Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

The final stretch of the season is now upon us, and it sure is going to be fun. The Orioles and Yankees are jockeying for the AL East title, with a first-round bye almost certainly going to the winner. The NL Wild Card is a beautiful mess, with four teams fighting for the three spots and two other clubs, the Cubs and Cardinals, still lurking in the distance. And the under-the-radar Tigers are roaring, trying to pull out a last-minute postseason berth after selling at the trade deadline.

Last month, when I wrote about the players who were added off the waiver wire, I mentioned that another batch of waiver claims would come at the end of August, after more teams fell out of contention. So now that we’re well into September, let’s take a look at some of the notable players who’ve switched teams over the last few weeks.

Read the rest of this entry »

The NFL season kicks off tonight, with another game tomorrow, 13 more on Sunday, and a Monday Night Football matchup set to cap off the Week One slate. Millions will be tuning in, although not everyone will be able to watch their favorite team (or keep close tabs on their fantasy football squad). Among those missing out will be the vast majority of big leaguers. At the same time that pigskin luminaries like Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are performing on the gridiron, major leaguers will be plying their trade on the baseball diamond. When you’re a professional athlete, forgoing other pastimes — watching other sports is but one of many — comes with the territory.

What is it like to miss out on things you’d be enjoying were it not for your responsibilities as a ballplayer? I asked several big league players for their perspectives on that very subject. Here is what they had to say.

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George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays outfielder: “I wouldn’t ever say ‘Why do I have to play today?’ but I love football. I’m a big football fan. When the NFL gets going, and college football gets going, it’s exciting for me. A lot of it is just a break from the constant everyday grind of baseball, having a chance to go to an NFL game, to a hockey game, to a concert. Anything like that. Read the rest of this entry »

They were among the best players on the open market this past winter, four of the top seven on our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. Blake Snell had just won his second Cy Young Award, while Jordan Montgomery had a huge October, helping the Rangers win the World Series. Cody Bellinger had proven himself healthy and productive for the first time in years, and Matt Chapman won his fourth Gold Glove. The so-called “Boras Four” were supposed to land deals in the nine-figure range, but free agency became a frigid slog. Teams found nits to pick with their past production, and luxury tax concerns limited the interest of the biggest spenders, particularly when sky-high target figures were publicly floated, leading to the understandable conclusion that agent Scott Boras had overplayed his hand. The first of them (Bellinger) didn’t agree to a contract until February 25, after camps had opened, and it took another month for the last one (Montgomery) to sign. None of their seasons has gone quite as planned, either.

When the Diamondbacks visited Boston last week, Montgomery expressed frustration with the way his free agency played out. Because his wife, McKenzie Dirr, began a dermatology residency at a Boston-area hospital last fall, a deal with the Red Sox made sense, particularly given their apparent need for starting pitching. Montgomery and Boras engaged in discussions with the Red Sox, but the 31-year-old lefty did not receive a formal offer before signing his one-year, $25 million contract with the Diamondbacks on March 29.

“I had a Zoom call with [the Red Sox], that’s really all I know. It went good,” Montgomery told the Boston Herald last week. “I don’t know, obviously Boras kind of butchered it, so I’m just trying to move on from the offseason and try to forget it.”

Montgomery’s dissatisfaction wasn’t exactly a secret given that on April 11, old friend Kiley McDaniel reported that he left the Boras Corporation to be represented by Joel Wolfe and Nick Chanock of Wasserman. But the timing of his latest comments coincided with the Diamondbacks’ decision to send him to the bullpen, as he’s been lit for a 6.44 ERA in 95 innings, and is doing more harm than good as the team tries to secure a playoff spot.

Snell, who agreed to a two-year, $62 million deal with the Giants on March 19, was bothered enough by Montgomery’s comments to publicly defend Boras. “My experience with Scott has been great,” he told The Athletic on Sunday. More:

“I’ve seen how [Montgomery] struggled, but he signed the deal that he ultimately wanted to sign,” Snell said. “He has the choice. I don’t know what other deals he was offered, but I know everything that was offered to me. It’s just sad that he thinks that way when I see Scott as a very honorable man.”

While we’ll never know exactly how negotiations progressed for this bunch, or whether they’d have been better off taking different deals, their respective performances to date are worth a look, as are the decisions that lie ahead, since their contracts have mechanisms that could lead to new addresses next year. Here are the details regarding our crowdsource estimates for their contracts as well as the basics of their actual deals. I’ll tackle their respective cases alphabetically:

Cody Bellinger

Bellinger hit an impressive .307/.356/.525 (134 wRC+) with 26 homers for the Cubs last year on the heels of two injury-wracked seasons with the Dodgers, but the question was whether he could be counted on to maintain star-level production as he entered his age-28 season. His 2023 performance far outstripped his modest Statcast numbers and was driven by particularly impressive two-strike results in the service of nearly cutting his strikeout rate in half. Given the former MVP’s upside, high-quality defense, and versatility (center field, right field, first base), he ranked third on our free agent list; Boras reportedly sought a contract worth as much as $250 million, and both Ben Clemens and our crowdsource estimates figured he’d at least secure more than half of that. While the Blue Jays were considered the favorites to sign him, and the rumor mill also connected him to the Giants, Mariners, and Yankees, he returned to the Cubs on a deal that includes $27.5 million salaries for 2024 and ’25, with a $2.5 million buyout of a player option after this season, and then another player option for $25 million for ’26, with a $5 million buyout.

Bellinger has bounced around between the aforementioned three positions and designated hitter given the presence of rookies Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong and the oblique strain of Seiya Suzuki. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to avoid the injured list himself, missing 13 days in April and May due to a rib fracture and then another 18 days in July due to a fractured left middle finger. His .269/.328/.423 (108 wRC+) slash line looks less like 2024 and more like his combined numbers from ’22 and ’23 (.258/.311/.457, 109 wRC+). His average exit velocity is down a bit, as are his other Statcast numbers, and he’s exceeded his expected stats by less:

The big difference between Bellinger’s 2023 and ’24 expected numbers — and a key driver of his fall-off — is on his fly balls:

After producing ridiculously strong numbers on his oppo flies in 2023, Bellinger isn’t hitting them as hard this year, reducing their average distance by 14 feet (from 284 to 270), and far fewer are falling in; none have gone over the fence, compared to four last year. While the average launch angle of his opposite-field flies has remained constant at 39 degrees, that of his pulled ones has increased from 35 to 38 degrees, and their average distance has dropped by 27 feet (from 341 to 314), with a reduction in homers from 16 to 10.

As for Bellinger’s strikeouts, his 15.3% rate is nearly identical to last year, but where he hit for a .281 AVG and .313 wOBA with two strikes last year, he’s fallen to .226 and .270, respectively, this year. His 1.5 WAR pales in comparison to last year’s 4.4, and is hardly has an ideal platform to seek a much larger contract. I wouldn’t be surprised if he stays put this winter in hopes of opting out after 2025, as I don’t think a .383 xSLG will convince anyone to invest $150 million.

Matt Chapman

Chapman reportedly declined a $120 million extension with the Blue Jays at some point last year. The team briefly pursued a return, and the Mariners, Cubs, and Giants were also connected to him. While all of the Boras Four fell far short of our crowd’s expectations for contract size, Chapman is the only one whose AAV came in lower as well. He’s making $18 million via a $2 million signing bonus and a $16 million salary, with a $17 million player option and $2 million buyout for ’25, an $18 million player option and $3 million buyout for ’26, and then a $20 million mutual option and $1 million buyout for ’27.

He’s also the only member of this bunch who has avoided the IL, and is the one who is having the best season. His 4.2 WAR ranks sixth in the NL, and is third among all third basemen behind only José Ramírez and Rafael Devers; it’s his highest WAR since 2019. Yet in the grand scheme, it’s hardly been an atypical season for the 31-year-old. His 118 wRC+ matches his career mark, and his .246/.333/.443 line bears a strong resemblance to last year’s .240/.330/.424, but with a bit more power; his 21-homer total so far is already four more than last season. His defense has been typically strong (11 DRS, 4 FRV, 3.1 UZR).

More notable is the arc of his season. Chapman finished 2023 in a funk, with a 54 wRC+ from August 12 onward, and he followed that by producing just an 80 wRC+ in March and April. Statcast’s bat tracking data — which places him among the game’s fastest swingers — arrived just in time to offer him some reassurance that he needed only to continue making minor adjustments instead of overhauling his mechanics or cheating on the fastball; he’s hit for a 129 wRC+ (.253/.353/.461) since. He and the Giants are reportedly engaged in “active dialogue” (Boras’ term) regarding a long-term extension, though it doesn’t appear imminent. My guess is that he opts out, and that a return could depend upon how things unfold with Snell, since signing both to nine-figure deals may be unlikely.

Jordan Montgomery

On August 2, 2022, the Yankees traded Montgomery to the Cardinals in exchange for the injured Harrison Bader because general manager Brian Cashman reportedly didn’t believe he’d be part of the postseason rotation. From the point of the trade through the end of 2023 — after another deadline trade to the Rangers — Montgomery posted the majors’ seventh-lowest ERA among qualified starters (3.17), while ranking 12th in WAR (5.6) and 13th in FIP (3.44). He capped that with a 2.90 ERA in 31 innings during the 2023 postseason, doing the heavy lifting in a pair of series-opening combined shutouts against the Rays (ALWS) and the Astros (ALDS), and chipping in 2.1 innings of emergency relief following Max Scherzer’s injury-related exit in Game 7 of the ALCS. His start against the Diamondbacks in Game 2 of the World Series was nothing special (six innings, four runs in a 9-1 rout), but it didn’t stop the team from winning its first championship.

Montgomery and Boras reportedly set their sights on topping Aaron Nola‘s seven-year, $172 million deal. In addition to the Red Sox, he was pursued to some degree by the Rangers (who were somewhat hamstrung by uncertainty over their television deal), Yankees, and Mets. The Athletic’s Jim Bowoden reported that he received two long-term offers, though neither the teams nor terms were reported. His deal with the Diamondbacks includes a $20 million vesting option for 2025 based on 10 starts, rising to $22.5 million with 18 starts and $25 million with 23 starts.

After signing, Montgomery made two starts for Arizona’s Triple-A Reno affiliate, then debuted for the Diamondbacks on April 19. Three of his first four starts were good, but his ERA has been above 6.00 since June 5. His strikeout rate has fallen from 21.4% to 15.5%, with his walk and homer rates both rising (from 6.2% to 8.3% for the former, and from 0.86 per nine to 1.14 per nine for the latter). With the recent returns of Eduardo Rodriguez and Merrill Kelly from lengthy injury-related absences, he’s been relegated to the bullpen.

Whether it’s due to the lack of a normal winter/spring buildup or the inflammation in his right knee that sidelined him for three weeks in July, the average velocity of Montgomery’s sinker is down 1.6 mph from last year (from 93.3 mph to 91.7), and the offering is getting hammered (.380 AVG/.569 SLG). His other pitches are slower and less effective as well. Per both of our pitch modeling systems, his stuff and command have both fallen off, with his botOvr falling from 52 to 45 (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and his Pitching+ falling from 96 to 95 (on a scale where 100 is average). He’s probably best served by exercising his option in hopes of producing a better springboard to free agency.

Blake Snell

Snell appeared primed to cash in on his second Cy Young and ERA title, but his career-high (and major league-high) 13.2% walk rate, inability to pitch deep into games (he’s never averaged six innings per turn in a season), and concerns about durability (he’s made more than 27 starts in two out of six full seasons, with last year’s 32 his career high) all helped to cool his market. Nonetheless, the Yankees reportedly offered six years and $150 million (topping both Ben’s and our crowdsource’s expectations), and the Astros and Angels made late runs before he signed with the Giants. His deal pays $15 million this year, with a $17 million signing bonus deferred until 2026; half of next year’s $30 million player option will be deferred until mild-2027 if he exercises it.

Injuries prevented the 31-year-old lefty from gaining momentum in the first half of the season. Despite an abbreviated spring, he debuted on April 8, but was dreadful in his first three turns, yielding 15 runs in 11.2 innings and then landing on the IL due to a left adductor strain. After two hitless rehab starts totaling nine innings, he struggled in three more big league starts in late May and June before being sidelined again due to a left groin strain. To that point, he had a 9.65 ERA and hadn’t completed five innings in a start. But after another five-inning hitless rehab start, he found a groove; four of his first five starts off the IL were scoreless, capped by his no-hitter against the Reds on August 2. He’s continued his roll, though a six-walk, three-inning effort against the Mariners on Saturday was nothing to write home about. Still, his splits are night and day relative to the period bracketed by his two IL trips:

Snell has tweaked his delivery a bit such that his horizontal and vertical release points have both decreased since the early going, as has his extension. He’s cut his slider usage from 16.5% before the second IL stint to 6.6% since, with the usage of his curve increasing from 18.9% to 32.4%. And why not, as the pitch is off the charts in terms of our modeling (from 144 to 148 in Stuff+, and from 66 to 76 in PitchingBot), though the big improvement there has been his fastball (103 to 115 in Stuff+, 56 to 68 in PitchingBot).

In other words, Snell is pitching like an ace, and so long as he stays healthy, he seems likely to test free agency again. Despite his imperfections, he’s got the highest ceiling of this group — he has the talent for a third Cy — and I’d expect him to land the biggest contract of the bunch next winter.

Shortly before Walter Pennington was acquired by the Texas Rangers from the Kansas City Royals at last month’s trade deadline, Eric Longenhagen wrote that the 26-year-old left-hander had “caught some helium of late after striking out 35% of the hitters he’s faced in Triple-A.” Our lead prospect analyst went on to note that Pennington had recently made his MLB debut, adding that he “has a middle relief profile with little margin for error due to his underwhelming velocity.” Longenhagen assigned the 2020 non-drafted free agent out of the Colorado School of Mines a not-overly-enthusiastic 35+ FV.

Through his first seven big-league appearances — one with the Royals and now six with the Rangers — Pennington has fanned 10 batters and allowed three earned runs while attacking hitters with an array of sinkers, sliders, and cutters (he’s also thrown a smattering of four-seamers) in eight-and-two-thirds innings of work. Down on the farm, he’d heavily featured his slider while fanning 82 batters and allowing 43 hits in 63-and-a-third frames.

His velocity is indeed underwhelming. And not only has Pennington been averaging just 91.7 mph with his heaters, his arsenal doesn’t include a breaking ball that sweeps or dips in eye-catching fashion. Your stereotypical power pitcher he’s not.

Asking Pennington how he profiles on the mound elicited some intriguing answers. Read the rest of this entry »

The other day, I wrote about Jake McCarthy’s BABIP, and touched on an assumption about which kinds of hitters are going to put up outlier numbers in that stat. McCarthy hits a lot of grounders, which generally produce a higher BABIP than fly balls (though they’re less productive by other metrics). He’s also left-handed and very fast, which means he ought to be able to beat out grounders for infield singles.

So let’s take a little gander at the infield hit rate leaderboard for qualified hitters. This is the percentage of groundballs a batter produces that turn into infield hits. Simple enough:

So yeah, Bellinger is primarily known for grinding hanging curveballs to make his bread, but in spite of his size, he is a left-handed fast guy. That tracks. Peña is a righty, but he’s very fast. His average home-to-first time is actually in the top 20 among all hitters — lefties and righties alike — this season. And because Peña hits so many grounders, he leads all batters in total infield hits with 24.

And then there’s Rhys Hoskins. Wait, what? Read the rest of this entry »

This is Michael Rosen’s first piece as a FanGraphs contributor. You may have read his previous work at the site, including his article about the Kirby Index, a metric he created to measure command using release angles. He lives in Los Angeles and works as a transportation planner.

Earlier this year, I tried to solve the riddle of how Shota Imanaga threw his invisible fastball. The pitch had (and still has) a rare combination of traits: At the time of writing, only Imanaga and Cristian Javier threw fastballs from super flat vertical approach angles (VAA) with elite induced vertical break (IVB). A fastball with a flat VAA or high IVB plays a trick on the hitter’s perception; a fastball with both qualities becomes nearly unhittable, or invisible, when located at the top of the zone. I posed two questions in that piece: Why was this invisible fastball so rare? And what was Imanaga specifically doing to throw a fastball with these traits?

The first question can be answered, my research shows, by looking directly at release angles. Release angles reflect the direction that the pitcher is aiming the ball at release, which I wrote about at length in my article on the Kirby Index from May. That act of aiming — specifically, the direction the ball is oriented out of the pitcher’s hand — also affects the amount of backspin on a four-seam fastball. Read the rest of this entry »

Austin Wells is doing more than just establishing himself as a solid everyday catcher in his first full big-league season. Thanks in part to a hot July that saw him slug five home runs and put up a .941 OPS, he’s been batting cleanup for the New York Yankees. The 25-year-old left-handed-hitting backstop isn’t exactly on his way to becoming the next Yogi Berra or Bill Dickey, but what he’s doing is notable nonetheless.

In the present-day iteration of the Bronx Bombers, slotting into the four-hole means following Juan Soto and Aaron Judge in the lineup. Is it easier or harder to hit directly behind a pair of players who are on track for the Hall of Fame? I asked Wells that question last weekend at Fenway Park.

“I think it’s easier or harder depending on the pressure you put on yourself,” replied Wells, whom the Yankees drafted 28th overall in 2020 out of the University of Arizona. “If you look at it like you’re expected to do what they’re doing, then there’s going to be a lot of pressure to perform. Being able to stay in your zone and know what you do well takes the pressure off.”

That he’s not about to match the exploits of the team’s dynamic duo is stating the obvious. Judge has 41 home runs and a 216 wRC+ in the current campaign, while comparably a mere mortal (can a superstar be a more mortal?) Soto has 27 home runs and a 187 wRC+. Wells understands that he isn’t at their level. At the same time, he’s not about to put strict limits on his long-ball potential.

“They’re going to hit 40-plus homers every single year, and that’s not never been me,” the humble-yet-confident catcher told me. “I mean, who knows? It could possibly happen, but right now my is to keep the lineup moving. That’s where I’m at right now.”

Wells’s overall numbers on the season include eight home runs, a 116 wRC+ over 253 plate appearances, and 2.5 WAR.

Eric Longenhagen is bullish on his potential. When our Yankees Top Prospects list went up in December, my colleague described a swing “beautifully connected from the ground up,” adding that the “blend of his barrel control and the natural lift in his swing gives him a potent contact and power combination.” Despite concerns about his defense — primarily his throwing arm — Longenhagen assigned Wells a 50 FV.

His work behind the plate has been more than adequate. While his throwing remains a bit below average, Wells is plus-six in Framing Runs Above Average and he has seven Defensive Runs Saved. The strides he’s made defensively are laudable.

“I believe in my ability to get better every time I catch,” said Wells. “That’s been the biggest key, just believing. It’s led me to where I’m at now, and hopefully it continues to lead me into even better catching, better numbers, and more wins.”

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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS

Bobby Richardson went 1 for 17 against Eli Grba.

Doug Gwosdz went 1 for 11 against Steve Carlton.

Mark Grudzielanek went 9 for 11 against Tim Hudson.

Doug Mientkiewicz went 7 for 11 against Bronson Arroyo.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia went 7 for 15 against Jeremy Guthrie.

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I recently talked to a pitcher who described what he considers the worst pitch he’s thrown all season, and while I haven’t yet shared his telling — stay tuned — the conversation did lead me down the same path with Tarik Skubal prior to last night’s Tigers-Royals game at Comerica Park. He cited a pitch that Hunter Renfroe stroked for a run-scoring extra-base the previous night.

“I threw a changeup that cut like crazy,” Skubal told me. “Whenever I do that, I usually throw the ball out. I didn’t throw the ball out. On the next pitch, I gave up a double down the line on a changeup that cut again. I should have thrown it out, but instead, I was like, ‘Ah, what are the odds I cut it twice in a row?’”

Skubal explained that of all his pitches, the changeup is most-impacted by a difference in baseballs. Moreover, not all baseballs are created equal. As the Tigers ace put it, “Some balls are wound a little different — the seams are a little different — so the seam effect isn’t consistent. I rely on a lot of seam effect with that pitch specifically.”

Skubal went on to say that the pitch he threw to Renfroe cut enough that it registered as a slider. In reality, it was a changeup delivered with a baseball that he normally would have thrown out — but regretfully didn’t.

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A quiz:

Fergie Jenkins has the most career wins (284) by a pitcher born in Canada. Which Canadian-born pitcher has the second-most wins? (A hint: He won a World Series ring in the current century.)

The answer can be found below.

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NEWS NOTES

A reminder that SABR’s 52nd annual convention will be held in downtown Minneapolis beginning this Wednesday and running through Saturday. Featured speakers include Bert Blyleven, Rod Carew, Tony Oliva, and Twins GM Thad Levine. More information can be found here.

Denny Lemaster, a left-handed pitcher whose MLB career spanned the 1962-1972 season, died on July 24 at age 85. LeMaster went 17-11 with the Milwaukee Braves in 1964 and later played with the Houston Astros and Montreal Expos.

Reyes Moronta, who had been pitching in the Mexican League after playing for four MLB teams from 2017-2023, died in a motor vehicle accident this past week at age 31 (per Baseball Player Passings). The Santo Domingo native made 136 of his 177 big-league appearances with the San Francisco Giants.

Jim Weber, the longtime play-by-play announcer for the Toledo Mud Hens, has died at age 78. He began calling games for Detroit’s Triple-A affiliate in 1975.

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The answer to the quiz Ryan Dempster, with 132 wins. The Sechelt, British Columbia native won a World Series with the Boston Red Sox in 2013.

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When the Seattle Mariners acquired Justin Turner at the trade deadline, they brought on board a 39-year-old veteran of 16 big-league seasons who is, for all intents and purposes, a hitting guru in uniform. Reputation-wise, he has been akin to an extra hitting coach in the later part of his career.

I asked Mariners manager Scott Servais if veterans of Turner’s ilk can positively impact young hitters when they join a new team.

“Absolutely,” said Servais. “I’ve often said that as coaches and managers you talk to players and try to lead them in a certain direction, but players are always going to listen to players more than they listen to others — and certainly to a guy that has a track record like Justin Turner has.”

Following up, I asked the ninth-year skipper if he could give an example of a player who came to one of his teams and made an especially-meaningful impact. It wasn’t a position player he named, but rather a pitcher.

“When we signed Robbie Ray [prior to the 2022 season],” said Servais. “We’re seeing the maturing of Logan Gilbert and George Kirby. A lot of what Robbie brought, those guys have taken and run with. You see it happen all over the league… It’s welcome. Players like it. I enjoy it. If you have a guy like that who carries so much respect amongst the group, it’s a way for me to funnel messaging through.”

Servais proceeded to add an entertaining caveat:

“If he agrees. If he doesn’t agree, that’s another conversation. Those have happened before too. But it is another voice.”

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FOREIGN AFFAIRS

The Kia Tigers have the KBO’s best record, at 61-42-2. The Kiwoom Heroes have the KBO’s worst record, at 45-57.

Hyun Jin Ryu is 6-6 with a 3.91 ERA in 115 innings with the Hanwha Eagles. The 37-year-old left-hander spent seven seasons with the KBO club before pitching in MLB from 2013-2023.

Mel Rojas Jr. is slashing .338/.433/.593 with 25 home runs in 480 plate appearances for the KBO’s KT Wiz. The 34-year-old former Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves prospect last played stateside in 2017.

Jeter Downs signed with NPB’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks earlier this week. A first-round pick by the Cincinnati Reds in 2017 who was later part of the Mookie Betts trade between the Red Sox-Dodgers, the 26-year-old infielder was released by the Yankees on July 30.

Shugo Maki is slashing .274/.333/.482 with 16 home runs in 363 plate appearances for the Yokohama BayStars. A three-time NPB All-Star, the 26-year-old second baseman has stolen nine bases without getting caught.

The Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks have NPB’s best record, at 62-31. The Saitama Seibu Lions have NPB’s worst record, at 29-64.

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I’ve mentioned Hiroto Takahashi a handful of times this season, and for good reason: The 21-year-old Chunichi Dragons right-hander has been NPB’S most-dominant pitcher. In 13 starts, Takahashi has a record of 8-1 to go with a 0.48 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 93 innings. Moreover, he has surrendered just 58 hits, none of which have left the yard.

Wanting to know more about him, I asked one of his 2023 World Baseball Classic teammates for a snapshot scouting report.

“I haven’t faced him, but velocity-wise he throws really hard,“ Red Sox DH Masataka Yoshida told me prior to a recent game at Fenway Park. “The breaking ball is elite level, too. He’s got different [pitches] in his arsenal that can be used as a put-away pitch. He definitely has the potential to come over here in the future.”

In search of another perspective, I also checked in with my friend Jim Allen (@JballAllen).

“He’s the real deal,” the Tokyo-based baseball scribe replied via email. “He lacks the velocity that makes MLB GMs drool like they do over [Roki] Sasaki, but his secondary pitches are probably better. I don’t have his max, but my guess would be 98 mph. He sits at 95.”

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A random obscure former player snapshot:

Don Leshnock faced five batters in a scoreless inning for the Detroit Tigers against the California Angels on June 7, 1972. The southpaw from Youngstown, Ohio retired Leo Cardenas on a groundout, then sandwiched singles by Sandy Alomar Sr. and Mickey Rivers with punch-outs of Nolan Ryan and Vada Pinson. It was his only big-league game. Prior to that outing, Leshnock hurled a no-hitter while playing for the Carolina League’s Rocky Mount Leafs in 1970.

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FARM NOTES

Travis Bazzana hit his first professional home run on Wednesday as the High-A Lake County Captains lambasted the Beloit Sky Carp 17-5. The 21-year-old native of New South Wales, Australia was drafted first overall this summer by the Cleveland Guardians.

The Minnesota Twins promoted their top-rated prospect, Walker Jenkins, to High-A Cedar Rapids earlier this week. Drafted fifth overall last year out of a Southport, North Carolina high school, the 19-year-old outfielder had been slashing .273/.404/.413 with three home runs and a 139 wRC+ with the Fort Myers Mighty Mussels.

Cole Carrigg is slashing .284/.360/.472 with 10 home runs and a 133 wRC+, and has swiped 36 bases in 44 attempts, with the High-A Spokane Indians. Drafted in the second round last year out of San Diego State University, the 22-year-old infielder/outfielder is No. 25 on our Colorado Rockies Top Prospects list.

Keiverson Ramirez has a 4-1 record to go with a 0.71 ERA and a 2.39 FIP over 38 innings in the Dominican Summer League. The 18-year-old right-hander from Valencia, Venezuela was signed by the St. Louis Cardinals in January.

The Tigers won the Florida Complex League championship on Monday by defeating the Pirates 12-1. Detroit’s rookie-level affiliate was managed by Salvador Paniagua.

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My writeup of the trade deadline deal that sent a pair of New York Yankees prospects to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for Mark Leiter Jr. included reports on on the promising youngsters from Eric Longenhagen. My colleague isn’t the only source I solicited a perspective from. I also reached out to someone who has seen all of Ben Cowles’s games this season, and the majority of Jack Neely’s.

“Cowles shows confidence and comfortability at all three infield positions (other than first base),” Somerset Patriots broadcaster Steven Cusumano said of the 24-year-old infielder, who had a 140 wRC+ with the Double-A affiliate. “I wouldn’t say that he stuck out at any one over the other; he plays all three very, very well. He is as consistent a player as they come, including defensively, in spite of how much inconsistency there would be in what position he played every day. Also worth mentioning, he’s as good a baserunner as you’ll find. That quickness does show in the field from time-to-time and he has excellent baseball instincts.

“Neely profiles as a back-end reliever: big and intimidating presence with two excellent pitches,” he said of the 24-year-old right-handed reliever who had a 2.90 ERA over 31 innings with Somerset. “Fastball (94-97) and a really good slider (82-25). Huge frame physically, a lot of tenacity on the mound and one of the most confident players you’ll ever encounter.”

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I also solicited quotes for a trade that I didn’t write about. The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Nick Yorke from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for right-hander Quinn Priester, and I asked two of the 22-year-old infield prospect’s former teammates for their thoughts on him.

“He’s a good player, man,” Boston infielder Jamie Westbrook said of Yorke, whom Eric Longehagen has assigned a 45 FV. “He’s got good bat-to-ball. He’s got some pop. He drives the ball to right field well. He plays a good second base and has also started to play the outfield this year. When I was with Yorkie for a short period of time in [Triple-A] Worcester, he had good at-bats and moved the ball around. I would hate to put a comp on him, but he’s a solid player.”

“Outside of the player he is, he is one of the best friends I’ve had in the organization,” said Red Sox infielder/outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela. “He’s’s a tremendous person. He’s always there for you as a teammate. And he’s obviously a good hitter. I’ve seen him through the years, and he’s getting better and better. Hopefully he will get the chance there to play in the major leagues.”

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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

Over The Monster’s Maura McGurk went to a Decemberists concert and proceeded to wonder what’s next for the Red Sox now that the trade deadline has passed.

Trade acquisition Yusei Kikuchi utilized his changeup more frequently than he had in Toronto while fanning 11 batters in his Houston Astros debut. Chandler Rome has the story at The Athletic (subscription required).

The Athletic’s Zack Meisel wrote about CC Sabathia’s journey from unpolished draft pick to Cleveland Hall of Famer (subscription required).

Ron LeFlore made his major league debut with the Detroit Tigers on August 1, 1974, one year after he’d been released from Jackson State Prison, where he served a sentence for armed robbery. Adam Henig wrote about it for The Metro Times.

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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

The Chicago White Sox have a record of 27-86 following their worst-in-franchise-history 19th straight loss last night. The 1962 New York Mets, who infamously finished 40-120, were 30-83 through 113 games.

The Milwaukee Brewers are a big-league-best 46-4 this year when outhitting their opponents. The Detroit Tigers, at 40-4, have the second-best record when outhitting their opponents.

Nine consecutive Kansas City Royals batters had hits in the seventh inning of Friday night’s 9-2 win over the Detroit Tigers. The nine straight hits tied a franchise record that had been set in a May 7, 1980 game against the Chicago White Sox.

Kansas City shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has gone 16-for-22 in his last six games against the White Sox.

George Kirby hasn’t allowed more than three walks in any of his 79 big-league starts. The Seattle Mariners right-hander is the only pitcher in the modern era with at least 50 starts and more games started than walks allowed (56).

Max Scherzer has has 3,405 strikeouts and 112 HBPs.
Justin Verlander has 3,393 strikeouts and 113 HBPs.

In 1980, the Billy Martin-managed Oakland Athletics had five starters throw 211 or more innings and combine to throw 93 complete games. Bob Lacey, who made 46 of his 47 appearances as a reliever, threw a complete-game shutout in his lone start.

Players born on today’s date include Gabe Gabler, whose big-league career comprised three pinch-hit appearances for the Chicago Cubs in 1958. The St. Louis native fanned all three times.

Also born on today’s date was Ray Oyler, who started 70 games at shortstop for the 1968 World Series champion Detroit Tigers despite slashing just .135/.213/.186 over the course of the season. The slick-fielding, offensively-inept infielder had a sacrifice bunt in his lone Fall Classic plate appearance.

On today’s date in 1934, the New York Giants scored 11 runs in the ninth inning while routing the Philadelphia Phillies 21-4 in the second game of a Saturday double-header. Right-hander Reggie Grabowski incurred all of the damage in his lone inning of work, while Mel Ott finished 4-for-4 with two homers, a double, and six runs scored.

On August 5, 2001, the Cleveland Indians rallied from a 14-2 seventh-inning deficit to beat the Seattle Mariners 15-14. Omar Vizquel’s two-out, bases-clearing triple in the ninth tied it, while Jolbert Cabrera’s walk-off single plated Kenny Lofton in the 11th to cap the comeback.

The biggest positive of this frustrating Chicago Cubs season has been the emergence of Shota Imanaga as a frontline starter. As you probably remember, Imanaga was introduced to the wider American baseball-watching public when he started the gold medal game of the 2023 World Baseball Classic for Team Japan.

Well, he’s not the only Cubs starter who had a breakout performance against Team USA at the 2023 WBC. During pool play, Javier Assad came out of the bullpen at Chase Field and mowed down three innings’ worth of American hitters. With only nine appearances’ worth of major league experience, Assad was a relative unknown at the time. Since then, he’s claimed a regular spot in a good Chicago rotation, and pitched very well. Read the rest of this entry »

A common refrain in baseball is that you can never have enough pitching, and that doesn’t apply solely to starters. A well-stocked bullpen can be just as important to a club, which is why a lot of contenders dealt for relievers as the trade deadline approached. Two such clubs were the Boston Red Sox, who acquired Lucas Sims from the Cincinnati Reds and Luis Garcia from the Los Angeles Angels, and the New York Yankees, who acquired Mark Leiter Jr. from the Chicago Cubs and Enyel De Los Santos from the San Diego Padres.

Let’s look at two of those deals — the trades for Garcia and De Los Santos will be covered in another post — beginning with Boston getting Sims in exchange for 19-year-old pitching prospect Ovis Portes.

With setup men Chris Martin and Justin Slaten both on the injured list — their return dates are uncertain — the Red Sox have been badly in need of proven bullpen arms. Late-inning implosions contributed heavily to the team’s losing seven of 10 games coming out of the All-Star break, with Chase Anderson, Bailey Horn, and Greg Weissert among the pitchers of record in the defeats. When you’re battling for a Wild Card berth, those aren’t ideal options for high-leverage situations. Read the rest of this entry »

At best, the Rays (54-52) and Cubs (51-56) are on the outskirts of their leagues’ respective Wild Card races, and while both have been busy ahead of the July 30 trade deadline, they’re geared towards improving for down the road rather than this season. On Sunday, the two teams came together for a swap of club-controlled third basemen, with Isaac Paredes heading to Chicago and Christopher Morel to Tampa Bay along with a pair of pitching prospects, righties Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson.

The 25-year-old Paredes is no stranger to the Cubs, as they signed him out of Mexico for an $800,000 bonus in July 2015, then traded him to Tigers on July 31, 2017 — when he was still in A-ball — alongside Jeimer Candelario in exchange for Alex Avila and Justin Wilson. Since being dealt to the Rays in April 2022, he’s developed into an effective middle-of-the-lineup hitter. After receiving down-ballot MVP support for his 31-homer, .250/.352/.488 (137 wRC+) performance last year, he made his first All-Star team this year, and is currently hitting .245/.357/.435 (130 wRC+) with 16 homers.

Despite that output, Paredes does not hit the ball very hard. His 85-mph average exit velocity ranks in just the fourth percentile, while his 26.1% hard-hit rate is in the fifth percentile; his 5.4% barrel rate is in the 26th percentile. But Paredes excels at pulling fly balls, and particularly at depositing them into the left field corner, which at Tropicana Field is closer to home plate (315 feet) than any current ballpark, since balls hit to Fenway Park’s Green Monster (310 feet away but with a 37-foot high wall) and Minute Maid’s Crawford Boxes (315 feet away with a 21-foot high wall) both require greater elevation to get out. Entering Sunday, Paredes’ 46 pulled fly balls tied him with Anthony Santander for the major league lead, with all 16 of his homers coming via that route. Read the rest of this entry »