Here’s a thing that you could say about José Berríos: he’s been a lousy pitcher this year. I don’t even think he would argue with you on that one; after signing a seven-year, $131 million deal with the Blue Jays, he’s having comfortably his worst season in the majors. His 5.28 ERA is more than a run higher than his career mark coming into the year despite the declining offensive environment. He’s striking fewer batters out and giving up home runs at an alarming rate. Whether you’re talking about advanced or standard metrics, new school or old school, it’s been a disaster of a year.

Here’s another thing you could say about Berríos: he’s a solid pitcher who’s sticking with the approach that got him here in the first place. If you thought he was good last year — and you probably did, given that he put up a mid-3s ERA in both Minnesota and Toronto with the peripherals to match — you’d expect him to be good again this year. He’s not losing velocity. He didn’t change his pitch mix. He didn’t suddenly lose command of the zone. What the heck is happening here?

Before we go any further in this investigation, I’m going to spoil the conclusion a little bit: I don’t know the answer. I don’t think there’s an obvious answer at all, in fact. If there were, I’m fairly certain the Jays would have figured it out by now. Whatever’s ailing Berríos, it’s somewhere on the margins. Read the rest of this entry »

Mitch White brought a new-ish slider to Toronto when the Blue Jays acquired him at this year’s trade deadline. He also brought a nerdy approach to pitching. That should come as no surprise. The 27-year-old right-hander had pitched in the Los Angeles Dodgers system since being selected in the second round of the 2016 draft out of Santa Clara University.

White also had a big-league resume when he changed organizations. Having debuted with the Dodgers in August of 2020’s COVID-truncated campaign, he had 105-and-two-thirds innings under his belt when the four-player swap occurred. Since coming to Toronto, White has a 5.89 ERA over four starts.

White discussed his new and old sliders, and the blister issues that have dogged his career, when the Blue Jays visited Fenway Park last week.

———

On his path to the big leagues and dealing with blisters:
“A lot of it was staying healthy. I’ve had a few things go on every year, whether it was blisters or some back stuff. I had a broken toe at one point. Right now, I have this little guy [blister]. The slider really puts a lot of pressure there because I’m trying to get to the side of the ball and spin it, and for whatever reason, I guess my skin is soft. I’ve had to learn how to manage that stuff in between outings. Read the rest of this entry »

Friday’s interview with Michael Harris II focused on his career path, the 21-year-old Atlanta Braves rookie having excelled as a multiple-sport athlete while growing up in Stockbridge, Georgia. Moreover, he’d been a two-way player whom many scouts preferred as a pitcher. While baseball and outfielder-only are proving to be prudent choices, he had options along the way.

Jordan Romano’s path shares some similarities with Harris’s. Not only was the Toronto Blue Jays closer a multi-sport athlete in his formative years, he originally excelled as a position player. That he became a pitcher was circumstantial. Choosing baseball was a matter of passion.

“Being Canadian, I played a lot of hockey in high school,”said Romano, who grew up a Toronto Maple Leafs fan in Markham, Ontario. “I also played a little basketball and was pretty decent at volleyball. But with baseball, you kind of had to drag me off the field, even in practice. My parents wanted me to play a bunch of different sports, and while I really enjoyed hockey — I still do — I didn’t have the passion for it that I did for baseball.”

Romano never considered himself NHL material, but he does feel he had the potential to play collegiately, or in juniors, had he stuck with it. The decision to forgo that possibility came at age 17, and while it shaped his future, it didn’t end his time on the ice. Romano kept lacing up the skates for another year. Read the rest of this entry »

The Baltimore Orioles were nine games under. 500 when I talked to Jordan Lyles in late May, and they were only a smattering of games better when the veteran right-hander was featured here in Sunday Notes on June 26. Not much changed over a month’s time. Moreover, most signs pointed to the rebuilding Birds’ going on to have a sixth straight losing season.

A revisiting of what I wrote seven weeks ago is in order. Not only has Baltimore morphed into one of baseball’s hottest teams, the crux of that column was Lyles’s bad-club background. Now in his 12th big-league season, the journeyman hurler came into the current campaign having never played a full year with a team that finished above .500.

That might be about to change. With 24 wins in their last 33 games, the Orioles went into last night with a record of 59-53, in third place in the American League East and in possession of the final wildcard slot. Earlier this week, I asked Lyles about the team’s unexpected ascent in the standings.

“When we talked, there was a different atmosphere around our ball club, our clubhouse,” said Lyles. “Things definitely turned around and got moving in a better direction for us. It’s been a joyful ride. It’s been fun to see these young guys start to grow, and to grow quickly.”

Amid that growth, the Orioles front office saw fit to take one step backward in hopes of taking two steps forward. In moves that weren’t well-received by much of the fan base, Baltimore traded Trey Mancini and Jorge Lopez. On back-to-back days, an impact bat and a closer departed town in exchange for a further influx of promising, yet mostly-unproven, talent. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 987

This week on the program, we get into some Blue Jays banter before looking at how some other squads are faring after the trade deadline.

• In the first half, David Laurila welcomes Kaitlyn McGrath, a writer and podcaster for The Athletic focused on the Toronto Blue Jays. They talk about the surprisingly competitive Baltimore Orioles, compare Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah’s great seasons, consider the concerning campaigns of Yusei Kikuchi and José Berríos, and discuss the interesting acquisitions of Jackie Bradley Jr. and Whit Merrifield. We also hear how fans wish the club was a bit more aggressive even as the front office often leans in a more practical direction. [3:02]
• In the second half, Ben Clemens and Dan Szymborski convene to chat about the landscape of both Central divisions and their respective races. The White Sox just lost Tim Anderson at a terrible time, while the Cardinals are surging following some successful deadline deals. The pair talk about the Harrison Bader/Jordan Montgomery trade, how Milwaukee was too passive at the deadline, Jed Lowrie being DFA’d, Chris Sale’s latest unfortunate injury, and Dan’s own history of embarrassing accidents. Finally, they give the Rockies some credit after they claimed Dinelson Lamet off waivers. [36:53]

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If you’re a one-number kind of analyst, Teoscar Hernández is having an unremarkable season. After posting a 132 wRC+ last year, he’s back at it with a 129 mark this year. His overall batting line is down – .274/.326/.495 compared to .296/.346/.524 in 2021 – but between playing all of his home games in Toronto instead of Dunedin and Buffalo and the overall decline in league-wide offense, he’s been roughly the same hitter relative to league average in both years.

If you look at his underlying rates, you still won’t see much difference. Hernández is walking 0.5 percentage points more often this season than last season. He’s striking out 1.4 percentage points more often. He’s running a similar ISO, a similar BABIP, and a similar barrel rate. But zoom in juuust a little bit and things splinter:

Here’s one story you could tell about his season: he scuffled to start the year, made some adjustments that righted the ship somewhat but resulted in too many strikeouts, and finally dialed things in. You wouldn’t even necessarily be wrong; descriptively, those things all happened. Under the hood, though, Hernández made a big adjustment, one you won’t see in that data. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s the day after the trade deadline, which always means one thing: baseball writers begrudgingly cleaning up their gross, sparkling-water-can-filled workspaces. Oh, wait, actually it means two things: that, and a flood of “who won the trading deadline” articles.

This year, I’m going to do something slightly different. I won’t claim that I’ve re-invented the wheel, but I’ve always thought that those winner/loser columns are too deterministic and don’t leave enough room for nuance. I thought about listing each team that made a trade as a winner, with a “maybe” appended to indicate that we don’t know what will happen in the future; if you really want to know who won and who lost, check back in October… or maybe in October of 2025. I thought about making each team a “loser (maybe)” for the same reason. In the end, I settled on some broad archetypes. I’ll throw a subjective grade on how much I like the move, and also endeavor to explain the risks around each team’s deadline. You can find all of our deadline coverage here. Let’s get started. Read the rest of this entry »

A lot happened on a frantic deadline day, so you wouldn’t be blamed for missing out on this trade between the Dodgers and Blue Jays that came together down the stretch. But we at FanGraphs are dedicated to covering every deadline transaction, no matter how small or seemingly insignificant. This is a four-player deal, with each team involved receiving two of them. Here’s the basic breakdown:

Blue Jays get:

• RHP Mitch White
• INF Alex De Jesus

Dodgers get:

• RHP Nick Frasso
• LHP Moises Brito

First, let’s break down the Jays’ return. As expected, a great scramble occurred at the deadline for the limited amount of starting pitching available. Some teams, like the Yankees and Twins, emerged as clear winners. Others, like the Phillies, had to settle for the second-best but nonetheless decent options. Then we have the Blue Jays, who ended up with White. It’s understandable if this feels like a disappointing pickup, and while it’s better than nothing at all, with the right maneuvers, they could have done much better.

At the very least, White has experience starting in the majors. Prior to the trade, he served as the Dodgers’ five-and-dive starter and put up admirable results, with a 3.47 ERA and 4.06 FIP in 46.2 innings. That’s partially because his team seldom lets him face the order for a third time, but it’s also the point: For four or five innings, White does his job on the mound and then heads back to the dugout. With José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi still in search of consistency and Hyun Jin Ryu out for the season, White’s presence provides some respite for the Blue Jays.

Repertoire-wise, White throws up to five pitches, though only three of them are noteworthy. The four-seam fastball, his primary offering, has about league-average velocity (93–95 mph) and is characterized by poor shape. He’s weirdly gotten a ton of outs with it this season despite the lack of movement, though whether that’s due to luck remains to be seen. The slider, his secondary offering, is genuinely great, featuring two-plane break and solid velocity for a breaking ball (84–86 mph). Opposing hitters agree; when swinging at it, they’ve whiffed 33.8% of the time so far. White will sometimes remind us of his low-80s curveball, but he often lacks proper feel for the pitch. Read the rest of this entry »

For as long I’ve been writing about baseball, Whit Merrifield has never failed to appear on a list of potential trade targets. He’s never been dealt, though, as the Royals preferred to hold onto their speedy, contact-orientated infielder — that is, until now. Past the peak of his powers, Merrifield is finally headed elsewhere — Toronto, to be exact, which acquired him for prospects Samad Taylor and Max Castillo.

The Blue Jays didn’t need to trade for Merrifield, though in hindsight, he’s a pretty good fit. Santiago Espinal has handled second base for most of this season, but a 95 wRC+ isn’t marvelous, and he’s had a crummy July on top of that. Chances are the Jays will alternate between Espinal and Merrifield there, and if the former continues to trend downward, they now have a clear Plan B. In addition, the right-handed Merrifield is also capable of handling a corner outfield spot on a team whose backup outfielders (Cavan Biggio, Raimel Tapia, and Bradley Zimmer) are all lefties. Versatility is great! Toronto now has more of it than before. Read the rest of this entry »

Currently holding the top spot in the AL Wild Card race and a 12–3 record over the last three weeks, it seems like the Blue Jays are finally playing up to this season’s lofty expectations. But despite their recent hot streak, there were spots on the roster that needed to be addressed in order to bolster their playoff odds — notably their pitching depth. They focused on doing just that at the trade deadline by acquiring relievers Anthony Bass and Zach Pop and a player to be named later in exchange for shortstop prospect Jordan Groshans.

This is Bass’ second stint with the Blue Jays; he spent the shortened 2020 season in Toronto, compiling 0.4 WAR with a 3.51 ERA in 26 appearances that year. He signed a two-year deal with the Marlins in 2021 but struggled in his first season in Miami, with his FIP increasing by more than a run, even though his ERA only saw a slight increase. A 62.3% groundball rate in Toronto dropped to 43.7% with the Marlins, and all that additional contact in the air led to a huge increase in balls flying over the fence.

Surprisingly, despite his groundball rate falling even further this year to a career-low 39.0%, Bass is in the midst of a career-best season. His strikeout rate has increased to 26.0%, a career high, and his walk rate has fallen by more than three points. More encouragingly, he’s only allowed a single home run this year. The result is a 1.41 ERA, a 2.06 FIP, and 1.4 WAR in 45 appearances. Read the rest of this entry »