When the Cardinals signed Brandon Crawford to a one-year, $2 million deal earlier this week, the first thing that popped into my mind was a two-word hashtag. I figured it wouldn’t be long before the Giants’ social media accounts would send out the same thing they always post in response to the departure of a franchise icon: #ForeverGiant.

Of course, #ForeverGiant is a public relations gimmick, a way for the organization to soften the blow for fans who are sad to see one of their favorite players retire or, worse, wearing another team’s uniform. Yet in the case of Crawford, who grew up a Giants fan in the Bay Area and who became the franchise’s all-time leader in games played at shortstop, those two words actually rang true. They weren’t a ploy; they were a promise.

That’s why Crawford’s leaving San Francisco is sad for many Giants fans and weird for the rest of us. But moving on from something and getting over it are not the same thing. It was time for the Giants to move on from Crawford, to let him go somewhere else, even if it wasn’t an easy decision. Read the rest of this entry »

Last year, the Giants had a bit of a run scoring problem. Still, for much of the season, their middle-of-the-pack offense proved to be sufficient thanks to an excellent pitching staff; in early August, our playoff odds had them with an 80% chance of reaching the postseason. But from there, the bats went silent, as San Francisco rounded out the season with a team wRC+ of 83, losing out on not just a playoff spot but also a winning record. These struggles gave the Giants a clear area to upgrade during the offseason, and they did just that, kicking off their winter by signing contact machine Jung Hoo Lee, then later adding thunderous slugger Jorge Soler to the mix.

With these new faces on the roster, let’s think about what the Giants’ everyday lineup will look like. They have clear starters at each up-the-middle position, with Lee in center field, Thairo Estrada and Marco Luciano as the double play combo on the infield, and Patrick Bailey catching. Thanks to comments from general manager Farhan Zaidi, we know the outfield corners will primarily be manned by Mike Yastrzemski and Michael Conforto, with Soler serving as an everyday DH. This leaves the corner infield spots to be staffed by LaMonte Wade Jr., Wilmer Flores, and J.D. Davis. Read the rest of this entry »

Spring training is in full swing, and while there’s still a trickle of higher-profile free agents such as Cody Bellinger and Tim Anderson finding homes — not to mention a handful of unsigned ones, from NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell and postseason stud Jordan Montgomery on down — most teams are taking shape, albeit with plenty to sort out while in camp. Still, all but the powerhouses have some lineup holes remaining, and while they may not be likely to open their checkbooks to land the likes of Matt Chapman, it’s worth keeping their vulnerabilities in mind.

To that end, I wanted to revisit an exercise I performed last year, one that bears more than a passing resemblance to the annual Replacement Level Killers series I roll out prior to the trade deadline. This one is a little different, as it comes prior to the season and relies entirely on our projections, which combine ZiPS and Steamer as well as playing time estimates from RosterResource. Those projections also drive our Playoff Odds.

There are a couple of wrinkles to note here. Where last year and for the in-season series I have generally used a 10% chance of reaching the playoffs as a cutoff for what we might loosely define as a contender, this year’s odds are distributed such that only four teams (the A’s, Nationals, Rockies, and White Sox) fall below that threshold. Thus I’ve raised the cutoff to 25%, leaving the Angels, Pirates, and Royals below the bar but including the Red Sox (25.6% at this writing) and Reds (25.7%), both of which forecast for 80 wins. Gotta love this expanded playoff system, right? Ugh. Read the rest of this entry »

With pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training camp this week, now feels like a good time to run through a few of the reliever transactions from the past two weeks.

Twins sign Jay Jackson to a one-year deal with 2025 team option

Jay Jackson’s baseball career has taken him almost everywhere there is to go. The 36-year old has tossed just 87.1 innings in the majors, but his professional career has spanned three continents, nine major league organizations, and nearly 700 games pitched. Once a highly ranked prospect in the Cubs system, his stock fell as he struggled against upper-minors competition. After a four-inning callup with the Padres in 2015, the 27-year-old Jackson parlayed a strong performance in the Mexican Pacific Winter League into an NPB contract. In 2016, Jackson led all NPB relievers with a 32.8% strikeout rate and 2.6 WAR, helping his Hiroshima Toyo Carp (a team featuring a 21-year old Seiya Suzuki and 41-year old Hiroki Kuroda) to a Central League pennant. He’s spent the past three seasons in North America, being cycled between the majors and minors for the Giants, Braves, and Blue Jays.

Jackson’s arsenal is pretty unremarkable as far as relievers go, throwing a 93 mph fastball and 85 mph slider, with slight preference to the breaking ball. Neither of his pitches stands out notably in spin or movement, but he has consistently gotten batters out and runs above-average whiff rates on his slider. His command has improved since his days as a minor league journeyman, no longer walking a batter every other inning as he did during his first big league stint. Over the past three seasons, he’s landed pitches in the shadow of the zone at a 66th percentile rate, missing bats and avoiding hard contact, as well.

Jackson joins some pretty solid company on his new squad, which now ranks second in projected relief WAR, according to Depth Charts. The Twins have built a strong bullpen with former castoffs and late draft picks like Caleb Thielbar, Brock Stewart, and Kody Funderburk, each more than capable of setting up for closer Jhoan Duran. Jackson, along with fellow new acquisitions Justin Topa and Steven Okert, should be able to handle low-leverage innings on a contending team. It’s not the most glamorous job description, but Jackson is about as good as an eighth reliever gets.

Giants acquire Ethan Small for cash considerations

Once a first-round pick by the Brewers, Ethan Small’s stock has fallen in the past couple years as two formerly projected areas of improvement – command and the discovery of a breaking ball – seem to have stalled out. The former zone-filling ace at Mississippi State has struggled to find the zone, running walk rates north of 11% at every level of the minors; he faced similar issues with walks during two brief stints in the majors. A fastball-changeup specialist, Small has still yet to develop a third pitch five years into his pro career, and Milwaukee officially moved him to relief last year, seemingly resigned to his destiny as a two-pitch hurler. Now, with just one option year remaining, the Brewers decided they have more important talents to keep on the 40-man roster and sent Small westward to figure things out on a new team.

Even without big stuff or velocity, Small stands out thanks to his unique delivery. Standing at 6-foot-4 (and definitely not living up to his name), Small fires from a standard high-slot lefty release point, nearly identical to those of Jordan Montgomery and Carlos Rodón. But the way he gets there is quite different, hiding the ball behind his body before releasing it at an over-the-top angle. His arm action lends well to the shape of his two primary pitches, a low-90s four-seamer and a low-80s changeup, both with near-perfect spin efficiency. As a result, the heater generates above-average carry with almost no horizontal run, oftentimes getting batters to swing under it. And his changeup – well, you should just watch it in action.

This visual beauty of an offering is enhanced by his delivery and synergy with his fastball; both spin on nearly identical axes while one falls off the table after starting from a sky-high arm slot. In Triple-A last year, batters slugged just .226 against the pitch (on par with Merrill Kelly’s changeup) with a swinging strike rate of 17.7%. But he failed to replicate those results during his cups of coffee in Milwaukee, as big leaguers could see the pitch better. What Small’s changeup has in visual appeal, it lacks in actual movement, with below-average marks in both the vertical and horizontal direction. As last season went on and he gained more experience in the bullpen, Small actually threw fewer changeups in favor of a more fastball-heavy diet, a trend that may continue should he stay in a relief role.

Even after a Giants season in which they, at times, ran a two-man rotation, they’ve somehow still managed to find a way to shed volume over the offseason. While rookie Kyle Harrison and new signing Jordan Hicks outclass Anthony DeSclafani and Ross Stripling on a rate basis, neither has ever put up full-time starter innings; Logan Webb is now the only member of their projected Opening Day roster to have done so over a full major league season. The lack of length from the rotation will necessitate longer appearances from the likes of Ryan Walker, Sean Hjelle, and Small – each with multi-inning or starter experience. At this stage in his development, Small certainly isn’t the proverbial lefty with a changeup that sticks around as a starter for a decade, but the potential for him to be a good long reliever is certainly still there. And for the low price of money, the Giants could be the team to cash in during his final 26-man evaluation year.

Angels sign José Cisnero to a one-year contract and acquire Guillermo Zuñiga for cash considerations

In lieu of signing starters, either position players or members of the rotation, the Angels have spent the offseason signing more relievers than I can count with my fingers. José Cisnero and Guillermo Zuñiga are the latest in this bunch to join the staff, one that is certainly new but not as shiny as you’d hope given the sheer number of additions.

Cisnero has spent the past five years on the Tigers, latching on there after a tumultuous early career that included a two-year absence from affiliated baseball. In Detroit, he rattled off a couple of good seasons, including a 2020 campaign where he finished an inning off the league lead in relief usage while maintaining an ERA around three. But like countless other journeyman relievers, his command has seemingly disappeared at times, and he’s experienced large fluctuations in walk rate from season to season.

Despite spending his entire big league career in single-inning relief, Cisnero’s pitch mix hasn’t changed from his days as a starter 15 years ago. He uses each of his five pitches at least 10% of the time, digging into his diverse arsenal to vary his looks based on batter handedness. None of his offerings stand out in terms of pitch value, though his slider is probably the best from a shape perspective, generating almost curveball-like depth with his main offspeed pitch. Cisnero is coming off a season with a 5.31 ERA, primarily the result of batters capitalizing on fastballs left over the plate; he was in a minority of pitchers to amass a negative run value on pitches in the heart zone, per Statcast’s classifications.

In contrast to Cisnero’s unremarkable kitchen-sink arsenal, Zuñiga’s more limited mix can only be described as absolute gas. The 25-year old reliever has had an unusual path to the majors, reaching minor league free agency twice as a prospect due to his original contract being voided in the wake of the John Coppolella scandal. As a farmhand in the Dodgers’ and Cardinals’ systems, Zuñiga developed electric stuff, touching triple digits with his fastball while freezing hitters with his bullet slider. In a two-game cup of coffee last September, he averaged 99 mph and touched 101, striking out four of the eight batters he faced. His command isn’t great, but the primary barrier to his success in the minors was allowing loud contact; he allowed 18 homers in 85 minor league innings across the past two seasons.

We have Zuñiga projected to start the year in Triple-A, not because the guys on the big league roster have better stuff, but simply because he still has minor league options. Of the eight relievers on the Angels’ projected Opening Day roster, only José Soriano can be shuttled to Salt Lake City without being exposed to waivers. But as the season goes along and arms wear down, it’s a near guarantee that we’ll see the Angels make moves to add younger, option-able relievers like Ben Joyce, Sam Bachman, and Zuñiga to the big league club.

Jorge Soler is getting nearly as far away from Miami as he possibly can. The 6’4” power hitter has agreed to a three-year, $42 million deal with the San Francisco Giants. Susan Slusser broke the news of the deal, and Mike Rodriguez reported the terms.

Soler, who debuted with the Cubs in 2014 and also played for the Royals, Braves, and Marlins, opted out of the third and final year of the deal he signed with Miami, capitalizing on the second-best season of his 11-year career both in terms of health and overall production. Soler ranked 19th on our Top 50 Free Agents list, and his deal is just $1 million per year below the three years and $45 million that both Ben Clemens and MLB Trade Rumors predicted for him. The deal also nets Soler $1 million more than this year than the $13 million he would have made had he stayed with the Marlins.

There’s plenty of risk here. Soler was an All-Star in 2023, the World Series MVP in 2021, and the American League home run champ in 2019. He obliterates four-seam fastballs, and he’s the kind of player who can go on a tear and put a team on his back. He’s also about to turn 32, and he missed half the 2022 season due to back and pelvis injuries. The 1.9 WAR he put up in 2023 was not only the second-best mark of his career, but just the second time he even surpassed 0.7, the total he recorded as a 22-year-old rookie in 2014. Soler has appeared in 100 games only four times in his 11 years in the big leagues. It’s encouraging that three of those four seasons came over the past five years, but players (and humans in general) don’t usually see their health improve as they transition into their mid-30s.

Moreover, Soler doesn’t contribute on the bases or with the glove, and he’s best suited for a DH role. Soler spent just 42 games in the outfield in 2023. That might not sound like much to you, but the defensive metrics agreed that it was way, way too much. Over the course of Soler’s 11 seasons, the four major defensive metrics — DRS, DRP, OAA, and UZR — have been unanimous in their contempt for his glove. Combined, those four systems have evaluated Soler’s defense 42 times (11 seasons tracked by DRS, DRP, and UZR, plus nine by OAA). Of those 42 ratings, 38 were negative, three gave Soler a rating of exactly 0, and just one was positive — when DRP credited Soler with 0.8 runs prevented in 2019.

Despite Soler’s dreadful defense, San Francisco will use him at times in the outfield, likely as a way to spell Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski against left-handed pitching. Under former manager Gabe Kapler, the Giants mixed and matched out of necessity, but also by design; even with a new skipper, Bob Melvin, that trend is likely to continue to some degree considering the personnel on their roster. Over the past three seasons, San Francisco has had just six players qualify for the batting title and eight total qualified player-seasons. (Yastrzemski and Thairo Estrada each have qualified twice in the last three years.) Only three teams have had fewer qualified seasons, and half of the major league clubs have had at least 12 in that span. But no matter how frequently Melvin makes him wear a glove, Soler will slot into the lineup nicely by providing real production from the right side of the plate, something the team sorely lacked last year.

For now, though, let’s set our reservations aside for a minute and admire the stylistic fit. It’s hard to think of a team that needs power more than the San Francisco Giants, and it’s hard to look at Jorge Soler and think of anything other than power. If you peruse other articles about this signing, you’ll come across multiple variations of the word slug. Depending on your outlet of choice, the Giants have variously signed up for three years of “slugger Jorge Soler,” “veteran slugger Jorge Soler,” “Free-Agent Slugger Jorge Soler,” “former Miami Marlins slugger Jorge Soler,” “slugging outfielder Jorge Soler,” and even “slugger and former World Series MVP.” All of these descriptions are apt. He’s not up there to hit Soler flares. Soler slugs.

The Giants could use some of that. Famously, no Giant has had a 30-homer season since a 39-year-old Barry Bonds hit 45 in 2004 (unless you’re counting Jeff Samardzija and Madison Bumgarner, who allowed 30 homers in 2017 and 2019, respectively). In fact, over that same time frame, Soler has the same number of seasons with 27 or more home runs as the Giants do: three. The difference is that only four times has Soler been healthy enough to accrue 400 plate appearances in a season, whereas the Giants have had 109 different player-seasons reach that threshold over the past 24 years.

In 2023, the Giants ranked 19th in home runs, 23rd in ISO and exit velocity, and 27th in slugging. Some of that has to do with Oracle Park, which, according to Statcast’s park factors, ranks as the 27th-worst park for home runs for both left-handed and right-handed batters. But that’s why you go get someone as powerful as Soler (or, for that matter, Arson Judge), who hits moonshots that would be no-doubters anywhere. According to Statcast, if he’d played all of his games in San Francisco last year, Oracle Park would have cost Soler just four of his 36 home runs. Moreover, after spending two years at loanDepot park — one of the three stadiums that make it even harder for righties to leave the yard than Oracle — there’s little chance that he’ll be intimidated and a much better chance that he’ll be the first player to launch a ball into that giant baseball mitt above the left field bleachers. Or maybe Soler, who has hit six opposite-field home runs with an estimated distance of at least 400 feet, will become the first right-handed player to send a ball into McCovey Cove.

Still, Soler alone is not going to solve San Francisco’s problems on offense. According to ZiPS, Soler’s projected SLG of .441 ranks 101st in the majors, and the second Giant doesn’t come until Wilmer Flores checks in at 170th, with a mark of .423. The lack of slug is a problem, of course, but it isn’t as much of an issue as the team’s overall lack of offensive production, and Soler can’t fix that on his own, either.

ZiPS projects newcomer Jung Hoo Lee as San Francisco’s best hitter, with a 112 wRC+, one spot above LaMonte Wade Jr. That ranks them 84th and 85th overall, and they’re the team’s only players in the top 120. The only teams with less representation in the top 120 are the A’s and the Rockies. ZiPS projects a 106 wRC+ for Soler, which is understandable when you consider that before last year, when he posted a 126 wRC+, he had not recorded a single-season mark above 107 since 2019, when his wRC+ was 136. Even if Soler exceeds his projections, San Francisco’s lineup could still use some help, and there aren’t that many bats left out there.

The Oakland-for-now Athletics had themselves a roster shuffle on Friday, bolstering their pitching staff by adding right-hander Ross Stripling and officially announcing the addition of lefty Alex Wood. Wood joined the A’s on a one-year contract worth $8.5 million (with another million’s worth of incentives) after three years with the Giants. Now Stripling, too, is headed east across the bay, in a deal sending minor league outfielder Jonah Cox west to San Francisco (To make room for the pair, Oakland outrighted lefty Francisco Pérez and designated infielder Jonah Bride for assignment).

Wood and Stripling, who might have said something like “It’s not goodbye; it’s see you later” while packing up their lockers after the 2023 season, will be teammates for the fourth separate stint on three different California teams. They spent from 2016 to 2018 together on the Dodgers before Wood was dealt to the Reds, were reunited back in Los Angeles for the start of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season until Stripling was traded to Toronto, and then signed nearly identical two-year, $25 million free agent contracts with San Francisco a year apart from one another. Now, they’ll pair up again in Oakland and figure to factor into a starting rotation that was worth a league-worst combined 1.8 WAR in last season.

Both pitchers were available at a modest cost to the A’s after floundering in their only year together with the Giants. As Kyle Kishimoto wrote last week, Wood struggled to get hitters to swing at bad pitches and to miss whenever they did swing, falling to the 13th percentile in chase percentage and the 17th in whiff percentage. As a result, he struck out a lot fewer hitters and walked a whole bunch more. He also failed to stay healthy, with strains in his left hamstring and lower back sidelining him for the bulk of two months, and by late July, he was relegated to bullpen work as a sort of piggybacker and long relief option. He pitched better in this role, but it was far from what he and the Giants had hoped for when he signed his deal before the 2022 season. Still, Wood brings 10 years of big league service and a not-too-shabby 18.1 career WAR to Oakland, where he’ll try to right the ship. Read the rest of this entry »

The San Francisco Giants have reportedly agreed to a contract with right-handed pitcher Jordan Hicks worth $11 million a year. (Makes sense, Hicks was really good out of the bullpen for St. Louis and Toronto last year, and reliable relief arms are hard to come by in free agency.) The deal will run for four years. (Wow, that’s a long time.) It also contains $2 million a year in workload-based incentives that start at 100 innings per season, because the Giants (hold onto your butts) intend to use Hicks as a starter.

Fascinating! Read the rest of this entry »

The San Francisco Giants drafted Reggie Crawford as a two-way player, and so far they’ve allowed the 30th-overall pick in the 2022 draft to continue to both pitch and swing the bat. How much longer that will be the case remains to be seen, with the forthcoming season likely going a long way toward determining an answer. To this point, Crawford has had scant opportunity to do either. Thanks largely to Tommy John surgery, the 6-foot-4, 235-pound University of Connecticut product has logged just 19 innings and 111 plate appearances (71 of them in the Arizona Fall League) since signing a professional contract.

Eric Longenhagen described the left-left hurler/first-baseman as “a prospect of extreme variance” and “still more a developmental project than anything else” when assigning him a 40+ FV midway through last summer. That both his hitting and pitching potential factor into our lead prospect analyst’s assessment makes Crawford arguably the most intriguing young player in the Giants’ pipeline. If he performs capably on both sides in 2024, he’ll be among the most intriguing young players in baseball.

Crawford discussed his two-way aspirations in the final week of the Arizona Fall League season.

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David Laurila: To start, I’m interested in your thoughts on someone you’ve been playing against here in the Fall League. Carson Williams was highly regarded as a two-way player in high school, but has only played shortstop since Tampa Bay drafted him 28th overall in 2021. Could you see him succeeding at both in pro ball?

Reggie Crawford: “Oh, I’d imagine so. It just comes down to… I mean, for me the planning and the scheduling is probably the most difficult part. Someone who is that athletic and has those sets of tools, I don’t see why he wouldn’t be able to.” Read the rest of this entry »

The Mariners and Rays had a busy Friday last week, combining to make three trades involving seven players. Seattle got things started with a three-player swap with the San Francisco Giants, shipping Robbie Ray to the Bay Area in exchange for Mitch Haniger, Anthony DeSclafani, and cash considerations. Then the M’s and the Rays exchanged José Caballero and Luke Raley, before Tampa Bay finished off the day by sending Andrew Kittredge to St. Louis for Richie Palacios. Both the Mariners and Rays dealt from areas of strength to address areas of need, giving both teams greater roster clarity as the offseason moves towards spring training.

Just two years ago, the three players involved in the first trade of the day would have garnered much bigger headlines. In 2021, Ray, Haniger, and DeSclafani combined to accumulate 9.4 WAR, with Ray winning the American League Cy Young award. In the two seasons since then, however, the trio has combined for just 3.3 WAR, largely thanks to a litany of injuries. Ray was completely healthy in 2022, but he wasn’t able to replicate his award-winning performance in his first season in Seattle and then made just a single start in 2023 before needing Tommy John surgery. Haniger has never been a model of health — he’s played just two full seasons in his seven-year career — and missed time with ankle, back, oblique, and forearm injuries the past two seasons. DeSclafani managed just five starts in 2022 thanks to a recurring ankle injury, then wore down towards the end of last year with shoulder fatigue and forearm inflammation. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2024 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

The fourth and final multi-candidate pairing of this series is by far the heaviest, covering two candidates who have both been connected to multiple incidents of domestic violence. Read the rest of this entry »