I worry that Jackson Merrill’s incredible rookie season has been appropriately recognized but underexamined. For any rookie to put up 5.3 WAR and finish in the top 10 in MVP voting is incredible; for a kid who was 20 years old on Opening Day and learning to play center field on the job, it’s extraordinary.

As impressive as that one-line summary is, Paul Skenes (and to a lesser extent Jackson Chourio) sucked up a lot of the shine that would have accompanied such a performance in most seasons. Shine can be hard to come by for a player on a West Coast non-Dodgers team that’s already got plenty of stars to promote.

So I found myself, in the dead of winter, contemplating what comes after the abstract for Merrill. Specifically, whether a certain nit is worth picking. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the final team this year is the San Diego Padres.

Batters

After an extremely disappointing 2023 with Juan Soto in tow, the Padres bounced back to punch above their weight without him in 2024, thus giving less analytically inclined observers ample ammunition to reach spectacularly wrong conclusions about cause and effect. Losing Soto didn’t help the Padres, but a phenomenally successful move to the rotation for Michael King, a rebound season from Fernando Tatis Jr., and a stunning rookie campaign from Jackson Merrill did a lot to make up for his absence. (It also helped that they didn’t underperform their Pythagorean record by 10 wins like they did in 2023.) Read the rest of this entry »

On August 18 in Colorado, Ha-Seong Kim led off first base, then dived back to beat a pickoff attempt. He tore the labrum in his right shoulder, and that was the last time we saw him play in 2024. After a failed rehab attempt, Kim underwent surgery in October, and he won’t be ready to play again until sometime between April and June. Just as uncertain: Where exactly Kim will be suiting up when he returns. There’s no doubt about his skill. Over the past four years, Kim has spent time at second, short, and third, and neither DRS nor FRV has ever rated him as below average at any of those spots. He needed a year to adjust on offense after arriving from the KBO in 2021, but over the past three seasons, he’s run a 106 wRC+. That ranks 13th among shortstops, and over the same period, his 10.5 WAR ranks 11th.

Kim entered free agency after both he and the Padres declined their ends of a mutual option, and he came in at ninth on our Top 50 Free Agents. According to the projections, he’ll command a four- or five-year deal with an AAV in the neighborhood of $19 million. However, the shoulder injury could cost him as much as half of the 2025 season, and it makes for a tough needle to thread. He’s got to sign with a team that needs a solid infielder, but not badly enough to need one right away. Moreover, a shoulder injury is especially scary for Kim, whose arm strength is an important part of his overall value and who already possesses below-average power at the plate. For that reason, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Kim get a pillow contract: Ben Clemens proposed two years with an opt-out. Back in November, Mark Feinsand reported that Kim had generated “lots of interest,” and wrote about the possibility that he’d be among the first free agents off the board. However, it’s now late January, and if you cruise through our Depth Charts, you’ll notice that there just don’t seem to be many good landing spots for Kim. Let us begin our litanies. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Fernando Rodney is a man of many hats, most of them slightly askew. Over the course of a 17-year major league career, the Dominican-born reliever showed off his signature style while pitching for 11 different teams, and that’s not even counting his minor league, independent, winter league, or international stops. During his time, he notched 327 saves (19th all-time), made three All-Star teams, and pitched in two World Series, earning a ring with the 2019 Washington Nationals. In the process, he gave the hearts of his managers plenty of workouts as his command came and went, forcing him to work his way out of jams. But when it all came together for Rodney — as it did in 2012, when he posted a microscopic 0.60 ERA while saving 48 games for the Rays — he was a sight to behold.

Rodney’s crooked hat was just one of his famous quirks. He also shot an imaginary arrow into the sky after closing games, most famously upon recording the final out for the Dominican Republic in the 2013 World Baseball Classic championship game.

Read the rest of this entry »

Rickey Henderson had something to offer everyone. He was a Bay Area icon who spent more than half his career wearing the green and gold of the Oakland Athletics, yet he was traded away twice, and spent time with eight other teams scattered from Boston to San Diego, all of them viewing him as the missing piece in their quest for a playoff spot. For fans of a throwback version of baseball that emphasized speed and stolen bases, “The Man of Steal” put up numbers that eclipsed the single-season and career records of Lou Brock and Ty Cobb. To those who viewed baseball through the new-fangled lens of sabermetrics, he was the platonic ideal of a leadoff hitter, an on-base machine who developed considerable power. To critics — including some opponents — he was a showboat as well as a malcontent who complained about being underpaid and wouldn’t take the field due to minor injuries. To admirers, he was baseball’s most electrifying player, a fierce competitor, flamboyant entertainer, and inner-circle Hall of Famer. After a 25-year major league career full of broken records (not to mention the fourth-highest total of games played, ahem), Henderson spent his age-45 and -46 seasons wowing fans in independent leagues, hoping for one last shot at the majors.

It never came, but Henderson’s résumé could have hardly been more complete. A 10-time All-Star, two-time world champion, an MVP and Gold Glove winner, he collected 3,055 hits and set the career records for stolen bases (1,406), runs scored (2,295), and walks (2,190); the last was eclipsed by Barry Bonds three years later, though Henderson still has more unintentional walks (2,129). He also holds the single-season record for stolen bases (130), as well as the single-season and career records for caught stealing (42 and 335, respectively).

“If you could split him in two, you’d have two Hall of Famers. The greatest base stealer of all time, the greatest power/speed combination of all time (except maybe Barry Bonds), the greatest leadoff man of all time,” wrote Bill James for The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract in 2001. “Without exaggerating one inch, you could find fifty Hall of Famers who, all taken together, don’t own as many records, and as many important records, as Rickey Henderson.” Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Even as an amateur, Ian Kinsler spent most of his career in someone else’s shadow. At Canyon Del Oro High School in Tucson, Arizona — where he played on two state champion teams — and then at Central Arizona Junior College, he played alongside players who were picked much higher in the draft. After transferring to Arizona State, he lost the starting shortstop job to Dustin Pedroia, who had initially moved to second base to accommodate his arrival. With the Rangers, for whom he starred from 2006–13, he was a vital cog on two pennant winners but took a back seat to MVP Josh Hamilton, future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltré, and perennial All-Star shortstop Michael Young. Even after being dealt to the Tigers, he drew less attention than Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, or Max Scherzer.

Particularly in the developmental phase of his career, those slights and oversights left Kinsler with a chip on his shoulder, but also a drive to improve — and improve he did. He starred at his third collegiate stop, the University of Missouri, helped the Rangers emerge as an American League powerhouse while making three All-Star teams, added another All-Star selection in Detroit and won two belated but well-earned Gold Gloves. His 48 leadoff home runs ranks sixth all-time. Twice he combined 30 homers and 30 steals in the same season, making him one of just 16 players with repeat membership in the 30-30 club. For the 2007–16 period, he ranked among the game’s most valuable players by WAR via a combination of excellent defense, very good baserunning, and above-average hitting. Read the rest of this entry »

The Cleveland Guardians are a pretty tightfisted organization. They spend infrequently, frugally, and deliberately. So I was amused when, some three weeks ago, they jumped to re-sign backup catcher Austin Hedges to a one-year, $4 million contract. That’s roughly 4% of what the Guardians spent on player payroll in total this past season — and on a backup catcher?

Now, Hedges is one of the league’s best defenders, at the position where defense is of the utmost performance. And by all accounts he’s the best clubhouse guy since Spanky from The Little Rascals. But he’s the worst hitter in the league. That’s not an exaggeration; Hedges hasn’t posted a wRC+ over 50 since 2018, and in his past two seasons he hasn’t broken 25.

Since 2019, Hedges is hitting .171/.234/.273. Of the 364 players who have taken 1,000 or more plate appearances over that time, Hedges is dead last in wRC+ by a huge margin. Jackie Bradley Jr. is in second-to-last place with a wRC+ of 67; Hedges is at 39. (Which speaks to how far you can get in baseball if you’re an elite defender and everyone likes you.) Read the rest of this entry »

Direct links to applications (please see job details below):

Full Stack Developer, Baseball Systems
Data Engineer, Baseball Systems

Full Stack Developer, Baseball Systems

DEPARTMENT: Baseball Systems
REPORTS TO: VP, Baseball Systems
STATUS: Full-Time|Exempt

San Diego Padres Commitment:
The San Diego Padres are committed to creating a diverse and inclusive environment for our employees. We strive to create an environment for everyone by including perspectives from backgrounds that vary by race, ethnicity, religion, gender, age, disability, sexual orientation, veteran status, and national origin.

If you are not sure you’re 100% qualified but are up for the challenge – we want you to apply. We believe skills are transferable and passion for our mission goes a long way.

Your role as a Full Stack Developer, Baseball Systems:
You will design, develop, and maintain our internal web applications to support a wide range of baseball operations (including Front Office, Scouting, Player Development and Major League Operations) with the goal of ultimately building a winning team on the field.

All the responsibilities we will trust you with:

• Design, build, code review, and push new features to our internal web application
• Collaborate with other developers, analysts, and staff from other baseball-related departments to gain an understanding of their needs and build the software features required to best enable and support them
• Construct and maintain data pipelines that bring data from external baseball information vendors into our own system
• Develop creative solutions for displaying and visualizing baseball information to our end users

Your areas of knowledge and expertise that matter most:

• Experience designing and building professional web applications
• Solid understanding of programming fundamentals and experience with one or more coding languages (such as Python or Javascript)
• Strong understanding of front-end web technology (HTML, CSS)
• Proven experience with modern database technologies and proficiency writing SQL
• Experience working with code versioning management systems like Git
• Strong problem-solving skills and attention to detail, with the ability to analyze and debug complex software issues
• Ability to communicate with non-technical users to understand their roles and requirements and propose appropriate solutions
• Proficient computer skills including experience with MS Office products such as Word, Excel, Outlook, etc., and general knowledge of basic office equipment including copier, laser printer, telephone, and computer
• Possess strong communication skills, both written and verbal, and effectively work well with others in a collaborative, respectful manner
• Exceptional time management and organizational skills with capacity to handle high volumes of detailed work, multi-task and manage projects on strict deadlines
• Maintain professional demeanor with a high degree of discretion, integrity, and accountability
• Maintain consistent, punctual, and reliable attendance

You will be required to meet the following:

• Must be at least 18 years of age by the start of employment
• 4-year Bachelor’s Degree in Computer Science or related field strongly preferred
• Knowledge of development frameworks like Django or Flask, and Javascript frameworks like Angular, React, or Vue strongly preferred
• Prior experience with AWS cloud services preferred
• Passion for baseball and understanding of baseball statistics and analytics
• Fluent in another language popular among baseball players, such as Spanish, Japanese, or Korean, a plus
• Able to work flexible hours including evenings, weekends, holidays and extended hours as dictated by the baseball calendar
• Able to travel as needed
• Minimum physical requirements: able to travel to and gain access to various areas of the ballpark for prolonged periods of time during games and events; able to lift and transport up to 25 pounds
• As a condition of employment, you must successfully complete all post-offer, pre-employment requirements, including but not limited to a background check 

Salary and additional compensation:
Per the California pay transparency law, the base salary range for this full-time position is $100,000 to $120,000. As a candidate for this position, your salary and related elements of compensation will be contingent upon your work experience, education, job-related skills and any other factors the San Diego Padres considers relevant to the hiring decision for this position.

In addition to the base salary, the Padres believe in providing a very competitive and generous compensation and benefits package for its employees. Benefits include, but are not limited to: Medical, Dental, Vision, 401(k) with employer match + automatic company Safe Harbor contribution, Basic Life Insurance (with option to purchase Supplemental Life Insurance), Pet Insurance, generous paid time off (PTO) and holiday program, paid employee parking, onsite barista service, employer provided game tickets to home games, onsite experiences, ballpark discounts on food and retail, work from home Fridays (during the off-season and when team is on the road), smart casual dress code and so much more! All benefits are subject to eligibility requirements and the terms of official plan documents which may be modified or amended at any given time.

The San Diego Padres are an Equal Opportunity Employer.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

Data Engineer, Baseball Systems

DEPARTMENT: Baseball Systems
REPORTS TO: VP, Baseball Systems
STATUS: Full-Time|Exempt

San Diego Padres Commitment:
The San Diego Padres are committed to creating a diverse and inclusive environment for our employees. We strive to create an environment for everyone by including perspectives from backgrounds that vary by race, ethnicity, religion, gender, age, disability, sexual orientation, veteran status, and national origin.

If you are not sure you’re 100% qualified but are up for the challenge – we want you to apply. We believe skills are transferable and passion for our mission goes a long way.

Your role as a Data Engineer:
You will help to design, develop, and maintain large data pipelines to support a wide range of baseball operations (including Front Office, Scouting, Player Development and Major League Operations) with the goal of ultimately building a winning team on the field.

All the responsibilities we will trust you with:

• Assist in the building and maintaining of our internal data model of play-by-play and player-tracking data and the pipelines necessary to populate it
• Transform data in meaningful ways to ensure the data is reliable, clean, and easily accessible by developers and analysts
• Develop auditing SQL queries and quality-check systems for ensuring the data has all of the attributes listed above
• Construct and maintain data pipelines that bring data from external baseball information vendors into our own system
• Innovate solutions for optimizing these processes to improve performance and scalability

Your areas of knowledge and expertise that matter most:

• Experience designing and building professional databases and data warehouses
• Knowledge of database architecture, design patterns, and best practices to ensure the best system performance and long-term maintainability
• Strong proficiency in writing SQL and understanding the intricacies of how queries work
• Experience working with code versioning management systems like Git
• Strong problem-solving skills and attention to detail, with the ability to analyze and debug complex software issues
• Ability to communicate with non-technical users to understand their roles and requirements and propose appropriate solutions
• Proficient computer skills including experience with MS Office products such as Word, Excel, Outlook, etc., and general knowledge of basic office equipment including copier, laser printer, telephone, and computer
• Possess strong communication skills, both written and verbal, and effectively work well with others in a collaborative, respectful manner
• Exceptional time management and organizational skills with capacity to handle high volumes of detailed work, multi-task and manage projects on strict deadlines
• Maintain professional demeanor with a high degree of discretion, integrity, and accountability
• Maintain consistent, punctual, and reliable attendance

You will be required to meet the following:

• Must be at least 18 years of age by the start of employment
• 4-year Bachelor’s Degree in Computer Science or related field strongly preferred
• Prior experience with AWS cloud services like Redshift, Glue, RDS (or Azure/GCP equivalents) strongly preferred
• Proven proficiency in Python as to be able to write scripts to manipulate data strongly preferred
• Familiarity with Apache Spark preferred
• Passion for baseball and understanding of baseball statistics and analytics
• Able to work flexible hours including evenings, weekends, holidays and extended hours as dictated by the baseball calendar
• Able to travel as needed
• Minimum physical requirements: able to travel to and gain access to various areas of the ballpark for prolonged periods of time during games and events; able to lift and transport up to 25 pounds
• As a condition of employment, you must successfully complete all post-offer, pre-employment requirements, including but not limited to a background check 

Salary and additional compensation:
Per the California pay transparency law, the base salary range for this full-time position is $100,000 – $120,000. As a candidate for this position, your salary and related elements of compensation will be contingent upon your work experience, education, job-related skills and any other factors the San Diego Padres considers relevant to the hiring decision for this position.

In addition to the base salary, the Padres believe in providing a very competitive and generous compensation and benefits package for its employees. Benefits include, but are not limited to: Medical, Dental, Vision, 401(k) with employer match + automatic company Safe Harbor contribution, Basic Life Insurance (with option to purchase Supplemental Life Insurance), Pet Insurance, generous paid time off (PTO) and holiday program, paid employee parking, onsite barista service, employer provided game tickets to home games, onsite experiences, ballpark discounts on food and retail, work from home Fridays (during the off-season and when team is on the road), smart casual dress code and so much more! All benefits are subject to eligibility requirements and the terms of official plan documents which may be modified or amended at any given time.

The San Diego Padres are an Equal Opportunity Employer.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the San Diego Padres.

Mark Loretta was a solid hitter over 15 big league seasons, and he was especially good in 2003 and 2004. Over that two-year span, the right-handed-hitting second baseman slashed .325/.382/.469 with 75 doubles, 29 home runs, and a 129 wRC+ with the San Diego Padres. Contact was one of his strong suits. The Northwestern University product had a 7.9% strikeout rate to go with an 8.2% walk rate in 2003-04, numbers largely in line with his 9.2% and 8.5% career marks.

His overall production was comparably modest. Loretta consistently put up high batting averages – they ranged between .280 and .335 during his 11 full seasons — but he went deep just 76 times and finished with a 100 wRC+. Those numbers came over seven-plus seasons with the Milwaukee Brewers, three with the Padres, two-plus with the Houston Astros, and one each with the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers. Your prototypical “professional hitter,” Loretta debuted in 1995 and played his last game in 2009.

Now a special assistant with San Diego, Loretta sat down to talk hitting when the Padres played at Fenway Park in late June.

———

David Laurila: Looking back, what style of hitter were you, and did that change over the course of your career?

Mark Loretta: “That’s a good question. I would say that I was developed and came up as [someone who hit] inside the ball, hit the ball up the middle, hit it the other way, hit it where it’s pitched. I was very contact-oriented. I didn’t really sit on pitches or sell out for fastballs, I mainly liked to see the ball get deep.

“About halfway through my career I made a concerted effort to learn to pull the ball better, and more often. I think that’s when my career sort of took off. I was able to get to keep that contact-hitter, hit-it-where-it’s-pitched approach, but also handle the ball inside much better.

“My power — more doubles, more home runs — came when I pulled the ball. For a lot of my career, pitchers would pound me in, pound me in, because I hit the ball well the other way. I made a couple of adjustments with my swing and started looking a little bit more in when I was in hitter’s counts. I would lay off the ball middle-away when it was 2-0 or 3-1.”

Laurila: How much has hitting changed since you played? Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of a series concerning the 2025 Classic Baseball Era Committee ballot, covering long-retired players, managers, executives, and umpires whose candidacies will be voted upon on December 8. First written for FanGraphs in 2019, it has been updated with additional research. For an introduction to the ballot, see here, and for an introduction to JAWS, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Read the rest of this entry »