Archive for Teams

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Houston Astros farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and (further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Other Lists
NL West (ARI, COL, LAD, SD, SF)
AL Central (CHW, CLE, DET, KC, MIN)
NL Central (CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL, StL)
NL East (ATL, MIA, NYM, PHI, WAS)
AL East (BAL, BOS, NYY, TB, TOR)
NL West (LAA)

60 FV Prospects

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded strikeout and walk rates of 25% and 9%, respectively, at Double-A.

Scouting Report
The story of Martes’s acquisition is well told. The effects of the deal are obviously still resonating atop Houston’s prospect list, but perhaps more significant is the way that deal changed the way complex-level ball is scouted. Since Martes was unearthed in the GCL, more and more scouts are being assigned to rookie ball in Florida and Arizona. Some clubs have scout(s) here every year, others tailor their coverage based on where they are on the competitive spectrum, with rebuilding clubs more likely to have scouts here than ones who, if they make a trade, are hunting big leaguers instead of teenage lottery tickets. So while Martes has a chance to make a significant impact on an Astros club poised to compete for their division and, maybe, a World Series, the ripples through the industry created by his acquisition are arguably more significant. Okay, on to Martes as a prospect…

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With the switch from the standard PITCHf/x pitch-tracking system to Trackman, a few missteps are to be expected. Dave Cameron, for example, recently pointed out that we have to be careful about reporting velocity right now. Jeff Zimmerman gave us a way to convert old velocities into today’s reality, and Tom Tango offered up way to use current readings to approximate velocities as they were calculated by the previous methodology. For those interested in the simplest possible method, it appears as though subtracting three-quarters of a mile per hour from a pitcher’s reported velocity arrives at roughly the same figure as the previous system would have produced.

But that doesn’t account for the situation in its entirety. If we look at what Brandon Finnegan did in his first (excellent) start, we’ll notice that the movement numbers are also a little off right now. It’s enough to want to throw your hands up and just emote, as I did on the latest episode of our Sleeper and The Bust podcast.

It’s okay to express frustration. It’s cathartic and release is good. Breathe deeply through the nose.

But we also need to pick ourselves up and dust ourselves off. Finnegan did not, as the leaderboards suggest, just record the ninth-most ride on a fastball that we’ve witnessed over the last 15 years. That’s not what was so impressive about the movement and velocities of his pitches in his 2017 debut. But discovering what was impressive can help us better navigate the suddenly unsteady waters of pitcher analysis.

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In 2015, Chris Rusin made 22 starts for the Colorado Rockies in what was a lost season for the ballclub. They finished in last place for the third time in four seasons, and their attendance dropped to its lowest mark in eight seasons. The club possessed a promising cache of prospects. Regardless, one couldn’t be blamed for feeling pessimistic about the Rockies’ future.

Fast forward to today, and Rusin is still with the team. Instead of working in a starting capacity, though, he’s been moved to the bullpen. And rather than occupying a large role in Colorado’s rotation, he’s not even a sure thing to serve as the club’s sixth or seventh starter.

This isn’t a product of Rusin’s failings, however. He was actually pretty good last year, recording an 83 xFIP- and 76 ERA- in 84 innings of starting and relief work. Rather, the change in Rusin’s role is emblematic of a new development in the organizaion — namely, that the Rockies suddenly have a great deal of pitching depth, both in the rotation and the bullpen.

Let’s start with the most recent starting pitcher to make his major-league debut for the Rockies, Antonio Senzatela. After showing well in 2015 in his first trip through the California League, Senzatela had a very trying 2016 season. First, he missed time due to a shoulder injury. Then, his mother died from cancer back home in his native Venezuela. At the time, the Rockies used his shoulder injury as cover to let him go home and spend time with his family, which isn’t only an understandable but commendable move by the organization. But for those tasked with determining how Senzatela would stack up as a prospect heading into this season, it certainly created uncertainty, as any season-ending shoulder injury normally would. He’s still not very projectable, but he might have snuck on to the back end of Rockies’ team lists had people known why he really missed the latter portion of the season.

Fast forward to 2017, and Senzatela’s major-league debut was certainly promising. Despite hitting Keon Broxton in the face (Broxton fortunately seems to have come away from the HBP unharmed), he was otherwise brilliant on the day, striking out six batters through five scoreless innings. The result was a Game Score of 66 — and a Game Score v2 of 66 — which is pretty good for a Rockies pitcher making his major-league debut. Take a look:

Now, some of this is damning with faint praise. The Rockies haven’t had a ton of good starting pitchers, and even fewer who turned in good debuts. But it’s better than the alternative, which would have been getting rocked. Senzatela’s outing is tied for third in terms of Game Score, and by itself in sixth place according to Game Score V 2.0. Not too shabby.

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Perhaps the best athlete, to date, is joining the revolution.

Said athlete is Yasiel Puig and said revolution is that of the fly-ball. It seems more and more batters are pushing against traditional coaching orthodoxy and endeavoring to lift the ball in the air.

Exhibit A from Thursday afternoon at Dodger Stadium:

According to MLB.com’s Austin Laymance Puig has been working with teammate Justin Turner on adding loft to his swing. And Puig is off to a tremendous start this season, having hit three home runs in four games.

“What I think about is putting the ball in the air,” Puig said via interpreter, “or else I’m going to have no money in my pocket.”

Turner, of course, is one of the key agents of the fly-ball revolution. If not the protagonist, he’s at least played an important supporting role. After a mediocre start to his career, Turner sought the help of outside hitting instructor Doug Latta, who believes that the ideal swing path is one that launches balls into the air. Turner’s mechanical adjustments turned him into a star. And now Turner is approaching players whom he believes can benefit from getting more balls into the air. The Puig-Turner relationship could perhaps be another example of the power of word of mouth, the power of peers to push a movement towards a tipping point.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen could charitably be described as not particularly great. A more straightforward talker would call the group pretty lousy. We currently have them projected as the very worst group of relievers in Major League Baseball.

The closer is 40 years old and has some of the most significant command problems of any pitcher in the league. The best 2016 ERA of the three primary middle relievers belongs to Andrew Chafin, at 6.75. Tom Wilhelmsen (6.80) and J.J. Hoover (13.50!) round out the trio of reclamation projects being asked to hold leads, and while single-season ERA is of course a terrible way to evaluate a pitcher’s quality, it says something about the Diamondbacks bullpen quality that these are the guys they are asking to pitch in important situations early in the season. Nothing wrong with betting on reclamation projects with better stuff than results, but usually you don’t have to bet on them to hold a tie game in the 8th inning on Opening Day.

But three games into the season, there are reasons to think the Diamondbacks might have two good relief pitchers in their bullpen. And it’s not any of the guys we just mentioned.

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A couple weeks ago, Zach Buchanan wrote an article with the following headline:

Can Michael Lorenzen be a two-way player?

Spring training is full of headlines that begin with words like “can” or “will” and that end with a question mark. The regular season is for settling. It’s still that early part of the regular season where people will watch a game between the Phillies and the Reds on purpose, and, because I was doing that, myself, let me give you an update, by switching some words and punctuation.

Michael Lorenzen can be a two-way player.

It’s happening. And I can say that because it happened.

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This wasn’t a pleasant offseason for Andrew McCutchen. The face of the franchise’s availability on the trade market was well known and, at times this winter, a trade seemed inevitable. About four months ago, in an Orlando hotel, McCutchen told former teammate Michael McKenry — they were together for an event — that he thought he’d just been traded.

Stephen Nesbitt recently chronicled the experience for the Post-Gazette.

Writes Nesbitt:

McKenry says he sensed something was the matter.

“I think I just got traded to the Nationals,” McCutchen said.

McKenry blinked and sputtered back, “Well, holy schnikes.”

Of course, McCutchen was not traded to the Nationals. Perhaps he would have been had Adam Eaton not been dealt there. We’ll never know.

As if being made available in a trade weren’t a sufficient blow to the ego of the former MVP, the Pirates then asked him McCutchen to move off of center field, not only a position of some status but also the only position he had played since debuting in the majors. Imagine the Yankees publicly dangling Derek Jeter later in his career and then ask him to move off shortstop, to, say, second base. You don’t see stars treated in such a manner every day.

But for the Pirates to compete in the NL Central they must perhaps operate with cold-hearted, ruthless efficiency. And the club seemed to be in need of moving McCutchen somewhere. He posted an MLB-worst -28 Defensive Runs Saved last season as a center fielder. McCutchen has declined defensively in each year since 2013, and that decline accelerated in his shocking age-29 campaign last season.

(McCutchen was hurt by the Pirates’ shallower outfield defensive alignment, which back-fired last year when the club was unable to produce as many ground balls and shallow flies as in the past. Still, McCutchen, by the eye test and analytics, has been a liability in center field.)

On the surface, the move to right seemed curious since McCutchen’s throwing arm has long been thought to be his weakest tool. On competitive throws, McCutchen averaged 85.8 mph last season, a middling number and the lowest velocity among the Pirates’ starting outfielders. Right fielders, of course, typically require e a strong arm to reduce the number of first-to-third advancements by baserunners. Wrote former FanGraphs staffer August Fagerstrom last April after digging through some Baseball Info Solutions data:

In 97 instances where a base-runner was deemed to have an opportunity to take an extra base on a ball hit to McCutchen, the runner did so 70 times. That 72% advancement rate was the second-worst on record by a center fielder, dating back to 2006. Only Denard Span‘s 75% advancement rate in 2009 was worse.

But if the prospect of hiding declining range takes precedent over hiding below-average and declining arm strength, then right field in PNC Park is the ideal place to do it, as PNC Park has the largest left field in the game. Mike Petriello presented the case for such a move back in November.

Sure, McCutchen’s arm wouldn’t be a great fit for right, but that may matter less than you think, because PNC Park’s left-field power alley is so big (420 to the deepest part) compared to right (320 down the line, 375 in the power alley) that unlike many other fields, it’s a lot harder to play left than right. That’s a big part of why Marte, a fantastic defender, has stayed there. Either way, the average National League team allowed 73 singles to center with a man on first (i.e., potential first-to-third opportunities), and 80 to right. It’s just not that big of a difference.

After all, a strong outfield arm is nice. Being able to prevent extra-base hits — well, that’s far better. If the Pirates do want to shift McCutchen over, they may be on to something.

Petriello also noted how McCutchen is more effective going to his right, which should play in moving toward the larger space of right-center compared to down the line.

Of course, the move to right had been, until Opening Day, made only in theory and had yet to be put into practice in a regular-season game. And McCutchen received quite the test to open the season in Fenway Park’s spacious and awkward right field.

So how’s it going so far?

McCutchen passed his first test Wednesday when he recorded his first outfield assist as a right fielder, throwing out Sandy Leon on an 89 mph throw to the plate.

Now, it’s true that McCutchen also played some right field in the spring and in the World Baseball Classic, where he did make some off-the-mark throws. But his work with his arm on Wednesday — albeit against a catcher on the bases — is encouraging.

And McCutchen also made a nice catch in going back on the ball, a weakness for him as a defender in center, to rob Mitch Moreland of an extra-base hit.

And with the Pirates planning to go away from their ground-ball philosophy to a degree, as David Laurila reported — and with McCutchen likely playing a deeper relative position in the field than he did a year ago —
maybe he can bounce back defensively in a move down the spectrum.

Torii Hunter made the full time move from center to right in 2011 after declining in center. In his first two years in right field he posted +7 and +12 DRS numbers in 2011 and 2012.

Hey, McCutchen is off to a good start:

While McCutchen could still perhaps be sent to a new address at the trade deadline, depending on the Pirates’ performance, or after the season — the Pirates hold a 2018 club option — perhaps he has found a new home in the field.

If you’ve spent any time thinking about Michael Pineda, you’ve probably spent some time trying to figure out what’s wrong with Michael Pineda. He strikes out a ton of guys, walks very few, and posts FIPs better than league average. He also gives up a lot of home runs, has trouble with runners on base, and can’t seem to keep his ERA anywhere near league average.

Pineda’s season debut yesterday against Tampa Bay appeared only to offer more of the same. Despite recording a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 6:0 against 18 batters, Pineda ultimately allowed four runs in just 3.2 innings (box). While one game isn’t going to tell us much, yesterday’s performance didn’t do anything to suggest that this year’s version of Pineda is going to differ much from last year’s.

We didn’t always write articles trying to figure out what was wrong with Michael Pineda. Back in 2014, when Pineda was just returning from a series of injuries that kept him out for most of three seasons, Jeff Sullivan praised Pineda for his aggressiveness and improved command despite a somewhat lengthy layoff. The following spring, Eno Sarris examined what appeared to be a nasty changeup that could serve him well. Jeff Sullivan followed up a month later to discuss the possibility that Pineda was benefiting from increased velocity while also managing to locate his fastball and change in the right spots. That piece was written right after Pineda struck out 16 Baltimore Orioles without yielding a walk. For the rest of the season, Pineda put up an okay 3.92 FIP and a bad 5.02 ERA, which he essentially duplicated last in 2016.

So last season, Eno took a look at Pineda, writing two pieces in one day. The first highlighted Pineda’s command, which maybe was inferior to what Pineda had exhibited previously. The second noted Pineda’s problems with runners on base, which could have been a product of pitching from the stretch. Sarris also hypothesized that Pineda might be too afraid of conceding walks with runners on. Finally, this past offseason, Nick Stellini stepped up, noting that Pineda had tended to throw a lot of fastballs in the middle of the zone (which got hit really hard) and many of his sliders out of the zone (which were balls). On their own, both Eno’s and Nick’s ideas have merits. Let’s combine their hypotheses and see what happens.

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It’s not a question of whether the Astros are good. There’s near-unanimous agreement that the Astros are good, and the only people who disagree haven’t been paying attention. It’s more a question of how good the Astros really are. Are they as good as a wild-card contender? Are they as good as a runaway division favorite? I don’t know! Nobody does. But like any team, the Astros could be improved. And over the past several months, rumors circled around a similar theme: The Astros could use an ace.

Reports linked them to Chris Archer. Reports linked them — and continue to link them! — to Jose Quintana. Reports linked them to Chris Sale. And so on, and so on. A great starting pitcher could improve any team, but the idea implied has been that the Astros pitching staff could be some kind of vulnerability. The offensive depth is there. The group of pitchers? More question marks.

The Astros haven’t pulled the trigger on a pitching trade. They still could, and any number of things could go wrong. But the team has steadfastly believed its pitching is just fine. In the early going, there have been four positive signs in particular. Or, if not that, four positive reminders. Let’s run through some big reasons why the Astros probably count as one of the best teams around.

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About a month ago, Travis Sawchik and I posted back-to-back articles about Dylan Bundy and how he could make or break the Orioles’ season. I didn’t exactly say that he was the most important player on the roster not named Machado or Britton, but I heavily implied it in a wink-wink nudge-nudge manner. In Bundy, the Orioles have a former prodigy who could realize his potential in 2017.

He took the first step towards that on Wednesday night.

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