Archive for Prospects

The 34th Arizona Fall League season opens today with three games staggered across the Phoenix metro area. There are future stars in the Fall League every year, as well as many more workmanlike players who are competing for a 40-man roster spot on next year’s club. It’s a wonderful league for teams to develop and scout prospects because of the cross section of talent it tends to include (there are usually lots of good position player prospects), its timing (which allows players who were injured during the regular season to catch up on reps), and its structure (which allows for six weeks of steady looks). Teams almost always take the AFL seriously and send players who they want to see more of, or want to test. Being on the roster is, on its own, a flare for people like me who are looking for future big leaguers. It’s an indication that a player is worth paying attention to from a scouting standpoint even if I didn’t know the guy’s name until I saw the roster.

Previewing this league with prospects’ scouting reports risks putting the cart before the horse because the scouting part has yet to happen. I want to give you the notes I already have, to play the hits and make sure you have Jarlin Susana and Arjun Nimmala reports and tool grades in front of you right now (don’t worry, you will), but a huge part of the pro scouting exercise that is the Arizona Fall League is mining for the deeper-cut prospects, and I can’t tell you who those guys are going to be just yet. Still, I can show you the initial steps I take to prepare to go to the field and try to systematically unearth these guys, give you the tools to do so on your own, and, in the process, let know you who it is I’m most curious and excited to learn more about for the next six weeks.

The players who become scouting “targets” tend to fall into a handful of categories: famous players, potential dudes, statistical performers, and players in a key roster situation. Read the rest of this entry »

While there was only one Instructional League game in the Valley on Monday, Tuesday had three options: Los Naranjeros de Hermosillo (a Mexican Pacific League team from Sonora, the Mexican State immediately south of Arizona) was at the Athletics’ facility in Mesa, while the Royals (hosting the Reds) and the Rangers (hosting the Padres) would have simultaneous games at their shared complex in Surprise. I carpooled with Baseball America contributor and photographer, Bill Mitchell, to the northwest end of the metro for those games, with two cameras in tow.

Within minutes of getting to Surprise, I learned that Joe Musgrove and Lucas Giolito were making rehab appearances for the Padres, and that the Royals-Reds game was slated for 11 innings. About 10 minutes before first pitch, I set up a camera at the Royals’ field and began to make my way over to the Rangers’ side to watch Giolito and Musgrove in real time. While anxiously daydreaming about arriving just a tad late to the other field, I wasn’t paying attention to my surroundings and was nearly hit by an errant Steven Zobac long-toss throw, which whizzed past my shins. Halfway across the parking lot, I was relieved when I heard music coming from the Rangers’ field — they were still getting loose. I made it in time. Read the rest of this entry »

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While I was on vacation last month, the Miami Marlins axed their pro scouting department. They’re just the latest team to do so: Per recent reporting from Yahoo Sports’ Jake Mintz, four teams have no pro scouts and another five have four or fewer on staff, though the Nats are hiring, and as Jake notes, exact roles and titles can vary team to team.

I should be up front about my perspective: I worked as a pro scout for the Pittsburgh Pirates for four years. It was a great experience and I saw firsthand how scouts can add value to a front office, even one with strong analytical chops. While it’s gutting any time friends or former colleagues lose their jobs, I’m both frustrated and baffled when orgs choose to cut, or severely curtail, their entire department. For mediocre middle reliever money, clubs can have a team of expert player evaluators provide information that statistical and acquisition models can’t produce, and challenge some of the conclusions they can. In an era where teams increasingly rely on (similar) data to build their models and evaluate talent, scouting should be more important, not less.

Given the state of the pro scouting landscape, that’s clearly not an intuitive conclusion. In part, that’s because the scouting profession doesn’t look the same as it did 20 years ago: Statcast, TrackMan, and other tools have reshaped the role and, in some places, taken a bit of the guesswork out of the job. Some scouts still primarily evaluate in the park but many others primarily scout on video, much like Eric and I do here at FanGraphs. As with the radar gun a generation ago, in my view, these tools are both helpful for scouts and not nearly sufficient to replace them. While modern scouts must be more data literate than their forebears, sharp eyes and sound information-gathering skills remain the most critical tools of the trade. Holistic evaluation is the best way to analyze players, and scouts who can blend analytical fluency with strong visual evaluations are worth their weight in gold. Even in a world with robust data, it’s immensely valuable to have scouts who can project which players will under- or over-perform their statistical projections. To help bolster that conviction, let’s look at some of the specific ways scouts help big league clubs. Read the rest of this entry »

Back from vacation, I returned to the field Monday for an Instructional League game between the Athletics and Rockies. How is the Instructional League different from the Bridge League, which I’ve covered previously? Both are unofficial leagues with a scrimmage-style setting, but “Instructs” take place after the rest of the minor league schedule has concluded, and typically includes a handful of select players from the various affiliates that the parent club wants to see more of, and maybe the best couple of guys from each org’s DSL squad. So, Bridge League (which takes place after the Draft and Complex League seasons are over but before the rest of the minors are done) features rookie-level players, new draftees, and rehabbers, while Instructional League has more select talent from several different minor league levels, and often includes Arizona Fall Leaguers who are getting ramped up for their looming slate. There isn’t the same kind of internal team video or shared data for this window as there is for regular season affiliated ball, so this makes Instructs particularly useful to see in person. Read the rest of this entry »

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Alex McCoy isn’t a high-profile prospect. Signed as a non-drafted free agent in 2024 out of Hofstra University, the 24-year-old corner outfielder is ranked just 25th in the San Diego Padres system with a 35+ FV. That doesn’t mean he’s without upside. Over 541 plate appearances this season, the Baltimore native left the yard 19 times while logging a 112 wRC+ and a .278/.355/.467 slash line between High-A Fort Wayne and Double-A San Antonio. Last year, in an injury-limited first professional campaign, he put up a 146 wRC+ over 226 plate appearances in Low-A.

McCoy does serious damage when he squares up baseballs. Asked for a scouting update, Eric Longenhagen recently told me that the 6-foot-5, 260-pound slugger possesses “crazy high-end power [with] max exits and 90th-EV markers [that] are plus-plus on the scale.” That came with a caveat. Our lead prospect analyst also said “a lack of feel means the consistency of the contact is not as good… his 66% contact rate is a 30 on the scale.”

McCoy didn’t shy away from the power-hitter label when I spoke to him shortly before his mid-August promotion to Double-A. Even so, he sees himself as more than just an all-or-nothing masher.

“I would say I am [a power hitter],” acknowledged McCoy, whose 2026 ledger included a 9.2% walk rate and a 26.2% strikeout rate. “At the same time, I try to build my game around being gap-to-gap and getting base. Home runs will come if I put a good swing on the ball, but getting base hits plays too.”

Baseball wasn’t the only game he played at Essex, Maryland’s Our Lady of Mount Carmel High School. He also hit the hardwood — “I was actually pretty bad at basketball” — and the gridiron. Both a tight end and a defensive end, he received a walk-on offer to play collegiately, but as McCoy explained, “I didn’t love football like I love baseball.” Read the rest of this entry »

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