He doesn’t garner much press — at least not outside of Tigers territory — but Will Vest has developed into one of baseball’s better relievers. The 30-year-old right-hander has appeared in 181 games for Detroit over the past three seasons and logged a 2.93 ERA and a 2.71 ERA over 187-and-a-third innings. Moreover, he is currently the team’s closer. Vest’s 2025 ledger includes 23 saves to go with a 3.01 ERA and a 2.71 FIP, and he recorded the final out in both of the club’s Wild Card wins over Cleveland. If the Tigers go on to beat the Mariners in the ALDS, Vest will likely have played a key role.

He could easily be pitching for Seattle. As related by Dan Hubbs in a piece that ran here at FanGraphs two weeks ago, the Mariners took Vest in December 2020’s Rule-5 draft, only to return him to the Tigers the following July. Hubbs had departed as Detroit’s director of pitching development by the time Vest was reacquired, but he was, and remains to this day, bullish on the righty’s raw ability.

Vest was one of three pitchers (Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal were the others) whose development process the now-Athletics’ bullpen coach looked back on in the September 23 article. Spin rates that were “off the charts” was an attribute Hubbs saw in the then-under-the-radar prospect, as were “good movement profiles on everything he threw.” For the young hurler, success at baseball’s highest level “was just a matter of him getting comfortable competing in the strike zone.“

What are Vest’s memories of working with Hubbs, and in which ways has he continued to develop in the years that have followed? Read the rest of this entry »

I can’t tell you why the structure of the big leagues seems to bend towards close races. On August 31, the teams on the right side of the playoff cut line were all at least 2 1/2 games ahead of their nearest competitors. All baseball has done since then is collapse into chaos. The Mets have gone 8-13 to fall into peril, though that’s nothing compared to the Tigers, who have gone 5-15 over the same stretch. The Guardians are an absurd 18-5. Playoff fortunes have ebbed and flowed mightily.

Which players have featured most prominently in those games? There are any number of ways of answering that question. You could look for the highest WAR among contenders, the worst ERA or the most blown saves. You could use fancier statistics like Championship Win Probability Added, which accounts for how much each game mattered to each team. You could use the eye test, honestly – I can tell you from how frustrated Framber Valdez has looked this month that he’s not helping the Astros.

But the closest thing to matching the way I experience baseball, as a fan, is regular ol’ win probability added. My brain doesn’t distinguish between the importance of games when a team is in the pennant race. They’re all important. You can’t lose a random game on September 7 when you’re three back in the standings; you never know when the team you’re chasing will lose five in a row. Championship Win Probability Added distinguishes between whether your team is a long shot or playing from ahead, but when I’m rooting for one of the teams jockeying for a playoff spot, I don’t do that. I don’t think I’m alone in this, either. If every game in the race is equally important to you, Win Probability Added will measure the players who have mattered most in that framework. So I’ve compiled a list of notable players from the past month in each playoff race – and as a little bonus, I threw in a few players who have either stymied contenders or gotten trounced by them. Read the rest of this entry »

The Astros have spent nearly the entire season missing the superstar version of Yordan Alvarez, first because the 28-year-old slugger struggled during March and April and then because he missed nearly four months due to a fractured metacarpal in his right hand. He heated up upon returning to the lineup in late August, but on Monday night he sprained his left ankle, an injury likely to sideline him for the rest of the regular season and perhaps longer. He’s not the only American League star whose best hope for returning to the lineup is during the playoffs, as Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette has been ruled out for the rest of the regular season with a sprained ligament in his left knee.

Alvarez suffered his injury in the first inning of Monday night’s game against the Rangers in Houston. He followed Jeremy Peña’s leadoff single by drawing a walk against Jack Leiter. Carlos Correa then hit a weak comebacker toward the mound; Leiter tried to throw while on the ground but airmailed the ball far beyond the reach of first baseman Jake Burger. Peña scored easily as Adolis García retrieved the ball, but the right fielder’s throw home was nearly in time to nab Alvarez, who instead of sliding went in standing up, only to slip on home plate. He immediately began limping, had to be helped into the dugout, and did not return to the field — he started in left field — when the half-inning ended. Instead, right fielder Jesús Sánchez shifted to left and Zach Cole entered the game in right. Cole, who homered off the Braves Hurston Waldrep in his first major league plate appearance on September 12, hit his second homer off Leiter in the fifth inning of what turned out to be a 6-3 win.

“When he stepped on home plate, I had a front-row seat,” Peña said after the game. “His ankle kind of twisted, and when he had to plant again, I saw it twist again. And it’s not pretty. You don’t want to see that, especially Yordan Alvarez. We need him.”

You can see video of the play in question here, but you’re on your own if you want to seek out the still shot of Alvarez’s leg bending in ways that it shouldn’t. Colleague Dan Szymborski invoked Stretch Armstrong in his piece on the teams most impacted by injuries this year, which should give you an idea. Read the rest of this entry »

With just 12 days left to go in the regular season, two teams — the Brewers and Phillies — have clinched playoff berths, and on Monday the latter became the first to win its division. From among the four other division races, only in the AL West and NL West are the second-place teams closer than five games out, putting the chances of a lead change in the range of low-fat milk. With the exception of those two races, the lion’s share of the remaining drama centers around the Wild Card races.

Once upon a time, this space would be filled with my reintroduction of the concept of Team Entropy, but through the 2022 Collective Bargaining Agreement, Major League Baseball and the players’ union traded the potential excitement and scheduling mayhem created by on-field tiebreakers and sudden-death Wild Card games in exchange for a larger inventory of playoff games. The 12-team, two-bye format was designed to reward the top two teams in each league by allowing them to bypass the possibility of being eliminated in best-of-three series. Often, however, things haven’t worked out that way, because outcomes in a best-of-five series are only slightly more predictable than those of a best-of-three.

Aside from the Dodgers beating the Padres in last year’s Division Series, every National League team that has earned a first-round bye under the newish system had been bounced at the first opportunity, with the Dodgers themselves falling in rather shocking fashion in both 2022 and ’23. The AL has had only one such upset in that span: the 2023 Rangers, who beat the Orioles and went on to win the World Series. Read the rest of this entry »

Major League Baseball’s injured list is the sport’s unofficial 31st team, one that never makes the playoffs but always plays spoiler. In the last week, 22 players were placed on the IL. The biggest name was Will Smith, who late last week landed on the IL with a bone bruise on his hand, courtesy of a rather rude foul tip off the bat of Nick Gonzales.

The Dodgers aren’t known for having a great deal of injury luck, but as injuries go, Smith’s appears to be far less consequential than it could have been. Smith’s tests revealed no fracture, minimizing the amount of time he’s expected to miss. The 30-year-old catcher is having the best offensive season of his career, with a .296/.404/.497 slash line and a 153 wRC+, all except slugging percentage representing career bests. He has played in fewer games than usual, but that’s largely due to the team’s roster construction; he started 39 games at designated hitter in 2022-2023, but Shohei Ohtani’s presence now makes it far more difficult to sneak him into the lineup here when he has a day off of catching. The injury would be a big deal… if it were a big deal, but Smith could return as early as this upcoming weekend. It could have been even sooner, but Smith’s start last Tuesday after missing five games meant that the retroactive IL date was later than September 3, when the Gonzales foul tip occurred.

Smith and the Dodgers seem to have gotten lucky, but the Astros and Yordan Alvarez may not see the same fortune. Less than a month after returning from a broken hand that had cost him more than half of the 2025 season, Alvarez turned his ankle while touching home plate in an awkward fashion that is only appropriate on your Stretch Armstrong doll. He has not yet been placed on the IL, and the exact consequences are still to be determined, but it’s all but official that he is going to miss some time. We’ll know more after his MRI on Tuesday. A serious injury to Alvarez could imperil the Astros in their tight playoff race and beyond if they make it to October.

Alvarez has already spent 115 days on the IL this season, and the Astros have certainly felt his absence, but how do their losses this season compare to those of other teams this season? More broadly, which team has lost the most production to the injured list? If you ask the fans of an underperforming team, the near-unanimous answer will be “us,” but I think we can do better than that! Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. That title is quite a mouthful. Every time I submit it, our helpful back end interface informs me that it is “far too long.” You’re not wrong, WordPress. But I lifted the title and the inspiration for this column from Zach Lowe’s basketball feature of the same name, and every time I consider removing the parenthetical part of it, I remember that the frustrations and failures of the game are part of what makes baseball so compelling. If you never disliked anything about sports, they wouldn’t be so fun to follow. So while every item this week involves something I liked, they also all contain an element of something I didn’t care for. Missed plays, bobbled balls, artificially abbreviated outings, below-average defensive units, lengthy injury recoveries – there are things to dislike in each of these. They all brought me extreme joy anyway, though. Let’s get going.

1. Relatable Frustration
Mike Yastrzemski has been everything the Royals could have hoped for since he joined the team at the trade deadline. He leads off against righties, gets platooned against lefties, and plays his habitual right field. He’s been the team’s second-best hitter behind Bobby Witt Jr., a huge boon as they chase slim playoff odds. Also, when he goofs something up, his reactions are very relatable:

You can see what happened there right away. Yaz’s first step was in, but the ball was actually over his head, and tailing towards the foul line so strongly that he couldn’t reach it. Sure, it was only his second start of the year in left field. Sure, he hasn’t played left for more than a handful of games since 2019. And sure, the ball had plenty of slice on it. But he’d probably tell you the same thing you’re thinking: Major league outfielders, particularly solid ones like Yastrzemski, should make that play. Read the rest of this entry »

The Astros are almost definitely going to make the playoffs again. They have a four-game lead in the AL West with 22 games to play, which puts them at roughly 2-to-1 odds in favor of winning the division and 9-to-1 odds in favor of taking part in the postseason in some fashion. That would make nine playoff appearances in a row and 10 in 11 years for the Astros, across multiple roster makeovers, three front office regimes, and three managers. Same as it ever was.

What’s a little unusual about this Astros team is that the pitching staff is a bit unsettled. Not unheard of, to be sure; I remember that 2017 team with a pitching staff that destabilized to total entropy after Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel. But manager Joe Espada is going to have to do a little tinkering here to make sure the pieces all fit. Read the rest of this entry »

The Rangers really can’t catch a break. Just after I wrote about Nathan Eovaldi’s sneaky great season, the 35-year-old righty briefly took over the official AL ERA lead. Before he could make another start, however, the Rangers announced that Eovaldi would likely miss the remainder of the season due to a rotator cuff strain. As if losing their most effective starting pitcher wasn’t enough, the Rangers also announced on Thursday that Corey Seager, their top hitter, had undergone an appendectomy, putting the rest of his season in doubt.

With his seven-inning, nine-strikeout, one-run effort against the Guardians last Friday, Eovaldi lowered his ERA to 1.73 in 130 innings, exactly enough to qualify based on the Rangers’ 130 games to that point. With that, he snuck ahead of Tarik Skubal (2.32), Hunter Brown (2.36) and Garrett Crochet (2.46) on the AL leaderboard, completing a game of catch-up caused primarily by his missing nearly all of June due to posterior elbow inflammation. Unfortunately, post-start soreness led Eovaldi to shut down his regularly scheduled bullpen session and get an MRI, which revealed a rotator cuff strain.

The 31-year-old Seager has hit .271/.373/.487 for a team-high 136 wRC+; his 21 homers and 3.9 WAR are also tops on the Rangers. He already made two trips to the injured list in April and May for a recurrent right hamstring strain and so has played just 102 games, that after being limited to 123 last year by a sports hernia and 119 in 2023 due to a left hamstring strain and a right thumb sprain. He’s been replaced on the roster by infielder Dylan Moore, who was recently released by the Mariners, but the likely replacement for him in the lineup is superutilityman Josh Smith, who has hit .256/.333/.378 (101 wRC+) while playing every position besides pitcher and catcher. Read the rest of this entry »

The Astros and Phillies sit atop their respective divisions despite weathering injuries to some of their top pitchers, and now both teams face the prospect of finishing out the regular season — or perhaps going even longer — without one of their best. On Tuesday, the Astros placed Josh Hader on the 15-day injured list with what was initially described as a shoulder strain; on Friday, they clarified that he has been diagnosed with a shoulder capsule sprain. On Saturday, the Phillies announced that Zack Wheeler had landed on the IL due to “a right upper extremity blood clot” near his shoulder.

The Wheeler injury is the more serious of the two, as blood clots can be life-threatening if untreated, and career-threatening even if they are. Fortunately, it sounds as though the Phillies’ medical team caught this one before it could become an even more serious situation. Wheeler had struggled to some degree since throwing a 108-pitch complete-game one-hitter on July 6 against the Reds, with his ERA and FIP rising as his velocity trended downward. His scheduled August 8 start against the Rangers was pushed back by two days due to shoulder soreness. An MRI taken at the time came back clean, but even so, he set season lows for the average velocity of all six of his offerings once he finally took the mound on August 10.

Zack Wheeler grinded his way through 5 innings to get his 1st win in more than a month … but his velocity was down significantly and his fastball command continued to elude him.

There will be a lot of eyes on his next start. pic.twitter.com/IIF2mSnR0V

— Paul Casella (@Paul_CasellaMLB) August 10, 2025

Both Wheeler and manager Rob Thomson downplayed concerns about Wheeler’s waning velocity at the time. While the 35-year-old righty’s velocity rebounded by 1-2 mph in his August 15 start against the Nationals, he struggled with his command and lasted just five innings for the second start in a row — the first time all season he’d failed to go longer than five in back-to-back starts. Afterwards, Wheeler reported feeling “a little heaviness” on his right shoulder, and an examination on Saturday revealed the blood clot. “Yesterday, some symptoms had changed,” said head athletic trainer Paul Buchheit on Saturday. “Doctors were great in helping to diagnose and expedite that diagnosis this morning.” Read the rest of this entry »

When Hunter Brown takes the mound tonight, he’ll do so with some of the best numbers in the junior circuit. Among qualified pitchers, the Houston Astros right-hander ranks third behind Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet in WAR, ERA, FIP, and strikeout rate. An All-Star for the first time this season, the 26-year-old Wayne State University product has established himself as a top-shelf starter.

When he was first featured here at FanGraphs in April 2021, Brown was still a prospect; our initial conversation centered around his background and repertoire. When I next caught up with him in August 2023 (Brown had made his major league debut in September 2022), we covered a recent change to his delivery.

What did we discuss when I sat down with Brown in Fenway Park’s visiting dugout during the Astros’ trip to Boston earlier this month? The answer lies below.

———

David Laurila: We last talked two summers ago. What has changed since then?

Hunter Brown: “Two years ago would have been before I started throwing a two-seam sinker and before I started throwing both cutters and sliders. That’s probably the biggest change.” Read the rest of this entry »