With a 17 game lead in the AL West, the Astros are almost certainly going to the postseason. But as they figure out what to do before tomorrow’s trade deadline, and weigh the costs of potential upgrades, it is becoming pretty clear that they should have some concerns about Lance McCullers.

Their #2 starter was lights out to begin the year, but on June 12th, the Astros put him on the DL with a back problem. It sounded like the kind of semi-fictional injury that teams have used to give starters a break with the new 10-day disabled list, and not something that the team should be all that worried about, despite McCullers’ long history of arm problems. But after another lousy outing today, it’s worth noting that McCullers has looked nothing like his early-season self since returning from the DL.

Because he hasn’t surrendered a home run in any of his six starts since returning from the DL, his FIP still looks fine, but everything else is a mess. His 9% walk rate doesn’t look awful, but once you add in the five HBPs, he’s putting 13% of the batters he faced on base without forcing them to swing the bat. More worryingly, his strikeout rate over that stretch is just 20%, below the league average, and that includes him racking up 14 strikeouts in his first two starts off the DL; he has struck out just 17 of 100 batters in his last four starts.

Coming into today, batters were hitting .387/.472/.492 off McCullers in July.
Today, the Tigers hit .363/.500/.409 against him.

Some of his recent struggles are just BABIP related, but McCullers’ command has basically disappeared over the last month, and when he’s behind in the count, he can’t get guys to chase his curveball out of the zone. Obviously, he could find his command again before October, and you don’t want to overreact to a few bad starts in a row, especially with a playoff spot all but guaranteed. But given McCullers’ long list of health issues and his struggles since returning from the disabled list, the Astros should probably be a bit more motivated to add a starter before tomorrow’s deadline.

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Luis Ortiz, RHP, Milwaukee (Profile)
Level: Double-A   Age: 21   Org Rank: 3   Top 100: 57
Line: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 R, 7 K

Notes
After walking five hitters on July 13, Ortiz hasn’t issues a free pass in two starts since then. He has good glove-side command of his fastball and has kept his body, which drew Rich Garces comparisons when Ortiz was 19, in check. Reports of his slider’s effectiveness, especially within the strike zone, have become mixed but Ortiz is purposefully working with his changeup more often, even against righties, and not getting as many reps with the slider. His curveball remains about average. Ortiz has had hamstring issues this season and various ailments throughout his career, but he’s still just 21, pitching pretty well at Double-A and projects as an above-average big-league starter.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last Friday, the best player in the American League West returned after a nearly two month absence due to a broken left thumb. Today, the Astros announced that maybe the second best player in the AL West is going to miss the next two months due to a broken left thumb.

Astros have placed Carlos Correa on the 10-day disabled list with a torn ligament in his left thumb. He is expected to miss 6 to 8 weeks.

— Houston Astros (@astros) July 18, 2017

Trout had the UCL in his thumb repaired, going on the DL on May 29th, and then he returned on July 14th. Assuming Correa’s injury is of similar nature and requires a similar amount of time away, Correa would be looking at a return in early-to-mid September. That would give him a few weeks to get back up to speed before the postseason begins.

While this is a blow to the Astros, the enormous early lead they’ve built allows them to absorb this better than most contenders. With a 15 1/2 game lead over the second place Mariners, their chances of winning the division, even without Correa, are still quite high. The real concern here is whether this is something that might linger and affect him in October.

In Correa’s absence, we’d expect either Alex Bregman or Marwin Gonzalez to take over as the everyday shortstop, with the other manning third base. Both have played the position previously, so it will depend on whether the team prefers to move Bregman back to the position he played in college and the minors, or whether they prefer to keep him at third base, since that’s where he’ll play when Correa returns. Gonzalez’s offensive explosion this year means the team has a reasonable fill-in, regardless of how they line up the defense.

I do wonder if this will nudge the Astros towards adding a corner outfielder at the deadline, however. Gonzalez had drawn 23 starts in left field, his most at any position, and if he’s an everyday infielder now, the team will have to lean more heavily on Nori Aoki or Jake Marisnick. You probably don’t want either of those guys as an everyday player in October, so adding an LF upgrade could provide some insurance for the team’s offense in case Correa’s return doesn’t go as well as hoped, or if the injury saps him of any power after he returns.

The Astros have the benefit of not needing to overreact to this news, but this does add some uncertainty to the mix. Depending on what is available, it’s probably not a bad idea for the Astros to look around for some corner outfielders now, especially if they can find a solid bat who swings from the left side.

It’s the All-Star break, and the Houston Astros have 60 wins. That’s more wins than they had in all of 2013. It’s more wins than they had in all of 2012. It’s more wins than they had in all of 2011. Now, those Astros teams were supposed to be bad, and this Astros team was supposed to be good. No one ever expected it to be this good. No baseball team is ever expected to be this good.

There’s credit to be spread all around, but this is a post that’s focusing on the hitters, so, let’s focus on the hitters. I pretty much always choose to eliminate pitcher hitting performance, so, keep that minor factor in mind. The Astros, in April, had a 106 wRC+. They scored 4.5 runs per game. In May, they had a 129 wRC+. They scored 6.2 runs per game. In June, they had a 131 wRC+. They scored 5.8 runs per game. And so far in July, they have a 191 wRC+, and that’s a 191, not any other number, like 181 or 171 — it is not a typographical error. They’ve scored 9.8 runs per game. Over the past 30 days, the Astros as a team have combined for a 153 wRC+, which is incidentally right where you find Paul Goldschmidt. It’s been a month of a team of Paul Goldschmidts.

These Astros hitters have been insane. In just a short few minutes, I’d like to provide you with some historical context.

Read the rest of this entry »

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Jacob Nix, RHP, San Diego (Profile)
Level: Hi-A Age: 21   Org Rank: 7   Top 100: HM
Line: 9 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 11 K

Notes
A groin strain sidelined Nix until late May. Since returning, his fastball has been in the mid-90s, touching 97, and his curveball flashes plus. He has an inning-eater’s build (I have a Jon Lieber comp on the body) and throws lots of strikes. He’s rather firmly an overall top-100 prospect.

Read the rest of this entry »

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Adbert Alzolay, RHP, Chicago NL (Profile)
Level: Hi-A Age: 22   Org Rank: NR   Top 100: NR
Line: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 2 R, 7 K

Notes
His delivery is a bit rough (though it’s more efficient than it used to be), but Alzolay has good stuff, sitting in the mid-90s and topping out at 97 with arm-side run. He’ll flash an average changeup and can vary his breaking ball’s shape, at times exhibiting 12-6 movement and showing two-plane wipe at others. He has a chance for a plus-plus fastball an two solid-average secondaries, perhaps a tick above, to go with fringe command.

Read the rest of this entry »

Maybe the Astros are the best team in baseball, and maybe they’re not. There are lots of good teams, and the differences are all fairly slim. At least, we can say the Astros have the best record out of anyone in baseball, and they deserve to stand where they’re standing. They’re easily clear of the rest of their own division, and while they’ve experienced a handful of significant or semi-significant injuries, they’ve chugged right along. The Astros were supposed to be good. So far, the Astros have been great. Projections can miss in one of two directions.

One of the things we knew was that the Astros were going to hit. During the winter, they were lauded for their offensive depth, and the Astros have an easy MLB lead in wRC+. But now I have a fun fact for you. It’s even more telling than that one. The Astros, as a team, lead baseball in home runs. They also have baseball’s lowest team strikeout rate. In the 19 full seasons since baseball moved to a 30-team landscape, no offense has led in both categories. The Astros are trying to be the first, which is downright impressive.

Read that again. Home runs? Sure. Everyone hits home runs. Marwin Gonzalez hits home runs. The Astros might as well be leading. But, strikeouts? Yeah. It’s not that there was zero warning. Reality is just following what could’ve reasonably been expected.

Read the rest of this entry »

No team’s batters have ever seen fewer four-seam fastballs than the Houston Astros this year. Few teams’ pitchers, meanwhile, have thrown fewer four-seam fastballs than the Houston Astros this year. This all has something to do with changes in baseball, yes, and also with the personnel on this current team. But there’s also a wrinkle to the thing that tells us a little more about why these trends are happening, and why the Astros are at the forefront in both cases.

Read the rest of this entry »

There are two types of stories you might be growing tired of reading. This guy figured out how to hit home runs. Well, there are home runs everywhere. And, this guy figured out how to get more strikeouts. Well, there are also strikeouts everywhere. Home runs. Strikeouts. Home runs. Strikeouts. It can feel sometimes like the game is nothing but home runs and strikeouts. It’s not, but it is more than it’s ever been. I’m sure many of you are craving diversity.

But Brad Peacock is leading all starting pitchers in strikeout rate. Not Chris Sale. Not Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw or Corey Kluber. Brad Peacock. Yeah, I had to lower the innings minimum, because Peacock hasn’t been starting the whole time, but when he was a reliever earlier on, he got a whole bunch of strikeouts, too. Let me show you a table, including 2016 and 2017 contact rates allowed:

Peacock has a long history of pretty average contact rates. Relatedly, he was essentially a replacement-level pitcher. Now a third of all swing attempts are missing. This can’t not be discussed. Strikeouts might be everywhere, sure, but this is the first time Peacock has managed to find them.

Read the rest of this entry »

With Josh Reddick sidelined by a concussion, the Astros summoned 23-year-old center fielder Derek Fisher to the big leagues yesterday. The early returns are good: in his debut, Fisher went 2-for-3 with a homer and two walks.

Fisher had more than earned this opportunity, slashing .335/.401/.608 at Triple-A this year. A power-speed threat, Fisher eclipsed 20 homers and 20 steals in both 2015 and 2016, and Eric Longenhagen gave him raw power and speed grades of 60 and 70, respectively. Fisher had a bit of a strikeout problem in the past, but has managed to slice his strikeout rate from 27% last year to 19% this year without sacrificing any of his power.

KATOH loves Fisher, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise given his excellent performance this year. I have him projected for 8.1 WAR over his first six seasons by stats-only KATOH and 6.3 WAR by KATOH+, which incorporates Eric Longenhagen’s relatively modest 45 FV grade. Those projections make him the 18th- and 48th-best prospect in baseball, respectively.

To put some faces to Fisher’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps for the toolsy center fielder. I calculated a Mahalanobis distance between Fisher’s Double-A and Triple-A performance and every season since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. A lower “Mah Dist” reading indicates a closer comp.

Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.

It’s not immediately clear how, or how often, Houston will work Fisher into their lineup once Reddick is healthy. But Houston would perhaps benefit from shifting some of Nori Aoki’s at-bats to Fisher, giving them an outfield of Fisher, Reddick and George Springer. Regardless, Fisher’s rare combination of power, speed, and contact ability makes his future look incredibly bright. And he made it clear with his 2017 performance that he has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues.