Eric A Longenhagen: Hello from Salt River Fields at Talking Stick where the starting lineups for today’s championship game are coming through the PA.
3:24
Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll likely post it periodically in chat, but here is the link through which you can watch the stream of the game. Live Streams | Arizona Fall League | MLB.com
3:25
Eric A Longenhagen: We’re about to get the anthem so I’ll likely step away for, what do we wanna say, over under 1:20 on the anthem?
3:26
Eric A Longenhagen:
National Anthem Length
Over 1:50 (16.6% | 3 votes)
Under 1:50 (83.3% | 15 votes)
Total Votes: 18
3:27
Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll be taking your questions as we all watch the game and put the 2025 season…not quite to bed because it feels that way already… more like into R.E.M. sleep
3:28
Eric A Longenhagen: Meg is going to time the anthem for us.
Angel Genao Photo: Lisa Scalfaro/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
One of my favorite annual exercises is a quick and dirty assessment of every team’s 40-man roster situation. Which prospects need to be added to their club’s 40-man by next Tuesday’s deadline to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft? Which veterans are in danger of being non-tendered because of their projected arbitration salary? And which players aren’t good enough to make their current org’s active roster, but would see the field for a different club and therefore have some trade value? These are the questions I’m attempting to answer with a piece like this. Most teams add and subtract a handful of players to their roster every offseason — some just one or two, others as many as 10. My aim with this exercise is to attempt to project what each team’s roster will look like when the deadline to add players arrives on Tuesday, or at least give you an idea of the names I think are likely to be on the table for decision-makers to consider.
This project is completed by using the RosterResource Depth Charts to examine current 40-man occupancy and roster makeup, and then weigh the young, unrostered prospects who are Rule 5 eligible in December against the least keepable current big leaguers in the org to create a bubble for each roster. The bigger and more talented the bubble, the more imperative it is for a team to make a couple of trades to do something with their talent overage rather than watch it walk out the door for nothing in the Rule 5.
Below you’ll see each team’s current 40-man count, the players I view as locks to be rostered, the fringe players currently on the roster whose spots feel tenuous, and the more marginal prospects who have an argument to be added but aren’t guaranteed. I only included full sections for the teams that have an obvious crunch or churn, with a paragraph of notes addressing the clubs with less intricate roster situations at the bottom. I have the players listed from left to right in the order I prefer them, so the left-most names are the players I’d keep, and right-most names are the guys I’d be more likely to cut. I’ve italicized the names of the players who I believe fall below the cut line. As a reminder, players who signed at age 18 or younger must be added to the 40-man within five seasons to be protected from the Rule 5, while those signed at age 19 or older must be added within four. Brendan Gawlowski examined the National League yesterday, so be sure to check that out too. Let’s get to it. Read the rest of this entry »
We’re less than a month from the Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 Draft, which means it’s a good time to evaluate every team’s 40-man roster situation. This is the time of year when teams have one final chance to protect Rule 5 eligible players by placing them on the 40-man. Eligibility is determined by a mix of how long a player has been with their parent organization and how young they were when they signed: Players who signed at 18 or younger must be added to the 40-man within five seasons, while everyone else must be added within four. RosterResource monitors Rule 5 eligibility, if you’re curious to see the lay of the land.
During the season, teams can free up roster space by placing an injured player on the 60-day IL. In the offseason, teams don’t get extra slots for injured players, which tends to put pressure on the back of the roster. The Diamondbacks are a good example of how space can tighten quickly, as they’ve currently got six pitchers battling long-term injuries occupying a spot. You may have noticed a flurry of moves immediately following the World Series, with many teams outrighting players off the 40-man in order to make room for all the guys who were on the IL.
Below, I’ve assessed every National League team’s 40-man roster situation (Eric will sort through the American League tomorrow). Some teams, like the Braves, have plenty of roster space, and thus a lot of flexibility in adding whoever they like. Others, like the Cardinals and Marlins, will face some tough choices as they seek to balance protecting interesting prospects with retaining players already on the roster, as well as finding room for prospective additions via trade or free agency. Some clubs don’t have many impact players to add, while others may need to protect a half-dozen or so guys. I’ve tried to identify which players are most likely to be added, which guys on the 40-man are vulnerable to getting lopped off in a roster crunch, and who could be moved in a deal to free up roster space. Let’s dig in. Read the rest of this entry »
Hello, my name is Brendan Gawlowski. I could do the Troy McClure thing and list all of my previous bylines, but I’d prefer to just say that it’s a pleasure returning to FanGraphs after nearly four years away. Back in early 2022, I took a job as a pro scout for the Pittsburgh Pirates and I’ve been scouting minor leaguers ever since. In a few cases, I had a role in bringing players to Pittsburgh. It was a blast and I am grateful for the experience.
But for as much fun as I had, the job wore on those around me. I spent more than 80 nights on the road last year, a grueling schedule that’s rough on families in any situation and was increasingly unreasonable in mine. When I joined the Pirates, I was 30, childless, and ready to stretch my legs after two years of lying low and masking up. In the intervening years, a series of significant events made it hard to balance my passion for scouting with my responsibilities at home. My wife and I had a baby. A year later, we found ourselves facing a cancer diagnosis and long-term treatment. Our parents started battling their own medical problems. Through it all, I tried to be around as much as I could, but the realities of my schedule led to stressful compromises. The logistics of doing the job while being more than a replacement-level family member were hard to manage. This past July, I pulled an all nighter and drove from Corpus Christi to Houston to catch a 6 AM flight back home to Seattle, stepped inside for a quick shower, and then bolted two hours north to Bellingham for a birthday party. During that last stretch, my wife made her annual gentle suggestion that another path was possible.
And what a path this is. FanGraphs’s reputation as a leader in baseball analysis is well earned, particularly in the prospect space. For as long as he’s been at it, Eric has done an incredible job of covering the landscape. From my perspective, the breadth, depth, and nuance of his analysis is worth the price of a Membership all by itself. I learned plenty from him before, during, and after our time working together in my first stint here. The listing for this position came at the perfect time and I applied with gusto: I loved working as a scout, but the opportunity to join Eric in a full-time capacity, to continue evaluating baseball players while also getting another couple of months at home, was too enticing to pass up. Read the rest of this entry »
GREG WOHLFORD/ERIE TIMES-NEWS-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Max Anderson is making a name for himself in the desert. The Arizona Fall League’s hottest hitter is slashing a stand-up-and-take-notice .488/.650/.902 over 60 plate appearances with the Scottsdale Scorpions. Hitter-friendly circuit? Absolutely, but Anderson’s numbers are nonetheless impressive. The Detroit Tigers prospect has been scorching baseballs.
His regular-season numbers suggest that his AFL output isn’t wholly surprising. Playing against a higher level of competition, the 23-year-old infielder left the yard 19 times while putting up a 135 wRC+ between Double-A Erie and Triple-A Toledo. A .350/.400/.604 hitter at the University of Nebraska, the erstwhile Cornhusker has gone on to log a 120 wRC+ since being drafted 45th overall by Detroit in 2023.
Less impressive has been the youngster’s 6.7% walk rate as a professional. As Eric Longenhagen and James Fegan wrote back in March, “‘I like to swing, it’s not a secret,’ is both a favorite old José Abreu quote and the operating ethos of Anderson.” In terms of aggressiveness, that hasn’t really changed.
Our lead prospect analyst has seen a lot of him in the AFL, and he provided an updated report on the 40+ FV prospect earlier this week. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s time for another cycle of prospect lists and, as has become customary, we’re starting with scouting reports on pro players in foreign leagues, with a focus on players available for MLB free agency this offseason. On The Board, you can access a fresh batch of scouting reports and evaluations for relevant players from Nippon Professional Baseball, the Korea Baseball Organization, and the Chinese Professional Baseball League in Taiwan, as well as reports on some young players we’ve identified as potentially impactful long-term prospects. For those who need a crash course on the age- and pro experience-driven lines of demarcation that dictate how MLB teams sign international players, we’d point you to a number of MLB.com glossary entries, including those on international free agency for those in Asian pro leagues, international amateur free agency and bonus pool restrictions, the Japanese posting system, and the Korean posting system.
It can be a bit overwhelming to sift through so many different types of players on that section of The Board — it’s a real apples and oranges situation when we’re talking about some guys who are in their 30s and others who are fairly young — so we’ve broken many of them into digestible subgroups below, with focus on the crop that is purported to be coming over this offseason. You’ll notice that some players appear across multiple categories. The Board has each player’s full scouting report and tool grades — think of this as more of a table of contents. Read the rest of this entry »
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s Halloween, and you know what that means; running back to the store once you realize the amount of candy you’ve eaten necessitates another bag. Bah haaaa haaaa!
12:17
Eric A Longenhagen: James and my write-up on Asian pros will be live momentarily, though all the reports are already available on The Board.
12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, let’s hit your questions.
12:18
Insert Witty Name Here: Gotta ask the obvious: what’s the 70, 60, 50, 40, 30, and 20 grade halloween candy?
12:20
Eric A Longenhagen: I have a 70 on Reese’s and Almond Joy, a 60 on Kit Kat, Twix, Reese’s Pumpkins and Snickers, 50 on Hershey’s anything, 40 and below on all fruit-related candies
Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy from the kitchen island in Tempe, where I need to pour coffee #2 before we start.
12:02
Tyler: Hi, Eric! Where are you at on Colt Emerson? He made some nice swing adjustments this year (dropping the leg kick for a toe tap) that helped him stay on his backside better, and he handled the AAA promotion well, albeit in a small sample.
Here in Arizona we are now through two weeks of play in the Fall League, with some schedule alterations (a few days of cancellation and a doubleheader makeup effort Tuesday) caused by the impact of tropical moisture coming up through Mexico’s Pacific Coast. Though roughly 60% of the slate remains, there are already some individual players who have moved the scouting needle either for me, or for the many folks here braving Bell Road and walk-prone pitching to sharpen their club’s understanding of these guys. I’ve pushed a bunch of updates to the 2025 Fall League tab on The Board, and below have a Map Key so you can quickly parse the basics of those updates, as well some scouting notes on the players whose grade or projection has changed.
Trend Column Map Key
You’ll notice the “Trend” column on The Board. There are several (mostly self-explanatory) symbols there to give you an idea as to the way a player has looked. The “Up” arrow indicates someone has played well enough, or looks different enough, for me to have upped their FV grade from prior reporting. It’s possible the upward trend will continue throughout the Fall and that the player’s grade increases yet again during offseason org list work. In the cases where the player is struggling so badly as to have earned a “Down” arrow, I haven’t nerfed their FV grade at this time because, historically, there are lots of great players who struggled in the AFL because of fatigue, indifference, or some other reason independent of their talent.
The target “🎯” signifies either players whom I haven’t seen yet, or players who might be Up arrow guys if they reinforce a good early look with more of the same. At a certain point (like a weekish from now) the games I decide to attend on a given day will be dictated entirely by who is left on my target list. The “New” tag indicates players who weren’t on The Board previously, and the Band-Aid “🩹” designation indicates either players whom I haven’t seen, or those who aren’t playing due to injury. Read the rest of this entry »
Eric A Longenhagen: Hello hello, it’s a gorgeous Fall day in Tempe and I’ve got a packed schedule that will likely compress today’s chat. I’m going to allow a couple minutes for some more questions to flow in before we begin in earnest.
12:05
Alex: What have you made of the Nationals’ hirings and how do you expect them to handle key players differently than the past regime?
12:07
Eric A Longenhagen: I think the way things have trended in Boston from a talent acquisition and development standpoint have been very positive, and I’d be stoked to have the people chiefly responsible for that helming my club. They’re young kids with a lot of juice, too. Let’s see how things continue to trend, but this feels like a strong start.
