When trades occur that aren’t quite big enough to merit their own post, we sometimes compile our analysis into a compendium like this, where we touch on a number of transactions at one time. In this dispatch, I’ll cover the Reds’ acquisition of Sam Moll from Oakland, the Cubs’ trade for Jose Cuas from Kansas City, and the Diamondbacks’ trade for Jace Peterson, also from Oakland.

While the two teams tilted at Wrigley, the Cubs and Reds added interesting relief options to their managers’ toolkits. The Reds traded hard-throwing prospect Joe Boyle to the A’s for lefty Sam Moll and international pool space, while the Cubs traded outfielder Nelson Velázquez to the Royals for sidearm righty Jose Cuas. Read the rest of this entry »

The Cardinals are officially engaging in a moderate short-term rebuild, trading Jordan Hicks to Toronto for pitching prospects Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein, and Jordan Montgomery to Texas for righty Tekoah Roby, infielder Thomas Saggese, and reliever John King. Each of these players could suit up for the Cardinals in the big leagues within the next 12 months, especially King (already a big leaguer) and the two pitchers coming back from Toronto, who will likely be added to the 40-man roster after the season. Roby and Saggese have spent their 2023 seasons at Double-A Frisco and are within range of the majors even though they don’t have to be put on the 40-man until after the 2024 slate. You can see where each of the newly-acquired prospects falls on the Cardinals list over on The Board.

Let’s start by going over the Montgomery return, since the most significant prospect acquired by the Cardinals comes over in that deal. Roby, 21, moved onto the Top 100 prospects list when I updated the Rangers system a couple of weeks ago, and he would have been even higher if not for his current shoulder injury, which shelved him in early June. Before he was shut down, Roby was consistently working with four plus pitches. He was sitting 94–95 mph with riding life, bending in one of the nastier curveballs in the minors, tilting in a similarly shaped slider in the mid-80s, and turning over a tailing low-80s changeup, all of which were capable of missing bats. He looked like a contender’s four-pitch, mid-rotation starter, like a less physical Hunter Brown.

Roby’s delivery does have some violence, but he’s always thrown strikes in spite of this. He is slightly undersized (but well-built) at 6-foot-1 and has now had arm injuries in two of his three pro seasons, so there’s definitely relief risk here despite his strike-throwing track record. From a stuff and pitch execution standpoint, he is where Jack Leiter was expected to be when he was drafted. On upside, Roby is a huge get for the Cardinals and could be the big league club’s best starting pitcher within a year or two. Once healthy, he has a chance to kick down the door, though shoulder issues can be particularly scary and destabilizing to a young pitcher’s career. Read the rest of this entry »

Members of the 2023 draft class are now on the pro side of The Board. You can see where freshly drafted and signed players stack up in their new organization’s farm system here. Graduates have also been pulled from The Board; their evaluations are now preserved on the 2023 Graduates tab. Players who exceed rookie playing time requirements between now and the end of the season will be moved from the 2023 Updated section of The Board to the Graduates section in real time, and those who graduate get a scouting update on their player page contrasting their evaluation with their performance at time of graduation. Note that the farm system rankings from prior to the graduates removal still exist here; live farm system rankings (for which the grads no longer count) exist here. These will shift and change as prospects move between now and the trade deadline.

Because the Top 100 grew and changed throughout the Prospect List cycle, readers should consider it live and up to date. I made some updates to Reds prospects (more on that in a second) and slid Diamondbacks outfielder Druw Jones, who succumbed to yet another injury between when the D-backs list published and now, but otherwise just pulled off the grads. There are only 89 players in the minors with a 50 FV grade or better right now because of the graduates being pulled off of the list. This is not unusual for this time of year; similar to the way the 50 FV cross section moved from 107 players to about 130 players during the last cycle, prospects who improve and advance will climb into that group.

Reds Update

Between now and the deadline, I’ll be reviewing the farm systems of a few key clubs likely to buy, something I’ve already done for the tippy top of the Reds system.

Lyon Richardson’s pitch grades have been altered to reflect that his changeup has become his best pitch. His innings count has been kept pretty conservative, and I’d really like to see him hold the 95–97 mph fastball he’s currently showing deeper into games before moving him into the 50 FV tier, but he looks really good. His command isn’t precise, but he has a mid-rotation starter’s mix and has been throwing hard since his return from TJ, just not while working a true starter’s innings load.

Cam Collier is struggling statistically, but the pro scouting reports from source clubs are still generally positive, and he is still very young for a full-season hitter. His swing is still pretty weird, but there’s just too much lefty power here to slide him so soon.

Noelvi Marte is not playing good defense right now. He’s hitting well enough that he’ll probably still be a quality big leaguer even if he has to move off of third base, but now that he is on the 40-man, he only has so long to find a position before he’s out of option years. Lurking on the horizon here is a scenario where he ends up with one or no options left and basically no position. It’s not his likeliest outcome, but because he’s looked pretty bad on defense for the last sixth months or so, this is now a conceivable outcome. I still think he will be a good big leaguer over time (he remains a 50 FV prospect on The Board), but were I a GM, I’d be apprehensive about making him the centerpiece of a trade return.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand moves up into the 45 FV tier as a power-hitting role player who’ll be a dangerous (but likely flawed) piece of this ascending Reds team. His Triple-A contact rate (72%) would be near the bottom of the MLB 1B position group (70%), and his chase rates (an eyebrow-raising 39%) were about 20% worse than big league average (32%) at the time he was called up. League-wide adjustment to his tendency to chase will make him streaky, but ultimately Encarnacion-Strand’s power is going to play in a big way because he’s incredibly strong, and his swing is geared to do big damage. There are warning signs here similar to what Elehuris Montero exhibited in the minors, even amid his awesome surface-level statistical performance, but CES is at a different level, physically.

Edwin Arroyo also slides from the 50 FV tier to the 45 FV tier. Again, he still projects to be a good big leaguer, just not a true everyday, omni-situational player in my eyes. He continues to have throwing issues that will likely funnel him to second base, which I suppose was already likely given the Elly/McLain combo ahead of him. He’s going to get to his power by virtue of his swing’s lift, but his bat-to-ball performance has regressed enough to reevaluate him in light of the new defensive projection and consider him more of a just-shy-of-average second baseman. Look at the kind of hit tool it takes to profile as an everyday second baseman. Arroyo’s performance has been fine, but not quite on that level.

You can see how punishing the De La Cruz, McLain, etc. graduations are to the Reds’ farm system ranking, but even if you consider that group to be untouchable, they have a ton of depth (nearly 50 ranked prospects) to leverage in trade discussions.

Génesis Cabrera changed feathers on Friday, as he was traded from St. Louis to Toronto for teenage catching prospect Sammy Hernandez a few days after Cabrera was designated for assignment. The hard-throwing 26-year-old southpaw had spent parts of five volatile seasons with the Cardinals. While he has enjoyed a significant bat-missing rebound in 2023 compared to last season (he’s back into the 26% K% area, up from 16.5% in 2022), Cabrera was in the midst of yet another rocky, homer-prone year before he was DFA’d. He introduced an upper-80s slider/cutter to his repertoire this year and has been using it a ton (36%), while his fastball velocity has slipped a bit. All of Cabrera’s non-fastball pitches generate above-average swinging strike rates, while his mid-90s heater tends to get shelled even though he and the Cardinals made changes to it this year. Perhaps a change of scenery and new outside intervention will lead to another tweak in this area:

Read the rest of this entry »

Below is a team-by-team analysis of last night’s draft activity. Remember that you can find more detailed scouting reports and tool grades for the players drafted over on The Board.

Arizona drafted a mix of floor and upside on Day One, adding a relatively stable, Top 100 prospect to their mix in Troy before taking two college dev projects in Grice and Groover. Groover is one of the most exciting players in the draft because his bat speed is ridiculous, though he needs refinement in many areas, especially defense. Lefties with a breaking ball as good as Grice’s tend to pan out, if only as relievers, but Grice could break out if he focuses solely on pitching. Read the rest of this entry »

In a stunning revolt against Betteridge’s Law of Headlines, the answer is almost certainly yes. But now that you’ve clicked, you might as well stick around to find out why I asked the question. All season, the conventional wisdom has been that an LSU Tiger would be the best prospect selected in last night’s amateur draft. Since last season, outfielder Dylan Crews has topped most draft big boards, and a winter of tutelage from outgoing Tigers pitching coach Wes Johnson moved Skenes from a top-10 prospect to the no. 1 overall pick. The pair are the first teammates to be taken first and second overall in MLB draft history.

But over the last week or so of the NCAA tournament, a third LSU player emerged as a potential first-rounder. The last time scouts laid eyes on Ty Floyd, the right-hander struck out 17 Florida Gators in Game 1 of the College World Series final. That’s no mean feat; that same Florida lineup — featuring no. 4 pick Wyatt Langford and potential 2024 top pick Jac Caglianone — hung 24 on LSU the following afternoon. Floyd’s 17 strikeouts equaled a 51-year-old record set by Arizona State’s Eddie Bane, best known now as the scouting director who drafted Mike Trout (along with Randal Grichuk, Garrett Richards, Tyler Skaggs, and Patrick Corbin, in what must be the best two-round run by any team in draft history).

Floyd made himself a lot of money in Omaha, and he and Skenes are now in select company: Pitchers from the same team who went in the first round of the same draft. And if you think the first two paragraphs of this post were a fire hose of useless trivia, well, strap in, because we’re just getting started. Read the rest of this entry »

If you’d like to learn more about the players mentioned here, you’ll find rankings and scouting reports over on The Board. There is more context for these names on my first mock, which is here. I’ll be chatting live from Lumen Field tonight at 4 PT/7 ET, Woj’ing picks and providing reaction and analysis. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Texas Rangers. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the third year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but I use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Chicago Cubs. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the third year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

You come to your senses at the controls of a small, single-engine airplane. The pilot is gone. The terrain below is unfamiliar. And suddenly, as if by the whim of a cruel god, the aircraft rolls violently to one side, pitching you from your chair and out the door.

From an altitude of 8,000 feet, you have a little less than 30 seconds to fall. The wind stings and dries your eyes, the sound of rushing air pummels your ears, blocking out all other noise except the rapid thumping of your heart. It’s a long enough fall to leave you time to contemplate your fate, to dwell on your regrets, to consider those you’ll leave behind. The horizon falls away as the ground rushes toward you. You can make out trees, fenceposts, telephone poles. The end, by every indication, is here.

But you are not afraid, because Enrique Bradfield Jr. will catch you. Read the rest of this entry »