You can’t have too much pitching, and despite boasting arguably the majors’ deepest rotation in the spring, the Dodgers are depleted enough to continue hunting for reinforcements even after their big pickups at the trade deadline. Just hours before they took the wraps off marquee acquisition Max Scherzer, they added another well-decorated 37-year-old hurler to their reserve, signing free agent lefty Cole Hamels to an incentive-based one-year deal in hopes that he can help to offset their various injuries, absences, and workload concerns.

Mind you, there are no guarantees with 37-year-old arms, and that’s especially true for Hamels, a four-time All-Star and World Series MVP who is working to put his own recent string of injuries behind him. He’s pitched in just one game since the end of the 2019 season, and the second half of that campaign was a slog. On the strength of an improved changeup, Hamels posted a 2.98 ERA and 3.59 FIP in his first 99.2 innings for the Cubs in 2019, but left his June 28 start with an oblique strain. After missing five weeks, he struggled to regain his velocity and deception, getting hit for a 5.79 ERA and 5.29 FIP in 10 starts upon returning, and he made just one start after September 16 due to shoulder fatigue. Still, he finished with a 3.81 ERA, 4.09 FIP and 2.4 WAR, the last two marks his best since 2016.

After reportedly drawing interest from 13 teams, Hamels signed a one-year, $18 million deal with the Braves in December 2019, but by the time he reported to camp in mid-February, he was already ailing, having irritated his shoulder while doing weighted ball exercises as part of his winter workouts. He was behind schedule before the COVID-19 pandemic shut down spring training. About a week before camps reopened, the Braves reported that Hamels was throwing pain free and expected to be ready to start the shortened season, but by mid-July, he was sidelined by triceps tendinitis, deemed unlikely for Opening Day, and placed on the 45-day Injured List the day before the season began. When he finally made his first appearance, on September 16, he lasted just 3.1 innings and 52 pitches, allowing three runs. Before he could take his next turn, he was placed on the 10-day IL with shoulder fatigue, and that was all she wrote.

A free agent again, Hamels reportedly drew the interest of several teams as of December, but nothing materialized before the season began. As of mid-June, he continued to build up strength throwing off a mound, but it wasn’t until July 16 that he finally threw a showcase. Representatives from 20 teams attended, but with attention focused on the July 30 trade deadline, Hamels didn’t sign anywhere until Wednesday.

His deal with the Dodgers isn’t a bank-breaker, guaranteeing Hamels a $1 million base salary (the prorated share of $3.05 million) plus $200,000 for every start or relief appearance of 3.1 innings or longer (terms updated via this AP report); additionally, he has agreed to accept an optional assignment to the minors, and the Dodgers have agreed to recall him no later than September 2. With the team already nearly $65 million past the $210 million Competitive Balance Tax threshold, and nearly $25 million past the third tier threshold, they’ll pay a surtax on his salary. They won’t get a ton of innings from him, as Hamels is first headed to the team’s spring training facility in Arizona. He’s scheduled to throw a two-inning simulated game on Saturday, and to be built up to a starter’s pitch count. The Dodgers don’t need a fifth starter until August 14 agains the Mets, but Hamels would probably have to dazzle in order to make even an abbreviated start in that game.

It’s too early to know how exactly he’ll fit into the Dodgers’ revamped rotation, which currently includes Scherzer (who dazzled in his debut, a seven-inning, 10-strikeout performance against the Astros, bookended by whiffs of Jose Altuve and Chas McCormick, the latter drawing a curtain call), Walker Buehler, Julio Urías, David Price, and a big ol’ TBD. The team lost Dustin May to Tommy John surgery in May, and in the past week placed Tony Gonsolin to the 10-day IL due to shoulder inflammation and traded top pitching prospect Josiah Gray, who had made two appearances, to the Nationals in the Scherzer deal.

The Dodgers don’t know yet when Clayton Kershaw, who has not pitched in a game since July 3 due to forearm inflammation, will return from the IL, and they have worked to distance themselves from Trevor Bauer, who hasn’t pitched for them since June 28 in the wake of sexual assault allegations. Kershaw
had worked his way back to the point of throwing a three-inning simulated game on July 27. The Dodgers hoped he could be ready as soon as this weekend, but he’s now experiencing what manager Dave Roberts termed “residual soreness,” putting his next sim start on hold. Bauer remains on administrative leave through August 6 in connection with two separate investigations, a criminal one by the Pasadena Police Department, and an MLB one in connection with its joint domestic violence policy. His leave is expected to be extended given that his next hearing concerning a temporary restraining order was postponed from July 23 to August 16. Last week, the Los Angeles Times‘ Mike DiGiovanna reported that “a majority of players do not want Bauer back under any circumstances.”

The Dodgers do have one other potential starter waiting in the wings in lefty Danny Duffy, who was acquired from the Royals on July 29. He hasn’t pitched since July 16 due to a flexor strain, however, and isn’t expected back before September. Whether as a starter or multi-inning reliever, he’s not expected to carry a huge workload, but with Urías having already set a career high for innings (129.2), and Price coming off a season in which he opted out due to the pandemic, anybody who can offer a slice of quality innings is welcome.

Hence the signing of Hamels, who in addition to getting a chance to pitch close to home (he’s a San Diego native) is hoping to prolong an impressive career during which he’s won 163 games, struck out 2,560 hitters, and helped teams to eight playoff appearances highlighted by his winning NLCS and World Series MVP honors for the 2008 Phillies. With his time away, the major round-numbered milestones and an outside shot at the Hall of Fame (he’s 13.4 points short of the JAWS standard for starting pitchers) may be out of reach unless he musters some late-career staying power:

Even without such accomplishments, another championship would probably suffice for Hamels. With the playoff-bound Dodgers, he’ll get a shot at that — if he can stay healthy.

What a ride this year’s deadline was. All told, we had 75 prospects move in the last month. They are ranked below, with brief scouting reports written by me and Kevin Goldstein. Most of the deals these prospects were a part of were analyzed at length on this site. An index of those pieces can be found here, or by clicking the hyperlink in the “Trade” column below. I’ve moved all of the players listed here to their new orgs over on The Board, so you can click through to see where they rank among their new teammates. Our farm rankings, which now update live, also reflect these changes, so you can see where teams’ systems stack up post-deadline.

A couple of quick notes before I get to the rankings. We’ve included a few post-prospect players here (those marked in blue) so you can get an idea of where we value them now as opposed to where we had them at their prospect peak. Those players, as well as the Compensatory pick the Rockies will receive after they extend Trevor Story a qualifying offer and he signs elsewhere, are highlighted below. We had closer to 40 prospects (and 23 Players to be Named Later) traded last year, with the PTBNL number inflated by 2020’s COVID-related transaction rules. The backfields are not well-represented here, with just four prospects who have yet to play in full-season ball. Two of those are currently in the DSL and have no official domestic pro experience, though Alberto Ciprian has played stateside for instructs/extended spring training. Now on to the rankings. Read the rest of this entry »

“In a game against the aliens for the survival of the species, who are you giving the ball to?”

Some version of that question has been posed to me many times during my FanGraphs tenure. My response has typically been Max Scherzer, while the most popular answer among readers has leaned toward Clayton Kershaw. Well, now the Dodgers have both after trading for Scherzer and Trea Turner on Thursday. In the process, they gave up their top two prospects in right-handed pitcher Josiah Gray and catcher Keibert Ruiz, as well as potential late-inning reliever Gerardo Carrillo and outfielder Donovan Casey, a former two-way player and hopeful late-bloomer.

Even though Scherzer is a rental, the prospect haul Washington is getting for Mad Max and Turner, who was my pre-season pick to win NL MVP (too cute?), is substantial enough to merit its own piece. As part of the Nationals prospect list this April, I wrote that Washington’s system was so bad that I’d rather take Vanderbilt’s roster and their high school commits than the Nationals’ entire minor league system. The White Sox graduated their handful of top 100 prospects, which sank them below Washington in our rankings; this deal, which includes two top 100 prospects, moves the Nationals from 29th to 24th (our farm system calculations tend to like potential stars more than depth). Read the rest of this entry »

Over the past 10 or so years, the Dodgers have built a juggernaut, with enough talent to withstand both divisional rivals and injury woes. They’ve won the last eight NL West titles and been to three of the past four World Series. This year, though, it looked like that hegemony might finally, finally come to an end. Corey Seager is hurt. Mookie Betts has been banged up and is on the IL. Gavin Lux is out. Dustin May tore his UCL. Cody Bellinger missed a long stretch with a hairline fracture in his leg before suffering a hamstring injury. Clayton Kershaw hasn’t pitched in nearly a month. But with the Giants overperforming and the Dodgers facing an onrush of injury (and suspension), maybe this could be the year.

That feels less likely now, because the Dodgers just flipped the trade market on its head in one fell swoop, acquiring Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals for a kingly ransom of prospects (update: the trade is now official)– Josiah Gray, Keibert Ruiz, Gerardo Carrillo, and Donovan Casey. The deal isn’t final yet, but it appears all but done and will likely be officially announced Friday. Turner was the best position player on the market. Scherzer was the best pitcher on the market. They’re both Dodgers now, more cogs in the most powerful machine in baseball, one that looks increasingly likely to dispatch the Giants and bring home the NL West crown yet again.

As is customary with such a big deal, we’ll cover it in two parts. Here, Eric Longenhagen gives Nats fans a piping-hot helping of prospect analysis — there’s plenty of it in a deal of this magnitude. I’ll focus on the major league side of things, which is to say the Dodgers’ side of things; Washington was already dead in the water in the NL East, but now they’re super dead. Read the rest of this entry »

At the start of the season, the Dodgers had so much pitching depth it was a legitimate question as to how they would effectively use all of their talent. But what was a source of strength for Los Angeles in March has become a reason for cautious concern in July, as the team lost Dustin May to Tommy John surgery in early May and Clayton Kershaw to elbow inflammation in July. In the bullpen, meanwhile, Corey Knebel was lost on April 24 to a lat injury, Scott Alexander went on the IL for a second time on July 20 with left shoulder inflammation, and Joe Kelly is day-to-day with a hamstring injury. The Dodgers shifted Tony Gonsolin and David Price to the rotation to patch some of those holes, but while that pair’s been mostly effective as starters, that’s come at the expense of bullpen depth.

The bottom line is that the Dodgers probably needed to bolster their pitching staff, and that’s been the case since even before Trevor Bauer was placed on administrative leave while MLB and the Pasadena Police Department investigate disturbing charges of sexual assault. His latest hearing was postponed until at least August 16, and MLB has extended his administrative leave until at least August 6; it’s an open question at this point if he’ll pitch again this season (or for Los Angeles).

So with 36 hours until the deadline, the Dodgers made a deal with the Royals to replenish some of that depth with injured veteran Danny Duffy, who is in the final year of his contract and could work as a middle reliever or spot starter. Given his nature as a rental, the two teams will settle on player(s) to be named later from a pre-approved list, with Los Angeles also getting some cash back from Kansas City. Read the rest of this entry »

Joey Gallo is a Yankee, Eduardo Escobar is a Brewer, and Starling Marte will finish his season in Oakland. It’s already been a fast-paced trade season, and there are still a lot of deals that could be done before Friday’s deadline. But as I noted in a piece on Wednesday that looked at the most impactful players on the IL for American League contenders, there are top-flight pitchers and hitters who are not going to be traded but are waiting in the wings. Today I want to look at the NL side of things.

As a reminder, I calculated team injury impact to date this season by looking at the injury ledger data from Baseball Prospectus to determine each team’s injury impact to date in FanGraphs WAR compared to preseason projections. Additionally, while most of the teams I identified as contending had at least one impactful player on the IL, one did not; I’ll still spend some time on the Padres, but they will need to look to the trade market for reinforcements.

Finally, the cutoff for contending is defined as having playoff odds greater than 30%. I’m sure that will frustrate some Philadelphia and Atlanta fans who believe their teams still have a chance to chase down the Mets. For what it’s worth, the Braves are hoping that Ian Anderson and Drew Smyly can return to throw meaningful innings and that Travis d’Arnaud will return to catch them. The Phillies have zero projected position player WAR on the IL at the moment, although starting pitcher Zach Eflin’s return from the 10-day IL should bolster the rotation. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I wrote about the American League clubs whose trade deadline behavior might be influenced, at least in part, by impending 40-man roster crunch. That piece, which includes an intro diddy explaining this whole exercise, can be found here. As a reminder, All of these rosters have a talent foundation at the major league level that won’t be moving, and which I’ll ignore below. Instead, I’m focused on the number of players on the 40-man right now, how many free agents will come off that number at the end of the season, which prospects might be added (or not), and who currently on the 40-man is in danger of being passed by the prospects. For the two categories where the rubber meets the road and it’s unclear what will happen (fringe current 40-man members vs. prospects who’ll possibly be added), I italicize the players I view as less likely to stay, or be added to the 40-man. Today, we’ll consider the National League teams with such crunch.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Current 40-man Count: 46 (40 + six 60-day IL players)
Pending Free Agents: 7 (Clayton Kershaw, Corey Knebel, Corey Seager, Chris Taylor, Kenley Jansen, Jimmy Nelson, Albert Pujols), plus Joe Kelly’s club option
Must-Add Prospects: Jacob Amaya, Michael Grove
Current 40-man Fringe: Billy McKinney, Luke Raley, Jimmie Sherfy, Sheldon Neuse, DJ Peters, Darien Núñez
Prospects on the Fringe: Jose Martinez, James Outman, Jeren Kendall, Guillermo Zuniga, Zach Willeman, Gus Varland, Devin Mann, Ryan Noda

The Dodgers have lots of both low-impact overage and viable big leaguers, but aside from Jacob Amaya, none are likely to be more than a 1-WAR type of role player or middle inning relief piece. The number of departing free agents is high, making Amaya and Grove (who has the best stuff of the potential additions but has been wild this year) comfortable adds, but the rest of the group might find roster equilibrium elsewhere. Read the rest of this entry »

On Tuesday, July 20, Chris Taylor led off the bottom of the first inning with a double off the Giants’ Alex Wood. But he was still hungry, so he homered twice and drew a walk later in the same game.

On Wednesday, Chris Taylor led off the bottom of the first inning with a homer off the Giants’ Logan Webb. But he was still hungry, so he later singled off Webb.

On Thursday, Chris Taylor led off the bottom of the first inning with a single off the Giants Anthony DeSclafani. But he was still hungry.

On Friday, Chris Taylor led off the bottom of the first inning with a double off the Rockies’ Chi Chi González. But he was still hungry, so he later singled off Daniel Bard.

On Saturday, Chris Taylor led off the bottom of the first inning with a single off the Rockies’ Kyle Freeland. But he was still hungry. Read the rest of this entry »

When the Angels designated Albert Pujols for assignment in early May, it seemed as if the decorated slugger had reached the end of the line, especially given the rumors that circulated in February that the 2021 season could be his last. And at the time of the announcement, he was slashing just .198/.250/.372 in 92 plate appearances and amid his fifth-consecutive below-replacement level season. But after clearing waivers, Pujols drew interest from three to four different teams, with the Dodgers coming out of nowhere to sign him to a major league deal at the minimum salary for the rest of the season.

Jay Jaffe wrote about the Dodgers’ acquisition of Pujols at the time and how he could be most effectively used: as a starter at first base, specifically against left-handed pitching. Still, Jay didn’t think the Pujols experiment would endure, especially as Los Angeles’ lineup regained its health, and predicted that the future Hall of Famer would end up taking his final cuts with the Cardinals in September. And though that might still be the case, Pujols has actually produced reasonably well for the Dodgers, providing a good-enough bat to warrant penciling him in the lineup, especially against southpaws.

A .266/.298/.476 slash line isn’t world-beating by any means, but even putting up above-average production is a huge success given where Pujols’ offensive numbers have resided in recent seasons. In fact, he just completed a 30-game stretch from May 29 to July 16 in which he posted a 147 wRC+ on the back of a .313/.341/.588 slash line. It was the best output Pujols has seen in years, even in a sample as small as 30 games:

Read the rest of this entry »

At the outset of the season, the Dodgers were forecast for a major league-high 100 wins thanks to their incredible depth, which included eight plausible candidates for their starting rotation. Thanks to a recent surge, 100 wins remains a realistic target — their .609 winning percentage puts them on pace for 99, and our updated projections forecast them for 98 — but that herd of starters has dwindled due to injuries and other matters. On Wednesday, that herd got even smaller, as the team placed Clayton Kershaw on the 10-day injured list due to a bout of inflammation in his left forearm.

According to manager Dave Roberts, Kershaw “felt something in the elbow” while playing catch earlier this week, but beyond that, there’s no indication as to the severity of his injury, or his prognosis. He’ll undergo an MRI and other tests after the team returns to Los Angeles for its weekend series with the Diamondbacks. With less than a week until the All-Star break, the timing of the move is such that he might only miss one start and would be eligible to return to action on Saturday, July 17.

That said, while this is the sixth season in a row that the three-time Cy Young winner has landed on the injured list, it’s the first time he’s been sidelined for an injury involving his forearm or elbow, and if he’s suffered a strain or a sprain — gulp — he could miss substantial time. Only last season, when he was scratched on Opening Day for a bout of lower back stiffness, has Kershaw returned from the IL as soon as he was eligible:

The 33-year-old Kershaw has pitched well this season, posting a 3.39 ERA and 3.00 FIP in 106.1 innings and lasting at least six innings in 14 of his 18 starts. His FIP, 30.1% strikeout rate, and 25.6% strikeout-walk differential are all his best marks since 2016, respectively ranking sixth, ninth, and third in the NL; he’s also third in walk rate (4.5%). Even so, he was bypassed for a spot on the NL All-Star team, along with every other Dodgers pitcher, despite the team’s NL-low 3.21 ERA and its third-ranked 3.63 FIP. That could change as replacements are announced; Jacob deGrom, for example, has said he will decline his invitation in favor of resting his body and spending time with his family.

Read the rest of this entry »