Even though the Diamondbacks lost on Wednesday, they did still win the series against the Reds. Now, granted, many teams have won series against the Reds, but for Arizona, this was a much-needed step forward. You might remember that the Diamondbacks opened the season on a tear; they didn’t lose their first series until the middle of this month. Through play on May 1, no team in either league had a better record. Critically, nine games in the standings separated the Diamondbacks from the Dodgers. That particular gap is now down to two games, as Arizona fell on hard times. Since play on May 2, no team in either league has a worse record. After winning 21 of 29, the club has dropped 19 of 26. It’s not a lethal collapse, but all the early gains have been erased.

Here’s the Diamondbacks’ season, in visual form:

Since getting to 21-8, the Diamondbacks’ playoff odds have dropped by 50 percentage points. That’s easily the biggest drop over the span of time — the Blue Jays are down 36 points, and the Mets are down 27. There remains plenty of time to turn this around. The injury bug has been especially hungry. But it’s worth reflecting on exactly what’s happened. In certain ways, Arizona’s May has been historic.

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Since the beginning of the 2016 season, four pitchers who have thrown 100-or-more innings have an ERA under 2.00. Three of them — Zach Britton (1.38), Andrew Miller (1.72), Kenley Jansen (1.75) — rank among the most-accomplished bullpen arms in the game. The other name on the list might surprise you.

Since making his big-league debut on May 30, 2016, Baltimore Orioles left-hander Richard Bleier has boasted a 1.84 ERA in 112-and-two-thirds innings.

Bleier’s under-the-radar effectiveness has come over the course of 103 relief appearances, the first 23 of which came with the New York Yankees. His efforts went unappreciated in the Bronx. Despite a solid showing — five earned runs allowed in 23 frames — the Bombers unceremoniously swapped Bleier to Baltimore for a PTBNL or cash considerations in February of last year.

The 31-year-old southpaw attributes an August 2016 addition to his repertoire for his late-bloomer breakthrough. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All the numbered prospects here also appear on THE BOARD, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. Click here to visit THE BOARD.

50 FV Prospects

Duplantier was held back in extended this year due to a minor hamstring issue but has had no arm issues as a pro after dealing with shoulder trouble at Rice. He sits 93-96, will touch 98. His delivery is odd, but it’s been a while since Duplantier has been hurt, so, for now, it’s not a concern. He projects as a mid-rotation starter.

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Judges love it when litigants reach a settlement. Some judges love it so much that they give each side’s lawyer a token of appreciation for finalizing a deal. I’ve been in front of judges who handed out everything from stickers to candy bars. Last week, the Arizona Diamondbacks settled a lawsuit with Maricopa County. They got themselves a baseball stadium for their efforts.

But first, let’s back up a bit. The Diamondbacks have long wanted a new ballpark. Maricopa County, which owns the current park, wouldn’t let the team leave. So the team sued the county last year.

From Rebekah Sanders of the Arizona Republic:

The Diamondbacks’ lease with the county, which owns the stadium, prevents the team from talking with outside groups until 2024, and requires the team to play in its current home until 2028.

The Maricopa County Superior Court lawsuit is the latest twist in a long-running conflict over which party is responsible for as much as $187 million in repairs and upgrades to Chase Field. The team threatened to sue last year after negotiations with the county broke down.

The county argues that a portion of the upgrades are cosmetic and the team’s financial responsibility, and that the county will have enough money over the long term to meet its share of the obligations. The Diamondbacks counter that the county-run stadium district has not set aside enough money for needed upgrades and is risking safety.

The idea of a new stadium for the Snakes might seem, on the surface, to be ridiculous. After all, Chase Field was only just built in 1998. It’s younger than both Ronald Acuna and Gleyber Torres. That being said, the Team and County have been involved in a protracted legal battle, predating even that lawsuit, over the maintenance of the stadium. That’s because the stadium has had its share of maintenance misadventures in recent history, from burst pipes to failed HVAC systems. And each side blamed the other, with the team saying MLB would require them to move unless the county agreed to pay for repairs, while Maricopa County’s attorney, Cameron Artigue, had a more colorful response.

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Although the Diamondbacks snapped a six-game losing streak on Tuesday night via a 2-1 come-from-behind victory over the Brewers at Chase Field, an 8-2 drubbing on Wednesday means they’ve now lost seven of eight and 10 of 13 to fall to 25-18. Particularly with the loss of A.J. Pollock to a fractured left thumb, the NL West leaders have begun to look quite vulnerable. Their offense has ground to a halt, eking out just 2.53 runs per game this month, they’ve got an increasing number of rotation concerns, and according to our Playoff Odds report, they’ve lost more ground over the past week than any other team.

The big news is the loss of Pollock, who rolled his glove hand awkwardly after coming up empty in a dive for a drive off the bat of Tyler Saladino on Monday night. Pollock suffered an avulsion fracture, meaning one that occurred where a tendon or ligament attaches to bone. Fortunately, he doesn’t need surgery. Adding insult to injury, however, Saladino was able to round the bases for an inside-the-park home run in what turned out to be a 7-2 defeat.

The shame of it is that Pollock — who, after a breakout 2015, missed most of 2016 with a fractured right elbow and a good chunk of 2017 with a groin strain — appeared to be on his way to an impressive season, hitting .293/.349/.620 with 11 homers, a 156 wRC+, and 2.3 WAR. As Craig Edwards noted just last week, the 30-year-old center fielder had benefited from a more aggressive approach and some tweaks to his swing, sacrificing some amount of contact for power. Both his slugging percentage and WAR lead the National League, while his home-run total ranks third, and his wRC+ sixth.

As Arizona Central’s Nick Piecoro pointed out, Pollock is the third Diamondback to miss significant time this season due to an injury sustained while diving for a ball, after right fielder Steven Souza Jr. and third baseman Jake Lamb. Souza suffered a right pectoral strain in late March — a spring-training game — and didn’t make his season debut until May 3. Lamb sprained the AC joint in his left shoulder while going for a foul ball on April 2 and then battled a bout of inflammation while rehabbing. He’s finally on track to return this weekend.

For as much as manager Torey Lovullo may have praised each of the injured players’ maximum effort, the losses of Souza (who posted a 120 wRC+ for Tampa Bay last year) and Lamb (111 for Arizona) have contributed to the Diamondbacks’ offensive struggles, and that of Pollock figures to as well. The team’s .220 batting average ranks dead last in the majors, their .300 on-base percentage just two points out of last, their .380 slugging percentage is 28th, and their 84 wRC+ 27th. Amid this month’s offensive drought, they’ve slipped to 13th in the league in scoring at 3.95 runs per game. Thanks to the improbably solid work of Daniel Descalso, the owner of a career 83 wRC+, the team’s third basemen have combined for a solid .242/.333/.425 (106 wRC+) line, but between Jarrod Dyson, Chris Owings, and Souza, who’s 6-for-39 since returning, the team’s right fielders have “hit” a combined .166/.236/.276 for a 37 wRC+. All three need to find their strokes, as Dyson and Owings figure to cover for Pollock’s absence. Whatever gains Owings (.202/.266/.316, 56 wRC+) and shortstop Nick Ahmed (.213/.275/.412, 82 wRC+) made early in the season via what Piecoro described as a team-wide philosophical shift to a hitting approach based upon pitch tunnels appear to have vanished.

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You sure wouldn’t think there would be anything wrong with the Diamondbacks. They currently have the best record in the National League by multiple games, and even after a loss on Wednesday, there’s an eight-game gap between them and the Dodgers with almost a quarter of the season already gone. They survived the absence of Steven Souza Jr. They’re actively surviving the absence of Jake Lamb. They’ll try to continue to survive the absence of Taijuan Walker. No team ever stays totally healthy.

And one of the big early stories has been the breakthrough by Patrick Corbin. After eight starts, Corbin owns a 2.12 ERA, with an easy career-high rate of strikeouts. The biggest change for Corbin has been an increased reliance on his best pitch — his slider. He’s now throwing the pitch at multiple speeds, sort of going the way of Rich Hill or Lance McCullers. Corbin is setting himself up for an offseason payday. And on the surface, he’s cruising, having allowed just two runs over his last two starts.

Yet something underneath is incredibly worrisome. Something fundamental to the very idea of pitching. Corbin has suddenly lost his zip. No one would do that on purpose.

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In 2015, A.J. Pollock posted the sixth-best WAR in baseball. The Arizona Diamondbacks center fielder put up 6.8 WAR — a total that trailed only Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Josh Donaldson, Joey Votto, and Paul Goldschmidt. The 27-year-old hit 20 homers, stole 39 bases in 46 tries, rarely struck out, and complemented all that with good defense for a great season.

A fractured right elbow right at the start of the 2016 season robbed Pollock of a chance at a repeat, and last year he turned in a diminished version of his 2015 season while missing time due to a groin strain. Last year might have put to rest any ideas that the Pollock of old would return. The 2015 Pollock hasn’t returned this season, either. Rather, we’ve seen a new-and-improved Pollock who could be better than the burgeoning star we thought we had three years ago.

Through 33 games, Pollock already has 10 home runs, three triples, and nine doubles, his 22 extra-base hits tied with Mike Trout and behind only Mookie Betts and Ozzie Albies. Pollock’s .306/.362/.669 line produces a 173 wRC+ that ranks fifth in the sport, with his 2.1 WAR coming in behind only Trout, Betts, and Didi Gregorius. He’s on his way to a great year, and through the first 33 games of the season, he’s hit better than he ever has. The graph below shows Pollock’s 33-game rolling average of his wRC+ over his career.

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Last week, the bell tolled for the 2018 season of the Diamondbacks’ Taijuan Walker. The week before that, it tolled for the Padres’ Dinelson Lamet, and before him, the Angels’ JC Ramirez and the A’s A.J. Puk. If it feels like March and April are particularly full of Tommy John surgery casualties, that’s because they are, at least when it comes to recent history. In early March, just after Rays righty Jose De Leon discovered that he had torn his ulnar collateral ligament, I noted some recent trends regarding everyone’s favorite (?) reconstructive elbow procedure, including the extent to which those early-season injuries are rather predictive of the season-long trend. With April now in the books, and with my nose still in Jon Roegele’s Tommy John Surgery Database, the situation is worth a closer look.

Via the data I published in the De Leon piece, just under 28% of all Tommy John surgeries done on major- or minor-league pitchers (not position players) from 2014-17 took place in March or April, with the figure varying only from 24.8 % to 30.0% in that span. Even expanding the scope to include February as well, which doesn’t increase the total number of surgeries by much but does capture significant ones such as that of Alex Reyes last year — gut punches that run counter to the optimism that reigns when pitchers and catchers report — the range is narrow, with 27.5% to 33.0% of pitcher surgeries taking place in that span.

After my piece was published, a reader pointed out that The Ringer’s Ben Lindbergh took an in-depth look at the phenomenon, but intuitively, it’s not hard to understand. Not only do pitchers’ activity levels ramp up dramatically once spring training begins, as they move from lighter offseason throwing programs to facing major-league hitters and therefore place far more stress on their arms, but many pitchers are finally forced to reckon with injuries that did not heal over the winter.

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The Diamondbacks are way out in first place in the National League West, and while the biggest story might arguably be the early struggles of the Dodgers, Arizona has issued an immediate reminder that last year this club just won 93 games. J.D. Martinez is gone, playing now in Boston. Steven Souza Jr. is on the disabled list. Jake Lamb is also on the disabled list. But the Diamondbacks have still thrived, not even needing that many surprises. Patrick Corbin is one — his development has been an encouraging turn. And then there’s the matter of the shortstop. The no-hit glove guy who had to fight for a job.

Before the year, for the Effectively Wild podcast, Ben Lindbergh and I ran our annual season-preview series. When it came time to talk about the Diamondbacks, we chatted with guest Nick Piecoro. Piecoro expressed what I found to be a surprising amount of optimism about Nick Ahmed. Ahmed had never before hit well in the majors, and his peripheral skills didn’t suggest a strong offensive foundation. How many no-hit shortstops figure it out at 28? Ahmed was never a threat. Suffice to say Piecoro caught me off guard.

And now here we are, and as early as it is, Ahmed owns a three-digit wRC+. By itself, that’s not much. Roughly half of all batters will have a three-digit wRC+. But you have to remember where Ahmed is coming from. You have to remember his record.

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Even at FanGraphs, I’m one of the last people you should ask about swagger. Among the few things I know about swagger, though, is that Jarrod Dyson has it. He plays his game with a particular flair, and it was on display earlier Thursday, when Dyson struck a pose after lifting his 14th career home run. You wouldn’t think that a hitter with Dyson’s profile would necessarily recognize a homer off the bat, but for a fleeting instant, as Dyson’s body twisted on its right heel, he looked like he’d done this a hundred other times.

Dyson knew it right away. Apparently, so did the catcher. The game was one of those miserable new Facebook broadcasts, so I can’t speak highly of the viewing experience, but as the feed rolled into a replay of the swing, one of the announcer’s voices cracked as he exclaimed, “He bunted last night! With the bases juiced!”

He wasn’t wrong, and if it weren’t for him, I wouldn’t have known. On Thursday, Jarrod Dyson went deep. On Wednesday, he dropped down a bases-loaded bunt. Both of these events are unusual, but I’d like to now focus on the latter.

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