Elly/Caminero seem most appealing depending on your risk tolerance and positional scarcity needs.
dan norman lear
Who is the starting OF on Opening Day 2027, whenever that may be, for the Colorado Rockies?
Brendan Gawlowski
Carrigg.
beanbong
with how relievers are used in the postseason now (essentially every game for some), does that affect FV for pitchers projected to be late-inning relievers? Cade Smith ran out of gas but threw more innings than all the Cleveland staff except for Messick/Williams
Brendan Gawlowski
It's an interesting question. All projections are tricky, relievers moreso than just about anyone else. The very best relief prospects don't reliably turn into dominant closers. And on the other side of the coin, how could you project Cade Smith to halve his walk rate the second he got to the big leagues?
Brendan Gawlowski
Practically speaking, I'm finding that I'm projecting more and more guys who are starting in the minors into relief roles, and leaving their FV's higher than I perhaps would have a few years ago.
higginsford
Are you glued to Peacock for this absurd day game tipoff for the NBA's opening day?
Brendan Gawlowski
No. Bad opinion incoming but… I don't think basketball works.
padsfan96
Anyone from the back end of the top 100 list poised to take a leap on next year's list based on their 2nd half?
Brendan Gawlowski
I imagine 5-10 will. Kilby for sure. Luis Hernandez wouldn't surprise me. Maybe a guy like Michael Arroyo, now that he's played a little bit in the big leagues, and played well. I'll be pushing to knock him ahead of Celesten at the very least.
beanbong
Piggybacking on the reliever question, the recent Jaffe article highlights Ashby and points out that he could've won NLCS MVP. If you're starting a 7 game playoff series, would you rather have the lights-out fireman reliever or the 4.00 FIP #3 starter? I'd want the reliever, as I'm sure most would, but on opening day, would the answer be the same? Does (or should) that play a role in projecting players, or are we now introducing another tricky variable into an already tricky art?
Brendan Gawlowski
To complicate things further: I'm not so sure that the no. 3 starter couldn't just be the fireman reliever.
jaysfan39
Any thoughts on Jake Cook's first season in pro ball,?
Brendan Gawlowski
It was okay. Speed played a little better on the bases than it did in college, which is a good sign. Arrow flat or slightly down.
JMKUHNER
RE: Rockies OF… that's a LOT of ground for Cole Carigg to cover by himself…
Brendan Gawlowski
ah jeez, I read that as CF. I assume they'll run it back with McCarthy and Moniak in the corners… Boring answer, I know.
triplesandtea
Who in your mind was a "can't miss" prospect when you wrote them up (for either us or PIT) who ended up missing? Why did they miss? If for injury, can you also think of an example that wasn't an injury miss?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't think anybody is "can't" miss but I had a big grade on Tovar, and if you'd have told me at the end of his 3.5 win 2024 season that, two years later, his walk/strikeout numbers will go in the right direction AND he'd have a 55 wRC+ I'd have been floored.
Brendan Gawlowski
Answer there is that the approach got exploited in a big, big way.
apeloton
What’s the updated super bull case for kilby? Well rounded regular kinda guy, or might there be another gear even on top of that?
Brendan Gawlowski
The super bullish case is that he can hit .300 with a little power and play above average defense at short.
Brendan Gawlowski
It's quite a ceiling.
Domingo Ayala
Wait, why doesn't basketball work? I'm not a fan either but can you explain?
Brendan Gawlowski
Block/charge/no call is just a vibe.
John Church
Since higher draft picks produce the most value on average, do amateur scouting departments focus most of their resources on the top two rounds (say, top 75) or so some teams try to focus on building greater org depth and look to hit on later rd picks as well?
Brendan Gawlowski
Kind of both. The big picks get a lot of attention. Multiple decision makers will go personally see and talk to the seven-figure guys. But there are still plenty of people around pouring their heart and soul into looking for diamonds in the rough.
JMKUHNER
Does that make Veen or Condon attractive trade pieces? Challenge trade to a pitching rich team possibly (do pitching rich teams even exist given the number of pitchers used by teams per year these days…)
Brendan Gawlowski
It's worth giving Veen another look but the swing and miss is really scary there. The way the Rockies have developed Condon is different enough from my eval of him that I feel the need to dig deeper to figure out what the heck is going on.
maximus74
had zero idea that the NBA was trying out day games for opening "night" guess I'm not playing fantasy basketball this year
Brendan Gawlowski
I didn't either From a distance, the league seems like it's in kind of a weird place. I think it's true in all sports but maybe in basketball especially, a lot of the energy seems to come from stuff not happening on the court.
maximus74
Do you think draft pick trading will make it into this CBA?
Brendan Gawlowski
I'd be pleasantly surprised.
adamakbani99
Updated views on Tai Peete? Don't want to overreact to a small sample but between AA/AFL he's been great against better competition and has shown better swing decisions recently. Is a 45 FV fair now?
Brendan Gawlowski
I would not go crazy on AFL production. I'm encouraged that he's continuing to make things work as he's facing better pitching but my feelings on him haven't changed much. He's the kind of player I'd project as a regular as a scout, but one that teams have to value lower than that because he's so risk/reward.
Anonymous Member #46
If pick trading made its way into the CBA, what teams do you think would be most poised to take advantage? Who would be most aggressive in acquiring picks, and who would be aggressive in trading them away?
Brendan Gawlowski
The Rays would find a way to have 40 picks in the first ten rounds.
JMKUHNER
Ah, the vibe, just like a check swing (nothing defines "offering at the pitch" other than the umpires vibes)
Brendan Gawlowski
There's some of this in all sports. Pass interference, penalties in soccer, the strike zone at times in baseball history, etc. "Can I legally go to the hoop?" seems more fundamentally problematic to me but… Like I said, it's a bad opinion. We all have 'em.
ToastMalone
I saw Teruaki Sato was posted., but I didn’t see him on The Board. Any guess where he’ll slot in?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sneak peak at Ben's list… He's in 50 FV territory there.
dan norman lear
Rank the Ethans"
Brendan Gawlowski
Salas, Holliday, Pecko, Conrad, Roberts… I'm running out of Ethans, please send help.
triplesandtea
Maybe a better question for an article but what's something you think rookie scouts often overstate/understate relative to veteran scouts? What about something veterans more often miss than rookies?
Brendan Gawlowski
You get better at projecting the longer you do it. You start to get a feel for how certain bodies and traits will age. For veterans, as the game changes, there's a risk that you either don't adapt or just get really frustrated with how modern baseball is played, and that can seep into the evaluations a little bit.
Honkus Wagner
Caceras, A Gomez, Frias, Renteria…you get one to start a team with, who are you taking?
Brendan Gawlowski
Leaning Gomez, caveat that I need to give Renteria a longer look. Caceres feels a little out of place here.
dan norman lear
Sometimes we just have prospects, whom, no matter what we read about them, are skeptical they are ever going to be more than prospects. My recent one has been Tink Hence. Currently, it is Jamie Arnold. Do you have a prospect you are just skeptical of, regardless of hopeful promise.
Brendan Gawlowski
It's interesting you mentioned Hence, I had a very similar feeling to what you were describing. As a general matter, I tend to be skeptical of the corner guys with light power but good minor league swing data.
Brendan Gawlowski
Think I'll shut it down here today. Thanks as always for the questions, we'll do it again next week.
