It’s time for another cycle of prospect lists, and as I’ve become accustomed to doing for the last few seasons, I’m starting with scouting reports on pro players in foreign leagues, with a focus on players available for MLB free agency this offseason. On The Board, you can see a fresh batch of scouting reports and evaluations for relevant players from Nippon Professional Baseball, the Korea Baseball Organization, and the Chinese Professional Baseball League in Taiwan, as well as reports on some young players I’ve identified as potentially impactful long-term prospects. For those who need a crash course on the age- and pro experience-driven lines of demarcation that dictate how MLB teams sign international players, I’d point you to a number of MLB.com glossary entries, including those on international free agency for those in Asian pro leagues, international amateur free agency and bonus pool restrictions, the Japanese posting system, and the Korean posting system.
It can be overwhelming to sift through so many different types of players on that section of The Board — it’s a real apples and oranges situation when we’re talking about some guys who are in their 30s and others who are still teenagers — so I’ve got many of them broken into digestible subgroups below. You’ll notice that some players appear across multiple categories. The Board has each player’s full scouting report and tool grades — think of this as more of a table of contents. Read the rest of this entry »
Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy from sunny Tempe, Arizona where last weekend I went people watching up by the college to see some Halloween craziness, and instead the lady sitting next to me at the bar had a seizure or a stroke or something and I got to play paramedic in front of like 24 people. Sometimes things don’t go the way you plan.
12:16
AN1: How are you feeling on Creed Willems? He has smoked some balls out west. Doesn’t K a ton either and is 21 for the first half of 2025. Anything there?
12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll take the under. He has power but chases a ton for a 1B and I’m not sure how long he’s going to be athletically viable. Some model-driven team would probably take him in a deal, though.
12:18
Dk: Would you trade Tong, Williams and Gilbert for Crochet? Would it be enough?
12:20
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d be trying to do better than that (I’d rather have Sproat than either Tong or Gilbert by kind of a lot, and I’d need to pry away at least one of Baty or Ronny Mo) but I appreciate you including Jett, who I think is gonna be good.
12:20
Scott M.: What do you make of Josue Briceno and Thayron Liranzo’s AFL performances so far? And what’s the likelihood either will stick at catcher?
We’ve reached the point in the Arizona Fall League calendar when the weather has officially shifted toward autumn, which makes being at the ballpark during the day about as close to heaven as one can get. The return of great weather also means the return of the Valley’s snowbirds, the (usually retired) folks who only live here during the pleasant time of year. The highways are suddenly very full again, and I’ve become a crabby baby about driving all the way to the West Valley for day games that then force me to drive home in rush hour traffic made more harrowing by the uptick in people. Opportunities to double up at East Valley stadiums are now golden, and I’ll be at Salt River and then Mesa each of the next couple of days.
We’re now deep enough into the AFL schedule that I’m starting to shift my in-person scouting focus toward hitters, especially when pitchers I’ve already seen a couple of times are in the game. It means spending more time down the baselines rather than behind home plate and (probably) more hitter-focused pieces like this for the next couple of weeks. But for now… Read the rest of this entry »
Travis Ice and I have begun early work on the Los Angeles Angels and Sacramento Athletics prospect lists, and because both franchises’ prospects are on the Mesa Solar Sox roster, I spent most of last week seeing whatever game they were playing.
At this point in the Fall League, the leaders in games played have laced up their spikes only eight or nine times. Anything you’ve read about this year’s AFL so far has encompassed just two weeks of part-time play for any given player. Remember this is a hitter-friendly league for a number of both developmental and environmental reasons, and that triple slash lines in this league are not a reliable proxy for talent.
Offensive standards at first base are quite high, and even though the collective performance of this year’s group was down relative to recent norms (by kind of a lot), it’s still a position from which we expect good players and prospects to provide impact power. Morgan has been a relevant prospect since high school, but a relative lack of power has tended to cap his projection into more of a part-time first base/outfield role.
During the 2024 regular season it looked like Morgan was more often taking max-effort swings and selling out for power. He reached Double-A and slugged .483 across three levels, but his middling raw strength and opposite-field tendency as a hitter (plus elevated chase rates relative to his career norms) suggested this was maybe not the best approach for him. In the Fall League, Morgan has been more balanced, really taking enormous hacks only in favorable counts. He’s still stinging the ball in a way that indicates he’ll be a doubles machine, and he seems less vulnerable to fastballs up and away than he did during the summer. We don’t have a way of truly knowing how Morgan will handle elevated big league fastballs until he faces them, but a more balanced, contact-oriented style of hitting is going to give him a much better chance of covering the top of the zone and being a more complete hitter. (An aside: Watch A’s prospect Denzel Clarke go first-to-third at the video’s 1:55 mark.)
I think the absolute ceiling for his production looks something like Brandon Belt’s or Daniel Murphy’s pre-Juiced Ball era statline. More likely Morgan’s output will look something like Ji Man Choi’s or LaMonte Wade Jr.’s. Morgan is not a guy who is going to hit 20 homers per year, but a heady, well-rounded offensive skillset coupled with his excellent, profile-seasoning first base defense make him better than the 40 FV grade player I evaluated him as during the year. He is making a case to be elevated into the back of this offseason’s Top 100 list.
I gave Durbin short shrift last year even after his .353/.456/.588 line in the 2023 Fall League. He had a good 2024 at Triple-A Scranton, including a strong second half after he returned from a fractured wrist. Durbin is short — really short, he’s 5-foot-6 — but he’s not small; he’s built like a little tank. His compact, stocky build helps keep his swing short and consistently on time to pull the baseball. His quality of contact in 2024 was commensurate with a guy who slugs under .400 at the big league level, but he was dealing with an injury that typically impacts contact quality for a while after recovery.
Perhaps most importantly, Durbin looks fine at both second and third base and has also been playing all over the outfield. Defensive versatility might be his key to being rostered consistently. Durbin ran a jailbreak 4.10 for me last week, but his home-to-first times have been close to 4.4 seconds on normal swings. That’s not blazing and slower than what’s typical of a decent center fielder, but any kind of outfield viability would help the former Division-III standout become an improbable big leaguer. Durbin has played sparingly in center field during his career, and it’s going to be very difficult to evaluate him there this Fall League unless he starts getting reps there every day, which I think is unlikely. It’s more of a thing to watch develop into next spring.
Alderman, a 2023 second round pick out of Ole Miss who had some of the best exit velocities in that draft class, is currently leading the AFL with six home runs. He hit one on Friday at a whopping 119.5 mph. It went out on a line, ricocheting off the side of the batter’s eye, which you can see in this frame:
Friday, Marlins outfielder Kemp Alderman hit a homer that left Salt River Fields in a real hurry, at 119.5 mph. pic.twitter.com/HBvj2F0oud
Like Durbin, Alderman missed time in 2024 with a broken hand. It’s good to see Alderman hitting with elite peak power coming off of this particular injury, but I’d advise everyone to pump the breaks on his overall prospectdom at this time. He loads his hands so deep, high, and late that I worry he’ll struggle against better velocity as he climbs the minors. Though Alderman’s regular-season strikeout rates don’t raise alarm, I don’t think 30-ish games at each A-ball level is a meaningful sample, especially for a draft pick out of an SEC school. It’s fine to be hopeful that I’m wrong or that Alderman will make necessary adjustments once better stuff starts beating him, and he clearly has the power to clear the offensive bar at a corner outfield spot. But even though he’s raking out here, he does not have an opinion-altering look. I know Marlins fans have gone through this a lot lately, where they have a minor leaguer with elite power but an insufficient hit tool to profile (Peyton Burdick, Griffin Conine, Jerar Encarnacion), and I worry Alderman is another of this ilk.
Alert Ben Lindbergh, we have a knuckler. The 25-year-old Kirby was an undrafted free agent out of UConn in 2023 and spent most of 2024 in Fort Myers either on the Complex or FSL roster. His knuckleball needs to be more consistent for him to be considered a prospect at all, but for now it’s a lot of fun to watch a guy whose primary pitch is his knuckler.
The Arizona Fall League has a knuckleballer this year, Twins righty Devin Kirby. pic.twitter.com/Z6c7ik6vH4
These players have had their scouting reports added to the Fall League tab on The Board. Head over there to check out their tool grades and scouting reports.
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from beautiful Tempe where the temps have finally dipped after something like 20 days in a row of record highs.
12:12
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m going to the two east valley Fall League games today and want to put the bow on another dispatch of notes so I’ll likely keep this chat tight to the top of the hour.
12:13
Eric A Longenhagen: OKay let’s boogie…
12:13
Sox fan: Hey Eric – thanks for all your prospects content. Wondering when you’ll have any updates on the upcoming international signing periods. Particularly interested in any Red Sox related intel. Thanks!
12:14
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, I’ve got a bunch of big $ names and team for the next couple of years in my notes and I’ll be building out the $1mil+ version of The Board for publication in the next few weeks…
12:15
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t have any Boston guys for ’25 in my notes, they’ve tended to spread out medium sized bonuses across their entire class rather than spend $2mil+ on any one guy and I imagine that’s the case again
Cole Young is one of the shining stars of Seattle’s system. Slotted in at no. 2 with a 50 FV grade when our Mariners Top Prospects list was published in mid-summer, the 21-year-old middle infielder is coming off a second full professional season during which he slashed .271/.369/.390 with nine home runs and a 119 wRC+ over 552 plate appearances with Double-A Arkansas. Displaying above-average contact skills — a selling point when he was drafted 21st overall out of Wexford, Pennsylvania’s North Allegheny High School in 2022 — he had a 15.8% strikeout rate to go with a 12.1% walk rate.
The extent to which he will hit for power as he continues to mature was on my mind when I spoke to him prior to an Arizona Fall League game this past weekend (Young has since been removed from the Peoria Javelinas roster; per a source, he was dealing with wrist discomfort, an issue dating back to the regular season). Back in July, Eric Longenhagen wrote that Young has “added considerable bulk to his frame” since entering pro ball, and noted that “changes he’s made to his swing have resulted in him trading some contact for power.”
Asked about our lead prospect analyst’s observations, Young said that he now weighs 200 pounds, up from 190 a year ago, and is “a lot stronger after going to lifting camp” over the offseason. He sees his ideal weight in the 195-200 pound range, allowing him to “still be athletic, but also be able to hit the ball hard.” Read the rest of this entry »
This past Saturday, the Arizona Fall League played host to a tripleheader, with start times staggered enough to see at least most of all three contests at the various ballparks in the eastern part of the Phoenix metro area. My notes and thoughts on the standouts from that day, as well as Monday’s solo game in Peoria, are below. You can find the end-of-year reports and grades on the 2024 Fall Leaguers on the Fall League tab of The Board. Read the rest of this entry »
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, where it is somehow still 100 degrees every day. I’ve got an instructs game today at 11 so we’ll keep today’s chat pretty tight to the hour so I can prep my gear and drive there. I have a cat draped over one forearm right now, this is a very popular chat.
12:04
James: Always appreciate that chats, Eric! SD system has thinned quite a bit, who is the next potential dude behind De Vries
12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: I think Humberto Cruz has a shot to be a big deal. Super smooth and projectable, could have premium command and a couple plus pitches.
12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: Sounds like he’s been shut down for the year, but the HS kids from the draft class throw this weekend here in AZ so I’m hoping to see Mayfield then. He could also be an answer to your question.
12:06
Guest: how much does TJ knock Christian Scott down, FV-wise and future role-wise?
12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: Still think he’ll start and be a mid-rotation guy (provided the rehab goes well, etc.).
Every summer, the Midwest Scouts Association, which is made up of scouting personnel from all 30 major league organizations, invites 50 high school players from throughout the region to participate in a two-day event in Kansas City. The event features a showcase portion at the Kansas City Royals’ Urban Youth Academy, as well as a seven-inning doubleheader the following day at Kauffman Stadium. It’s a fantastic opportunity to get a snapshot of how many of the top high school prospects in next year’s draft class look going into their senior year, with a handful of incoming juniors in the mix as well. The players are listed here in order of my preference based solely on my look from this particular event. With that, let’s take a look at some 2025 draft-eligible Midwest prep prospects.
Position Players
Landon Schaefer, SS, Fayetteville, AR College Commitment: Arkansas
Schaefer is committed to his hometown Razorbacks, but he’s going to get a lot of attention from amateur scouts leading up to the 2025 draft. He has a lean, athletic frame that leaves plenty of room to project on both his body and his tools. He hits out of an upright, square setup, and uses an abbreviated leg kick to trigger his long stride. Schaefer has a deep hand load that produces a 45-degree bat angle, which generates loft as he whips it through the hitting zone with above-average bat speed. He flashed above-average raw power to the pull side during batting practice and consistently did a nice job of incorporating his lower half in his hacks.
Defensively, Schaefer shows soft hands that look more than capable of staying up the middle on the dirt. He controls his 6-foot-3 frame well when ranging laterally, and while he isn’t overly twitchy, there’s a hint of quick-twitch in his movements, which are smooth and fluid overall. Right now, Schaefer has fringe-average arm strength at best, but given how projectable his frame is and how good of an athlete he is, it’s safe to anticipate that he’ll have at least average arm strength in the future. While there are some concerns to point to regarding whether he stays at shortstop long-term, the actions, body control, and hands he displayed give me confidence that he’ll be at least an above-average defender at second base if he ultimately moves off shortstop. Overall, it’s a well-rounded profile that brings value on both sides of the ball, and I think there will be quite a bit of buzz around Schaefer prior to next year’s draft.
Jackson Akin, SS, Lee’s Summit, MO College Commitment: Oklahoma
Akin has a very projectable, lean, long-levered physique, and it’s apparent his frame still has significant long-term strength potential. He hits out of a slightly open, semi-crouched stance and uses a simple stride to get to a square position at launch. Akin has an easy, rhythmic hand load, and a bat path that stays in the zone for an extended period while also creating loft. His solid bat speed and path showed above-average raw power during batting practice, both to the pull side and to the center of the diamond.
During Akin’s live at-bats, he was at times prone to expanding out of the zone against spin, but the projectability of his hit and power tools is appealing. Defensively, Akin showed average hands, with his compact arm path currently producing fringe-average carry on his throws. He’ll likely come off shortstop in the future, but the projection in his offensive profile is the main attraction.
Cole Pladson, OF, Clay Center, KS College Commitment: Oklahoma State
Pladson hits out of a square, balanced stance with a high-hands setup. It’s a repeatable operation in the box, with a leg lift stride and a rhythmic, medium hand load, and his high back elbow during his load creates loft in his path through the zone. Pladson does a nice job maintaining a still head throughout his swing and also shows feel for manipulating the barrel in the zone. He showcased solid-average bat speed and raw power, which showed up in game action for a pull side homer.
Pladson showed fringe-average arm strength during the defensive portion of the workout and ran a 6.64 second 60-yard dash. It’s an intriguing profile that looks to offer a projectable, well-rounded offensive skill set. Pladson is a prospect I think has notable helium potential. He’s a name to keep tabs on throughout this fall and next spring.
Cash Williams, C, Choctaw, OK College Commitment: Tennessee
Williams has an athletic, medium build with room to add strength in the future, but he doesn’t have an overly projectable frame. Williams gets his money’s worth with every swing he takes, whether it’s in batting practice or against live pitching, and even though he takes big hacks, his swing isn’t out of control and he isn’t completely lacking in barrel awareness. Williams uses a big leg kick and lengthy stride to generate leverage, with the amount of loft in his path geared for putting the ball in the air. It’s 50-grade bat speed through the zone, and Williams already shows average raw power that projects to above average in the near future.
Williams had agile movements behind the plate, but his receiving can get rigid at times and he has trouble sticking borderline pitches. Between how well he moves and the caliber of athlete he is, there’s plenty of reason to think his defensive profile will trend upward. Williams also showed above-average arm strength, and I had a 1.96 second pop time on him during game action despite the throw being a bit off the bag. He’s old for his class, and models will ding him heavily for that, but he had a good overall showing at this event.
Pitchers
Cam Appenzeller, LHP, Springfield, IL College Commitment: Uncommitted
FB: 89-93 / SL: 77-80 / CH: 82-84
A rangy, lean, and projectable left-hander, Appenzeller showed a three-pitch mix from a low three-quarters arm slot. In addition to his projectable frame, his overall delivery is fluid, repeatable and very starter-like. Appenzeller also has above-average hip/shoulder separation, providing further reason to dream on how much velocity there could be in the tank for a fastball that currently sits 89-93 mph with solid tail and sinking movement. His breaking ball often took the shape of a hybrid curveball/slider offering, with late tilting action and flashes of above-average teeth. He was also able to maintain proper arm speed on a few changeups he threw, with his best ones showing average fade and depth.
Given how much body and stuff projection there is in his profile, Appenzeller will undoubtedly draw a lot of looks from teams leading up to next year’s draft. Despite only getting a one-inning look, Appenzeller’s feel for command was apparent, as he landed both of his secondary pitches in the zone and flashed feel for locating his heater on both corners.
Grady Westphal, RHP, Leawood, KS College Commitment: Texas A&M
FB: 90-93 / SL: 80-83 / CH: 85-87
Westphal is a high-waisted, lean, projectable right-hander who still has a significant amount of room on his frame for future strength gains. Westphal throws from a three-quarters slot. His medium arm circle has a slight stab in its path, but his slightly open stride direction is a bigger red flag to me than anything about his arm path. His fastball sat in the low 90s, with carry through the zone that allows it to play above the velocity, and it’s likely to see further gains as the frame adds strength.
His breaking ball has three-quarters shape with two-plane action, and he broke off a couple with spin rates north of 3,000 rpm. He did show a tendency to throw the offering from a lower slot than his fastball, which is something he’ll need to clean up and get more consistent with. Westphal also threw a couple of changeups that mirrored his fastball arm speed, which produced fade and sinking action. Westphal’s projectable fastball and existing ability to spin a breaking ball make him an intriguing arm to follow this fall and next spring.
Tyler Wood, RHP, Lee’s Summit, MO College Commitment: Tennessee
FB: 92-95 / SL: 77-80
Wood is an athletic, lean two-way player who shined the most on the mound during this particular event. He showed above-average arm speed and throws from a high three-quarters slot. His 92-95 mph four-seam fastball showed solid carry through the zone (18-20 induced vertical break), and he did a nice job of filling up the zone with his heater. His best sliders were two-plane breakers that flashed above-average bite; they shorten up a bit when he gets on the side of them. Wood also showed a changeup during his warmups, but I didn’t have him throwing one during game action.
The already present athleticism and stuff make Wood an intriguing pitching prospect, and his ceiling on the mound looks to be significantly higher than it is in the outfield. He’ll be a fun one to watch throughout his senior year.
Brody Irlbeck, LHP, Kansas City, MO College Commitment: Iowa
FB: 90-92 / CB: 74-76 / CH: 79
Irlbeck has a skinny, underdeveloped build that could lead to significant velocity/stuff gains once it matures. He throws from a low three-quarters slot with a lengthy, fluid arm circle that’s loose and quick, which contributes to his fastball sneaking up on hitters despite sitting 90-92 mph. His heater also flashed notable late tailing action that generated some whiffs in the zone. Multiple area scouts who have more history with Irlbeck and have seen him more times in person told me that his command has been shaky in years past but has been trending up more recently. In this particular one-inning outing, he consistently commanded the ball to both sides of the plate and effectively elevated as well. His curveball had 1-to-7 shape with varying degrees of depth, but it regularly showed average tightness. He only threw two changeups, both of which showed late fading action and were thrown with quality arm speed.
Irlbeck had a sharp inning of work but the most appealing aspect of his profile is the degree to which you can project on him. Not only is his frame incredibly projectable, but his plus hip/shoulder separation and the fluidity in his arm action make it a good bet there’s more than just a little velocity on the horizon for him. If Irlbeck’s command continues to trend upwards and is consistent while doing so, this very well might be a name with helium prior to next year’s draft.
The Yankees’ acquisition of $750,000 worth of 2024 international bonus pool space at the trade deadline got my gears turning around the seemingly looming Roki Sasaki posting. There has been considerable reporting (such as this Chelsea Janes Washington Post jawn) to suggest that teams expect, or at least are planning for, Sasaki to be posted this offseason, and my sources tend to agree (though not universally). In this piece, I’m going to talk about how Sasaki looks (spoiler: not his best), how his posting will be different than that of most other Japanese players if he indeed comes over this offseason or next, the way teams have been behaving and preparing for his potential posting, and what shenanigans they might get up to as they continue to do so.
For those unfamiliar…
Sasaki has been the LeBron James of Japanese baseball since his junior year, a known generational high school talent who has gone on to deliver on and perhaps exceed expectations at the highest level of Japanese baseball. Sasaki turns 23 in November and his feats of strength are already legendary. He touched 101 in high school and once threw nearly 500 pitches in an eight-day span, including a 12-inning, 194-pitch complete game during which he also hit the game-winning two-run homer. He was the first pick in the 2019 NPB Draft by the Chiba Lotte Marines, had a sub-2.00 ERA in his 2021 rookie season, and then transcended the sport in 2022 when he threw 17 consecutive perfect innings that April. Read the rest of this entry »
