Archive for Nationals

The Nationals Will Be There With Josh Bell On

Allan Henry-Imagn Images

Since the last time Josh Bell suited up for the Nationals on August 1, 2022, he has played for four different teams. The Nationals dealt him to the Padres alongside Juan Soto at the 2022 trade deadline. Then he became a free agent and signed a two-year, $33 million deal with the Guardians, only for Cleveland to flip him to the Marlins the following summer. He swam with the Fish for just under a year before it was Miami’s turn to cast him off at the deadline in 2024. Finally, after finishing out this past season with the Diamondbacks, Bell is returning to Washington on a one-year, $6 million contract. That closes the circle on a two-and-a-half-year expedition that took him from the East Coast to the West Coast to the Midwest to the wetlands to the desert and back to the nation’s capital. According to Google Maps, it would take you just over 166 days to walk that journey. Bell, not exactly known for his footspeed, did it in 881.

With the Gold Glover Nathaniel Lowe likely to see most of the playing time at first base, Bell should slot in as Washington’s everyday designated hitter. Bell has primarily played first throughout his career, but his defense has always been lacking, even by the standards of the position. He has never finished a season with a positive DRS, and only once has he finished with a positive OAA or FRV. In 2024, Bell ranked last among all first basemen in DRS and second to last in OAA and FRV, despite playing just 98 games at the position. As long as Lowe stays healthy, which he’s largely managed to do throughout his career, the Nationals won’t need to worry about Bell’s glove at first. Meanwhile, Bell won’t need to worry about the harsh positional adjustment for designated hitters dragging down his overall numbers. A full-time DH who plays all 162 games would finish with -17.5 Def; Bell finished with -17.8 Def in 2024. As long as he sticks at DH, things can’t get any worse.

Of course, that also means Bell’s defensive value won’t get any better. If he’s going to improve upon a replacement-level (-0.1 WAR) 2024 season, he’ll need to do it with his offense. More specifically, he’ll need to do it with his bat. Over the past four years, Bell has been the least productive baserunner in the sport, with -17.6 BsR. His best baserunning season in that span was 2021, when he finished with -3.9 BsR, eighth-worst in the majors. To put that in context, -3.9 BsR is so low that Steamer doesn’t project anyone to finish with -3.9 BsR in 2025. Heck, Steamer doesn’t have anyone else finishing below -2.9, while Bell is projected for -2.3. Bell’s baseline is such an aberration that Steamer refuses to accept it as his (or anyone’s) 50th-percentile outcome. Read the rest of this entry »


Welcome to the Minor Pitcher Deal Bonanza

Jonathan Dyer, Troy Taormina, Robert Edwards-Imagn Image

It’s been dark here at FanGraphs for a few days, so admit it — you’re desperate to read anything right now. How about a roundup of analysis on three pitchers that went off the market right before our holiday hiatus?

Griffin Canning, Michael Soroka, and Patrick Sandoval all fit somewhere between the back of their new team’s rotation or the front of its starter depth; each received deals commensurate with those expectations. If the going rate for a fourth starter these days is something like $15 million AAV (Alex Cobb got one year and $15 million, Matthew Boyd got two years and $29 million), this trio is probably one tier below that.

Do these three signings, grouped together, mean anything in particular? Probably not. Each year, the starter/reliever binary grows blurrier, and perhaps someday, every pitcher will throw exactly three innings and the distinction will disappear completely. Perhaps each of these signings brings us closer to that day; Soroka, in particular, seems best served to go through a lineup once and then head out on his way. For various reasons, the expectation for all of these pitchers should be somewhere in the 80- to 120-inning range for the 2025 season. But for now, no further trends will be drawn. Without further ado, here is the lowdown on the three hurlers.

Griffin Canning

Canning drew some attention on the pitching nerd internet earlier this year due to the remarkably unremarkable shape of his fastball. The image below is courtesy of Max Bay’s dynamic dead zone app:

Because Canning throws his fastball from a roughly league-average arm angle (45°), a league-average release height (5.8 feet), and with league-average ride (16.2 inches of induced vertical break), the pitch — in theory! — moves on a trajectory that hitters expect. (I say “in theory” because, as Remi Bunikiewicz pointed out, Canning does a great job hiding his fastball during the windup, complicating any perceptive analysis.)

This fastball was the bane of Canning’s existence in 2024. He did qualify for the ERA title, something only 57 other pitchers could claim they did, but his 5.26 FIP was worst among those qualified starters, and his strikeout rate was third worst. That strikeout rate dropped nearly eight percentage points from 2023 to 2024, and the performance against his fastball explained essentially all of that drop. The whiff rate on Canning’s three other primary pitches stayed virtually the same; on the fastball, the percentage of swings that resulted in misses went from 28% in 2023 to just 14% in 2024.

A drop in velocity appears to be the main culprit for the decline in performance. The four-seamer averaged 94.7 mph in 2023; that dipped to 93.4 mph in 2024. Could a 1.5-mph difference in velocity be the entire explanation? I’m inclined to think that the answer is mostly yes. But it’s also possible that the decline in slider quality impacted batter performance against his fastball. Canning’s death ball slider dropped three fewer inches relative to 2023, reducing the separation between his fastball and his primary out pitch against right-handed hitters.

Could a reduced role help Canning return to his prior form? These considerations could be part of the plan. The Mets employ something like eight starters; Canning sits outside the favored five. Assuming perfect health, it’s likely that they will deploy him in two- or three-inning bursts, perhaps allowing him to get back to that mid-90s velocity on the heater. Even in a swingman role, the $4.25 million contract makes good sense — with fewer workload responsibilities, it doesn’t feel unreasonable to expect Canning to deliver something like a 4.00 ERA over 100ish innings. And if injuries do strike the rotation, he can stretch out to a starter’s workload. Either way, there’s a role to play in this era where quality innings can be difficult to come by, especially in the late summer months.

Michael Soroka

Soroka exploded after a midseason move to the White Sox bullpen. As a reliever, Soroka struck out 39% of the hitters he faced, which would’ve ranked second in all of baseball.

Curiously, this wasn’t a case of Soroka ramping up the stuff over 15-pitch spurts. Unlike those pitchers topping the strikeout leaderboards — Mason Miller, Edwin Díaz, Josh Hader — Soroka did it mostly in chunky multi-inning appearances. Soroka pitched 36 innings out of the bullpen; all but 5 2/3 of them came in appearances that spanned two innings or more. In those slightly shorter appearances — he averaged nearly five innings per appearance as a starter and 2 1/3 as a reliever — the strikeout rate somehow tripled.

After moving full-time to relief work, Soroka added 1.5 mph to his four-seam fastball. But the four-seamer isn’t anything special; instead, at 94 mph with dead zone-ish movement, it’s mostly there to set up the slider, which generated nearly a 42% whiff rate.

What’s so special about the slider? It isn’t the velocity — it averages just 82.2 mph, well below the average for major league sliders. But its shape is distinct. There are slower curveballs that resemble the movement profile, but outside of Bryan Abreu, nobody really throws a slider with the combination of depth and sweep that Soroka manages to get. Starting May 18, when Soroka shifted to a bullpen role, the slider averaged -4.5 inches of induced vertical break with 5.2 inches of sweep, moving sharply on two planes.

But averages obscure the full truth. Soroka can also manipulate the pitch to move in a variety of break patterns. Look at the range of movement profiles on his slider, seen in yellow on his pitch plot below:

Soroka can firm it up, throwing it more like a gyro slider at 84 mph with zero inches of induced vertical break:

But he can also bend it like a curveball, dropping over 10 inches more than his firmest sliders:

(Look at poor Spencer Torkelson there — I think he was expecting the gyro.)

Between the identical frequency of the fastball and slider, the distinct two-plane movement profile, and the diversity of potential shapes, Soroka had batters swinging and missing more than almost any pitcher in baseball.

Evidently, the Nationals, who gave Soroka $9 million on a one-year deal, plan to use him as a “starter.” Given his usage patterns as a reliever, I’m not exactly sure what that means. I would expect that the Nationals will tell Soroka to let it loose for 60 or so pitches, just as he did in Chicago, and he’ll take on 12 or 13 hitters in a game. Like Canning, I think Soroka will end up closer to 90 innings than 180, letting his best stuff cook in outings that sit somewhere between a one-inning shutdown reliever and a starter trying to turn the lineup over three times.

Patrick Sandoval

Sandoval, who signed a two-year, $18.25 million deal with the Red Sox, is a perfect fit for their “no fastballs” organizational philosophy. This guy hates four-seamers now — they made up just 16% of his pitches in his injury-shortened 2024 campaign, by far a career low. Regardless of batter handedness, Sandoval mixes in all six of his pitches, but he works them in differently depending on whether he’s facing a righty or lefty. A plurality of his pitches to righties were changeups; to lefties, Sandoval spammed his slider and sweeper over half the time.

As one would expect with a pitcher who throws all that junk, Sandoval struggles to get the ball in the strike zone. He ran a 10% walk rate last year; even in his excellent 2022 campaign, in which he racked up 3.7 WAR, his walk rate was above 9%. The walks are just part of the package with Sandoval, but the hope is that at his best, he can pitch around them, striking out enough hitters and staying off enough barrels with his diverse pitch mix and refusal to throw anything straight.

Sandoval is likely to pitch the fewest innings of this trio in 2025. He tore his UCL and was shut down in mid-June before undergoing Tommy John surgery, so he’ll miss a big chunk of the upcoming season. When he returns, it figures that he will assume a traditional starter’s workload, though following the Walker Buehler signing, Boston’s rotation looks pretty packed. Ultimately, this deal is mostly a 2026 play, with some nice depth for the end of next year as a bonus.

Conclusion

None of these guys is too exciting. All of them have stanky fastballs. But each has a reason to believe that he might contribute surplus value on a modest deal. In the end, that’s what a minor pitcher signing is all about.


2025 ZiPS Projections: Washington Nationals

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Washington Nationals.

Batters

While Washington had a below-average offense in 2024, many of the spots in the lineup are coming on nicely, though not enough yet for ZiPS to believe in a huge run-scoring turnaround. James Wood and Dylan Crews are young and project to be three-win players right now, and CJ Abrams is right there, too. With Abrams, the oldest, still just 24, that’s a trio to build around, and ZiPS sees them all as having significant superstar potential, especially the first two. Luis García Jr. is projected to regress a bit from 2024, but he still should be a solidly above-average player overall. If Andrés Chaparro can play third base, ZiPS likes him well enough, but it doesn’t think he’ll truly provide enough offense to be valuable at first base or designated hitter. The scouting consensus is generally more negative than ZiPS here, which is based on ball location data from the minors.

After these five, things get less exciting quickly. Probably the most interesting in 2025 is Jacob Young. ZiPS is conservative on Young given the volatile nature of defensive statistics, and it was less impressed by him in the minors, but if he’s as good defensively as he was this year, his WAR projection would get comfortably over two wins as well.

Former top prospect Keibert Ruiz’s projection has gone in a negative direction. Last year was a disappointment, and while some of that was undoubtedly due to his losing 20 pounds from influenza in the spring, his struggles were more extreme versions of what went wrong for him in 2022 and 2023. Ruiz is a good contact hitter, but he’s developing in the mold of David Fletcher, a hitter whose contact skills are too competent for his own good. Ruiz swings at a lot of crappy pitches — pitches that nobody should swing at because they are difficult to drive — and puts them in play. Maybe if he were an ultra-speedy type with a low launch angle who could leg out a bunch of junky grounders, that would be fine, but he just dishes out a stew of weak grounders, popups, and flies, leading to a lot of uncompetitive at-bats. He should be healthier this season, so he should add a few mph of exit velocity to his balls in play, but unless his plate discipline improves, his ceiling is going to be limited.

Another concern is that with Wood and Crews now in the majors, ZiPS doesn’t believe the Nationals have any strong hitters coming up next to buttress them. ZiPS thinks little of Brady House – and Steamer likes his bat even less – and doesn’t think Juan Yepez is an impressive short-term solution at first. Except for catcher Drew Millas, every Nationals batter projected to have five or more WAR over the next five seasons is likely to make the Opening Day roster, and Millas’ projection is simply that of a low-upside backup. If the Nats don’t develop hitters, they’re going to have to spend more aggressively to fill the team’s depth in the lineup.

Pitchers

MacKenzie Gore is fine, but ZiPS has a general ambivalence about the rest of the rotation. DJ Herz is the most interesting of the pack. He misses a ton of bats, and his results from his limited time in the majors are promising, but ZiPS is still on the fence about whether he’s really shed some of his walks from the minors. He has some of the darkest downside scenarios of the staff but also the second-best upside after Gore, and a rebuilding team ought to be interested in riskier pitchers. The computer sees Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker as competent inning-eaters rather than pitchers with big upsides. Cade Cavalli is risky, and once you get past him, ZiPS is decidedly lukewarm everywhere.

ZiPS may be ambivalent about the rotation, but when it comes to the bullpen, it’s far more opinionated, in a bad way. The Nationals are no strangers to having terrible bullpens – they won a World Series with at most three relievers they could trust – and for rebuilding teams, the bullpen tends to be the last thing to come together. ZiPS thinks Derek Law and Robert Garcia are good parts of a competent pen, but the rest of Washington’s relievers are expected to be below replacement level. None of the names even project particularly well, which suggests to me that unless the computer is quite wrong, the team’s next good relief pitchers likely are not currently in the organization, and if they are, they’ll probably be failed starters who convert to the bullpen.

For the first half of 2024, the Nationals stayed on the edge of the exurbs of the NL Wild Card race, close enough to .500 to believe that maybe they could push for a playoff spot if everything broke right for them. However, their 32-47 record from July onward ended that whimsy, and their 71-91 record was a fair representation of where they stood. Short of some major changes, Washington is likely to make some progress and finish with a win total in the mid-to-high 70s. That’d would be a step forward, but it wouldn’t be enough to return to the postseason.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
James Wood L 22 LF 590 518 81 137 29 5 20 76 67 160 18 6
Dylan Crews R 23 CF 559 505 66 124 25 5 14 66 38 124 26 7
CJ Abrams L 24 SS 597 543 82 137 29 4 18 70 35 117 31 8
Luis García Jr. L 25 2B 556 520 65 140 26 3 16 69 31 88 14 4
Andrés Chaparro R 26 3B 554 502 63 121 27 1 18 69 42 119 3 1
José Tena L 24 SS 580 538 64 138 26 3 13 65 32 158 12 6
Alex Call R 30 RF 429 368 52 83 17 1 11 45 50 82 11 4
Jacob Young R 25 CF 548 492 72 121 20 3 3 45 34 100 30 7
Drew Millas B 27 C 335 304 33 74 13 2 6 35 27 63 8 1
Keibert Ruiz B 26 C 487 455 47 112 23 0 15 57 24 53 3 1
Jack Dunn R 28 SS 428 368 48 81 12 1 5 39 46 82 11 4
Jake Alu L 28 2B 434 396 47 99 23 1 7 45 29 78 9 2
Joey Gallo L 31 1B 379 319 45 57 10 1 19 43 55 142 3 1
Phillip Glasser L 25 2B 459 411 57 104 19 1 6 46 35 80 10 4
Brady House R 22 3B 532 498 61 116 21 2 15 65 24 149 4 2
Ildemaro Vargas B 33 3B 350 321 33 77 17 1 3 32 21 38 6 2
Travis Blankenhorn L 28 RF 453 410 50 90 21 1 18 60 33 126 2 2
Darren Baker L 26 2B 483 445 53 115 17 2 1 37 31 94 19 4
Jackson Cluff L 28 SS 350 304 39 59 13 2 6 34 32 110 11 2
Stone Garrett R 29 LF 374 339 42 78 16 1 10 44 27 115 5 2
Erick Mejia B 30 3B 341 308 38 66 12 2 7 32 27 74 10 3
Juan Yepez R 27 1B 519 472 55 118 24 1 18 62 39 98 2 2
Matt Suggs R 25 C 180 164 19 29 6 1 4 19 11 74 2 0
Nasim Nuñez B 24 SS 491 427 58 90 11 1 2 31 53 112 30 8
Yohandy Morales R 23 1B 298 271 29 68 14 2 4 30 22 75 3 2
Trey Lipscomb R 25 3B 485 454 48 109 19 1 6 43 26 97 13 5
Cayden Wallace R 23 3B 389 359 41 80 16 2 6 38 23 88 5 4
Riley Adams R 29 C 289 256 26 56 14 1 8 34 23 83 1 0
Daylen Lile L 22 LF 557 506 60 117 24 8 7 55 38 119 12 4
Maxwell Romero Jr. L 24 C 303 275 21 50 11 1 7 31 21 116 0 0
Andrew Pinckney R 24 CF 541 496 62 117 20 4 7 53 31 167 16 7
Kevin Made R 22 SS 404 362 35 70 17 1 2 30 30 109 5 2
C.J. Stubbs R 28 C 322 286 35 51 11 1 8 33 25 137 4 2
Robert Hassell III L 23 CF 470 427 48 94 15 2 6 40 36 124 10 3
Brady Lindsly L 27 C 250 224 19 45 8 0 3 21 17 77 1 0
J.T. Arruda B 27 2B 419 373 38 76 15 3 3 32 36 109 8 2
Murphy Stehly R 26 3B 294 267 26 59 11 1 2 29 14 84 3 2
Cortland Lawson R 25 SS 379 347 38 75 13 2 1 28 22 109 6 3
Geraldi Diaz L 24 C 194 173 17 30 7 1 3 17 15 61 1 0
Israel Pineda R 25 C 304 288 21 52 9 0 5 24 14 92 1 0
Onix Vega R 26 C 245 217 21 45 7 0 2 19 22 51 2 0
Elijah Nunez L 23 CF 140 121 17 21 2 0 1 6 17 37 8 2
Cody Wilson R 28 CF 261 233 24 40 8 1 2 19 16 108 9 2
Jordy Barley R 25 SS 265 242 27 45 7 1 3 19 19 100 13 4
Will Frizzell L 26 DH 269 239 24 49 9 0 4 23 25 95 1 0
Dérmis Garcia R 27 1B 398 361 38 69 13 1 13 46 32 143 2 1
Viandel Pena B 24 2B 395 358 40 75 13 3 1 27 29 111 10 3
Gavin Dugas R 25 2B 352 311 40 58 13 0 4 39 19 122 6 2
Paul Witt R 27 3B 252 234 22 44 12 0 6 26 12 65 0 0
Sammy Infante R 24 3B 325 297 32 56 12 1 5 31 21 111 7 3
Roismar Quintana R 22 DH 343 312 30 67 10 2 4 29 25 99 2 1
Johnathon Thomas R 25 CF 322 285 31 52 8 2 1 26 14 116 18 6
John McHenry B 24 LF 209 181 19 30 5 0 3 17 17 74 4 2
Jeremy De La Rosa L 23 RF 437 407 44 82 19 3 10 44 26 154 10 7
Branden Boissiere L 25 1B 323 293 27 58 10 1 4 26 23 94 0 0
Jared McKenzie L 24 RF 392 364 35 76 15 1 5 37 15 129 7 4
Marcus Brown L 23 SS 404 377 43 68 15 2 3 32 16 90 3 1
Trey Harris R 29 DH 342 320 24 65 12 1 2 27 15 84 2 3
T.J. White B 21 DH 421 386 33 67 11 1 11 39 31 159 2 0
Armando Cruz R 21 SS 401 369 34 70 9 1 2 26 14 72 8 4

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA 3YOPS+ RC
James Wood 590 .265 .351 .456 127 .191 .347 1 3.2 .349 129 89
Dylan Crews 559 .245 .309 .398 99 .152 .300 6 2.7 .309 102 70
CJ Abrams 597 .252 .313 .420 106 .168 .292 -5 2.6 .317 109 81
Luis García Jr. 556 .269 .308 .423 105 .154 .298 0 2.3 .314 105 72
Andrés Chaparro 554 .241 .307 .406 101 .165 .282 3 2.1 .310 103 63
José Tena 580 .256 .302 .388 94 .132 .340 -2 1.7 .301 96 68
Alex Call 429 .226 .327 .367 97 .141 .262 8 1.6 .310 94 48
Jacob Young 548 .246 .308 .317 79 .071 .303 4 1.3 .280 80 57
Drew Millas 335 .243 .308 .358 89 .115 .289 2 1.3 .293 90 36
Keibert Ruiz 487 .246 .290 .396 92 .149 .251 -6 1.1 .297 91 53
Jack Dunn 428 .220 .315 .299 76 .079 .270 3 1.1 .279 78 38
Jake Alu 434 .250 .303 .366 89 .116 .296 0 1.0 .293 88 47
Joey Gallo 379 .179 .306 .395 97 .216 .240 5 1.0 .309 92 39
Phillip Glasser 459 .253 .321 .348 90 .095 .301 -2 0.9 .297 89 49
Brady House 532 .233 .278 .374 83 .141 .303 3 0.9 .284 89 53
Ildemaro Vargas 350 .240 .289 .328 75 .087 .265 7 0.8 .272 73 32
Travis Blankenhorn 453 .219 .288 .407 95 .188 .271 3 0.8 .302 94 49
Darren Baker 483 .258 .306 .312 77 .054 .326 2 0.7 .275 76 48
Jackson Cluff 350 .194 .282 .309 68 .115 .282 3 0.6 .266 70 29
Stone Garrett 374 .230 .291 .371 87 .141 .317 4 0.5 .290 87 38
Erick Mejia 341 .214 .277 .334 73 .120 .260 3 0.4 .270 72 32
Juan Yepez 519 .250 .309 .420 105 .170 .281 -5 0.4 .315 103 62
Matt Suggs 180 .177 .246 .299 54 .122 .292 5 0.3 .243 57 12
Nasim Nuñez 491 .211 .300 .255 60 .045 .281 1 0.3 .257 63 42
Yohandy Morales 298 .251 .315 .362 92 .111 .333 2 0.3 .300 94 32
Trey Lipscomb 485 .240 .285 .326 73 .086 .294 2 0.3 .270 75 47
Cayden Wallace 389 .223 .278 .329 72 .106 .279 3 0.2 .268 75 35
Riley Adams 289 .219 .301 .375 91 .156 .291 -8 0.2 .297 90 29
Daylen Lile 557 .231 .293 .352 82 .121 .289 3 0.2 .284 87 56
Maxwell Romero Jr. 303 .182 .252 .306 58 .124 .283 4 0.2 .247 65 21
Andrew Pinckney 541 .236 .295 .335 79 .099 .342 -5 0.0 .280 81 55
Kevin Made 404 .193 .265 .262 51 .069 .271 5 -0.1 .240 56 27
C.J. Stubbs 322 .178 .264 .307 62 .129 .304 -2 -0.2 .257 64 25
Robert Hassell III 470 .220 .284 .306 68 .087 .296 -1 -0.2 .263 72 41
Brady Lindsly 250 .201 .259 .277 53 .076 .292 0 -0.3 .241 56 16
J.T. Arruda 419 .204 .276 .284 60 .080 .280 1 -0.3 .253 61 32
Murphy Stehly 294 .221 .286 .292 65 .071 .315 -1 -0.4 .260 65 24
Cortland Lawson 379 .216 .271 .274 56 .058 .313 1 -0.4 .245 57 28
Geraldi Diaz 194 .174 .258 .278 53 .104 .249 -3 -0.5 .243 53 13
Israel Pineda 304 .181 .220 .264 37 .083 .246 5 -0.5 .215 40 17
Onix Vega 245 .208 .291 .268 61 .060 .263 -6 -0.6 .257 60 17
Elijah Nunez 140 .173 .271 .214 41 .041 .240 -2 -0.6 .230 43 9
Cody Wilson 261 .171 .239 .240 37 .069 .308 4 -0.6 .219 39 16
Jordy Barley 265 .186 .247 .260 45 .074 .302 -1 -0.6 .229 49 20
Will Frizzell 269 .205 .290 .293 67 .088 .322 0 -0.6 .265 69 21
Dérmis Garcia 398 .191 .261 .341 69 .150 .273 2 -0.8 .264 70 33
Viandel Pena 395 .210 .270 .271 55 .061 .301 -1 -0.8 .244 60 30
Gavin Dugas 352 .186 .278 .267 56 .080 .292 -4 -0.8 .252 58 25
Paul Witt 252 .188 .236 .317 55 .128 .234 -3 -0.9 .243 57 18
Sammy Infante 325 .189 .255 .287 54 .098 .282 -3 -1.0 .244 58 24
Roismar Quintana 343 .215 .280 .298 65 .083 .301 0 -1.0 .259 67 27
Johnathon Thomas 322 .183 .252 .235 40 .053 .304 1 -1.0 .225 44 23
John McHenry 209 .166 .250 .244 42 .078 .261 0 -1.0 .228 47 13
Jeremy De La Rosa 437 .201 .252 .337 65 .135 .296 0 -1.3 .256 71 39
Branden Boissiere 323 .198 .263 .280 55 .082 .277 -1 -1.4 .244 57 22
Jared McKenzie 392 .209 .252 .297 55 .088 .308 1 -1.4 .243 62 30
Marcus Brown 404 .180 .229 .255 37 .074 .229 0 -1.4 .217 43 23
Trey Harris 342 .203 .252 .266 48 .063 .270 0 -1.8 .233 48 23
T.J. White 421 .174 .238 .293 50 .119 .260 0 -2.0 .236 61 27
Armando Cruz 401 .189 .224 .235 31 .046 .230 -3 -2.1 .206 38 22

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
James Wood Christian Yelich Tommy Harper Gary Matthews
Dylan Crews Amos Otis Kevin Bass Marty Keough
CJ Abrams Zoilo Versalles Brett Lawrie Jerry Royster
Luis García Jr. Aaron Miles Chico Salmon Bob Johnson
Andrés Chaparro Doug Rader Davey Williams Mike Lowell
José Tena Chris Owings Paul Dade Andrés Giménez
Alex Call Francisco Leandro Chris Prieto Jose Ortiz
Jacob Young Rajai Davis Kyle Wren Ruddy Yan
Drew Millas Frankie Pytlak Johnny Oates Brad Ausmus
Keibert Ruiz Yohel Pozo Bob Boone Keith Moreland
Jack Dunn Jeff Cox Dan Monzon Lamarr Rogers
Jake Alu Curt Roberts Marty Malloy Manny Estrada
Joey Gallo Pat Dodson Joe Hauser Tracy Sanders
Phillip Glasser Alexi Casilla Don Mason Dave Oliver
Brady House Steve Proscia J.C. Martin Juan Delgado
Ildemaro Vargas Luis Figueroa Francisco Obregon Wilbur Huckle
Travis Blankenhorn Andy Wilkins Brandon Moss John Fishel
Darren Baker Keith Thrower Bernie Castro Eider Torres
Jackson Cluff R.D. Long Juan Bell Connor Kopach
Stone Garrett Bob Duretto Dustan Mohr Javier Herrera
Erick Mejia Jerry Davanon Chuck Cottier Tom Brookens
Juan Yepez Gaby Sanchez Kevin Millar Charlie Grimm
Matt Suggs Nerio Rodriguez Jim Hibbs Jeremy Deitrick
Nasim Nuñez Al Ryan Mike Brocki Matt Shepherd
Yohandy Morales Craig Cooper Billy Fleming Mark Karaviotis
Trey Lipscomb James Guinn Lee Tate Joe Hall
Cayden Wallace James Dyer Isaias Velasquez Kevin Collins
Riley Adams Rob Natal Nick Hundley Andy Etchebarren
Daylen Lile Anthony Webster TJ Friedl Johnny Damon
Maxwell Romero Jr. Glenn Sutko Al Liebert Javier Pages
Andrew Pinckney David Francisco Reginald Niles Roberto Kelly
Kevin Made Norm Manning Jack Langer Pete Kozma
C.J. Stubbs John Orton Kevin Burrell Ron Tingley
Robert Hassell III Travis Swaggerty Everett Graham Tommie Martz
Brady Lindsly Tony DeFrancesco John Olerud Terry Bell
J.T. Arruda Matt Matulia Brian Friday Dan Lyons
Murphy Stehly Levi Jordan Jim Gruber Chris Paul
Cortland Lawson Brock Hebert Enohel Polanco Drew Meyer
Geraldi Diaz Mike Morland Kevin Dubler Sammy Rodriguez
Israel Pineda Chris Okey Jay Kleven Andres Pagan
Onix Vega Mike Gobbo Kevin Davidson Jeremy Dowdy
Elijah Nunez Chris Vlasis Mike Curry Chris Hopkins
Cody Wilson Carroll Hardy Trey Martin Bobby Andrews
Jordy Barley Manuel Nunez Angelo Fermin Malik Collymore
Will Frizzell Daniel Comstock Eduardo Figueroa Mark Samuelson
Dérmis Garcia Keith Raisanen Joe Hicks Stanley Patykula
Viandel Pena Marcus Sanders B.J. Guinn Jose Guillen
Gavin Dugas Ronald Ramirez Joseph Batten Brandon Van Horn
Paul Witt Zak Farkes Dino Ebel Manny Gagliano
Sammy Infante Jason Christian Mel Pettigrew Deivy Batista
Roismar Quintana Aaron Bray Don Lemley Dave Gaynor
Johnathon Thomas Franklin Romero Glenn Washington Kevin House
John McHenry Cesar Guillen Craig Kerner Rob Bystrowski
Jeremy De La Rosa Cecil Rodriques Nolan Lane Julio Martinez
Branden Boissiere Dave Jensen Stephen Hunt Brian McConkey
Jared McKenzie Jeremy Jackson Trey Martin Dennis Sherow
Marcus Brown Jace Brewer Paul Louis Wanninger David Davalillo
Trey Harris Brad Netzel Steve Nyisztor Damian Rolls
T.J. White David Mowry Will Love Charlie Alimena
Armando Cruz Gavin Jackson Ambiorix Reyes Bobby Diaz

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
James Wood .295 .382 .509 150 4.7 .235 .327 .405 108 1.6
Dylan Crews .268 .333 .447 118 3.9 .221 .284 .352 81 1.4
CJ Abrams .274 .336 .477 126 4.1 .231 .291 .377 89 1.3
Luis García Jr. .295 .336 .470 124 3.7 .241 .280 .376 85 0.9
Andrés Chaparro .269 .333 .454 120 3.4 .222 .286 .352 81 0.8
José Tena .286 .330 .439 113 3.0 .229 .273 .341 74 0.2
Alex Call .252 .356 .419 116 2.6 .202 .303 .316 77 0.6
Jacob Young .274 .334 .356 97 2.5 .219 .284 .283 62 0.2
Drew Millas .273 .335 .407 108 2.1 .217 .278 .313 70 0.5
Keibert Ruiz .276 .318 .456 115 2.5 .219 .264 .346 73 -0.1
Jack Dunn .246 .345 .339 94 2.1 .194 .287 .262 60 0.3
Jake Alu .275 .329 .410 107 1.9 .219 .273 .324 69 -0.1
Joey Gallo .201 .335 .466 121 2.0 .152 .277 .322 73 -0.1
Phillip Glasser .279 .345 .390 107 1.8 .223 .291 .306 72 -0.1
Brady House .257 .303 .423 103 2.1 .206 .256 .333 66 -0.3
Ildemaro Vargas .266 .318 .368 95 1.7 .210 .260 .285 56 0.0
Travis Blankenhorn .242 .313 .461 115 1.9 .193 .263 .357 76 -0.3
Darren Baker .287 .334 .346 93 1.8 .229 .273 .276 57 -0.5
Jackson Cluff .218 .310 .360 89 1.5 .164 .255 .265 50 -0.2
Stone Garrett .257 .318 .420 105 1.3 .199 .262 .323 66 -0.5
Erick Mejia .244 .307 .391 96 1.4 .188 .247 .290 55 -0.4
Juan Yepez .275 .332 .471 124 1.6 .224 .282 .369 86 -0.8
Matt Suggs .209 .282 .360 80 0.9 .146 .215 .241 31 -0.2
Nasim Nuñez .236 .329 .292 77 1.3 .186 .276 .227 47 -0.6
Yohandy Morales .278 .339 .409 112 1.1 .221 .281 .320 73 -0.4
Trey Lipscomb .265 .311 .366 90 1.3 .212 .257 .289 55 -0.9
Cayden Wallace .251 .306 .369 90 1.1 .196 .251 .288 55 -0.7
Riley Adams .243 .327 .425 111 0.9 .189 .272 .314 67 -0.6
Daylen Lile .254 .313 .397 99 1.3 .206 .269 .312 66 -1.0
Maxwell Romero Jr. .208 .280 .357 79 0.9 .152 .222 .256 37 -0.6
Andrew Pinckney .258 .318 .374 94 1.0 .210 .271 .296 63 -1.1
Kevin Made .219 .288 .302 69 0.8 .168 .240 .223 35 -0.9
C.J. Stubbs .206 .292 .367 84 0.7 .150 .232 .259 42 -1.0
Robert Hassell III .248 .310 .348 86 0.8 .198 .263 .272 55 -1.1
Brady Lindsly .230 .294 .324 75 0.4 .167 .229 .231 32 -0.9
J.T. Arruda .227 .302 .320 77 0.5 .176 .251 .249 43 -1.2
Murphy Stehly .248 .312 .331 83 0.3 .192 .257 .256 46 -1.1
Cortland Lawson .248 .300 .313 75 0.5 .187 .241 .237 39 -1.2
Geraldi Diaz .203 .285 .327 70 -0.1 .147 .229 .237 33 -1.0
Israel Pineda .208 .253 .304 57 0.2 .154 .199 .223 20 -1.2
Onix Vega .238 .322 .308 79 0.0 .175 .262 .232 42 -1.1
Elijah Nunez .202 .302 .250 60 -0.2 .147 .243 .187 26 -0.8
Cody Wilson .198 .265 .279 53 0.0 .142 .209 .197 16 -1.3
Jordy Barley .214 .272 .300 63 0.0 .157 .218 .216 25 -1.2
Will Frizzell .232 .318 .328 83 -0.1 .174 .260 .250 45 -1.4
Dérmis Garcia .221 .292 .388 89 0.2 .167 .235 .288 49 -1.8
Viandel Pena .238 .298 .308 73 0.1 .182 .245 .233 37 -1.6
Gavin Dugas .215 .306 .311 76 0.0 .161 .255 .224 38 -1.6
Paul Witt .213 .265 .377 79 -0.1 .165 .212 .270 36 -1.5
Sammy Infante .214 .281 .333 72 -0.3 .161 .229 .240 34 -1.9
Roismar Quintana .239 .309 .344 83 -0.2 .190 .257 .258 48 -1.8
Johnathon Thomas .211 .280 .279 59 -0.2 .156 .227 .203 25 -1.6
John McHenry .193 .276 .289 60 -0.6 .143 .224 .204 23 -1.5
Jeremy De La Rosa .230 .280 .383 84 -0.3 .179 .230 .298 49 -2.2
Branden Boissiere .223 .291 .325 73 -0.7 .172 .234 .244 36 -2.1
Jared McKenzie .237 .278 .340 74 -0.5 .183 .227 .258 38 -2.3
Marcus Brown .204 .252 .295 55 -0.6 .157 .205 .220 22 -2.2
Trey Harris .232 .281 .307 67 -1.0 .178 .229 .233 33 -2.5
T.J. White .200 .266 .346 71 -0.9 .148 .214 .254 32 -3.0
Armando Cruz .219 .249 .275 49 -1.2 .166 .198 .200 15 -2.9

Batters – Platoon Splits
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
James Wood .256 .328 .409 .268 .361 .477
Dylan Crews .243 .314 .388 .246 .308 .402
CJ Abrams .240 .299 .368 .258 .318 .444
Luis García Jr. .260 .296 .400 .273 .313 .432
Andrés Chaparro .245 .319 .417 .239 .301 .401
José Tena .253 .292 .374 .259 .307 .397
Alex Call .234 .342 .387 .221 .318 .355
Jacob Young .250 .313 .325 .244 .306 .313
Drew Millas .235 .297 .353 .248 .313 .361
Keibert Ruiz .254 .296 .394 .243 .287 .396
Jack Dunn .225 .324 .308 .218 .311 .294
Jake Alu .250 .294 .348 .250 .307 .375
Joey Gallo .176 .292 .374 .180 .311 .404
Phillip Glasser .239 .306 .303 .258 .326 .364
Brady House .243 .289 .405 .229 .273 .360
Ildemaro Vargas .244 .287 .331 .237 .289 .325
Travis Blankenhorn .211 .281 .368 .224 .292 .426
Darren Baker .238 .285 .287 .266 .313 .322
Jackson Cluff .189 .267 .278 .196 .288 .322
Stone Garrett .238 .299 .404 .223 .285 .346
Erick Mejia .219 .274 .360 .211 .279 .320
Juan Yepez .255 .318 .441 .248 .303 .408
Matt Suggs .173 .246 .269 .179 .244 .313
Nasim Nuñez .212 .296 .261 .210 .302 .252
Yohandy Morales .256 .330 .366 .249 .309 .360
Trey Lipscomb .243 .287 .329 .239 .284 .325
Cayden Wallace .226 .284 .349 .221 .275 .320
Riley Adams .222 .304 .374 .217 .299 .376
Daylen Lile .228 .288 .323 .232 .295 .361
Maxwell Romero Jr. .169 .244 .254 .186 .254 .324
Andrew Pinckney .245 .306 .354 .232 .290 .327
Kevin Made .198 .269 .273 .191 .263 .257
C.J. Stubbs .178 .272 .307 .178 .261 .308
Robert Hassell III .219 .286 .308 .221 .283 .306
Brady Lindsly .188 .232 .266 .206 .269 .281
J.T. Arruda .216 .281 .302 .198 .274 .276
Murphy Stehly .228 .295 .316 .218 .282 .282
Cortland Lawson .225 .279 .284 .212 .267 .269
Geraldi Diaz .167 .250 .259 .176 .261 .286
Israel Pineda .190 .236 .290 .176 .212 .250
Onix Vega .213 .302 .293 .204 .283 .254
Elijah Nunez .171 .256 .200 .174 .277 .221
Cody Wilson .182 .250 .260 .167 .234 .231
Jordy Barley .188 .250 .259 .185 .246 .261
Will Frizzell .200 .278 .277 .207 .294 .299
Dérmis Garcia .200 .281 .354 .186 .250 .333
Viandel Pena .207 .261 .261 .211 .274 .275
Gavin Dugas .189 .280 .263 .185 .278 .269
Paul Witt .186 .240 .329 .189 .234 .311
Sammy Infante .191 .262 .298 .187 .252 .281
Roismar Quintana .221 .292 .305 .212 .274 .295
Johnathon Thomas .186 .255 .233 .181 .251 .236
John McHenry .167 .246 .259 .165 .252 .236
Jeremy De La Rosa .191 .236 .330 .205 .258 .339
Branden Boissiere .193 .261 .253 .200 .264 .290
Jared McKenzie .207 .245 .283 .210 .254 .301
Marcus Brown .173 .229 .255 .183 .229 .254
Trey Harris .210 .260 .277 .199 .247 .259
T.J. White .175 .240 .289 .173 .236 .294
Armando Cruz .196 .235 .250 .187 .219 .230

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
MacKenzie Gore L 26 9 9 3.98 28 28 144.7 136 64 17 55 153
Mitchell Parker L 25 7 8 4.32 27 26 131.3 129 63 16 50 117
Jake Irvin R 28 8 11 4.55 29 29 156.3 152 79 24 49 129
Tyler Stuart R 25 5 6 4.36 23 23 109.3 111 53 14 34 88
DJ Herz L 24 6 9 4.43 26 26 107.7 93 53 13 57 118
Cade Cavalli R 26 4 4 4.26 15 15 69.7 64 33 7 31 67
Andry Lara R 22 8 12 4.87 24 24 114.7 122 62 17 40 83
Andrew Alvarez L 26 6 9 4.80 24 22 110.7 119 59 15 42 76
Trevor Williams R 33 4 5 4.62 20 17 85.7 92 44 13 29 68
Hyun-il Choi R 25 5 9 4.85 21 17 98.3 104 53 15 27 72
Derek Law R 34 5 4 3.82 60 1 68.3 67 29 7 25 58
Robert Garcia L 29 4 4 3.54 57 0 53.3 46 21 5 19 61
Josiah Gray R 27 5 8 4.92 21 21 111.7 106 61 20 46 102
Jackson Rutledge R 26 4 8 5.03 25 24 112.7 116 63 15 49 87
Kyle Luckham R 25 5 9 5.10 25 23 125.3 143 71 19 32 67
Seth Shuman R 27 3 5 4.90 17 16 64.3 71 35 9 19 44
Konnor Pilkington L 27 3 5 4.96 27 19 78.0 77 43 10 40 68
Chase Solesky R 27 4 5 4.97 19 17 83.3 94 46 12 29 49
Eduardo Salazar R 27 3 4 4.71 38 10 80.3 83 42 9 34 59
Kyle Finnegan R 33 5 5 4.12 60 0 59.0 56 27 8 22 55
Joan Adon R 26 4 7 4.95 26 17 92.7 96 51 12 39 72
Alex Troop L 28 4 5 4.99 21 11 74.0 79 41 12 26 54
Dustin Saenz L 26 4 6 5.10 17 17 72.3 82 41 10 22 40
Jose A. Ferrer L 25 2 3 4.08 50 0 53.0 52 24 5 16 42
Mason Thompson R 27 3 3 4.24 38 1 40.3 40 19 4 15 34
Spenser Watkins R 32 4 7 5.10 21 18 90.0 102 51 13 32 56
Tim Cate L 27 4 6 4.86 39 7 63.0 65 34 8 29 48
Cole Henry R 25 1 3 5.21 15 12 38.0 37 22 5 18 32
Richard Bleier L 38 1 1 4.25 31 0 29.7 34 14 3 5 17
Joe La Sorsa L 27 2 2 4.52 49 1 65.7 68 33 9 17 46
Robert Gsellman R 31 1 2 5.03 16 4 34.0 36 19 5 13 24
Lucas Knowles L 27 3 4 5.07 23 5 49.7 54 28 7 19 34
Zach Brzykcy R 25 2 3 4.53 37 1 43.7 40 22 6 21 45
Rodney Theophile R 25 4 7 5.38 19 18 77.0 81 46 11 39 56
Matt Barnes R 35 1 3 4.67 30 2 27.0 26 14 3 12 25
Patrick Corbin L 35 6 11 5.41 26 26 136.3 163 82 23 48 107
Michael Rucker R 31 2 2 4.60 33 0 45.0 46 23 6 17 38
Marquis Grissom Jr. R 23 2 2 4.56 42 0 51.3 52 26 7 18 40
Michael Cuevas R 24 5 9 5.42 26 18 91.3 102 55 12 40 52
Tyler Schoff R 26 2 4 4.78 34 0 43.3 44 23 6 16 36
Daison Acosta R 26 3 4 4.91 40 2 51.3 49 28 6 29 46
Samuel Reyes R 29 3 4 5.07 35 3 55.0 59 31 8 25 42
Evan Reifert R 26 1 2 4.86 33 0 37.0 32 20 5 21 41
Richard Guasch R 27 3 4 5.22 24 4 39.7 38 23 5 24 37
Jacob Barnes R 35 3 5 4.88 51 0 51.7 54 28 8 19 42
Brad Lord R 25 3 6 5.56 24 15 90.7 105 56 15 25 47
Stephen Nogosek R 30 2 2 4.93 25 0 34.7 34 19 4 20 29
Amos Willingham R 26 3 5 4.85 47 0 59.3 62 32 9 22 48
Patrick Weigel R 30 2 3 5.30 30 1 35.7 34 21 4 21 30
Orlando Ribalta R 27 2 5 5.05 45 0 46.3 46 26 6 25 42
Jack Sinclair R 26 3 5 5.11 41 0 49.3 49 28 7 21 40
Ty Tice R 28 2 2 5.11 42 1 49.3 50 28 7 27 44
Jordan Weems R 32 2 3 5.17 50 0 54.0 53 31 8 26 48
Holden Powell R 25 3 5 5.50 30 0 34.3 35 21 5 20 27
Todd Peterson R 27 2 4 5.44 36 2 44.7 50 27 7 19 27
Clay Helvey R 28 4 6 5.07 37 0 60.3 59 34 9 32 56
Carlos Romero R 25 1 3 5.43 38 1 53.0 54 32 8 28 43
Garvin Alston L 28 1 3 5.36 39 0 50.3 54 30 7 26 34
Luis Reyes R 30 3 6 6.07 23 9 59.3 67 40 10 36 40

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ 3ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
MacKenzie Gore 144.7 9.5 3.4 1.1 8.8% 24.5% .305 102 102 3.86 98 2.1
Mitchell Parker 131.3 8.0 3.4 1.1 8.7% 20.4% .297 94 97 4.17 106 1.4
Jake Irvin 156.3 7.4 2.8 1.4 7.4% 19.5% .281 90 90 4.62 112 1.3
Tyler Stuart 109.3 7.2 2.8 1.2 7.2% 18.7% .295 93 96 4.33 107 1.3
DJ Herz 107.7 9.9 4.8 1.1 12.0% 24.8% .288 92 96 4.37 109 1.1
Cade Cavalli 69.7 8.7 4.0 0.9 10.3% 22.2% .294 96 98 4.15 105 0.8
Andry Lara 114.7 6.5 3.1 1.3 8.0% 16.6% .294 84 88 4.81 119 0.7
Andrew Alvarez 110.7 6.2 3.4 1.2 8.5% 15.4% .296 85 88 4.87 118 0.7
Trevor Williams 85.7 7.1 3.0 1.4 7.8% 18.3% .302 88 84 4.68 113 0.6
Hyun-il Choi 98.3 6.6 2.5 1.4 6.4% 17.1% .293 84 88 4.80 119 0.6
Derek Law 68.3 7.6 3.3 0.9 8.4% 19.5% .297 107 101 4.00 94 0.6
Robert Garcia 53.3 10.3 3.2 0.8 8.4% 27.0% .299 115 112 3.29 87 0.6
Josiah Gray 111.7 8.2 3.7 1.6 9.5% 21.0% .277 83 85 5.08 121 0.5
Jackson Rutledge 112.7 6.9 3.9 1.2 9.7% 17.3% .294 81 84 4.94 124 0.4
Kyle Luckham 125.3 4.8 2.3 1.4 5.9% 12.3% .294 80 84 5.04 125 0.4
Seth Shuman 64.3 6.2 2.7 1.3 6.8% 15.7% .301 83 86 4.70 120 0.4
Konnor Pilkington 78.0 7.8 4.6 1.2 11.5% 19.5% .295 82 85 4.79 122 0.3
Chase Solesky 83.3 5.3 3.1 1.3 7.9% 13.3% .297 82 84 4.99 122 0.3
Eduardo Salazar 80.3 6.6 3.8 1.0 9.5% 16.5% .296 87 88 4.73 116 0.3
Kyle Finnegan 59.0 8.4 3.4 1.2 8.7% 21.7% .289 99 94 4.25 101 0.3
Joan Adon 92.7 7.0 3.8 1.2 9.4% 17.4% .297 82 85 4.83 122 0.3
Alex Troop 74.0 6.6 3.2 1.5 8.0% 16.7% .293 82 84 5.00 122 0.3
Dustin Saenz 72.3 5.0 2.7 1.2 6.9% 12.6% .296 80 83 4.95 125 0.3
Jose A. Ferrer 53.0 7.1 2.7 0.8 7.1% 18.6% .294 100 103 3.90 100 0.2
Mason Thompson 40.3 7.6 3.3 0.9 8.5% 19.3% .300 96 98 4.05 104 0.2
Spenser Watkins 90.0 5.6 3.2 1.3 8.0% 14.0% .301 80 77 5.01 125 0.2
Tim Cate 63.0 6.9 4.1 1.1 10.3% 17.0% .295 84 88 4.78 119 0.1
Cole Henry 38.0 7.6 4.3 1.2 10.7% 19.0% .288 78 84 4.94 128 0.1
Richard Bleier 29.7 5.2 1.5 0.9 3.9% 13.3% .307 96 88 3.95 104 0.1
Joe La Sorsa 65.7 6.3 2.3 1.2 6.1% 16.6% .288 90 92 4.56 111 0.0
Robert Gsellman 34.0 6.4 3.4 1.3 8.7% 16.1% .292 81 80 5.09 123 0.0
Lucas Knowles 49.7 6.2 3.4 1.3 8.6% 15.4% .297 80 83 4.91 125 0.0
Zach Brzykcy 43.7 9.3 4.3 1.2 11.0% 23.6% .291 90 94 4.55 111 0.0
Rodney Theophile 77.0 6.5 4.6 1.3 11.0% 15.8% .293 76 80 5.37 132 0.0
Matt Barnes 27.0 8.3 4.0 1.0 10.0% 20.8% .299 87 78 4.33 115 0.0
Patrick Corbin 136.3 7.1 3.2 1.5 7.8% 17.5% .324 75 70 4.92 133 0.0
Michael Rucker 45.0 7.6 3.4 1.2 8.6% 19.3% .299 89 86 4.49 113 -0.1
Marquis Grissom Jr. 51.3 7.0 3.2 1.2 8.0% 17.9% .290 89 95 4.62 112 -0.1
Michael Cuevas 91.3 5.1 3.9 1.2 9.7% 12.6% .296 75 79 5.32 133 -0.1
Tyler Schoff 43.3 7.5 3.3 1.2 8.4% 18.9% .295 85 90 4.49 117 -0.1
Daison Acosta 51.3 8.1 5.1 1.1 12.4% 19.7% .293 83 85 4.83 121 -0.1
Samuel Reyes 55.0 6.9 4.1 1.3 10.1% 16.9% .300 80 81 4.96 125 -0.1
Evan Reifert 37.0 10.0 5.1 1.2 12.3% 24.0% .284 84 88 4.83 119 -0.1
Richard Guasch 39.7 8.4 5.4 1.1 13.0% 20.1% .295 78 80 5.14 128 -0.1
Jacob Barnes 51.7 7.3 3.3 1.4 8.4% 18.6% .297 84 78 4.73 120 -0.2
Brad Lord 90.7 4.7 2.5 1.5 6.3% 11.8% .293 73 77 5.45 136 -0.2
Stephen Nogosek 34.7 7.5 5.2 1.0 12.8% 18.6% .294 83 82 4.91 121 -0.2
Amos Willingham 59.3 7.3 3.3 1.4 8.4% 18.3% .296 84 87 4.80 119 -0.2
Patrick Weigel 35.7 7.6 5.3 1.0 13.0% 18.5% .288 77 77 5.14 130 -0.2
Orlando Ribalta 46.3 8.2 4.9 1.2 11.9% 20.0% .299 81 83 4.80 124 -0.3
Jack Sinclair 49.3 7.3 3.8 1.3 9.6% 18.3% .288 80 84 5.04 125 -0.3
Ty Tice 49.3 8.0 4.9 1.3 11.8% 19.2% .301 80 81 5.06 125 -0.3
Jordan Weems 54.0 8.0 4.3 1.3 10.9% 20.1% .290 79 77 4.88 127 -0.4
Holden Powell 34.3 7.1 5.2 1.3 12.5% 16.9% .291 74 79 5.51 135 -0.4
Todd Peterson 44.7 5.4 3.8 1.4 9.4% 13.3% .295 75 76 5.42 134 -0.4
Clay Helvey 60.3 8.4 4.8 1.3 11.6% 20.3% .292 80 81 5.05 125 -0.5
Carlos Romero 53.0 7.3 4.8 1.4 11.6% 17.8% .291 75 80 5.39 133 -0.5
Garvin Alston 50.3 6.1 4.6 1.3 11.4% 14.8% .294 76 77 5.42 132 -0.5
Luis Reyes 59.3 6.1 5.5 1.5 12.8% 14.2% .300 67 67 6.09 149 -0.6

Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
MacKenzie Gore Tom Browning Sean Manaea Jim O’Toole
Mitchell Parker Jerry Reuss Alex Graman Jarrod Washburn
Jake Irvin Ervin Santana Jim Slaton Matt Garza
Tyler Stuart Henderson Alvarez Jason Davis Cal Quantrill
DJ Herz Mark Langston Juan Nieves Gio González
Cade Cavalli Andy McGaffigan Andy Rincon Jaret Wright
Andry Lara Brett Schlomann Steve Bechler Toby Larson
Andrew Alvarez Larry Casian Daniel Rosenbaum Nate Smith
Trevor Williams Eddie Erautt John Thomson Tomo Ohka
Hyun-il Choi Mule Watson Jeff Fischer Jerry Lyscio
Derek Law Alfredo Simon Billy O’Dell Mike Marshall
Robert Garcia Adam Liberatore Allen McDill Xavier Cedeno
Josiah Gray Mudcat Grant Art Mahaffey Steve McCatty
Jackson Rutledge Dylan Covey Garrett Richards Edwin Jackson
Kyle Luckham Raul Alcantara Ariel Jurado Gabriel Ynoa
Seth Shuman Steve Blateric Gale Dennis Mike Zamba
Konnor Pilkington Steve Engel Steve Barr Shane Young
Chase Solesky Greg Brinkman Tobi Stoner Jordan Pals
Eduardo Salazar Nick Masset Tony Mack Jason Davis
Kyle Finnegan Jumbo Diaz Tim Worrell Johnny Morrison
Joan Adon Drew VerHagen Henry Sosa Jeff Samardzija
Alex Troop Bryan Braswell Larry Acker Scott Navarro
Dustin Saenz Dave Hartman T.J. Hendricks Corey Spiers
Jose A. Ferrer Richard Lovelady Jesse Carlson Rick Palma
Mason Thompson Jim York Trevor Gott Ike Brookens
Spenser Watkins Jason Berken Kyle Davies Robert Ellis
Tim Cate Cesar Ramos Ryan Sherriff Eric Stout
Cole Henry Jeff Arney Robert Plemmons Nick Radakovic
Richard Bleier Stubby Overmire Joe Ostrowski Mike Magnante
Joe La Sorsa Steve Sharts Bob Baxter Judd Johnson
Robert Gsellman Steve Phoenix Jeff McCurry Dutch Romberger
Lucas Knowles Tim Hamulack Scott Eibey Mark Hendrickson
Zach Brzykcy Keith Fleming Rich Polak Dave Tobik
Rodney Theophile Matt Apana Miguel Batista Nick Maness
Matt Barnes Don Brennan Todd Frohwirth Mike Fetters
Patrick Corbin Clayton Richard Ross Detwiler Richard Salazar
Michael Rucker Jeremy McBryde John Hogg Victor Marte
Marquis Grissom Jr. Phillip Hinrichs Kable Hogben Richard De Los Santos
Michael Cuevas Mike Bell George Gerberman Angel Sanchez
Tyler Schoff Jerrod Fuell Jay Aldrich Aaron Dorlarque
Daison Acosta Jack Savage Mark Silva Daniel Webb
Samuel Reyes Carlos Castillo Matt Langwell John Pawlowski
Evan Reifert Wilmer Font Jhan Marinez Gary Neibauer
Richard Guasch Jeff Hirsch Hector Nelo Patrick Mincey
Jacob Barnes Frank Sullivan Javy Guerra Jim Miller
Brad Lord Zach Eflin Walker Lockett Raul Alcantara
Stephen Nogosek Juan Cerros Pete Walker Pete Appleton
Amos Willingham Zac Reininger Blake Wood Carlos Castillo
Patrick Weigel Juan Cerros Bill Moran Marc Pisciotta
Orlando Ribalta Kyle Mertins Mitch Lively Benji Miller
Jack Sinclair Paul Voelker Elvys Quezada Andrew Bellatti
Ty Tice Steve Palazzolo Joe Borowski Gerardo Casadiego
Jordan Weems Dustin McGowan Neftali Feliz Wes Gardner
Holden Powell Nevin Brewer Donald Hammitt Eddie Moore
Todd Peterson Jonathan Miller Tim Wood Matt Petrusek
Clay Helvey Bill Moran Alberto Cabrera Mark Woodyard
Carlos Romero Wilton Noel Greg Talamantez Mark Ecker
Garvin Alston Bobby Bramhall Pat McCoy Gabe Gonzalez
Luis Reyes Jon Skaggs Tim Gustafson Rob Zimmermann

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
MacKenzie Gore .236 .311 .389 .245 .317 .394 3.0 1.0 3.49 4.60
Mitchell Parker .225 .299 .370 .261 .325 .420 2.4 0.5 3.77 4.95
Jake Irvin .248 .322 .434 .251 .302 .424 2.3 0.3 4.03 5.13
Tyler Stuart .275 .340 .436 .239 .296 .399 1.9 0.6 3.85 4.93
DJ Herz .237 .331 .347 .223 .331 .392 2.0 0.2 3.81 5.12
Cade Cavalli .258 .354 .444 .222 .307 .313 1.2 0.3 3.82 4.95
Andry Lara .282 .354 .495 .253 .305 .402 1.3 -0.1 4.41 5.47
Andrew Alvarez .258 .327 .424 .274 .343 .448 1.2 -0.1 4.41 5.46
Trevor Williams .287 .348 .463 .251 .310 .436 1.3 0.1 3.98 5.34
Hyun-il Choi .265 .325 .438 .267 .326 .451 1.1 -0.1 4.36 5.53
Derek Law .241 .315 .371 .258 .319 .397 1.1 -0.1 3.05 4.76
Robert Garcia .213 .280 .333 .234 .308 .367 1.2 0.0 2.72 4.58
Josiah Gray .262 .358 .492 .231 .294 .399 1.3 -0.3 4.36 5.55
Jackson Rutledge .270 .364 .451 .252 .326 .400 1.0 -0.4 4.58 5.61
Kyle Luckham .277 .332 .450 .286 .331 .477 1.0 -0.3 4.70 5.63
Seth Shuman .272 .328 .464 .276 .333 .440 0.7 -0.1 4.41 5.59
Konnor Pilkington .270 .359 .416 .245 .339 .417 0.9 -0.3 4.40 5.68
Chase Solesky .272 .333 .405 .285 .340 .497 0.8 -0.1 4.52 5.46
Eduardo Salazar .270 .359 .412 .253 .332 .412 0.8 -0.2 4.20 5.30
Kyle Finnegan .221 .305 .385 .264 .316 .424 1.0 -0.4 3.42 5.04
Joan Adon .266 .352 .432 .258 .335 .419 0.9 -0.3 4.46 5.50
Alex Troop .268 .327 .464 .268 .333 .455 0.7 -0.3 4.46 5.64
Dustin Saenz .289 .343 .422 .276 .332 .468 0.6 -0.1 4.71 5.60
Jose A. Ferrer .235 .293 .309 .259 .320 .417 0.6 -0.1 3.44 4.70
Mason Thompson .257 .350 .429 .250 .302 .364 0.5 -0.1 3.65 5.07
Spenser Watkins .285 .351 .436 .275 .333 .472 0.7 -0.3 4.66 5.63
Tim Cate .247 .333 .393 .269 .344 .431 0.6 -0.4 4.25 5.62
Cole Henry .254 .367 .478 .247 .326 .370 0.3 -0.3 4.74 5.98
Richard Bleier .250 .280 .354 .301 .333 .479 0.3 -0.2 3.59 5.05
Joe La Sorsa .233 .293 .400 .276 .330 .441 0.6 -0.5 3.84 5.25
Robert Gsellman .262 .348 .459 .270 .337 .432 0.3 -0.2 4.36 5.90
Lucas Knowles .254 .324 .397 .279 .344 .463 0.4 -0.4 4.48 5.82
Zach Brzykcy .264 .376 .431 .219 .296 .385 0.4 -0.4 3.87 5.26
Rodney Theophile .265 .365 .441 .265 .354 .441 0.5 -0.5 4.85 5.97
Matt Barnes .233 .340 .395 .258 .329 .403 0.2 -0.3 3.85 5.62
Patrick Corbin .254 .319 .393 .300 .354 .514 1.0 -0.9 4.71 6.10
Michael Rucker .265 .330 .458 .253 .327 .389 0.3 -0.5 3.91 5.45
Marquis Grissom Jr. .260 .333 .427 .255 .316 .425 0.3 -0.5 4.03 5.26
Michael Cuevas .300 .394 .471 .258 .326 .419 0.3 -0.6 5.09 5.92
Tyler Schoff .250 .326 .438 .264 .320 .418 0.2 -0.4 4.12 5.40
Daison Acosta .277 .378 .489 .219 .325 .314 0.2 -0.6 4.34 5.68
Samuel Reyes .267 .359 .426 .269 .328 .454 0.3 -0.6 4.45 5.92
Evan Reifert .222 .355 .381 .231 .337 .410 0.2 -0.6 4.14 6.05
Richard Guasch .270 .386 .459 .225 .344 .363 0.1 -0.6 4.70 6.32
Jacob Barnes .267 .347 .395 .261 .310 .479 0.2 -0.6 4.17 5.80
Brad Lord .279 .340 .497 .289 .348 .458 0.2 -0.7 5.15 6.09
Stephen Nogosek .242 .365 .387 .260 .345 .425 0.1 -0.6 4.22 5.79
Amos Willingham .277 .357 .475 .252 .311 .415 0.2 -0.7 4.20 5.52
Patrick Weigel .250 .368 .391 .243 .360 .405 0.1 -0.6 4.56 6.32
Orlando Ribalta .259 .376 .447 .247 .321 .392 0.0 -0.6 4.42 5.81
Jack Sinclair .273 .356 .500 .238 .331 .362 0.0 -0.7 4.61 5.86
Ty Tice .273 .373 .455 .245 .341 .406 0.0 -0.8 4.49 5.97
Jordan Weems .258 .348 .423 .246 .326 .430 0.1 -0.9 4.47 6.14
Holden Powell .279 .397 .492 .243 .337 .392 -0.2 -0.7 4.92 6.37
Todd Peterson .293 .372 .488 .265 .330 .439 -0.1 -0.7 4.91 6.05
Clay Helvey .243 .344 .430 .256 .349 .419 0.0 -1.1 4.40 6.12
Carlos Romero .253 .361 .385 .263 .353 .475 -0.1 -0.9 4.86 6.05
Garvin Alston .236 .333 .361 .287 .376 .481 -0.2 -1.0 4.83 6.15
Luis Reyes .307 .412 .518 .254 .354 .429 -0.1 -1.1 5.36 6.86

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2025 due to injury, and players who were released in 2024. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that only covers songs by The Smiths, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.


Sunday Notes: Colt Emerson Believes In Being True To Who You Are

Colt Emerson has a bright future, and he is approaching it with a stay-true-to-yourself mindset. Exactly how much his identity will evolve is the question. Seventeen months removed from being selected 22nd overall in the 2023 draft by the Seattle Mariners out of New Concord, Ohio’s John Glenn High School, the left-handed-hitting shortstop is just 19 years old, with all of 94 professional games under his belt. He has plenty of room to grow, with his below-average raw power being part of that equation.

Emerson recognizes that what he is today isn’t necessarily what he’ll be in the future. At the same time, he doesn’t anticipate changing too much.

“I think I have a good feel for the type of player I am,” the 6-foot-1, 195-pound infielder told me during the Arizona Fall League season, where he slashed a lusty .370/.436/.547. “But I’m also not physically mature yet. I have more strength to put on, and as I keep growing into it, hitting the same way is going to be crucial for me. Getting stronger and being able to put balls over the fence more easily doesn’t mean that I need to try to hit more home runs. They’re going to come, just doing what I do.”

What Emerson currently does is hit line drives with a swing that our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen has described as “aesthetically pleasing.” Generated by “lightning quick hands,“ it produced a .263/.393/.376 with for home runs and a 119 wRC+ over 332 plate appearances between Low-A Modesto and High-A Everett. One of the youngest players at each level, he missed time in April with an oblique issue, and in mid-season he was out for a month-plus due to a fractured foot. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Washington Nationals – Biomechanist

Biomechanist

Job Category: Baseball Operations
Status: Full-Time
Location: Nationals Park, WASHINGTON, DC 20003, USA, West Palm Beach, FL 33407, USA

Overview: The Washington Nationals Baseball Club is seeking a highly skilled Biomechanics Analyst to enhance its sports science capabilities. This role is ideal for early to mid-career researchers with a Master’s or undergraduate degree in Biomechanics or Sport Science with a major biomechanics component. The successful candidate will have independent research experience and be responsible for developing and automating data analysis, standardizing capture protocols, and integrating advanced data analytics into our player development processes.

Responsibilities:

Sample tasks and projects may include:

  • Develop Data Analysis:
    • Enhance the analysis and automation of the existing kinematics data pipeline.
    • Extend the pipeline to include kinetic data and integrate multiple data sources.
  • Daily Data Capture:
    • Capture kinetics data and video at all Nationals organization US locations.
    • Ensure safety, setup, teardown, calibration, and maintenance of equipment.
    • Share actionable data with coaches and players in quick-to-turnaround, easily understood formats that foster continuous feedback and performance improvement.
  • Advanced Reporting and Insights:
    • Leverage third-party libraries for enhanced reporting visualization.
    • Deliver new insights from existing data capture via computer vision and human pose estimation.
  • Data Mining and Statistical Analysis:
    • Utilize historical data to improve models of player monitoring.
    • Incorporate linear and non-linear statistical analyses to propose new solutions to existing problems.

Requirements:

  • Academic:
    • Master’s or undergraduate degree in Biomechanics or Sport Science with a major biomechanics component.
    • Independent research experience, ideally in a professional team environment.
    • NSCA CSCS Certified Strength and Conditioning Specialist certification preferred.
  • Performance and Task Management:
    • Hands-on experience and understanding of kinematics and kinetics data capture and analysis.
    • Technical biomechanics knowledge, including but not limited to: signal processing, electromyography, inertial sensors, equations of motion, 3D coordinate systems, modeling and interpretation of motion analysis, anthropometry, scaling, inverse kinematics, and inverse dynamics.
    • Proficiency with data analysis tools such as Python, SQL, and exposure to computer vision and machine learning frameworks.
    • Practical familiarity with motion capture systems, force plates, and other biomechanics equipment.
  • Communication and Professionalism:
    • Strong interpersonal skills and the ability to work collaboratively with front office, player development colleagues, coaches and players at all levels of the organization.
    • Demonstrable initiative and dependability.
  • Quality of Work:
    • Excellent problem-solving skills, attention to detail, high self-motivation, and trustworthiness.
    • 100% follow-through on tasks and willingness to go the extra mile.
  • Interaction with Peers:
    • Conversational Spanish is highly preferred.
    • Excellent collaboration skills, with a positive attitude in every interaction.
    • Key interfaces include performance analysts, minor league strength and conditioning (S&C), video and medical personnel, coordinators, front office player development staff, as well as research and development (R&D) developers and analysts.
    • Primary interactions involve data capture and subsequent analysis for coaches and players.

Further Information:

  • Reports to the Senior Biomechanist, supported by the Director and Assistant Director of PD Tech & Strategy.
  • Based at the Washington Nationals complex in West Palm Beach, FL, with potential travel to Washington Nationals affiliates.
  • Full-time role with an expectation to be onsite for extended periods during player camps.
  • The position does not have game responsibilities, though short periods of game attendance are encouraged.

Evaluation Process: Stage one of the evaluation will be a biomechanics analysis assessment.

Compensation:
The projected wage rate for this position is $60,000-$65,000 per year. Actual pay is based on several factors, including but not limited to the applicant’s: qualifications, skills, expertise, education/training, certifications, and other organization requirements. Starting salaries for new employees are frequently not at the top of the applicable salary range.

Benefits:

The Nationals offer a competitive and comprehensive benefits package that presently includes:

  • Paid vacation and sick leave, paid holidays throughout the year and a holiday break in December
  • Medical, dental, vision, life and AD&D insurance
  • Short- and long-term disability insurance
  • Flexible spending accounts
  • 401(k) and pension plan
  • Access to complimentary tickets to Nationals home games
  • Employee discounts
  • Free onsite fitness center

Equal Opportunity Employer:

The Nationals are dedicated to offering equal employment and advancement opportunities to all individuals regardless of their race, color, religion, national origin, sex, age, marital status, personal appearance, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, family responsibilities, matriculation, political affiliation, genetic information, disability, or any other protected characteristic under applicable law

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Washington Nationals.


Vacillating for Victor Robles

Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

I was writing from the heart. When the Nationals designated Victor Robles for assignment back in May, I wrote about what it was like to wait for him to make it to the big leagues; and then, once he arrived, to wait for him to turn into a star; and then, when it became clear that he wasn’t going to turn into a star, to wait for him to turn into a solid contributor; and then, as the likelihood of that outcome grew more and more faint, just to wait.

Fans reserve a special kind of affection for players like Robles. They don’t do it on purpose; it’s just how people tend to work. Superstars, with their reliable excellence, are easy to love. They’re big, warm Labrador retrievers with their tails waggling like Gary Sheffield’s bat as they wait impatiently for you to open the front door every night. They give you exactly what you want, and the love they inspire is beautiful and simple. When they move on to another organization, the loss you feel is deep, yes, but its edges are clearly defined because something pure has been taken from you.

When you’ve been watching and waiting and hoping for a player to figure things out for the better part of the decade, the feelings involved are a lot messier. Even if your love and your loss aren’t as profound, their edges are a lot more ragged. You’ve spent years pinballing between highs and lows, hopes and fears, anxiety and joy and despair, sometimes all at once. In other words, it’s a lot more like real life and real love. By the time a player like that moves on, you’ve invested way too much of your well-being in them to simply stop caring. It’s hard to imagine a single Nationals fan anywhere who wasn’t rooting for Robles to finally figure things out once the Mariners gave him the change of scenery he so clearly needed, who wasn’t truly happy to see him get off to a hot start in Seattle. But we all have our limits.

Back on August 6, over at Baseball Prospectus, Mikey Ajeto broke down all the mechanical adjustments that Robles has made since he joined Seattle. (Yes, the same Mikey Ajeto who writes exclusively about pitchers. Honestly, the biggest miracle that Robles has performed isn’t magically going supernova the moment that he turned the W on his hat upside down; it’s getting Ajeto to pay attention to a hitter for once.) He’s dropped his hands, ditched his leg kick, and added a scissor kick and a mini-squat before the pitch. Because Ajeto covered those more technical topics, I can continue to focus on the surface-level numbers. And you know what happened to the surface-level numbers after the publication of that article, which was entirely devoted to documenting Robles’s sudden improvement as the plate? They didn’t just keep getting better, they exploded.

I was wishing as hard as anyone for Robles to succeed with the Mariners, but I didn’t mean like this. I was thrilled to see him land a two-year extension worth a guaranteed $9.75 million, but he wasn’t supposed to instantly turn into the best player in baseball, like moving moving from a district named Washington to an actual state named Washington was all it took to break a powerful curse cast by some old Issaquah-based witch who fell into the Reflecting Pool during her mock trial team’s trip to DC in ninth grade and never got over the humiliation. And no, I’m not exaggerating. From June 5 to August 17, Robles turned his season around, running a 118 wRC+. Since August 18, Robles has literally been the best player in baseball: He’s put up a 230 wRC+ and accrued 1.8 WAR, more than whichever Cooperstown-bound MVP candidate you’d care to name. Sure, it’s fair to point out that he’s running a comically high .527 BABIP over that period, but his .386 xwOBA still ranks 19th among qualified players during that stretch. It’s starting to look like the simplest explanation for why Robles never lived up to his potential is that cherry blossoms are his personal kryptonite.

Somehow Robles left this ragged hole in the hearts of Nationals fans, but arrived in Seattle a gleaming superstar. The chaos has only reared its head lately. Robles is playing through a hip issue, and left his last two games due to different injuries: leg soreness on Sunday and a right hand contusion after getting hit by a pitch to lead off last night’s game, an 11-2 loss to the Yankees. Before Robles was removed against New York, his wildness on the basepaths finally caught up with the Mariners, with whom he’d previously gone 25-for-25 on stolen base attempts. He was caught stealing home in the bottom of the first inning, taking the bat out of Justin Turner’s hands with the bases loaded, two outs, and a 3-0 count.

I’m not saying all this is going to last, no matter how much Robles loves the Puget Sound. Since he arrived in Seattle, he’s run a 34.4% hard-hit rate and an 86.7-mph average exit velocity. The former is much better than Robles has put up in any previous season, but the latter isn’t and both are still well below league average. The real change is his barrel rate of 8.6%, which is miles above anything he’s accomplished in previous years. But keep in mind that we’re talking about just 13 barrels out of 151 balls in play, and neither his launch angle nor his GB/FB rate represents much of a departure from his career numbers. We’ve moved past any-batter-can-do-just-about-anything-over-60-plate-appearances territory, but we’re not all that far off either.

Robles has made some honest-to-goodness adjustments to his swing that have had an immediate, dramatic effect — frankly, the effect was so immediate and so dramatic that the Nationals should be looking closely at every single one of those adjustments and asking themselves what the Mariners saw that they didn’t — and we should probably adjust our priors going forward. But I haven’t seen anything (yet) to convince me that he’s going to keep running a BABIP above .500 from here on out. Further, Robles has been dealing with a hip issue in addition to the leg soreness (which is a separate ailment) and the hand injury that forced his early exit from the last two games. As someone who spent something like a quarter of my life rooting for Robles to finally put it all together, I sincerely hope his nagging injuries turn out to be no more than just that, and that when Robles finally does come down to earth, he finds a comfortable spot that’s situated well above sea level. But as long as he’s spending whole months with a wRC+ above 200, I reserve the right to be a little jealous.


Soccer Luminaries Encounter Curious American Ball Sport

The English language is full to overflowing with sailing idioms: Obvious ones, like “even-keeled,” and others, like “three square meals,” that hide in plain sight. And there’s a good reason. Our language originates from a nation of sailors. England’s global empire was built on, and maintained by, the strength of its navy and commercial shipping industry — naturally the jargon of that foundational trade came to dominate the language.

Hundreds of years and a Revolutionary War later (up yours, Charles Lord Cornwallis!), we Americans have built a language on baseball. Three strikes and you’re out. Home run. At least three different pitch types — fastball, curveball, screwball — have distinct non-sporting connotations these days.

I barely remember a time before I knew the ins and outs of baseball, and I suspect that most of you, reading this specialized website for baseball enthusiasts, have similar experiences. But even Americans who are indifferent to or mostly ignorant of the national pastime tend to know the basics just by osmosis. Read the rest of this entry »


Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week, August 30

Rafael Suanes-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. I’m going to keep the introduction short and sweet today so I can get back to my once-annual guilty pleasure: spending all day watching the US Open. But while I’m going full Jimmy Butler, plenty of baseball is happening, so I’ve got my eyes on that as well. You couldn’t watch a game this week without seeing something spectacular. We’ve got great baserunning, awful baserunning, and phenomenal catches. We’ve got teams misunderstanding risk and reward, and GMs touching hot stoves over and over again. It’s a great week to watch baseball, because it always is. Shout out to Zach Lowe of ESPN as always for the column idea, and one programming note: Five Things will be off next Friday. Let’s get to the baseball!

1. Anthony Volpe’s Disruptive Speed
Another year, another below-average season with the bat for the Yankees shortstop. That’s turning him into a lightning rod for controversy, because he’s a type of player who often gets overlooked (defense and speed) playing for a team where players often get overrated. The combination of the two leads to some confusing opinions. “He’s a good player who will make fewer All-Star teams than you think because defensive value is consistently underappreciated” isn’t exactly a strong argument if you’re talking to an acquaintance at a sports bar.

One thing that everyone can agree on, though: After he reaches base, Anthony Volpe is a problem. I tuned into Monday’s Nationals-Yankees game to see Dylan Crews in the majors and to watch Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, but I ended up just marveling at Volpe for a lot of the afternoon. He got on base three times (that’s the hard part for him, to be clear) and tilted the entire defense each time. He wasn’t even going on this play, and his vault lead still dragged Ildemaro Vargas out of position:

I’m not quite sure how to assign value for that play. The ball found a hole there, but DJ LeMahieu could just as easily have hit the ball straight to Vargas. I’m not saying that we need an advanced statistical reckoning about the value of a runner bluffing a fielder into motion, but that doesn’t change how cool it is to watch Volpe spook good veteran infielders just by standing around and bouncing.

Some of his baserunning value is of the straightforward, look-at-this-fast-human-being variety. You don’t need to hit the ball very deep to drive him home from third:

Some of the value is effort-based. Volpe’s always thinking about an extra base. Even when he hits a clean single, he’s got eyes on the play. An innocuous outfield bobble? He’ll take the base, thank you very much:

Of course, if you show someone taking a bouncing lead in the first GIF, you have to show them stealing a base in the fourth: Call it Volpe’s Run. That double led to a pitching change, and after two looks at Joe La Sorsa’s delivery, Volpe helped himself to third base:

Not every game is like this, but most of his times on base are. He’s never content to go station to station. His instincts are finely tuned, his speed blazing. I’m rooting for Volpe to improve at the plate, and it’s for selfish reasons: I love to watch great baserunning, and I want to see him get more chances to do it.

2. Whatever the Opposite of That Is

Oh Washington. The Nats are near the top of my watch list right now. Their assortment of young offensive standouts makes for fun games, and now that Crews has debuted, the top of their lineup looks legitimately excellent. You can see the future of the team even before they’re ready to contend, and that’s just cool. They might even be good already – they won the series against the Yankees this week, with Crews hitting his first big league homer in the deciding game. But uh, they’re not quite ready for prime time yet. Take a look at this laser beam double:

Boy, it sure looks fun to pour on the runs when you’re already winning. Wait, I misspoke. Take a look at this long fielder’s choice:

Somehow, Joey Gallo didn’t score on a jog on that one. He slammed on the brakes at third base and realized he couldn’t make it home. Then he got hung out to dry because everyone else in the play kept running like it was a clear double (it was). What a goof! That meant the only question was whether he’d be able to hold the rundown long enough to let everyone advance a base. The answer was a resounding yes – to everyone other than Juan Yepez:

I think his brain just short circuited there. He was standing on third with Gallo completely caught in a rundown. All you have to do to finish the play is stand still. But for whatever reason, he started side-shuffling in retreat toward second, another base currently occupied by a runner (!). While Jazz Chisholm Jr. tagged Gallo out, Yepez was busy hanging José Tena out to dry. Famously, you can’t have two runners on the same base. The rest of the play was academic:

I feel bad hanging Yepez out to dry, because some clearer communication would have made this play a run-scoring double. First, Gallo was overly cautious tagging up on the deep drive to center. Then, he got bamboozled. Watch the base coach hold Yepez, only for Gallo to see the sign and think it was intended for him:

Just a disaster all around. I can’t get enough of the Gameday description: “José Tena singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Aaron Judge. Juan Yepez to 3rd. José Tena lines into a double play, center fielder Aaron Judge to shortstop Anthony Volpe to catcher Austin Wells to first baseman DJ LeMahieu to catcher Austin Wells to third baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to second baseman Gleyber Torres. Joey Gallo out at home. Juan Yepez to 3rd. José Tena out at 2nd. Two Outs.”

Ah, yes, just your typical 8-6-2-3-2-5-4 double play. The Nationals are a lot of fun to watch – even when it’s at their expense.

3. We Get It, Rays

The whole never-trade-with-Tampa-Bay bit is overdone. The Rays lose plenty of trades. They win their fair share too, of course, but they are high volume operators in a business full of uncertainty. Sometimes, you get Isaac Paredes for almost nothing. Sometimes, you get Jonny DeLuca. When you churn your roster to the extent that they do, you can’t win them all, and that’s fine. But the Cardinals? Yeah, they should definitely not trade with the Rays.

First, in 2018, they sent Tommy Pham to Tampa Bay in exchange for some depth prospects, and Pham racked up 8 WAR in the next year and a half with the Rays. Then, before the 2020 season, the Cardinals swapped Randy Arozarena for Matthew Liberatore; Randy became the face of the postseason, and Libby turned into a long reliever. The most recent deal might not be the most damaging, but it’s an apt capper to a transaction trilogy.

Dylan Carlson was supposed to be the next big thing in St. Louis, but that ship had sailed long before the Cardinals jettisoned him at the deadline this year. His offensive game just broke down out of nowhere over the last two years, and he played himself out of St. Louis even as the team floundered for outfield depth this year. He had a 50 wRC+ in a part-time role when the team decided it was time to move on.

That’s fine, guys need changes of scenery all the time. But trading him to the Rays, of all teams, felt a little on the nose. The reliever they got back, Shawn Armstrong, is a perfectly good bullpen option. He made 11 appearances for the Redbirds and compiled a 2.84 ERA (2.78 FIP), a solid month’s work. But I’m using the past tense because they designated him for assignment earlier this week, hoping another team would pick up the balance of his contract and save them $350,000 or so. They’ve made a similar move with Pham, whom they also acquired at the deadline, since then. In Armstrong’s case, they also did it because he’d pitched two days in a row and they needed another fresh arm on the active roster; it was a messy situation all around.

We have their postseason odds at 1.1% after a desultory August, and they likely aren’t losing much of that value by moving on from Armstrong. It’s the signaling of it all, though: They traded for the guy, got exactly what they wanted from him, and still couldn’t keep him around for two months. Meanwhile, Carlson looks like a reasonable major leaguer again. He hasn’t been a world beater by any means, but he’s hitting the ball hard more frequently in a semi-platoon role that takes advantage of his ability to hit lefties. He already has three homers as a Ray after none all year as a Cardinal.

Carlson had to go, because something wasn’t working in St. Louis. Armstrong was a perfectly reasonable return, and he did exactly what the team hoped for when the Cardinals acquired him. The optics, though! They traded yet another pretty good outfielder who didn’t fit into the puzzle in St. Louis. Tampa Bay has two years to get the most out of him. As is customary, none of the players the Rays sent back to Missouri moved the needle. For appearances’ sake, if nothing else, the Cardinals can’t keep making these trades.

4. Outrageous Robberies

It feels weird that Jackson Chourio, a five-tool superstar with blazing footspeed, doesn’t play center. It seems like a knock on him, almost. Sure, this guy’s a prodigy, but he can’t handle the tough defensive position that you might expect him to play given his talent. Except, that’s not quite right. Why would you play him in center field when you currently have Spider-Man patrolling the grass? I mean…

Oh my goodness. I don’t even want to hear about catch probability on this one, because the difficulty of this play is the part where he gets over the wall in deep center. This isn’t one of those “robberies” where the fielder grazes the wall with his back and everyone celebrates. Blake Perkins can do those just fine – he has four robberies this year, and they weren’t all this hard – but he can also go the extra mile. He went all the way up and over to get this one:

That’s an 8-foot wall, so he probably got to the ball 9 or so feet in the air. He had to cover a ton of ground before getting there; 101 feet from his initial position, to be precise. He took a great route, which gave him time to decelerate and time the jump, but the ball kept carrying. In the end, he had to parkour up the wall a little bit to get enough height:

What more can I say? You can’t do it any better than that. Perkins reacted like he was shocked by his own play:

So no sweat, Jackson. You’re a pretty good outfielder too; you just can’t climb walls quite so nimbly. There’s no shame in second place when first place looks like that.

5. Getting by With a Little Help

Austin Riley is on the IL right now, and 2024 has been a down year for him. That’s largely an offensive issue, though his defense isn’t quite up to previous years’ standards, either. That said, he can still turn an absolute gem out there. Take a look at this beauty from two weeks ago:

That’s the area where he’s improved the most. His arm is below average for third base, so he compensates by getting his feet planted and putting his entire body into the throw. That ball had to travel forever, and to be fair, it two-hopped Matt Olson, but that’s an accurate ball given where he caught it and how quickly he had to let it go. That’s very nice, but watch Jo Adell at the bag. What is he doing?!? That isn’t how you’re supposed to run out a bang-bang play. If he went straight in, he’d beat the throw comfortably. Instead, he curled his way into an out.

In his mind, I’m sure that ball was a double right out of the box. That’s reasonable! Look at where Riley made the play:

Riley’s plant foot ended up all the way into the grass in foul territory. Not many baseballs get fielded there, and Adell hit that one on a line, so when he started out of the box, he was surely considering his options in regards to second base. He came out of the box looking down the line and taking a direct, rather than rounded, route. But as you can see from the high angle replay, he started to bend his path to cut the bag and head for second, right around the same time that Riley rose and fired:

The closeup of Adell is definitely a bad look:

But take another look at those last two shots and you’ll get a better idea of what happened. Adell probably couldn’t see the ball in the corner cleanly. There was a lot of traffic: baserunners, umpires, Riley himself, the pitcher, and so on. About halfway down the baseline, he looked away from the play to pick up first base coach Bo Porter, exactly what you should do when you can’t find the ball on your own. But Porter just plain missed it. He was pinwheeling Adell toward second, imploring him to arc out for extra speed. He clearly thought the ball was in the outfield and that Adell going wide could give him a shot at an extra base.

I’d put more blame on Porter than on Adell in this situation, but there’s blame to go around for both. I’d give credit to Riley, too, of course. Base coaches and baserunners make mistakes sometimes, and they aren’t always punished by outstanding defensive plays like that. But this is an unforgivable mistake given the game situation.

Adell’s run was far less important than the two in front of him. If there was any question at all about his being safe or not, any question about whether Riley had fielded it, the correct play was to book it to first and completely forget about the double. Reaching first safely is worth more than a run: the runner scoring from third plus the first and third situation that would’ve result from it. Teams have scored 0.52 runs after first and third with two outs this year, and 0.59 runs after second and third with two outs. Meaning, if Adell had taken a straight line path, the Angels would’ve scored a run and had that 0.52 on top of it, so making an out at first base cost them an expected 1.52 runs. Advancing to second would have gained them another 0.07 expected runs, but only if that runner on third scored, which didn’t happen because Adell was out at first. They would’ve needed to successfully advance to second 96 times out of 100 to make the math work there. It’s worse than that, though: Going from a one-run lead to a two-run lead is worth astronomically more than stepping up from two to three. Take that into account, and we’re looking at a play where you’d need to be right 98 times out of 100.

The Angels mistook playing hard for playing smart. The winning baseball play there is to ensure the run. It didn’t end up costing them, but it could have. They never scored again, and the Braves put plenty of traffic on the bases the rest of the way. The funny thing is, I’m sure that Adell will get knocked for not hustling on this play, and I don’t think that’s what went wrong. He and Porter just got greedy aiming for a hustle double when the right choice was to nit it up (play extremely conservatively, for the non-poker-players out there). It’s a strange way to make a mistake – but it’s definitely still a mistake.


Jacob Young Goes to Find Some Better Wheels

Rafael Suanes-USA TODAY Sports

Every spectator sport has its own tradeoffs between watching on TV and going to a game in person. And while there are some that can only be truly appreciated live, I personally think television does a pretty good job of portraying baseball at its best. This is a game of inches, and inches can be hard to perceive from the cheap seats.

One exception is exceptional center field defense. By the time the camera angle turns around on a fly ball, the outfielders have already covered dozens of feet in their pursuit of the baseball. To appreciate the speed and timing required to play this position well, you really have to see it live.

There aren’t many guys who can really go out and get it. There definitely aren’t 30 who can hit well enough to stick in a major league lineup every day. Most center fielders, therefore, fall into two camps: Good hitters who can kind of hang but should probably be in a corner, and the genuine article. Read the rest of this entry »


Top of the Order: The Teams With Problems … At the Top of the Order

John Jones-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.

As a massive roster construction and player usage wonk, I probably spend more time than anyone looking at lineups and bullpen usage, especially for someone who’s not in a single fantasy baseball league. My latest focus has been on the incredulity with which some teams construct their lineups, specifically the Yankees’ continuing to bat Alex Verdugo leadoff. But for as much as some Yankees fans may want to believe that lineup construction is a failing of their manager specifically, this problem isn’t limited to one team.

To be clear, putting together a perfectly ordered lineup is not the most important part of a manager’s job, and more than just the Yankees, Guardians, and Nationals run with questionable batting orders, but few things irk fans more than poorly constructed lineups. So today, let’s focus on the lineup-construction woes of these three teams, because their issues represent crucial spots at [insert Rick Dalton pointing meme here] … the top of the order:

The Yankees’ Leadoff Spot

No team has gotten less production from its leadoff spot than the Royals, but Yankees leadoff batters have been downright dreadful in their own right (80 wRC+).

Whereas the Royals’ woes there can be pinned on mostly one guy (Maikel Garcia, who’s batted first in 96 of the team’s 132 games), the Yankees have given four players significant run there: 76 starts for Anthony Volpe, 17 each for Verdugo and Gleyber Torres, and 10 for Ben Rice.

Of those four, only Rice has been above average batting first, with his 133 wRC+ in that spot buoyed by his three-homer game against the Red Sox in early July.

There’s also Volpe and Torres, neither of whom has taken to the leadoff spot well. Both players have been below league-average hitters overall this season — Volpe’s wRC+ is at 94, Torres’ 88 — but they’ve been even worse hitting leadoff. Volpe has an 83 wRC+ batting first; Torres’ leadoff wRC+ is 59. That’s more small sample funkiness than anything, but it seems that, at least for the time being, the Yankees are better off having the two of them bat lower in the order.

Verdugo, as mentioned in the intro, has been the guy lately, leading off in each of the Yankees’ last six games, including against three fellow lefties. In that small sample he’s hit just .240/.310/.280, giving him a 77 wRC+ in his 17 games in the leadoff spot, even worse than his overall season line.

While there’s really nothing redeeming for Verdugo himself out of that spot, the Yankees have managed to win when he’s there regardless; New York is 12-5 when he leads off. And since Verdugo started hitting mostly leadoff on July 26, his wRC+ (including in other spots) is 106, 16 points better than his 87 mark for the season. The Yankees have gone 12-6 in that time, and Verdugo has led off in 14 of those 18 games. So I don’t necessarily blame Boone for rolling with him, but it’s not like Verdugo is lighting the world on fire batting first. Rearranging the order shouldn’t be out of the question.

Aaron Judge wouldn’t get first-inning intentional walks batting leadoff (at least, I don’t think so), and he’s taken just fine to batting first in the past, with a gaudy .352/.466/.711 line across his 35 starts as the leadoff man. Juan Soto has led off just twice in his career (one start as a rookie in 2018 and another in ’21), but his OBP-heavy approach would certainly play well there. Still, the Yankees are vying for the best record in baseball this season because Soto and Judge have dominated for them batting second and third, respectively, all year, and I can understand why Boone wouldn’t want to change that up. That said, why not move current cleanup batter Austin Wells up to the top spot?

As long as we’re talking about not moving hitters away from where they’re doing well, we have to acknowledge how good Wells has been since his first game in the cleanup spot on July 20. Including a couple pinch-hit appearances and three games hitting fifth against lefties, Wells has hit .341/.404/.524 (160 wRC+) since then.

Even just at a glance, Wells looks like a great candidate to bat leadoff, with a .347 OBP and 12% walk rate giving him ample opportunity to reach base ahead of Soto and Judge. Zooming into more recent games, though, he looks even better: Since the start of June, well before he began hitting fourth, his OBP is .382. He’s walking about as frequently, but over the past two and a half months, he’s having much more success on the balls he puts in play (.336 BABIP, compared to .238 through the end of May). Wells seems to enjoy hitting cleanup, for what it’s worth, even though his hot stretch began well before that:

“[Hitting cleanup has] actually helped me,” Wells told the reporters. “Getting to watch Soto and Judge before me allows me to see a lot of pitches up close and gives me a lot of confidence to have a quality at-bat and try to put a good swing on a good pitch. For me, I welcomed it and enjoyed it.” But knowing that Wells has been hitting well in different lineup spots for months now, he shouldn’t have to be anchored there.

Hitting a catcher leadoff may not be traditional, but I’d argue it’s the best option for the Yankees and may even give Judge better protection hitting behind him in the form of Giancarlo Stanton, who came off the IL nine days after Wells began cleaning up.

All of these machinations underscore the unfortunate loss of Jazz Chisholm Jr., whose excellent beginning to his Yankees career has been halted by a UCL injury. If he’s able to return this season, he could be another leadoff option if Boone wants more dynamism than Wells, Verdugo, Volpe, or Torres atop the lineup. At the time of the trade, Boone seemed to like the idea of Jazz in the middle of the lineup.

The depth that Chisholm provided in his handful of games as a Yankee was obvious, and his is a tough loss to paper over, but that doesn’t change the issues I have with how the Yankees lineups are being constructed, with or without him. Yes, the Yankees are winning again after their abysmal month-and-a-half skid, and they might not want to switch things up too much while things are going well, but that doesn’t change the fact that they should be hitting their best four batters — Judge, Soto, Stanton, and Wells — in the top four lineup spots.

The Guardians’ Second Spot

Stephen Vogt has done a fantastic job managing the Guardians this year, to be clear. I watch a lot of their games, and the rookie manager really knows how to get the most out of his bench and bullpen; he pinch-hits aggressively to get the platoon advantage and presides over the league’s best bullpen by ERA. Where there’s room for improvement, though, is in writing the initial lineup card.

Cleveland is getting the fourth-worst production out of its two-hole hitters, but we can’t blame Vogt for not trying. Eight — count ’em, eight! — different players have started at least four games there, and the team’s most frequent no. 2 hitter, Andrés Giménez, hasn’t started there since June 26.

This comes with an even more straightforward solution than the Yankees’ leadoff woes: Bat your best hitter second. For the Guardians, that means moving José Ramírez up from third to second. That may just create further issues lower down the lineup — Josh Naylor would probably move up to third in this scenario — but the key words there are “lower down.” Wouldn’t you rather have Ramírez hitting rather than left in the on-deck circle in a key spot? David Fry can mash lefties and makes perfect sense to hit fourth in that scenario, and big Jhonkensy Noel is hitting well against everyone to start his major league career and is certainly formidable enough for the cleanup spot. If Vogt doesn’t want to mess with his three-four duo of Ramírez and Naylor, Noel could also fit batting second too, even if he’s more of your prototypical cleanup-hitting masher.

The Nationals’ Cleanup Spot

Of the lineup spot/team combos I highlighted in my initial tweet, the Nationals actually fare best, with a group of cleanup batters that ranks 23rd in baseball.

So this is more anecdotal and just an opportunity for me to vent about my displeasure with Dave Martinez’s lineups, which have lately included hitting Keibert Ruiz fourth in seven of his last nine starts, even as the switch-hitter has a 72 wRC+ with no real advantage from either side of the plate. His 80 wRC+ in 13 games as a cleanup hitter isn’t much better, and batting someone who is 20% worse than league average — who hits a ton of ground balls and doesn’t have much pop — in a key run production spot just defies logic. Over the last two games, Martinez has finally moved Ruiz down to sixth, and the catcher has responded well there so far; he hit two home runs last night’s game, which the Nats lost 13-3. Hopefully, Martinez doesn’t use that as a reason to move Ruiz back to batting fourth, a role for which he is not well suited. Instead, Ruiz should remain in the six-hole, because Washington isn’t lacking for quality clean candidates.

The obvious man for the job is rookie James Wood, who surely is more fearsome to opposing pitchers than is Ruiz. Just as Joey Meneses hit cleanup basically up until he was sent down to the minors, Martinez stuck far too long with a struggling bat right in the middle of things. Rookies Wood and Andrés Chaparro should be anchoring things instead as the Nats work to develop their next winning team.