In a few hours, the Yankees will hold a press conference here in Orlando to officially welcome Giancarlo Stanton to their organization. They landed the reigning NL MVP just 24 hours after he vetoed trades to the Giants and Cardinals and said New York was one of just four destinations he would approve a trade to. Left with minimal leverage, Derek Jeter and Michael Hill engineered a trade with Jeter’s old club, sending Stanton to the Bronx for Starlin Castro and a couple of low-level prospects.

The reaction to the decision has been almost universally negative. The Marlins’ new ownership group began their tenure by behaving much like the old one, dumping their best player to cut payroll. Instead of hope and change, it looks like more of the same in south Florida.

But while Jeter has made a number of apparent missteps since taking over as the head of the organization, and made some mistakes with the Stanton negotiations specifically, I think it’s also worth pointing out that, on a pure baseball level, the Marlins seemed to come out okay here.

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Today, the Marlins acquired two prospects, RHP Jorge Guzman and SS Jose Devers, as part of the package sent from New York in exchange for Giancarlo Stanton. Below are scouting reports on those prospects as well as thoughts on whom, within New York’s system, might represent a competent stopgap replacement at second base for the spot vacated by Starlin Castro, who was traded to Miami as part of the deal.

Miami’s New Prospects

Houston signed Jorge Guzman in June of 2014, just before the end of the 2013-14 international signing period. He was a bit older than most other IFA signees but still spent his first pro season in the Dominican Summer League. The following year, 2016, he split the season between the Gulf Coast and Appalachian Leagues and began to generate some buzz around baseball as he was seen by a larger number of pro scouts. In November of 2016, he was traded to New York as part of the package for Brian McCann, which also included RHP Albert Abreu. Guzman was seen as a premium arm-strength lottery ticket at the time, sitting 95-97 and touching 102.

In 2017, Guzman went to the New York-Penn League and threw strikes with a 96-102 mph fastball and plus slider. He struck out 88 hitters in 66 innings. His changeup is still raw, and scouts don’t like his stiff, hunched posture during his delivery, but he throws strikes and has a chance to start. He could have an 80 fastball and 70 slider at peak, which alone could make him an elite reliever. If Marlins player development can improve his changeup, or develop a different third pitch, his ceiling as a rotation piece is quite high. He enters his age-22 season in 2018.

Jose Devers is a shortstop who hit .245/.336/.342 as a 17-year-old in the GCL this year. He has an immature but projectable 6-foot frame, and his physical composition is such that scouts think he’ll fill out and add strength as he matures. He has precocious feel for hitting but currently lacks the physicality and swing plane to do any real damage with the bat. Devers’ actions and arm strength are such that scouts think he has a chance to be an above-average defensive shortstop, so he doesn’t necessarily have to develop an impact bat to profile as a big leaguer. There’s a perfect-world outcome in which Devers’ frame develops in that Goldilocks zone that affords him the physicality necessary to punish the baseball even as he retains the agility to stay at shortstop, though it sounds like a swing tweak might also be necessary for such an outcome.

I have a 50 FV on Guzman, which means he’ll garner heavy consideration for this offseason’s top 100, and a pretty aggressive 40 on Devers based largely on his frame, athleticism, and natural feel to hit. Where does that rank on our yet-to-be-released Marlins list? Well, 2016 first-rounder Braxton Garrett — low-to-mid 90s, above-average curveball, above-average changeup, chance for plus command — would be soundly ahead of Guzman if he hadn’t required Tommy John in June. Brian Anderson and the newly acquired Nick Neidert are both relatively polished prospects who I think can be average big-league regulars, but neither of them can touch what Guzman’s ceiling looks like if he develops a good third pitch.

Trevor Rogers, Miami’s 2017 first-rounder, is a huge 6-foot-6 lefty with a mid-90s fastball, but his breaking ball and strike-throwing are behind Guzman’s right now, and Rogers is already20 years old despite having been a 2017 high-school draftee. I think TJ recovery rates are such that I’d still rather have Garrett if given the choice between all of these guys, but there’s an argument to be made for Guzman as the No. 1 guy in this system. He’ll likely rank somewhere in the back third of our top 100.

The Yankees’ Internal Options at the Keystone

The Yankees can patch the hole created by Castro’s departure with some combination of Tyler Wade and Thairo Estrada. Wade failed to do much in a meaninglessly small big-league sample, but his scouting report remains the same as it did a year ago. He’s a plus runner with an all-fields approach to contact and sound ball/strike recognition. He lacks the power to profile as an everyday player anywhere other than shortstop (where Wade’s glove would be average). With superior talents at short in the upper levels of the organization, the Yankees began moving Wade around the diamond during the last few seasons. He began seeing work all over the outfield during the 2016 Arizona Fall League and got reps at six positions in 2017, including first-time action at third base.

Estrada is also a capable defensive shortstop who could be plus at second base. He, too, has doubles power, insufficient for everyday reps at second base, but he grinds out tough at-bats and played well enough in the heavily scouted 2017 Arizona Fall League that he likely would have been a Rule 5 pick had New York not added him to the 40-man roster this offseason. Both project as quality utility guys, with Wade offering more versatility and Estrada offering better defense at short, but they’ll be fine at second base in a pinch until Gleyber Torres is ready.

The Yankees have acquired reigning National League MVP Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins in exchange for Starlin Castro plus prospects Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers. A possible $30 million in cash would also be included in the event Stanton chooses not to opt out of his mega-contract following the 2020 season.

Below are the KATOH projections for the prospects received by Miami. WAR figures account for each player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings. In total, my KATOH system projects these prospects for a combined 5.9 WAR (5.2 by KATOH+) over their first six years in the majors.

*****

Jorge Guzman, RHP (Profile)
KATOH: 3.3 WAR
KATOH+: 3.2 WAR

Acquired from the Astros last winter in the Brian McCann trade, Guzman dominated the New York-Penn League in 2017. He struck out a league-leading 33% of opposing batters this past season and walked just 7%. The end result was a 2.30 ERA across 13 starts. At 21 years old, Guzman wasn’t particularly young for short-season ball — especially for an international signee — but his performance was off the charts. As a result, KATOH has him as a top-150 prospect. Guzman is obviously several levels away from the majors, but there is a lot to like.

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After Giancarlo Stanton rejected deals to the Cardinals and Giants, the Yankees sensed opportunity and have reportedly reached an agreement to acquire the NL MVP. While the Shohei Ohtani decision Friday was the most anticipated news item of the offseason, this is a stunning and fascinating development.

sources: yankees and marlins have a deal for giancarlo stanton

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 9, 2017

Source: Giancarlo Stanton trade agreement is in place between #Yankees and #Marlins, but deal is still pending Stanton’s consent and Yankees approval of physical. @MLBNetwork @MLB

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 9, 2017

The stove is piping hot.

Already in possession of the only player to rival and exceed Stanton’s power and frame in Aaron Judge, the Yankees now have each of the game’s Statcast Gods — if Stanton approves the deal. Complete details are not known regarding the return for the Marlins. Read the rest of this entry »

Well, this is something.

#Yankees in play for Stanton, sources tell The Athletic.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 9, 2017

Sources: Yankees making progress on a trade for Giancarlo Stanton. One source cautioned nothing done. Another was confident it’s moving toward that. Either way, momentum for Stanton to Yankees is significant.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 9, 2017

#Yankees are indeed making a move to try to land Stanton. Deal coming into focus

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 9, 2017

After Stanton vetoed the Giants and Cardinals, and reportedly listed just four teams he’d accept trades to, the Yankees are turning into opportunists. Pretty clearly, they weren’t interested at the price SF/STL were willing to pay, but with those teams out of the running, it’s pretty easy to imagine Brian Cashman calling his former shortstop with an offer that is totally just helping out a former friend and not at all taking advantage of an executive who might be in over his head.

The Yankees already have an overcrowded outfield, with Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, and Aaron Judge as the penciled in starters, Jacoby Ellsbury a pretty decent (if overpaid) fourth OF, and Clint Frazier hanging around in case anyone gets hurt. While Ellsbury could be included in the deal as a salary offset, the Marlins were reportedly looking to avoid taking on money in the pre opt-out years, hoping that any financial commitment remaining on their books would be wiped out if Stanton did indeed exercise his option after the 2020 season.

And even if the team added Stanton, Ellsbury still has his usefulness as insurance for Hicks in center, so perhaps Brett Gardner and his easily movable $11M 2018 salary (with a cheap $12.5 million 2019 option) is more likely to be going back to Miami, since the Marlins wouldn’t have a hard time then flipping Gardner elsewhere in a separate move.

If the Yankees acquired Stanton, Frazier would also become somewhat redundant, so perhaps the Yankees would send back a pair of outfielders, consolidating their depth into a better starting left fielder. Of course, the primary downside of this plan would be that — barring a decision to totally punt CF defense — acquiring Stanton makes signing Bryce Harper less likely next year, and many have long speculated that Harper is going to end up in pinstripes. But if the Marlins are legitimately desperate and the Yankees can get Stanton for something in the low $200M range without parting with a ton of young talent, they’d very likely be better off making a deal now rather than trying to win the bidding for Harper next year.

It’s been a nutty 24 hours. It doesn’t sound like things are slowing down any time soon.

Update.

Best of luck, AL East lefties.

The Marlins struck two deals to trade Giancarlo Stanton and most of his remaining contract, one with the St. Louis Cardinals, and the other with the San Francisco Giants. Earlier today, the Cardinals announced that they were out of the running, and now, the Giants have made the same concession.

#SFGiants also announce they are out on Stanton.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 8, 2017

Stanton and his representatives likely imagined this exact scenario when they signed a long-term deal with Jeffrey Loria, knowing that the day would come when the Marlins decided that they only really wanted those first few cheap years, not the expensive ones at the end of the deal. Getting a full no-trade clause gives Stanton the ability to decide exactly where he wants to play, and apparently, it isn’t San Francisco either.

While there are some attractive things about the franchise, it’s not an entirely surprising decision. AT&T Park is one of the worst places to hit in all of baseball, and if Stanton is planning on opting out in three years, he probably stands a better chance of getting another raise if he doesn’t have to remind every other team about park effects as the primary part of his pitch. The Giants also were atrocious last year, and even with Stanton, would have been a fringe Wild Card contender, well behind the Dodgers in the NL West pecking order.

Plus, growing up in LA, I’m guessing he didn’t have the fondest feelings about the Giants as a kid. So when the arch rival of the team you grew up rooting for wants to trade for you, coming off a season where they posted the second-worst record in baseball, it’s probably not that appealing of an offer. And since Stanton has every right to dictate where he’s traded, there’s no real reason for him to settle for an option he doesn’t prefer, since he doesn’t have to.

For the Marlins, this is nothing short of a disaster. The teams that Stanton has reportedly indicated he will accept a trade to — the Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, and Cubs — can all win without him, and all of them are probably eying Bryce Harper as a potential free agent target next winter. To take themselves out of the Harper bidding at this point, they’re going to have to get Stanton at a significant discount. There’s no sense of urgency from any of those clubs.

At this point, the Marlins may very well be best served just waiting until next year, then marketing Stanton as the cheaper alternative to the teams that don’t get Harper. Trying to force a trade now, when they have almost no leverage, is how a franchise makes a disastrous decision. If the Dodgers want to get into a bidding war, the Marlins should obviously consider it, but they’re now in dangerous territory, and could end up making a colossal mistake if they refuse to see any other options besides trading Stanton this winter.

At long last, the hot stove appears to be heating up. In something of a surprise move, the Mariners have swung a trade with the Marlins to acquire both (a) Dee Gordon, who will apparently play center field for Seattle, and (b) $1 million in international slot money. In exchange, the Marlins receive three lower-tier prospects: righties Robert Dugger and Nick Neidert, plus infielder Chris Torres.

Below are the KATOH projections for the players received by Miami. WAR figures account for each player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings. In total, my KATOH system (both stats-only and KATOH+) projects this trio for 3.6 WAR over their first six years in the majors.

*****

Nick Neidert, RHP (Profile)

KATOH: 2.2 WAR
KATOH+: 2.7 WAR

Seattle took Neidert in the second round out of high school back in 2015, and he promptly began mowing down low-minors hitters. Neidert opened 2017 as a 20-year-old in High-A, where he pitched excellently — his strikeout rate, walk rate, ERA, and xFIP were all top-five in the Cal League among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched. Neidert’s performance cratered following a late-season promotion to Double-A, but his body of work is impressive. He rarely walks anyone and has shown an ability to miss bats against much older competition.

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Shohei Ohtani. Giancarlo Stanton. Something about Shohei Ohtani, and something about Giancarlo Stanton. Given the nature of the rumor mill these past few weeks, it would’ve been easy to forget that teams have other needs. Take the Mariners, for example. The Mariners badly need a good starting pitcher. That could be Ohtani. They’re right in there, among the seven finalists. But the Mariners have also needed a center fielder. Finding a center fielder is less interesting than trying to land Ohtani, sure, but it doesn’t mean it could just be ignored. Not everything has to do with Ohtani, or Stanton. And so on Thursday, the Mariners have made a trade with the Marlins. A trade to address the other need. A creative one!

Mariners get:

• Dee Gordon
• $1 million in international slot money

Marlins get:

• Nick Neidert
• Chris Torres
• Robert Dugger

The Mariners’ roster lacked a center fielder. Dee Gordon isn’t a center fielder. He’s a second baseman. The Mariners will ask him to convert, so I guess that means he is a center fielder, at least by label. The Mariners are taking the chance that Gordon can pull this position switch off. From the Marlins’ side, does this need to be explained? Gordon turns 30 next April. He’s due at least $38 million over the next three years, and that could turn into $51 million over four. The Marlins wanted out. They’re all about cutting costs right now, so this is a normal trade for prospects. If, that is, you believe the Mariners had prospects to give. It’s debatable.

Oh, and there’s slot money, too. Turns out this is connected to Ohtani after all. He just can’t be escaped.

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The hot stove is warming up, and as always, Jerry Dipoto is the one stoking the fire.

Source: #Mariners acquire Dee Gordon from #Marlins.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 7, 2017

Now, you might say, don’t the Mariners already have the most expensive second baseman in baseball? Why yes, yes they do. So why are they trading for Dee Gordon? Because they’re not acquiring him to play second base.

Dee Gordon will play CF for the #Mariners according to club source

— Jim Bowden??? (@JimBowdenGM) December 7, 2017

The Mariners have put a heavy emphasis on athleticism in the outfield under Dipoto’s regime, and with Jarrod Dyson now a free agent, the team is apparently betting on Gordon’s speed translating into similar results in the outfield. And there’s no question that Gordon is one of the very fastest players in the game.

By sprint speed, he’s nearly equal to Byron Buxton and Billy Hamilton, maybe the two best defensive outfielders alive. Of course, it has to be noted that he’s also right next to Delino Deshields, another exceptionally fast former second baseman who moved to the outfield, but has split his time between LF and CF because he hasn’t impressed enough to be handed a regular job in CF. Speed obviously matters, but it is not, in and of itself, determinative of outfield ability.

That said, Gordon was a very poor defensive SS early in his career and worked to make himself into a strong defensive second baseman, so he’s already learned a new position and made himself more valuable once. If Gordon can do it again, turning his raw speed into upper-tier range in center field again, then he could be a nice player for the Mariners.

Gordon isn’t a great hitter, but his baserunning is so valuable than he’s been an above-average offensive player throughout his career, and he’s at +26 runs of offense over the last four years, since his 2014 breakout in LA. If you pair an above-average offensive player with potentially above-average center field defense, that’s an impact player, which is obviously what the Mariners are hoping for.

In order to bring Gordon to Seattle, they took on the rest of the $38 million he’s owed and surrendered one of the few good pieces they had left in their farm system.

Nick Neidert is a good prospect. Saw him at 87-91 this year. Plus changeup, plus command. Fastball's movement, Neidert's 3/4s slot, and his cross-body delivery allow it – and his breaking ball – to play up against RHH. Think's he's a weird, reverse splits, #4 starter. A 50.

— Eric Longenhagen (@longenhagen) December 7, 2017

Nick Neidert was one of the team’s best arms, even without a super high ceiling, while Chris Torres and Robert Dugger are low-level lottery tickets who aren’t without value. This wasn’t a straight salary dump for the Marlins, who got three guys worth watching in return.

But along with Gordon, the Mariners also get another $1 million in international bonus money, which is obviously being acquired to try and get Shohei Otani to sign with the Mariners. They gave up another prospect last night to acquire $1 million from the Twins, so the plan is pretty clearly to surrender whatever necessary to give the organization the best chance possible to win the Ohtani derby.

And given how valuable he is, any marginal improvement in that sweepstakes is probably worth surrendering decent-but-unspectacular prospects. Ohtani is probably worth some team’s entire farm systems by himself. He’ll instantly become one of the most valuable resources in whatever organization he joins. If this deal helps the Mariners land Ohtani, the price paid becomes inconsequential.

And if Gordon turns into a good defensive CF, then this could very well be a nice move on its own merits. So there’s clearly upside here for Seattle.

But there’s plenty of downside too. Ohtani might go elsewhere. Gordon might end up not taking well to the OF, and then the team would have an expensive corner outfielder with a light bat, or a second baseman who pushes Robinson Cano to first base, both options limiting their offense. And the farm system continues to be strip-mined for short-term gains, so if the Mariners don’t win, all this borrowing from the future won’t look so good in a few years.

It’s not entirely correct to say that the Mariners are “Ohtani or bust” at this point, but they really need him. And if they get him, they won’t care that they don’t have a farm system anymore.

In the next few days, it’s expected that Giancarlo Stanton will decide whether he’s going to waive his no-trade clause to join the San Francisco Giants or, less likely, the St. Louis Cardinals. Those are the two teams that have struck deals with the Marlins, and both made their pitch to him in person last week. Stanton has appeared to be holding out hope that the Dodgers would get into the mix, though to this point, no public reports have suggested they’ve seriously engaged the Marlins in discussions.

The Dodgers’ reticence likely has to do with their CBT tax position. Acquiring Stanton would put them over the tax threshold again, and, as I laid out in my argument for why the Dodgers should be interested, acquiring Stanton would probably force the team to choose between re-signing Clayton Kershaw or making a big run at Bryce Harper in free agency next winter. And according to Ken Rosenthal, the Marlins aren’t interested in taking back any current payroll in a Stanton deal, as they try to trim their 2018 player expenses to under $90 million.

But despite the Marlins’ apparent tunnel vision here, there still might be a way for both sides to get what they’re looking for, and it’s one of Friedman’s go-to moves: the three-way trade.

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