On a per-plate-appearance basis, you can probably guess the top five second basemen from last season. Trea Turner leads the pack, at least if you count him as a second baseman. Marcus Semien is close behind. Brandon Lowe, Jose Altuve, and Jake Cronenworth round out the group, and it’s not a surprise to see any of them at the top of a list of excellent players. Number six might surprise you: it’s Tony Kemp, who quietly put together a star-level season in his second year in Oakland.

As Jay Jaffe noted last year, Kemp isn’t doing it with barrels. He didn’t end the year in the zero-barrel club, but it was a near thing; he managed all of three. He didn’t quite finish last in barrels per batted ball, but the company he kept on that list — he’s wedged between Nick Madrigal and Adam Frazier, with Tim Locastro and Nicky Lopez in close proximity — isn’t one known for its power. That’s hardly a surprise given Kemp’s short stature (he’s listed at 5’6” and 160 pounds), but the lack of power didn’t stop him from compiling a juicy 127 wRC+, third-best on a solid Oakland offense.

How did Kemp do it? Without putting the ball in play, mainly. His 13.1% walk rate was 20th among batters with 300 or more plate appearances, and no one who walked more than he did struck out less frequently than his 12.8% mark (Juan Soto was close at 14.2%, but he might be a robot sent from the future to break baseball, so that’s good company to keep). Read the rest of this entry »

Grayson Rodriguez continues to ascend. Ranked 30th last year, the 22-year-old right-hander in the Baltimore Orioles organization is No. 3 on our newly-released 2022 Top 100 Prospects list. Moreover, he’s the highest-ranked hurler. Blessed with a lethal arsenal of pitches, Rodriguez possesses, in the opinion of Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein, “the potential to be a No. 1 starter and Cy Young candidate.”

On the eve of last year’s Top 100 release, we ran an interview with Rodriguez that focused on his changeup/screwball. To augment this year’s ranking, we caught up to the fast-rising righty to discuss the developmental strides he’s made since last season, and to ask him what it feels like to be the top pitching prospect in the game.

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David Laurila: We talked 12 months ago. What’s changed since that time?

Grayson Rodriguez: “I would say the one thing I’m most proud of is that my average velocity has increased. When we last talked, the previous year’s average velo was 95.7 [mph]. This past season, I was able to get it up to 98.5. That [is], up until the last month of the season when it dropped a little bit; in September, it was 96.8. So, getting the average velocity up was big for me. I was working in the strike zone more often with that little extra velo.”

Laurila: How and why did your velocity go up? Read the rest of this entry »

Tuesday marks the 83rd day of the owner-initiated lockout. It still remains to be seen how long it will last, but whatever its length, we’re likely to see a whirlwind of a mini-offseason as soon as the league and the players come to terms on a new collective bargaining agreement. While that kind of thing is fun to cover — the week before the lockout was a thrilling frenzy — there’s still quite a lot for baseball to do. So let’s roll up our sleeves, lend a hand, and find some new homes for a few of the remaining free agents. The trick here is that they actually have to make at least a lick of sense for the team signing them — but just a lick.

We gave out a half-billion of fictional dollars to hitters last time, but our imaginations could use some pitching too, so let’s get cracking! Read the rest of this entry »

Picture this: Bases loaded, two outs, full count in a tie game. It’s the ultimate high-stakes situation, and isolated on the mound is the pitcher, left to fend for himself. He can’t mess up — not here, not in front of everyone. He does what only a pitcher can do, and that’s use the adrenaline pent up inside to his benefit. So on the next pitch, he fires off a 100-mph fastball, up and in. The opposing hitter swings… and misses. The crowd goes berserk. Inning over. Jam: escaped.

This is the stuff of legends. It’s a moment we’ve thought about at least once as a kid; there’s nothing quite like a bases-loaded escapade that captures the imagination. The cool thing, though? It’s that major league pitchers have been more than willing to live out this fantasy. In 2018, Sam Miller wrote about which instances produce a pitcher’s fastest fastball, and his conclusions are intuitive: when the pitcher is ahead, especially with two strikes, and when there’s two outs. Our favorite pitchers aren’t just strike-throwing robots; they’re also swayed by the heat of the moment, making them even more entertaining to watch.

Inspired, I started to look at data from last season. With two strikes, pitchers averaged 94.2 mph on their four-seamers. In all other counts, they averaged 93.5 mph, for a difference of 0.7 miles per hour. Not too dramatic, but across a large sample of pitchers, it’s significant nonetheless. It’s here I began to wonder: which pitchers in 2021 had the largest differences between their average four-seam velocity in two-strike counts and non–two-strike counts? Maybe you thought of Max Scherzer, who’s known for having a second, even third gear. He’s up there for sure, but not high enough. Because this is what the top five looks like:

Hey there, Shohei. Read the rest of this entry »

The Red Sox have upped the quality of their farm system in recent years, and Paul Toboni has played a key role in that ascent. Boston’s director of amateur scouting since September 2019 — he was assistant director for three years prior — the 32-year-old University of Notre Dame MBA has helped facilitate drafting players such as Marcelo Mayer and Nick Yorke. Originally hired by the Red Sox as an intern, Toboni became an area scout in 2015 before climbing up the ranks to his current position.

On the road scouting when this conversation took place, Toboni talked about the process itself, the philosophies that shape an organization’s decision-making, and some of the notable draftees the Red Sox have brought on board.

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David Laurila: Let’s start with the basics. What exactly does an amateur scout do?

Paul Toboni: “It depends on your responsibility. We have a number of area scouts across the country who are responsible for areas ranging in geographical size, and also in player density. There are a lot of players coming out of Southern California, so maybe we have two scouts there. We also have a scout covering Arkansas, Oklahoma, and all the way through North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas. An area scout’s job, really, is to be at the grassroots level and get to know these players really well. They talk to coaches, turn in reports, and come up with their lists.

“It flows upward from there, to our regional cross checkers. I think teams around the league are organized pretty similarly in that [the cross checkers] cover four or five area scout’s areas. From there it goes to national cross checkers, who are responsible for covering the whole country. Then it’s the front office.”

Laurila: What goes into the reports that scouts turn in? Read the rest of this entry »

Here’s a somewhat uncomfortable truth: The majority of rookies kind of stink. Everyone wants their team’s star prospects to take off as soon as they step foot onto a major league diamond, but the reality is that development takes time. Last season, for example, rookie hitters collectively put up a 87 wRC+, and looking at the past ten seasons, that figure has ranged from a low of 83 to a high of just 93. Not everyone hits the ground running.

Enter Brandon Marsh. His first 260 big league plate appearances resulted in a 86 wRC+ — pretty much average for a rookie. That can be interpreted as either a good or bad sign. On one hand, he performed like the typical rookie, and his prospect pedigree suggests room for growth. On the other hand, that isn’t a guarantee, and an 86 wRC+ is an 86 wRC+, no matter the context. This ambiguity could be partially why he hasn’t been at the center of prospect discourse. It’s not as if he shined like Wander Franco, and it’s not as if he bombed like Jarred Kelenic, whom we’re inclined to give the benefit of the doubt. A so-so debut isn’t one people remember.

But I’m here to argue that Marsh is one of the most interesting young hitters around, worthy of your utmost attention. And it all starts with a number one might consider a red flag: a .403 BABIP. Read the rest of this entry »

Mike Elias had a background in scouting and player development when he came to Baltimore in November 2018. The Orioles general manager and executive vice president broke into pro ball as a scout with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2007. Four years later, he was hired by Houston to serve as the club’s director of amateur scouting; in 2016, the Astros promoted the Yale University graduate to assistant GM and put him in charge of player development.

The challenges he inherited in Baltimore were daunting. Elias took over a team that had just lost 115 games — the most in franchise history. The Orioles’ divisional competition is comprised of the powerhouses of the American League East. The rebuild was going to be anything but easy. Moreover, it would take time, much to the chagrin of a dedicated fanbase.

But light is starting to appear at end of the tunnel. Under Elias’ guidance, the Orioles have built one of baseball’s best farm systems, with Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, D.L. Hall, Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson and Coby Mayo all featured on our forthcoming Top 100. Most notable are Rutschman and Rodriguez, who rank as the game’s top position player prospect and top pitching prospect, respectively.

As part of our Prospects Week interview series, Elias discussed the organization’s approach to scouting and player development.

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David Laurila: I’ve asked you about the relationship between scouting and player development in previous interviews, and I’ll do so again now. In what ways has that relationship changed?

Mike Elias: “It continues to meld. As the days and years go by — given how sophisticated player development is becoming — how easy it is for an organization to communicate with itself is an underrated factor. I joined professional baseball in 2007, so I was already in the internet age, but if you talk to people who were working in professional baseball in the ‘80s, ‘90s, and early 2000s, a lot of effort was put into staying in touch with your remote employees. They would use voicemail. So a lot of the practices and divisions between scouting and player development come out of an era when it was hard for everyone to stay in touch. That’s no longer the case. Read the rest of this entry »

Per the JAWS leaderboard, Adrián Beltré (4) and Scott Rolen (10) rank highest among third basemen not in the Hall of Fame. Beltré will almost certainly get the nod once he becomes eligible, while the currently-on-the ballot Rolen has been making strong headway toward Cooperstown. If and when both players are enshrined, which non-Hall of Fame third baseman will rank highest in JAWS?

The answer is Graig Nettles, who ranks 12th (11th if you don’t include Edgar Martinez). In terms of WAR, Nettles (65.7) ranks right in front of Martinez (65.5), and close behind Rolen (69.9). Beltré (84.1) is comfortably ahead of all three.

Should Nettles be in the Hall of Fame? His accolades and accomplishments include 390 home runs, six All-Star berths, two Gold Gloves — he’d have won more were it not for Brooks Robinson — and a pair of World Series rings. All told, he played in five Fall Classics. Back when Jay Jaffe was writing for Sports Illustrated, my esteemed colleague tabbed Nettles as the most-overlooked player at his position when it comes to Hall of Fame worthiness.

Meanwhile, was Beltré better than Robinson? A clear majority of the people who voted in a Twitter poll I ran yesterday feel that he was. Of the 337 people who weighed in, 61.7% opted for Beltré, while only 38.3% sided with the legendary Baltimore Orioles Hall of Famer. Read the rest of this entry »

Amid a dearth of baseball news, the Nationals took a starring role this week, not only via the retirement of franchise cornerstone Ryan Zimmerman but also the report that before the lockout, the team offered Juan Soto a 13-year, $350 million extension. While we’ve now seen nine deals of at least $300 million in recent years — not to mention a report of a pending extension offer to Soto in the wake of Fernando Tatis Jr.’s $340-million deal last March — the price tag produced the usual sticker shock on social media, as well as incredulity given that the slugger declined it.

Via ESPN Deportes’ Enrique Rojas, the 23-year-old Soto confirmed the news, saying, “Yes, they made me an offer a few months ago, before the lockout. But right now, my agents and I think the best option is to go year by year and wait for free agency. My agent, Scott Boras, has control over the situation.” Read the rest of this entry »

The Yankees starting rotation sits in an odd position while rosters are frozen during the owner’s lockout. No one can question Gerrit Cole’s dominance as the team ace, but after him, there are some real concerns about the health of the rest of the rotation. Luis Severino returned from Tommy John surgery to pitch in four relief appearances in 2021 plus one additional outing in the American League Wild Card game. Jameson Taillon’s season ended prematurely after he tore a ligament in his ankle, and his previous health history isn’t exactly spotless. It’s hard to know what to expect from Nestor Cortes or Domingo Germán either. That leaves Jordan Montgomery as the presumed number two starter behind Cole.

Montgomery missed nearly two seasons after his own Tommy John surgery back in 2018. He returned to the mound late in 2019 and struggled through the abbreviated ’20 season. Last year, he put together his most complete season of his short career, posting a career-best 3.69 FIP while accumulating 3.3 WAR. It was a solid performance in his first true full season since his rookie campaign back in 2017.

Ignoring his four-inning cup of coffee in 2019, Montgomery posted the highest strikeout rate of his career last season. Nearly all of those punch outs are fueled by two phenomenal secondary pitches. Both his changeup and curveball feature whiff rates around 40% and he uses both to dispatch batters. When the count gets to two strikes, he throws one of those two pitches over 60% of the time and opposing batters can’t help but swing and miss. Read the rest of this entry »