As an evaluator, what have you been able to take from the sustained player acquisition and development successes of the Rays and Brewers?
Brendan Gawlowski
Two of the prime examples of how holistic player evaluation is the right path forward. Both with great front offices, scouting staffs, and dev operations. Hand in glove operations.
Charles Bengal Tiger
I need a long-term young dynasty catcher. Who's most likely to have a solid MLB career out of Leo Bernal, Vahn Lackey, or Nathan Flewelling?
Brendan Gawlowski
Lackey but I like all three.
Charles Bengal Tiger
How has Charles Davalan looked at 2B?
Brendan Gawlowski
Promising but needs reps. Athleticism and range to do it…
Jeremy Bowers
Hi Brendan! Thanks for doing these. Every year, it's interesting to see evals and rankings update over the offseason even though there doesn't appear to be a lot of new information added. What's happening there? How do you approach an offseason where you have little new additional info.
Brendan Gawlowski
I'm not sure I understand your question. We've got a year of new info to work with. Sometimes that changes the forecast, often it doesn't, but either way it's worth reviewing the year and checking in.
jdbolick
Has your opinion of Kade Anderson changed after seeing his four seam with the MLB ball?
Brendan Gawlowski
I wish we'd been a little cooler on him on the midseason update. His FB grade will go down.
Jeremy Bowers
Re: evals over the offseason — apologies, mostly thinking about how you might approach looking at a player or an org given just new perspective but not necessarily any new looks.
Brendan Gawlowski
Lot of video/data analysis. Even a guy who looks fairly similar might have added a pitch, and it's good to go in and take a glance at how that looks on video.
bdolven
What do you think Jared Grimdlinger’s path looks like? Definitely not going to pitch? How quickly do you figure he’ll be expected to move?
Brendan Gawlowski
LAA sources say they're going to try the two-way path. Harder to go quickly that way but fun/exciting nonetheless.
Domingo Ayala
I went through old scouting reports on other sites and saw Profar had present 70 grade SS defense. Was that a misread or did Profar change over time?
Brendan Gawlowski
There were some injuries in there but the 70 might've been a little hot. I was a neophyte back then though.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Who will be the next good homegrown starting pitcher for the Dodgers?
Brendan Gawlowski
Zazueta is the leader in the clubhouse.
Domingo Ayala
Years ago when Moniak was selected first overall, I read a report that when he showed up to camp in the spring he already looked less athletic. Do you recall your first look at him that Spring?
Brendan Gawlowski
Didn't have one, but given that he's still playing a little center in big league games ten years after he was drafted, don't think athleticism was necessarily the prroblem there.
mbushskbum
I attended the AFL triple header in Goodyear Saturday and then Glendale at Salt River yesterday. Dax Kilby looked awesome yesterday. His speed was impressive as was how hard he hit his triple and ground rule double. How do you measure speed for your evals? I notice that FGs has Kilby as a 55 spd while MLB and BA have him at a 60. Curious what you look at to grade it.
Brendan Gawlowski
Home to first time is the anchor and I might throttle up or down a half grade depending on how playable it seems to be. Good example of a tool that's easier to see in all its glory when you're in the park. You get a better look at first step on defense or on the bases, and some video feeds make it tricky to get an accurate run time, too.
Brendan Gawlowski
Amusingly, I know of a scout who once got into a ton of trouble for putting 60 run times on 30 runners because he was doing it on video and didn't know that all the camera angles weren't synced up.
kingkash7788
How much has Nimmala risen in the last week and a bit?
Brendan Gawlowski
Holding steady.
Brendan Gawlowski
Maybe a tick down, I'm not ready to move him off of SS yet but I can see it going that way a little more every time I watch him.
mbushskbum
Have you seen Nathan Flewelling? How would you rate his catcher D in particular his framing. How to do you grade framing when watching players?
Brendan Gawlowski
Framing, for me, is easier on video; there's just so much else going on in the park, I have a hard time getting a good feel for it unless I'm really paying attention to just that at the expense of other stuff. But I'm looking for mobility, low stance, strong wrist, limited head movement. If most of the physical stuff looks good but the technique isn't there yet, that's fine, we can project there.
Brendan Gawlowski
Flewelling himself does a lot of that well, he's low to the ground and can funnel balls toward the plate from all directions.
George
Hey Brendan! In your Pitcher AFL notes you wrote that Susana had split his breaking ball into two shapes in your October 10th look. The shapes were pretty blended in his AAA looks. Did you hear anything about how that transpired in the AFL and whether it was an explicitly intentional change?
Brendan Gawlowski
There was enough velo separation between his slowest and fastest ones that I figured it was two pitches; he may have just been adding/subtracting. Regardless, I like that he's able to mix it up a little bit.
war2d2
Brendan! Right now is generally when my friends and I start our generalized plans for our annual spring training trip. What’s your general feeling for if there will be any games in late-February next year? Minor leaguers will still be under contract, right? If that doesn’t happen we’re also considering Cape Cod, or putting it off until October for the AFL. What’s your general feel for which one would be more enjoyable for a bunch of depressed middle-aged nerds?
Brendan Gawlowski
Really tough year to make plans, unfortunately. My crystal ball isn't any better than anybody else's. Maybe it's the hopeless optimist in me, but if I had to guess, I suspect we're looking at a similar deal to what we had in 2022, maybe with a few missed games, maybe not.
Brendan Gawlowski
As for your situation specifically, if you have the flexibility to make plans just a few weeks in advance, you might actually get a pretty good deal on hotels and attendance at big league games will be pretty light, which is a positive in my book.
Brendan Gawlowski
Alternatively, if you're cool with just going to the backfields, plan away.
Wright Abbot
Most of the Orioles players in the Fall League seem to be doing well. Anything caught your attention in particular?
Brendan Gawlowski
Pleasantly surprised by Honeycutt, I guess. More in a 40-ish sort of way than huge impact, but he didn't look overmatched at the plate.
Petey Bienel
Did Cayden Wallace show enough this season to restore the 40 status he had when he was in the KC system?
Brendan Gawlowski
That feels about right off the cuff, would need to dive into the defense to say for sure. He's reached the AA power grade he's had here for a while. Approach is not good though.
Charles Bengal Tiger
What position will Ace Reese eventually play?
Brendan Gawlowski
1B/LF.
Alex Remington
I saw the Mets just decided to hire more scouts. This is *maybe* more of a rant than a question, but why did so many teams decide to cut their scouting staffs in recent years, and is there any chance that this particular World Series matchup induces more teams to think about beefing back up in their scouting department?
Brendan Gawlowski
A combination of things. Some people think that the data is robust enough that you don't need scouts. Some leaders don't like that scouts come from a different perspective and have a different view on players. Some scouts don't do themselves any favors.
StuShea
If you're the White Sox, do you hold Colson Montgomery for another year? Can he improve?
Brendan Gawlowski
Yes, numbers tanked right when he got hurt. I buy that he was playing through something in the second half .
mbushskbum
I have never visited the backfields, can you give a brief or not suggestion of how to do that?
Brendan Gawlowski
Each splits its minor leaguers into four or five teams. Those teams play games on the backfields which are usually but not always (Athletics, Giants, Reds/Guardos kind of) very close to the stadium. There are usually but not always two games going on simultaneously (A/A+ teams or AA/AAA teams). There are a few fans but not many, more scouts/family/autograph hounds than anything else. It's a good time.
Ceiling of a no. 3, he'll likely be a 45 this winter, maybe 45+. Could reach the desert next year, take your pick on a 27 or 28 ETA.
Brendan Gawlowski
I should admit, of all the things I grade/project here, the ETA is the thing I spend the least time on. It's hard enough to project on the tools, and the timeline is often not dictated by talent and performance alone anyway.
apeloton
If you’re the Sox, do you feel like you have a Story/Arias situation? If so, what do you do about it this winter?
Brendan Gawlowski
Good problem to have. Cynically, it gives you an excuse to delay the clock on Arias. In the unlikely event that Story is both good and healthy at short, great, if not you have the guy you really want there anyway just about ready to go.
Honkus Wagner
has Walcott’s gotten enough work at SS in the AFL to quell any concerns about his defense there? will be interesting to see how Texas manages Jung and Seager going into next year
Brendan Gawlowski
I'd shift the framing. It's less a concern to quell than a case where Walcott is going to have to continually prove that he can play short throughout his career.
Pirates Hurdles
Hi Brendan, do you have any intel on why Derek Curiel didnt see any MiLB time this year? Coming from LSU I would have thought straight to A or A+ was in the plan. I guess the approach worked well enough with Murf Gray, but seems odd to me.
Brendan Gawlowski
Fairly typical for first round picks to not go out to A ball at the end of the year. Some do, some don't, wouldn't read too much into it.
swood
With the benefit of hindsight, who were some guys you were way too high on this year, and why were you too high?
Brendan Gawlowski
There are obviously a lot of guys who didn't reach their projection, but there were always reasons for putting them where I/we did. I think the ones that bug me the most are the ones where data led me astray. Putting too much weight on metal bat exit velos, over-grading a fastball due to shape generated with a minor league ball, things like that.
Brendan Gawlowski
If the question is more like "why were you too high on Dylan Beavers?" I think you can generally follow the trail of thought from the writeup.
maximus74
do you expect an over correction to the rabbit ball used in the minors from this year?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't really know what to expect. My guess is it will shift back toward where it was before but who knows. The league isn't great at making consistent baseballs.
Anonymous Member #46
Is there anything worth reading into from the 2026 draft class at all yet?
Brendan Gawlowski
Bits and pieces. Couple scouts told me they think Ace Reece looked more hitterish than they expected, which is interesting. But more things like that than a "it really looks like Team X screwed that one up" so far.
InsertWittyNameHere
Klaw said Aidan Miller looked good during the AFL, did you get a look at him too?
Brendan Gawlowski
I didn't, sorry, kept missing him. Pretty sure Eric has got him a couple times though, better question for him.
ryancorrigan10
If you had the 1.01 draft pick in a dynasty league this winter, who would you take with that pick?
Brendan Gawlowski
Not a fantasy guy but PCA/Witt/Elly/Caminero seem most appealing depending on your risk tolerance and positional scarcity needs.
dan norman lear
Who is the starting OF on Opening Day 2027, whenever that may be, for the Colorado Rockies?
Brendan Gawlowski
Carrigg.
beanbong
with how relievers are used in the postseason now (essentially every game for some), does that affect FV for pitchers projected to be late-inning relievers? Cade Smith ran out of gas but threw more innings than all the Cleveland staff except for Messick/Williams
Brendan Gawlowski
It's an interesting question. All projections are tricky, relievers moreso than just about anyone else. The very best relief prospects don't reliably turn into dominant closers. And on the other side of the coin, how could you project Cade Smith to halve his walk rate the second he got to the big leagues?
Brendan Gawlowski
Practically speaking, I'm finding that I'm projecting more and more guys who are starting in the minors into relief roles, and leaving their FV's higher than I perhaps would have a few years ago.
higginsford
Are you glued to Peacock for this absurd day game tipoff for the NBA's opening day?
Brendan Gawlowski
No. Bad opinion incoming but… I don't think basketball works.
padsfan96
Anyone from the back end of the top 100 list poised to take a leap on next year's list based on their 2nd half?
Brendan Gawlowski
I imagine 5-10 will. Kilby for sure. Luis Hernandez wouldn't surprise me. Maybe a guy like Michael Arroyo, now that he's played a little bit in the big leagues, and played well. I'll be pushing to knock him ahead of Celesten at the very least.
beanbong
Piggybacking on the reliever question, the recent Jaffe article highlights Ashby and points out that he could've won NLCS MVP. If you're starting a 7 game playoff series, would you rather have the lights-out fireman reliever or the 4.00 FIP #3 starter? I'd want the reliever, as I'm sure most would, but on opening day, would the answer be the same? Does (or should) that play a role in projecting players, or are we now introducing another tricky variable into an already tricky art?
Brendan Gawlowski
To complicate things further: I'm not so sure that the no. 3 starter couldn't just be the fireman reliever.
jaysfan39
Any thoughts on Jake Cook's first season in pro ball,?
Brendan Gawlowski
It was okay. Speed played a little better on the bases than it did in college, which is a good sign. Arrow flat or slightly down.
JMKUHNER
RE: Rockies OF… that's a LOT of ground for Cole Carigg to cover by himself…
Brendan Gawlowski
ah jeez, I read that as CF. I assume they'll run it back with McCarthy and Moniak in the corners… Boring answer, I know.
triplesandtea
Who in your mind was a "can't miss" prospect when you wrote them up (for either us or PIT) who ended up missing? Why did they miss? If for injury, can you also think of an example that wasn't an injury miss?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't think anybody is "can't" miss but I had a big grade on Tovar, and if you'd have told me at the end of his 3.5 win 2024 season that, two years later, his walk/strikeout numbers will go in the right direction AND he'd have a 55 wRC+ I'd have been floored.
Brendan Gawlowski
Answer there is that the approach got exploited in a big, big way.
apeloton
What’s the updated super bull case for kilby? Well rounded regular kinda guy, or might there be another gear even on top of that?
Brendan Gawlowski
The super bullish case is that he can hit .300 with a little power and play above average defense at short.
Brendan Gawlowski
It's quite a ceiling.
Domingo Ayala
Wait, why doesn't basketball work? I'm not a fan either but can you explain?
Brendan Gawlowski
Block/charge/no call is just a vibe.
John Church
Since higher draft picks produce the most value on average, do amateur scouting departments focus most of their resources on the top two rounds (say, top 75) or so some teams try to focus on building greater org depth and look to hit on later rd picks as well?
Brendan Gawlowski
Kind of both. The big picks get a lot of attention. Multiple decision makers will go personally see and talk to the seven-figure guys. But there are still plenty of people around pouring their heart and soul into looking for diamonds in the rough.
JMKUHNER
Does that make Veen or Condon attractive trade pieces? Challenge trade to a pitching rich team possibly (do pitching rich teams even exist given the number of pitchers used by teams per year these days…)
Brendan Gawlowski
It's worth giving Veen another look but the swing and miss is really scary there. The way the Rockies have developed Condon is different enough from my eval of him that I feel the need to dig deeper to figure out what the heck is going on.
maximus74
had zero idea that the NBA was trying out day games for opening "night" guess I'm not playing fantasy basketball this year
Brendan Gawlowski
I didn't either From a distance, the league seems like it's in kind of a weird place. I think it's true in all sports but maybe in basketball especially, a lot of the energy seems to come from stuff not happening on the court.
maximus74
Do you think draft pick trading will make it into this CBA?
Brendan Gawlowski
I'd be pleasantly surprised.
adamakbani99
Updated views on Tai Peete? Don't want to overreact to a small sample but between AA/AFL he's been great against better competition and has shown better swing decisions recently. Is a 45 FV fair now?
Brendan Gawlowski
I would not go crazy on AFL production. I'm encouraged that he's continuing to make things work as he's facing better pitching but my feelings on him haven't changed much. He's the kind of player I'd project as a regular as a scout, but one that teams have to value lower than that because he's so risk/reward.
Anonymous Member #46
If pick trading made its way into the CBA, what teams do you think would be most poised to take advantage? Who would be most aggressive in acquiring picks, and who would be aggressive in trading them away?
Brendan Gawlowski
The Rays would find a way to have 40 picks in the first ten rounds.
JMKUHNER
Ah, the vibe, just like a check swing (nothing defines "offering at the pitch" other than the umpires vibes)
Brendan Gawlowski
There's some of this in all sports. Pass interference, penalties in soccer, the strike zone at times in baseball history, etc. "Can I legally go to the hoop?" seems more fundamentally problematic to me but… Like I said, it's a bad opinion. We all have 'em.
ToastMalone
I saw Teruaki Sato was posted., but I didn’t see him on The Board. Any guess where he’ll slot in?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sneak peak at Ben's list… He's in 50 FV territory there.
dan norman lear
Rank the Ethans"
Brendan Gawlowski
Salas, Holliday, Pecko, Conrad, Roberts… I'm running out of Ethans, please send help.
triplesandtea
Maybe a better question for an article but what's something you think rookie scouts often overstate/understate relative to veteran scouts? What about something veterans more often miss than rookies?
Brendan Gawlowski
You get better at projecting the longer you do it. You start to get a feel for how certain bodies and traits will age. For veterans, as the game changes, there's a risk that you either don't adapt or just get really frustrated with how modern baseball is played, and that can seep into the evaluations a little bit.
Honkus Wagner
Caceras, A Gomez, Frias, Renteria…you get one to start a team with, who are you taking?
Brendan Gawlowski
Leaning Gomez, caveat that I need to give Renteria a longer look. Caceres feels a little out of place here.
dan norman lear
Sometimes we just have prospects, whom, no matter what we read about them, are skeptical they are ever going to be more than prospects. My recent one has been Tink Hence. Currently, it is Jamie Arnold. Do you have a prospect you are just skeptical of, regardless of hopeful promise.
Brendan Gawlowski
It's interesting you mentioned Hence, I had a very similar feeling to what you were describing. As a general matter, I tend to be skeptical of the corner guys with light power but good minor league swing data.
Brendan Gawlowski
Think I'll shut it down here today. Thanks as always for the questions, we'll do it again next week.
Caleb Bonemer produced a plethora of power in 2026. Splitting the season between High-A Winston Salem and Double-A Birmingham, the 21-year-old (as of earlier this month) slugger slammed 37 round-trippers while logging a .251/.380/.550 slash line over 595 plate appearances. His home run total was tops in the Chicago White Sox organization, as was his 139 wRC+.
Bonemer has continued to punish pitchers in the Arizona Fall League — his desert ledger includes four doubles, a triple, and a pair of dingers among his 11 hits in 39 at-bats — but his right-handed stroke isn’t why he is suiting up for the Glendale Desert Dogs. Positioned almost exclusively on the left side of the infield since being selected in the second round of the 2024 draft out of an Okemos, Michigan high school, Bonemer is being given a look in the outfield. I asked him about the move off of the diamond on AFL Media Day.
“I’m getting a lot of questions about that,” replied Bonemer, whose positional tryout has since comprised six games in center field, two in left field, and one in right field, this after playing just nine professional games on the grass previously. “The White Sox told me they want to see what I can do out there. I haven’t really played the outfield, so they want me to get more reps, more games under my belt.”
Regardless of where he ultimately ends up playing, his ability to belt baseballs is what has him bound for Chicago’s South Side. Currently ranked 95th on The Board and second in the White Sox system as a 50-FV prospect, Bonemer has been described by James Fegan as a hitter who produces high-end exit velocities, with an affinity for elevating balls to the pull side.
Boston Smith emerged as a prospect to watch this year. Notably, he did so while spending the latter portion of the campaign with his third organization in just his second professional season. Selected in the sixth round of the 2025 draft out of Wright State University by the Washington Nationals, Smith was subsequently swapped to the White Sox the following March in exchange for Curtis Mead, then dealt from Chicago to Seattle at this summer’s trade deadline. The Mariners acquired the 23-year-old left-handed-hitting catcher, along with Seranthony Domínguez and Nolan Jones, in exchange for Luis Castillo.
Smith’s 2026 performance was quite promising. Playing at three levels, primarily High-A and Double-A — he also appeared in eight games in Low-A — Smith slammed 31 home runs while slashing .274/.424/.566 with a 158 wRC+ over 493 plate appearances. Unranked when our White Sox Top Prospects list came out prior to the season, he is now ranked 13th in the Mariners system with a 40 FV.
In our Arizona Fall League preview — Smith is currently suiting up for the Peoria Javelinas — Eric Longenhagen described the Dayton, Ohio native as “a pull-oriented catcher” who “isn’t a good defender yet.” Our lead prospect analyst also offered an interesting comp, pointing to how “that had been true for Liam Hicks, who as a prospect was likewise “a small school, undersized guy who had outlier pull data.”
Smith discussed his player profile, as well as what it was like to catch one of baseball’s top pitching prospects upon joining a new organization, during the first week of the AFL season.
———
David Laurila: You caught Kade Anderson almost immediately after coming over in the trade. What was that experience like?
Boston Smith: “I don’t get too nervous anymore, but I was very nervous to catch him. I obviously knew who he was through college, he was the third-overall pick [in 2025], and then there was the year he was having. So yeah, I was nervous. I wanted to be trustworthy and help him succeed, not be catching him for the first time and having no idea what to do if all of a sudden he started struggling.”
Laurila: That didn’t happen. Looking at the game log, he pitched very well.
Smith: “Yes, and he was by far one of the most mature human beings I’ve ever been around. He was very generous, very helpful, helping me be calm before the game. He even brought me waters. Then, after the outing, the next day, talking about it.
“When he got the call to The Show — I had only known him for two weeks — he hugged me and said, ‘Hey man, thanks for everything you did for me,’ You just don’t see human beings like that too often, especially ones who are so talented. He’s a big league human being as well as a big league pitcher. It was really, really special to me to be able to catch him and know that I was a part of his minor league career for that little bit.”
Laurila: Those qualities aside, what was it like to he behind the plate for him? Have you ever caught anyone who approximates his combination of moxie and stuff? Read the rest of this entry »
Have you seen Jhonny Level at all this year? I think he's become underrated among the glut of young SFG MiF. Was skeptical on him at SS but looked great this year and just hits everything
Brendan Gawlowski
Several times. He doesn't have the same defensive ability or upside as the younger guys, and at some point he needs to get a little more selective. But it'd be wild if there was prospect fatigue settling in here already, he's a good hitter with sneaky pop. Easy T100 guy.
leoneforthird
With the move into Cardinals org Tai Peetehas seemed to take a big step forward. What did he do differently this year and is he a top 100 candidate
Brendan Gawlowski
Repeating High-A was a good idea. There's still a lot of swing and miss, probably too much for realistic T100 consideration, but it's really encouraging that it didn't skyrocket after he was promoted to AA. And of course, there are more than 100 or 110 interesting prospects with everyday upside!
ADoctolero
How would you rank Flora, Bresnahan, Keyner, Marquez and Cayama within the Giants system?
Brendan Gawlowskiedited
Flora, Marquez, Keyner, Bresnahan, Cayama.
apeloton
Last week you wrote that Dax kilby looks like one of the best guys in the league – with guys like Walcott here, that was a bit of a wow moment for me. Reading too much into it, or has the last week been that for you too with kilby?
Brendan Gawlowski
He doesn't have the same kind of freaky, elite upside that Walcott does but he looks like a high-probability regular. Solid defender at short, really good feel to hit.
nuxie
Which would be a greater concern for a hitter-chase rate,in zone contact or contact vs 95mph+?
Brendan Gawlowski
Depends; who do you have in mind?
kipsooth
If you're in AZ or have heard from others, how's Bonemer looking in the OF?
Brendan Gawlowskiedited
Raw. Not unexpected, most guys struggle in their initial exposure, particularly in center. It's not true in every case, but I think as a general matter you need to live with growing pains out there for at least a few dozen games before you have any idea if the guy has the instincts to play the outfield.
Alex Remington
With Josue De Paula set to potentially play a larger role for the Dodgers as they fight for their lives, is there anything that a prospect like him could show you in a short series like this that could meaningfully affect your view of his outlook?
Brendan Gawlowski
He could pull an Arozerena I guess. That's probably the best example of a guy playing himself into a significantly higher grade just based on postseason performance alone.
WonderWall
When you watch a player on defense, what are you looking for to say that this player can stick at the position?
Brendan Gawlowski
Depends where they are on the journey. If it's a teenager on the complex, speed/athleticism are big. You'd also like to see good hands/feel for the hop if it's an infield position, but reliability is a little less important at that stage. For a guy in Triple-A or the majors, the bar is higher, and you want to see him make plays that an average player at that position can handle.
drplantwrench
of the angels many holes on the major league roster, which one(s) do you think can be reasonably filled by their non existent farm? or will stan kroenke need to spend his way through everything
Brendan Gawlowski
I wouldn't say the farm is non existent, there are some dudes down there. They're kind of far away though, Rada could help in '27 but that's probably going to be a rough big league season regardless of what they do.
Bud Smith
Back in the day, John Sickels had a theory that prospects with boring names tend to get underrated a bit (Brad Miller was the example that I recall). Have you encountered anything like that?
Brendan Gawlowski
I appreciate the unique angle here but… no?
schwarber raleigh burns
Who's a more promising version of the Joey Gallo archetype: Spencer Jones or Lazaro Montes?
Brendan Gawlowski
They take different routes to a similar place. I'd maybe lean Jones but they're fairly close together on my personal pref.
apeloton
Sss in full effect, but davalan hasn’t been hitting much in the afl – any sense of what the balance is of that being due to focusing more on fielding/it’s the hardest competition he’s faced/just random?
Brendan Gawlowski
It's a handful of games.
millvillemeltdown
on the subject of defense: how much are the "instincts" actually coachable? i'm spoiled as a frisbee player because i have a large, slow object that has fairly observable and predictable flight patterns, but i learned to make reads pretty fast. i don't know how that translates to baseball, esp supremely gifted athletes who seem to struggle to track fly balls
Brendan Gawlowski
I think good instincts give you a higher baseline from which to start. Guys can/do get better at things like tracking a ball in the air or reading a hop on the ground, but some people have a lower ceiling than others.
ADoctolero
Would it be fair to say that no farm system has jumped further up the power rankings than the Giants in the last calendar year?
Brendan Gawlowski
They're up there. St. Louis has an argument too. Atlanta is coming from a lower spot on the rankings but that system's up a decent bit, too.
Solitaire
Would you want to be a scout back in the pre-draft, no tech, no advance knowledge era? When a scout might show up at a game not knowing who anyone was looking for diamonds in the rough? Or is knowing who and what to look for, getting to review video and radar and such make it more enjoyable?
Brendan Gawlowski
Positives and negatives to both environments. The old days probably a tiny bit more fun but travel logistics were brutal back then.
nuxie
Alexander frias’s numbers dropped post trade.any concerns?
Brendan Gawlowski
No.
Kyler Jesanis
Who are some of the biggest risers since mid season reports?
Brendan Gawlowski
Kilby and Flewelling for me personally. Bernal has probably played his way onto the T100.
Ice Cream Helmet
How deep into off-the-field stuff do teams investigate potential draft picks to make sure they guy isn't a knucklehead? Do they ever hire like PIs or psychologists to screen kids?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't know about a PI but teams do their homework.
epigene13
Have you gotten any looks at Angeibel Gomez in the AFL, and if so, what were your impressions?
I know we are looking at the "whole" player, but can't we take a minute to appreciate how good Josue De Paula must be to go from Double A to be in consideration to start on the Dodgers in the playoffs?
Brendan Gawlowski
He's very good.
schwarber raleigh burns
Have you done much youth scouting overseas? I'd imagine a lot of that is still low-tech wild west style. Or am I naive and do these teams know every 14 year old worth looking at?
Brendan Gawlowski
Zero personally. Some teams are more organized than others in Latin America but there's a limit to how deep into the future you can peer when you're evaluating a 14 year old. There are tons of guys, pitchers especially, who don't pop until late into their teen years.
toshi
If you were in charge of the Mariners, would you be comfortable with Young and Emerson at 2B and SS next year?
Brendan Gawlowski
Young yes, Emerson I'd sure want to have a capable Plan B on hand.
Big Fan
Hello BG!
Brendan Gawlowski
Hello Big Fan
TheHeavy217
For the past several years one of the big talking points during the postseason has been how important it is for teams to have the ability to hit home runs. Yet Milwaukee, Cleveland and Tampa were 29th, 27th and 22nd respectively in that category. Not to mention they were right next to each other on the team ISO leaderboard (25th thru 27th). Why does this work for them? More specifically, how has Milwaukee been able to maintain the best OBP and nearly the best walk rate over the last couple seasons with so little power?
Brendan Gawlowski
Two slightly different things here. The home run factor in the postseason is magnified because there are fewer runs/baserunners in general, which means that homers have a disproportionate impact on run scoring relative to the regular season.
Brendan Gawlowski
To the question of how have teams who don't really hit homers are succeeding this postseason: There are still multiple ways to be successful and there's a lot of variance in a short series.
Brendan Gawlowski
As for Milwaukee: They have a lot of guys with really good approaches and hit tools. And, as Sam Miller said more eloquently than I'll paraphrase in one of his newsletters, there are some real benefits to being the team that hustles in an otherwise non-hustle league
Brendan Gawlowski
It's not that they get a ton of value in the aggregate out of infield groundballs but they squeeze more out of them than anybody else.
Jasperdog3329
Is S. Walcott on the major league roster and starting next spring? Timeline for J. Farmelo who has tools but has lost so much time to injuries?
Brendan Gawlowski
Walcott I'd be very surprised, for a couple reasons. He's blocked, for one, but also not ready. I spoke with a scout who made a persuasive case that he's the kind of player who could use a full year in Triple-A.
Brendan Gawlowski
Farmelo is another one who I don't think is on the fast track. Wouldn't be surprised if he needs most/all of '27 at Double-A. I think even an 85th-90th percentile season has him getting to Triple-A late in the summer.
Sonny L
After attending a lot of MiLB games at different levels I’m in awe of anyone who can ID an A ball player beyond ‘that guy is better than everyone here’ with any certainty that it means ‘he’ll play in the league’ or ‘he’s a star.’ What are markers at that level (hitter side) you found useful
Brendan Gawlowski
Nobody's good enough to tell you with certainty how many WAR a 20 year old in A ball is going to accrue in his career, but some blend of size/athleticism/tools/physical projection can usually tell you who's got a shot to be impactful.
mbushskbum
Did you have a chance to see Sam Horn, GDD? Does he have a future in MLB?
How concerned are you about Emerson going forward?
Brendan Gawlowski
I still think he's going to be a good player. But if I'm trying to contend next year, I don't think I'd plan on him as a "set it and forget it" SS from day one.
triplesandtea
Do you enjoy seeing a prospect attempt to make the knuckleballer conversion?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sure. Tend to think more guys should play around with it.
longsuffering
Is there a guy in the Jays org that no-one is talking about? I was wondering if Ryan Sprock might be that guy.
Brendan Gawlowski
I've just about wrapped up Toronto's list. He'll be on there, likely as a 40 unless sources are all over the guy in a way I'm not anticipating.
Tommyfastball
When you look at a guy like Justin Gonzales, what are the things that you'd see to say "Wow, he's going elite" as opposed to "Let's see how this goes…"
Brendan Gawlowski
I'm more in the 'let's see how this goes' camp with him. He's got a lot going for him, and the power is clearly nuts. Odd swing, stiffer mover than most big prospects. It's not a slam dunk case where everything lines up.
wheelhouse
What’s the deal with George Lombard Jr.? Does he have to move off the position
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't have anticipate that. I think he can be above average at short, and I'm the low man here on his glove.
Michael
In your eyes, what happened with someone like Jasson Dominguez? Did pressure of being 'The Martian' get to him? Constant analysis of defensive miscues got to his head? Is there a post-prospect hype arc he could conceivably stumble upon? League average hitter in '25 with semi-regular at-bats…
Brendan Gawlowski
From what I can gather, there seems to have been a sizable gap between how baseball people evaluated him as a player — both publically and with teams — and how the public perceived his talent. Eric has a theory that the baseball card community is a factor here, particularly with players from the Yankees.
Brendan Gawlowski
And I can buy that.
Brendan Gawlowski
As a player, he projected as a regular but not a star. Guys like that fall short all the time.
Brendan Gawlowski
As for Dominguez himself, a second act as a 110-115 wRC+ player with shoddy defense in some kind of role — maybe more against righties than lefties? — wouldn't shock me.
apeloton
Emma Rodriguez and Mike Sirota have kinda similar offensive profiles and are the same age – does erod’s injury history explain the 2 grade gap between them? Something else I’m missing?
Brendan Gawlowski
It's a factor. The bigger thing is that it looks like Rodriguez will be vulnerable in a huge swath of the strike zone in a way that Sirota won't.
triplesandtea
Reverse of the Dominguez question – who is the player in recent memory that baseball folks were way, way higher on than the general fan public?
Brendan Gawlowski
This is one where different pockets will have different answers. The A's, for instance, were way higher on Esteury Ruiz… For scouts it'll often be toolsy guys with scary data… I really liked Spencer Jones the two times I saw him as a scout and was kind of oblivious to how he was a punchline online for all the strikeouts.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Hao-Yu Lee had a decent but not overwhelming rookie season. Is there another gear?
Brendan Gawlowski
I hope so, he's so fun to watch. He's limited enough defensively that I think "good reserve where you pick your spots/stretches to play him" is the reasonable projection.
Sonny L
Muni’s in zone fastball issues sure came out against Cleveland. Is this a case where over 162 enough pitchers will miss the hole and he punishes but in October better and more focused arms hammer that spot until he adjusts?
Brendan Gawlowski
Everybody suffers a little in the postseason as the competition gets tougher.
Brendan Gawlowski
But also, stuff happens in five games
Brendan Gawlowski
In five games from August 1 through August 6, he hit .136 /.208 /.182 with 12 K's and one double in 24 PA's.
Brendan Gawlowski
In five games from May 6 to May 12 he hit .111 /.238 /.278 with 12 strikeouts in 21 PA's against the mighty Angels/Mariners/Royals.
Andrew
Kellon Lindsay and Joendry Vargas are their stats inflated by the minor league hitting environment?
Brendan Gawlowski
Them and everybody else this year.
adbernardi
Much hope left for Carson Williams? Or is he an odd man out in Tampa?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't think he's going to hit.
Big Fan
Any updated Braves news you haven't shared with us before? The trade deadline refresh was much appreciated, and there were slew of promotions after that.
Brendan Gawlowski
Nothing beyond what I published in the AZ notes. I suspect they'll go fairly early in the list cycle.
smoothio
What did Salas’ performance with the Padres do to his prospect ranking?
Brendan Gawlowski
Very little, more because he's already 10th on our board. Not much room for us to move him!
Tristan
Unless he morphs into a LF this offseason, Sean Keys seems awfully blocked in Toronto. But he's also look a lot like the kind of bat they could use, particularly with the power and patience profile. Could he be a serviceable outfielder with reps, pushing others to DH at bats? Or do the Jays look for a trade partner? They often deal with the Guardians, who sure don't seem inclined to use Bibee for much this postseason…
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't think you're going to flip him for Tanner Bibee, if that's the question behind the question. You can find ways to get him in the game as a PH or at DH with occasional starts elsewhere. I think trying him in left and seeing how it looks is a reasonable idea. If he hits, they'll find a way to get the bat in there.
Tommyfastball
Are you taking an Amador victory lap?
Brendan Gawlowski
No, but glad he's a relevant player for COL again and cautiously optimistic that there's still a regular in there.
Brendan Gawlowski
You can never take a victory lap in this business.
Sonny L
If he’s not going to hit is Carson Williams the in-house all glove SS when Walls gets expensive?
Brendan Gawlowski
Could be, yeah.
Tommyfastball
You mentioned J. Gonz. was stiff. I've seen that critique for lots of guys. Have you ever seen someone get considerably less stiff? Like they went all yoga and loosened up their core?
Brendan Gawlowski
Usually goes the other way. There was a really good article 10 years ago or so about how Justin Verlander revived his career by limbering up, but that was more of a case where he'd let his flexibility atrophy a little bit rather than finding something brand new.
pdunes
How much of a leap do you expect Konkor Griffin to make next year?
Brendan Gawlowski
A pretty big one. I expect him to be very good next year.
crossedup
Were you able to look into some of the low lower Mariners starters like Jack Bowery?
Brendan Gawlowski
Thank you for your patience. Bowery/Easterly look like HM/35+ types. I like the strikes but they're succeeding by leaning on good execution of shapely but not particularly nasty secondaries. Never say never in this era but they don't strike me as especially projectable, either.
rdf8585
What do you make of what Vance Honeycutt did late in the season in AA and so far in the Arizona Fall League?
Brendan Gawlowski
I liked him more than I thought I was going to. Flawed hitter, still see a path to value as a good glove/danger bat off the bench even if he's pretty limited at the plate.
tmh198
Can Lazaro Montes become Murakami-lite (poor BA, acceptable OBP(.320's-.330's?), 35+ HRs?
Brendan Gawlowski
That's the projection right there.
tmh198
Does Anthony Eyanson have a chance to break camp in the rotation, or are we likely looking at May/Jun debut?
Brendan Gawlowski
~90/10 the latter.
Exile in St. Louis
Any thoughts on Nehomar Ochoa at the AFL? Classic big tool, big swing & miss profile the Dana Brown-led Astros fell for.
Brendan Gawlowski
Bench bat.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Who will emerge from the scrum to become the Cardinals' near- and long-term catcher?
Brendan Gawlowski
Reminds me of the situation the Jays were in about five years ago, lot of potential options, tough to go wrong. I've been a Bernal fan for a while, why stop now.
pdunes
Best baseball comp for Arch Manning?
Brendan Gawlowski
Jackson Holliday?
Chuck Berry
How badly has Winston Santos fallen in rankings this year :'(
Brendan Gawlowski
Sigh. From a valuation perspective, clearly a lot. We'll see how stubborn I'm feeling come the Rangers list.
tmh198
What's Kendry Chourio's upside?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sonny Gray.
Patrick Burke
What happened with Elmer Rodriguez this season? So you still see him being successful in the majors as he was in AAA?
Brendan Gawlowski
Very effective in AAA, major league cameos shone a bright light on his crudeness as a strike thrower. Still like him as a GB-generating SP prospect.
apeloton
Thanks for all the answers!
Brendan Gawlowski
And thank you for all the questions, always fun to hang out. Disappointed about the lack of enclave chat but like that we got to hit on a bunch of different teams/some players we don't often get to here. Let's do it again next eek.
I’m rolling out a bunch of notes from my recent trip to Arizona. Last week, I wrote about some of the top hitters in the Arizona Fall League, as well as a few backfields standouts for the Royals, Giants, and Padres. Today, we’ll dive into some of the pitchers from the AFL.
Susana has one of the strongest arms in professional baseball. The big righty sits 101-103, and generates it with a low-to-moderate effort delivery. For all its velo, Susana’s fastball doesn’t have bat-missing shape, and even the Fall Leaguers he faced were generally able to get the bat on the ball. His feel for release was off to start the game, and he frequently missed up early in the outing. Hitters couldn’t barrel it in the zone, though, and that will likely continue to be the case for Susana as long as he’s able to live anywhere near that velocity band.
Susana worked with two breaking balls. He used an occasional upper-80s slider, usually just as a way to get hitters off his primary secondary, a mid-80s sweeper. There aren’t a lot of guys who can get 15 inches of break on an 85-mph sweeper, but few pitchers have Susana’s arm talent. Read the rest of this entry »
I watched eight Arizona Fall League games over the last week, and today’s a good time to empty the notebook on some of the position players I saw. I’ve got a mix of updates on top prospects and notes on a couple off-the-radar names who impressed me. Let’s get to it, starting with perhaps the best player in the league.
Kilby looks great as a hitter. He’s quick and direct to the ball, he doesn’t leak early, his swing stays on plane forever, he adjusts well off the fastball, and he can use the whole field. He can seemingly get his hands everywhere, and the way he’s able to pull them in and turn around velocity is in a class with the Max Clarks and Kevin McGonigles of the world.
Kilby is also smooth and balanced at shortstop, rangy with a good internal clock. His throwing stroke looks pushy when he has time, but he can let it rip when he needs to get rid of the ball quickly. He looked like the best player on the field, and his stock surged for both Eric and me during my time in Arizona. Read the rest of this entry »
Aidan Miller might be the Philadelphia Phillies’ next shortstop, and his health will go a long way to determining if (and when) that happens. Drafted 27th overall in 2023 out of a New Port Richey, Florida high school, the sweet-swinging 22-year-old missed most of this past season due to a back injury. Diagnosed with discogenic pain and facet inflammation in the lumbar spine, Miller underwent a radiofrequency ablation procedure in early June. He saw action in just eight games, half of them for Double-A Reading in the Eastern League playoffs.
He’d come into the season with a legitimate chance to debut in the majors. Ranked atop our 2026 Phillies Top Prospects list when it came out in January, Miller was coming off of a 2025 campaign that saw him rake to the tune of a 137 wRC+ between Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley, with all but 37 of his 526 plate appearances coming at the lower of the two levels. Moreover, he’d gone deep 14 times and swiped 59 bases. With a first-round pedigree and a 55 FV grade, he was on the doorstep of breaking into Philadelphia’s lineup… until an already nagging issue morphed into one that required intervention.
Miller is currently getting back into the swing of things in the Arizona Fall League, and as he explained to me last week, he is doing so by dialing back how many swings he takes. Regardless of the role it may have played in his lower back woes, his excessive cage work likely did him no favors. Read the rest of this entry »
I just finished an extended trip to watch instructs and the Arizona Fall League, and I’ve got enough in the notebook for a few posts. We’ll start with some of the looks I got at Royals, Giants, and Padres prospects on the backfields and, in a few cases, during the AFL as well. Let’s hop to it.
We’ll start with the guy people will ask about first. Gomez is a tapered 6-foot-2. While he isn’t a freaky athlete in the Elly De La Cruz mold, he’s limber and has a fast bat for a kid his age. Facing some of the best stuff of his life, his feel for hitting stood out. Gomez is athletic in the box, and he was able to fight off above-average velo on the hands, turn around 97 above the belt, and flatten the bat and hit a line drive on a hard fastball up, all while holding his own versus spin. He fouled off a couple tough sliders and took one just beneath the zone. He wasn’t perfect — he expanded the zone a few times and chased a curve in the dirt — but it was a really impressive showing in context.
Where does this go from here? To my eye, Gomez doesn’t look like an early-mature guy, but he also isn’t someone who screams “physical projection” in the way that, say, Sebastian Walcott did at his age. Gomez already has average measurable power, and while there’s room for him to grow into more, my projection leans closer to “comfortably plus” than “80.” Read the rest of this entry »
The 34th Arizona Fall League season opens today with three games staggered across the Phoenix metro area. There are future stars in the Fall League every year, as well as many more workmanlike players who are competing for a 40-man roster spot on next year’s club. It’s a wonderful league for teams to develop and scout prospects because of the cross section of talent it tends to include (there are usually lots of good position player prospects), its timing (which allows players who were injured during the regular season to catch up on reps), and its structure (which allows for six weeks of steady looks). Teams almost always take the AFL seriously and send players who they want to see more of, or want to test. Being on the roster is, on its own, a flare for people like me who are looking for future big leaguers. It’s an indication that a player is worth paying attention to from a scouting standpoint even if I didn’t know the guy’s name until I saw the roster.
Previewing this league with prospects’ scouting reports risks putting the cart before the horse because the scouting part has yet to happen. I want to give you the notes I already have, to play the hits and make sure you have Jarlin Susana and Arjun Nimmala reports and tool grades in front of you right now (don’t worry, you will), but a huge part of the pro scouting exercise that is the Arizona Fall League is mining for the deeper-cut prospects, and I can’t tell you who those guys are going to be just yet. Still, I can show you the initial steps I take to prepare to go to the field and try to systematically unearth these guys, give you the tools to do so on your own, and, in the process, let know you who it is I’m most curious and excited to learn more about for the next six weeks.
The players who become scouting “targets” tend to fall into a handful of categories: famous players, potential dudes, statistical performers, and players in a key roster situation. Read the rest of this entry »
While there was only one Instructional League game in the Valley on Monday, Tuesday had three options: Los Naranjeros de Hermosillo (a Mexican Pacific League team from Sonora, the Mexican State immediately south of Arizona) was at the Athletics’ facility in Mesa, while the Royals (hosting the Reds) and the Rangers (hosting the Padres) would have simultaneous games at their shared complex in Surprise. I carpooled with Baseball America contributor and photographer, Bill Mitchell, to the northwest end of the metro for those games, with two cameras in tow.
Within minutes of getting to Surprise, I learned that Joe Musgrove and Lucas Giolito were making rehab appearances for the Padres, and that the Royals-Reds game was slated for 11 innings. About 10 minutes before first pitch, I set up a camera at the Royals’ field and began to make my way over to the Rangers’ side to watch Giolito and Musgrove in real time. While anxiously daydreaming about arriving just a tad late to the other field, I wasn’t paying attention to my surroundings and was nearly hit by an errant Steven Zobac long-toss throw, which whizzed past my shins. Halfway across the parking lot, I was relieved when I heard music coming from the Rangers’ field — they were still getting loose. I made it in time. Read the rest of this entry »
