Hensley Meulens wants Rockies hitters to mash. What he doesn’t want from them is an undisciplined two-strike approach. As much as “Bam-Bam” believes in damage, he’s a proponent of putting balls in play when the pitcher is in the driver’s seat. Colorado’s new hitting coach accentuated both aspects when I asked him about his philosophy during December’s Winter Meetings.

“Have a plan, get a good pitch, and take your A-swing,” said Meulens, who a month earlier had replaced Dave Magadan in the role. “That’s before two strikes. A lot of at-bats get to two strikes, but I want us to be able to do damage before we get to two strikes. Once you do get to two strikes, you need to find a way to keep the line moving.”

Meulens went on to say that while many hitters can make that adjustment — Barry Bonds having choked up on the bat is an example — there are others who can’t. One is a slugger he worked with while serving as an assistant hitting coach with the New York Yankees.

“Certain hitters, you can’t change anything,” said Meulens. “They’ve got one swing. I coached Joey Gallo this past year. As much as you try to give Joey Gallo a two-strike approach, he’s got the one swing. He goes for the downs. That’s why he’s been in the big leagues, but if a player has the ability to keep an at-bat going and be productive with two strikes by making a little adjustment, I’m all for it. If they can’t do that, you have to live with what they bring. That’s how baseball works.” Read the rest of this entry »

The baseball season is only one day old, so it’s probably too early to draw any conclusions. The Reds will probably be bad. The Astros will probably be good. The Angels will probably snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and end up around .500 despite employing two of the best players on the planet. Other than those broad strokes, though, it’ll take us a little while to know much for certain.

With that stipulated, let’s make far too much of something that a player did, not even yesterday, but in spring training. That sounds like a fun way to start our year. Ryan McMahon is embarking on his seventh major league season (counting a cup of coffee in 2017). He’s a defensive standout, heir to Nolan Arenado as an elite Rockies third baseman. He sports a career 89 wRC+. He also hit a ball tremendously hard in spring training, so now it’s time to dream on him as a power threat, or at least an above-average offensive player.

The list of the hardest-hit balls in spring training is filled with hitters you’d expect to see. Giancarlo Stanton places both first and third. Oneil Cruz makes an appearance in the top 10. Jordan Walker, who ascended to the major leagues on the back of his raw power, is in the top five. Franmil Reyes and Franchy Cordero, both of whom have power to spare, place highly. Then there’s McMahon, who smashed a grounder at a shocking 117.8 mph, the second-hardest-hit batted ball that Statcast recorded all spring. Read the rest of this entry »

Last year, Andrés Giménez enjoyed quite a breakout season, helping to lessen the sting of the Francisco Lindor trade by emerging as one of the top second basemen in the game. He made his first All-Star team, won his first Gold Glove, and helped the Guardians win the AL Central for the first time since 2018. Now, the team has guaranteed that he’ll stick around for a good long while. On Tuesday, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Giménez has agreed to terms on a seven-year, $106.5 million extension that also includes an option for an eighth season.

The full details of the contract have not yet been reported, but the deal appears to cover the 2023-29 seasons, with a $4 million signing bonus and a $23 million club option for 2030 that comes with a $2.5 million buyout. Via as-yet-unspecified escalators, that option can increase to $24 million (note that Passan has reported the option year as 2031, meaning that the guaranteed portion of the deal wouldn’t begin until next season). At its maximum, the extension could pay Giménez $128 million over eight years, his ages 24-31 seasons.

The guaranteed portion of the contract is the second-largest in team history after José Ramírez’s five-year, $124 million extension signed last year. The extension is the latest manifestation of what has practically become a Cleveland tradition, one that traces back to the rebirth of the franchise. In the mid-1990s, general manager John Hart pioneered the practice of signing young stars such as Sandy Alomar Jr., Carlos Baerga, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, and Omar Vizquel to extensions that ran through at least some of their arbitration years and kept them in the fold when they would have hit free agency. It’s a strategy that enabled the team to save millions of dollars while maintaining a competitive nucleus, and one that has become popular with several other teams, most notably the Braves (for whom Hart served as president of baseball operations from late 2014 to late ’17). Long after Hart left Cleveland, successors Mark Shapiro and Chris Antonetti continued to sign players such as Ramírez, Michael Brantley, Travis Hafner, Jason Kipnis, Corey Kluber, Carlos Santana, and Grady Sizemore to deals along those lines.

That’s an incomplete list of players who went this route, but it never included Lindor, who went year-to-year during his arbitration years until the team decided it couldn’t afford him at a full market price. On January 7, 2021, Lindor and Carlos Carrasco were traded to the Mets in exchange for the then-22-year-old Giménez, shortstop Amed Rosario, outfielder Isaiah Greene and righty Josh Wolf.

Giménez had hit an impressive .263/.333/.398 (105 wRC+) in 49 games with the Mets during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but he struggled in his first year with Cleveland, batting .218/.282/.351 (74 RC+) in 68 games sandwiched around a detour to Triple-A Columbus that lasted nearly three months. He did hit much better after returning (.245/.320/.382, 94 wRC+) than before (.179/.226/.308, 43 wRC+) even if he didn’t actually make better contact. As I noted last fall, he held his own after returning despite lacking a consistent approach at the plate. “Last year [2021] he’d deviate after like a bad game,” manager Terry Francona told the Akron Beakon Journal’s Ryan Lewis in May. “You’d have different stance, you have a leg kick you didn’t have, you get a toe-tap.”

Guardians hitting coaches Chris Valaika and Victor Rodriguez helped Giménez ditch the leg kick, which they felt was hindering his pitch recognition and his timing. He fared better against every major pitch type in 2022 than ’21, and overall batted .297/.371/.466 with 17 homers and 20 steals. His 140 wRC+ finished in a virtual tie with Rafael Devers and Carlos Correa for eighth in the AL (one point ahead of Ramírez) and among second basemen of either league trailed only Jose Altuve and Jeff McNeil. On the other side of the ball, Giménez’s 16 DRS, 9 OAA and 6.5 UZR each ranked second among all second basemen, and overall, his 6.1 WAR tied Xander Bogaerts for fifth in the AL, and among second basemen trailed only Altuve. That’s some fine company.

Giménez’s performance included a few areas of concern, notably a 40.8% chase rate, 6.1% walk rate, and Statcast contact numbers (87.8 mph average exit velocity, 6.2% barrel rate, 37.6% hard-hit rate) that placed only in the 29th–36th percentiles. Thanks in part to his 94th-percentile speed, he was nonetheless one of the majors’ most productive hitters on groundballs, ranking among the top half-dozen in both batting average and wRC+:

As noted last fall, hitters combined for a .235 AVG and 35 wRC+ on grounders; based on that, Giménez netted an extra 17 hits, without which he’d have finished with a .263 AVG and .433 SLG, much closer to his expected numbers.

While I do wonder about the sustainability of that aspect of his game, in all, that’s a pretty impressive showing for a 23-year-old. In fact, it’s one of the best age-23 seasons of the past decade:

Again, fine company even given the presence of a few players who have flamed out; Bellinger and Bryant have both dealt with a series of injuries, while Puig’s decline has been an ugly mixture of on- and off-field issues. The book isn’t closed on any of the above players, but several are Cooperstown bound. It’s worth noting that the two other Cleveland players on the list have turned out quite well, and that Giménez’s 140 wRC+ is actually higher than all of the other non-first base infielders — even those who out-homered him by a significant margin.

Because Giménez spent so long in the minors in 2021, he’s accrued only two years and 106 days of major league service time, 66 short of reaching three full seasons (which would have made him eligible for free agency after the 2025 season) and 22 short of becoming an arbitration-eligible Super Two. Thus, his contract for 2023 was among the 28 the team recently renewed; most of those salaries haven’t even been published yet, but Giménez was only set to make $739,400. The $4 million signing bonus bumps him up to something closer to what a star-caliber player in his first year of arbitration eligibility might make. For example, Bichette, who’s heading into his age-25 season with 3.063 years of service time, is making $2.85 million in salary plus a $3.25 million signing bonus as part of his three-year, $33.6 million extension, while the Padres’ Jake Cronenworth, who has exactly three years of service time, is making $4.225 million coming off back-to-back 4.1-WAR seasons. Had he reached three years, Giménez might be somewhere in that ballpark.

Via Dan Szymborski, here’s Giménez’s projection through 2030, the year with the club option:

Even with some regression to 4.5 WAR per year at his peak, the ZiPS contract projection for Giménez if he were a free agent comes to a whopping $287.2 million, which is more than Bogaerts received from the Padres as a 30-year-old free agent (and spread out over 11 years, at that). Even with the expected discounts for his arbitration years, Giménez projects to be worth $139.5 million through 2029, and $170.8 million through ’30; through that lens, this looks like a rather club-friendly deal. It’s not an out-and-out steal the way Ramírez’s five-year, $26 million deal for 2017-21 — over which the third baseman produced 28 WAR, made three All-Star teams and finished in the top three in AL MVP voting three times — turned out to be, but it’s clear that Giménez traded some risk for financial security. If he’s still even close to being a three-win player in 2030, he’ll stand to make tens of millions more, though he’s unlikely to approach the windfall he might have reaped if he’d spent all of 2021 in the majors and hit free agency after 2025, his age-26 season.

All of which is to say that this is A Very Guardians Deal, and while we can again bemoan the salary structure that prevents players short of six years of service time from getting anything approaching their full market value, it takes two sides to tango. And we shouldn’t be surprised if at least a couple more extensions follow in short order. Via The Athletic’s Zack Meisel, the team is in “advanced negotiations” with multiple players including Rosario, Triston McKenzie, Steven Kwan, and Trevor Stephan, hoping to complete extensions by Opening Day (Stephan’s is reportedly nearing completion). Meanwhile, Emmanuel Clase (five years, $20 million) and Myles Straw (five years, $25 million) signed such deals last spring, albeit at a scale much smaller than that of Giménez. If some of those extensions come though, they’ll probably increase the team’s payroll — estimated at around $90.7 million even with several of those aforementioned extension candidates’ salaries unknown — by a few million dollars. They’re still likely to rank among the bottom third of the 30 teams, even while contending for another AL Central title or at least a playoff spot. This approach has worked for the Guardians before, and at least in terms of establishing generational wealth for Giménez, it will work for him as well.

With Opening Day on the horizon, three teams are planning to enter the season with exclusively right-handed rotations: the Guardians, the Twins, and the White Sox. As I’m sure I don’t have to tell you, that’s not the only thing these clubs have in common; they’re also the three contenders for the AL Central crown. An all-righty rotation isn’t unheard of, but it is uncommon, and it’s particularly unusual to see three within the same division. Here’s how they each stack up:

Around this time last season, there were likewise three teams planning to deploy all-righty rotations: the Guardians, the Twins, and the Mets. The Mets, however, had lefty in David Peterson at Triple-A, and it was only a matter of time before they needed him. Indeed, he was called up two days into the season and made his first start a week later. As for the Guardians and Twins, they also had lefties waiting in the wings. Konnor Pilkington was the first man called up when Cleveland needed a sixth starter; Devin Smeltzer wasn’t the first call-up for Minnesota, but he was soon to follow.

This year, the White Sox have joined the all-righty ranks. In fact, they haven’t had a left-handed starter since releasing Dallas Keuchel last May. Meanwhile, the Guardians and Twins have more right-handed depth than last season. Pilkington is still around for Cleveland, but he had a poor showing this spring, and several right-handed prospects are moving their way up the depth chart. As for Minnesota, Smeltzer elected free agency in October, and every new starter the team acquired this offseason has been a righty. Read the rest of this entry »

Sean Hjelle has been turning heads this preseason and seems to have pitched his way into a major league job. Then again, Hjelle turns heads everywhere; the former Kentucky Wildcat is the tallest player in baseball, at 6-foot-11, leaving him tied with Jon Rauch as the tallest player in MLB history. Anytime a pitcher above 6-foot-6 or so gets extended major league run, there’s an assumption that with a big body comes big velocity. That might be entirely Randy Johnson’s fault; Rauch sat in the low 90s, and until the end of last season, Hjelle didn’t throw much harder.

But as as he told Alex Pavlovic of NBCSN Bay Area early in spring training, Hjelle had been able to tickle 96 or 97 for one adrenaline-fueled inning in his last appearance of the 2022 season. This winter, his goal was to hold that velocity deeper into games. How? Well, to quote legendary Giants fan Huey Lewis, by working out most every day and watching what he eats. And after almost two months of training camp, Hjelle can look back and see the fruits of his labor. Read the rest of this entry »

Christian Walker had to wait for an opportunity. Drafted as a first baseman by the Orioles out of the University of South Carolina in 2012, he came up through Baltimore’s system at the same time that Chris Davis was bashing home runs on a regular basis. Then he found himself with a team where the player ensconced at his position was even better: In 2017 and ’18, Walker was buried behind Paul Goldschmidt on the Diamondbacks’ depth chart. When he celebrated his 28th birthday in March 2019, he had all of 61 big league games under his belt.

Opportunity finally came that season — Goldschmidt was traded to the Cardinals over the winter — and Walker didn’t waste it. Displaying the plus power that has remained his calling card, he went deep 29 times and logged a .348 OBP and a .476 slugging percentage. He’s an even better hitter now, heading into the current campaign on the heels of a 2022 season that saw him go deep 36 times with a 122 wRC+.

More than opportunity was behind the slugger’s breakthrough. Six years ago, he began an evolution that has turned him what he is today: a bona fide hitting nerd. Walker discussed that transformation prior to a recent spring training game.

———

David Laurila: You had a breakthrough season in 2019. Was that mostly a matter of opportunity, or was it more about adjustments you’d made?

Christian Walker: “A little bit of both. Some of it was diving into the hitting side of things, the mechanics. I’m a tinkerer at heart, so it’s fun for me to think about new things and try to unlock something. But to be honest, it’s really about being surrounded by a great staff. They know where my head goes when I want to work on something and start asking questions. It’s good to have guys like [hitting coach] Damion Easley around to keep me competitive and less mechanical.

“That said, the whole conversion started in 2015 when I got introduced to a hitting guy back in Pennsylvania. Jon Walton is at Diamond Dreams Baseball Academy, and he’s shown me this whole other world of hitting. We grew up in similar baseball circles — I’m from just outside of Philly — and he really understands the data side of hitting. It’s helpful for me to have somebody to filter the helpful stuff from the getting-lost-in-the-weeds conversations.” Read the rest of this entry »

The Cardinals have put themselves in a bit of a bind. They take sustainability seriously, building to compete both now and tomorrow. They never rebuild, never go all in, and always balance the present and future responsibly. If your goal is to win forever, you have to think about more than just the next year when you make a decision. For all that focus on long-term planning, though, they have a lackluster rotation, and it’s slated to get a lot worse after this year.

Of St. Louis’ top five starting options, only one, Steven Matz, came into the spring under contract for 2024. That might not be a problem if there were a heaping helping of starting pitching prospects knocking on the door to the major league clubhouse, but there aren’t. Gordon Graceffo isn’t far off, and if you’re willing to do a lot of projecting, Tink Hence might be major league ready before too long, but the up-and-down fifth starters and swingmen with live arms that other teams use to bulk up their starting rotation in times of need don’t really exist here.

Now, the Cardinals have two starters under contract for 2024 after signing Miles Mikolas to a contract extension that will pay him $40 million for the 2024 and ’25 seasons, as Derrick Goold first reported. That doesn’t exactly create a complete 2024 starting rotation, but it’s twice as many pitchers as St. Louis had before last Friday. Bam, problem solved! Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about prospects who have (Jordan Walker, Anthony Volpe) and haven’t (Grayson Rodriguez, Brett Baty) made Opening Day rosters and MLB’s player-centric PSAs about the new rules, then complete their 2023 season preview series by discussing the Atlanta Braves (15:07) with Grant McAuley of 92.9 The Game, and the Colorado Rockies (53:50) with Danielle Allentuck of The Denver Gazette, plus a Past Blast from 1986 (1:26:07), trivia answers (1:30:00), a Stat Blast (1:31:34) about the biggest WAR gaps between Opening Day starters, the worst pitchers ever to start on Opening Day, and the best pitchers and hitters never to start on Opening Day, and a postscript (1:41:09).

Audio intro: Benny and A Million Shetland Ponies, “Effectively Wild Theme (Pedantic)”
Audio interstitial: Simon Waldram, “What Were You Thinking?”
Audio outro: Benny and A Million Shetland Ponies, “Effectively Wild Theme (Horny)”

Link to MLBTR on Volpe
Link to MLBTR on Walker
Link to Mains on Cardinals PECOTA
Link to MLBTR on Turang
Link to MLBTR on Baty/Vientos
Link to FG post on Vientos
Link to MLBTR on Rodriguez
Link to Elias on Rodriguez
Link to Ben on 2022 OD promotions
Link to Ben on 2022 debuts
Link to MLB rules PSA hub
Link to Snell/Anderson spot
Link to Vogelbach/Showalter spot
Link to Cranston spot
Link to FanGraphs playoff odds
Link to FG payroll breakdown
Link to Braves offseason tracker
Link to Braves depth chart
Link to MLB Pipeline rankings
Link to From The Diamond
Link to Rockies offseason tracker
Link to Rockies depth chart
Link to Sam’s Rockies essay
Link to article on hangover effect
Link to article on curing the hangover
Link to Sarris on McMahon
Link to Danielle’s author archive
Link to Past Blast source
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack
Link to Braves-Rockies trivia answers
Link to Stat Blast spreadsheet 1
Link to Stat Blast spreadsheet 2
Link to article about LBJ’s first pitch
Link to Brown/Cole source 1
Link to Brown/Cole source 2
Link to Brown/Cole source 3
Link to Ryan Nelson’s Twitter
Link to Woodward on changeups
Link to EW on seam-shifted wake
Link to Forbes valuations
Link to Mains on Forbes data

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Matt Duffy is in camp with the Kansas City Royals on a minor-league contract, and as is common for veteran players in his situation, he has multiple opt-out clauses. Whether he ends up exercising any of them remains to be seen. The 32-year-old infielder is on the bubble with days left before the start of the regular season, and even if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster, there is a chance that he would accept a Triple-A assignment with a call-up in mind. All Duffy knows for certain is that he wants to keep playing.

“I’ve kind of made the decision that they are going to have the rip the jersey off of me,” said Duffy, who has battled injuries throughout his seven big-league seasons. “If I were to call it a career at some point in the next five years, I would find myself saying, ‘Man, I wish I’d have played one more year.’ Life post-baseball is going to be so much longer than anything the grind can throw at me. At the end of the day, I really enjoy what this game does for me in terms of pushing me to learn something new.”

Duffy is 12-for-36 on the spring, and he can provide more-than-adequate defense at multiple positions. Assuming he can stay healthy, he can help a big-league team — be it the Royals or someone else — for the foreseeable future. Even so, he knows that the clock is ticking. While many players who are asked about their post-baseball plans deflect the question, Duffy is forthcoming on the subject. Read the rest of this entry »

Before I started at FanGraphs, most of my writing was about the Phillies. When I took this gig, I made a promise that I’d continue to write about my favorite team, joking that this was merely “one more place to gush about Rhys Hoskins.” I must admit, this isn’t how I hoped to fulfill that promise.

On Thursday afternoon, Hoskins was manning first in a Grapefruit League contest against the Tigers. It was a happy day for Philadelphia, with Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and J.T. Realmuto making their return from the World Baseball Classic. The Phillies were fielding what could have been their Opening Day lineup for the very first time. This wasn’t just any old Thursday in March; it was a chance to see how the reigning NL champs planned to defend their title.

Things got off to a promising start when Schwarber doubled and Hoskins drove him home in the bottom of the first. Woefully, the good feelings wouldn’t last for long. The following inning, Austin Meadows hit a high-bouncing grounder along the first-base line, and Hoskins turned to chase it into shallow right field. He nearly made the play, but the ball slipped out of his glove, like a scoop of ice cream falling from the top of the cone. As he moved to retrieve the ball, he took an awkward turn. One step later, and Hoskins was crumpled on the grass in pain:

It was immediately clear that something was wrong. Bailey Falter signaled for help from the dugout as Bryson Stott called for time. Every Phillie on the field came to check on their fallen teammate. Soon, the paramedics would cart him away. Read the rest of this entry »