Fellowship Opportunities: Baseball Operations, Pro Acquisitions, Player Development

DEPARTMENT: Baseball Operations, Pro Acquisitions, Player Development
ORGANIZATION: Chicago Cubs
LOCATION: Chicago; Arizona
FLSA STATUS: Exempt

BEING PART OF THE TEAM
Our business is a team sport that began on a field with baseballs and bats and has evolved into one of the most recognizable brands in sports and entertainment through Cubs baseball and live events. Our success is driven by our people, who work to create and inspire change in an engaging, collaborative and inclusive environment. As a team, we continue to build a culture on and off the field that delivers unforgettable experiences for one another, our fans and community. In support of that effort, we expect associates to work primarily in our office. Are you ready to be part of it?

OUR STORY
THE CHICAGO CUBS FRANCHISE is a charter member of Major League Baseball’s National League. Since 1876, the team has won the National League pennant 17 times and was the first team to win back-to-back World Series titles in the 1907 and 1908 seasons. In 2016, the Chicago Cubs made history again when the team won its first World Series in 108 years, ending the longest championship drought in North American sports. Known for its ivy-covered outfield walls, hand-operated scoreboard and famous Marquee sign, iconic Wrigley Field has been the home of the Chicago Cubs since 1916, making it the second oldest ballpark in Major League Baseball.

HOW YOU’LL CONTRIBUTE:
The Chicago Cubs’ Baseball Operations, Pro Acquisitions, and Player Development departments are seeking to potentially fill positions in the preidentified areas below. Candidates who thrive in a fast-paced, collaborative environment and possess excellent communication skills with a strong attention to detail are encouraged to apply. The timeline to fill each position may vary and will be prioritized based on qualified candidate credentials.

Baseball Operations Fellow (Location: Chicago, IL)
Responsibilities:

• Work in collaboration with other members of Major League Operations, providing daily support to various Baseball Operations functions

• Prepare and maintain essential resources and materials for operation, evaluation, and decision making within the front office

• Perform research and analysis in support of Major League Operations including salary arbitration, contracts, free agency, roster transactions and management, and rules compliance

• Work alongside the Amateur Scouting and Pro Acquisitions departments in advance of the Rule 4 Draft, Trade Deadline, and other key transaction periods

• Carry out gameday duties as assigned by the Advance Scouting and Research & Development departments

• Conduct ad-hoc research and projects as assigned

Pro Acquisitions Fellow (Location: Chicago, IL)
Responsibilities:

• Follow and track the direction and strategies of certain Major League teams and identify potentially available players

• Produce in-depth player assessments on professional players, utilizing video and data

• Participate in the implementation and continuous improvement of acquisition processes, focusing on optimizing workflows, evaluation methods, decision support, and staff development

• Use analytical tools to identify and prioritize players for further analysis.

• Collaborate with Baseball Analytics, Baseball Sciences, and Baseball Systems to develop, refine, and implement player evaluation and acquisition tools

• Conduct research as assigned by leadership, providing quality assurance and control feedback and identifying areas for further exploration and development

• Collaborate with predictive modeling teams and incorporate analytical insights into decision-making processes

WHAT YOU’LL BRING:

• Bachelor’s degree, preferably in a quantitative field, or equivalent practical experience

• Proficiency in Microsoft Office Suite (Excel, PowerPoint, Word)

• Experience with SQL/R preferred

• Familiarity with advanced baseball statistics

• Demonstrated passion for baseball

• Willingness to work nights, weekends, and holidays, in accordance with the baseball calendar and key events/transactional periods

• Ability to relocate and find housing in the Chicago area

Player Development Fellow (Location: Mesa, AZ)
Responsibilities:

• Assist the Player Development Department with a range of administrative tasks, including data collection, data entry, and various other responsibilities to support team operations

• Facilitate the onboarding process for newly acquired players, including those from the Rule 4 Draft, trades, international signings, and minor league free agency

• Collaborate with the Cubs’ Minor League Equipment staff to develop and maintain an effective inventory system and handle logistics needs

• Support player services by managing housing arrangements, ensuring nutritional needs are met, and addressing additional player welfare needs

• Ad hoc Player Development projects and research as assigned by Director, Player Development

• Aid in the implementation of Cubs’ life skills programs, which may include organizing trips to the bank, assisting with social services, and coordinating doctor’s appointments

WHAT YOU’LL BRING:

• Bachelor’s degree, preferably in a quantitative field, or equivalent practical experience

• Proficiency in Microsoft Office Suite (Excel, PowerPoint, Word), familiarity with Google suite

• Valid Driver’s License

• Willingness to work nights, weekends, and holidays, in accordance with the baseball calendar

• Ability to relocate to Mesa, AZ for duration of role

• Spanish proficiency preferred

Response Expectations:
Due to the overwhelming number of applications we receive, we unfortunately may not be able to respond in person to each applicant. However, we can assure you that you will receive an email confirmation when you apply as well as additional email notifications whether you are selected to move forward for the position or not. Please note, we keep all resumes on file and will contact you should we wish to schedule an interview with you.

The Chicago Cubs and its affiliates are an Equal Opportunity Employer committed to inclusion and employing a diverse workforce. All applicants will receive consideration without regard to race, color, religion, sex, national origin, age, sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, veteran status, disability, or other legally protected characteristics.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Chicago Cubs.

I feel a little bad for Shota Imanaga. The Cubs left-hander is sixth among qualified starters in ERA and ninth in K-BB%. He’s thrown 173 1/3 innings, which is a bunch by modern standards, and while we don’t put much probative value in pitcher record in this day and age, Imanaga is still 15-3 for a pretty mediocre Cubs team. After Imanaga threw seven scoreless innings on Sunday — the second time he’s done that this month — I saw a little bit of Twitter chatter from people wondering where his Rookie of the Year buzz went?

FIP doesn’t like Imanaga that much, because he gives up a bunch of home runs, but even after getting dinged for that, Imanaga has put up a 3.1-WAR season as a rookie. There are years where that, in addition to his pretty uncontroversially awesome traditional stats, would be good enough to win Imanaga some hardware.

Unfortunately, Imanaga is the third competitor in a pretty thrilling two-man race between Paul Skenes and Jackson Merrill. Do you want the flashy giant with triple-digit heat and an unhittable off-speed pitch that defines classification? Or do you want the guy who learned a brand new position basically overnight at age 20, and oh by the way is nearly hitting .300 with power in a park that’s unfriendly to hitters?

Me? I’d go with Skenes, but would have a hard time mounting a negative argument against Merrill. Either one would be a deserving winner. As for Imanaga, I’m actually not sure he’d be the third man on my ballot if I had one. That’d probably be Jackson Chourio, who would have a legitimate case if Merrill hadn’t broken the curve. Tyler Fitzgerald isn’t a sexy name, but he’s got a 135 wRC+ in 90 games, mostly as a shortstop. Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s case was undone by injuries, but he’s nearly equaled Imanaga’s WAR total in roughly half as many innings. He’ll get down-ballot votes as well.

The thing is, Rookie of the Year is a volatile competition. The MVP and Cy Young classes vary in quality from year to year, but not by much. The list of best players in baseball is pretty stable from one season to the next.

Best rookies, however? That’s another question. Future MVPs and Hall of Famers don’t bubble up from the minors in a steady stream. Sometimes they come two and three at a time. Sometimes they come in April, other times in August, too late to influence the Rookie of the Year race. Sometimes there are several in one league but none in the other.

Some years, well, they mint a new plaque for each league every year, and you’ve got to give it to somebody. And that’s not even counting flash-in-the-pan cases who won the award on merit but fizzled out later. For instance: Bob Hamelin is easy to mock because he was a pudgy guy who wore glasses and was a replacement-level player for bad teams for almost all of his short career. But the man raked in 1994: .282/.388/.599, with 24 homers and 56 walks in just 374 plate appearances. He earned his spot as a historical footnote, don’t let anyone tell you different.

But in other cases the first great season of a superstar career goes completely unrewarded. Or a relatively underhyped rookie puts in a big first season and barely gets noticed. Which is what will happen to Imanaga, in all likelihood.

At times like this, I think of Jaime García. Like Imanaga, García was an unassuming-looking lefty for an NL Central team who would’ve had a real shot at Rookie of the Year if he weren’t up against two monsters. In 2010, García posted a 2.70 ERA in 163 1/3 innings. And this was back when a 2.70 ERA meant something — that was a 69 ERA-. He did get a single first-place Rookie of the Year vote, but only one, because Buster Posey and Jason Heyward were also in that class. Posey took his first step toward Cooperstown with that season, and Heyward set himself up for a lifetime of disappointment by posting a career-high .393 OBP. It takes a lot to get noticed in that environment.

I went back through the Rookie of the Year races since 1980, which is when voting went from one player per ballot to (brushing off my old comparative politics textbooks) ranked choice voting. And I’ll say this: As much as the BBWAA voters went through a rough time during the Fire Joe Morgan era, and as much as the Hall of Fame continues to be a contentious battlefield pitting the forces of reason against the forces of silliness, the writers have gotten to the right answer most of the time. There are always cranks and outliers (I was amused to discover Ichiro was not a unanimous Rookie of the Year in 2001, and that five voters chose Miguel Andujar over Shohei Ohtani in 2018), but the collective has been solid.

So, in addition to García himself, I present the Jaime García All-Stars:

A key characteristic of the Jaime García All-Stars is that they did not actually deserve the award. So while Orel Hershiser was awesome in 1984, posting a 2.66 ERA in 189 2/3 innings split between the rotation and the bullpen, he had the misfortune of coming up against Samuel, who hit .272 and stole 72 bases. And also Gooden, who put up one of the greatest rookie seasons of all time. Tough beat.

Brown had a case to win Rookie of the Year by WAR, but Olson was a reliever and we all know WAR doesn’t count for relievers. What does count: a 1.69 ERA and 27 saves. It’s fine. But this was the start of Brown — for reasons I still don’t understand — being wildly underrated by awards voters. He never won a Cy Young and really only came close once, in 1998, when he lost a three-way battle with Tom Glavine and Trevor Hoffman. (Glavine, at the risk of reiterating an opinion that’s gonna get me yelled at, is the most overrated pitcher of his generation, which makes Brown being snubbed for him all the more fitting.) And, of course, Brown lasted a single year on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot. When I’m dictator of baseball, Brown will get the respect he deserves.

Ichiro and Pujols were two of the most obvious Rookies of the Year ever, and then backed it up by putting on lengthy Hall of Fame-worthy careers. But their success obscures how good the rest of that rookie class was: a future Hall of Famer in Sabathia, several Hall of Very Gooders in Oswalt, Soriano, and Rollins. Plus Adam Dunn. And a David Eckstein sighting! Oswalt is the only one who really ought to feel aggrieved at not winning Rookie of the Year — everyone else burst into the league with decent-but-not-great campaigns — but this is quite a list of names to have beaten back so resoundingly.

The WAR totals make this look like a miscarriage of justice, but it’s important to remember that Braun hit 34 home runs and stole 15 bases in just 113 games, while Tulowitzki played 155. Also, the defensive metrics have Tulowitzki an astonishing 49.1 runs ahead of Braun. Based on the what happened to both players later in their careers, I’m inclined to believe that Braun was a bad third baseman and Tulo a very good shortstop, but I have a hard time trusting that big a gap based on data from 2007.

Either way, poor Hunter Pence got lost in the shuffle. A literal shuffle, one might say, given Pence’s unorthodox running style. Even so, a 132 wRC+ in 108 games is a great rookie season — hardware is routinely won with less.

García, Imanaga, Ryu… I’d argue J.A. Happ in 2009, though he finished second in a pretty forgettable class. Voters like left-handers without elite velocity enough to notice them, but not enough to give them serious consideration for the top of the ballot. I get Ryu’s falling down the pecking order because he was a 26-year-old KBO veteran, and because he was overshadowed not only by Clayton Kershaw, but by Puig, who was the most buzz-worthy player in the league at the time. The only person who came close was, well, Fernández.

I remember this race between Acuña and Soto being much closer than it was. That happens sometimes in award voting (the Jose Altuve vs. Aaron Judge race for AL MVP in 2017 was like this too) where there’s a clear closely matched top two, but rather than that manifesting in an even split of votes, everyone comes down on the same side of a close call.

Either way, Buehler, despite his single first-place vote, was a distant third. It’s in keeping with a career where Buehler was always among the best on his team, or in the league, or whatever cohort you want to choose, but never clearly the best.

Another close race with a lopsided result. And in contrast to the 2018 NL race, where Acuña had the better season, I think the voters missed on this one. Not that Rodríguez wasn’t special — or that he didn’t turn into an absolute superstar — but I think the difficulty of posting a 135 wRC+ from behind the plate, as Rutschman did as a rookie, continues to be wildly underrated. Even so, the true hard case here is Kwan, who hit .298/.373/.400, stole 19 bases, and still wound up an afterthought. Behind his old college teammate, no less! What an indignity.

This was an even stronger rookie class than that, with Bobby Witt Jr., George Kirby, and Jeremy Peña also getting down-ballot votes. Kirby didn’t have a huge workload, Witt had not fully crystallized into what he would become (he hit 20 homers and stole 30 bases, but posted an OBP of just .294), and your opinion of Peña probably depends on which defensive metrics you believe.

Kwan was incredible as a rookie by anyone’s standards, but was still clearly the third-best player in his class.

This being a highly subjective exercise, this is not — and cannot be, really — an exhaustive list. (Please share your favorite forgotten rookie season in the comments.) But the larger point is this: Imanaga is still having a great rookie campaign, even if he doesn’t get any hardware to show for it. Sometimes there’s just a better rookie.

Prior to talking to him in Wrigley Field’s home clubhouse in late August, my knowledge of Ethan Roberts mostly consisted of his being a 27-year-old, right-handed reliever with limited big-league experience and a high spin rate. I also knew he’d had Tommy John surgery in 2022 as that was mentioned, along with his spin, when he was blurbed as an honorable mention on our 2023 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects list.

The 2018 fourth-round pick out of Tennessee Technological University has added to his résumé since we spoke and now has 27 appearances for his career, 18 of them this year. His numbers in the current campaign include a 2.66 ERA and 23 strikeouts over 23-and-two-thirds innings. Three days ago he tossed a scoreless frame against the Washington Nationals and was credited with his first big-league win.

Roberts learned that he spun the ball well upon entering pro ball. Not long thereafter, he learned that not all spin is created equal.

“It was my first time around technology,” explained Roberts. “I threw a bullpen and my fastball was spinning pretty high. It was spinning like 2,800 [RPMs] —right now it’s more 2,600-2,700 — and I actually throw it very supinated. It’s kind of like a natural cutter. But yeah, when I got on technology there, in Arizona [at the Cubs spring training complex], I was like, ‘I don’t know what any of this means, but thanks for telling me.’”

Which brings us to his spin characteristics, as well as to pitch classifications. Read the rest of this entry »

Pete Crow-Armstrong just had a really good night. He made multiple highlight-reel catches in center field, including robbing Max Muncy of a home run with two outs in the ninth inning.

That was a great play even by PCA’s lofty standards, but his speed and defense are a known quantity. I just had to stop myself from using the word “gamebreaking,” like he’s a cornerback and punt returner from the 1990s or something. Crow-Armstrong’s glove is going to get him on SportsCenter, but it’s on the other side of the ball where he’ll determine how much he can help the Cubs while he’s there, as well as how long he stays in the lineup and how much money he makes over his career. The really exciting part of PCA’s Tuesday night only shows up in the box score: He went 2-for-4 with two RBI. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

The final stretch of the season is now upon us, and it sure is going to be fun. The Orioles and Yankees are jockeying for the AL East title, with a first-round bye almost certainly going to the winner. The NL Wild Card is a beautiful mess, with four teams fighting for the three spots and two other clubs, the Cubs and Cardinals, still lurking in the distance. And the under-the-radar Tigers are roaring, trying to pull out a last-minute postseason berth after selling at the trade deadline.

Last month, when I wrote about the players who were added off the waiver wire, I mentioned that another batch of waiver claims would come at the end of August, after more teams fell out of contention. So now that we’re well into September, let’s take a look at some of the notable players who’ve switched teams over the last few weeks.

Read the rest of this entry »

The NFL season kicks off tonight, with another game tomorrow, 13 more on Sunday, and a Monday Night Football matchup set to cap off the Week One slate. Millions will be tuning in, although not everyone will be able to watch their favorite team (or keep close tabs on their fantasy football squad). Among those missing out will be the vast majority of big leaguers. At the same time that pigskin luminaries like Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are performing on the gridiron, major leaguers will be plying their trade on the baseball diamond. When you’re a professional athlete, forgoing other pastimes — watching other sports is but one of many — comes with the territory.

What is it like to miss out on things you’d be enjoying were it not for your responsibilities as a ballplayer? I asked several big league players for their perspectives on that very subject. Here is what they had to say.

———

George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays outfielder: “I wouldn’t ever say ‘Why do I have to play today?’ but I love football. I’m a big football fan. When the NFL gets going, and college football gets going, it’s exciting for me. A lot of it is just a break from the constant everyday grind of baseball, having a chance to go to an NFL game, to a hockey game, to a concert. Anything like that. Read the rest of this entry »

They were among the best players on the open market this past winter, four of the top seven on our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. Blake Snell had just won his second Cy Young Award, while Jordan Montgomery had a huge October, helping the Rangers win the World Series. Cody Bellinger had proven himself healthy and productive for the first time in years, and Matt Chapman won his fourth Gold Glove. The so-called “Boras Four” were supposed to land deals in the nine-figure range, but free agency became a frigid slog. Teams found nits to pick with their past production, and luxury tax concerns limited the interest of the biggest spenders, particularly when sky-high target figures were publicly floated, leading to the understandable conclusion that agent Scott Boras had overplayed his hand. The first of them (Bellinger) didn’t agree to a contract until February 25, after camps had opened, and it took another month for the last one (Montgomery) to sign. None of their seasons has gone quite as planned, either.

When the Diamondbacks visited Boston last week, Montgomery expressed frustration with the way his free agency played out. Because his wife, McKenzie Dirr, began a dermatology residency at a Boston-area hospital last fall, a deal with the Red Sox made sense, particularly given their apparent need for starting pitching. Montgomery and Boras engaged in discussions with the Red Sox, but the 31-year-old lefty did not receive a formal offer before signing his one-year, $25 million contract with the Diamondbacks on March 29.

“I had a Zoom call with [the Red Sox], that’s really all I know. It went good,” Montgomery told the Boston Herald last week. “I don’t know, obviously Boras kind of butchered it, so I’m just trying to move on from the offseason and try to forget it.”

Montgomery’s dissatisfaction wasn’t exactly a secret given that on April 11, old friend Kiley McDaniel reported that he left the Boras Corporation to be represented by Joel Wolfe and Nick Chanock of Wasserman. But the timing of his latest comments coincided with the Diamondbacks’ decision to send him to the bullpen, as he’s been lit for a 6.44 ERA in 95 innings, and is doing more harm than good as the team tries to secure a playoff spot.

Snell, who agreed to a two-year, $62 million deal with the Giants on March 19, was bothered enough by Montgomery’s comments to publicly defend Boras. “My experience with Scott has been great,” he told The Athletic on Sunday. More:

“I’ve seen how [Montgomery] struggled, but he signed the deal that he ultimately wanted to sign,” Snell said. “He has the choice. I don’t know what other deals he was offered, but I know everything that was offered to me. It’s just sad that he thinks that way when I see Scott as a very honorable man.”

While we’ll never know exactly how negotiations progressed for this bunch, or whether they’d have been better off taking different deals, their respective performances to date are worth a look, as are the decisions that lie ahead, since their contracts have mechanisms that could lead to new addresses next year. Here are the details regarding our crowdsource estimates for their contracts as well as the basics of their actual deals. I’ll tackle their respective cases alphabetically:

Cody Bellinger

Bellinger hit an impressive .307/.356/.525 (134 wRC+) with 26 homers for the Cubs last year on the heels of two injury-wracked seasons with the Dodgers, but the question was whether he could be counted on to maintain star-level production as he entered his age-28 season. His 2023 performance far outstripped his modest Statcast numbers and was driven by particularly impressive two-strike results in the service of nearly cutting his strikeout rate in half. Given the former MVP’s upside, high-quality defense, and versatility (center field, right field, first base), he ranked third on our free agent list; Boras reportedly sought a contract worth as much as $250 million, and both Ben Clemens and our crowdsource estimates figured he’d at least secure more than half of that. While the Blue Jays were considered the favorites to sign him, and the rumor mill also connected him to the Giants, Mariners, and Yankees, he returned to the Cubs on a deal that includes $27.5 million salaries for 2024 and ’25, with a $2.5 million buyout of a player option after this season, and then another player option for $25 million for ’26, with a $5 million buyout.

Bellinger has bounced around between the aforementioned three positions and designated hitter given the presence of rookies Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong and the oblique strain of Seiya Suzuki. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to avoid the injured list himself, missing 13 days in April and May due to a rib fracture and then another 18 days in July due to a fractured left middle finger. His .269/.328/.423 (108 wRC+) slash line looks less like 2024 and more like his combined numbers from ’22 and ’23 (.258/.311/.457, 109 wRC+). His average exit velocity is down a bit, as are his other Statcast numbers, and he’s exceeded his expected stats by less:

The big difference between Bellinger’s 2023 and ’24 expected numbers — and a key driver of his fall-off — is on his fly balls:

After producing ridiculously strong numbers on his oppo flies in 2023, Bellinger isn’t hitting them as hard this year, reducing their average distance by 14 feet (from 284 to 270), and far fewer are falling in; none have gone over the fence, compared to four last year. While the average launch angle of his opposite-field flies has remained constant at 39 degrees, that of his pulled ones has increased from 35 to 38 degrees, and their average distance has dropped by 27 feet (from 341 to 314), with a reduction in homers from 16 to 10.

As for Bellinger’s strikeouts, his 15.3% rate is nearly identical to last year, but where he hit for a .281 AVG and .313 wOBA with two strikes last year, he’s fallen to .226 and .270, respectively, this year. His 1.5 WAR pales in comparison to last year’s 4.4, and is hardly has an ideal platform to seek a much larger contract. I wouldn’t be surprised if he stays put this winter in hopes of opting out after 2025, as I don’t think a .383 xSLG will convince anyone to invest $150 million.

Matt Chapman

Chapman reportedly declined a $120 million extension with the Blue Jays at some point last year. The team briefly pursued a return, and the Mariners, Cubs, and Giants were also connected to him. While all of the Boras Four fell far short of our crowd’s expectations for contract size, Chapman is the only one whose AAV came in lower as well. He’s making $18 million via a $2 million signing bonus and a $16 million salary, with a $17 million player option and $2 million buyout for ’25, an $18 million player option and $3 million buyout for ’26, and then a $20 million mutual option and $1 million buyout for ’27.

He’s also the only member of this bunch who has avoided the IL, and is the one who is having the best season. His 4.2 WAR ranks sixth in the NL, and is third among all third basemen behind only José Ramírez and Rafael Devers; it’s his highest WAR since 2019. Yet in the grand scheme, it’s hardly been an atypical season for the 31-year-old. His 118 wRC+ matches his career mark, and his .246/.333/.443 line bears a strong resemblance to last year’s .240/.330/.424, but with a bit more power; his 21-homer total so far is already four more than last season. His defense has been typically strong (11 DRS, 4 FRV, 3.1 UZR).

More notable is the arc of his season. Chapman finished 2023 in a funk, with a 54 wRC+ from August 12 onward, and he followed that by producing just an 80 wRC+ in March and April. Statcast’s bat tracking data — which places him among the game’s fastest swingers — arrived just in time to offer him some reassurance that he needed only to continue making minor adjustments instead of overhauling his mechanics or cheating on the fastball; he’s hit for a 129 wRC+ (.253/.353/.461) since. He and the Giants are reportedly engaged in “active dialogue” (Boras’ term) regarding a long-term extension, though it doesn’t appear imminent. My guess is that he opts out, and that a return could depend upon how things unfold with Snell, since signing both to nine-figure deals may be unlikely.

Jordan Montgomery

On August 2, 2022, the Yankees traded Montgomery to the Cardinals in exchange for the injured Harrison Bader because general manager Brian Cashman reportedly didn’t believe he’d be part of the postseason rotation. From the point of the trade through the end of 2023 — after another deadline trade to the Rangers — Montgomery posted the majors’ seventh-lowest ERA among qualified starters (3.17), while ranking 12th in WAR (5.6) and 13th in FIP (3.44). He capped that with a 2.90 ERA in 31 innings during the 2023 postseason, doing the heavy lifting in a pair of series-opening combined shutouts against the Rays (ALWS) and the Astros (ALDS), and chipping in 2.1 innings of emergency relief following Max Scherzer’s injury-related exit in Game 7 of the ALCS. His start against the Diamondbacks in Game 2 of the World Series was nothing special (six innings, four runs in a 9-1 rout), but it didn’t stop the team from winning its first championship.

Montgomery and Boras reportedly set their sights on topping Aaron Nola‘s seven-year, $172 million deal. In addition to the Red Sox, he was pursued to some degree by the Rangers (who were somewhat hamstrung by uncertainty over their television deal), Yankees, and Mets. The Athletic’s Jim Bowoden reported that he received two long-term offers, though neither the teams nor terms were reported. His deal with the Diamondbacks includes a $20 million vesting option for 2025 based on 10 starts, rising to $22.5 million with 18 starts and $25 million with 23 starts.

After signing, Montgomery made two starts for Arizona’s Triple-A Reno affiliate, then debuted for the Diamondbacks on April 19. Three of his first four starts were good, but his ERA has been above 6.00 since June 5. His strikeout rate has fallen from 21.4% to 15.5%, with his walk and homer rates both rising (from 6.2% to 8.3% for the former, and from 0.86 per nine to 1.14 per nine for the latter). With the recent returns of Eduardo Rodriguez and Merrill Kelly from lengthy injury-related absences, he’s been relegated to the bullpen.

Whether it’s due to the lack of a normal winter/spring buildup or the inflammation in his right knee that sidelined him for three weeks in July, the average velocity of Montgomery’s sinker is down 1.6 mph from last year (from 93.3 mph to 91.7), and the offering is getting hammered (.380 AVG/.569 SLG). His other pitches are slower and less effective as well. Per both of our pitch modeling systems, his stuff and command have both fallen off, with his botOvr falling from 52 to 45 (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and his Pitching+ falling from 96 to 95 (on a scale where 100 is average). He’s probably best served by exercising his option in hopes of producing a better springboard to free agency.

Blake Snell

Snell appeared primed to cash in on his second Cy Young and ERA title, but his career-high (and major league-high) 13.2% walk rate, inability to pitch deep into games (he’s never averaged six innings per turn in a season), and concerns about durability (he’s made more than 27 starts in two out of six full seasons, with last year’s 32 his career high) all helped to cool his market. Nonetheless, the Yankees reportedly offered six years and $150 million (topping both Ben’s and our crowdsource’s expectations), and the Astros and Angels made late runs before he signed with the Giants. His deal pays $15 million this year, with a $17 million signing bonus deferred until 2026; half of next year’s $30 million player option will be deferred until mild-2027 if he exercises it.

Injuries prevented the 31-year-old lefty from gaining momentum in the first half of the season. Despite an abbreviated spring, he debuted on April 8, but was dreadful in his first three turns, yielding 15 runs in 11.2 innings and then landing on the IL due to a left adductor strain. After two hitless rehab starts totaling nine innings, he struggled in three more big league starts in late May and June before being sidelined again due to a left groin strain. To that point, he had a 9.65 ERA and hadn’t completed five innings in a start. But after another five-inning hitless rehab start, he found a groove; four of his first five starts off the IL were scoreless, capped by his no-hitter against the Reds on August 2. He’s continued his roll, though a six-walk, three-inning effort against the Mariners on Saturday was nothing to write home about. Still, his splits are night and day relative to the period bracketed by his two IL trips:

Snell has tweaked his delivery a bit such that his horizontal and vertical release points have both decreased since the early going, as has his extension. He’s cut his slider usage from 16.5% before the second IL stint to 6.6% since, with the usage of his curve increasing from 18.9% to 32.4%. And why not, as the pitch is off the charts in terms of our modeling (from 144 to 148 in Stuff+, and from 66 to 76 in PitchingBot), though the big improvement there has been his fastball (103 to 115 in Stuff+, 56 to 68 in PitchingBot).

In other words, Snell is pitching like an ace, and so long as he stays healthy, he seems likely to test free agency again. Despite his imperfections, he’s got the highest ceiling of this group — he has the talent for a third Cy — and I’d expect him to land the biggest contract of the bunch next winter.

Shortly before Walter Pennington was acquired by the Texas Rangers from the Kansas City Royals at last month’s trade deadline, Eric Longenhagen wrote that the 26-year-old left-hander had “caught some helium of late after striking out 35% of the hitters he’s faced in Triple-A.” Our lead prospect analyst went on to note that Pennington had recently made his MLB debut, adding that he “has a middle relief profile with little margin for error due to his underwhelming velocity.” Longenhagen assigned the 2020 non-drafted free agent out of the Colorado School of Mines a not-overly-enthusiastic 35+ FV.

Through his first seven big-league appearances — one with the Royals and now six with the Rangers — Pennington has fanned 10 batters and allowed three earned runs while attacking hitters with an array of sinkers, sliders, and cutters (he’s also thrown a smattering of four-seamers) in eight-and-two-thirds innings of work. Down on the farm, he’d heavily featured his slider while fanning 82 batters and allowing 43 hits in 63-and-a-third frames.

His velocity is indeed underwhelming. And not only has Pennington been averaging just 91.7 mph with his heaters, his arsenal doesn’t include a breaking ball that sweeps or dips in eye-catching fashion. Your stereotypical power pitcher he’s not.

Asking Pennington how he profiles on the mound elicited some intriguing answers. Read the rest of this entry »

The other day, I wrote about Jake McCarthy’s BABIP, and touched on an assumption about which kinds of hitters are going to put up outlier numbers in that stat. McCarthy hits a lot of grounders, which generally produce a higher BABIP than fly balls (though they’re less productive by other metrics). He’s also left-handed and very fast, which means he ought to be able to beat out grounders for infield singles.

So let’s take a little gander at the infield hit rate leaderboard for qualified hitters. This is the percentage of groundballs a batter produces that turn into infield hits. Simple enough:

So yeah, Bellinger is primarily known for grinding hanging curveballs to make his bread, but in spite of his size, he is a left-handed fast guy. That tracks. Peña is a righty, but he’s very fast. His average home-to-first time is actually in the top 20 among all hitters — lefties and righties alike — this season. And because Peña hits so many grounders, he leads all batters in total infield hits with 24.

And then there’s Rhys Hoskins. Wait, what? Read the rest of this entry »

This is Michael Rosen’s first piece as a FanGraphs contributor. You may have read his previous work at the site, including his article about the Kirby Index, a metric he created to measure command using release angles. He lives in Los Angeles and works as a transportation planner.

Earlier this year, I tried to solve the riddle of how Shota Imanaga threw his invisible fastball. The pitch had (and still has) a rare combination of traits: At the time of writing, only Imanaga and Cristian Javier threw fastballs from super flat vertical approach angles (VAA) with elite induced vertical break (IVB). A fastball with a flat VAA or high IVB plays a trick on the hitter’s perception; a fastball with both qualities becomes nearly unhittable, or invisible, when located at the top of the zone. I posed two questions in that piece: Why was this invisible fastball so rare? And what was Imanaga specifically doing to throw a fastball with these traits?

The first question can be answered, my research shows, by looking directly at release angles. Release angles reflect the direction that the pitcher is aiming the ball at release, which I wrote about at length in my article on the Kirby Index from May. That act of aiming — specifically, the direction the ball is oriented out of the pitcher’s hand — also affects the amount of backspin on a four-seam fastball. Read the rest of this entry »