Today, we have a two-fer of Killers lists covering a couple of key defensive positions, specifically the hot corner and behind the plate. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 9.5%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. That may suggest that some of these teams will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because their performance at that spot thus far is worth a look.

Cubs

Following the free agent departure of Willson Contreras, last year the catching corps of Yan Gomes, Tucker Barnhart, and rookie Miguel Amaya ranked 21st in WAR. Heading into this season, it made at least some sense on paper to have the 25-year-old Amaya — a former Top 100 prospect who lost significant development time to the pandemic and November 2021 Tommy John surgery — get more playing time while moving the 37-year-old Gomes, whose framing metrics had declined, into a backup role. Unfortunately, both have been terrible. Amaya has hit just .201/.266/.288 (59 wRC+) with average-ish defense (good blocking, poor throwing) en route to -0.1 WAR. Gomes was even worse both at the plate (.154/.179/.242, 15 wRC+) and behind it (-5 DRS, -4 FRV, -3.9 FRM) before getting released on June 21, replaced by Tomás Nido, who had just been released by the Mets. Nido has hit .202/.229/.331 (57 wRC+) overall but is just 4-for-41 as a Cub. Defensively, he’s got a mixed bag of metrics, though he’s been a whisker above average framing-wise. Read the rest of this entry »

Last Thursday, a Q&A titled “Chris Bassitt Embraces the Art of Pitching” ran here at FanGraphs. In it, the 35-year-old Toronto Blue Jays right-hander discussed his diverse repertoire — “eight or nine pitches,” he told me — and how he uses them to attack hitters. Both stylistically and variety-wise, Bassitt is a close approximation of a pitcher who will represent the Kansas City Royals in tonight’s All-Star Game. That would be Seth Lugo.

The Royals were at Fenway Park last weekend, and with Boston being my home base, I took the opportunity to talk to the 34-year-old right-hander. I expected a conversation similar to the one I’d had with Bassitt, and I was by no means mistaken. Lugo, who boasts a 2.48 ERA and a 3.31 FIP this season, very much embraces the art of pitching.

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David Laurila: How have you developed as a pitcher over the years?

Seth Lugo: “I would say that I’ve learned from failure. Coming up through the minors is different than pitching in the big leagues. Once you get to the big leagues you start to notice a pattern with how your mistakes are happening, whether it’s a pitch, sequences, or game situations. I think that learning from my mistakes has been the biggest thing for me.”

Laurila: You used to be known primarily for your curveball, and now you have a varied repertoire. How has your adding of pitches evolved?

Lugo: “Well, as a reliever I would usually just stick with my best two pitches and show one or two more, whether it be [against] a righty or a lefty, a changeup or a slider. When I was in San Diego last year, the pitching coach, Ruben Niebla, was talking about sweeper sliders. I’d never heard the term sweeper before. I didn’t really know what it meant. We started messing with some grips. He told me, ‘You can spin it good. You can spin some other stuff, so it doesn’t have to be just one pitch you’re spinning so well.’ That’s kind of how that came along.

“Growing up, I was always messing around with balls, whether it was a Whiffle Ball or a baseball. I was throwing pitches, just having fun. I’ve always had the ability to pick up a new pitch pretty quickly, so I realized that I can throw more than just three or four pitches in a game. Right now it’s up to 10 or 11. I’m keeping the hitters off balance and recognizing their swing paths, trying to make an adjustment before they do.”

Laurila: What is your full repertoire right now?

Lugo: “Two-seam, four-seam, cutter, change, split-change, sweeper, slow sweeper, one that I call the carry sweeper, slurve, curveball, and slider — a regular slider.”

Laurila: You’re basically Chris Bassitt…

Lugo: “I think I’ve got one or two more than him. I was also throwing a gyro sweeper earlier in the season — I haven’t thrown it in about four starts now — so then I had 12 pitches.”

Laurila: Gyro sweeper sounds counterintuitive…

Lugo: “Yeah. It’s like a one-seam gyro spin that catches. It’s a bigger horizontal break than a regular gyro slider. It’s not depth-y, but shoots to the left pretty good. A sweeper is going to have side spin. Gyros have bullet spin. A gyro sweeper is bullet spin, but with one seam… one seam that catches. A seam-shift gyro.”

Laurila: But you’re not actually throwing it now…

Lugo: “I’ll probably bring it back out. I was working through a couple of other things. Between that one and my slider they were starting to blend a little bit. But yeah, I’ll bring it back out one day.”

Laurila: How did you initially learn it?

Lugo: “I had someone reach out to me. He said that a lot of guys around the league are swinging and missing at gyro spin, and if you can find a way to get more sweeper action with gyro spin, that one’s pretty hard to hit. I think [Alec] Marsh throws a variation of that. Tinkering with a couple of grips, I found one that worked pretty good. But I kind of got away from it a little bit. I picked it up after a month, just this season, so I haven’t had a lot of time to work on it and find the consistency.”

Laurila: Who suggested the pitch?

Lugo: “A guy I know. I’ll leave it at that.”

Laurila: How many pitches did you have when you moved into a starting role last season?

Lugo: “In the offseason, I developed a different slider. I threw it for two months last year before I figured out the sweeper and the other pitches. It was like a slow slider, which I haven’t thrown since. So, it was two sliders, changeup, four-seam, sinker, curveball.”

Laurila: You’ve basically doubled the number of pitches you’re throwing…

Lugo: “In about a year, yeah. I was on the IL and that’s when I came up with a couple of pitches — in June, last year.”

Laurila: I assume you’ve used a lot of tech when developing pitches?

Lugo: “It’s actually more feel for me. Feel and just the horizontal and vertical movements. We’ve got the TrackMan. I don’t look at spin rates, really. I check on my curveball every once awhile, just to make sure it’s spinning like it should, but mostly it’s just horizontal and vertical movements that I look at.”

Laurila: Are you still throwing the same curveball?

Lugo: “Same curveball I’ve always had. I’ve just learned how to use other pitches off of it to make it perform better. My first couple years, with two strikes you were probably getting a curveball. That makes it easier to hit. Guys could eliminate pitches really easily. Now, having four or five pitches in their head when they get to two strikes makes the curveball perform even better.”

Laurila: Where do you think you’d be if you were still a reliever? Would you be as good as you are now?

Lugo: “Well, I wouldn’t have all of these pitches. I would say it would be similar to my career average. I would kind of be where I was.”

Laurila: With your ability to utilize a variety of pitches, starting seems like a natural fit.

Lugo: “Yeah. That and reading swings, and trying to get guys off certain pitches to save them for later in the game. Finding holes where I can go to them over and over. As a reliever, you’re only facing three or four guys, so they can be ambushing first pitch, or they could be taking to get a strike. It’s kind of a smaller game plan, tactic, to pitch as a reliever.

“As a starter, if a guy has a big hole you’re going to expose that hole. But if the guy is a pretty good hitter — he’s hard to get out — you’re going to show all of your pitches, and you’ve got to know where each of them fits. As I’m going over these hitters, we’re talking about where we’re going to throw each one. Some of them might not even be competitive, but I want them to look at it and think about it. I try to find a spot to throw every pitch, even if it’s a pitch they hit well. There is going to be somewhere they don’t hit it — it might be in the dirt — but we’re going to throw it.”

Laurila: You mentioned saving pitches. What is the value in not throwing something you know a hitter has a hard time handling?

Lugo: “So, let’s say it’s the four-hole hitter. This pitch is going get him out most every time — he’s got some weak contact on it — but he’s not going to swing and miss at it. There is no one on base and we’ve got a three-run lead. I’m not going to go straight to my best pitch to get him out; I’m going to save that for when there are two guys on and no outs. In a different situation, you pitch different. That also keeps it harder for guys to pick up my sequences.”

Laurila: Something I’ve asked a lot of pitchers is whether they view pitching as more of an art or as more of a science. I think I know what your answer would be…

Lugo: “It’s an art. I mean, science will help you. Like with anything, you can use science to make your techniques better. You can use it as a learning tool, but you can’t just plug it in. There are too many variables out there for it to work every time. Ultimately — at least to me — it’s not a science. It’s an art.”

Today, we turn our attention to the second base Killers. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 9.5%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin; as you can see by the table below, four of the six teams listed here project to receive more than a win from their current cast of second base options. Even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look, and the incumbent may no longer appear to be the best option.

Particularly in light of those projections, I don’t expect every team to go out and track down an upgrade before the July 30 deadline, though I’ll note that some of the players cited within for their poor performance are themselves change-of-scenery candidates; one team’s problem may be another team’s solution, albeit not necessarily an ideal one. Either way, I’m less concerned with those solutions – many of which have more moving parts involved than a single trade — than I am with the problems. Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are through Sunday.

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FanGraphs was at the Futures Game in Arlington on Saturday. In total, 16 pitchers appeared in the seven-inning game. The following are some quick notes on every pitcher who toed the rubber during All-Star weekend’s premier prospect event. Obviously one game isn’t enough on its own to move the needle significantly for any of these guys — they all have a large body of work that can better inform our evaluations — but it’s useful to see whose stuff ticks up when they’re in an environment like the Futures Game and get to let it eat in a shorter burst than they’re accustomed to. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the San Diego Padres. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the fourth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Josh Rojas has turned himself into a plus defender. My colleague Ben Clemens chronicled that advancement last month, citing the Mariners infielder’s improved ability to go to his left as a primary reason for his markedly-better metrics. Exactly what type of adjustments have allowed the 30-year-old third baseman to turn the proverbial corner with his glove? I happened to be in Cleveland when Seattle began a road series against the Guardians on the day Ben’s article ran, so was able to get the answer right from the horse’s mouth.

“It was a matter of adjusting what works best for me reacting to balls left and right,” Rojas told me. “It has to do with my preset. Not getting down too early, not getting down too late. Picking up contact points. Another thing that helps is knowing how the ball usually comes off guys’ bats when certain pitchers are throwing. There is constant communication between me, the pitching coaches, and Bone [infield coach Perry Hill] on what the plan is for the series.”

The preset is what I was most interested in, so I asked the erstwhile Arizona Diamondback — Rojas became a Mariner at last July’s trade deadline — if he could elaborate. Read the rest of this entry »

In a race for a playoff spot, every edge matters. Yet all too often, for reasons that extend beyond a player’s statistics, managers and general managers fail to make the moves that could improve their teams, allowing mediocre production to fester at the risk of smothering a club’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’ 2007 book, It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historical All-Star squad of ignominy, identifying players at each position whose performances had dragged their teams down in tight races: the Replacement-Level Killers. I’ve revisited the concept numerous times at multiple outlets and have adapted it at FanGraphs in an expanded format since 2018.

When it comes to defining replacement level play, we needn’t hew too closely to exactitude. Any team that’s gotten less than 0.6 WAR from a position to this point — prorating to 1.0 over a full season — is considered fair game. Sometimes, acceptable or even above-average defense (which may depend upon which metric one uses) coupled with total ineptitude on offense is enough to flag a team. Sometimes a club may be well ahead of replacement level but has lost a key contributor to injury; sometimes the reverse is true, but the team hasn’t yet climbed above that first-cut threshold. As with Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s definition of hardcore pornography, I know replacement level when I see it.

For this series, I’ll go around the diamond, pointing out the most egregious examples of potential Killers at each position among contenders, which I’ll define as teams that are above .500 or have Playoff Odds of at least 9.5%. That definition covers 20 teams, down from 22 last year. I’ll include the rest-of-season projections from our Depth Charts, and while I may mention potential trade targets, I’m less focused on these teams’ solutions than I am the problems, because hey, human nature. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. As MLB pauses for the All-Star break, I thought I’d pause for one of my own. Just like the league, I’d like to recognize the stars of my own personal baseball bubble. There’s a lot of overlap between the guys who populate Five Things most frequently and the best players in the game, but it’s not a complete overlap. You generally know what you’re getting with this column: some fun, fluky plays and players. Today, you’re just getting an aggregated version of that: the most fun I had in the first half of the year. And no, if you’re wondering, there are no Didn’t Likes this week, c’mon. As always, thanks to Zach Lowe for the idea for this format, which is just as exciting (to me) in baseball as it is in basketball.
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The Texas Rangers came into the season with every intention of competing for another World Series championship. While the team had a fairly low-key winter, the ZiPS projection system thought it would be legitimately competitive in the AL West, though not necessarily one of baseball’s top teams. Instead, with less than half the season’s slate of games remaining, Texas sits uncomfortably below .500 with the playoff math looking increasingly daunting.

When the season began, my understanding was the Rangers expected to struggle at times during the first half, especially in the rotation, and they were OK with that as long as they didn’t fall too far behind the other AL West contenders, the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners. The organization was comfortable letting Jordan Montgomery walk in free agency because it felt the team had enough punch in the lineup to remain in the division race long enough for at least some of its injured pitchers to get healthy and reinforce the roster, which would be as good as acquiring a starter in a deadline trade.

For about a month, this scenario seemed to be playing out. The Astros limped miserably out of the gate, and the Mariners didn’t do much better. The Rangers spent most of April leading the AL West, but they didn’t build enough of a cushion. That came back to bite them when Seattle caught fire and Houston turned its season around. Simultaneously, Texas went in the other direction. Since May 1, the Rangers offense has put up a 92 wRC+, and that’s with the benefit of Corey Seager mashing after his early slump (.286/.367/.563 in that span) and Wyatt Langford hitting way better since coming off the IL in late May (.285/.339/.464). With the 17th-ranked ERA and 24th-ranked FIP since the start of May, the pitching staff hasn’t exactly made up for the offensive shortfall.

As of Thursday morning, ZiPS has the Rangers with a 10% chance to make the playoffs, far short of their projected 56% odds coming into the season. The projections still see the AL West as a race, but mostly between the Astros and Mariners, with Texas assuming the role of the third-place underdog.

Of course, 10% isn’t zero, but the Rangers certainly have their work cut out for them. ZiPS currently assumes that, on average, the Rangers will be a .500 team the rest of the season. Let’s make a different assumption, that ZiPS is very wrong, and on average, they will be a .530 team from here on out. That still only boosts their playoff probability to 17.8%. Simply playing better is no longer enough, and there is unlikely to be any kind of reasonable deadline addition that would help them flip the script.

At the same time, Texas is still positioned well for a run in 2025, so there’s no need to blow the whole team up. Looking at just the main contributors under team control, ZiPS generally sees brighter days ahead next season.

ZiPS projects this group of players to win six or seven more games in 2025 than they’re projected to this season. (The win total for 2024 is a combination of the team’s season-to-date and rest-of season projections.) That’s an impressive number in most circumstances, but even more so for a rather old team; the offense is slightly older than league average and the pitching staff is the oldest in the majors. This group already has a good case for contention in 2025.

So if this year’s a longshot and 2025 looks better, what’s the winning argument for not retooling with a focus toward improving the roster for next season? That’s not rhetorical; I don’t have a good one (and feel free to make one in the comments that my cold-stricken brain couldn’t conjure). Again, the Rangers won the World Series last fall, and having that ring already earned ought to give the team some room to maneuver without angering the fanbase. Now, the Rangers won’t be able to snag prospects on the level of Jackson Holliday or James Wood for the players they’d be willing to trade, but in swaps for their players on expiring contracts — Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, David Robertson, Andrew Heaney, José Leclerc, Kirby Yates, and Michael Lorenzen — I would think they could at least get some talent that could help them in the future, even if you assume Scherzer sticks to his stated preference that he won’t waive his no-trade clause.

Dropping out of a race when you’re the defending champ is a tough thing to do psychologically. But the Rangers are in a bad place right now, and by throwing in the towel, they could improve their chances to contend for another title in 2025.

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fourth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »